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04 May, 2018




✔︎ Lähiajaloo suurim sõjaline õppus Siil sai avalöögi | Exercise Siil 2018 kicks off in Estonia  - NATO


✔︎ "Western media still have this thing where they try to be completely balanced, so they’ll say, ‘the Russians say this, but on the other hand the Americans say this is not true,’ They end up giving a lie and the truth the same value.”  
- Toomas Hendrik Ilves


✔︎ Eesti on Nõukogude Liidust pääsenud riikidest kõige rohkem läänestunud  
- ‘StrategEast'


✔︎ More than 40 Percent of Russians Live on Less than 10 US Dollars a Day  
- Window on Eurasia


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- Emumägi foto:

- Archive:

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Friday 4. May
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- Eesti sõjaväeluure juht: Venemaa peidab oma sõjalisi kulutusi
(ERR)
"Ehkki Venemaa nominaalsed sõjalised kulutused mullu langesid ja peaksid langema ka edaspidi, on Vene riigieelarves salastatud sõjaliste kulutuste osakaal aasta-aastalt hoopis kasvanud, leiab Eesti kaitseväe luurekeskuse ülem kolonel Kaupo Rosin."

- Military intelligence chief: Russia obfuscating actual military spending
(ERR)
"In the 2017 annual review of the Estonian Defence Forces (EDF), Col. Rosin writes that Russia's military spending is in fact greater than reported, with some positions hidden away in the federal budget."



Report: Estonia is most westernized of former Soviet Union members
(Baltic Times | ERR)

- Eesti on Nõukogude Liidust pääsenud riikidest kõige rohkem läänestunud
(Postimees - 29. April)

- StrategEast Westernization Index 2018
(StrategEast - Washington, DC)
[Estonia scored 93 out of 100 - page 62 of this PDF report.]



- Tänavu on kavas idapiiri väljaehitamiseks kulutada 17 miljonit
(ERR)
"Esimest korda kogunenud idapiiri väljaehitamise nõukogu sai ülevaate piiriehituse hetkeseisust, tänavu on kavas kulutada idapiiri väljaehitamiseks 17 miljonit eurot."



- We Need a NATO for Infowar
(Defense One)
"Western media still have this thing where they try to be completely balanced, so they’ll say, ‘the Russians say this, but on the other hand the Americans say this is not true,’ They end up giving a lie and the truth the same value,” noted Toomas Hendrik Ilves, the former president of Estonia."



- Eestile lähimas Venemaa tuumajaamas on kõrgendatud terrorioht
(Postimees)



- Danish bank criticized for money laundering out of Estonia
(Washington Post | Baltic Times)
“… there were 'serious shortcomings' in the anti-money laundering operations of Danske Bank’ activities in Estonia, following reports this year of money flows from family members of Russian President Vladimir Putin."
"The Financial Supervision Authority (FSA) of Denmark has decided not to punish Danske Bank for enabling money laundering via its Estonian branch, but has issued eight orders and eight reprimands to Danske Bank."



The Crimea Bridge: Dutch firms probed for alleged breaches of EU sanctions
(Reuters)
"Prosecutors in the Netherlands have opened a criminal investigation into seven Dutch companies and their directors for allegedly breaching European Union sanctions against Moscow, by helping Russia build a bridge to Crimea."


Foto: The Moscow Times




Opinion: Europe Has No Clue How to Handle an American Bully
(Foreign Policy)
"If the United States tears up the Iran nuclear deal — the multilateral agreement that is currently making it impossible for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons — it will be more than just a typical Trumpian blunder or evidence of the continued influence of the hard-line wing of the Israel lobby and its Saudi and Gulf Arab counterparts. It will also be another sign of Europe’s strategic irrelevance, and its leaders’ collective inability to either stand up to the United States or alter its thinking on an issue of paramount importance."





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Siil 2018

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Siil 2018Largest Military Exercise Since Independence Starts In Estonia
(Various sources)
"Besides the Estonian military, some 2,000 troops from 15 countries - the United States, Britain, Germany, France, Canada, Poland, Ukraine, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Belgium, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Georgia - were set to take part."
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"In addition to the regular military, Estonian reservists, police, and rescue services are also attending the exercise, which will focus on territorial defense and will be held in three separate stages."
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SIIL õppus kaitseministeeriumis (Foto: Anna Aurelia Minev/ERR)
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"Naiskodukaitsjad osalevad suurõppusel Siil 2018 kümnetes erinevates rollides.”
"Jüri Ratas külastas Tartus suurõppust Siil”
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"Eesti suurimal kaitseväeõppusel Siil 2018 harjutab järgmise kümne päeva jooksul riigikaitse tegevusi ligi 15 000 osalejat.”
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"Altogether 50 checkpoints manned by more than 200 police officers and Defence League volunteers will be set up near Keila and in the different counties of South Estonia."
"Snap exercise for 223 reservists announced as part of Siil exercise.”




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Thursday 3. May
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- Estonia among ten EU members to join Macron's defense initiative
(Politico-Europe)
"Defense ministers of France, the U.K., Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, Portugal, Denmark and Estonia will sign a letter of intent in Paris in June, pledging to develop a common strategic culture, share analysis and foresight on trouble spots that may require intervention and work to coordinate their forces for future operations."
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macrons-eu-defense-army-coalition-of-the-willing-military-cooperation/


- Young Europeans believe in the EU
(Deutsche Welle)
"Asked to vote on whether their country should leave the European Union, 71 percent of young Europeans said "no," an increase over last year when 61 percent said they would opt to remain. Their attitudes definitely have to do with the effect of Brexit … Young people voted against Brexit beforehand, and now they're seeing how poorly the negotiations are working between the EU and the United Kingdom."




- Europe’s Depopulation Time Bomb Is Ticking in the Baltics
(Bloomberg)
"In Estonia, with a population of 1.32 million, the UN foresees a 13 percent decline by 2050, growing to 32 percent by 2100. And in Lithuania, the current population of 2.87 million is expected to drop by 17 percent in 2050. By 2100, it will have lost 34 percent. Bulgaria’s population may shrink to World War II levels.”
"Latvia, with a current population of 1.96 million, has lost about 25 percent of its residents since throwing off Soviet control in 1991. The UN predicts that by 2050, it will have lost an additional 22 percent of its current population—second only to Bulgaria—and by 2100, 41 percent."



- Eastern Europe's Long Road to Democratic Decline
(Foreign Policy)
"Two of the region’s poster children for postcommunist democratization, Hungary and Poland, have seen conservative populists win sweeping electoral victories while demonizing the political opposition, scapegoating minorities, and undermining liberal checks and balances. Other countries in the region, including the Czech Republic and Romania, seem poised to follow ...” 



- Estonian Embassy in Cairo celebrates the Baltic state's 100th anniversary
(Egypt Today)



- EU is gearing up for its first major budget battle of the post-Brexit period
(BBC)
"The current long term budget, for 2014-2020, represents about 1% of the 28-nation bloc's total gross national income."



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Armenia

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- Armenia’s ‘Velvet Revolution’ Threatens Moscow’s Continued Leverage Over Country
By: Eduard Abrahamyan, Gevorg Melikyan
(Jamestown)
"Armenia has been in the grips of a mass public protest movement since early April, when opposition leader and member of parliament Nikol Pashinyan launched street demonstrations and strikes in cities all over the country against former president Serzh Sargsyan’s attempt to be named the next prime minister. With Sargsyan’s Republican Party holding a majority in the legislature, the constitutional reforms of 2015—which shifted the country from a presidential to a parliamentary system—would entitle Sargsyan to hold onto power as head of government for an indefinite period …”




- Putin Playing a Long Game in Armenia

by Paul Goble

(Window on Eurasia)

"Putin and those who favor his kind of authoritarian governance know very well that the Armenian events so far have not been a full-blown revolutionary Maidan and that their strategy must be to prevent them from growing into such an event. Allowing Pashinyan to become prime minister helps them to do that …"


- Armenia’s revolution continues, as its opposition leader nears power
(Jamestown)

- Armenian Students March In Support Of Pashinian
(RFERL)

- Did Armenia just dance its way to revolution?
(Washington Post)

- An Armenian Warning
(Riddle)





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Wednesday 3. May
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Intervjuu: Eesti Politseijuht Elmar Vaher
(ERR)



- Sputnik kaebas Eesti ajakirjanduse Pressinõukogusse
(Propastop)

- Sputnik lodged a complaint with the Press Council against the Estonian Press
(Propastop)



- Why NATO Needs a Streamlined Decisionmaking Process
(National Interest)






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Monday 30. April
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- Russia's 'floating Chernobyl' nuclear power plant heads out to sea
(Deutsche Welle)



- Estonia, Finland to hold joint government meeting in Tallinn
(ERR)



- Finns are spending less on alcohol, more on services in Estonia
(Helsinki Times)
"The share of visitors who brought alcoholic beverages to Finland decreased from 81 per cent in 2014 to 69 per cent in 2017 and has continued to fall in 2018 …"



- How Estonia built a digital first government
(PBS News Hour video)






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Russia
Trust No One"
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✔︎ ReportMore than 40 Percent of Russians Live on Less than 10 US Dollars a Day
(Window on Eurasia)

Report: Russian military spending falls, could affect operations
(Reuters)

- Global military spending remains high at $1.7 trillion
(Stockholm International Peace Research Institute)

"Spending falls sharply in Russia, but rises in Central and Western Europe

At $66.3 billion, Russia’s military spending in 2017 was 20 per cent lower than in 2016, the first annual decrease since 1998. …"



- Russia’s New Internet Crackdown: How Tech-Savvy Citizens Are Trying To Thwart It
(Newsweek)
“It is Russia’s 'first huge act of censorship,' says Ilya Andreev, co-founder of Estonia-based Vee Security, a software company that has been helping Telegraph users bypass the ban. 'The government has been blocking small [internet] resources since 2014,' he adds. If RKN succeeds with this block, “worse ones will come …"



- The Promise and Failure of the House Intelligence Committee Report on Russian Election Interference
by Prof. Carrie Cordero, Georgetown Law
(Lawfare)
"In short, the report adds little new substantive information updating the narrative of what happened surrounding Russian interference in the election. It draws some high-level conclusions that are not supported by the unclassified text in the report. It appears more focused on assessing the U.S. reaction to the Russian influence activity than the underlying activity itself. In addition, the publication of the report appears severely rushed; the underlying investigation, inadequate.”
"Two aspects of the report’s release strike me as particularly unfortunate. First, the sections of the report that could have been useful are overshadowed by the overtly political passages and conclusions. … Second, it is fairly obvious that this report was rushed to publication. … The rush job is evident even in the redactions present: On several pages there are incorrect classification marks, indicating a level of carelessness that comes from pressure to finish and disregard for the potential harmful consequences to national security of making mistakes. More significantly, Chapter 2, entitled “Russia Attacks the United States,” is mostly redacted. …”
"But given that this particular report has been unduly influenced by political objectives, the best outcome would be for this report to be set aside while the public waits for the conclusions of the bipartisan Senate version."

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