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06 April, 2018





✔︎ President Kaljulaid visited the White House this past week to meet with President Trump. She did many interviews with the gaggle of US and international press outlets that were following the story. You’ll find some of these interviews scattered throughout this week’s newsletter.


✔︎ “Estonian people speaking Russian language, do not necessarily speak Putin language.  (Kaljulaid during an interview with UK’s Channel 4 News)


✔︎ Kaljulaid saabus Valgesse Majja (various sources)


✔︎ On Sunday Hungary holds one of its most unpredictable parliamentary elections since 1990.  (German Marshall Fund)


✔︎ Estonia is Emerging Europe’s Most Media Literate Country  (Emerging Europe)


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- Archive:



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Friday 6. April
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- Securing the Nordic-Baltic region
by Eoin Micheál McNamara
(NATO Review Magazine)
"The region is of rising importance in the context of Europe’s changing security order – and defence and deterrence is set to be high on the agenda at NATO’s summit meeting in Warsaw, Poland, in July."



- EU Remains Unprepared for the Next Migration Crisis
by Stefan Lehne
(Carnegie Europe)
"Another wave of mass migration is likely to hit Europe, and unless the EU can muster collective action, the Schengen system of passport-free travel could be swept away.”
"The days of a Willkommenskultur (welcoming culture) are unlikely to come back."




- Kuningamäe tulevik | The Future of Königsberg
by Jõri Saar
"Köningsberg tuleks pärast Vene vägede lahkumist viia otseselt Euroopa Liidu jurisdiktsiooni alla.”


[The author suggests that Königsberg / Kaliningrad Oblast should be placed under the EU’s jurisdiction when Russian forces leave.]



UK Report: Salisbury poison made at Russia’s Shikhany military base
(The Times - UK)
[The Shikhany military research base in southwest Russia has been identified as the source of the novichok nerve agent used at Salisbury. … The stockpiles detected at Shikhany were far smaller than would be used as a battlefield weapon, suggesting their use in targeted killings.]

- Venemaa eitas Novitšoki pärinemist Šihhanõ linnast
(ERR)

- Novichok nerve agents – Russia's dangerous 'new’ poison
(Deutsche Welle)
"The family of compounds, which were developed in the 1970s and 80s, comprise numerous nerve agents. All contain an organophosphorous core. … one of the less dangerous compounds were made public during the Soviet era … In essence, the nerve agent triggers a protein chain reaction, resulting in an uncontrolled bombardment of body tissue and organs with nerve signals by a neurotransmitter called acetylcholine. The signals continue and overload the tissues and the organs. Essentially, we end up with excess salivation, problems with breathing, because we can't control the muscles. It can lead to paralysis, convulsions and ultimately death if the dose is high enough or the exposure long enough."




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Thursday 5. April
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- Estonia is Emerging Europe’s Most Media Literate Country
(Emerging Europe)
"A major new study by the Open Society Institute in Bulgaria has revealed that amongst emerging European countries, Estonia has by far the highest level of media literacy, ranking fifth in a list of 35 European countries surveyed, above both the UK and Germany. … Education remains the key component in dealing with the post-truth phenomenon – as the general education level as well as tailored media literacy training,” said the report’s author, Marin Lessenski ..."




- Estonia Eyeing Bigger Role in the U.N.
(WSJ - login required)
"Kaljulaid said Wednesday that her government is seeking a seat on the U.N. Security Council, where it plans to push governments around the world to take a stronger role in establishing cybersecurity norms and monitoring threats.”



Interview: President Kaljulaid is Planning for the Future
(Wired)
"If you regulate for AI, you also regulate for machine learning, self-acting and autonomous systems. We want our state to be proactive to offer services to people. You need to carefully think how to make this offer safe to our people and their private data. We want AI to be safely grown in Estonia."



Interview: ‘Estonian people who speak Russian language do not necessarily speak Putin language’
( UK’s Channel 4 | Delfi)
and



- Estonian troops say US and international military responders ‘fit like puzzle pieces’ after Russian defense drill
(Sofrep)



- How Europe's Parties Have Been Shifting Right
By Markus Wagner and Thomas Meyer
(Foreign Affairs)
"In 2017, far-right candidates achieved their best-ever results in presidential elections in Austria and France. After Italy’s parliamentary election in March, the radical-right Lega became the largest party in the conservative coalition. Radical-right parties have entered coalition governments in Austria and Norway, and in Denmark the Danish People’s Party currently supports the center-right minority government. In Germany and the Netherlands, meanwhile, radical-right parties made substantial gains in the 2017 parliamentary elections. These electoral victories have provoked alarm, leading many observers to ask whether radical-right parties are gaining new and unprecedented influence in European politics."




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Hungary
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- Hungarian Politics Is About to Enter a New Period
(GMF)
"On April 8, Hungary holds one of its most unpredictable parliamentary elections since the beginning of the country’s recent democratic history in 1990."

- The Risks to Freedom in Hungary
by David Frum
(The Atlantic)
"Hungary is a NATO ally, a member nation of the European Union, a signatory of the European Convention on Human Rights—and also, since 2010, an increasingly authoritarian and illiberal state. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has politicized the country’s court, central bank, and media. … The country’s independent media has largely been stifled."

- How Viktor Orban became the real threat to the West
(Washington Post)
"Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban seeks to win reelection for a third consecutive term this Sunday."

- How Hungary’s Far-Right Extremists Became Warm and Fuzzy
(Foreign Policy)
"The Jobbik party, once known for its overt racism and anti-Semitism, is trying to reinvent itself as the responsible voice of the center."

- In Eastern Europe, the E.U. faces a rebellion more threatening than Brexit
(Washington Post)

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Belarus: Putin Planning to Interfere in 2019 and 2020 Elections
by Paul Goble
(Window on Eurasia)
"Russians already now are “considering scenarios of a so-called ‘transit of power’ in Belarus” in the parliamentary and presidential elections slated for 2019 and 2020 and “will try to interfere … in order to bring to power someone who will be able to completely fulfill [Moscow’s] strategic interests,” Arseny Sivitsky says.”

Belarus remains very important for the Kremlin - it is a unique buffer and the shortest path for a corridor to Kaliningrad. Consequently, the Kremlin cannot allow Belarus to escape from its control.






- Russia's influence is much more than propaganda and fake news
(Euronews)
"Russia’s influence strategy is based on a "firehose of falsehood" propaganda model, grounded in a “shameless willingness to disseminate partial truths or outright fictions” through multiple channels simultaneously."



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Wednesday 4. April
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Interview: Kaljulaid Says She Is More Confident About Trump Administration's Foreign Policy
(NPR podcast)



- Baltics can rely on U.S. help
(Postimees)
"Kaljulaid expressed her satisfaction over the meeting with Trump when she said, both in the White House and in following interviews, how important Estonia’s contribution to its security is, which is something Trump praised her for in his characteristically exuberant style."



- Gen. Riho Terras met with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford in Washington
(ERR)
"NATO deterrent needs to be 'visible and tangible. … to make for a sufficient deterrent against Russia's increasingly aggressive behavior.”

- Estonia calls for deployment of US troops, Patriot missiles
(Euractiv)
 "We need our deterrence to be believable.” - Kaljulaid



Intervjuu: Kersti Kaljulaid
(Eesti Päevaleht)
“… kolme Balti riigi presidendi mõtted Venemaa kohta tundusid Donald Trumpile loogilised."



Commentary: Trump can do more for the Baltic states
by Agnia Grigas
(Reuters)
"The U.S. president should now craft a careful policy to show Washington’s support for the needs of the nations run by Lithuania’s Dalia Grybauskaite, Estonia’s Kersti Kaljulaid and Latvia’s Raimonds Vejonis.”
"Washington should turn to its Baltic allies for advice on plans to provide support for the nascent democracies in the East. The Baltic states and Poland have particularly close relations with countries like Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine in the European Union’s Eastern Partnership (EaP); the leaders who met with Trump in Washington this week are among the best placed and informed to take the lead in shaping EU policy on this initiative."



Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster Unleashes on Russia in Final Speech
(Foreign Policy | Atlantic Council)
“For too long, some nations have looked the other way in the face of these threats. Russia brazenly and implausibly denies its actions, and we have failed to impose sufficient costs,” McMaster said Tuesday night, speaking at an Atlantic Council dinner alongside leaders from the three Baltic nations in town to meet with President Donald Trump.”

McMaster Transcript:



- ERR Maria-Ann Rohemäe uuris Trumpi suhete kohta Putiniga
(Delfi)



- Estonia heard what it went to Washington to hear
(ERR)
"Baltic presidents' meeting with Trump was both symbolic and practical in nature.”
--
"Trump very seriously addressed first the history of how the U.S. never recognized the Soviet occupation of Estonia, through what our relationships as allies are today," noted the committee chairman Hannes Hanso. "He also said that he is very much looking forward to the next 100 years of our good and close allied relationship."



- Reporter’s Debrief: Trump luncheon for the Baltic Presidents
by Jenna Johnson
(Washington Post)
"President Trump spent nearly three minutes at a luncheon this week welcoming the presidents of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — whose difficult-to-pronounce names he never uttered publicly — and saying he should be given “credit” for pressuring countries like theirs to give more money to NATO."



OpEdBaltic presidents' meeting with Trump a ‘milestone'
(ERR)
“… in a greater diplomatic game, and that it had been one of several meetings currently happening with United States officials."



- Eesti otsustas USA toetuse eest hankida luurevahendeid ja tankitõrjemoona
(Postimees)
"Ameerika Ühendriikide tänavusest eelarvest on Balti riikide sõjalisele riigikaitsele erinevatest fondidest eraldatud toetusi kokku umbes 170 miljonit dollari ulatuses, mis jagatakse kolme riigi vahel."
- Estonia to buy anti-tank, artillery ammunition with US support



- EU Considers Funding Cuts for 'Visegrad Group’
(Spiegel)
 "Officials in Brussels are tired of transferring billions of euros each year to Eastern Europe only for the recipients to cause headache after headache. … The four Visegrad Group countries -- Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary -- alone have received around 150 billion euros in net subsidies from the EU budget since 2007.”



Opinion: Poland is not sliding into dictatorship
by Karolina Wigura
(The Guardian)
"Today’s erosion of the rule of law is extremely worrying and can hardly be ignored. But a return to the pre-2015 period is neither possible nor desirable. Voters have simply become too critical of the flaws in the political setup that emerged from the 1990s. Law and Justice’s victory at the ballot box in 2015 was a result of widespread frustrations overlooked by many."




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Tuesday 3. April
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Kersti Kaljulaid saabus Valgesse Majja
(ERR | Postimees | Delfi)
--
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- Remarks by President Trump with Heads of the Baltic States
WH Official Transcript
(White House) 


- President Donald J. Trump’s Support for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania
WH Press Release
(White House)



- Baltic presidents met with U.S. President 
(Various sources)
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- The U.S.-Baltic Presidential Summit: 100 Years with Russia
by Anke Schmidt-Felzmann
(FPRI)



- Peaminister Ratas: idapiiri ehitustööd peavad igal juhul jätkuma
(Lõuna Eestlane | Lõuna Leht)
"Eesti idapiir on ühtlasi Euroopa Liidu ja NATO välispiir, seetõttu on projekteerimisest saati olnud tegu suure ja ambitsioonika projektiga."
--



- NATO’s Bad Apples
(Carnegie Europe)
"Over the past few years—and in particular, over the past nine months—several members of the U.S.-led military alliance have run roughshod over NATO solidarity and the basic principles upon which the alliance was founded in April 1949 (NATO is unfortunately silent).”



- Vilkale metsamüügile annavad hoogu poliitikud ja roheaktivistid ning see on ohtlik
(Ärileht)
"Eesti suuremate maaomanike tabelis on suurim tõusja Graanul Invest."



- Russia threatens sanctions over Latvian language in schools
(BBC | Transitions)
"The language reform is being phased in; by September 2021 all 16 to 18-year-olds will be taught only in Latvian."






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Monday 2. April
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- Vene Balti laevastik siirdub Läänemerele õppusele
(Postimees | Delfi)
"Russian missiles will be tested in international waters unusually close to Sweden next week. Air traffic near Öland and Bornholm will have to be redirected. "I've never seen anything like it" says flight traffic chief Jörgen Andersson.” - Radio Sweden
- Defense Ministry not overly concerned about Russian missile tests
(ERR)



- Estonia’s president keeps faith with liberal democracy
(Financial Times)
"At 48, Kersti Kaljulaid is Estonia’s youngest president since the small Baltic state regained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Yet her memories go back far enough to persuade her that, no matter how serious the challenges confronting her nation and other western democracies, they are in some respects less formidable than those that faced Estonia in the early 1990s."
--
"At that time, she recalls in an interview with the Financial Times, Estonian membership of Nato and the EU — the twin pillars of western security and prosperity — was far from assured. Russian troops were still stationed on Estonian soil and were not to leave until 1994."



Opinion: Russia’s digital warfare has put Western democracies in the crosshairs
(McCleans - Canada)
"Sadly, our feeble institutional reaction to Moscow’s willingness to use digital warfare to destabilize our democracy has only emboldened Putin’s long game. … The willingness of the Republican Party’s traditional media ally, Fox News, to echo the narrative put out by the Kremlin is a troubling sign that Moscow’s weaponization of 'fake news' is working.”
" Long before anyone was paying attention, Kremlin-owned enterprises made massive investments in the world’s largest social media platforms through Russian billionaire, Yuri Milner."




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Russia
Trust No One"
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- Putin’s Closest Cronies Are Hit With New U.S. Sanctions
(New York Times | others)
"The Trump administration imposed new sanctions on seven of Russia’s richest men and 17 top government officials on Friday in the latest effort to punish President Vladimir V. Putin’s inner circle for interference in the 2016 election and other Russian aggressions."



Opinion: Putin Has Overplayed His Hand
By William J. Burns
(New York Times)
"By meddling in the internal affairs and democratic fabric of America and its allies over the past couple of years, Mr. Putin has overplayed his hand. He is risk-tolerant to the point of recklessness, and he has picked a fight where the West has far more at stake than he does."



Interview: Mikhail Khodorkovsky on how the Putin system works
(Chatham House)



- Are the Kemerovo Protests a Sign of More Backlash to Come for the Kremlin?
(Stratfor)
"The small Russian city of Kemerovo is making waves across the nation following a deadly fire at a shopping mall. On March 25, the blaze claimed nearly 70 people, including 41 children, along with a zoo full of animals. And in the days since, protests around the country have forced the Kremlin to turn its eye toward the growing internal crisis. The common theme among the demonstrations is a powerful condemnation of corruption, which many protesters have highlighted as the fundamental cause of the mall fire."

- Governor Of Russia's Kemerovo Region Resigns
(RFERL)



- Putin Regime Cutting Itself Off from Reality at Home and Abroad
(Window on Eurasia)



- Russia announces its smallest military draft in 12 years
(Meduza)
"This year’s spring draft, the country’s smallest in 12 years, comes as the number of draft-age men in Russia continues its eight-year decline." 



- Leaked emails expose Russian dirty tricks
(The Times)
"Russian attempts to fuel dissent and spread disinformation have been exposed by a cache of leaked documents that show what the Kremlin is prepared to pay for hacking, propaganda and rent-a-mob rallies.”
"The emails also include an event and two books that would claim that an area of Ukraine had Russian heritage."
--
"Other proposals included the orchestration of anti-Ukraine, pro-Russia rallies. These involved the transport of “sportsmen” trained in martial arts to agitate at the rallies, bribes to local media to feature the protests and bribes to police to turn a blind eye. A month of rallies in Kharkiv was priced at $19,200. It included 100 participants, three organisers and two lawyers. It is unclear if the rallies took place, though others orchestrated by the Kremlin did happen …"

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