Newsletter will return in 2022.
Puhkus kuni 2022.
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COVID Cases in the Baltics
- 647 in Estonia
- 934 in Latvia
- 1,879 in Lithuania
(BNN - 16. Dec)
Europeans Expect COVID to Have Long-Term Effects on Their Travel Behaviours
(SchengenVisaInfo)
“Close to eight in ten EU citizens (76 per cent) expect that the COVID-19 pandemic will have some type of long-term effects on their travel behaviour.”
“Estonia to decide on use of Janssen booster doses before year's end.” - ERR
“Lithuania Confirms First Omicron Infection Cases.” - SchengenVisaInfo
“Finland confirms tougher entry rules in bid to rein in omicron.” - Helsinki Times
“34 Omicron cases in Finland so far.” - Yle
Friday 17. Dec.
Aastalõpuintervjuu: Peaminister Kaja Kallas
(Postimees)
“Aasta 2021 läheb ajalukku muu hulgas sellega, et Eesti sai endale esimese naispeaministri. Kaja Kallase (Reformierakond) graafik on tihe, ometi ei pea ta oma esimest tööaastat raskeks, pigem intensiivseks.”
Marko Mihkelsoni hinnangul tahab Venemaa hävitada NATO
(ERR)
“Venemaa on oma retoorika oluliselt karmimaks muutnud – jutt ei käi enam Ukrainast ja Ukraina tulevikust Venemaa kontekstis, vaid sellest, mida Venemaa tahab. Ta tahab saavutada täieliku vetoõiguse kogu Euroopa julgeolekuruumis. Ta tahab sisuliselt NATO hävitada," rääkis Mihkelson kolmapäeval ETV "Esimeses stuudios”."
https://www.err.ee/1608437141/mihkelsoni-hinnangul-tahab-venemaa-havitada-nato
Russia-Ukraine crisis: where are Putin’s troops and equipment?
(The Guardian)
“Russia has forward-deployed hundreds of tanks, self-propelled artillery and even short-range ballistic missiles from as far away as Siberia to within striking range of Ukraine’s borders. US intelligence has said Russia could launch an offensive by the end of January with as many as 100 battalion tactical groups (BTGs), comprising an estimated 175,000 troops. Current estimates say Russia has about 50 BTGs in the border region, already a significant force that could overrun Ukrainian defensive positions.’
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“Russia’s rhetoric has grown more belligerent. Vladimir Putin has demanded legal guarantees that Ukraine will never join Nato or host its missile strike systems, concessions he is not likely to receive. He is also short on time. His troops cannot remain out of garrison indefinitely. By late winter he will probably have to launch an attack or draw down his forces in what would look like a retreat.”
Russia demands NATO leave eastern Europe
(Deutsche Welle)
“Russia has released a series of security demands to NATO, including a veto on the alliance's expansion. It is calling for an immediate dialogue, but NATO members aren't likely to acquiesce to Moscow's wish list.”
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-demands-nato-leave-eastern-europe-limit-missile-deployment/a-60173879
Eight-point draft treaty was released by Russia’s foreign ministry
(The Guardian)
“Those proposals are likely to be viewed extremely negatively by Nato countries, in particular Poland and the Baltic states. They have warned that Russia is attempting to re-establish a sphere of influence in the region and view the document as proof Moscow is seeking to limit their sovereignty.”
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“A senior US official said on Friday that the Kremlin knows that some parts of its proposals were “unacceptable”.”
—
“Nato head Jens Stoltenberg, has already ruled out any agreements …”
“Estonian Foreign affairs committee chair: Russia attempting to destroy NATO.” - ERR
“Russia broadens security demands from West, seeking to curb U.S. and NATO influence on borders.” - Washington Post
“Russia Lays Out Demands for a Sweeping New Security Deal. NATO officials immediately rejected it.” - New York Times
“Moscow lists demands for defusing Ukraine tensions.” (that Moscow initiated) - BBC
Ukrainian crisis talks are reminiscent of ‘Munich 1938’
By Pekka Vanttinen, Euractive
“Direct talks between the five biggest NATO members and Russia on the Ukrainian crisis are causing nervousness in Estonia. Negotiations over the heads of small nations are evoking memories of the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany.”
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“According to media reports, Marko Mihkelson, chairman of the parliament’s foreign affairs committee, compared the current atmosphere to another historical handshake.
“This smells like Munich 1938. The one who is threatening us and has turned guns against us is being calmed down,” said Mihkelson in an interview with Estonian television, referring to the agreement between British PM Neville Chamberlain and Adolf Hitler permitting German annexation of the Sudetenland, in Czechoslovakia. According to him, Russia should not be given a veto on European security. In his radio programme on Tuesday, a former Estonian ambassador to NATO and Finland, Harri Tiido said that Moscow has never appreciated compliance, the approach opted by the West during the war in Georgia. What followed was the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.”
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“Estonia’s ex-president Toomas Hendrik Ilves also commented on the matter. He told the Estonian Radio News that NATO-Russia talks are missing a big and militarily strong East European player. His choice for the seat would be Poland.”
NATO saatis välja öise hoiatuse Ukraina kohta
(Postimees)
“Kuigi Brüsselis on kell tund vähem kui Tallinnas, on siiski üsna tavatu kellaaeg avalduseks, mis just (kell 22.30 Brüsseli, kell 23.30 Tallinna aja järgi) NATO peakorterist saabus. See puudutab Ukrainat.”
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“Me oleme sügavalt mures märkimisväärse, mitte provotseeritud ja õigustamatu Vene vägede koondumise pärast Ukraina piiridele viimastel kuudel ning lükkame tagasi Venemaa valeväited Ukraina ja NATO provokatsioonidest,» algab selle tekst. «Me kutsume Venemaad koheselt pingeid leevendama, kasutama diplomaatilisi kanaleid ning täitma oma rahvusvahelisi lubadusi sõjaliste tegevuste läbipaistvuse osas. …”
“EL hoiatas Venemaad tõsiste tagajärgede eest seoses Ukrainaga.”
“NATO allies urge Russia to withdraw forces from Ukrainian border.” - Politico
“USA kaitse-eelarves on Balti riikide toetuseks 175 miljonit dollarit.” - ERR
Thursday 16. Dec.
USA kaitse-eelarves on Balti riikide toetuseks 175 miljonit dollarit
(ERR)
“USA parlamendi ülemkoda kinnitas kolmapäeval Ameerika Ühendriikide 2022. aasta kaitse-eraldiste seaduse, milles muuhulgas nähakse ette 175 miljoni dollari eraldamine Balti riikide sõjalise kaitse tugevdamiseks. … Dokumendis märgitakse, et USA on alates 2018. aastast eraldanud Balti riikidele kokku ligi 500 miljponi dollari väärtuses julgeolekuabi, muuhulgas õhukaitseks, olukorrateadlikkuse tõstmiseks merel, laskemoona soetamiseks, tankitõrje võimekuse suurendamiseks, eriüksuste arendamiseks ning muuks otstarbeks.”
https://www.err.ee/1608438149/usa-kaitse-eelarves-on-balti-riikide-toetuseks-175-miljonit-dollarit
Vene suursaadik: meie suhetes on kõvasti arenguruumi
(ERR)
“Ametist lahkuv Venemaa suursaadik Eestis Aleksandr Petrov märkis kolmapäevasel pressikonverentsil, et Eesti-Venemaa suhted pole kaugeltki need, mis võiksid olla ning tõi esile diplomaatide vastastikkuse väljasaatmise.”
https://www.err.ee/1608437075/vene-suursaadik-meie-suhetes-on-kovasti-arenguruumi
“Russian ambassador: Much room for development in Estonian-Russian relations.” - ERR
Lithuania Closes Its Embassy in Beijing
(Transitions | NPR)
“Lithuania announced yesterday that it had closed its embassy and removed all its diplomats from Beijing in a spat with China over the recognition of Taiwan.”
https://tol.org/client/article/lithuania-closes-its-embassy-in-beijing.html
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Vladimir Putin declaration: There is Russian military presence in Ukraine
(The Guardian)
“Speaking on Thursday during the Russian president’s annual press conference, Putin says for the first time that Russian military personnel are operating in Ukraine.”
“Rostovi kohtu otsus osutas Vene vägedele Donbassis.” - ERR
“On the Ukraine frontline: 'Only the dead aren't afraid’.” - The Guardian
“As Russian soldiers continue to amass near the Ukrainian border shots are already being fired.” - The Guardian
“Russia deploys Buk air defense system near Ukrainian border.” - Defense
“Don’t Let Russia Fool You About the Minsk Agreements.” - CEPA
Venemaa edastas USA-le julgeolekutagatiste nõude
(ERR)
“Venemaa ütles kolmapäeval, et andis NATO laienemist puudutavate julgeolekutagatiste ettepaneku üle Moskvas visiidil viibivale USA abivälisministrile. … Putin nõudis eelmisel nädalal virtuaalkohtumisel USA presidendi Joe Bideniga, et lääs annaks kirjaliku tagatise, et Ukrainast ei saa NATO liige. Vene välisministeerium avaldas pärast kõnelusi nimekirja nõudmistest, mille hulgas soovi, et NATO tühistaks ametlikult 2008. aasta otsuse avada uksed Gruusiale ja Ukrainale.”
https://www.err.ee/1608436799/venemaa-edastas-usa-le-julgeolekutagatiste-noude
Kremlin wants a legal agreement that alliance will not expand into ‘disputed’ territory
(Guardian)
“Vladimir Putin has told Boris Johnson that he wants immediate talks to secure clear legal agreements that Nato will not expand eastwards. According to a Kremlin readout of the two leaders’ phone call on Monday, Putin said talks were needed to discuss Nato’s future intentions, and to clarify Ukraine’s plans for the east of the country. …”
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“Privately, leaders in the west remain confused about Putin’s intentions.”
“Putin Reiterates Need For 'Immediate' Talks With NATO On Security Guarantees.” - RFERL
“Russia Hands Draft Security Pacts to US, Expects Quick Talks.” - AP
Interview: Prime Minister Kaja Kallas
(Bloomberg Markets video)
“… Europe shouldn't wait for Russia to make a move on Ukraine, and that the block will send a clear deterrent - Europe ''will react''. She also spoke about the controversial Nordstream 2 pipeline, calling it a ''geopolitical project'' that will only give Russia a lot more power over Europe.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHBvb0RADJQ
“Germany urged to use Nordstream 2 pipeline threat to deter Russia over Ukraine.” - The Guardian
“Ukraine and Estonia are stepping up border protection cooperation.” - Ukrinform
EU Must Make Strong Signal of Deterrence to Russia, Estonia Says
(Bloomberg)
“EU leaders meeting in Brussels for a two-day summit are discussing a potential response to a Russian military buildup on Ukraine’s borders, which Kyiv and Washington have warned could be a precursor to an invasion. Some larger members of the bloc, including Germany and France, are resisting detailing painful economic measures that they’ll unleash if Russian aggression escalates.”
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“Other member states, however, argue that publicly floating sanctions would better deter Russian President Vladimir Putin. Prime Minister Kaja Kallas of Estonia, a former Soviet Republic that joined the EU and NATO after the collapse of the Iron Curtain, said both alliances shouldn’t take any chances.”
—
“Are they bluffing or are they really planning a move?” she said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Wednesday. “In any case we shouldn’t wait for a move, but send a clear signal of deterrence that says: ‘Don’t think about this because we will react.’”
Back in the USSR: Are The Former Republics Better Off 30 Years Later?
(Russia Matters)
https://russiamatters.org/blog/back-ussr-are-residents-former-republics-better-30-years-later
EU ministers debate ways to shield Ukraine from Russia
(ABCNews)
“European Union foreign ministers have been weighing ways to counter the threat of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine and what measures to take if Moscow decides to send its troops across the border.”
“The West Must Deter Russia or Accept Defeat.” - Foreign Policy
Explainer: Why Is Russia's Putin So Focused on Ukraine?
(Reuters via U.S.News)
“With the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union, Russia lost control of 14 former republics it had previously dominated, but the loss of Ukraine was the bitterest pill. … The two had been linked since the 9th century when Kyiv became the capital of the ancient Russian state of Rus; in 988 its ruler, Grand Prince Vladimir, introduced Orthodox Christianity to Russia. From 1654 Russia and Ukraine were united by treaty under the rule of the Russian tsar. The two countries speak closely related languages and later formed, with Belarus, the Slav core of the Soviet Union. Many Russians feel a connection with Ukraine that they do not feel towards other former Soviet states in the Baltics, Caucasus and Central Asia.”
Swedish commander: U.S. should add troops in Europe if Russia-Ukraine crisis deepens
(Politico)
“Gen. Micael Bydén, the Swedish supreme commander, … didn’t define what he meant by that, but responded affirmatively when asked if he’d like to see more U.S. troops in his neighborhood should Russia take the step of once again invading Ukraine.
“If the situation — I wouldn’t say ‘require’ because that’s the wrong word — but if the situation would worsen, I do believe it would be good to have a bigger footprint.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/16/swedish-commander-us-troops-russia-ukraine-crisis-525135
Wednesday 15. Dec.
Don’t fall into Putin’s trap, Estonian PM Kaja Kallas warns the West
(Politico)
“Russian military pressure cannot be allowed to influence who can join the European Union and NATO.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/estonia-pm-eu-nato-putin-influence/
Estonia's Soomaa region dugout boat culture added to UNESCO protection list
(ERR)
“The expanded dugout boat is a canoe-like boat made by hollowing out a single tree, usually aspen, with expanded sides and a shallow base. Until the 1960s, the boats were used for daily transport on rivers and fishing but now their use has changed and become more recreational. …”
Estonia in winter: into the wilds by canoe and ‘bog shoe’
(The Guardian)
[The article’s author visits Soomaa national park.]
Mere steps from the EU, hundreds of migrants remain stranded in Belarusian warehouse
(CBC)
“In mid-November, around 2,000 migrants were moved into the warehouse facility as temperatures dropped and tensions rose at the section of border between Belarus and Poland. Since then, hundreds have flown back to Syria and Iraq. Many chose to board government-chartered flights, while others were deported from Belarus.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/belarus-poland-migrants-warehouse-1.6283478
Tuesday 14. Dec.
Estonian President Alar Karis will not attend Beijing Olympics amid international boycott
(BNN)
“The Estonian President quoted political reasons for the decision and added that heads of state of neighbouring countries would also avoid the Beijing Olympics. … In a reaction, a Chinese spokesperson commented: «Nobody cares whether they come or not».”
Russia saber rattling gets the West talking. Is a deal with NATO next?
(Christian Science Monitor)
“The Russians claim, with considerable evidence, that former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev was given strong verbal assurances that NATO would move “not one inch” eastward. Now, Vladimir Putin seems to believe that it’s finally time to get that in writing.”
“Kremlin wants legal agreement that alliance will not expand into disputed territory.” - The Guardian
“G-7 warns Moscow of ‘massive consequences’ if Russia invades Ukraine.” - Washington Post
“Ukraine Says Russia Blocking Most Of Sea Of Azov.” - RFERL
Vladimir Putin, Emotional Chess Master
(Washington Monthly)
“You can almost picture Vladimir Putin, perpetual president of Russia, hunched over a chessboard the shape of Europe, divining strategies many steps ahead of his fractious, ambivalent opponents. A gas pipeline here, troops and tanks there, propaganda everywhere to set the stage for the 21st century’s Great Russian Expansion.
—
“He is a skillful player. He reads the other side, detects its weaknesses, studies its patterns of resolve and hesitation. He appears coldly rational. Yet some who watch him closely see something beyond careful calculation. That is especially so when the issue is Ukraine, now in his military’s cross hairs. Putin’s attachment to Ukraine often takes on emotional, spiritual, and metaphysical overtones.”
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2021/12/14/vladimir-putin-emotional-chess-master/
The Role of Cossacks in Russia’s Soft Power Toolkit
(Ponars Eurasia)
“The term “Cossack” refers to a few distinct groups. While there is considerable dispute over the origins of the label, there is a clear division between those who identify as “free” and “service” Cossacks. The “free” Cossacks are those who consider themselves as “ancestrally” Cossack and claim the label from birth. The free Cossacks live mostly in Southern Russia and Ukraine, including the lands around the city of Rostov on the Don. Estimates suggest there are as many as 5 million such Cossacks across Eurasia, which makes them potentially the largest unrecognized “nation” (narod) in that space. The “service” Cossacks originated under Tsarist regimes and saw individuals (irrespective of their ancestral ties to the group) recruited to perform what would today be called paramilitary functions in exchange for privileges such as lower taxes. Cossacks were often used by imperial forces to settle border regions as a kind of force-in-residence.”
https://www.ponarseurasia.org/the-role-of-cossacks-in-russias-soft-power-toolkit/
100.4 F (38 C) temperature in Siberia in 2020 smashed Arctic heat record
(CBC, Canada)
“The UN weather agency said Tuesday it has certified a 38 C (100.4 F) reading in the Russian town of Verkhoyansk last year as the highest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic, the latest in a string of "alarm bells about our changing climate.”
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“The World Meteorological Organization said the temperature "more befitting the Mediterranean than the Arctic" was registered on June 20, 2020, during a heat wave that swept across Siberia and stretched north of the Arctic Circle.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/wmo-heat-record-1.6284901
“WMO: lõppeval aastal püstitati Arktikas uus temperatuurirekord.” - Novaator
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