Powered By Blogger

17 October, 2025


 Russia’s strategy for a permanent state of hybrid war
By Stefan Wolff
The Conversation
“Drone incursions into Poland, fighter jets in Estonian airspace, election interference in Romania and Moldova, and “little green men” (soldiers of unconfirmed origin) in Estonia. These are just a few examples of the tactics Russia has been using in the past few weeks.”
“They appear to be part of a much broader strategy variously referred to as the “Gerasimov doctrine”, non-linear war or new-generation warfare. What lies behind these terms is the “weaponisation of everything”, Moscow’s strategy to reshape international order. …”


“Russia’s permanent test on Europe.”

The Conversation





Estonia spots Russian troops without insignia near border

Moscow Times | RFERL |other sources

“In Estonia's Setomaa parish, Road 178 takes an unusual route between two villages, crossing through an approximately 1-kilometer-wide strip of Russian territory dubbed the 'Saatse Boot’. This geographic oddity is a remnant of the Soviet annexation of

Estonia during World War II.”

“The armed men had been spotted in the Saatse Boot, a small protrusion of Russian territory surrounded by Estonia on three sides, last Friday.”

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/10/15/role-of-armed-russians-spotted-near-estonian-border-still-unclear-defense-minister-says-a90816 

https://www.rferl.org/a/estonia-russia-border-road-close-masked-soldiers-saatse-boot/33558567.html

https://kyivindependent.com/estonia-spots-russian-little-green-men-near-border-officials-say-not-a-new-tactic/

https://www.dw.com/en/russian-troops-seen-on-estonian-border-raise-nato-concerns/video-74365736





Map: RFERL Graphics



Saatse saapa tõkete paigaldamist jälgisid Venemaa piirivalvurid

Postimees

“Mõlema saapa läbisõiduteede otstesse paigaldatakse ajutised aiad ja betoontõkked ning paralleelselt alustatakse ka püsiva piiritaristu rajamisega. Suure saapa läbisõit on juba suletud ja olemas on ka alternatiivne ümbersõit. See on praegu korraldatud Värska, Treski, Matsuri ja Sesniki kaudu. Väike saabas suletakse paari päeva jooksul, kui transpordiamet on korrastanud sealse teelõigu, mida on võimalik kasutada ajutise ümbersõiduteena.”

https://lounapostimees.postimees.ee/8344767/fotod-saatse-saapa-tokete-paigaldamist-jalgisid-venemaa-piirivalvurid



“Valitsus: Saatse saapa teed jäävad suletuks.”

ERR





Road through Saatse Boot to remain permanently closed

Postimees

“Following last week's events in the Saatse Boot, the Police and Border Guard Board (PPA) proposed to the government that the transit route through the area be permanently closed. The government has decided that, given the current security situation, transit through Russian territory will not be reopened.”

"Estonia is currently building a new road in the area that would not pass through Russian territory in order to prevent such incidents."

https://news.postimees.ee/8344099/road-through-saatse-boot-to-remain-permanently-closed





______________



The Coffee Club:

Consider buying me a cup of 

coffee if you find the newsletter 

useful. Visit this PayPal link. Aitäh!

https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/EstoNews100



EstoNews On-Line:

https://estonewsoftheweek.blogspot.com/



Cover Photo:

https://lounapostimees.postimees.ee/8344767/fotod-saatse-saapa-tokete-paigaldamist-jalgisid-venemaa-piirivalvurid?gallery=362580&image=17216842



______________





Eestlaste söögiisu mõjutab ports ainulaadseid geenivariante

Novaator

“Tartu Ülikooli teadlased on tuvastanud uusi seoseid, mis aitavad paremini mõista, miks mõned inimesed võtavad kergemini kaalus juurde ja miks mõnel on täiskõhutunnet raskem saavutada.”

https://novaator.err.ee/1609831620/eestlaste-soogiisu-mojutab-ports-ainulaadseid-geenivariante





Estonia's Major Military Modernization Initiative

Israel Defence 

“Estonia’s ambitious defense modernization opens new opportunities for international defense suppliers seeking long-term strategic partnerships in the Baltics.”

“Estonia’s market characteristics make it a valuable target for international defense companies:

Strong Economic Fundamentals; Comprehensive Modernization; Regional Expansion Potential."

https://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/node/66548





Finnish interceptors may soon fly in Estonian airspace

Estonian World Review | ERR

“The countries sending their fighter jets to NATO missions have so many rules of their own that they cannot effectively defend their airspace, writes Yle. Finland is now changing the restrictions it has imposed on its air force.”

"I know that Finland has started the process that Finnish fighters can also use Estonian airspace. In Finland, there has been a rule that Finns do not fly into our airspace - it is not our rule," said Estonia's Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur at the NATO Defense Ministers' meeting.”

"Estonian airspace does not belong only to Estonia but also to NATO.”

https://www.eesti.ca/finnish-interceptors-may-soon-fly-in-estonian-airspace/article62006

https://news.err.ee/1609830402/yle-finnish-fighter-jets-may-soon-be-able-to-fly-in-estonian-airspace





______________



“Former Finnish Military Intelligence Chief: Estonians Would Open Fire Immediately if Russia Crossed the Border.”

The Baltic Sentinel


“Estonia to offer public drone training as Russian hybrid threats grow.”

TVP


“Välisminister Tsahkna kehtestas sanktsiooni Narva muuseumi direktori Maria Smorževskihh-Smirnova tagakiusajatele.”

Välisministeerium


“Tallinn bans Russian prosecutor and judge who sentenced Narva museum head to 10 years in prison.”

Euromaidan Press


“Estonia’s women volunteer for defense.”

Christian Science Monitor


“Tech giant Amazon opens office in Estonia.”

ERR


“Estonia elected to the UN Human Rights Council.”

Estonian World


______________







Around the Baltic Sea



EU’s Kallas unveils 'flagship' defence projects to counter Russian threat

France24

“Danger will not disappear even when the war in Ukraine ends. It is clear we need to toughen our defences against Russia," European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told a news conference."

“The Commission said two "flagships" were particularly urgent – the European Drone Defence Initiative, previously known as a "drone wall", and Eastern Flank Watch, which aims to ‘fortify the EU’s Eastern borders across land, air and sea’."

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20251016-eu-unveils-flagship-defence-projects-to-counter-russian-threat





EU to be ready for war with Russia by 2030

Politico Europe

“The Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030 is a sign of the EU's growing role in military affairs, a reaction to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine and U.S. President Donald Trump’s unclear commitment to European security.”

“The document goes point by point through a series of priorities. One of its main objectives is to fill EU capability gaps in nine areas: air and missile defense, enablers, military mobility, artillery systems, AI and cyber, missile and ammunition, drones and anti-drones, ground combat, and maritime.”

“The draft also takes pains to insist that the EU will coordinate closely with NATO. The alliance and some national capitals are worried about Brussels setting up a parallel defense structure that will complicate war plans rather than smoothly integrating with NATO.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ukraine-russia-ready-for-war-2030/





NATO Meets to Solidify Deterrence Against Russian Aggression

The Moscow Times

"NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte struck a bullish note at the end of a meeting of the alliance’s defense ministers, saying its military and 25-fold economic superiority would be effective in deterring Russian attacks on the continent.”

“Let's not overstate what Russia is capable of,” he said at a press conference in response to a question from The Moscow Times. “We know that their fighter jet pilots are famously not successful in steering these fighter jets, and their captains do not know how to lower an anchor.”

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/10/16/nato-meets-to-solidify-deterrence-against-russian-aggression-as-tensions-rise-a90822




____________



“Euroopa vajab paremat tuumaheidutust, tegutsegu Valges Majas kes tahes.”

Diplomaatia


“Swedish military tails 'limping' Russian sub in the Baltic Sea.”

Radio Sweden


“Russian cyber-attacks against Nato states up by 25% in a year.”

The Guardian


“Suicide rate in Lithuania remains one of the highest in the EU.”

Euronews


“Finns' confidence in the future drops.”

Yle


“In Wartime, NATO Would Target Drone Launch Capabilities, Not Individual Drones.”

The Baltic Sentinel


“Fourth Estonian-Latvian power grid connection planned. Saaremaa objects.”

BNN


“Canadian Air Force pilots practice debut road landings in Estonia.”

ERR


“Lithuania designates 26 restricted airspace zones to strengthen security.”

LRT


“Finland watches Baltic neighbour close border.”

Yle


“Sweden, Estonia, and Finland pledged contributions on Wednesday to increase spending on purchases of US weapons for Ukraine."

The Guardian


“First snow of the season falls in northwest Finland.”

Yle



____________






Putin’s Faltering War



Russian Anti-War Grassroots Initiatives in Europe

ICDS

“Russian anti-war grassroots initiatives in Europe largely originated from small groups of emigrants who, in 2021, organised rallies in support of Alexei Navalny. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 sparked a wave of activism by Russian immigrants. Since then, experts have begun to question whether these communities could play a role in Russia’s future transformations.”

https://icds.ee/en/not-quite-agents-of-change-russian-anti-war-grassroots-initiatives-in-europe/





Putin Is Not Winning

By Andrew Ryvkin

The Atlantic

"Putin, a ruthless septuagenarian bent on restoring Russia to its imperial glory, is simply too good a villain for Western politicians and media commentators to ignore. Casting him as omniscient and unstoppable creates a clear story amid the chaos of global affairs.”

“Today, Russia’s armed forces are bogged down. There are no tanks rolling toward Kyiv, no lightning offensives seizing regions, no major cities under siege. Russia does not have air supremacy, or even superiority, in Ukraine. Putin has made his objectives painfully clear. But far from seizing all of Ukraine, Russia has not even fully conquered the regions that it has written into its constitution."

“A rule of Russian propaganda is that if Putin’s not winning, he’s simply out of the picture. It’s one of the reasons Russia’s commander in chief almost never visits the occupied Ukrainian territories. Doing so would remind everyone where his war against Western hegemony really stands: stuck near Pokrovsk, a town with a prewar population of 70,000 that Russia hasn’t managed to take in two years of fighting.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/10/overestimating-putin-russia-ukraine-war/684518/?gift=o2wkbHXnr9SeGq0rtIpjeFay5eJAWktDm56T6mfmhvo&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share



“Putin’s War in Ukraine Soon will Exceed Length of Stalin’s Great Patriotic War.”

By Paul Goble


“You can never expect them to tell the truth.”

Meduza


“Putin Has a New Super App to Monitor Russians.”

The Atlantic


“Crowds in St Petersburg sing about overthrowing Putin.”

The Telegraph


“Interview: Anne Applebaum.”

By Caolan Robertson





Trump-Putin phone call dims Kyiv’s hopes for U.S. Tomahawk missiles

The Guardian

“Putin’s surprise phone call to Donald Trump on Thursday appeared to undercut Ukrainian hopes of receiving Tomahawk missiles as Volodymyr Zelenskyy heads to Washington to meet the US president and discuss the issue.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/17/trump-putin-phone-call-sinks-kyiv-ukraine-hopes-for-us-tomahawk-missiles



“Has Trump fallen into Putin’s trap – again?”

The Spectator


“Russians Want Peace, But on Their Own Terms.”

Riddle


“U.S. president to meet with Putin in Budapest.”

Politico





Russian Targets within Range of Tomahawk Cruise Missiles

ISW Map

“Military objects include permanent bases, unit headquarters, storage depots, arsenals, fuel depots, warehouses, radio installations, command centers, air defense sites, air bases, repair bases, weapons factories, training grounds, and other similar objects.”

https://understandingwar.org/map/russian-military-and-security-service-objects-within-range-of-tomahawk-cruise-missiles-in-the-russian-federation-control-of-terrain-assessment-as-of-october-3-2025/







____________

_______

__