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15 September, 2017


✔︎ Estonia: Going on a Bear Hunt
(Aljazeera video report)
[An excellent 25 minute video. A must watch.]


✔︎ We start with ‘Propaganda 101", followed by 'Zapad News', then the regular news listings 


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- Propaganda 101 -
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- Russia the Gaslighter
by Urve Eslas
(CEPA)
“Estonia has experienced the Kremlin’s gaslighting for many years. Beginning with the restoration of Estonian independence in 1991—and especially after joining the EU and NATO—Moscow has pushed three main narratives: that Estonia was never occupied by the Soviet Union but joined it voluntarily; that Estonia does not contribute the required 2 percent of its GDP to NATO; and that Estonia is a fascist country. All these narratives are false [of course!]."


- Kui erinevalt kujutatakse Balti riike?
(Propastop)
"Ning muidugi on fašistid! See on etikett, mida kleebitakse propagandameedias kõikide Balti riikide külge. Kremli meelest võltsitakse kõigis kolmes ajalugu, mahitatakse neonatse. Viimane selline meediarünnak oli metsavendade video kajastus, kus fašismis süüdistati kõiki kolme."


- Propaganda should not hide behind media freedom
(ERR)
"With the opportunity to obtain information from numerous sources comes the responsibility to distinguish between truth and falsehood, between opinion and fact. We must learn and adapt to the overburdened information field. Something served as news may not be.” - Minister of Foreign Affairs Sven Mikser


Fake news busters
(Politico-Europe)
"As Germans head to the polls, efforts are under way to prevent false information from swaying the election."


- RT, Sputnik and Russia’s New Theory of War
(New York Times Magazine)


- Three things you should know about RT and Sputnik
(EU vs Disinfo)


- Comparing Russian and American government ‘propaganda’
(Meduza)


- Moscow Invents Controversy in Riga
by Mārtiņš Kaprāns
(CEPA)
"A longstanding Kremlin strategy is to create tensions between Latvia and its Western allies by delegitimizing Latvian policies it opposes and framing them as the manifestation of aggressive Latvian nationalism and Russophobia. Twice in August, pro-Kremlin websites used this strategy to misrepresent the comments of Western public officials who allegedly criticized Latvia’s policy toward its Russophone minority and their history."





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- Zapad News -
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- Zapadiks loodud tinglik vastane Veišnooria on hakanud oma elu elama
(ERR)

- Putin vaatleb õppusi Eesti lähistel
(Postimees)
"Venemaa president Vladimir Putin külastab käimasolevaid Venemaa-Valgevene suurõppusi Zapad-2017 18. septembril Leningradi oblastis, tõenäoliselt Luga polügoonil."

- The Zapad mind game
by Edward Lucas
(CEPA)
"Russia has already reaped the benefit of its mind games, portraying itself as a strategic equal to the West, as the wronged party in a geopolitical contest, and as a genuine threat to the frontline states of northeastern Europe."

- All quiet on the eastern front
(Politico - Europe)
"From far away, the situation in Estonia or the Baltic countries seems worse than what it actually is, living here,” says Merilin Piipuu, who manages the Museum of Occupations in Tallinn, Estonia."
--
"Asked if he expects war to break out, Rokas Pukinskas, the spokesperson of the Lithuanian state border guard service, responds, “Absolutely not.”

- Zapadi eesmärk on hirmutamine | Zapad to 'intimidate' Nato allies
(ERR | EU Observer | others)
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- Zapadist osa võtnud Vene tuumapommitaja põrutas lennurajalt välja
(Postimees)




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Friday 15. Sept.
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- Levada centre poll on the Molotov-Ribbentrop secret protocols
(Disinformation Review)

Google Translate from Russian:

Original article in Russian:



EU: Euro finance ministers meet in Tallinn
(eu2017.ee | Deutsche Welle | others)
"Eurozone members have begun two days of informal talks.”
--
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- Superministeerium kui monument Exceli tabelile
(Postimees)



- Korteris saun: Kuidas valida asukohta ja mida silmas pidada
(Moodnekodu)



- Mida tähendab vigastus Sildaru olümpiašanssidele?
(Postimees)

- Skier Kelly Sildaru to return to Estonia following injury in New Zealand
(ERR)



- Setomaal on oma raha
[5. augustil oli Luhamaal 'Seto Kuningriik’ päev. Seto Kuningriigi päev on setode iga-aastane kogukondlik pidustus, mis väärtustab kohalikke kultuuritraditsioone ja nende kandjaid. Valitakse järgnevaks aastaks uus setode kuningas, jne. Hea sugulane oli mulle kirjutanud et Seto Bankal oli selline väike puust maja ja sealt oli saadav Seto raha, mida saab kasutada Setomaa poodides. - Aavo]




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Thursday 14. Sept.
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- Põhja-Korea tuumakatsetuse lööklained jõudsid ka Eestisse
(Postimees)
"Pommi põhjustatud tõuked olid niivõrd tugevad, et ulatusid ka Eestisse. Korea poolsaarelt siia jõudmiseks kulus pikilainetel veidi üle 10 minuti. Kuigi siia jõudes olid need inimese jaoks märkamatult nõrgad, olid need siiski piisavalt tugevad, et salvestuda meie seismoloogiajaamade seismogrammidel."



- Spy who ensnared Eston Kohver in September of 2014 now in prison
(Postimees)



- US, British forces showcase skills in Estonia
(U.S. Army)



Finland: Talvivaara Mining Company's emissions have devastated Lakes Kivijärvi and Nuasjärvi
(Helsinki Times)
"The Environmental Change Research Unit (ECRU) of the University of Helsinki has reported that emissions from the zinc and nickel mine have transformed the lakes completely into stratified pools of salt water with all but lifeless bottoms."



- Kidnappers release Finn abducted in Kabul
(Yle)
"The woman was taken hostage in Kabul, the Afghan capital, at the same time as a German colleague and an Afghan bodyguard were killed. The woman was working as an aid worker for the Swedish Operation Mercy organisation.”



- As Brexit Talks Stall, The Hunt Is On For European Passports
(Worldcrunch)
" 60% of British citizens would like to be European after Brexit."




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Wednesday 13. Sept.
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Estonia's state budget to exceed €10 billion for first time in history
(ERR)
“… an increase of at least 3.6 percent. … The state budget strategy for 2018-2021 was drawn up in spring, the volume of which is more than €40 billion and according to which the government's four major goals is to increase the population of Estonia, increase societal welfare and cohesion, promote economic growth and strengthen Estonia's security."



ReportGdański sadamasse saabus üle tuhande ühiku USA relvastust
(Postimees)
“… seal hulgas tanke Abrams, lahingumasinaid Bradley ja haubitsaid."

Foto- AGENCJA GAZETA/Reuters/Scanpix 

- Fearing Russia, Sweden holds biggest war games in 20 years
(Reuters)
"Sweden will simulate an attack from the east on the Baltic island of Gotland, near the Swedish mainland.” 
[And very important for Eesti!]



- Lithuania mulling power system synchronization without Estonia, Latvia
(ERR)
"According to information from the European Network of Transmission System Operators (ENTSO-E), Russia is building a new line at its border with Estonia, thus reinforcing its domestic lines, and a line at its border with Belarus, which, in turn, will build lines from Astravets Nuclear Power Plant, thus forming a new electricity ring. Russia is also taking steps to ensure the independence of the electricity system of its Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad by building new combined and heat power plants."




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Tuesday 12. Sept.
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✔︎ Joogivees leiduv mikroplast on tõsine probleem, Eesti kohta napib andmeid
(ERR)
"Suur osa maailma joogiveest on saastunud väikestest plastiosakestest. ERR Novaatori palvel ajalehes The Guardian avaldatud analüüsi tulemusi kommenteerinud keemilise ja bioloogilise füüsika instituudi teadlaste sõnul pole põhjust järeldustes kahelda. Samas nentis Margit Heinlaan kollegidega, et Eestis pole mikroplasti probleemiga praktiliselt üldse tegeletud. Uuringuid napib ka selle pikaajalise ohtlikkuse kohta."

Plastic fibres found in tap water around the world, study reveals
(The Guardian)



- European Commission: Tallinn-Helsinki tunnel not viable without Rail Baltic
(ERR)
“… the Rail Baltic railway project must first be completed, as without it, the tunnel would not be economically viable …"



- NATO in Europe needs 'military Schengen' to rival Russian mobility
(Deutsche Welle)
"Putin is able to move a lot of stuff real fast which is what got my attention and made me start thinking, how do we achieve at least the same speed that he has," Hodges explained. PreviousZapad drills, which are held every four years, honed the Russian ability to launch the massive "snap exercises" seen ahead of the invasion of Crimea in 2014, and earlier, the aggression against Georgia in 2008.”
"When Hodges, on the other hand, wants to move tanks or other heavy vehicles and weaponry across Europe, he needs to stop at every national - sometimes regional - border and deal with unique controls.”
"I think most people would be astounded to find out what we have to do," he said, "to submit a list of all the vehicles, the drivers, what's in every truck - which they don't do with gigantic commercial trucks moving back and forth across borders." 



- Estonia’s ‘Russian Question’
(Intersection - 6. September)
"Winning the vote of Russian speakers has long been a regular feature of elections at every level in Estonia. This comes as no surprise in a country where 25 percent of the population consider themselves ethnic Russians, according to the 2011 census. The share of Estonia’s ethnic Russian population reaches 95% in some towns in the northeast. [Sillamäe is one]."




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Monday 11. Sept.
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- Ambassadors of Baltic states ask French Le Monde paper to stop calling them "former Soviet republics”
(Baltic Times)



- Estonia's ID Card And The March Of Cryptography
(Forbes)
“… the issue is indeed that a group of international researchers, leveraging advances in computing power, were able to demonstrate a weakness in one of the cryptographic algorithms used by the (Estonian) identity card, something to be expected with ever-increasing computing power."
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“… researchers had followed the traditional practice of “responsible disclosure” in which they notified the relevant Estonian agencies through official channels and are giving them time to implement mitigation measures prior to the researchers presenting their work at a forthcoming security conference.”
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 "This is the way security is supposed to work – researchers identify a new weakness made possible by advancing computing power or algorithmic advances, report it and give the organization time to correct it."

- Ilves: Our e-state and digital services are unique in the world
(Postimees)



- Taxify vaidlustab Londoni transpordiameti otsuse
(ERR)
"Taxify kaebab edasi Londoni transpordiameti (TfL) otsuse tühistada Taxify poolt omandatud City Drive Services tegevusluba ja jätkab püüdlusi Londoni turule sisenemiseks."

- London suspends Estonian ride sharing service Taxify
(BNE)



- Putin’s Policy in Post-Soviet States Failing Because He Thinks All Leaders are for Sale, New Book Suggests
(Windows on Eurasia)



Estonian President emphasises necessity of conventional defence spending
(BNN)
"Sometimes it’s a piece of metal travelling at 700 m/s that makes the difference."




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- Russia -
"Trust No One"
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Russian Journalist Yulia Latynina Flees Russia After Attacks
(The Moscow Times | RFERL)
"A frequent critic of the Kremlin, Latynina has said the harassment results from an atmosphere of hostility towards opposition politicians and journalists actively encouraged by Russian authorities. … She said her parents had also left the country." 



✔︎ Intervjuu: Venemaa teisitimõtleja ja endise oligarhi Mihhail Hodorkovski
(Postimees)
"Tallinnast ja Vilniusest on viimastel aastatel kujunenud vene opositsionääride kokkusaamispaigad, kuna siia saavad sõita need, kelle režiim on Venemaalt juba lahkuma sundinud, samas pole siia kaugele sõita ka neil, kes Venemaal elavad. Viimase aasta jooksul on siin olnud sage külaline ka Šveitsis elav Mihhail Hodorkovski, kes enne Putini režiimiga tülliminekut kuulus maailma rikkaimate inimeste hulka."



✔︎ Interview: Russian dissident and former oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky
(Postimees)
"Tallinn and Vilnius have become the meeting places of Russian opposition leaders in recent years as they constitute a middle ground for those who have been forced to leave Russia and those travelling from the country. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who was among the wealthiest people in the world before falling out with Putin and today lives in Switzerland, has been a frequent visitor in the past year."



- Russia gripped by hoax bomb threats
(Deutsche Welle | RFERL)
"For days, a wave of anonymous hoax bomb threats has been sweeping through cities across Russia. The telephone calls have led to the evacuation of tens of thousands. But the reason for the threats remains a mystery."



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Recapping Sunday's local elections
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- In Moscow, Putin’s opponents chalk up a symbolic victory
(Politico-Europe)
" Russia’s liberal opposition is on a high after achieving a series of unprecedented victories in the Kremlin’s backyard at local council elections — including in the wealthy Moscow district where Vladimir Putin cast his own ballot."
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"The United Democrats coalition — spearheaded by Dmitry Gudkov, a former opposition lawmaker, and Yabloko, Russia’s oldest anti-Putin party — claimed 14 districts in the September 10 elections, in some cases winning with a landslide. Opposition candidates held just one district before Sunday’s vote."
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"The majority of the districts won by the coalition lie in the very heart of Moscow."

As Moscow Votes Against Putin, His Cronies Turn On Each Other
by Anna Nemtsova
(The Daily Beast)
"Nearly 50 percent of voters in Moscow’s central Khamovniki district elected 33-year-old Azar, an independent reporter from Russia’s legendary Novaya Gazeta, who had no experience as a politician. And how many seats did candidates from President Vladimir Putin’s Unite Russia party win in Khamovniki? Zero."

- United Russia sweeps gubernatorial races, while ‘United Democrats’ break through in Moscow
(Meduza)
"On September 10, local elections took place in 82 of 85 regions across Russia. There were governors’ races in 16 federated states, including Buryatia, Udmurtia, Mordovia, Karelia, the Sverdlovsk and Novgorod regions, Perm Krai, the Republic of Mari El, and Sevastopol (in Crimea)."

- Sunday’s Elections in North Caucasus ‘Most Scandalous in Many Years,’
(Winsow on Eurasia)

- At a Russian polling station, phantom voters cast ballots for the ‘Tsar'
(Reuters)
"At polling station no. 333 in the Russian city of Vladikavkaz, Reuters reporters only counted 256 voters casting their ballots in a regional election on Sunday.”
"When the official results for polling station no. 333 were declared, the turnout was first given as 1,331 before being revised up to 1,867 on Tuesday. That is more than seven times higher than the number of voters counted by Reuters - with 73 percent of the votes going to United Russia, the party of President Vladimir Putin."

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13 September, 2017



The Zapad 2017 show begins 14. September.


Delfi: Zapad Teemaleht

Õhtuleht: Zapad Teemaleht

CEPA: The Road to Zapad

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✔︎ Decoding Zapad-2017
by Kalev Stoicescu
(International Centre for Defence and Security - Tallinn)
[An excellent analysis and summary by Mr. Stoicescu.]



✔︎ All quiet on the eastern front
(Politico - Europe)
"In Baltics, residents unperturbed by Russia’s Zapad military maneuvers.”
"An antiques shop owner in (Narva), who goes only by the name Natalia, also describes the town as “peaceful.” 
"From far away, the situation in Estonia or the Baltic countries seems worse than what it actually is, living here,” says Merilin Piipuu, who manages the Museum of Occupations in Tallinn, Estonia."
--
"Asked if he expects war to break out, Rokas Pukinskas, the spokesperson of the Lithuanian state border guard service, responds, “Absolutely not.”


"What is less known in the West is that there are actually two Zapad drills. There is the Belarus-Russia joint military exercise from September 14 to 20, mostly on the territory of Belarus. But at the same time there is a separate Russian exercise on Russian territory that we know very little of.” 
Map: Raam op Rusland

- Russia’s Military Drills Near NATO Border Raise Fears of Aggression
by Dr. Philip Karber
(The Potomac Foundation - August 2017)
“Recognizing the Russian Problem and NATO and US preparations ahead of Russia’s ZAPAD 2017 Exercise."
Also:




- Porošenko: Venemaa valmistub sõjaks
(Postimees)
"Ukraina president Petro Porošenko hoiatas, et sõjaline suurõppus Zapad näitab, kuidas Venemaa president Vladimir Putin valmistab vägesid ette sõjaks Ida-Euroopas …"



- USA kindral: USA väed jõuavad 24 tunniga igale poole maailmas
(ERR)
"USA transpordiväejuhatuse ülem kindral Darren McDew ütles visiidil Tallinnas, et tuleval nädalal algavaid Venemaa õppusi Zapad jälgitakse tähelepanelikult ja pingete leevendamiseks võiks Moskva olla oma tegevuses läbipaistvam. Kindral lisas, et erinevalt teistest riikidest suudavad USA väed olla 24 tunniga kohal igal pool maailmas."



- Why does the joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise Zapad 2017 cause concern?
(Raam op Rusland)
"What is less known in the West is that there are actually two Zapad drills. There is the Belarus-Russia joint military exercise from September 14 to 20, mostly on the territory of Belarus. But at the same time there is a separate Russian exercise on Russian territory that we know very little of. Belarus is responsible only for the planning of Zapad on its own territory and is not involved in the drills in Russia."



- Russia threatens Finland, Baltic states
by Petri Mäkelä
(Medium - login required)
"So far it has been confirmed that Russia is moving several VDV airborne units around … Strangest one so far has been the deployment of the Ryazan paratroopers into Olyanovsk, that is located far north near the Finnish border."
--
"In the Kaliningrad region Russian authorities have began a large scale call up of the reservists. Most reservists and even military aged men, that have not served before, were issued orders to report for service."
"There are also indicators that large parts of the 20th Combined Arms Army are moving towards the Leningrad region, that is the home for the 6th Army. The combined force would have most of the combat strength of three separate armies.”
"From the currently known deployments it certainly looks like the focus of the operations around Zapad 2017 will be aimed up north. In this scenario, there would be an invasion force capable of seriously threatening Finland via the Karelian isthmus, coupled with supporting forces in the north.”



Zapadi puhul on võtmeküsimus Poola-Leedu piir
(ERR)
“… Venemaa suurõppuse Zapad 2017 valguses on Balti riikide julgeoleku võtmeküsimus Poola-Leedu piiril asuva Suwalki koridori turvalisus."



Podcast: War Porn
Brian Whitmore, Mark Galeotti, Michael Kofman
(RFERL)
"It's saber-rattling! It's a psyop! It's Zapad!”


A Twitter parody account


- Grybauskaitė: Zapad on mõeldud Leedu hirmutamiseks
(Postimees)



- Zapad's goal is 'to frighten us'- Lithuanian president
(Baltic Times)
“… this is what the goal of the Zapad exercise is: to frighten us, to break our will to defend ourselves so that we are paralyzed and can do nothing in our state …"



- Russia to use "Zapad-2017" exercise to intimidate its neighbours
(Jane's Intelligence Weekly)
“… a key political objective of Zapad-2017 is for Russia to intimidate its eastern European neighbours with a display of its upgraded military capabilities."
--
"According to the Baltic States, the last Zapad-series exercise in 2013 involved 75,000 military personnel, six times higher than Russia disclosed."



Zapad 2017: The Information War (for now)
(OSW)
"Russia treats the Zapad strategic exercises, which have been held every four years since 2009, as part of its information war with the West each time. However, whereas between 2009 and 2013 the propaganda impact of the reports about the exercises was largely local, limited mainly to the three Baltic states and Poland, as a result of the Russian aggression towards Ukraine and the three years and counting of war in the Donbas in 2017, it has now become one of the main factors affecting the relations of Russia with all the North Atlantic Alliance …”
"Russia’s use of the Zapad-2017 exercises as the starting point for a military operation – the occupation of Belarus, a strike at Ukraine or even blocking the Suwalki Gap (which the exercises’ political scenario, disclosed on 29 August, might suggest), and the possible amputation of the three Baltic states from the rest of the NATO area – should be considered as extremely unlikely …"



- Saksamaa hinnangul võtab Zapadist osa hoopis 100,000 sõdurit
(Postimees)
"Vaieldamatult on tegu venelaste jõudemonstratsiooniga,» ütles Saksa kaitseminister Ursula von der Leyen ELi kaitseministrite kohtumise raames Tallinnas ajakirjanikele."



Moskva: Berliini väide Zapadi mahu kohta on üllatav
(ERR)

- France, Germany Denounce Russia's Strategy Of 'Intimidation,' Dispute Size Of War Games
(RFERL)
"We will monitor the [Zapad 2017] activity closely and we are vigilant but also calm, because we don't see any imminent threat against any NATO ally," Jens Stoltenberg said during a visit to a NATO contingent in Tapa, Estonia.” 



Russia showing off 'power' says Germany's Ursula von der Leyen
(Deutsche Welle | Warsaw Institute)
"Around 100,000 Russian soldiers will take part in the upcoming Zapad 2017 drill, despite Moscow's claims that the drill will only have 12,700 participants."
- China Quietly Looms Over Zapad Exercises
(The Diplomat)
"Russia may be entertaining provocative action with the exercise, but anything Russia could do would undermine China’s economic interests in the region and, by extension, Russia’s relationship with its so-called strategic partner."



- Three experts answer three questions about Zapad 2017
Joerg Forbrig | Janusz Bugajski | Jaroslav Naď
(Visegrad Insight)



- Once Putin’s War Games Begin in Belarus, Will He Ever Leave
by Anna Nemtsova
(The Daily Beast)



- Is Lukashenka Worried about the Loyalty of the Belarusian Siloviki?
By Paul Goble
(Window on Eurasia)
"Over the last week, (Belarusian President Alyaksandr) Lukashenka has increased salaries, pensioners, and benefits for the military and the police by as much as 40 percent, a move that means the recipients will have an additional reason for loyalty to him since the increases will bring their standard of living close to Russian counterparts …
"Nikolay Statkevich, a leader of the Belarusian opposition, says that “for the Belarusian army, the Russian president [Putin] is more authoritative than his Belarusian colleague [Lukashenka]” and that such a balance of attitudes makes the upcoming exercise even more dangerous than it otherwise might be …"



Military expert Starykov: Zapad-2017 war games in Belarus designed to demonstrate Russia’s military power
(Euromaidan Press)
“(Military expert Oleh) Starykov claims the greatest danger for Ukraine is aviation training drills carried out by Russian pilots."
--
“Russia fears a global strike. The Kremlin really believes that NATO countries are preparing a global strike that will destroy Russia in a matter of minutes….so Moscow has to show the USA that it can respond. Russians believe there are three wars. The first war is the war with Ukraine; the second involves preparations for a nuclear war, and the third war is aimed at combating terrorist operations. If we look at Zapad-2017 more closely, aviation drills carried out by Russian pilots would be dangerous for our country. We need to close the northern zone.” concluded Starykov.




Zapad military exercise kicks off in one week
(TV Infoservice)
"The maneuvers have caused an unprecedented stir in the European press. Over the past 9 months, they have been mentioned about 800,000 times. Experts point out the media hype comes as no surprise. The drills take place against the backdrop of a difficult military and political situation in the region."
--
"The total number of personnel participating in the Zapad 2017 drills is 12,700 people. About 10,200 military will be involved in the maneuvers in the territory of Belarus."
--
"NATO experts, as well as a number of observers from Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Estonia, Sweden, and Norway are expected to arrive in Belarus. A record number of representatives of foreign media will attend the exercise, too. At the moment the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is processing about 270 appeals from foreign media."
https://www.tvr.by/eng/news/obshchestvo/rovno_nedelya_ostalas_do_nachala_ucheniya_zapad_2017/





Minsk struggling to reassure its neighbors about the West-2017 military exercises
(Belarus Digest)

 [A March 2017 article reported that Zapad would be "smaller than anticipated".]



No interest from Western partners in objective information on Zapad 2017
(Belsat)
"One of the journalists asked whether Belarus' efforts to ensure the openness of the military exercise were successful. “These efforts would be successful if our western partners did not attempt to artificially create tensions, if they had a genuine interest in obtaining the objective information about the exercise. We must regretfully state that there is no genuine and real interest.”



Russian ‘polite people’ detain Belarus activist
(Belsat)
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