The New ‘Baltic Way’: Assessing the Baltic Defensive Line Concept
By LTC Kevin M. Ryan
(Foreign Policy Research Institute)
“Announced jointly by the three nations’ Ministers of Defense on January 19, 2024, the Baltic Defence Line is intended to connect “anti-mobility installations” along the eastern flank of the region to deter Russian aggression and produce a capability to defend the territory “from the first meter,” a reference to NATO’s 2022 Madrid Summit declaration, which agreed that the Alliance would “protect our populations and defend every inch of Allied territory at all times.”
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“But the plans announced to date are quite parochial and have faced criticism for the inordinate cost to taxpayers and landholders. It also presents a one-dimensional solution to a multidimensional defense problem; one that the same Madrid communiqué defined as a “360-degree approach, across the land, air, maritime, cyber, and space domains, and against all threats and challenges,” a fact that Latvia was reminded of recently when a Russian drone penetrated its airspace and crashed 90 km inland.”
https://www.fpri.org/article/2024/12/the-new-baltic-way-assessing-the-baltic-defensive-line-concept/
Estonia first to start inspecting Russian 'shadow fleet' vessels
(ERR)
“Estonia's Police and Border Guard Board is inspecting Russian shadow fleet vessels in Estonian economic waters and has requested insurance documents from more than 200 vessels since June. … This fleet "consists of a growing number of aging and poorly maintained vessels that operate with minimal regard to the regulations, poses significant environmental, maritime safety, and security risks. … Physical inspections, which have been carried out randomly.”
https://news.err.ee/1609548817/estonia-first-to-start-inspecting-russian-shadow-fleet-vessels
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Tallinn's infamous 'million-kroon' toilet was replaced at Toompea
(ERR)
“In October, Tallinn city authorities had removed the small restroom building opened in 2002, which had cost a staggering 2.3 million kroons at the time.”
https://news.err.ee/1609548139/gallery-tallinn-s-million-kroon-toilet-replaced-at-toompea
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“Lõppesid rahvusvaheline õppus Pikne ja lisaõppekogunemine Okas.” - ERR
“Estonian-led military exercise Pikne, snap exercise Okas 24-2 concluded.” - ERR
“Estonian Foreign Minister: Trump can be ‘Churchill of our times’ if he secures peace in Ukraine.” - The Telegraph
“F-35 and Rafale jets intercept multiple Russian aircraft off Estonian coast.” - Business Insider
“Estonia’s move to strip Russians of their right to vote rehashes complicated questions of belonging.” - The Parliament Magazine
“EU gives Estonia €19.4 million to strengthen border security.” - ERR
“Europe’s next top diplomat Kaja Kallas is ready to be undiplomatic.” - Politico
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Around the Baltic Sea
How Baltic and Nordic countries are preparing for a crisis or war
By Professor Marie Cronqvist
(The Conversation)
“The Baltic states … have regularly updated public information over the past decade. This partly stems from historical experiences of Soviet occupation, and fears of something similar happening again. … emergency preparedness advice has also been updated this year in Denmark and Norway.”
Baltic Power Shows Way on Hybrid Threats
By Eitvydas Bajarūnas, CEPA
“On Halloween, Lithuania marked a significant milestone in its journey to energy independence by unveiling a clock in Vilnius to count down 100 days until the Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia — disconnect from the Soviet-era BRELL electricity grid linking them to Russia and Belarus. The change, on February 8, will coincide with synchronization to the Continental European Network and drastically cut Moscow’s ability to exert malign influence.”
https://cepa.org/article/baltic-power-shows-way-on-hybrid-threats/
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“In case of crisis or war.” - Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency | PDF
“Peace in Eurasia Possible Only if Russia is Dismantled.” - Window on Eurasia
“NATO and European leaders to discuss peacekeeping troops to Ukraine.” - Politico
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Putin’s Forever War
Russia and Ukraine may agree to ceasefire in 2025, but peace not guaranteed
By Paul Goble
“The evolution of the war during 2024 strongly suggests that achieving even a mere ceasefire would be extremely difficult. Likewise, any accord that does emerge will be, at most, a truce rather than a peace. Both countries would use a ceasefire to rebuild and expand their forces. Russia will do so because President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine has always been about a greater conflict with the West. Ukraine will do so because Russia will remain an existential threat to its territorial integrity and sovereignty unless Moscow is fundamentally transformed, something that may not happen anytime soon …”
Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994, now it's asking why
(BBC)
“Thirty years ago, on 5 December 1994, at a ceremony in Budapest, Ukraine joined Belarus and Kazakhstan in giving up their nuclear arsenals in return for security guarantees from the United States, the UK, France, China and Russia. Strictly speaking, the missiles belonged to the Soviet Union, not to its newly independent former republics. But a third of the USSR’s nuclear stockpile was located on Ukrainian soil, and handing over the weapons was regarded as a significant moment, worthy of international recognition.”
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“We could have kept a few dozen tactical warheads. That would have guaranteed security for our country.” - Former missile technician Oleksandr Sushchenko
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crl3ndxglwxo
Aleksandr Dugin’s Ideology of Chaos
By Pekka Kallioniemi, The Baltic Sentinal
“If you haven’t heard of Aleksandr Dugin, consider yourself lucky — or perhaps blissfully unaware of one of the most dangerous ideologues of our time. Imagine a mix of a conspiracy theorist, a mystic, and a wannabe Machiavelli, and you’ll have a good sense of who this man is. Known to some as "Putin’s Brain," Dugin’s ideology of Eurasianism revolves around Russian exceptionalism, authoritarianism, and expansionism—principles that are currently playing out in countries like Ukraine and Georgia.”
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“According to him, the West is a cultural black hole, sucking the soul out of humanity with its individualism and progressive values. Meanwhile, Russia, in Dugin’s imagination, is the savior of humanity, destined to lead a multipolar world where might makes right. He has even called for a “holy war” against liberalism. Subtle, isn’t it?”
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