Baltic leaders: Olympic boycott possible if Russians compete
(AP)
“The prime ministers of the three Baltic countries urged the International Olympic Committee to ban Russian athletes from next year’s Paris Games because of the war in Ukraine, saying Friday a boycott was a possibility. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said athletes from her country could be put in a situation where they are competing against Russians, claiming many of them “are soldiers.”
—
“I think that our efforts should be on convincing our other friends and allies that the participation of Russian and Belarusian athletes is just wrong,” Kallas said, adding in Russia’s ally in the war. “So boycotting is the next step. I think people will understand why this is necessary.”
Baltimaade peaministrid mõistsid ROK-i plaani hukka
(ERR)
“Eesti, Läti ja Leedu peaministrid mõistsid ühispressikonverentsil hukka Rahvusvahelise Olümpiakomitee (ROK) plaani lubada Venemaa ja Valgevene sportlasi 2024. aasta Pariisi olümpiamängudele. Peaminister Kaja Kallase sõnul on ROK-i ettepanek sügavalt pettumust valmistav.”
—
"Venemaa on nüüdseks aasta aega hävitanud Ukraina riiki ja rahvast. Venemaa on tapnud sadu Ukraina sportlasi, sealhulgas olümpiavõitjaid ja maailmameistreid. Nüüd tahetakse nende sportlasi olümpiaareenile lubada ukrainlaste vere eest, kas see on õiglane?" ütles Kallas ühispressikonverentsil.”
https://sport.err.ee/1608873506/baltimaade-peaministrid-moistsid-rok-i-plaani-hukka
“USA toetab Venemaa ja Valgevene sportlaste olümpiale pääsemist ühel tingimusel.” - ERR
“Vene olümpiajuht: praegune seis on olümpialiikumise jaoks vastuvõetamatu.” - ERR
“Paris Olympics boycott would unfairly harm Estonian athletes.” - ERR
Why is the populist radical right so successful in Estonia?
(The Baltic Times)
“The Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) has undoubtedly become one of the most successful populist right-wing parties the Baltic States have seen so far. According to recent polls, support for EKRE reaches up to 25%, and the Estonian national elections will take place already in March next year.”
—
“The respective theories on the rise of populism usually bring out two kinds of explanations. First, the rising social inequality and economic insecurity breed populism – it explains why the contemporary working class and rural population have become the most faithful constituencies of far-right parties across Europe. Indeed, many people feel "left behind" and do not consider themselves as the winners in this "new brave globalizing world". Perhaps there are more people like this in Estonia than in Latvia and Lithuania? Second, the acknowledged political scientists Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart are skeptical towards the socio-economic explanations and argue that we rather are witnessing a conservative cultural backlash. …”
https://www.baltictimes.com/why_is_the_populist_radical_right_so_successful_in_estonia_/
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Friday 3. February 2023
Putin ähvardas ‘Stalingradis’ Saksamaad ja läänt otsesõnu tuumarelvadega
Kalev Stoicescu
(Postimees - subscription)
“Venemaa valmistub kindlasti uueks suureks pealetungiks Ukrainas. See toimub tõenäoliselt kahes või kolmes suunas ja mõne nädala pärast. Donbass on kindel suund. …”
Lääne habras ühtsus
Kristi Raik
(Diplomaatia)
“Vene-poliitika kujundamine liitlaste seas nõuab endiselt palju vaeva. Kui NATO riigid ei suuda sõjast õppida seda, et ka meie peame võtma endale kohustuse vajadusel Ukraina eest surra, jääb Euroopa ühtsus üürikeseks.”
—
“Saksa-Prantsuse tandemile ehk ELi ajaloolistele juhtriikidele teeb muret poliitilise tasakaalu nihkumine ida suunas.”
https://diplomaatia.ee/kristi-raik-laane-habras-uhtsus/
“Balti peaministrid lubavad jätkata pingutusi Ukraina abistamiseks.” - ERR
Eesti on Venemaaga kübersõjas
(Postimees)
“Möödunud aastal toimus Eesti küberruumis 2,672 küberintsidenti, mis mõjutasid Eesti inimesi, ettevõtteid ja teenuseid. Suurima kasvu tegid ummistusrünnakud, mida kasutatakse aina enam välispoliitilise mõjutusvahendina. Ettevõtlus- ja infotehnoloogiaminister Kristjan Järvani (Isamaa) sõnul tuletas möödunud aasta meelde, et vabadus, sõltumatus ning turvatunne pole enesestmõistetavad.”
https://www.postimees.ee/7705106/ria-peadirektor-eesti-on-venemaaga-kubersojas
Estonia commemorates the Tartu Peace Treaty
By Silver Tambur and Sten Hankewitz
(Estonian World)
“… that ended the Estonian War of Independence, established the country’s eastern border and obligated Soviet Russia to recognise Estonian independence – the fact the Soviet Union ignored only 20 years later.”
https://estonianworld.com/security/estonia-commemorates-the-tartu-peace-treaty/
82 % of Finns support joining Nato
(Yle)
“We have a really strong consensus on this. Any even higher number would already give reason to suspect that we live in North Korea. For a democratic country, that figure is at the very upper limit," Taloustutkimus Research Director, Juho Rahkonen, told the paper. Rahkonen added that he sees this as a strong message to Turkey, the United States and Nato that Finland wants to join the allliance.”
Frontline Finland and the Death of ‘A2Yellow’
(CEPA)
“The Finnish Defence Forces ended the decades-long practice of referring to the potential adversary as A2Yellow (A2Keltainen), and simply clarified that deterring and defending against Russian aggression — in the future with allies — was its primary mission."
—
“It is no accident that two prime ministers from the eastern flank, Sanna Marin of Finland and Kaja Kallas of Estonia, have emerged as straight-talking and unapologetic leaders of the democratic coalition supporting Ukraine, and delivering sobering broadsides against Russia.”
—
“The way out of the conflict is for Russia to leave Ukraine,” Finland’s leader said in October after President Biden had mused on building an off-ramp for Vladimir Putin. “There is war in Ukraine because Russia started it, not because Ukraine is defending itself,” Kallas said last month. “Russia’s goals haven’t changed, it wants to continue its war of aggression. This means we all need to do more. Give many more weapons to Ukraine, faster.”
—
“This confidently assertive tone from the two women may irk Europe’s traditional continental leaders in France and Germany but is a necessary counterbalance to the old European alliance, which has dominated much of the continent’s discussion on how to manage the Russian regime.”
https://cepa.org/article/frontline-finland-nato-and-the-death-of-a2yellow/
Poland and Estonia Want NATO to Beef Up Defense Spending
(Foreign Policy)
“… to at least 2.5 percent of GDP.”
—
“The initiative, pushed in diplomatic circles by Poland and Estonia, is a long shot and may face significant pushback from Western European powers already struggling to meet the existing NATO defense spending benchmark of 2 percent of GDP. But it reflects a mounting concern among NATO members on the alliance’s eastern flank that Europe is ill-equipped for a long-term military showdown with Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine last year.”
NATO Must Stand Up to Turkey’s Blackmail over Sweden’s accession
(Foreign Policy)
“NATO members’ efforts to ignore the issue for the sake of avoiding divisions among allies are pointless. It is time for NATO’s leadership and members to seriously engage Turkey on its disruptive and coercive behavior within the alliance, starting with holding Turkey to the agreement it made last June in Madrid with Sweden and Finland. This will require some political courage, including from key European capitals, in order to show broad agreement across NATO and present Turkey with a united front.”
—
“Turkey’s legitimate security concerns in Syria should be seriously addressed. However, this should be done through a separate track and in a way that also considers other NATO allies’ core security interests in the region.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/03/nato-must-stand-up-to-turkeys-blackmail/
Turkey could approve Finland's Nato bid ‘by March at the latest’
(Yle | Bloomberg)
“Finland may have done enough to resolve Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's security concerns, Sweden has not, and Ankara is not yet ready to ratify the Swedish application. Bloomberg’s sources said that Turkey could be prepared to give Finland's bid the green light before the Turkish parliament goes into pre-election recess in mid-March, instead of after the parliamentary and presidential ballots in May, as has previously been expected.”
—
Finnish, Swedish PMs pledge that nations will join Nato together
(Yle)
“Prime Minister Sanna Marin (SDP) met on Thursday with her Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson in Stockholm … private discussions were likely dominated by the two countries' paired Nato bids, which are stalled by Turkish opposition, particularly against Sweden.”
—
“In a joint press conference on Thursday afternoon, the two premiers stressed that they planned to move ahead calmly with the process despite recent setbacks. Both said they still hoped to join the western military alliance before its Vilnius summit on 11-12 July.”
“Tülid Türgiga ei ole rootslaste NATO-püüdlusi vähendanud.” - ERR
“US Senators say no F-16 upgrades for Turkey if it blocks Finland, Sweden from joining NATO.” - The Hill
“Finns warned to exercise greater caution while in Turkey.” - Yle
“Turkey’s Turning Point: What Will Erdogan Do to Stay in Power?” - Foreign Affairs
Thursday 2. February
Valitsus tahaks Nursipalu harjutusvälja kiiremaks arenduseks seadust muuta
Ülle Harju, ajakirjanik
(Postimees)
“Valitsus arutas eile võimalust muuta seadust, et ikkagi saaks kasutada Nursipalu harjutusvälja kiirkorras laienduseks riigikaitselist erandit, mis peaministri hinnangul pole praegu võimalik.”
“Pevkur tahaks Nursipalu kiireks laiendamiseks veel enne valimisi seadust muuta.” - ERR
“Kaja Kallas sattus Võrus rünnaku alla.” - Postimees
“Kallase hinnangul kiirkorras Nursipalu harjutusvälja laiendust teha ei saa.” - ERR
“Kaja Kallas lasi Nursipalu kiirkorras laiendamise plaanist õhu välja.” - LõunaPostimees
“Riigikaitsekomisjon hakkab Nursipalu-teemalist pöördumist arutama pärast valimisi.” - Postimees
Pentagon ei usu, et Ukraina suudaks niipea Krimmi vabastada
(ERR)
“… kinnitasid Politicole mitu Pentagoniga seotud allikat. Siiski peab USA erukindral Ben Hodges Krimmi vabastamist hädavajalikuks ning usub, et Ukraina saab sellega hakkama, kui saab vajaliku relvastuse.”
https://www.err.ee/1608871457/pentagon-ei-usu-et-ukraina-suudaks-niipea-krimmi-vabastada
Pentagon Claim: Ukraine can’t recapture Russian-occupied Crimea anytime soon
(Politico)
“… four senior Defense Department officials told House Armed Services Committee lawmakers in a classified briefing. The assessment is sure to frustrate leaders in Kyiv who consider taking the peninsula back one of their signature goals. It’s unclear what led the briefers to that assessment. But the clear indication, as relayed by three people with direct knowledge of Thursday’s briefing’s contents, was that the Pentagon doesn’t believe Ukraine has — or soon will have — the ability to force Russian troops out of the peninsula Moscow seized nearly a decade ago.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/01/ukraine-crimea-russia-pentagon-00080799
What Ukraine Needs to Liberate Crimea
(Foreign Affairs)
“Contrary to what some skeptical analysts have asserted, a Ukrainian military campaign to liberate Crimea is hardly out of the question. The first step would be to pin down Russia’s forces in the Kherson and Luhansk regions and in the northern part of Donetsk. Next, Ukraine would free the remainder of Zaporizhzhia Province and push through southern Donetsk to reach the Sea of Azov, severing Russia’s land bridge to Ukraine. Ukrainian forces would also need to destroy the Kerch Strait Bridge, which connects Russia to the Crimean Peninsula and allows Moscow to resupply its troops by road and rail. An explosion knocked out part of the bridge in October 2022, but it may be fully restored by the summer. …”
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/what-ukraine-needs-to-liberate-crimea-alexander-vindman
The New Czech President
By Edward Lucas
(CEPA)
“… is Petr Pavel, a retired general with a distinguished record of active service in ex-Yugoslavia, and at NATO, where he chaired the alliance’s military committee. Pavel stands firmly in the liberal, internationalist tradition of Havel and (fans venture to hope) Czechoslovakia’s revered pre-war president Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk.”
—
“History shows that the Czechs can play an outsize role in international politics. Under the steely, soft-spoken Pavel, those times may be returning.”
https://cepa.org/article/petr-pavel-election-sends-positive-signals-to-czech-allies/
“Petr Pavel won by a landslide: 58 % to Andrej Babis' 42 %.” - EU Observer
Ukraine says Russia planning 24. February offensive
(BBC)
“Ukraine's defence minister said Moscow had amassed thousands of troops and could "try something" to mark the anniversary of the initial invasion last year. The attack would also mark Russia's Defender of the Fatherland Day on 23 February, which celebrates the army.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64492938
“A whisper away from the Russian border, Ukrainian troops wait for another assault.” - The Guardian
Lukashenka’s pursuit of exiled Belarusians
(ECFR)
“Dictatorships want to control and subjugate everything. Initially, the Lukashenka regime succeeded in subduing the situation inside the country through the use of repression – more than 30,000 people have spent time in prison on political grounds; 1,436 prisoners of conscience remain behind bars. Now, the authorities have turned their attention to political emigrants. The reasons for this are clear. While any manifestation of dissent within the country receives severe punishment, political emigration preserves at least some form of Belarus civil society.”
https://ecfr.eu/article/a-prison-of-the-mind-lukashenkas-pursuit-of-exiled-belarusians/
“Belarus faces new sanctions by the EU and asset seizures by Ukraine.” - BNE
Wednesday 1. February
New US ambassador to Estonia arrived in Tallinn
(Estonian World Review | ERR | Estonian World)
“After more than four years of vacancy, George P. Kent has arrived in Tallinn and is preparing to take office as the next U.S. Ambassador to Estonia.”
—
“The U.S. hasn't had an ambassador present in Estonia since career diplomat James D. Melville, Jr. resigned in June 2018, citing statements made at the time by then-President Donald Trump regarding NATO and the EU.”
https://www.eesti.ca/new-us-ambassador-to-estonia-arrived-in-tallinn/article59956
—
https://news.err.ee/1608868163/incoming-us-ambassador-to-estonia-george-kent-arrives-in-tallinn
—
https://estonianworld.com/security/new-us-ambassador-arrives-in-estonia/
Estonia's new National Security Concept
(ERR)
“… which lays out the country's defense strategy for the coming years, will be presented to the Riigikogu for MPs to scrutinize next Monday (6. February). Two of the document's main features are to raise defense spending to 3 % and sets out permanent funding for civil protection.”
https://news.err.ee/1608870107/estonia-s-new-national-security-concept-proceeds-to-riigikogu
Ahead of Estonia deployment, British Army completes tank exercises in snowy Germany
(Forces Net, 27. Jan.)
“As part of the UK's contribution to Nato, Exercise Tallinn Dawn saw 800 soldiers and 250 vehicles from the Queen's Royal Hussar's Battlegroup take part in training ahead of deployment as part of Nato's Enhanced Forward Presence.”
Estonia, Poland, Latvia and Norway join opposition to Russian participation in 2024 Olympics in Paris
(Baltic Times | Inside the Games | LRT)
“Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has slammed the decision as a "politically and morally wrong", insisting that it was a time to strengthen isolation, not give in to Russia. Sport is a tool in Russia’s propaganda machine, ignoring that means siding with aggression," Kallas wrote on Twitter.”
—
"Allowing Russian and Belarusian athletes to participate in international competitions, including the Olympics, is not only hypocritical and spineless, it is a direct mockery of all the tens of thousands of Ukrainians who have had to lose their lives in the worst crime against humanity that Europe has experienced since the end of World War II.”
—
—
https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1133118/european-nations-opposing-russia-return
The Race to Find NATO’s Next Chief
(Politico)
“Some see candidates from Eastern Europe as particularly suitable. Already before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there was momentum for the alliance to select a secretary-general from the east. Some officials in the region argue that the war has since strengthened the case for someone from a country like Estonia or Lithuania.”
—
“For years, the countries of the eastern flank have been warning about Russia’s threat,” said an official from the Baltics. The region’s countries, the Baltic official said, were front-runners in boosting military spending and pushing the alliance to improve its defenses.”
—
“It would be very logical and sobering,” the official continued, “to have someone who is experienced in dealing with Russia and who understands Russia’s logic and mentality, to lead the North Atlantic Alliance.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/jens-stoltenberg-new-nato-secretary-general-same-old-europe-ukraine/
The filtration camp: a new level of incarceration and terror
(Riddle)
“The large-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces in February 2022 has brought so called ‘filtration camps’ into public scrutiny. The term has been previously used in Russia’s two wars in Chechenia, but it is of Stalinist vintage. Considered distinct from the Gulag camps, the filtration camps nonetheless resembled them, and were typically placed near industrial centers for which the internees could provide free labor while their cases were being processed. In contrast to the Gulag, those filtration camps were dismantled in 1946.”
—
“There is now a series of these camps in areas of Ukraine that are occupied and illegally annexed by Russia. … According to Reuters, as of late September 2022, between 900,000 and 1.6 million Ukrainians had been forcefully deported to Russia. This figure includes a large number of children. Russia has its own numbers, admitting that 400 Ukrainian children have been adopted by Russian families — a ridiculously low figure. The campaign is intended to demonstrate the defenselessness and vulnerability of Ukrainians as a group, and even to deny their nationality. The practice is widespread and systematic. The vast majority of people who have found themselves in the occupied territories, or in territories through which Russian troops have passed, have been victims of filtration.”
https://ridl.io/the-filtration-camp-a-new-level-of-incarceration-and-terror/
While soldiers fight, Ukrainians face another threat: hunger
(Christian Science Monitor)
“Food access has become a battlefront in Ukraine’s war. Almost a year ago, Russia began a blockade of the Black Sea ports that handled 70% of Ukraine’s prewar imports and exports, putting a vice on the economy and raising the price of grain worldwide. Inside the country, especially near the front lines, food insecurity can be an almost daily threat. Were access to dip even slightly, a city like Kherson could face a humanitarian crisis. …”
- Putin’s War -
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment - February 2.
(ISW)
“A Ukrainian intelligence official stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to capture Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023 …”
—
"Russian authorities blocked internet cell service in occupied Luhansk Oblast likely as part of an effort to intensify operational security to conceal new Russian force deployments …”
-
“ISW has not observed any evidence that Russian forces have restored sufficient combat power to defeat Ukraine’s forces in eastern Ukraine and capture over 11,300 square kilometers of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast (over 42 % of Donetsk Oblast’s total area) before March as Putin reportedly ordered …"
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-2-2023
Putin compares Ukraine to Stalingrad
(Deutsche Welle)
“Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to rally Russians around the war in Ukraine on the occasion of Nazi Germany's defeat in Stalingrad 80 years ago , at a ceremony to mark the anniversary of the Soviet victory.”
—
"We are again being threatened by German Leopard tanks!" Putin said, in reference to Germany's recent decision to supply advanced Leopard battle tanks to Kyiv. … Russian officials have gone to lengths to draw comparisons between fighting Nazis in World War Two and Ukraine.”
—
“But Ukraine has rejected these comparisons, as the country suffered devastating consequences including a famine induced by Stalin, known as the Holodomor, and a genocide of its Jewish population carried out by Nazi forces, in addition to mass civilian casualties.”
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-putin-compares-ukraine-to-stalingrad-battle/a-64587805
“Putin Sends Warning to West on 80th Anniversary of Battle of Stalingrad." - The Moscow Times
“This Is Not 1943: How Putin twists the history of World War II.” - The Atlantic
Putin’s Russia and the Hall of Mirrors
(CEPA)
“One of Russia’s most serious and least-discussed problems is that under the over-mighty hand of Vladimir Putin, the state’s antennae for receiving and analyzing information has been so badly degraded that it’s blinded itself to events. This degradation began long before 2014 and is partially responsible for Putin’s initial decision to annex Crimea and start a war in Ukrainian Donbas. It is a deeply dangerous facet of Russian policymaking.”
—
“The Kremlin relies on networks of marginal, criminal, and simply inadequate figures to promote its influence abroad and to receive information …”
https://cepa.org/article/putins-russia-and-the-hall-of-mirrors/
Russia’s Return to Gulag Economics
(CEPA)
“According to the Russian government, the shortage of workers in the military-industrial complex will soon reach 400,000 people, including 120,000 professionals with higher education. Given that the industry employs two million workers and engineers, this is a very significant number. To begin with, factories tried to make up for shortages by poaching personnel from private industry — after mobilization, military industries could offer protection against the call-up — and from the retired. The leading manufacturer of armored personnel carriers, the Kurgan factory, even promised to provide housing and guarantee the employment of family members. But it didn’t solve the problem …”
https://cepa.org/article/russias-return-to-gulag-economics/
Don’t Fear Putin’s Demise
By Garry Kasparov and Mikhail Khodorkovsky
(Foreign Affairs)
“Pro-democracy Russians who reject the totalitarian Putin regime—a group to which the authors belong—are doing what they can to help Ukraine liberate all occupied territories and restore its territorial integrity in accordance with the internationally recognized borders of 1991. We are also planning for the day after Putin. The Russian Action Committee, a coalition of opposition groups in exile that we co-founded in May 2022, aims to ensure that Ukraine is compensated for the damage caused by Putin’s aggression, that all war criminals are held accountable, and that Russia is transformed from a rogue dictatorship into a parliamentary federal republic. The looming end of Putin’s reign need not be feared, in other words; it should be welcomed with open arms.”
https://reader.foreignaffairs.com/2023/01/20/dont-fear-putins-demise/content.html
Is there hope for Russia after Putin?
By Mark Galeotti
(Engelsberg Ideas)
“Quite how and when Vladimir Putin will lose power is unclear, but the inevitable event will offer Russia another opportunity to break with its Soviet past.”
https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/is-there-hope-for-russia-after-putin/
The story of General Gerasimov
(Novaya Gazeta Europe)
“Born into a working-class family, Gerasimov dreamed of the army since childhood. After graduating from military school with a gold medal, he entered the Kazan Higher Tank Command School, and then the Military Academy of Armoured Forces.”
—
“The future army general began his ascent to the top of the army hierarchy as a platoon commander. This was followed by appointments as a company commander, battalion chief of staff, and then as the commander of a motorised rifle division in the Baltic Military District. Gerasimov supervised the division’s move to the Moscow Military District in August 1994.”
—
[Note: The Baltic Military District was disbanded after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 … which ended its existence after withdrawal of all Russian troops from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on 1 September 1994.]
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/01/27/the-story-of-general-gerasimov-en
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