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07 July, 2017


✔ KĂ€rgula, VĂ”rumaa: While visiting relatives, I attended my first JaanipĂ€ev (Midsummer Day) celebration on Estonian soil. The well-attended event was held on a clearing behind the local school which included a band, dancing, food, and a traditional, huge bonfire. A 90 year old gentleman who had lived his whole life in the area had the honor of lighting the bonfire. In my area of the US bonfires are either not allowed at all, or are monitored by a constantly running diesel-engine firetruck which naturally ruins the atmosphere. Nothing awful like that here - JaanipĂ€ev in VĂ”rumaa was a great experience.
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History can be seen in every corner of Eesti. Just behind the outdoor stage, among the birch trees, is the site of KĂ€rgula’s original school, built in 1852. It had been burned down during the German military’s retreat in 1944, now memorialized by a plaque.

Foto: Aavo Harju
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✔ Estonia's 2017 EU Council Presidency begins

✔ U.S. House Voted 423-4 To Reaffirm NATO's Article 5

✔ U.S. Vice President Mike Pence to arrive in Estonia on July 30

✔ U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency Report: Russia Military Power
[The 2017 report examines the capabilities of the Russian military.]

- EstoNews Blog:


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Friday 7. July 
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- Kiirotsing: mis saab koduvalla nimeks pĂ€rast haldusreformi?
(ERR)
"SĂŒgisest on Eestis 213 omavalitsuse asemel 79."



✔ Estonia is trying to convert the EU to its digital creed
(The Economist)
“Estonia has carved out a niche as a startup hub and a friendly environment for foreign businesses. Its biggest innovation, however, lies in e-government. â€Š These achievements have made e-government a potent source of soft power for Estonia. Its latest startup is an e-governance academy designed to spread the word, and pilgrimages to Tallinn are now compulsory for governments curious about digitisation. “Is it true that there’s only 1.3m of you? I don’t believe it! You are everywhere,” exclaimed an African emissary on a recent visit. 
 Estonia is aiming for 10m e-residents by 2025. Many of them, it hopes, will be British entrepreneurs otherwise severed from the European Union’s single market by Brexit. “E-residency”, says an official, “is our gift to the world.”
—
"Vested interests and distracted politicians have often limited Europe’s ambitions on digital matters. Having regained their self-confidence, Europe’s leaders are seeking fresh ideas to boost growth. The EU has long paid homage to the potential of the digital economy, and Estonia’s presidency offers them a chance to make this word flesh. “We are on the brink of an ideological shift in the rest of the EU,” says Ms Kaljulaid. With luck, this will turn out to be more than an expression of faith."



- Chinese warships in the Baltic Sea
(Radio Sweden)

"A fleet of Chinese warships last week met their Russian counterparts in the waters off St Petersburg to begin the Joint Sea 2017 exercise. The Chinese fleet includes an advanced 052 Destroyer, a frigate, a support vessel, a helicopter and Chinese marines. It is the first time the Chinese navy has taken part in an exercise in the Baltic." 

- China and Russia’s Joint Sea 2017 Baltic Naval Exercise Highlight a New Normal in Europe
(U.S. Naval Institute)
"The exercise in the Baltic may be seen as a subtle signal of Chinese support for Russia’s efforts to reshape the European security order 
"
—



- Estonia's Inflation Eases In June
(Business Insider)



- Putin ja Trump kÀtlesid G20 kohtumisel
(ERR | Postimees | Delfi)
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- Breaking down the Putin-Trump encounter
(AP | The Hill | New York Times)

"Trump and Putin were joined in the meeting by Russian Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.”
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"Trump team insisted on smaller Putin meeting to avoid leaks.”
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"Trump and Putin met for more than two hours. It had originally been scheduled for just 30 minutes."
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"Trump opened his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin by raising concerns about Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. â€Š Putin denied any involvement."
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"Russian President Vladimir Putin says he had a long conversation with President Donald Trump, and says that “many issues have piled up, including Ukraine, Syria, some bilateral and other issues.”
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"Secretary of State Rex Tillerson says â€œthe meeting was very constructive” and that the two leaders “connected very quickly.”

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Thursday 6. July 
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✔ KĂ”ige populaarsemad erialad Eesti neljas suuremas ĂŒlikoolis
(ERR)
(Eesti maaĂŒlikool, Tallina ĂŒlikool, Tartu ĂŒlikool ja Tallinna tehnikaĂŒlikool)



- Interview: President Kaljulaid
(Euronews)



- Estonia seventh in the yearly Russia’s “enemies” list - two notches up from last year
(Estonian World)
"This year’s list is topped by the United States (69%), Ukraine (50%), Germany, Latvia and Lithuania (all 24%). The sixth most hostile enemy, according to the people, is Poland (21%).”
—
“
 in 2007, the country topped the list with 60 per cent of the poll’s respondents naming Estonia as a hostile country - making the tiny state of 1.3 million the biggest enemy of the Russian Federation."



- Trump in Poland -

- USA presidendi ja Ida-Euroopa riigipeade kohtumine
(ERR | Delfi)
"Kohtumisel osalenud president Kersti Kaljulaid keskendus oma sĂ”navĂ”tus kĂŒberjulgeoleku olulisusele."

Foto: ERR
"RÀÀkisin talle (Trump) digitaalsest ĂŒhiskonnas, sellest, et Eesti on selline ja et meil on palju pakkuda. Nii nagu neil meile on palju pakkuda, on ka meil neile pakkuda, vaatamata sellele, et oleme oluliselt vĂ€iksemad. Meie digitaalse ĂŒhiskonnana jagame neid kĂŒbersfÀÀri riske ilmselgelt paremini kui teised, peame kĂ”ik koos tegema tööd selle nimel, et igasugune Wannacry ei pÀÀseks meie digitaalseid riike tulevikus rĂŒndama, kui me oleme need ĂŒles ehitanud. Ja pakkusin koostööd kĂ”ikidele Ida-ja Kesk-Euroopa riikidele selles valdkonnas."
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- Trumpi kÔne Poola rahvale - USA seisab artikli viis taga
(ERR)

- The 'Three Seas Initiative’ meeting in Warsaw
(ERR | Radio Poland)
"Trump is meeting the heads of state of the Three Seas Initiative, to which 12 countries from the Mediterranean and the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea belong, among them President Kersti Kaljulaid."
—

- US ‘stands firmly’ behind NATO mutual defence
(Radio Poland)
"Following his earlier meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda, Trump was asked if he had guaranteed the presence of American forces in Poland as long as a threat from Russia existed. Trump said: “We did not discuss guarantees ... but certainly [US troops] have been here for a long time, we have quite a few troops here, up to 5,000, and we will continue to do that and we will continue to work with Poland.”

- Bused-in Crowds Do Their Job During Trump’s Warsaw Speech
(New York Magazine)
"Crowd builds in Warsaw, Poland ahead of POTUS speech - note the Trump campaign banner and the Confederate Flag.” - Twitter post


- Trump Is Huge in Poland. So, There’s That.
(Politico)
"Warsaw appears to have followed a formula that emerged last month in Saudi Arabia. First, shower the president with praise just for showing up. Second, arrange a public event that puts him in the best possible light. And third, announce the purchase of American weapons during the visit. Thursday’s twist was for Polish officials to deliver on a promise to bus in a rent-a-crowd to chant Trump’s name over and over again. While some viewers around the world might have recoiled at the contrived clapping and cheering, it probably went down well in Poland and among the large community of Polish-Americans in Middle America - and it certainly went over well in the West Wing." 

- Trump Is Taking Advantage of Europe’s Divides, Not Causing Them
(The New Yorker)
“
 the optimism of Europe’s liberal order is not shared in Poland or Hungary. For them, a stronger European Union means greater pressure from Brussels, which they distrust and regard as overreaching. Poland has been under harsh criticism for its anti-democratic practices. Earlier this year, the E.U. Commissioner for Justice threatened to cut the organization’s funding to Poland if it failed to uphold fundamental European values. Poland is the E.U.’s largest recipient of funds.”



- Putini kÔrgtehnoloogiline tulevikusÔdur
(Postimees)





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Wednesday 5. July 
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- Estonia following development of Russian floating nuclear power station
(ERR | Yle)
"Russia’s floating nuclear power station Akademik Lomonosov will be towed from St. Petersburg through the Baltic and North seas and finally to Eastern Siberia. Estonia is following these activities, analysing radiation and environmental risks."
—
"The head of Finland's nuclear watchdog is heading to St Petersburg soon to discuss the project with Russian officials."



- Balti riigid pole praegu otseselt Venemaa propaganda sihtmÀrk
(ERR)



- Ungarlaste soomukid jÔudis VÔrru
(LÔuna Leht)
"Eile maandus Tartu lennuvĂ€ljal USA Ă”hujĂ”udude transpordilennukiga C-17 Globemaster Ungari jalavĂ€eĂŒksus, et alustada ĂŒhist vĂ€ljaĂ”pet 2. jalavĂ€ebrigaadiga. Üksus saabus siia Ă”ppuse Training Bridge 2017 raames ja jÀÀb Eestisse kolmekuuliseks rotatsiooniks."
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- Estonia doesn't want to return to 'Soviet times’
(Australia Broadcasting - video)
“I’m 38 years old. I remember the Soviet times. I remember the Soviet Army. And I don’t want that back. Freedom is not granted, as we can see in the world today. Even today, in 2017.” - Software developer Kaupo Karuse



✔ Report: Russia Military Power
(U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency)
[The 116-page 2017 report examines the capabilities of the Russian military.]



- Airborne exercise underway in Russia’s Pskov oblast, 31 miles from Estonian border
(Newsweek | ERR)
"Russia’s elite paratrooper division (VDV) is set to take place off the town of Kislovo, less than 50km from Russia’s border with Estonia 
"
--
“
 may be a deliberate, implicit scare tactic by Moscow, rather than a genuine intention to attack the Baltics."
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Tuesday 4. July 
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✔ The 15 go-to Estonians in Brussels who will drive their country’s EU presidency
(Politico-Europe)
"POLITICO sifted through the 210 Estonians working at the European Commission, the 200 at the country’s permanent representation to the EU (which has doubled its size for the presidency), the country’s six members of the European Parliament, and its six members of the Committee of the Regions. Here are the 15 Estonians you most need to know."

- Eesti Euroopa Liidu NÔukogu eesistumine
(EU2017,ee)

- Estonia's 2017 EU Council Presidency
(ERR)



- Kaitseinvesteeringute keskus tahab 75 miljoni eest tulirelvi osta
(Postimees)
"Kaitseinvesteeringute keskus tahab osta 1. ja 2. jalavÀebrigaadile uued 5,56-millimeetrised ja 7,62-millimeetrised automaattulirelvad 
"

- Estonia urges EU to do more on defence
(Euronews)



- Estonia's journey from backward Soviet state to one of world's most wired countries
(ABC - Australia)



- USA iseseisvuspÀeva tÀhistamine Tallinnas
(ERR)




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Monday 3. July 
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- Intervjuu: President Kersti Kaljulaid
KĂŒsitleja: Ülle Harju
(LÔuna Leht)
[Kaljulaid oli VÔru maakonnas paar nÀdalad tagasi.]



- Postimehe fotograafide 50 kĂ”ige eredamat hetke tantsu ja laulupeost
(Postimees)

- Photos: Estonia’s Youth Song and Dance Celebration 2017
(Estonian World)



- Central European and Baltic economies shrugging off political uncertainty
(BNE)
"GDP growth projections for 2017 range from 2.3% for Estonia to 4% in Hungary. The forecast for Poland is less optimistic than most at 3.3%. Slovakia is expected to grow at the same rate, with Lithuania (3%) and Latvia (2.9%) not far behind."




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Sunday 2. July
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✔ EU presidency highlights think-big confidence of tiny Estonia
(Financial Times)

"Estonia’s presidency starts in July rather than January because of one political rupture: the Brexit vote forced the UK to pull out of its scheduled turn."
--
"Its biggest challenge will be managing another: the east-west divide across a host of legislation, which either seems stuck (asylum reform), highly divisive (French-led efforts to tighten terms for “posted workers”) or destined to be difficult (the Russian Nordstream 2 gas pipeline across the Baltic Sea to Germany)."

- The Estonian presidency of the council of the EU begins – what does it entail?
(Estonian World)
"During the presidency, about 20 meetings at the ministerial level, visits and conferences as well as around 200 other presidency-related events are taking place in Estonia during the presidency. Most of these events are related to the political and daily work of the EU, but Estonia will also attract thousands of new visitors to the country – for example, foreign journalists."

- Estonia takes EU's helm with focus on digitalization, cyberdefense
(Deutsche Welle 29. June)
"Coming on the heels of major cyberattacks hitting the election systems of major Western democracies from the United States to France, Estonia, which established itself as a pioneer in cyberdefense and is home to NATO's Centre of Cyber Excellence, feels it can help.”
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"Estonia is able to show, in concrete terms, what it means to be more digital and build e-government. 
 It's done it, and it has gotten clear benefits."

- Kaljulaid meets with Tusk and Juncker
(Baltic Times)
"Juncker expressed interest in Rail Baltic as well as the desynchronization of Estonia's power networks from the Russian networks. When speaking about funding cross-border transport networks, Juncker said that he believes that we can be sure of the priority of the funding continuing."

- Estonian president to EU: It’s payback time
(Politico-Europe - 30. June)

- I am convinced Estonia will deliver
(ERR | Diplomaatia)
“Your team is ready, we’ve seen great efforts you’ve made over the last months. We’re in good hands.” - European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker
—



- Europe has been working to expose Russian meddling for years
(Washington Post | RFERL)
“Most of the malicious activities are aimed at eroding trust within our societies between different groups, political movements, the elites and the people,” said Jonatan Vseviov, permanent secretary of Estonia’s Ministry of Defense."
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"Russia’s efforts in Estonia have not had much success to date, largely because many in society are aware of such propaganda, the government is vigilant and the nation’s ethnic Russians have little desire to join with the Kremlin because they live better in Estonia than they would across the border, analysts say."
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- NATO -
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- U.S. House Votes 423-4 To Reaffirm NATO's Mutual-Defense Guarantee
(RFERL 28. June)

- H.Res.397
“Solemnly reaffirms the commitment of the United States to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s principle of collective defense as enumerated in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty"



- The NATO-Russia Founding Act: A Dead Letter
(Carnegie Europe - 29. June)

"To build a sustainable, efficient, and effective deterrent posture that reassures Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, and Poles, the alliance needs to detach itself from the founding act. Admittedly, this is unlikely to occur in the short run, before two important events. First, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is unlikely to embark on what could become a major foreign policy debate in Germany before the federal election there in September, even as polls show her pulling away from her Social Democratic challenger, Martin Schulz. Second, the alliance is unlikely to discuss the founding act before the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has a chance to develop its strategy and supporting policies toward Russia."
--
"Once these events occur, however, the alliance ought to move forthrightly yet quietly toward ignoring the founding act." 

- The 1997 NATO–Russia Founding Act Does Not Prohibit Permanent NATO Bases in Eastern Europe
(The Heritage Foundation - April 2016)



- NATO to closely follow Russia, China, Belarus drills near Baltic borders
(Baltic Times)



- NATO to increase non-US spending by 4.3 percent in 2017
(Politico-Europe | Washington Post - 28. June)
—




- Thank Putin, Not Trump, For NATO’s New Defense Spending Boost
(Foreign Policy)
"The reason U.S. forces are in Europe is not out of charity to the Europeans. The security of the U.S. would be directly affected if Europe came under the domination of an unfriendly power.” - Defense Secretary Jim Mattis



- Hybrid influence: Lessons from Finland
(NATO Review)
"The roots of Russia’s hybrid methods go back to the Soviet era, although the label is more recent. “Active measures”, as hybrid was called back then – such as spreading disinformation and setting up front organisations in the West – was an integral part of Soviet foreign policy. Today, some of Russia’s tactics are surprisingly similar but the current information environment makes their use both more efficient and complex."





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- Russia -
"Trust No One"
_____________

"Russia and NATO have entered a new cold war as a result of Russian aggression in Ukraine, and an arms race has begun as well. Both are certain to last a long time. NATO has already proven its worth by putting forces in the Baltic countries and Poland. After the Western alliance did that, Putin stopped talking about his “Novorossiya” project.” - Aleksandr Golts, Moscow military specialist 



- Kremlin Now Telling Russians They Face a Falling Standard of Living for Years to Come
by Paul Goble
(Window On Eurasia)

- Russia has as Many as Five Million Homeless, Not the 64,000 Rosstat Reports

- Nearly 40 Percent of Russian Economy Still in Shadow Sector



- A Baker’s Double Dozen of Neglected Russian Stories
by Paul Goble
(Window On Eurasia)



- How History Will Remember Vladimir Putin
By Stephen Blank
(Atlantic Council)



- Putin’s Greatest Fear is the FSB Refusing to Fire on the Russian People
(Window on Eurasia)

(Aleksandr Golts, a Moscow specialist on military affairs, said)... “the experience of 1991 hangs over Putin, when Soviet paratroopers having held conversations with the KGB special forces replied that ‘no, we will not shoot’” at the population. That fear explains why the Kremlin leader created the National Guard which he believes will “fulfill any order.”
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  "But the reality is that when “a critical situation arises,” it won’t be his old bodyguard who “comes running with a pistol. Decisions will be taken by specific individuals,” Golts continues. “When the order comes to open fire, this means that inside the country the situation has become critical.”




- The Kremlin threatens its neighbors, again
by Edward Lucas
(CEPA)

- We were warned about Russia, but didn’t listen
by Edward Lucas
(CAPX)
"The good news is that the era of complacency and wishful thinking about Russia in many countries is over. Nato is now taking serious steps to defend the frontline states. Britain has sent 850 soldiers to Estonia, to lead a Nato deployment there. Canada is playing the same role in Latvia, Germany in Lithuania and the United States in Poland."
--
"The Kremlin doesn’t like that, any more than it likes the US Marines’ presence in Norway. But it has only itself to blame. Over the past 25 years. Russia could have consciously tried to be friends with its ex-colonies—after all, they had all helped bring down the evil empire. West Germany managed from the 1950s onwards to befriend the victims of Hitler’s Third Reich, to everyone’s benefit. But Russia chose instead to linger in a post-imperial sulk. We all suffer the consequences."



- Russia Very Much a Threat to the United States
(Foreign Policy)
“The Kremlin is convinced the United States is laying the groundwork for regime change in Russia.”



- Belarusians March against Russian-Belarusian Military Exercise
(Window on Eurasia)
"Several hundred Belarusians staged an independent protest in Minsk against plans for a joint Belarusian-Russian military exercise later this year (Zapad-2017) that Moscow has acknowledged is a response to the NATO build-up in eastern Europe but that Belarusians fear may be used by Moscow to increase Russian control of Belarus."

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