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✔ Estonia 'encouraged' by Trump administration's recent tone on NATO
(Reuters)
"(Estonian Foreign Minister Sven) Mikser said recent remarks by Trump and his transition team had helped assuage concerns raised when the Republican candidate said he would consider a country's contributions to the NATO alliance before coming to its defense.”
- Kaliningrad and the Escalatory Spiral in the Baltics
(Carnegie Europe)
"An arms race is on the way in the Baltics, one that is centered on Kaliningrad. … any talk about demilitarizing Kaliningrad is a pipe dream."
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- Kaliningrad: Maps show how Russia has Europe spooked
(The Washington Post)
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- Kaliningrad: Struggle for Survival
(Europeans 101 - blog)
- US senators express unwavering support for Baltic security and independence
(The Baltic Times)
"Baltic lawmakers met with nine US senators from the two largest parties, including Republican Senator John McCain."
--
- McCain kavandab visiiti Eestisse
(ERR)
- They play hockey in Estonia?
RoughRiders winger Robert Arrak proves they do
(The Gazette - Iowa)
“It wasn’t that hard to convince him to come here,” (Coach/General Manager Mark) Carlson said. … Carlson was asked if it was realistic to think Arrak could someday be his country’s second NHL player. Leo Komarov of the Toronto Maple Leafs is the only Estonian-born player [Narva] to make it to the NHL thus far. “That’s a long ways away,” he said. “But I think he’s got a realistic shot to get drafted. It’s up to him as to how hard he wants to work.”
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Wednesday
7. December
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- Estonia’s Innovation Culture: How Did it Happen?
(FPRI)
"First, Estonia was unusually quick to “open” to the world after the fall of the Soviet Union. Not long after the fall, it welcomed Western intellectuals, business leaders, and policy experts."
—
"Second, Estonia is blessed with a successful neighbor—Finland. It shares a linguistic tradition with Estonia, and the country has inspired Estonians since the Soviet days when Estonians would angle satellites (actually the technology back then was simple TV antennas - Aavo) to pick up Western news coming from Helsinki. The influence of Finland cannot be underestimated in the Estonian innovation story …"
—
"Third, Estonia had a relatively smooth and peaceful democratic transition, something not true of many other post-Soviet states …"
—
"Fourth, Estonia’s youthful political environment allowed politicians and bureaucrats to take chances with new ideas. In short, a new country such as Estonia does not have to deal with the kinds of entrenched interests and ideologies that exist in older and more mature countries …"
- NATO Chief Urges Continued Pressure On Russia Over Ukraine
(RFERL)
- Europe's Nato allies look to Trump as Russia 'tests resolve’
(BBC)
"Estonia's Foreign Minister Sven Mikser says Russia is "testing" his country's defenses. … not only Estonia's defenses, but actually the alliance's resolve and unity. That's what we need to keep and maintain. And not only that - we also need to demonstrate it, in order to give the right message. It's not only important that we know that the allies are ready to defend us - it's important that Putin knows that.""
- Corker, possible Trump secretary of state, aims to expand NATO
(Washington Post)
“ (US) Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) presided over a unanimous vote Tuesday ratifying a treaty to accept Montenegro as the latest member of NATO. Backers want the Senate to take up the measure later this week, when two-thirds of senators would need to approve it in order for Montenegro to be on its way to becoming the 29th member of the alliance.”
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Tuesday
6. December
_________________
- Stanford University: Ilves named visiting fellow
(Press Release)
"Ilves, whose title will be the Bernard and Susan Liautaud Visiting Fellow, is set to work at the Center for International Security and Cooperation in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. … Ilves’ tentative start date at CISAC is Jan. 9, and his appointment will run through June 30. Afterwards, the Hoover Institution will extend his appointment for another full year."
--
- Endine riigipea asub tööle Stanfordi ülikoolis
(Postimees)
- The Scandinavian equilibrium: between Russia and NATO
(Intersection)
"Whether NATO members would be willing to welcome new member states into the Alliance is an entirely different question. The North Atlantic Treaties on the Accession of Finland and Sweden have to be approved by parliaments of all NATO member states. Former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves has explained that they might not be inclined to do so in the face of a military crisis. When the Baltic states joined NATO in 2004, the situation was somewhat different as Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs Marina Kaljurand informed the author of this article: “We would have never joined the Alliance were it not for the support of the US and other allies. A narrow window of opportunity opened up and we managed to seize our chance”.
--
"Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb fears that Putin and new US President Donald Trump will strike a deal which will prevent NATO from accepting new members."
5. December
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- Vana-Tallinn valiti Soome juubelinapsiks ja Alko juhid on pahased
(ERR)
- Latvia faces hybrid threat as EU, NATO boost defenses
(Deutsche Welle)
- Moscow Won’t Accept Finlandization of Ukraine
(Window on Eurasia)
"Sergey Markov, who is close to the Kremlin and Russia’s intelligence services, says that the US under Trump “is ready to leave Ukraine but on conditions that are unacceptable for Russia.”
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- Russia -
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- Russia and the Threat to Liberal Democracy
(The Atlantic)
"Western intelligence agencies have been monitoring a Russian campaign on a Cold War scale to support a wide range of European parties and actors—illiberal parties and politicians of both the far left and far right—that are sympathetic to Russia and Putin. This includes not just newer neo-fascist parties, but anti-immigrant far-right parties like the National Front of France—which obtained a 9 million euro loan from a Russian bank in 2014—and the Freedom Party of Austria, both of which have been gaining popularity for some time.”
—
"Meanwhile, the damage to liberalism in Europe was also being driven by a more brutal form of Russian intervention—in Syria. Russia’s bombing campaign there has not only tilted the war in favor of the dictator, Bashar al-Assad, who along with his allies has killed more civilians than either ISIS fighters or rebels, but it also dramatically accelerated the flow of Syrian refugees (now nearing 5 million) into other countries, including European ones."
- Russia Updates Plan to Counter Cyberattacks and Foreign Influence
(New York Times | RFERL | The Guardian | others)
"The Kremlin published a new plan on Tuesday to defend Russia against what it described as stepped-up cyberattacks and “information-psychological” methods by foreign intelligence agencies bent on influencing its population with online information. The 16-page document sketches out what the Kremlin sees as the main threats to its security and national interest from foreign information making its way into the country, and sets priorities for countering them.”
—
- Presidential Decree number 646 of 12.5.2016
[Указ Президента Российской Федерации от 05.12.2016 № 646]
(PDF in Russian)
--
"Russia has been hacking the West with impunity for years. And the new cybersecurity doctrine is an indication that Putin understands that the West has woken up to this - and it is about to be payback time. The Kremlin is bracing itself to get a taste of its own medicine.”
--
"Russian banks are being warned by the FSB to prepare for possible cyberattacks."
--
"Weakness Not Strength behind Putin’s Plans for Broader Information War Abroad and at Home"
--
"Russia is behind in the development of information technology, Putin said."
—
"Russia Expects a Taste of Its Own Cyber Medicine”
- Baker’s Dozen of Neglected Russian Stories
(Paul Goble)
- Nuclear War No Longer "Unthinkable" for Russia, just “Unlikely"
(National Interest)
"The newly-released "Foreign Policy Concept" of the Russian Federation contains some interesting changes and updates. Given that this document reflects the Kremlin's strategic mindset and how it views international relations, it is important to take what is says seriously."
- Putin’s gulag
(Politico-Europe)
"Torture and solitary confinement are regular features of Russia’s prison system, and it’s set to get worse."
- Russian propaganda is state-of-the-art again
(The Economist)
"As in the 1930s, Moscow is a beacon for an international movement. … Today, 25 years after the Soviet collapse, Russia is again seen as an emblem—this time of a nationalist imperial order. And just as in the 1930s, its isolationism does not prevent it from being involved in the global populist, anti-establishment trend. The Kremlin’s bet on marginal right-wing parties has paid off as they have moved into the mainstream. It has pumped out disinformation and propaganda both through its official media channels, such as the RT and Sputnik news networks, and through thousands of paid internet trolls. Its cyber-attacks against Western countries produced troves of emails and documents which it dumped into the hands of foreign media, disrupting America’s presidential elections to the benefit of Mr Trump."
--
"Barack Obama is facing growing pressure from congressional Democrats in both houses demanding further disclosures regarding Russia’s role in the 2016 US elections.”
—
- ‘Kompromat': Foes of Russia Say Child Pornography Is Planted to Ruin Them
(New York Times)
"Old-style kompromat featured doctored photographs, planted drugs, grainy videos of liaisons with prostitutes hired by the K.G.B., and a wide range of other primitive entrapment techniques. Today, however, kompromat has become allied with the more sophisticated tricks of cybermischief-making, where Russia has proved its prowess in the Baltic States, Georgia, Ukraine and, according to American intelligence officials, in the computers of the Democratic National Committee."
—
- Trump, Russia and the U.S. Election
(FactCheck)
—
- How to Spot Fake News
(FactCheck - 18. November)
- Book Reviews: Russia, NATO, Trump - The Shadow World
(New York Review of Books)
[Robert Cottrell, former Moscow bureau chief for both The Economist and the Financial Times, reviews 5 timely books.]
- Mihhail Hodorkovski - Venemaa erinevate ajastute peegelpilt
(Delfi)
"Kolm päeva Tallinnat väisav Mihhail Hodorkovski on aastakümneid peegeldanud Venemaa olustikku ja tegelikkust."
--
- Irish Court Releases Khodorkovsky Assets Worth $100 Million
(RFERL)
"Once Russia's richest man as the chief of its biggest oil producer, Yukos, Khodorkovsky spent 10 years in prison for the convictions he and supporters say were orchestrated by the Kremlin to punish him for challenging President Vladimir Putin and to shift prime Yukos assets into state hands."
- Russia’s Insistence on Being Legal Successor of USSR has Blocked Progress to Democracy
(Paul Goble)
"As the anniversary of the dissolution of the Soviet Union approaches, many people are speculating on why the Baltic countries and Eastern Europe on the one hand have made significant strides toward becoming part of the West with its democratic norms when Russia has not.”
—
“Hardly anyone will deny that the Baltic and East European coungtries have been able to overcome the communist past, complete the democratic transit and become part of the Western world if at its margins, but that the Russian Federation has not been able to achieve these things ..."
- Interview: David Remnick, editor of The New Yorker
(Spiegel)
SPIEGEL: "He (Trump) combines antidemocratic policies with unconventional proposals. Reaching out to Putin might open new opportunities in foreign policy…"
REMNICK: "... and maybe Santa Claus is real. Here's the problem: reality. I would love to have a stable, productive relationship with Russia. I would also like to see Russia not interfere in our elections. I would like to see Russia not invade Ukraine or put pressure on and threaten Baltic states. But we live in the real and existing world. And now, despite the long election campaign, Donald Trump is going to have to live in the real world in which Vladimir Putin is exactly who he presents himself to be, and Putin is extremely skilled. He's not going to make it very easy for the United States or Germany. And he's going to test Trump."
SPIEGEL: "Who knows how they will handle each other. Maybe Putin will find his match in Donald Trump."
REMNICK: "I don't know that Donald Trump is anything more to Putin than what Lenin called a poleznye durak - a useful idiot."
- Putin Wants Talks with Trump Not an Agreement with Him
(Window on Eurasia)
“Putin needs 'only to create the impression' that he wants to talk. A dialogue may begin and there may be six months of 'a honeymoon'. But then Trump will understand that he is being ‘played with’ or denigrated. At that point will begin a much harsher conversation than the one with Barack Obama.”
--
“If Angela Merkel says that Putin constantly deceives her and thus she wants to reduce to the maximum possible minimum of meetings with him, then Trump will react in a corresponding way. Over the course of his business career, Trump was able to tell when he was being ‘played’ and quickly stopped having anything to do with them."
- Trump’s foreign policy: The main risk is incoherence and accidents, not a foreign policy revolution
(Politico-Europe - 4. Dec.)
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