This issue of EstoNews [# 373] is the
last one for 2022. Plan is to return
either the second or the third week of
January 2023. Head uut aastad!
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| Today’s cover is from this vintage Christmas card. The image was cropped, enhanced, and slightly modified. |
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EstoNews Blog: https://estonewsoftheweek.blogspot.com/
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Friday 16. December
Leningradi oblasti kuberner: Narvas läheb piiriületus sõidukitele kinni
(ERR)
“Venemaa sulgeb Ivangorodi poolelt Narva piiriületuse kõigile sõidukitele kaheks aastaks. Piiriületus jääb 2023. aastal algavate tööde ajaks avatuks jalakäijatele. Venemaa sellist sammu võib võtta ka välispoliitilise surveavaldusena, kuigi mingit füüsilist mõju sellel Eestile ei ole.”
https://www.err.ee/1608822880/leningradi-oblasti-kuberner-narvas-laheb-piiriuletus-soidukitele-kinni
Narva piiripunkti sulgemine võib olla Venemaa kavatsetud samm seoses sõjaga
(Postimees)
“Leningradi oblasti kuberner Aleksandr Drozdenko teatas Ivangorodi piiripunkti peatsest sulgemisest rekonstrueerimise eesmärgil. Tööde eeldatavad alguskuupäevad on mai-juuni, nende kestuseks on kuni kolm aastat …”
“Las sulgevad Narva piiriületuse - liiklus ongi pea olematu.” - Postimees
Aastalõpuintervjuu: Kaja Kallas
(Postimees)
[End-of-the-year interview.]
Venemaa Balti mere laevastik alustas Läänemerel õppust Kaliningradi oblastis
(ERR)
“Õppusel osaleb üle 1500 sõjaväelase, teatas reedel Vene Balti mere laevastik.”
https://www.err.ee/1608823378/venemaa-balti-mere-laevastik-alustas-laanemerel-oppust
United States infantry company arrived at Taara base in Võru
(ERR)
“The U.S. infantry company will be stationed in Võru during its deployment and will participate in joint exercises with the EDF. The aim of the deployment is to enhance interoperability and demonstrate the flexibility of combat credible forces to respond to threats.”
—
“In addition to the deployment of U.S. troops, a NATO battle group (Enhanced Forward Presence) led by the United Kingdom and in which French and Danish units and Icelandic experts also participate, is currently serving in Estonia. A German Air Force unit is also in Estonia; part of the Baltic Air Policing Mission.”
https://news.err.ee/1608822916/us-infantry-unit-arrives-in-estonia
“NATO agrees 2023 budgets, reflecting higher ambitions for the new security reality.” - NATO
Rail Baltica’s function has fundamentally changed due to Russia's war in Ukraine. EU to now fund 85% of the construction
(Baltic Times)
“We need to bring the Baltics and Finland closer to the EU not primarily, but also for military use. Troops and military equipment should be able to travel to EU swiftly to ensure the defense of the EU and NATO. This point becomes relevant as Finland and Sweden are joining NATO.”
—
“Rail Baltic is expected to connect Tallinn, Parnu, Riga, Panevezys, Kaunas, Vilnius and Warsaw from 2026.”
https://www.baltictimes.com/eu_to_fund_up_to_85_pct_of_rail_baltic_s_construction_-_coordinator/
Ukraina pani Putini aastalõpu pressikonverentsi ära jätma
(ERR)
“Venemaa president Vladimir Putini aastalõpu pressikonverentsi ärajätmine on märgiline ja seda võib pidada strateegilise kommunikatsiooni võiduks Ukrainale, kuna Ukraina on pannud Venemaa oma agendat muutma …”
https://www.err.ee/1608820762/saks-ukraina-pani-putini-aastalopu-pressikonverentsi-ara-jatma
Kuulujutt: Putin kadus avalikkuse vaateväljast ja võib riigist põgeneda
(ERR)
“Ajaleht The Times kirjutab, et Venemaa president Vladimir Putin väldib avalikke esinemisi. Lääneriikide meedias levivad nüüd jälle kuulujutud Putini tervise kohta ning mõned analüütikud väidavad, et ta võib põgeneda üldse Lõuna-Ameerikasse.”
https://www.err.ee/1608822802/meedia-putin-kadus-avalikkuse-vaatevaljast-ja-voib-riigist-pogeneda
Thursday 15. December
Kallasel on Ukraina sõja koha pealt õigus
By Edward Lucas, Postimees
“Eesti peaminister Kaja Kallas väidab värskes Foreign Affairsis avaldatud tõeliselt heas artiklis, et see sõda ei seisne ida-lääne vahelises kaklemises malelaua ruutude pärast. See puudutab päris inimesi ja päris riike, päris lootuste ja päris hirmudega. Surm ja häving, mida ukrainlased praegu Venemaa haardes kogevad, tuletab meelde seda, mida Nõukogude Liit tegi Balti riikidele ja teistele. Ainus valik on lõpetada see nüüd või kannatada hiljem veelgi rohkem.”
https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7670575/edward-lucas-kaja-kallasel-on-ukraina-soja-koha-pealt-oigus
Juhtkiri: Väike samm eesti metsale, aga tohutu hüpe RMKle
(Postimees)
“Postimees on RMK kestvuslepingute probleeme korduvalt avalikkuse ette toonud. Nüüd on üks väike taktikaline võit siin saavutatud. Edasi tuleb võidelda, et Eesti mets vääristataks Eestis.”
https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7671603/juhtkiri-vaike-samm-eesti-metsale-aga-tohutu-hupe-rmkle
“Metsanduse arengukava jätab ruumi kummivenitamiseks.” - Postimees
“RMK sõlmib uued salajased kestvuslepingud, et need siis aasta pärast avalikustada.” - Postimees
* Kapo pidas Eestis kinni USA-st Venemaale tehnikat ja laskemoona vedanud mehe
(ERR)
“Viis Venemaa ja kaks USA kodanikku said süüdistuse kuritegeliku kokkuleppes ja Venemaa valitsuse eest rahapesus. Nende seas ka võimalik FSB ohvitser Vadim Konoštšjonok, kes peeti Eestis kinni katses vedada Venemaale sõjavarustust.”
* Criminals use Estonia to smuggle military equipment from the US to Russia
By Sten Hankewitz, Estonian World
“Seven Russian men, living in the US, have been charged with smuggling American-made military-grade equipment into Russia, some of which was transported through Estonia. … The goods alleged to have been smuggled include “advanced electronics and sophisticated testing equipment” to be used in nuclear weapons development and other military and space-based military applications. Investigators say the items were repackaged and shipped from several “intermediate locations”.”
—
“Vadim Konoshchenok, a Russian national living in Estonia, was stopped by police at the Estonian-Russian border … where law enforcement found 35 types of semiconductors, thousands of 6.5-millimetre bullets, made in Nebraska, and ammunition for sniper rifles.”
* Press Release: U.S. Attorney’s Office, Eastern District of New York
(U.S. Department of Justice, 13. Dec)
“A 16-count superseding indictment was unsealed yesterday in Brooklyn charging five Russian nationals, Yevgeniy Grinin, Aleksey Ippolitov, Boris Livshits, Svetlana Skvortsova and Vadim Konoshchenok with conspiracy and other charges related to a global procurement and money laundering network on behalf of the Russian government.”
—
“Konoshchenok, a suspected officer with Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), was arrested in Estonia on December 6, 2022 and will undergo extradition proceedings to the United States.”
—
“Based in the United States, Brayman and Yermolenko would fabricate shipping documents and invoices, repackaging and reshipping items to intermediate destinations around the world—including to Konoshchenok in Estonia—before eventually arriving in Russia. … Konoshchenok—a self identified “Colonel” in the FSB—would ship or physically smuggle U.S.-origin items from Estonia to Russia, including dual-use electronics, military-grade tactical ammunition and other export-controlled items. As alleged in the indictment, on October 27, 2022, Konoshchenok was stopped at the Estonian border with 35 different types of semiconductors and other electronic components ordered by Livshits, as well as thousands of U.S.-made 6.5mm bullets, which are used in military sniper rifles. On November 24, 2022, Konoshchenok was again stopped attempting to cross into Russia with approximately twenty cases containing thousands of U.S.-origin bullets, including tactical rounds and .338 military sniper rounds.”
What Baltic countries write about Ukraine and how it’s influenced by Russian propaganda
(Ukinform)
“In Estonia, Russian messages ended up in the information space mostly through citing persons who reproduce them. Common statements were connected with calls for peace negotiations with Russia, as well as manipulations concerning refugees. Among the phrases used to refer to Russia’s war against Ukraine, the online media of all three countries only occasionally use the phrase “special military operation,” but it is mostly used in quotation marks. The use of the word “conflict” in the context of war is still a rare option, too.”
Estonian govt approves technology partnership with the UK
(Baltic Times)
“The Estonian government at its sitting on Thursday approved a technology partnership between Estonia and the United Kingdom, which consists of both a general framework of the partnership and an action plan.”
https://www.baltictimes.com/estonian_govt_approves_technology_partnership_with_uk/
The challenging issue of remembering controversial figures
(New Eastern Europe)
“There is no model approach to dealing with how to commemorate controversial figures in the post-Soviet world. Estonia could provide an example for countries in the region on how to counter an often deafening silence.”
Finland’s openly fascist and racist party
(Helsinki Times)
“Sinimusta Liike, a newly registered political party, has morphed into an umbrella organisation for far-right movements in Finland. … the organisation is made up of members of the radical wing of the former youth organisation of the Finns Party, anti-immigrant street patrol group Soldiers of Odin and dissolved neo-Nazi group Nordic Resistance Movement.”
—
“Sinimusta Liike markets itself as a nationalist-radical party that aims to protect the interests of white Finns and foster the Finnish way of life.”
Estonia’s young people have more health problems than ten years ago
By Sten Hankewitz, Estonian World
“7% of children aged 0–14 had a long-standing illness or health problem in 2011, compared with 8% now. An even bigger increase is seen in the 15–29 age group: 14% of people of that age had a long-term illness or health problem in 2011, whereas now 17% do.”
https://estonianworld.com/life/estonias-young-people-have-more-health-problems-than-ten-years-ago/
Baltisakslased tõrkusid Eesti rahvusriigi idee vastu
(Novaator)
“Enne esimest maailmasõda olid baltisakslased Eesti aladel valitsev kiht, kellele kuulus nii poliitiline, majanduslik kui ka kultuuriline võim. Eesti iseseisvumine lõi nende jaoks kaardid sassi. Kiiresti hargnevate sündmuste keerises pakkusid kohalikud sakslased muu hulgas välja Saksamaa mõjusfääri kuuluva Balti hertsogiriigi idee. …”
https://novaator.err.ee/1608820996/nooremteadur-baltisakslased-torkusid-eesti-rahvusriigi-idee-vastu
Wednesday 14. December
To End the War in Ukraine, Follow Estonia, Not France
(Bloomberg)
“Before talking to Vladimir Putin, the West should listen to Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, not French President Emmanuel Macron.”
Estonia’s Top Diplomat Makes Pitch for Russia’s Total Isolation
By Ott Tammik, Bloomberg
“Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu, who has been among the most outspoken European Union officials in calling for the bloc to help Ukraine defend itself against the invasion, said the EU needed to go much further in providing Kyiv with weapons and funding — and isolating Moscow.”
—
“Step by step we have moved toward isolating Russia,” Reinsalu said in a phone interview on Monday. “Has it been enough? No, it has not been enough, because the war continues.”
—
“The Estonian minister represents the hawkish end within the EU — as other states have been more cautious since the start of the war. Reinsalu reinforced calls for sanctions across Russia’s banking sector and an oil-price cap of $30 to choke off energy profits — half of the current ceiling.”
The Kremlin’s ‘longtime friends’ in the Baltics - Russian oligarchs' ongoing business dealings in Latvia and Estonia
(Meduza | The Insider)
“Kremlin-linked Russian billionaires Iskander Makhmudov and Andrey Bokarev, who have served as contractors for the Russian Defense Ministry, are still doing business in Latvia directly and through intermediaries, a new investigation has found.”
—
“Bokarev and Makhmudov’s business ties extend into Estonia as well. … Tatiana Liksutova, one of Estonia’s richest women and the wife of Moscow Vice Mayor Maxim Liksutov, owned a 22-percent stake in Bokarev and Makhmudov's Cyprus-based offshore company Fredlake Holdings. The oligarchs have made billions of dollars from contracts with the Moscow Metro.”
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/12/09/the-kremlin-s-longtime-friends-in-the-baltic
“Estonia joins Eastern European states in protesting Macron remarks.” - ERR
Neo-Nazi Russian militia appeals for intelligence on Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania
(The Guardian | BNN)
“A neo-Nazi paramilitary group linked to the Kremlin has asked its members to submit intelligence on border and military activity in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, raising concerns over whether far-right Russian groups are planning an attack on Nato countries. The official Telegram channel for “Task Force Rusich” – currently fighting in Ukraine on behalf of the Kremlin and linked to the notorious Wagner Group – last week requested members to forward details relating to border posts and military movements in the three Baltic states …"
—
“Rusich is closely aligned to the Wagner Group, a military outfit run by a close ally of Vladimir Putin and now leading the Russian offensive to capture the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, currently the most fiercely contested battle of the conflict. … Rusich promotes itself as a sabotage and reconnaissance force …”
—
https://bnn-news.com/russian-neo-nazi-group-gathers-intelligence-information-in-baltic-states-240852
“Are neo-Nazi Russian groups planning attacks on NATO countries?” - Jerusalem Post
“Six K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers arrive in Estonia.” - ERR
The brutal methods of Russia’s Wagner Group
(The New Statesman)
“Since its founding Wagner has been deployed as a shadow arm of Russian foreign policy – used to prop up Kremlin allies around the world, always conveniently deniable and difficult to conclusively link to Putin. Wagner mercenaries turned up wherever there was a war in which the Kremlin had a stake. They have reportedly been deployed on battlefields in Ukraine, South Sudan and the Central African Republic. Wagner has been linked to several atrocities in Africa, such as a March 2022 massacre in the Malian town of Moura, in which government forces and Wagner soldiers allegedly murdered over 300 people during a campaign against Islamist rebels. The group also fought in support of Bashar al-Assad’s forces during the Syrian Civil War.”
“Ukraine war: Exiled governor reports strike on 'Wagner HQ’.” - BBC
“Bombing of Putin’s Most Feared Fighters Infuriates Russia.” - Daily Beast
“Founder of the Wagner Group sent a bloody hammer to the seat of the European Parliament.” - MSN, 25. Nov
“TikTok Videos Glorifying Wagner Mercenary Group Viewed By Millions.” - The Moscow Times
Danske Bank pleads guilty to resolve Estonia money-laundering investigation
(ERR | Euronews)
“Denmark's largest bank, pleaded guilty to bank fraud in Estonia and agreed to forfeit $2 billion as part of the settlement … According to admissions and court documents, between 2008 and 2016, the bank offered banking services through its branch in Estonia, Danske Bank Estonia."
—
“The branch had a lucrative business line serving non-resident customers known as the NRP .. Its employees conspired with NRP customers to shield the true nature of their transactions, including by using shell companies that obscured actual ownership of the funds.”
—
https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/12/14/danske-bk-moneylaundering
“Estonia looks into claiming share of Danske Bank money-laundering fine.” - ERR
U.S. is poised to send a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine
(New York Times)
“The United States is poised to approve sending its most advanced ground-based air defense system to Ukraine, responding to the country’s urgent request to help defend against an onslaught of Russian missile and drone attacks, two U.S. officials said on Tuesday.”
—
“Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III could approve a directive as early as this week to transfer one Patriot battery already overseas to Ukraine, the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. Final approval would then rest with President Biden.”
“US Delivers Signal Emitters to Ukraine to Deceive Russian Pilots.” - The Defense Post
Lithuania Extends State of Emergency at Border With Belarus & Russia Until March 2023
(Schengen Visa Info)
“There is no end in sight to the war in Ukraine caused by the Russian Federation – crimes against humanity are committed every day, and attacks against the energy infrastructure are intensifying. The prolonged insecure and unstable geopolitical situation continues to create conditions for the authorities of Russia and Belarus to carry out hybrid attacks and various kinds of provocations against Lithuania,” the statement of Minister Agnes Bilotaitė reads.”
“Norway Starts to See Russian Spies Everywhere.” - New York Times
What Kids Learn In Belarus' 'Patriotic' Clubs
RFERL)
“Loyalty To Lukashenka, That 'Belarusians Are Russians,' And How To Assemble A Machine Gun. … Since the beginning of the academic year, almost 20 "military-patriotic" clubs have been created for schoolchildren, and the position of a special "military-patriotic" educator has been introduced in schools.”
https://www.rferl.org/a/minsk-patriotic-clubs-russian-identity-belarus/32167750.html
Putinists Angry at Ukrainians Because They May Live Better than Russians Do
By Paul Goble
“Russian ‘patriots’ aren’t worried by the fact that the Ukrainians wanted to secede and life separately.” That’s not a problem, and “God bless them.” But these Russians “very much fear that Ukrainians might start to live better” than Russians do, something completely unacceptable.”
—
“That is because the cultural and historical “closeness” of Russians and Ukrainians makes this situation very different than what has happened with the Baltic countries. “To hell with them,” Russians think, because “it remains unclear whether they were ever ours or just pretended to be.” But “how dare the Ukrainians imagine that they are smarter than we are” and then prove it?”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/12/putinists-angry-at-ukrainians-not-over.html
- Putin’s War -
Ukraine may have the military capability to retake Crimea
(NBC News)
“… but some officials are concerned any large-scale offensive that threatens Russia’s hold on the peninsula could push Putin to use nuclear weapons. … a U.S. official said that Ukraine has no near-term objective to retake Crimea and that a military offensive is not imminent but did acknowledge that Ukraine has shown resilience and perseverance throughout the war.”
Satellite Images Of Russian-Occupied Crimea Show Targets for Ukraine
(RFERL)
“The significance of Crimea as a launching pad for Russian strikes on mainland Ukraine has increased following the retreat of Russian forces a month ago from the city of Kherson -- the only regional capital they had captured since Moscow launched a large-scale invasion in February -- and the eastern bank of the Dnieper River in the surrounding area."
—
“Journalists from RFE/RL's Crimea.Realities have created a database that identifies more than 150 Russian military sites on the peninsula. Along with defense analysts and colleagues from Schemes, the investigative unit of RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, they reviewed fresh footage from the U.S. satellite imagery company Planet Labs depicting the most important facilities. …”
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-crimea-satellite-russia-targets/32176768.html
“Russia is building a vast network of trenches, traps and obstacles to slow Ukraine’s momentum.” - New York Times
“Crimea is Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s greatest bargaining chip.” - Guardian
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
14. And 15. December
(ISW)
“Russia may be setting conditions to conduct a new offensive against Ukraine— possibly against Kyiv—in winter 2023. Such an attack is extraordinarily unlikely to succeed. A Russian attack from Belarus is not imminent at this time.”
—
“Putin’s alluded decision to postpone his annual address to the Russian Federation Assembly indicates he remains uncertain of his ability to shape the Russian information space amidst increasing criticism of his conduct of the invasion of Ukraine.”
—
“Ukrainian air defense units shot down all the Shahed drones that Russian forces launched at Ukraine on December 14.”
—
“ Russia’s military presence in Belarus has been growing since fall 2022.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-14
And:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-15
“Russia carries out more mass strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.” - The Guardian
“The Russian Army Is Preparing for a Fresh Attack on Ukraine.” - Foreign Policy
“is Putin actually close to ordering a nuclear strike? Probably not.” - National Interest
“Sanction-Busting Russian Ships Are Going Under the Radar.” - Foreign Policy
“7 Unexpected Ways Western Sanctions Have Affected Life in Russia.” - Moscow Times
“Safety of Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant hangs in the balance.” - The Guardian
“How Bad Will The Ukraine War Get Before Putin Quits?” - 19fortyfive
“The bloody fate of Russia's 200th Motor Rifle Brigade in Ukraine.” - Washington Post
Russian Women Struggle After Men Flee Ukraine-War Draft
(RFERL)
“Hundreds of thousands of Russian men are reported to have fled the country since Moscow announced a "partial" mobilization in September. Many left family and loved ones behind. Their wives and partners have been left with the burden of raising a family alone, often without a strong support system or sufficient finances.”
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-war-draft-exile-women/32178492.html
Cornered on Ukraine, Putin ditches his annual news conference
(AP)
“President Vladimir Putin has ditched his annual marathon news conference following a series of battlefield setbacks in Ukraine — a tacit acknowledgment that the Russian leader’s war has gone badly wrong. Putin typically uses the year-end ritual to polish his image, answering a wide range of questions on domestic and foreign policy to demonstrate his grip on details and give the semblance of openness even though the event is tightly stage-managed.”
—
“But this year, with his troops on the back foot in Ukraine, it could be impossible to avoid uncomfortable questions about the Russian military’s blunders even at a highly choreographed event.”
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