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10 February, 2017




✔ Estonia ‘not afraid’ to be on Nato frontline. - President Kaljulaid

✔  Kaliningrad on Its Way to Becoming ‘Russia’s Crimea?’ - Paul Goble

✔ Russia’s 'Zapad 2017' military exercise in Belarus is scheduled for September. Reports claim it will be Russia’s largest to date, and some fear that it could turn into an occupation of Belarus, which could threaten next-door Lithuania. - Reuters

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 Friday 10. February
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✔ Eesti rahvusvahelises julgeolekukeskkonnas 2017
(Teabeamet - PDF, 64 pgs.)
—
✔ Report: International Security and Estonia 2017
(English version - PDF, 64 pgs.)



- President Kaljulaid: Heidutus ei saa kunagi valmis
(ERR)
"Reedel kogunes president Kersti Kaljulaiu kutsel riigikaitse nĂ”ukogu, kus kaitseminister ja kaitsevĂ€gede juhataja andsid ĂŒlevaate tĂ€iendavate NATO liitlasvĂ€gede saabumisest Eestisse. President sĂ”nas, et liitlassĂ”durite saabumine tugevdab Eesti heidutust oluliselt, kuid heidutus ei saa tegelikult kunagi valmis."
--
- Estonia ‘not afraid’ to be on Nato frontline: Kaljulaid
(Financial Times)
“We don’t see ourselves as consumers of security but we see ourselves as equal allies. It proves to me that there is no need for us to be afraid,” she said. “We are not afraid.”
—
“I don’t want to sound like I’m a special type of Russia hater,” she said. “There are very few heads of state in Europe that would not like to have very good relations with Russia. But the other side is what it is: it is unpredictable and doesn’t respect its obligations. 
 she sees little chance of the Baltics being sold out. 
 But in an oblique warning to Mr Trump, she added: “Once you start doing deals, you never know where you will end.”
—
- Kaljulaid in Riga stresses need to preserve unity of countries that 'think alike'
(Baltic Times)
—
- Russia is currently the only threat to Estonia
(Postimees)



- U.S. Republican Senators to Trump: Putin is Not Your Friend
(Politico-Europe)
"We must never pursue cooperation with Russia at the expense of our fundamental interests of defending our allies and promoting our values,’ the eight lawmakers wrote."
(Letter in Full)



- Estonia Is Training Civilians To Fight
(Huffington Post)
"The civilian volunteer force is part of Estonia’s “porcupine strategy” to make it as indigestible as possible. With memories of Soviet occupation still fresh, Estonians are fiercely dedicated to contributing to the country’s defense." 
—
- Estonia sees crucial roles for U.S., NATO despite Trump doubts
(Washington Times)



✔ 'Zapad 2017’: Russia’s largest exercise ever 
(Delfi-Lithuania)
[Scheduled to be held in Belarus in September 2017.]
--
✔ Baltic states seek more NATO help ahead of Russian exercise
(Reuters | RFERL)
—



✔ Zapad 2013 Report: Lessons for Baltic Regional Security
(Jamestown Foundation - PDF)
"Zapad 2013 was a wide-scale military exercise carried out by the Russian and Belarusian military forces in September 2013. The joint maneuvers, which were held in Belarus and western Russia, simulated an incursion by foreign-backed “terrorist” groups originating from the Baltic States."



- Is Kaliningrad on Its Way to Becoming ‘Russia’s Crimea?’
(Jamestown Foundation - Paul Goble)
“
 Moscow analysts have occasionally worried that the West might respond by trying to seize the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad in revenge. Russian fears are that the West will exploit Kaliningrad’s geographic isolation, unhappiness among its population and even among some of its officials, and the interests of neighboring countries to recover territory that Soviet leader Joseph Stalin took in 1945.”
—
"But three developments in the last week suggest that Moscow may be more worried about the future of Kaliningrad now than ever before 
"



- Kas Konstantin PÀts oli Àraandja vÔi rahva pÀÀstja?
(Delfi video)







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Thursday 9. February
_________________




- Presidendilt saab teenetemÀrgi 113 inimest
(Postimees | ERR)
"TeenetemÀrgid on tunnustus Eesti inimestele ja meie toetajatele vÀlisriikides nende sihikindluse eest oma tegevuses ning lojaalsuses pÔhimÔtetele, millele toetub kaasaegne Eesti - avatusele ja demokraatiale, teadmistele ja ettevÔtlikkusele, hoolimisele ja mÀrkamisele."
—
—
--
--
- Riigivapi II klassi ordeni on pÀlvinud kÔik endised peaministrid
(ERR)





- Uuring: millist töötajat on aastal 2024 Eestis vaja, millist mitte?
(ERR)
"OSKA tööturu ĂŒlevaatest selgub, et aastaks 2024 on Eestis pea 50 000 tööealist vĂ€hem kui praegu. JĂ€rjest enam on vaja kĂ”rgharidusega spetsialiste ning vĂ€hem lihtsa töö tegijaid."



- Neeme JĂ€rvi, Kalle Kasemaa, Lembit Ulfsak win Estonia’s lifetime achievement award for culture
(ERR)



- NATO Allies Lock In U.S. Support For Stand-Off With Russia
(Huffington Post)
"Immediately after Donald Trump was elected, U.S. diplomats urged Lithuania to rush through an agreement to keep American troops on its soil, reflecting alarm that the new, Russia-friendly U.S. president might try to stop more deployments in Europe."
--
"The agreement was signed just a few days before Trump’s inauguration, according to a document from the Lithuanian defense ministry, and became the first step locking the new U.S. president into a NATO strategy to deter Russia in Poland and the Baltics, following Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea."
--
- NATO releases new guide for international cyber laws
(The Hill)
"NATO on Wednesday released the first major revision to the Tallinn Manual, the closest thing there is to a rulebook for nation-led cyber operations."
—
- NATO in the Trump Era: A Conversation with Jamie Shea
(International Policy Digest)



- Trump kohtub 25. mail NATO riigipeade ja valitsusjuhtidega
(ERR)



- Finnish-language radical Islamic propaganda spreading
(Yle)
“Finnish security police have identified a Finnish-language blog disseminating propaganda by the extremist Islamic State organisation. The blog has been used to share content such as speeches by IS leaders as well as texts from the group’s online paper, translated into Finnish."







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Wednesday 8. February
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- Baltimaade riigipead kohtuvad MĂŒncheni konverentsil USA asepresidendiga
(ERR)
“
 kohtuvad sel kuul MĂŒnchenis Mike Pence’iga."
—
- Baltic leaders to meet with US vice president in Munich in February
(The Baltic Times)
--
- Maailma ajakirjad vÔistlevad Trumpi-esikaantega
(Delfi)



- Piirangud Vene topeltkodakondsusega inimestele on Soome kaitsevÀes arvatust rohkem levinud
(ERR)



- Estonian, US soldiers on three-day winter march through Northeastern Estonia
(ERR)
"The Winter March will take the U.S. and Estonian soldiers from Voka to Narva.”
—
- Combat readiness, staff, equipment of Estonian Defence Forces has improved
(ERR | Delfi | Eesti PĂ€evaleht)
—
—
--
- Lithuanian President Says NATO Deployment Sends 'Clear Message' Of Unity
(RFERL)



- US Secret Service trains Estonia to handle cyber threats
(NewsOk)
“
 members of the U.S. agency held a week-long training course "to share best practices" ahead of the six-month presidency that starts in July."



- Finland: Extremism and false news increasingly common
(Helsinki Times)
"The Ministry of the Interior's latest overview examined developments with ramifications for the security situation in Finland in 2016. The latest report draws particular attention to the security threat posed by the Nordic Resistance Movement, which previously operated as the Finnish Resistance Movement in Finland. The organization changed its name in an attempt to to create an image of itself as a more united, larger and influential organization than it is 
"






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Tuesday 7. February
_________________


- The Only Way to Beat Russia in a War Over the Baltics
(The National Interest)
“ 
 the Baltic states are looking back at the first conventional war of the 21st century between Georgia and Russia. Georgia lost half its tank force of around 75 total committed tanks in the fighting. One stunning number is that by the end of the second day, Russia sent 120 T-72 tanks and around 300 BMP-3 and BTR-80 armored fighting vehicles into the fighting.”
—
"The situation would likely look a lot differently in Estonia, with anti-tank and anti-air teams moving fast, blowing bridges and trying to score lucky ambushes on Russian tanks."
—
- The Battle of Tskhinvali Revisited
(Small Wars Journal)
[Very interesting account of the battle.]



- Trump wants other members of NATO to pay their fair share. Here's what that would look like
(LA Times)
--
- One NATO Member Thinks Trump Is Right
(Bloomberg)
(Lithuania) "
 plans to meet the threshold next year, and may push further to 2.5 percent by 2020."






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Monday 6. February
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- U.S. Army Abrams tanks, 15 Bradley Fighting Vehicles reach Estonia
(UPI)



- Delivery robots in Tallinn
(Deutsche Welle)
"Estonia has made a name for itself in the field of technology and innovation, and is home to start-ups testing new gadgets."
—
- Kas pakiveorobotile tuleb ĂŒlekĂ€igurajal teed anda?
(Postimees)



- Trump commits to NATO summit appearance
(CNN)
--
- Trump to meet NATO leaders in late May
(Washington Post | Politico-Europe | The Daily Beast)
—
—
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- Trump kohtub NATO liikmesriikide liidritega mais
(ERR)
"Trump kinnitas "tugevat toetust NATO-le”.



- Dismantling the last Soviet nuclear silos in Latvia
(Latvian Broadcasting)
"The base, code-named Dvina R12, is one of the five underground nuclear missile launch facilities, of which there were twelve in Latvia."
—
- LÀtis lammutatakse viimane NÔukogude tuumaraketibaa
(Postimees)







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Sunday 5. February
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- Estonian Philharmonic Chamber Choir makes all things whole with Arvo PĂ€rt
(New York Classical Review)



- NATO’s Baltic Outpost Digging Cyber Trenches for Europe
(Bloomberg)
—
- Baltic States and Cyber Deterrence
(FPRI)
"In 2007, Estonia faced serious cyber attacks. 
 In three waves, illegal robot networks (or botnets), consisting of 85,000 computers from 178 countries, attacked the websites of the Estonian government, political parties, commercial banks, news agencies, telecommunication companies, and even the emergency call service. In response, these websites temporarily closed access to foreign internet addresses. 
 While Russia denied participation in these incidents, it declined to cooperate in a joint investigation."



- Czech army wants to take part in NATO's reinforcement of Baltics
(Prague Daily Monitor)
"As of 2018, the Czech Republic would like to take part in an allied battlegroup within the reinforced military presence, either under the Canadian command in Estonia or under the German command in Lithuania."



- OtepÀÀ, Estonia’s Winter Capital
(The Baltic Guide)








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- Belarus -
_________________


- Travelogue: Minsk
(Calvert Journal)
"Minsk is the greatest neoclassical European city of the 20th century - the direct result of Soviet Belarus's intense resistance to the Third Reich."



- Are Moscow and the West Swapping Positions on Belarus?
(The Jamestown Foundation - Paul Goble)
"Since Alyaksandr Lukashenka became president of Belarus over two decades ago, Moscow has consistently viewed his country as its ally 
 But now there are intriguing indications that Russia and the West are progressively swapping their positions on Belarus, with Moscow viewing its Western neighbor as a threat and the West increasingly considering Belarus a possible ally against Russia."



- Russia Introduces a Border Zone With Belarus 
(Eurasia Daily Monitor)
"Moscow decided to set up a border zone between its Smolensk, Bryansk and Pskov regions and Belarus 
 Immediate explanations for why Moscow needed to set up such a border zone with its closest ally were mixed, but the overriding argument contended that Russia had to protect itself from threats originating potentially from Belarusian territory."



- Major Deployment of Russian Equipment to Belarus
(Defense24 - Poland, Nov. 2016)
"Officially, the said initiative is related to the “Zapad-2017” exercise which is scheduled to take place next year, nonetheless, the Belarusian opposition suggests that the movement may constitute a prelude for taking over military control over the country, launch aggression against Ukraine, Baltic states, or against Poland."
—
- Will Russia Occupy Belarus In 2017?
(Belarus Digest - Nov. 2016)
"Recently, the Russian Ministry of Defence disclosed logistical data of railway traffic to other countries for the upcoming year. 
 the Russian Ministry of Defence plans to send 4,162 railway carriages to Belarus next year. This would be 33 times more traffic than in 2015, and 83 times more traffic than this year. Some more argue that this increase in flow is connected with the 'Zapad 2017' joint strategic military exercises taking place next September.”
—
[Reports claim that Russia sent only 200 railway carriages to Belarus for 'Zapad 2013’.]



- Ambassador of Belarus meets Prime Minister of Estonia
(Belarus Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
"During the meeting, the sides discussed a wide range of issues of bilateral cooperation in political, trade, economic and other spheres. The parties also considered further development of Belarus-Estonia Inter-parliamentary cooperation. Special attention was paid to the collaboration within the framework of the EU “Eastern Partnership” initiative, taking into account the upcoming Estonian Presidency of the EU Council in the second half of 2017."



- Commentary: Lukashenka Plays Chicken
(RFERL - Brian Whitmore)
"Putin's regime believes it has the upper hand on the West and Moscow is clearly emboldened in its neighborhood. And, with NATO troops in Poland and Lithuania, Belarus's strategic value has just increased."



- Will Belarus Be Putin’s Next Victim?
(Observer)
"Its geographic location, bordering on three members of the Atlantic Alliance, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, gives Belarus an undeniable importance to Russia, one which has only increased since 2014, when Moscow’s ties to NATO soured after Putin annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine. Given perennial Russian fears of invasion from the west, Belarus looms large in Moscow’s military imagination—and war plans."
--
- What Exactly Is Going on Between Russia and Belarus?
(Foreign Policy)
"President Lukashenko 
 said that his country’s ties with Russia are deteriorating because Russia is afraid of Belarus turning toward the West."



- Putin May Exploit Disarray in Washington to Launch Attack on Belarus
(Window on Eurasia)
“
 if Putin concludes that he can win a quick victory and boost his standing at home, then Moscow will likely launch a “hybrid” war against Belarus in the near future, a war in which Moscow has some advantages but one, the two experts suggest, it has less than a 50 percent chance of success.”
— 
"If Moscow did succeed, Belarus would become a place des armes for further Russian military moves against Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia."
—
- Russia is in a quarrel with Belarus
(Meduza)
—
- Belarusian authorities are helpless before information and psychological attacks from Russia
(Euromaidan Press)
--
- OpEd: The Week Moscow Fell Out With Minsk
(The Moscow Times)






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- Russia -
“Trust No One"
_________________


- Siberia's speedy 'rocket tram' which only stops when the cold hits -58C
(Siberian Times)



- Russia's Art of War
(Foreign Affairs)
"Russia’s strategic intentions crystallized in August 2008 during its brief war with Georgia, which had launched an offensive to recapture the Moscow-backed breakaway province of South Ossetia. 
 Russia’s overwhelming force and the incompetence of the Georgian military meant that the outcome of the war was never really in doubt."



- The "Darth Vader" of Russia: meet Igor Sechin, Putin's right-hand man
(Vox)
"A Putin crony with close ties to America’s new secretary of state 
 Sechin’s relationship with Tillerson dates back more than a decade. 
 Putin awarded the Russian order of friendship to Tillerson in 2013, reportedly at Sechin's request.”
—
"Now Tillerson’s appointment could allow Sechin to extend his clout once again. “At the very least, his influence on foreign policy will be increased, because he has a history of communicating with American oilmen” like Tillerson and secretary of energy pick Rick Perry, said Evgeny Minchenko, a Kremlin-connected analyst known for his “Politburo 2.0” reports on the ruling elite."



- Moscow Readies a New, Hard-Line Ambassador for Washington D.C.
(Foreign Policy)
“The Kremlin is considering promoting Anatoly Antonov, a hardliner who is currently Moscow’s deputy foreign minister, to the post. Antonov is a well-known figure among U.S. diplomatic and foreign policy hands, several of whom characterized him as a tough, well-prepared negotiator who can also act as an unrepentant propagandist when the need arises."




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