Eastern Europe warns against a 2nd ‘Munich betrayal’

By Jamie Dettmer

(Politico Europe)

“Leaders from Central Europe, the Baltics and Scandinavia … have an innately different and much more stomach-churning perspective on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine compared to their Western European counterparts.”

—

“Countries that were once under the Russian boot — or were anxious neighbors of a bullying Soviet Union — have reacted to the war with what psychologists call a survival response. And this is informed by not just the recent past but a history stretching back centuries, impelling these countries to commit to a total and uncompromised Russian defeat.”

—

“They see their future as inextricably bound to Ukraine’s, and a Russian win — partial or otherwise — as their defeat also. For them, there can be no frozen conflict, and no negotiations that could leave Russian President Vladimir Putin an opportunity to regroup his forces and come back to haunt them.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/central-europe-warn-second-munich-betrayal-mateusz-morawiecki-war-ukraine-munich-security-conference/

“Ukraine war pulls NATO center of gravity eastward.” - Christian Science Monitor

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Holds News Conference with Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pekvur

(C-SPAN)

[Video, 21 minutes, in Tallinn]

https://www.c-span.org/video/?526122-101/secretary-austin-holds-news-conference-estonian-defense-minister

Transcript of Austin/Pekvur News Conference - US Department of Defense

“Stop Russia now to prevent a wider conflict, Estonia warns.” - AP

“United States ready to defend Baltic allies, defense secretary says.” - Reuters

“Kallas: US contribution to security of Estonia, Europe steadfast.” - Postimees

“Austin lubas Eestile vankumatut toetust julgeoleku tagamisel.” - ERR

“Milley: Venemaa ega Ukraina ei saavuta sel aastal oma sõjalisi eesmärke.” - ERR

'Don't Play With Us.' 

Estonia Sends Message To Russia With Ukraine Aid

(Time)

“Relative to its size, no nation has been more aggressive in helping Ukraine than Estonia. The small Baltic state has provided Ukraine with nearly $396 million in aid—about half of its defense budget and more than 1% of its gross domestic product. The donations place Estonia, which has just 7,000 active-duty soldiers in its military, among the world leaders. While European giants like Germany had to be coaxed into delivering modern battle tanks to Kyiv, Estonia has handed over whatever it could: anti-tank missiles, howitzers, grenade-launchers, mortars, ammunition, vehicles, communication devices, helmets, body armor, and military food rations. The nation of 1.3 million has taken in more than 60,000 refugees from Ukraine, a higher percentage than any other nation in the European Union."

--

"The outsized support is intended to send a clear message to the Kremlin. “Don’t play with us,” said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pekvur during a joint-press conference in Tallinn Thursday with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.”

https://time.com/6256280/estonia-aid-russia-ukraine/

Defense Secretary Austin says US would enter conflict if Russia attacks Estonia

(Fox News, 16. Feb)

“Lloyd stated that President Biden's commitment to NATO's collective defense agreement is ‘ironclad’. … Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III spoke Thursday at a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, Belgium. The conference focused heavily on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is approaching its one year anniversary.”

https://www.foxnews.com/us/defense-secretary-austin-says-us-would-enter-conflict-if-russia-attacks-estonia

NATO Secretary General to visit Estonia

(NATO press release)

“On 23-24 February 2023, the NATO Secretary General, Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, is visiting Tallinn, Estonia. He will meet with the Prime Minister of Estonia, Ms. Kaja Kallas and the President of the European Commission, Ms. Ursula von der Leyen. Together, they will take part in the Wreath-Laying Ceremony at the Monument to the War of Independence and the Military Parade at the Freedom Square, on the occasion of Estonia’s Independence Day.”

—

“The Secretary General will also attend the Military Parade at the Freedom Square and meet with Ukrainian soldiers who are training in Estonia.”

https://nato.cmail20.com/t/r-e-tjkuhkhk-bjlhjdyjuh-r/

____________

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Friday 17. February 2023

 

Kallas Müncheni julgeolekukonverentsil: Putini ja kõigi teiste kurjategijate kohtupäev tuleb

(Postimees)

“Eesti valitsusjuht arutles täna Müncheni julgeolekukonverentsil selle üle, miks on oluline Venemaa kuritegude üle kohut mõista. Kaja Kallas rõhutas oma sõnavõtus, et kõik, kes on agressioonikuriteo taga, peavad kandma vastutust. «Agressioonikuritegu on Venemaa juhtkonna kuritegu. Putin ning kõik teised kurjategijad peavad teadma, et nende kohtupäev tuleb,» märkis ta. «See on ka küsimus sellest, kuidas mitte lasta ajaloo õudustel korduda,» lisas Kallas.”

—

“Peaminister tõi esile, et Venemaa pole seni kunagi pidanud oma kuritegude eest vastutust kandma – vastupidi, igale agressioonile on järgnenud järgmine. «Meil olid Nürnbergi ja Tokyo tribunalid, aga Moskva tribunali pole kunagi olnud ja see on Venemaale loonud mulje, et ta on karistamatu.”

https://maailm.postimees.ee/7715306/kallas-muncheni-julgeolekukonverentsil-putini-ja-koigi-teiste-kurjategijate-kohtupaev-tuleb

“Kallas kohtumisel Macroniga: teeme kõik selleks, et Ukraina sõja võidaks.”

How do elections work in Estonia?

(Estonian World Review, 13. Feb)

“Riigikogu (Estonian parliament) elections on March 5th.”

https://www.eesti.ca/how-do-elections-work-in-estonia/article59996

“Peaministriuuring: Kallas jätkab selgelt populaarseima peaministrikandidaadina.” - ERR

EDF commander: EKRE’s Helme spreading slander, based on lies

(ERR)

“EDF commander Gen. Martin Herem said that Martin Helme (EKRE), leader of the right-wing Conservative People's Party and former finance minister, made false statements in the daily Postimees about Estonia's defense capabilities. Herem said that he and the deputy commander of the defense forces, Major General Veiko-Vello Palm, had to repeatedly dispute false claims, and yet they have been accused of meddling in politics.”

https://news.err.ee/1608889325/edf-commander-helme-spreading-slander-based-on-lies

“Herem: Helme levitab valedel põhinevat laimu.” - ERR

Finland's NATO membership is now in "Turkey's hands", Finnish president says

(Reuters | Yle)

“… after the Finnish parliament agreed it would ratify NATO's founding treaties on Feb. 28. … Nato membership will cost Finland 70–100 million euros annually.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finnish-parliament-sets-date-vote-nato-ratification-2023-02-17/

—

https://yle.fi/a/74-20018562

“NATO Chief Tells Turkey It's Time To Ratify Membership For Sweden, Finland.” - RFERL

“President Sauli Niinistö: Finland will join Nato by July.” - Yle

“NATO chief unfazed if Finland, Sweden join separately.” - AP

NATO: Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to leave office in October

(Reuters | IB Times)

"The mandate of Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has been extended three times and he has served for a total of almost nine years," spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said. "The secretary general's term comes to an end in October of this year and he has no intention to seek another extension of his mandate."

https://www.reuters.com/world/nato-extend-stoltenbergs-term-april-2024-welt-am-sonntag-2023-02-12/

—

https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/nato-chiefs-departure-plan-relaunches-succession-race-1712659

“The Race Is on to Be NATO’S Next Chief.” - Foreign Policy

“UK defense secretary eyes NATO’s top job.” - Politico Europe

“NATO Chiefs to Jump-Start the Aid Ukraine Really Needs.” - Foreign Policy

“NATO chief eyes bigger defense budgets, hard spending target.” - AP

“NATO says West must meet Ukraine’s demand for artillery.” - PBS

“Infographic: How much have NATO members spent on Ukraine?”  - Aljazeera

Thursday 16. February

Ära karda, Martin Helme, Ukraina toetamine on ka meie kaitsmine

Riina Solman, Postimees Arvamus

“Siin tahaks julgustada EKRE toetajaid ning Martin Helmet isiklikult, kes on relvade loovutamist Ukrainale kritiseerinud - kartuseks pole põhjust, enamik võimekusi on viimase aasta jooksul hoopis suurenenud, laskemoona ja moodsaid käsirelvi saabub pidevalt juurde, optsiooni kaudu tuleb juurde ka haubitsate asemele kavandatud Kõu liikursuurtükke, nii et mõlemad brigaadid saavad korraliku tuletoetuse.”

https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7714259/riina-solman-ara-karda-martin-helme-ukraina-toetamine-on-ka-meie-kaitsmine

“Kas Eesti relvalaod on Ukrainale abi andmisega kahuritest tühjaks saanud, nagu väidab Martin Helme.” - Postimees

“Martin Helme: see on ebaadekvaatne jutt, et sõda Ukrainas on ka meie sõda.” - Postimees

“Kaitseväe juhataja ironiseeris lahtise tekstiga Martin Helme väidete üle.” - Postimees

USA kaitseminister Lloyd Austin saabus Tallinnasse

(ERR | Postimees)

“Eestisse saabus neljapäeval visiidile Ameerika Ühendriikide kaitseminister Lloyd Austin, et kohtuda peaminister Kaja Kallase (RE) ja kaitseminister Hanno Pevkuriga (RE) ning arutada Ukraina toetamise, kahe riigi kaitsekoostöö ja NATO küsimusi.”

https://www.err.ee/1608887573/galerii-eestit-kulastab-usa-kaitseminister-lloyd-austin

—

https://www.postimees.ee/7714008/fotod-ja-video-usa-kaitseminister-lloyd-austin-saabus-tallinnasse

—

https://www.postimees.ee/7714258/fotod-kallas-kohtumisel-austiniga-usa-panus-eesti-ja-euroopa-julgeolekusse-on-vankumatu

How Russian invaders unleashed violence on Ukrainian’s small-town residents

By Anne Applebaum and Nataliya Gumenyuk

(The Atlantic)

“Their theory of occupation was not new. Soviet soldiers entering the territory of eastern Poland or the Baltic states during World War II also arrived with lists of the types of people they wanted to arrest. In May 1941, Stalin himself provided such a list for occupied Poland. To the Soviet dictator, anyone linked to the Polish state—police, army officers, leaders of political parties, civil servants, their families—was a “counter-revolutionary,” a “kulak,” a “bourgeois,” or, to put it more simply, an enemy to be eliminated.”

—

“Russia made similar lists before invading Ukraine a year ago, some of which have become known. Ukraine’s president, prime minister, and other leaders featured on them, as did well-known journalists and activists. But Russian soldiers were not prepared to encounter widespread resistance, and they certainly did not expect to find loyal, conscientious, popularly elected small-town and village mayors.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/russia-ukraine-war-potemkin-occupation-murder-torture/672841/

Opinion: European monuments to Russian World War II soldiers are offensive

By Maria Pedak-Kari

(Washington Post)

“Though Lee Hockstader might believe that Russian soldiers fought for lofty goals in World War II, as he wrote in his Feb. 9 op-ed, “Europe has a monuments problem of its own,” millions of people in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and other parts of Europe know otherwise. These soldiers pillaged, plundered, raped and forcefully occupied thousands upon thousands of homes, churches, schools and businesses. The monuments Joseph Stalin and his Soviet compatriots erected saluted Red Army soldiers who committed genocide. As a result, the people of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia lived in terror for 50 years.” 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/14/europe-monuments-world-war-ii-russia/

Wednesday 15. February

Türgist naasnud päästja: Eesti sai juurde 35 eksperti, kogemused ja teadmised

(ERR)

“Teisipäeva õhtul jõudis Eestisse tagasi 35-liikmeline päästemeeskond, kes läks nädal varem appi Türki, mida tabas selle piirkonna sajandi suurim maavärin. Eesti päästjad jagasid "Pealtnägijaga" oma videopäevikut ja rääkisid, miks appiminek pole mitte ainult inimlik, vaid ka kasulik.”

https://www.err.ee/1608886559/turgist-naasnud-paastja-eesti-sai-juurde-35-eksperti-kogemused-ja-teadmised

Taanlaste Leopard 2 tankid harjutasid Läänemaal meredessandi tõrjumist

(ERR)

“Sellel nädalal harjutavad Eesti kaitseväe jalaväe lahingumasinad CV-90 koos taanlastele kuuluvate Leopard 2 tankidega laskmist Läänemaal Peraküla rannal. Õppust külastas kolmapäeval ka president Alar Karis.”

https://www.err.ee/1608886691/taanlaste-leopard-2-tankid-harjutasid-laanemaal-meredessandi-torjumist

“Denmark's Leopard 2 tanks are training alongside the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) this week in Lääne County.” - ERR

Estonia’s Tallink announces no plans to restore ferry traffic to Stockholm soon

(BNN)

“Tallink is currently focused on reorganisation and restoration of operations on the main routes – connecting Estonia, Finland and Sweden.”

https://bnn-news.com/estonias-tallink-announces-no-plans-to-restore-ferry-traffic-to-stockholm-soon-243013

Norway And Estonia Agree: Russia Isn’t Going To End Its War On Ukraine

(Forbes)

“The intelligence agencies of Estonia and Norway in recent days both have released strategic reports. Both came to the same conclusions about the war in Ukraine. Yes, Russian forces have performed very badly in the first 11 months of the wider fighting. Yes, the Russians have suffered staggering casualties.”

—

“But no, that doesn’t mean the Kremlin is about to order a retreat. Every indication is that the Russian army will draft more men, recondition more old tanks ... and keep fighting. Indefinitely. There’s no one in Russia who can stop it.”

—

“The Russia-Ukraine war will continue in 2023, given that Russia has so far lacked sincere interest in peace talks, as these would not ensure the fulfillment of the Kremlin’s strategic objectives,” Estonian intelligence reported. “Russia believes that time is on its side in the war in Ukraine,” the Estonians added.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/13/norway-and-estonia-agree-russia-isnt-going-to-end-its-war-on-ukraine/?sh=7908bb851cfe

“If Putin succeeds in Ukraine, NATO borders will 'no longer be an obstacle', warns Former Russian oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky.” - France24

Russian political refugee Andrey Kuzichkin granted Estonian citizenship

(Postimees)

“Kuzichkin, who is also known as a columnist for Postimees, said that one of the reasons why he sought to be released from his Russian citizenship was his protest against Putin's regime. He said that he now plans to actively take part in political life in Estonia.”

—

“Kuzichkin noted that he had not set an objective to get Estonian citizenship. “I'd been hoping to live in Estonia for some five more years and that things would change for the better in Russia and I could return. However, the war changed both the plans of the entire world as well as mine. …”

https://news.postimees.ee/7713248/russian-political-refugee-andrey-kuzichkin-granted-estonian-citizenship

Estonia Deports Pro-Kremlin Activist Sergei Chaulin To Russia

(RFERL)

“Chaulin, who is stateless, resided for many years in Tallinn, where he led pro-Russian groups that support Moscow’s policies, including the annexation of Ukraine's Crimea and the Kremlin's support of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.”

https://www.rferl.org/a/estonia-deports-pro-kremlin-activist-russia/32273052.html

“Politsei võttis elamisloa Kremli-meelselt aktivistilt.” - ERR

Troops face frozen challenge on Exercise Winter Camp at Tapa

(British Army)

“Exercise WINTER CAMP has been necessarily demanding and complex. It is the cementing of the eFP Battlegroup’s cold weather credentials. It is what they have been building up to since their arrival in Estonia in September.” Said Colonel Dai Bevan, Operation Cabrit Commander.”

https://www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2023/02/exercise-winter-camp/

Can 'earthquake diplomacy' with Turkey help NATO membership chances for Sweden and Finland?

(Euronews)

“In the hours after two massive earthquakes hit southern Turkey, the well-oiled wheels of humanitarian assistance started turning in Sweden and Finland.  The Nordic nations are locked in something of a stalemate with Ankara over their NATO memberships -- as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan holds up the process, demanding that Stockholm and Helsinki meet strict criteria before moving forward with ratification. So could 'earthquake diplomacy' soften Turkey's stance towards the NATO applicants? It's worked before in the region.”

https://www.euronews.com/2023/02/15/can-earthquake-diplomacy-help-nato-membership-chances-for-sweden-and-finland

“Sweden And Finland Hit A Roadblock In Their NATO Bid.” - RFERL

“Germany urges swift approval of Finland, Sweden NATO bids.” - DW

Russia’s Systematic Program for the Re-education and Adoption of Ukraine's Children

(Humanitarian Research Lab | Yale School of Public Health)

“Russia’s federal government has systematically relocated at least 6,000 children from Ukraine to a network of re-education and adoption facilities in Russia-occupied Crimea and mainland Russia. The Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) identified 43 facilities involved in holding children from Ukraine since Russia’s 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The majority are recreational camps where children are taken for ostensible vacations, while others are facilities used to house children put up for foster care or adoption in Russia. These findings indicate the majority of camps have engaged in pro-Russia re-education efforts and some camps have provided military training to children or suspended the children’s return to their parents in Ukraine.”

https://hub.conflictobservatory.org/portal/apps/sites/#/home/pages/children-camps-1

Full report:

https://hub.conflictobservatory.org/portal/sharing/rest/content/items/97f919ccfe524d31a241b53ca44076b8/data

“Russia ‘captures 6,000 Ukrainian children for re-education’.” - Independent

“Russia deports thousands of Ukrainian children. Investigators say that's a war crime.” - NPR

“First Ukrainian Refugees From Estonia Arrive in Finland.” - Schengen Visa

Tuesday 14. February

Transition to teaching only in Estonian creates more places on training programs

(ERR)

“Ingar Dubolazov, head of the transition to Estonian-language teaching at the Ministry of Education and Research, told ERR that, starting from the next academic year, there will be an additional 400 places available for students on teacher training courses at Estonia's leading universities.”

https://news.err.ee/1608880691/transition-to-teaching-in-estonian-creates-more-places-on-training-programs

Putin’s War Fuels Estonia’s Breakup With the Russian Language

(Daily Beast | AlterNet)

“Estonian officials have been pushing for the language shift ever since their country gained independence from the Soviet Union. The war in Ukraine, however, has accelerated this process, Narva mayor Katri Raik told The Daily Beast.”

—

“At the beginning of the war, a situation developed where Estonians and Russian-speaking residents had quite different understandings of the situation in the world,” the mayor said, explaining that the war had exposed how the country had failed to establish schools that “unified Russian and Estonian students. …”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-vladimir-putins-war-in-ukraine-fueled-estonias-breakup-with-the-russian-language

—

https://www.alternet.org/estonia-solidarity-ukraine-russian-education/

Estonian foreign intelligence: No illusions that post-Putin Russia would embrace democracy

By Sten Hankewitz

(Estonian World)

“Internally, Russia has become Soviet Union 2.0, drawing inspiration from Stalinist repression, Khrushchevian sloganeering and Brezhnevian stagnation. Paradoxically, in Russia today, Putin’s regime is simultaneously the strongest and the weakest it has ever been. But there seems to be no new Gorbachev, not to mention Yeltsin, on the horizon.”

https://estonianworld.com/security/estonian-foreign-intelligence-no-illusions-that-post-putin-russia-would-embrace-democracy/

“United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately.” - Reuters

“US warns its citizens in Russia to get out immediately over security fears.” - Euronews

“Norway And Estonia Agree: Russia Isn’t Going To End Its War On Ukraine.” - Forbes

“Nato chief says ‘no signs’ Putin wants peace as he issues ammunition call.” - The Guardian

The US Secret Service opens a regional cyber training programme in Tallinn

(Estonian World | Baltic Times)

“The organisation aims to educate, train and help equip the Baltic region law enforcement partners to investigate new technologies being utilised by criminals, process digital evidence and respond to network intrusions.”

https://estonianworld.com/security/the-us-secret-service-opens-a-regional-cyber-training-programme-in-tallinn/

—

https://www.baltictimes.com/us_secret_service_opens_cyber_training_program_for_baltic_law_enforcement_officers/

North Tallinn is now the most expensive city district in Estonia

(Estonian World / BNS)

“… the average price per square metre of apartments in North Tallinn crossed the €4,000 mark and the district became the most expensive district of the capital for the first time, with a significant lead over the city centre, the previous number one.”

https://estonianworld.com/business/realtor-north-tallinn-is-now-the-most-expensive-city-district-in-estonia/

Estonia Establishes Diplomatic Presence in Cincinnati, Ohio

(Schengen Visa Info)

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Estonia has announced that on February 8, the country’s ambassador to the United States Kristjan Prikk and Consul General in New York Arvo Anton opened the Honorary Consulate of Estonia in Cincinnati, Ohio.”

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/estonia-establishes-diplomatic-presence-in-cincinnati-usa-with-new-honorary-consulate/

Spain to deploy NASAMS missile battery in Estonia as part of NATO contribution

(Euro Weekly News)

“… in the northwest of the country in a new contribution to allied security on the eastern flank. Once this new Spanish contribution to NATO forces is completed, it means that Spain will have two missile defence batteries of this type in the Baltic area. A similar one was deployed last summer at an air base in Latvia as part of the Alliance’s Enhanced Forward Presence.”

https://euroweeklynews.com/2023/02/14/spain-to-deploy-nasams-missile-battery-in-estonia-in-april-as-part-of-nato-contribution/

“Hispaania saadab aprillis Eestisse õhukaitsesüsteemi NASAMS.” - Eesti Kaitseministeerium

Interview: Journalist Julia Ioffe

(PBS Frontline)

[Video and Transcript, Sept. 28, 2022]

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/interview/julia-ioffe-4/

Russia's disinformation campaign targets NATO

(Deutsche Welle, 13. Feb)

“One narrative, begun even before the war, has been particularly persistent: That the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) — the 30-member European and North American military alliance established after World War II — is not only threatening Russia, but may even wish to invade it.”

—

“In many Russian narratives, cause and effect are inverted, said Lutz Güllner, head of strategic communications at the EU's diplomatic service, the European External Action Service. "It's always about portraying how much Russia is actually threatened, is under siege, is threatened by Ukraine, and therefore must defend itself, making the war nothing more than deterrence.”

—

“Germany's recent decision to supply tanks to Ukraine was also immediately interpreted on social media as an admission by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that NATO is at war with Russia. … So for Russia, it might serve as an example. [They say] 'look, Europe is already prepared to fight us’.”

https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-russias-disinformation-campaign-targets-nato/a-64675398

Europeans should not get too used to Joe Biden, the last of the Atlanticists

(The New Statesman)

“Europe has implicitly interpreted the leadership provided by Biden’s administration as the new normal; proof that vigorous attempts to build European structures capable of taking over responsibility for the continent’s security from the US are now unnecessary. … It is a comfortable delusion to nurture: Atlanticist Bidenism forever! Comfortable, that is, until it eventually collides with reality.”

https://www.newstatesman.com/international-content/2023/02/europeans-joe-biden-atlanticists

- Putin’s War -

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment - 16. February

(ISW)

“Russian forces conducted another missile strike on infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on February 16.”

—

“Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Russian Federation Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova on February 16, confirming that the Kremlin is directly involved in facilitating the deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.”

—

“Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces aim to capture Bakhmut by the first anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, which would require a significantly higher rate of Russian advance than anything seen for many months.”

—

“ A senior NATO official reported that 80 percent of Russia’s airpower remains intact and that Russian forces have been attempting to disable Ukrainian air defenses in preparation for a large strike campaign.”

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-16-2023

What Putin Got Right

(Foreign Policy)

“The Russian president got many things wrong about invading Ukraine—but not everything. … (First), the Biden administration hoped that the threat of “unprecedented sanctions” would deter Putin from invading and then hoped that imposing these sanctions would strangle his war machine, trigger popular discontent, and force him to reverse course. Putin went to war convinced that Russia could ride out any sanctions we might impose, and he’s been proven right up till now.”

—

“Second, Putin correctly judged that the Russian people would tolerate high costs and that military setbacks were not going to lead to his ouster.”

—

“Third, Putin understood that other states would follow their own interests and that he would not be universally condemned for his actions. Europe, the United States, and some others have reacted sharply and strongly, but key members of the global south and some other prominent countries (such as Saudi Arabia and Israel) have not.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/15/putin-right-ukraine-war/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921

Edward Lucas: ‘Putin's choice is between the dacha and the graveyard’

(ERR)

“… That's where he is going to go. This war is a disaster," Lucas said. He suggested that while Putin is looking at Khrushchev's exile if he's lucky and something more bloodthirsty otherwise, the West seems to lack a strategy for a destabilizing Russia, with Russia's civil war already underway, which is reflected in military companies increasing in both size and number.”

https://news.err.ee/1608883601/edward-lucas-putin-s-choice-is-between-the-dacha-and-the-graveyard

Putin is staring at defeat in his gas war with Europe

(Politico)

“Mild weather this winter is set to help Europe shrug off Russia’s energy threats next year, too.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-energy-gas-supply-russia-putin-winter/

Why Did Modern Russia Turn Into An Authoritarian State: Was It Putin Or The People?

(Worldcrunch)

“Interestingly, for some time after the final collapse of the USSR, it was Russia that led the decommunization movement, with the banning of the Communist party, renaming of cities and opening of secret archives. The Kremlin has officially recognized the existence of secret protocols to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (the non-aggression agreement between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany signed just before the Second World War) and the Soviet Union's guilt in the murder of tens of thousands of Polish prisoners of war during the Katyn massacre.”

—

“It is strange to see today's Russia — rigidly authoritarian, hostile to the whole world, with rapid degradation of almost all spheres of life. And on top of that, Orthodox-Communist-Nazi rhetoric comes from the mouths of the highest leadership. …”

https://worldcrunch.com/world-affairs/modern-russia-authoritarianism

“Putin’s Russia Now More Repressive than Brezhnev’s Soviet Union Was.” - By Paul Goble

Russia Has Deployed 97% of Army in Ukraine but Is Struggling to Advance

(Wall Street Journal)

“Fighting has been particularly fierce in the eastern city of Bakhmut, where Ukrainian forces are resisting Russian moves to encircle the city. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said grueling battles in the east were depleting Russia’s capacity to mount a broader offensive. In his nightly address, Mr. Zelensky said the situation in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk remains extremely difficult.”

—

“We must understand the significance of these battles,” Mr. Zelensky said. “That is where the unprecedented destruction of Russian potential is taking place now.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-has-deployed-97-of-army-in-ukraine-but-is-struggling-to-advance-u-k-says-91086284

“Russian army has lost up to half of key battle tanks.” - The Guardian

Russian Flash Drive Identifies Key Figures In Occupation Of Ukraine

(RFERL)

“… involved in handling civilians who allegedly hold anti-Russian views in occupied areas. Many of those civilians say they have been tortured.”

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russian-flash-drive-documents-war/32269860.html

Kremlin-Linked Leader Of Wagner Mercenary Group Acknowledges Ownership Of 'Troll Factory’

(RFERL)

“The leader and co-founder of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is known to have close ties to President Vladimir Putin, has acknowledged for the first time that he owns the Internet Research Agency -- a so-called "troll factory" in St. Petersburg specialized in creating fake social-media accounts and spreading disinformation and propaganda.”

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-progozhin-troll-factory/32271276.html

Putin prefers to travel around Russia by armored train, instead of flying

(Meduza | RFERL)

“Russia’s president has been actively using his armored train since around August–September 2021, a source personally acquainted with Putin told Dossier Center. According to this insider, the custom train was last updated in 2014–2015, but Putin only began using it regularly just before Russian troops began concentrating near the Ukrainian border.”

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/02/13/that-extra-heavy-load

—

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-putin-special-train-travel-secret-ukraine-war/32270737.html

Moscow's decades-old gas ties with Europe lie in ruins

(Reuters)

“Meticulously crafted over decades as a major revenue stream for the Kremlin, Moscow's gas trade with Europe is unlikely to recover from the ravages of military conflict.”

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/moscows-decades-old-gas-ties-with-europe-lie-ruins-2023-02-14/

Putin’s Nightmare: Russia Is ‘Bleeding’ Troops In Ukraine

(19FortyFive)

“In its daily operational update on the war, the British Military Intelligence assessed that February so far has been the deadliest month for the Russian military since the first week of the invasion.”

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/02/putins-nightmare-russia-is-bleeding-troops-in-ukraine/

—

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/02/putin-is-angry-the-might-russian-military-is-dying-in-ukraine/

“Russians abandon wartime Russia in historic exodus.” - Stars & Stripes

“Secretive Network Rescues Russia’s Antiwar Dissidents." - New York Times

“Migrants in Russia forced to fight in Putin's war.” - BBC

“Russia’s plans to seize eastern Ukraine could take two years.” - Guardian

“Stop Saying “War in Ukraine”—It Is Russia’s War Against Ukraine and Democracy.” - Small Wars Journal

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