European officials scramble to douse Kaliningrad / Lithuania tensions
(Politico Europe, 23. June)
“The European Commission worked overnight on plans to defuse the growing Kaliningrad crisis amid fears it could escalate quickly, according to several EU officials and diplomats. Tensions are running high over freight transport from the Russian mainland to its exclave which is sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland — with Moscow threatening “practical” retaliatory action if the EU doesn’t unblock metal goods stuck in transit. Senior EU diplomats on Wednesday warned the situation was serious and could rapidly get worse.”
—
“Officials and diplomats told POLITICO’s Brussels Playbook the crisis is an unintended consequence of the EU’s fourth sanctions package, under which the bloc banned imports from Russia of steel and ferrous materials. The train line supplying goods from Russia to Kaliningrad passes through Lithuania, an EU country, so customs agents have from Saturday been stopping freight trains for checks. Lithuania and the European Commission have insisted that this was not Vilnius’ unilateral decision, but that Lithuania was acting based on guidance issued by Brussels …”
“Kaliningrad standoff could reveal if Russia wants to escalate.” - AlJazeera
“Could the Kaliningrad Crisis Lead to War?” - Foreign Policy, 24. June
“Western Europe begins demonizing Lithuania.” - LRT, 24. June
“Russia blames U.S. for Kaliningrad transit restrictions.” - Reuters, 24. June
“Russia threatens retaliation as Lithuania bans some goods transit to Kaliningrad.” - The Guardian, 20. June
“Lithuania: We're ready if Russia cuts us out of common power grid over Kaliningrad disruptions.” - Reuters, 22. June
“Moscow fumes over Lithuania rail ban to Russian region.” - Reuters, 22. June
“Moscow: ‘Serious Consequences’ for Lithuania.” - Moscow Times, 20. June
“Russia Protests Transit Block To Kaliningrad, Threatens Retaliation Against Lithuania.” - RFERL, 21. June
“Row escalates over Vilnius’s refusal to allow steel and iron ore to cross Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.” - The Guardian, 21. June
“Moscow Threatens to Retaliate for Lithuania’s ‘Blockade of Kaliningrad’.” - Paul Goble, 21. June
“Transfer of materials on the EU sanctions list could continue via cargo ships from Saint Petersburg.” - National Interest, 21. June
“What is the strategic importance of Kaliningrad?” - The Times, 21. June
Friday 24. June
NATO praeguste plaanide järgi pühitaks Eesti riik ja kultuur kaardilt - Kallas
(Postimees)
“Peaminister Kaja Kallas sõnas Financial Timesile, et praegused NATO kaitseplaanid tähendavad seda, et kui Venemaa peaks Eestit ründama, oleksid kaardilt pühitud nii Eesti kui ka meie kultuur. Plaanid näevad ette, et NATO ei oleks suuteline Eestit esimesest sõjapäevast kaitsma.”
“Estonia’s PM says country will be ‘wiped from map’ under existing Nato plans.” - Financial Times
“Estonia’s Kallas Warns of Existential Russian Threat to Baltics.” - Bloomberg
“Former Russian prime minister revealed what he thinks the Kremlin’s next move will be if Ukraine falls - The Baltic States.” - The Daily Beast
“NATO Defense Leaders Set Stage for Alliance Decisions at Madrid Summit.” - US Department of Defense
Poola ja Baltimaad soovivad, et NATO tugevdaks ‘Suwalki’ koridori kaitset
(ERR)
“… ütles reedel Poola peaminister Mateusz Morawiecki.”
https://www.err.ee/1608639085/poola-ja-baltimaad-soovivad-et-nato-tugevdaks-suwalki-koridori-kaitset
The Suwałki Gap:
The Most Dangerous Place On Earth
(Politico Europe)
“Nestled on Lithuania’s southeastern border, Druskininkai opens onto a narrow notch of strategic territory known as the Suwałki Gap. Stretching about 100 kilometers along the Lithuanian-Polish frontier, between Belarus in the east and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to the west, Western military planners warn the area would likely be one of the Russian president’s first targets were he ever to choose to escalate the war in Ukraine into a kinetic confrontation with NATO.”
—
“Former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves said he came up with the name “Suwałki Gap” minutes before a meeting with then-German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen in 2015 in an effort to raise alarm about the hole in Western defenses. The worry is that in a conflict with the West, Russia could sweep into the corridor simultaneously from the east and the west, severing the European Union’s Baltic countries from their allies to the south. “It’s a huge vulnerability because an invasion would cut off Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia from the rest of NATO,” said Ilves.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/suwalki-gap-russia-war-nato-lithuania-poland-border/
The EU should learn from the Baltic states in its dealings with Russia
(London School of Economics, 13. June)
“European leaders are divided over whether Ukraine should make territorial concessions to Russia to secure a peace deal. Drawing on the history of the Baltic states, Inese Zepa argues that ceding territory would enable future conflict and atrocities to take place in Ukraine and beyond.”
NATO needs ‘visible’ counter to Russia threat via Belarus, Lithuania warns
(Politico Europe)
“Speaking ahead of the NATO summit (29. June), Nausėda told POLITICO that “very huge fundamental changes” in neighboring Belarus makes Lithuania more vulnerable to a quick Russian attack — and necessitate a shift in the region’s security arrangements. The Lithuanian leader said he would describe today’s Belarus as an “additional province” of Moscow, adding that the “Russian army can do what they want to move the forces, to deploy the equipment.”
—
“In the past, Nausėda said, NATO’s strategy relied on reinforcements. Relatively small forces were stationed on the alliance’s eastern edge, with allies expected to come to the region’s aid in case of attack. But the new reality, according to the Lithuanian leader, “leaves us no time for reaction,” because Russian troops “might be easily deployed very near to our border” and “there will be no time for reinforcement.”
Interview: Viljar Lubi, Estonian ambassador to the United Kingdom
(Postimees)
Question: “Does Estonia have a plan B for the situation if we are again occupied?”
Answer: “There is always a Plan B. .. This plan B must also always exist but we need not talk about it because we hope it never has to be implemented. .…“
—
Question: Have you talked about the war with any of your Russian colleagues?”
Answer: I have not! … I have not seen my Russian colleague at any event I have attended, and when viewing his statements or the Russian embassy’s statements on Twitter, for example, it is apparent that they repeat their narrative. There seems to be no point in talking to him.”
https://news.postimees.ee/7549560/ambassador-lubi-the-british-nuclear-deterrence-reaches-estonia
Allies Celebrated Estonian Victory Day
(US Army)
“Thousands of people crowded the streets of Kuressaare, watching with excitement as soldiers marched through their hometown for the Victory Day parade here, June 23, 2022. … The location of the parade alternates each year between the 15 Estonian counties. This year was Saaremaa Island's turn.”
https://www.army.mil/article/257890/allies_celebrate_estonian_victory_day
Thursday 23. June
President Alar Karis andis tänavu välja 148 teenetemärki
(Estonian World Review)
“President Alar Karis andis oma esimesel ametiaastal Iseseisvuspäeva tähistamiseks välja 148 teenetemärki. Väliseestlastest pälvis teenetemärgi tunnustuse aastakümned Stockholmi Eesti Maja püsimise eest seisnud Mart Nurk, New Yorgi Haridusseltsi juhatuse kauaaegne liige Peeter Teedla, Eesti Üliõpilaste Toetusfondi (USA) president Mari-Anne Teedla, VEMU ehk Väliseesti Muuseumi rajamise üks eestvedajaid ja muuseumi peaarhivaar Piret Noorhani ning eestluse hoidja Uus-Meremaal ja sealne kauane aukonsul Tõnu Loorpärg.
https://www.eesti.ca/president-alar-karis-andis-tanavu-valja-148-teenetemarki/article59366
Palju õnne, Peeter ja Mari!
Estonian PM: Russia not weary of war
(AP)
“The West should not underestimate Russia’s military capabilities in Ukraine, Estonia’s leader told AP, saying that as the war enters its fifth month, Moscow’s forces are in it for the long haul. … “I’ve heard talks that, you know, there is no threat anymore because they have exhausted themselves. No, they haven’t … They have plenty of troops still who can come (to fight) — They are not counting the lives that they are losing. They are not counting the artillery that they are losing there. So I don’t think that we should underestimate them in the longer term to still keep this up,” Kallas said.”
US ‘Brown Berets’ visited Estonia for the first time during Siil
(Postimees)
“The Brown Berets or officially the 6th Special Operations Squadron is a US Air Force elite unit established in 1994. Their business is to teach allies and partners in developing efficient cooperation between the local special units, air force and conventional ground forces. … They practiced in Estonia with PZL M28 Skytruck transport aircraft, locally referred to as simply M28. According to the commander of the Brown Berets unit, which visited Estonia, the M28s were especially suitable for them, because they specialize in this type of aircraft. “The M28 is a fantastic platform and the Estonian version is actually better than the ones we use back in the USA,” he said. “The Estonian version is multi-purpose, our aircraft are very simple.”
—
“The Estonians are ready for any mission NATO might require. They are ready for action,” the American commended. “It is a refreshing experience because the motto of my unit is “The Most Committed Wins” and we have seen here that Estonia is committed to helping NATO just like we are.”
https://news.postimees.ee/7546493/exercise-overshadowed-visit-of-us-brown-berets
More info: https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104605/combat-aviation-advisor/
“France conducted a paratroop airdrop in Estonia.” - NATO
Beliefs and rituals of Jaanipäev
(Estonian World)
“Jaanipäev was celebrated long before the arrival of Christianity in Estonia, although the day was given its name by the crusaders. The arrival of Christianity, however, did not end the pagan beliefs and fertility rituals surrounding this holiday.”
https://estonianworld.com/life/it-is-this-time-of-the-year-again-jaanipaev/
—
Helsinki Airport streamlines operations into one terminal
(Yle)
“As of Tuesday, check-in points, security checks, and baggage claims at Helsinki Airport have been centralised into a single terminal. State-owned airport operations firm Finavia said terminals 1 and 2, as well as the connecting walkway, have been decommissioned. The old departure and arrival halls have been closed. The single terminal will make getting around the airport and accessing services easier.”
https://yle.fi/news/3-12506026
Microsoft reveals extent of attacks by Russian hackers on Ukraine allies. Estonia is the striking exception
(Sky News)
“Russian hackers have launched cyber attacks on targets in 42 countries allied with Ukraine since Vladimir Putin's war began, Microsoft says. … Poland, the main conduit for military assistance flowing to Ukraine, was second, while in the past two months Denmark, Norway, Finland, Sweden, and Turkey have seen increased targeting.”
—
“A striking exception was Estonia, where Microsoft said it had detected no Russian cyber intrusions since Mr Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February.
The company credited Estonia's adoption of cloud computing, where it is easier to detect intruders.”
Microsoft detected no Russian cyber intrusions into Estonia since 24. Feb.
(Microsoft report - Page 3)
“This focus on the United States has been followed closely by activity targeting NATO members that geographically are the closest to Ukraine. At the top of this list is Poland, with 8 % of intrusions, where the delivery of a majority of military and humanitarian aid is coordinated. The Baltic countries of Latvia and Lithuania represent a combined 14 % of total intrusions outside Ukraine.”
—
“In contrast, in Estonia, the third Baltic border country, where the country has adopted cloud services, we’ve detected no Russian cyber intrusions since the onset of the Ukraine war. Russian cyber activities have also actively targeted Denmark, Norway, Finland, and Sweden. These collectively represent nearly 16 % of all the observed Russian attacks globally.”
https://query.prod.cms.rt.microsoft.com/cms/api/am/binary/RE50KOK
Or:
Wednesday 22. June
Venemaa simuleerib raketirünnakuid Eesti vastu
(Postimees)
“Venelased simuleerivad praegu raketirünnakuid Eesti territooriumi vastu, rääkis kaitseministeeriumi kantsler Kusti Salm Soome ajalehele Iltalehti. NATO allikate sõnul on Venemaa viimastel päevadel sooritanud simuleeritud raketirünnakuid Eesti ja teiste Balti riikide vastu. Salm kinnitas seda Iltalehtile: ‘Praegu on käimas õppused, kus venelased simuleerivad raketirünnakuid Eesti territooriumile.’ Lisaks simuleeritud raketirünnakutele on relvastatud Vene helikopterid Baltikumis piiririkkumisi toime pannud.”
https://maailm.postimees.ee/7550045/venemaa-simuleerib-raketirunnakuid-eesti-vastu
“Russia is conducting simulated missile attacks against Estonia.” - Estonian World
“NATO Member Estonia Says It’s Targeted by Russian Missile Simulations.” - Bloomberg
“Not the first time Russia has simulated attacks on NATO countries.” - ERR
NATO Member Estonia: Russian Helicopter Intruded Into Its Airspace
(The Drive)
“An Mi-8 Hip helicopter belonging to the Russian Border Guard intruded into its airspace for about two minutes on Saturday night. The helicopter flew above the Koidula region of south-eastern Estonia, along the border with Russia, Estonia’s Ministry of Defense said in a statement issued on Tuesday …”
—
“The latest incidents took place less than a week before a scheduled NATO summit in Madrid. By intruding into neighboring airspace, the Russians “are trying to create some sort of context ahead of the summit,” Kusti Salm, permanent secretary at Estonia's MoD, told journalists.”
“The Mil Mi-8 (Hip) helicopter was introduced into the Soviet Air Force service sometime in 1967.” - Military Factory database
Estonia protests to Russia over helicopter airspace violation
(Reuters | Al Jazeera | Washington Post)
“Estonia’s military said in a statement that the Russian MI-8 helicopter entered the country’s airspace in southeastern Estonia in the Koidula area – not far from the Russian city of Pskov – without permission on Saturday evening. The helicopter was in Estonia’s airspace for almost two minutes, Estonia’s military said, adding that the helicopter had not presented a flight plan, had its transponder switched off, and failed to maintain radio contact with Estonian Air Navigation Services.”
—
—
Finns are ready to fight any Russian attack, says armed forces chief
(Reuters | The Guardian)
“Finland has prepared for decades for a Russian attack and would put up stiff resistance should one occur, its armed forces chief has said. The Nordic country has built up a substantial arsenal. But aside from the military hardware, Gen Timo Kivinen said, a crucial factor is that Finns would be motivated to fight.”
—
“The most important line of defence is between one’s ears, as the war in Ukraine proves at the moment,” Kivinen said in an interview.”
—
“Top general: Finland has spent decades preparing for a war like Ukraine’s.” - Yle
“US Army participates in Finland's exercise Arrow 22.” - US Army
Lithuania to purchase 197 acoustic warning sirens
(Delfi)
“Sirens would be installed within the 100 km potential impact zone of the Belarusian nuclear power plant in Astravyets … The implementation of the project would allow warning to more than 800,000 residents about potential threats using sirens in 17 Lithuanian municipalities …”
Equipment to decouple from Russian electricity system reaches Estonia
(Baltic Times)
“The arrival of the equipment provides further assurance that the first of the three synchronous compensator stations to be built in Estonia will be completed on schedule, despite the difficult global market situation, transmission system operator Elering said in a press release.”
—
"Synchronous compensator stations are critical for decoupling from the Russian synchronization grid and connecting to the continental European frequency area.”
Russia declares gas war on EU
(Politico Europe)
“Putin is playing hardball with the European Union — cutting off gas deliveries to some of Russia's best customers in a howl of rage at the sanctions imposed after invading Ukraine. … an analyst with the Bruegel think tank calls Russia's policies "energy blackmail."
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-declares-gas-war-on-eu/
“Ukraine Wants a Lend-Lease Plan for Energy to Escape Russian Chokehold.” - Foreign Policy
“Europe may need to return to coal as Russia reduces gas flows.” - CBC
“What’s next after Russia reduced gas to Europe?” - AP
Putin lajatas Lääne pihta, kõneles sanktsioonide tagasilöögist
(Postimees and WSJ)
“Idee oli ilmne: jõuliselt lömastada Vene majandus,’ ütles Venemaa president. ‘See ei õnnestunud.’ Oma võitluslikus kõnes kritiseeris Venemaa president Vladimir Putin läänt võimetuse pärast tunnustada uute võimublokkide tõusu pärast külma sõja lõppu. Ta hoiatas, et Venemaale kehtestatud sanktsioonid on andnud tagasilöögi ning vallandanud Euroopas süveneva majanduskriisi.”
Interview: Ukraine’s first lady Olena Zelenska
(The Guardian)
“On the first day of the war I had this weird smile on my face all day, because I was trying not to show the children panic.”
“Ukraine's first lady: “Giving up land is like conceding a freedom.” - ABC News
“Kyiv’s EU envoy says Ukraine candidate status would send clear signal to Russia.” - The Guardian
__________
Putin’s War
__________
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: 23. June 2022
(ISW)
“Ongoing Belarusian mobilization exercises will continue in Gomel Oblast until 1. July but are unlikely to be in preparation for direct Belarusian involvement in the war in Ukraine. … Russian forces have made substantial gains in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area. … Reinforced Russian air-defense systems in eastern Ukraine are increasingly limiting the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones. … Members of the Russian military community continue to comment on the shortcomings of Russian force generation capabilities”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23
“Ukraine orders troops to retreat from Severodonetsk.” - The Times, UK
Russia Pulls Out All the Stops to Find Fresh Troops due to High Casualties
(Spiegel)
“Putin wants to avoid a general mobilization, so the military is relying on other methods. … And new soldiers for the war effort aren’t just being recruited from Nizhny Novgorod in central Russia. Across the country, from Kaliningrad in the west to the eastern region of Amur, men of fighting age are being summoned. At least 2 million Russians are part of the country’s reserve force, though the precise number is classified.”
“Russian Troops in Ukraine Face ‘Extraordinary’ Casualty Rates: U.K. Intelligence.” - US News
Putin’s Ukraine template is simple: flatten cities, install satraps, rule by fear
(The Atlantic)
“The constant boom of artillery in the near distance is the defining feature of life in the Donbas today. As Russia presses its offensive to take the eastern part of Ukraine, the signs of conflict are everywhere: buildings smashed to ruins by cruise missiles, Ukrainian tanks and howitzers on the highway headed east. The Donbas region, encompassed by a front stretching hundreds of miles and currently the scene of the most extensive fighting in Europe since World War II, is in total war mode. The Russian military machine, which has overwhelming superiority in artillery, is grinding forward slowly …”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-putin-chechnya/661321/
Hundreds of Photos of Weapons Reveals Russia’s Brutal War Strategy
(New York Times)
“Of the weapons identified by The Times, more than 210 were types that have been widely banned under international treaties. All but a handful were cluster munitions, including their submunitions, which can pose a grave risk to civilians for decades after war has ended. More than 330 other weapons appeared to have been used on or near civilian structures.”
Why Russia Keeps Turning to Mass Firepower
(Foreign Policy)
“There is an intangible dimension to the Russian feeling for their guns. According to legend, following the catastrophic loss at Narva in 1700 to the Swedish Empire, Peter the Great ordered every church in the country to give some of its bells to make new cannons to replace the artillery, which had all been lost to the Swedes. Ever since, Russian cannons have been considered holy, and Russian artillery has received special status. This is why, according to the story, 18th-century Russian cannon crews defended their pieces to the death. Cannons and bells were in fact made in the same way, often by the same factories; one can easily be melted down and recast into the other. A well-cast bronze or brass cannon hums when fired, like a tuning fork.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/19/why-russia-keeps-turning-to-mass-firepower/
And Finally:
‘Most Dangerous Result’ of Putin’s War is What It has Told the World about Value of Having Nuclear Weapons
By Paul Goble
“… if your country has nuclear weapons, it can do what it likes regardless of international law.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/06/most-dangerous-result-of-putins-war-is.html
What If Russia Uses Nukes In Ukraine?
A look at the grim scenarios - and the U.S. playbook for each
(The Atlantic)
“The 12th main directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense operates a dozen central storage facilities for nuclear weapons. Known as “Object S” sites and scattered across the Russian Federation, they contain thousands of nuclear warheads and hydrogen bombs with a wide variety of explosive yields. For the past three months, President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials have been ominously threatening to use nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine. According to Pavel Podvig, the director of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project and a former research fellow at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, now based in Geneva, the long-range ballistic missiles deployed on land and on submarines are Russia’s only nuclear weapons available for immediate use. If Putin decides to attack Ukraine with shorter-range, “tactical” nuclear weapons, they will have to be removed from an Object S site—such as Belgorod-22, just 25 miles from the Ukrainian border—and transported to military bases. It will take hours for the weapons to be made combat-ready, for warheads to be mated with cruise missiles or ballistic missiles, for hydrogen bombs to be loaded on planes. The United States will most likely observe the movement of these weapons in real time: by means of satellite surveillance, cameras hidden beside the road, local agents with binoculars. And that will raise a question of existential importance: What should the United States do?”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/
“Might Vladimir Putin use a nuclear weapon?” - CBC
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