“Russia is following the Soviet approach of making ultimatums in the hope of being offered some concessions by the West.”
- Kaja Kallas during a France24 interview today
US and NATO delivered written replies to Russia on their security demands
“We’re not releasing the document publicly.”
(Politico-Europe | RFERL | CBC)
“While the contents of the Western responses were not released, senior leaders have been clear they will not negotiate on Russia’s core demands even if they are willing to discuss other concerns. On Wednesday night, officials also made an effort to display a united front amid ongoing disagreements among allies over exactly how — and when — to punish Russia in case of an invasion.”
—
“Our responses were fully coordinated with Ukraine and our European allies and partners,” U.S. Secretary of Antony Blinken said in remarks. But, he noted, “we’re not releasing the document publicly.”
—
“NATO’s responses were similarly done “in parallel with the United States,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in separate remarks from Brussels. Stoltenberg, U.S. President Joe Biden and other senior officials have described most of the Russian demands as “non-starters.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/us-delivers-written-reply-to-russia-on-security-demands/
—
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-biden-putin-sanctions/31671771.html
—
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-united-states-nato-1.6327972
NB! “On Tuesday, Feb. 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET (New York time), Washington Post columnist David Ignatius speaks with Estonia’s prime minister Kaja Kallas about what is at stake for the region in the current crisis, her country’s role in NATO and its history with Russia as a former Soviet republic.”
(Live event)
NATO ei lähe kompromissidele oma aluspõhimõtete osas
(Postimees)
“NATO peasekretär Jens Stoltenberg andis kolmapäeva õhtul pressikonverentsi alliansi kirjaliku vastuse kohta. Peasekretär on varem öelnud, et NATO on valmis kuulama Venemaa «muresid», kuid ei kavatse teha järeleandmisi oma aluspõhimõtetes.”
“Ukraina Päevik: Mis toimub riigis, mida Venemaa ähvardab rünnata?” - Postimees
 |
| Screenshot: Postimees |
Friday 28. January
Interview: PM Kaja Kallas
(The Guardian)
“In recent weeks she has become one of the most forthright advocates in the west of the argument that Vladimir Putin only responds to shows of strength. She said the Russian president’s demands that Nato returns to its pre-1997 borders put her country’s future at stake. Estonia, in common with the other Baltic states, joined Nato in 2004 and is protected by the alliance’s article 5 joint self-defence clause.”
—
“We in Europe have been talking about dependence on Russian gas for quite some years already, but if you look at the numbers, the dependence on Russia has been increasing not decreasing. It is a big worry. Europe has to increase its independence from Russian gas. It is so important.”
—
“… she said she saw no sign of concessions being made by Nato in its discussions with Russia. “The level of consultation on the Nato side has been excellent. Being a small country of 1.3 million people, it is easy for the big ones only to consult amongst themselves, and go over our heads, but this has not happened. Overall the level of unity we have shown will have surprised Putin.”
Kaja Kallas warns against 'any steps towards Russia’
(France24)
“Europe and the US should be "very careful" not to make concessions to Russia, Estonia's prime minister told AFP on Friday, insisting that Moscow alone can de-escalate the situation. … “Russia was following a Soviet approach of making ultimatums in the hope of being offered some concessions by the West.”
—
"That is something that we should definitely be very careful of, that we don't make any steps towards Russia or offer them anything that they didn't have before.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220128-estonian-pm-warns-against-any-steps-towards-russia
“The U.S. is making sure to include its European allies as it confronts Russia.” - New York Times
“The Kremlin has aggressively pushed falsehoods about the Eastern European country and NATO.” - Politico-Europe
Lukašenka ähvardas sõja korral Baltimaid riikluse kaotamisega
(Postimees)
“Hoidku jumal, kui te vallandate sõja koos teiste Balti riikidega, see tähendab teie omariikluse ja arengu lõppu,” ähvardas Lukašenka Baltimaid pöördumises Valgevene rahva ja parlamendi poole. Ta lisas, et ei pöördu mitte ainult Balti riikide võimude, vaid ka nende rahvaste poole. “Ilma USA toetuseta jäävad Poola ja Leedu igaveseks Euroopa igavaks äärealaks.”
https://maailm.postimees.ee/7440860/lukasenka-ahvardas-soja-korral-baltimaid-riikluse-kaotamisega
Empty Rhetoric: “Lukashenko says Baltic countries could lose their statehood if war starts.” - Baltic Times
Enesetapp on Eesti noorte number üks surmapõhjus
(Eesti Päevaleht - log in required)
“Koroonapandeemia ajal on noorte suitsiidikatsete arv hüppeliselt suurenenud, ent põhjaliku suitsiidiennetuskava valmimine lükkub kaks aastat edasi.”
https://epl.delfi.ee/artikkel/95751725/enesetapp-on-eesti-noorte-number-uks-surmapohjus
Tallinn ja Rail Baltic Estonia alustasid Ülemiste terminaliks maade ostmist
(ERR)
“Linn on algatanud detailplaneeringu, mis ühendab terminali linnaruumiga mitme tee kaudu. Uude kohta nihutatav trammitee ja tänavad on osaliselt erakinnistutel T1 kaubanduskeskuse ja raudtee vahelisel alal. Kokku omandab linn maad 7195 ruutmeetri ulatuses.”
Narvas võib kaugküte 80% kallineda
(ERR)
“Narva elanikele oleks nii karm hinnatõus suurem löök kui elektri kallinemine.
"Üksi elavale prouale kahetoalises hruštšovkas on see aastane lisakulu 200-300 eurot, võib-olla isegi rohkem. Võimalik, et ei ole muud lahendust, kui pöörduda riigi poole, et doteerige siis palun Narvat sellel keerulisel ajal. Aga teine on see, et me peame vaatama ettepoole …”
https://www.err.ee/1608482132/narvas-voib-kaugkute-80-protsenti-kallineda
Opinion: A more balanced consideration about Vladimir Putin is in order
By Eliot A. Cohen, The Atlantic
“The commentary on the Russian buildup and threats has taken many forms—pointless quarter-century-old recriminations about NATO expansion, foolish psychotherapeutic diagnoses of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s need for “respect,” assertions that the Biden administration’s weakness created this situation, and, above all, the belief that Putin has not only Ukraine, but the whole West, including the United States, exactly where he wants it. A more balanced consideration is in order.”
—
“Ukraine is a problem for Putin’s Russia not because it may join NATO, but because it is democratizing—slowly, awkwardly, imperfectly—and after 30 years of independence is constructing a new national identity. … The Russian dictator has made demands that he knows cannot be met. He has issued them publicly when such things are usually done in private, meaning that he is looking for a fight on any terms.”
—
“Although Putin has hitherto played a weak hand very well, the fact is that the Russian military is not the Wehrmacht, or even the Red Army of old. It has some first-rate bits, some well-trained special forces, and good technology. But it still suffers from all of its old faults, including in maintenance, morale, and initiative. Armed forces reflect their societies, and although Russia is a lot better off than it was in the ’90s, it remains a society with poor public health; a crude, resource-based economy; and a deeply corrupt and self-seeking elite. …”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/01/russia-ukraine-putin-nato/621370/
“Vladimir Putini viimased päevad.” - Postimees/WSJ
“Waiting for the Last Days of Putin.” - WSJ
“Putin on surunud lääne just sinna, kuhu ta tahab.” - Postimees
“Is It Time to Get Tough With Russia?” - National Interest
“Boris Johnson has confirmed more troops could be sent to Estonia if Russia invades Ukraine.” - Metro, UK
Thursday 27. January
Lõunaeestlased said koleda ehmatuse osaliseks
(Postimees)
“Eile õhtul kella 23 ajal suundusid kaks Ämari lennubaasis paiknevat Belgia õhuturbe hävitajat F-16 ülehelikiirusel tuvastuslennule, sest Läti õhuruumis lennanud lennukil oli katkenud side lennujuhtimisüksusega. Tuvastuslennu käigus side taastus ning hävitajad suundusid tagasi lennubaasi. Ülehelikiirusel lendamine oli vajalik, et jõuda võimalikult kiiresti tuvastamist vajava lennukini ja tagada õhuruumi kaitstus. Sellest tulenevalt võis eile õhtul Lõuna-Eesti piirkonnas kuulda tugevat plahvatusele sarnanevat müra. Õhuvägi vabandab kohalike elanike rahu häirimise eest ning loodab inimeste mõistvale suhtumisele.”
Metsakorralduse teadur: Eesti metsa definitsioon on võrdlemisi kitsas
(Novaator)
“Euroopas hakati metsa üle arvet pidama eri aegadel. Näiteks Soome, Rootsi, Norra ja Eesti alustasid süstemaatiliselt statistilise metsainventuuriga arvepidamist umbes 100 aastat tagasi. Kõige varasemad näited metsavarude inventeerimisest pärinevad aga 16. sajandist. "Peamine põhjus, miks puidu üle arvestust hakati pidama, oli hoogustuv laevaehitus.”
“Graafikud: RMK müüs puitu 52 miljoni euro jagu oksjonihindadest odavamalt.” - Postimees
F-15Es Deploy to Estonia to Aid NATO
(Air Force Magazine)
“While in Estonia, the American fighters will integrate with a detachment of Belgian F-16s … In addition to working on the enhanced air policing mission, they will also work with NATO allies in the Baltics to practice air-to-air and air-to-ground maneuvers.”
https://www.airforcemag.com/f-15es-deploy-to-estonia-to-aid-nato-air-policing-amid-russian-tensions/
“Six US fighter jets arrived in Estonia.” - Estonian World
“Danish F-16 fighter jets arrived at the Šiauliai Air Base in Lithuania.” - Estonian World Review
“NATO saadab Ida-Euroopasse lennukeid ja laevu.” - Postimees
“NATO saadab Ida-Euroopasse rohkem vägesid.” - Estonian World Review
“USA toob transpordilennukitega Eestisse õppusteks vajalikku varustust.” - ERR
How Estonia does it: Lessons from Europe’s best school system
(The Times, Uk)
“The tiny country — with a tiny budget to match — has focused on digital skills with resounding success.”
Estonian Health Board official: Risk of infection remains very high
(Baltic Times)
“The increase in morbidity among young people is high and it can be expected that there will be an average of 5,000 infections a day in the coming weeks.”
https://www.baltictimes.com/estonian_health_board_official__risk_of_infection_remains_very_high/
Nord Stream 2 will not move forward if Russia invades Ukraine
(Deutsche Welle)
“… the US would work with Germany to ensure the gas pipeline does not begin operations if Russia invades Ukraine, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock confirmed. He also added that when it came to Nord Stream 2, the gas was not flowing through the pipeline yet. Therefore, the US and its allies had the upper hand …”
https://www.dw.com/en/us-nord-stream-2-will-not-move-forward-if-russia-invades-ukraine/a-60568732
“Interview: US State Deptartment spokesman Ned Price.” - NPR
“Putin plaanib kohtuda ka Saksa ärijuhtidega.” - Postimees
Germany’s Paralyzing Fear of War
By Oxana Schmies, CEPA
“German-Russian history, traditional attitudes in German society, and long-established business links have conspired to make the issue harder and more contentious than it may have appeared during last year’s election campaign. This is compounded by the threat of what might be the biggest conflict on the continent for more than seven decades. The whole system of European security is being questioned by Russia, and Germany appears to be frozen by uncertainty.”
https://cepa.org/germanys-paralyzing-fear-of-war/
“German ambassador: Decision not yet made about Estonia's howitzers.” - ERR
“Kiievi linnapea kritiseerib Saksamaad relvatarnete tõttu.” - ERR
“Germany: Little Maneuvering Room regarding Ukraine Conflict.” - Spiegel
“Germany blocks Estonia from transferring weapons to Ukraine.” - Baltic Times
“Is Germany Damaging Europe’s Position on Ukraine?” - Carnegie Europe
“German Navy chief resigns following negative Ukraine comments.” - AP
“Joe Biden’s Germany headache.” - Financial Times
Valgevenest hakkab saama Venemaa platsdarm
(Postimees)
- Vene-Valgevene ühisõppus toob Valgevenesse teadmata arvu Vene sõdureid.
- Valgevenest oleks võimalik Kiievit tabada Vene pikamaarakettidega.
- Teine rinne Valgevenes sunniks Ukrainat oma vägedepaigutust hõrendama.
- Võimalik, et Valgevenesse paigutatakse Vene tuumavõimekusega alalised üksused.
“Poland begins construction of wall at border with Belarus.” - The Hill
Opinion: The U.S. can’t afford to leave Ukraine and Europe at Putin’s mercy
(Washington Post)
“The countries pushing for the toughest line — Poland and the Baltic republics — are the ones that feel most threatened by Russia. Because they are members of NATO, we are legally and morally bound to defend them. Sending more U.S. troops to their soil will strengthen deterrence and help to avert a wider conflict.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/01/25/us-cant-afford-leave-ukraine-europe-putins-mercy/
“Opinion: Washington is right to consider activating an emergency force allies have been reluctant to use.” - Wall Street Journal
“Ukraine’s foreign minister says diplomatic negotiations will continue.” - Politico
“The real prize in Ukraine is the end of American influence in Europe.” - The Atlantic
“This Is Putin’s Last Chance to Seize Ukraine.” - The Daily Beast
“Russia has its own limits and logic that make war unlikely.” - Foreign Policy
“Why Did Russia Escalate Its Gray Zone Conflict in Ukraine?” - Lawfare
“Russia Sends Medical Units to Ukrainian Front.” - WSJ
Ukraine: The West’s worst fears
(Politico-Europe)
“… experts warn of heavy casualties, thousands of refugees, a fractured country — and an unstable Continent. … In his standoff with the West over Ukraine, the Russian president has taken the guessing game to a whole new level.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-consequences-invasion-europe/
Wednesday 26. January
Intervjuu: Julgeolekuekspert Dmitri Teperik
(Postimees)
“USA vägede kasv Ida-Euroopas võib tuua Balti riikide pihta Vene hübriidrünnakud.”
—
“Teperik lisas, et Venemaa arsenalis on mitmeid meetmeid, millega Balti riike survestada. «Majandusest pole mõtet niivõrd rääkida, sest meie majandus pole enam Venemaaga eriti tugevalt seotud. Küll aga on võimalik šantažeerida näiteks energiaga – nii gaasi kui ka elektriga,» tõdes Teperik, lisades, et kuna Balti riikide süsteemid on endiselt sünkroniseeritud Venemaaga, võib Venemaa lahkumine sellest süsteemist Baltimaadele tähendada tõsiseid probleeme.”
—
“Ühtlasi võib Venemaa Teperiki hinnangul kasutada Balti riikide vastu küberrünnakuid. “Neil on see suutlikkus täiesti olemas ning usun, et meie vastavad ametid teevad sel teemal head tööd,” märkis Teperik, kelle sõnul on võimalik, et me pole Vene küberrünnakute tugevust veel täiel määral tundnud. “Arvan, et Venemaa võib reageerida ameeriklaste sõdurite kohalolekule Balti riikides mitte ilmtingimata sõjaliselt, vaid hübriidmeetodeid kasutades.”
“USA: kõik viitab Putini plaanile kasutada veebruari keskpaigaks jõudu.” - Postimees
Vene Vaatenurk: Baltimaad võivad Vene-USA kõnelustel olla osaks laiemast kokkuleppest
(Postimees)
“Vene kindraleid ärritab fakt, et kerge jalutuskäiguga Baltimaid enam ei valluta. … Üks ekspert tõi välja, et Venemaa võtab ohuna eelkõige NATO lennukite kohalolekut kolmes lennuväebaasis Eestis, Lätis ja Leedus.”
Kallas võttis kokku valitsuse aastase ametiaja: Eesti on tulnud tagasi
(Postimees)
“Peaminister Kaja Kallas (Reformierakond) sõnas ühismeediapostituses, et täna aastaseks saanud valitsuse igapäevatöö osaks on saanud mitmesuguste kriiside lahendamine.”
—
“Julgeolekukriisi kontekstis pidas Kallas oluliseks rõhutada, et võrreldes eelmise valitsusega on Eesti parandanud liitlassuhteid. «”Meie liitlased ja rahvusvahelised sõbrad ei pea Eesti pärast enam piinlikkust tundma,” märkis ta, lisades, et: “Eesti on tulnud tagasi.”
Finnish / Swedish foreign ministers met with NATO: they want to stay in the loop
(Yle)
“The ministers reiterated their countries' commitment to aid Nato in the de-escalation of ongoing tensions with Russia. … Cooperation between Finland, Sweden and Nato will strengthen the stability of the Baltic Sea region for the foreseeable future. Cooperation benefits all parties.”
https://yle.fi/news/3-12286230
How the war in Ukraine would affect Lithuanians
(Lithuanian Tribune)
“There is talk that if war breaks out and Europe does not certify Nord Stream 2, then, of course, Russia would adjust its gas supplies to Europe. In that case, gas prices would go up, and so would heating and oil prices. As a result, all goods and services would become more expensive.”
https://lithuaniatribune.com/how-the-war-in-ukraine-would-affect-lithuanians/
Only Putin Knows What Happens Next
By Tom Nichols, The Atlantic
“Russian military forces have been moving into position for weeks. Russia and Belarus announced snap exercises that will continue for at least a month. President Joe Biden says he is expecting an invasion, and there are reports that the U.S. embassy in Kyiv is planning to evacuate families and nonessential personnel.”
—
“If this isn’t the setup for a massive Russian invasion, it’s a damn good dress rehearsal. Through all of this, the Biden administration has cycled through every combination of threats to deter the Russians from attacking. But the reality is this: Putin created this crisis, and only Putin can end it.”
—
“… no one really knows why Putin is doing this, or whether he really intends to do it at all. It is unlikely that his own inner circle even has a good read on its boss. As Fyodor Lukyanov, a well-connected Russian foreign-policy figure, put it: “The expert opinion that I can authoritatively declare is: Who the heck knows?”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/01/putin-knows-what-happens-next-ukraine/621348/
“Why Is Putin Acting Now?” - Foreign Policy
“Hundreds of Junior Officers in Russian Military Seeking to Leave Service.” - Window on Eurasia
Ukrainian leaders: Stay calm, Russian invasion not imminent
(AP)
“Ukraine’s leaders sought Tuesday to reassure the nation that an invasion from neighboring Russia was not imminent, even as they acknowledged the threat is real and received a shipment of U.S. military equipment to shore up their defenses. Moscow has denied it is planning an assault …”
“Ukraine hopes 130,000 new civilian defensive forces will make Putin think twice.” - Foreign Policy
Tuesday 25. January
USA will assist Estonia in nuclear capacity building
(World Nuclear News)
“The USA and Estonia have agreed to cooperate under the US Department of State's Foundational Infrastructure for Responsible Use of Small Modular Reactor Technology (FIRST) capacity-building programme.”
https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/USA-to-assist-Estonia-in-nuclear-capacity-building
“Estonia joins a US nuclear programme.” - Estonian World
Life-hacks for the Estonian society – how to be polite in Estonia
By Lisanna Beckner, Estonian World
“Tallinn, for many Estonians, is a hellscape of noise. With its incomprehensible city planning that prioritises the car, it’s becoming less an Estonian-friendly place and more a place to pretend that other people care what model BMW you drive. Hence, the unspoken rule: don’t make any more noise, please.”
https://estonianworld.com/opinion/life-hacks-for-the-estonian-society-how-to-be-polite-in-estonia/
Ilves: Outlook for Ukraine ‘grim’
(CBC video interview)
“All of it looks pretty grim, said former Estonian president Toomas Hendrik Ilves when asked whether he believes a Russian attack on Ukraine is imminent, citing the Kremlin's 'impossible' demands on NATO and Russia's military buildup.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LO3_Kx2CY5U
“Kuidas arengud Ameerikas, Saksamaal ja Hiinas Putinit julgustavad.” - Postimees
“Estonia’s PM Kaja Kallas calls for greater US presence in Baltics.” - Financial Times, log in required
“Single-use Spike SR will join Spike LR in the Estonian military equipment inventory.” - Shephard Media
“NATO sending ships, jets to eastern flank.” - ERR
“Estonia’s Ambassador: Dozens of Javelin missiles ready for dispatch to Ukraine.” - Ukrinform
“U.S. puts 8,500 troops on alert as Russia tensions ramp up.” - Politico
“Washington to accelerate the sale of 250 M1A2 Abrams SEPv3 tanks to NATO ally Poland.” - Defense News
“On the Brink of War With Russia, Ukrainians Are Resigned and Prepared.” - Wall Street Journal, log in required
“Russia Seeks to Stop NATO’s Expansion, Not to Annex More Territory.” - Foreign Affairs, 28. Dec. 2021
Good work, Vlad! Putin resurrects NATO
(Politico)
“Barely two years after French President Emmanuel Macron declared it “brain-dead,” NATO has been resurrected by Russia’s threats over Ukraine, leaving the rusty but trusty United States-led defense alliance the only game in town for European security. How that serves Moscow’s decades-old strategic goal of pushing the U.S. out of Europe to better dominate the Continent, only … Putin knows. But to those of us not privy to his endgame, it seems counterintuitive, to say the least. Whatever Putin eventually chooses to do about Ukraine, if his aim was to weaken the Western alliance he has unquestionably scored a number of own goals. For one, he has boosted the appetite for NATO membership — or at least the determination to keep that option open — in Sweden and Finland.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-resurrect-nato-russia-ukraine/
Putin’s Making NATO Stronger, Whether He Starts a War in Ukraine or Not
(The Daily Beast)
“Regardless of what happens next between Russia and Ukraine, Putin has given the NATO alliance a renewed sense of purpose. He might have even strengthened it. At the same time, he has helped to restore the U.S.’ leadership role, which he has long sought to weaken.”
—
“The U.S. has mounted a carefully-calibrated, multi-front diplomatic and security initiative. And despite the fact that managing a 30-member alliance can often feel like herding cats, the West has shown great common purpose, decisively resolving to rebuff Putin’s threats. While the media may focus on outliers, the big story is the level of close coordination and shared resolve.”
—
“Putin has reminded the world, and especially Europeans, of the threat he poses. He has mobilized NATO into strong action, with America in the lead. NATO may even emerge larger, with Sweden and Finland publicly contemplating membership.”
Russia’s belief in ‘Nato’s 1990 betrayal’ and why it matters today
(The Guardian)
“The current confrontation between Russia and the west is fuelled by many grievances, but the greatest is the belief in Moscow that the west tricked the former Soviet Union by breaking promises made at the end of the cold war in 1989-1990 that Nato would not expand to the east. In his now famous 2007 speech to the Munich Security Conference, Vladimir Putin accused the west of forgetting and breaking assurances, leaving international law in ruins.”
—
“It matters desperately to Russia since it fuels distrust, feeds Russia’s cynicism about international law and is the central motive behind Russia’s draft security treaties calling for a reversal of Nato’s extension …”
—
“Putin claims that Baker, in a discussion on 9 February 1990 with the Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, made the promise that Nato would not expand to the east if Russia accepted Germany’s unification. … Were these promises ever written down in a treaty?
No, largely because Bush felt Baker and Kohl had gone too far, or in Baker’s words he had “got a little forward on his skis.”
—
“The final agreement signed by Russia and the west in September 1990 applied only to Germany.”
“Russia says it will take nothing less than a NATO expansion ban.” - PBS News Hour, 19. Jan.
“NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Claimed He Heard from the West in 1990.” - National Security Archive
And Finally:
What If Moscow Cancels Airline Overflight Rights?
(Defense One)
“Russian overflights are key to maintaining and expanding U.S. airlines’ global network,” the airlines’ trade association explained. Without these rights, inefficient routing would cause time penalties, technical stops, excess CO2 emissions, and loss of historic slot rights.”
—
“So far, Moscow hasn’t threatened to revoke overflight rights, but knows it has a phenomenal weapon at its disposal. So, of course, do Western airlines and Western governments. Yes, banning overflights would mean forfeiting the fees airlines pay—but wreaking havoc on Western business in this manner is certainly cheaper, not to mention easier, than a military attack.”
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/01/what-if-moscow-cancels-airline-overflight-rights/361103/
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