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08 November, 2019


“Oligarchs and Populists Milk the E.U. for Millions.”


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Friday 8. Nov.
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Von der Leyen sĂŒĂŒdistas Venemaad Euroopas jĂ”uga piiride muutmises
(Postimees)
“Euroopa Komisjoni tulevane president Ursula von der Leyen kordas USA vĂ€lisministri Mark Pompeo kriitikat Moskva ja Pekingi aadressil, sĂŒĂŒdistades Venemaad Euroopas jĂ”uga piiride muutmises.”



How the Baltic States Are Integrating Citizenry Into Their National Security Strategies
(Small Wars Journal)
“Due to their shared borders with Russia, the Baltic states are the NATO members most exposed to Russia’s threats. As small countries with little strategic depth and limited human and economic resources, they are increasingly adopting a “total defense” approach to national security, which includes enabling civilians to be able to protect themselves and to also support their nation’s professional armed forces in case of a conflict. U.S. and NATO forces therefore also need to plan for effective engagement with local civilians as they prepare their forces for deployment to the Baltic states in times of crisis.”





Swedbank lowers Estonia's 2019 economic growth forecast to 3.2%
(ERR | Emerging Europe)
“In 2020, Estonia's economic growth is forecast to decelerate to 2.1 %. The bank left its growth estimate for 2021 unchanged at 2.5 %.”
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Interview: Robert Kagan
(Spiegel)
“Prominent U.S. conservative Robert Kagan warns that it is time for Europe to "grow up." In an interview, he talks about Trump's stance on foreign policy, the crumbling liberal democratic consensus and the precarious future of Germany and the EU.”
—
“Whether the United States formally pulls out of NATO or not, does anyone think we're as committed to NATO today as we were four years ago? The Poles are very funny to me because they believe that NATO could go away, but the U.S. commitment to Poland will survive. They think they can count on Donald Trump.”





Opinion: It’s not just Britain that’s breaking up, Europe is too
(The Guardian - Uk)
“On 3. December, Nato leaders, including Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, will gather at a Buckingham Palace reception. The next day, the Nato chiefs will meet in a luxury – but thankfully non-Trump-owned – hotel outside Watford. It’s the event where the leaders will discuss big subjects including Syria, Afghanistan, Russia and military burden-sharing – and where none of these big subjects is likely to be solved.”
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“Yet the 2019 Nato summit is also a timely signal of something much larger in modern history. This difficult summit will be a microcosm of a wider crisis that stretches across the post-1945 international institutions. 
 The Nato summit, in other words, is not an opportunity to reassure the voters that all is well and in good hands.”
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“It is not just Nato. The United Nations is weaker. So is the Bretton Woods financial settlement. There may never have been an internationalist golden age, but international bodies are struggling as never before in the modern era to exert power and influence in the face of the Trump administration, China and the boldness of repressive states including Russia and Turkey.”





How Russian historical propaganda justifies occupation of entire south-eastern Ukraine
(Euromaidan Press)
“Russian historical propaganda is not only misinformation and fake news. It is much more complicated. It uses a mixture of facts and fiction, knowledge and manipulation. In its new form, it is an attempt to validate Russia’s narrative and devalue the opponent’s narrative through simplistic and unambiguous theses, often backed up by strong emotions 
”



Eesti Karude Taastumine Sajanditagusest Madalseisust Kestab Endiselt
(Zooloogid 2.0 blogi)
“Kuigi tĂ€nasel pĂ€eval hinnatakse karuasurkonna suuruseks Eestis 700–800 isendit, ei ole karude elu siinsetel aladel alati olnud „meelakkumine“. Nimelt 19. sajandi keskpaigast pĂ€rinevad karude levikut kirjeldavad kaardid nĂ€itavad, et alates sellest ajast taandus karude levik Eestis jĂ€rk-jĂ€rgult, olles vĂ€ikseim 20. sajandi 20-ndatel. Sel ajal hinnati karude arvukuseks ĂŒksnes mĂ”nikĂŒmmend looma, kel Ă”nnestus kĂŒttide eest varju leida arvatavasti nii Alutaguse metsades kui ka Vahe-Eesti metsavööndi lĂ”unapoolses osas. PĂ€rast kaitsemeetmete rakendamist 1930-ndate keskel, hakkas karude arvukus vaikselt tĂ”usma ning 1990-ndate aastate alguses ĂŒletas siinne populatsioon lausa 800 isendi piiri.”



Toxin levels in Baltic herring drop significantly
(Yle)
“Herring is one of the most common species of fish in the Baltic Sea, but sales of it for human food are restricted by the EU. Lower concentrations of dioxins and PCB compounds could remove restrictions on selling and exporting this abundant fish species. 
 Figures released by the National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) on Thursday show that concentrations of these environmental toxins have dropped by as much as 80 percent over the last 40 years.”



Grey Seal population on the rise in Baltic Sea - more than 38,000
(Yle)
“The Baltic Sea's grey seal population has grown by an average of about five percent annually since the early 2000s.”



Opinion: A Russian View on the Fall of the Berlin Wall, 30 Years On
(The Moscow Times)
“
 Russians’ attitudes to the fall of the Berlin Wall are largely positive — at least among those who still understand what it was. 
”



Why Moscow’s Demands Seem Unreasonable to Belarus
(Carnegie Moscow)
“Russia’s suggestion that Belarus resurrect a 1999 agreement to get compensation for Russia’s oil tax maneuver looks fairly cynical to Minsk.”









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Thursday 7. Nov.
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Emmanuel Macron warns Europe: NATO is becoming brain-dead
(The Economist)
“... the French president argues that it is high time for Europe to “wake up”. He was asked whether he believed in the effectiveness of Article Five, the idea that if one NATO member is attacked all would come to its aid, which many analysts think underpins the alliance's deterrent effect. “I don't know,” he replies, “but what will Article Five mean tomorrow?”







Kaitseminister JĂŒri Luik: NATO ei ole kindlasti ajusurmas
(ERR)
"Ma arvan, et Macroni sĂ”navĂ”tt oli eelkĂ”ige soov dramatiseerida seda keerulist olukorda, kasutada mingeid hĂŒperboole. NATO ei ole kindlasti ajusurmas ja minu arvates on vĂ€ga oluline arvestada, et NATO kui institutsioon toimib, tal on oma ĂŒlesanded ja nende ĂŒlesannete raamides tegutsevad, et kĂ”ik liikmesriigid, kaasa arvatud Prantsuse Vabariik, kes on oma vĂ€gedega siin kaitsmas Eesti ja kogu NATO idatiiva sĂ”ltumatust ja suverÀÀnsust.”






















Oudekki Loone sai NATO Parlamentaarse Assamblee Eesti delegatsiooni juhiks
(ERR)
“Riigikogu muutis neljapĂ€eval NATO Parlamentaarse Assamblee Eesti delegatsiooni koosseisu, kust arvati vĂ€lja delegatsiooni senine juht Kadri Simson ning tema asemele nimetati Kerstin-Oudekki Loone.”



Opinion: How Russia Could Force a Nuclear War in the Baltics
(Bloomberg)
“The Kremlin's "escalate to de-escalate" nuclear strategy could easily get out of hand. Would the U.S. fight a nuclear war to save Estonia? The question would probably strike most Americans as absurd. Certainly, almost no one was thinking about such a prospect when NATO expanded to include the Baltic states back in 2004.”
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“Yet a series of reports by the nonpartisan RAND Corporation shows that the possibility of nuclear escalation in a conflict between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia over the Baltic region is higher than one might imagine. The best way of averting it? Invest more in the alliance’s conventional defense.”



Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic States
(Rand - 24. Oct. 2019)
“The United States is currently considering tailored deterrence strategies, including options to use nuclear weapons to deter Russian aggression in the Baltic states. This report examines what role nonstrategic nuclear weapons could play in deterring such an invasion.”



Kaljulaid says she is disappointed that Estonia's educational system is not fully in the Estonian language
(ERR)
"It is normal for small countries to worry about the development of their language. Do people learn that language even if they live here? If you look at it from a human rights point of view, we as an advanced European country must offer all people living here equal opportunities for integration into our society 
 That is why we have a duty to ensure that every child who starts their education in Estonia has the opportunity to study in Estonian. If we can respect the rights of people who have legally settled in Estonia, it will also reduce our concerns about what happens to the Estonian language and culture. We know that," the president continued.



If Finno-Ugric Languages Die Out, So Too will Their Cultures and Identities, Activists and Scholars Say
by Paul Goble
“
 concerning the numerically small Finno-Ugric peoples of Leningrad oblast, including the 5,000 Vepsy, the 250 Izhors, and the 64 Vods.”



Claim: Political climate in Estonia reminiscent of 1920s Germany
(ERR)
“Gender and equal treatment commissioner Liisa-Ly Pakosta says that the current political climate in Estonia is more reminiscent of Germany in the 1920s, given the incitement from some quarters against minority groups and also the media. 
 "I see a number of danger signs reminiscent of the 1920s and '30s in Europe, especially Germany. Historically, Estonia's normal value space is still respectful of people and we respect everyone in this cold climate 
”



A stronger Europe to face down Trump? Don’t count on it
(Politico-Europe)
“The U.S. president has insulted allied leaders at every turn even as he’s fawned over authoritarians from Moscow to Pyongyang. His understanding of NATO appears to be rudimentary at best. 
 In most European capitals, Trump is so unpopular that a policy will instantly become less attractive if he backs it.”



The EU transition that wasn’t
(Politico-Europe)
“Just when the European Union was supposed to forge ahead as a more united bloc, its three big institutions are weakened and at war with each other. 
 Britain’s looming departure is changing the balance of power within the Council, which will need to find its new footing.”



New British unit begins rotation in NATO Battlegroup Estonia
(ERR)
“The incoming unit, which is to serve alongside French troops, will replace a unit of the King's Royal Hussars that had been serving in Estonia since March 
”







Thousands of rare 'ice eggs' found on beach in Finland
(The Guardian)
“Autumn is the perfect time to see the phenomenon 
”




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Wednesday 6. Nov.
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Sweden climate specialist: Climate won't go back to normal in our time
(EU Observer)
“For all decisions that you and I make in our lives, for all the decisions that parliamentarians make for their countries, climate change is irreversible. What we can hope for is to stabilize the climate at the new level and adapt to it.”  -  Professor Michael Tjernström, Stockholm University



















11,258 scientists in 153 countries declare a ‘climate emergency’
(Washington Post)
“The study, called “World scientists’ warning of a climate emergency,” marks the first time a large group of scientists has formally come out in favor of labeling climate change an “emergency,” which the study notes is caused by many human trends that are together increasing greenhouse gas emissions. 
 To date, scientists have been reluctant to use such language. However, this study may change that.”
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On Norway's border with Russia, unease over military buildup
(Reuters | NPR)
“Which country is to the northeast?" Staff Sergeant Daniel Croak bellows at a group of 20 soldiers in camouflaged combat jackets and white trousers in a pine forest near the town of Setermoen. ‘Russia!’ they shout back.”
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“The troops are part of a contingent of 650 Marines staging a recent joint military exercise with 3,000 soldiers from NATO-member Norway at a time when both NATO and Russia have increased their military presence in the Arctic.”
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The History of Pirita Convent
(Ancient Origins)
“Construction on the site began in 1417 
”





Cutting Off Russian Internet from World Wide Web ‘Not a Myth or the Ravings of Paranoids’
(Window on Eurasia)
“Such a technical possibility of course exists,” (Leonid) Delitsyn says. “The internet was invented not in our country and the root servers which keep information are located primarily in the United States.” More than that, it was invented the first place to “guarantee communication between American partisan detachments” should the Soviet Union attack.”



How Russian Hackers Conquered the World
(Mother Jones)
“Before the 2016 US presidential election, most Americans had very little sense of Russia’s hacking capabilities and the extent to which its operatives were causing havoc. But the country’s hackers had been quite active and well known in some communities well before, staging a series of increasingly brazen and destructive attacks against regional rivals, including Estonia, Georgia, and Ukraine.  Even after 2016, most Americans are probably not aware of the extent to which such Russian operations remain a threat.”





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Tuesday 5. Nov.
__________


Estonia president to visit Kuwait
(Kuwait News Agency)
“The visit should usher in a "watershed phase" in Kuwait's ties with Tallinn, the Gulf state's Ambassador to Germany and non-resident Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Estonia Najeeb Al-Bader told KUNA on Sunday. With her three-day visit, where she is due to hold "extensive talks" with Kuwait's political leaders, the Estonian president has taken up His Highness the Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah on his offer, added the diplomat.”



Oligarchs and Populists Milk the E.U. for Millions
(New York Times)
“The European Union spends $65 billion a year subsidizing agriculture. But a chunk of that money emboldens strongmen, enriches politicians and finances corrupt dealing.”
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“Europe’s farm program, a system that was instrumental in forming the European Union, is now being exploited by the same antidemocratic forces that threaten the bloc from within. This is because governments in Central and Eastern Europe, several led by populists, have wide latitude in how the subsidies, funded by taxpayers across Europe, are distributed — even as the entire system is shrouded in secrecy.”







Zelensky to meet with Estonian president in late November
(UNIAN)
“
 there were many areas in which Estonia and Ukraine could improve bilateral cooperation.”







Who’s afraid of the American tanks in Lithuania?
(Warsaw Institute)
“The arrival of the American tank battalion to Lithuania has caused turmoil in the capital city of neighbouring Belarus. However, initial aggressive declarations of Alexander Lukashenko were quickly toned down and the explanations of the chief of the American diplomatic outpost in Minsk eventually dispelled all concerns.”



Sweden bomb attacks reach unprecedented level as gangs feud
(The Guardian)
“Sweden’s national bomb squad has been called out to 30 blasts in the past two months and 100 so far this year, more than twice the number in the same period in 2018, as concern grows about rising levels of violence by criminal gangs.”



Cold War-era bomb shelter discovered under demolished edifice in Vilnius
(LRT)
“The Palace of Trade Unions was constructed in 1956 after a typical Soviet project designed in the style of socialist historicism, also known as the Stalinist imperial style. The building is a prime example of Soviet transitional architecture that followed the 1955 resolution condemning excesses of Stalinist building.”



Latvian State Enters Autocephaly Fight Against Moscow Church
by Paul Goble
“At the very least, that sets the stage for the situation in Latvia to become like the one in Estonia where there are two Orthodox churches, one subordinate to Moscow and one not 
”



Around 600,000 EU nationals in the UK might not apply for settled status, with disastrous consequences
(Huffington Post - Uk)
“The mask slipped a few weeks ago when Home Office Minister Brandon Lewis told German newspaper Die Welt that EU nationals who have not successfully applied for the new immigration status by a deadline will be subject to “the existing immigration rules.” What this means in plain English is this: the estimated hundreds and thousands of people affected will not be able to work, rent or access free healthcare, all with the threat of deportation hanging over them.”



Brexit: The Worst Is Yet to Come
(Berlin Policy Journal)
“Every day brings new twists and turns in the Brexit saga that make predictions difficult. But whatever the exact date and form of the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union, Brexit will have major geostrategic implications for the EU.”
—
“With Brexit, the EU is losing a significant part of its economic capability across a wide range of sectors. 
 The UK leaving will also profoundly change the EU’s relationship with other countries. 
 There are no guarantees that the UK would remain aligned to EU policy priorities after Brexit. 
The EU will lose the member state that probably still has the greatest access to covert intelligence information, leaving a gap in its capabilities. 
”



Putin's KGB record: not a high-flier or leader, but a solid B
by Mark Galeotti, Raam op Rusland
“Vladimir Putin's past as a KGB officer has long been part of the mythology around him, both in Russia and the West. 
 The truth, of course, is rather more complex, and the recent release of one of his KGB assessments highlights the more prosaic aspects of the job and his record. 
”
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