“… the Russian army has not changed in 100 years. During the First World War and the Second World War, they used the same tactics, which are unimaginable atrocities and war crimes. They are raping kids, they are killing civilians. So in that sense, nothing has changed in the Russian war system.”
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur
During an interview with The Kyiv Independent
_______________
https://twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1638541379977576450?cxt=HHwWhIC89YStor0tAAAA
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“If they occupy us (Ukraine), they will be on the borders of Moldova and they will occupy Moldova. When they have occupied Moldova, they will travel through Belarus and they will occupy Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. That’s three Baltic countries which are members of NATO. They will occupy them. Of course, the Balts are brave people, and they will fight. But they are small. And they don’t have nuclear weapons. So they will be attacked by Russians because that is the policy of Russia, to take back all the countries which have been previously part of the Soviet Union.”
President Volodymyr Zelensky
During an interview with The Atlantic
_______________
“Russia’s relentless war on Ukraine’s civilians is, in fact, the strategy that most analysts expected Moscow to pursue from the very beginning, replicating the tactics it used in Chechnya and Grozny in the 1990s and more recently in Syria. The fact that it took Moscow months to begin its systematic bombardment of cities far from the frontlines reflects the Kremlin’s initial, erroneous assumption that Ukrainian resistance would collapse more or less instantaneously.”
“Russia Wants a Long War.” - Foreign Affairs
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“NATO Secretary General’s Annual Report 2022.” - NATO
Friday 24. March 2023
Euroopa Parlamendis on olnud kaitseteemadega tegelemisele suur vastuseis
(Postimees)
“Kuigi möödunud aasta 24. veebruarit võib lugeda Euroopa kaitses uue ajajärgu alguseks, leidub hulgaliselt lünki, mis vajavad kiiresti täitmist. Sellest, milline on Euroopa ühiskaitse seis ja mida julgeoleku tugevdamiseks teha oleks vaja, räägib Euroopa Parlamendi saadik Riho Terras.”
Kolonel Kundla: Venemaa alustab suurt värbamiskampaaniat
(ERR)
“Alanud on ulatuslik värbamiskampaania, juba käib infokampaania ning avatakse värbamispunkte," rääkis Kundla reedel kaitseministeeriumi korraldatud iganädalasel briifingul. Tema sõnul kuulutatakse värbamislaine ametlikult alanuks 1. aprillil, aga töö selle nimel juba käib.”
—
“Suur erinevus eelmisel sügisel toimunud värbamisega on aga selles, et nüüd on alustatud sõjaväkke kutsumist ka jõukama elanikkonnaga Venemaa suurlinnades. Varem võeti mehi Ukrainasse sõtta saatmiseks peamiselt riigi äärealadelt ning suuresti mittevene rahvusest elanikkonnaga regioonidest.”
https://www.err.ee/1608925949/kolonel-kundla-venemaa-alustab-suurt-varbamiskampaaniat
Estonia expels Russian Embassy diplomat declared persona non grata
(ERR | RFERL)
“… and has ordered them to leave the country within five days, the ministry announced Friday. … The diplomat in question has been engaged in directly and actively undermining Estonia's security and constitutional order, spreading propaganda that justifies Russia's military action and causing divisions in Estonian society.”
https://news.err.ee/1608925886/estonia-expels-russian-embassy-diplomat-declared-persona-non-grata
—
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-estonia-diplomat-expulsion/32332850.html
“Eesti saadab välja Vene diplomaadi.” - ERR
Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin denies Russia is fighting NATO in Ukraine
(ISW - 23. March)
“Prigozhin stated that Russia is fighting “exclusively with Ukrainians” who are equipped with NATO-provided equipment and some “russophobic” mercenaries who voluntarily support Ukraine - but not NATO itself. Prigozhin also noted that Russian officials most likely knew that NATO would offer Ukraine military aid, because “it is ridiculous to think that when [Russia] decided to conduct this special military operation it did not account for NATO’s help to Ukraine.”
—
“Prigozhin noted that he is unsure about the “denazification” objectives in Ukraine, because he does not know if there are “Nazis” in Ukraine. Prigozhin also noted that Russia will ”demilitarize” Ukraine only when all of the Ukrainian military is destroyed, claiming that this effort is ongoing, but that it is unclear if it will be successful. Prigozhin stated that Russia can avoid an exhausting protracted war by deciding now which borders it wants to capture. Prigozhin also called on the Russian military and media to stop underestimating Ukrainian forces and engaging in internal conflicts. Prigozhin effectively rejected the Kremlin’s pre-war and post-war claims that Russia needed to defend itself against a NATO threat in Ukraine and undermined the necessity and probability of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stated maximalist objectives …”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-23-2023
Estonian Defense Minister: German Forces Need to Get Into Better Shape
(Spiegel)
“Hanno Pevkur discusses EU support for Ukraine, NATO's presence in the Baltic region and the state of Germany's military.”
Estonia says China’s peace plan to end Ukraine’s war is ‘extremely unfair’
(CNBC)
“… since the plan doesn’t respect the territorial integrity of the country, said the permanent secretary of Estonia’s Ministry of Defense. … Beijing issued a 12-point peace plan in February.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/24/estonia-says-chinas-plan-to-end-ukraines-war-extremely-unfair-.html
Interview: Ukraine commander Col. Leonid Hoda
(ERR)
“Col. Leonid Hoda is a legend in Ukraine. He received Ukraine's highest honor –the Hero of Ukraine decoration – just weeks after the war started, in March of last year. Hoda's brigade defended the city of Chernihiv near the Belarusian border. The 1st Siveria Tank Brigade destroyed more than 50 units of enemy machinery and kept the city from falling. The brigade is currently fighting in Donbas. …”
https://news.err.ee/1608921839/ukrainian-commander-russia-will-turn-its-gaze-on-the-baltics-one-day
Thursday 23. March
Brussels can’t keep easterners from top jobs forever, Estonian PM says
(Politico Europe)
“Since Russia began its unyielding campaign to seize Ukraine, countries like Estonia and its Baltic neighbors are being heard — and driving policy — like never before. Now, Kallas stressed, it’s time to also put some of those people in charge.
“We have been members of NATO and the European Union for 19 years,” Kallas said from her office in Tallinn, taking a break from her coalition talks to form a new government. Estonia entered both organizations in 2004, joining six other countries that had once been part of the Soviet-era Eastern Bloc.”
—
““Do we have … worse people than the old Europeans? Or are we not there yet?” Kallas said. “I think the answer is that, no, actually, we have very good people.”
“We should be on the radar for top jobs,” she added. “We have been proving ourselves in both of those organizations.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-eastern-europe-top-jobs-estonia-pm-kaja-kallas/
Soome president allkirjastas NATO-ga liitumise seadused
(ERR)
“Soome parlament toetas märtsi alguses ülekaalukalt NATO-ga liitumist. Niinistö allkirjaga on nüüd Soome teinud kõik riigisisesed sammud, et riik saaks liituda NATO-ga.”
—
[Finland has now taken all domestic steps so that the country can join NATO.]
https://www.err.ee/1608924920/soome-president-allkirjastas-nato-ga-liitumise-seadused
Sweden To Seek Explanation From Hungary On NATO Delay
(Barron’s)
“Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said Thursday he would seek an explanation from Hungary about why it is delaying its parliament's ratification of Sweden's NATO bid but not Finland’s."
https://www.barrons.com/news/sweden-to-seek-explanation-from-hungary-on-nato-delay-pm-5b66ade1
Norway watches warily as Russian subs and aircraft step up Arctic patrols
(NBC News)
“The NATO ally has released videos exclusively to NBC News illustrating what it sees as a growing Russian threat near a maze of undersea pipelines.”
—
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrY4xWkwwgo
“China is our strategic partner," says Governor of Russian Arctic region.” - The Barents Observer
The Suwałki Gap Problem Still Exists
(Lithuanian Tribune)
“The security services have finally publicly acknowledged, through their threat assessment, that the Russian military threat to Lithuania has not substantially decreased due to Russia’s war against Ukraine. “Kaliningrad is holding us directly in the line of fire. Nothing has changed in this situation over the years.”
—
“Let us remember that one of the reasons for the second wave of the war against Ukraine was the creation of a land “corridor” from the Donbas via Mariupol to Crimea, which Russia managed to do within weeks. And what remains Ukraine’s biggest problem if it wants to make real progress in the war is to regain those territories, regain access to the Sea of Azov, and isolate Crimea again.”
—
“From the Russian point of view, the other territory apart from Crimea, which is isolated from the Russian mainland, is Kaliningrad. It is, therefore, certain that one of Russia’s strategic military objectives would be, in the first place, to ‘connect’ the ‘eternally Russian’ lands of Kaliningrad to Russia through a land corridor.”
“Lithuania resists UN pressure to ease sanctions on Belarus.” - LRT
Wednesday 22. March
Estonian flag now flies over former Russian ambassador Tallinn residence
(ERR)
“While official ambassadorial residences, like embassy buildings themselves, will have the official coat of arms of that country prominently displayed by the main entrance, the Russian crest has also been removed from the gate at the well-appointed villa property on Kose 27, in the Pirita district of Tallinn.”
“Vene saadiku residentsis lehvib nüüd sinimustvalge.” - ERR
Interview: Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur
(Kyiv Independent, 18. March)
“… the Estonian defense minister, talked about the threat Russia poses to Estonia and why his country is so eager to support Ukraine.”
“Ukraine to get $15.6 bn IMF loan.” - Radio Poland
“U.S. speeds up deliveries of Abrams tanks, Patriot systems to Ukraine.” - Politico Europe
Lithuanian confidence in NATO at 70%. Estonia reportedly saw a drop of 22%
(LRT | BNN)
“Confidence in NATO has increased during the year both in Lithuania and in other member states of the alliance. In Lithuania, NATO is trusted by 70% of survey participants (8% more than last year), while the EU’s average level of trust in NATO is 50% (a 5% increase compared to the situation a year ago). People in Denmark (86%), the Netherlands (76%), and Finland (75%) trust NATO the most. In Latvia, Poland, and France, trust in NATO has increased by 11%.”
—
“The only country that has seen a significant drop in confidence in NATO, by 22%, is Estonia.”
https://bnn-news.com/lithuanians-show-more-confidence-in-eu-and-nato-244177
—
As Ukraine war drags on, NATO steps up war readiness
(Christian Science Monitor)
“NATO has been quietly taking the step of putting its strategic headquarters on what military officials here are describing as “war fighting footing.” While it’s a shift being made without public proclamation or formal status, some of its elements were authorized by the alliance’s political council last year. Officials here characterize the move as a major one and key to what NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg calls the “biggest overhaul of [NATO’s] collective defense since the Cold War.”
https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2023/0321/As-Ukraine-war-drags-on-NATO-steps-up-war-readiness
What to Make of the Escalating Repressions in Belarus?
By: Grigory Ioffe
(Jamestown Org.)
“In Belarus, a hunt for “extremists” has suddenly intensified.”
https://jamestown.org/program/what-to-make-of-the-escalating-repressions-in-belarus/
What Putin Wants to do in Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova
By Paul Goble
“Putin is imposing outsiders to rule them, destroying their native languages and cultures, and spreading the myth that they all belong to the Russian world that he is rebuilding after the treachery of Gorbachev at the end of Soviet times.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/03/what-putin-wants-to-do-in-ukraine.html
Tuesday 21. March
Signaal Moskvale? USA õhuvägi näitab Baltikumi kohal jõudu
(Postimees)
“Samal ajal kui Moskvas kohtuvad Xi Jingping ja Vladimir Putin, oli Baltikumi kohal märgata NATO õhujõudude tavapärasest suuremat kohalolu.”
https://www.postimees.ee/7736426/signaal-moskvale-usa-ohuvagi-naitab-baltikumi-kohal-joudu
Six hundred Ukrainian infantrymen already trained in Estonia
(Ukrinform)
“We trained 600 Ukrainian infantry soldiers. We have given training to one company at a time, three times. On top of that, there are medics, sharpshooters, and some more. I can't tell you more precisely,” said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur.”
“Estonia to Supply Ukraine With Sniper Rifles, Special Forces Equipment.” - The Defense Post
“Big EU powers still short of NATO spending targets.” - Politico
EU approves Estonia's initiative to jointly send 1 mln artillery shells to Ukraine
(Baltic Times | Politico Europe)
“The deal represents a landmark juncture for the EU, marking the first time the self-described peace project has plotted to jointly buy arms for a country at war. Officials have argued the EU must evolve to meet the extraordinary moment — no less than the fate of democracy on European soil is at stake, they insist.”
—
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-seals-deal-send-ukraine-1-million-ammo-rounds-shells-war/
Latvia Is Going on Offense Against Russian Culture
(Foreign Policy)
“Wariness of Russia has already led to the removal of Soviet-era monuments and proposed renaming of a street that celebrated Russian poet Alexander Pushkin. More significantly, Latvia has separated the Latvian Orthodox Church from the Russian Orthodox Church and banned some Russian TV broadcasts. It is even considering a return to the mandatory military service that had been abolished in 2006, several years after Latvia joined NATO and the EU.”
—.
“But the most significant changes, anchored in new laws, are the pending elimination of the Russian language from standard school curricula and the establishment of Latvian as the only language in which to impart education. The use of Russian in airports, train stations, and several commercial establishments has also been prohibited.“
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/21/latvia-is-going-on-offense-against-russian-culture/
- Putin’s Forever War -
“It was perhaps the most intriguing moment of their Moscow summit. As Xi Jinping left the Kremlin last night, he stood face to face with Vladimir Putin and told the Russian leader, ‘Change is coming that hasn’t happened in 100 years and we are driving this change together’. The two men clasped hands, smiling.”
“Xi Jinping’s chilling words for Putin.” - The Spectator, UK
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment - 22. & 23. March
(ISW)
“Russian forces conducted a limited drone and missile strike campaign in Ukraine overnight on March 21-22, indicating that Russian forces continue struggling with precision missile shortages.”
—
“Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu walked away and refused to answer a question about how soon to expect peace in Ukraine. A journalist from the Russian Ministry of Defense-run media outlet TV Zvezda first asked Shoigu how the war will end, to which Shoigu responded, “any war ends in peace.”
—
“Prigozhin denied the Kremlin’s claims that Russia is fighting NATO in Ukraine.”
—
“Russian forces may be shifting their missile strike tactics to focus on Ukrainian military facilities as overall Russian missile strikes decrease, indicating the depletion of Russia’s stocks of high-precision missiles.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-22-2023
—
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-23-2023
“Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly preparing to pull his Wagner Group mercenaries’ away from the war in Ukraine.” - Daily Beast
Moscow is now reportedly resorting to tanks from the 1940s and 1950s
(The Daily Beast | TVP)
“… in the latest sign that the invasion is floundering, according to researchers from the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT). The weapons, T-54 tanks and either late T-54 or early T-55 tanks, are being sent on a train westward from Russia's Far East, according to photographs the CIT shared Wednesday. The trains are traveling from the 1295th Central Tank Repair and Storage Base in Arsenyev in Russia’s Primorsky region.”
—
“The apparent effort to rely on outdated tanks comes as Moscow is scrambling to replace thousands of weapons lost on the battlefield a year into the war. Russia has been reaching back into its supplies of old gear and weapons for months now, attempting to refurbish troops with weapons that might help them seize more territory in Ukraine. But the available artillery Russia has in stock is not up to snuff—and may only spell more trouble for Moscow's war effort.”
—
“Russian forces may be deploying T-54/55 tanks from long-term storage to Ukraine to compensate for significant armored vehicle losses. … Russia took out old BTR-50s, armored personnel carriers built between the 1950s and 1970s, from storage in recent weeks, according to reports. Russia has also called up old T-62 tanks from 1961.”
—
“List Of Russian Army Equipment Deployed In Ukraine.” - Oryx
“Russia’s combat losses from 24.Feb 2022 to 22. March 2023.” - Ukraine Ministry of Defence
“Russia to Modernize Moscow's Air Defense Systems.” - The Moscow Times
Russia might lose trillions of dollars due to their invasion of Ukraine
(Novaya Gazeta)
[Interview with Branko Milanović, City University of New York.]
Putin’s Grand Ukraine Offensive Is In Serious Trouble
(19fortyfive)
“Russian forces continue to suffer heavy casualties on the ground in Ukraine. This week alone, the Russian military and Wagner Group private military company have lost more than 2,500 troops killed or wounded.”
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/03/putins-grand-ukraine-offensive-is-in-serious-trouble/
Putin visits Mariupol: ’No one showed him the empty pits of destroyed houses’
(Meduza | The Moscow Times)
“Journalists noted that Nevsky, where Putin was brought, is “essentially the only rebuilt section of the completely destroyed city.” The channel published several quotes that residents of other areas of Mariupol had posted on social media.”
—
“It’s too bad that he didn’t stop by our house, the eastern bank, the square. No windows, no doors, no hot water or heat. He could have talked to locals.”
—
“Why was he brought there, they brought him to areas that were preserved and rebuilt. No one showed him the empty pits that used to be under the foundations of destroyed homes.”
—
“Nobody gives a fuck about us. It’s all done for pictures on the TV screen, so people in Russia can see.”
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/03/19/no-one-showed-him-the-empty-pits
—
“Hiina kompab Venemaa abistamisel piiri, millega läänt mitte ärritada.” - ERR
“Putini Mariupoli külastus tekitas kahtlusi.” - Postimees
____________
Putin welcomed Xi Jinping to the Kremlin
(Euronews)
“Russian President Vladimir Putin warmly welcomed Chinese leader Xi Jinping to the Kremlin on Monday, sending a powerful message to Western leaders that their efforts to isolate Moscow over the fighting in Ukraine have fallen short.
Xi's trip, his first abroad since his re-election earlier this month, showed off Beijing’s new diplomatic swagger and gave a political lift to Putin just days after an international arrest warrant was issued for the Kremlin leader on war crime charges related to Ukraine.”
—
“The two major powers have described Xi’s three-day trip as an opportunity to deepen their “no-limits friendship.” China looks to Russia as a source of oil and gas for its energy-hungry economy, and as a partner in standing up to what both see as U.S. aggression, domination of global affairs and unfair punishment for their human rights records.”
https://www.euronews.com/2023/03/20/kremlin-rolls-out-the-red-carpet-for-chinas-xi-jinping
—
“Putinil ootab Xi visiidist palju.” - Postimees
“Blinken slams Xi for providing ‘diplomatic cover’ to Putin during Moscow visit.” - The Hill
“China's Diplomatic Support For Moscow Is Counter To U.S. Interests.” - RFERL
“Putin’s two-day charm offensive with Xi underlines who’s boss.” - Guardian
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