NATO forces put tanks through their paces at Tapa
By Nic Robertson
(CNN)
“The annual NATO winter military exercise is intended to gel the multinational soldiers – this year comprising Estonian, French, British, Danish and US troops – into a singular fighting force able to take enemy territory even in the bone-chilling cold. Amid the trees, the message for Russian President Vladimir Putin is clear: NATO’s high-tech forces are ready for action. There are lessons here for the Ukrainians, too, whose training on Leopard 2 tanks began Monday in Germany.”
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“Estonia’s Defense Minster, Hanno Pevkur, watching the NATO exercise, worries that a Russian new push is imminent, in the “coming months or weeks.”
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/07/europe/estonia-nato-tank-exercises-intl-cmd/index.html
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Russian threat to Baltic security rising
(Reuters, 8. Feb)
“Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service said it believed Russia still had the strength to exert "credible military pressure" on the Baltic region, where the security risk has risen for the medium and long-term. … "A military attack against Estonia is unlikely in 2023" due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but "in the mid-to-long term, Russia's belligerence and foreign policy ambitions have significantly increased the security risks for Estonia.”
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“Russia's military presence near the Baltic states' borders could be rebuilt in four years, the intelligence service said. Russia's plan to conduct large-scale military exercises at its western borders two years earlier than scheduled could further strain the security situation in the Baltic region this year, it said.”
“Russia’s Money for Ukraine War Won’t Run Out Anytime Soon, Economists Say.” - Russia Matters
“Russia Will Fail to 'Break' Ukraine, Estonia's Spy Chief Says.” - Bloomberg
Eesti Rahvusvahelises Julgeolekukeskkonnas 2023
(Valisluureamet)
“Hoolimata tagasilöökidest ja riskidest ei ole Vladimir Putini eesmärk Ukrainas 2023. aasta alguseks muutunud. Esialgu sõjamasinale kütust veel jagub – kahurilihast, nõukogudeaegsest relvastusest ja propagandast mürgitatud imperialismist Venemaal niipea puudust ei tule. Väga tõenäoliselt ei too see siiski kaasa uut kvaliteeti Venemaa sõjapidamise võimes. Putin mängib ajale, uskudes, et Ukraina ja Lääs väsivad enne kui Venemaa. Putin arvab, et suudab Ukraina läbirääkimistelaua taha „pommitada“.”
—
“Venemaa seesmiselt on muutunud Nõukogude Liit 2.0-ks, otsides inspiratsiooni läbisegi stalinistlikust repressiivsusest, hruštšovilikust loosunglikkusest ja brežnevlikust stagnatsioonist. Paradoksaalsel moel on Putini režiim praegusel Venemaal üheaegselt tugevaim ja hapraim. Uut Gorbatšovi, rääkimata Jeltsinist, horisondil siiski ei paista. Demokraatlikul maailmal ei tasu luua illusioone, et Putini-järgne Venemaa võtaks niipea omaks demokraatlikud väärtused.”
https://raport.valisluureamet.ee/2023/et/
Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service’s public report for 2023
(Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service)
“Despite setbacks and risks, Vladimir Putin’s goal in Ukraine has not changed by early 2023. For now, there is still enough fuel to keep the war machine going – Russia will not run out of cannon fodder, Soviet-era armaments or propaganda-induced imperialism any time soon. However, a quality leap in Russia’s war-fighting capability is very unlikely. Putin is playing for time, believing that Ukraine and the West will wear out before Russia. Putin thinks he can “bomb” Ukraine to the negotiating table.”
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“Internally, Russia has become Soviet Union 2.0, drawing inspiration from Stalinist repression, Khrushchevian sloganeering and Brezhnevian stagnation. Paradoxically, in Russia today, Putin’s regime is simultaneously the strongest and the weakest it has ever been. But there seems to be no new Gorbachev, not to mention Yeltsin, on the horizon. The democratic world should not harbour illusions that post-Putin Russia will embrace democratic values any time soon.”
https://raport.valisluureamet.ee/2023/en/
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Friday 10. February 2023
2023 Elections in Eesti: Reform Party still lies in first place
(ERR)
“… according to market research firm Kantar Emor, with just over three weeks to go until election day to the Riigikogu. The Kantar Emor survey, commissioned by ERR for the third consecutive week, also found that, compared with the previous week's results, the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) increased its lead over the Center Party, due to the latter losing support, while Isamaa in turn overtook the Social Democrats (SDE).”
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“Kantar Emor also calculated the distribution of the political parties' Riigkogu mandates. This would lead to six parties entering the XV Riigikogu, one more than the five parties sitting at the XIV Riigikogu since the 2019 election.”
“Peaministriuuring: nädalaga kasvas toetus Kallasele ja Helmele.” - ERR
“Survey: Kaja Kallas most popular choice for next prime minister.” - ERR
“FAQ: A brief overview of Estonia's 5. March elections.” - ERR
“Debate: Russian citizens' right to vote in Estonia.” - ERR
Russia launches 'massive' drone and missile attack in Ukraine
(Euronews | RFERL | Guardian | CBC)
“Russian forces struck critical infrastructure in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, and launched multiple strikes on energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia early Friday as Moscow stepped up its attacks in Ukraine’s south and east and air raid sirens went off across much of the country.”
https://www.euronews.com/2023/02/10/ukraine-war-russia-launches-massive-drone-and-missile-attack
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https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-zaporizhzhya-kharkiv/32264908.html
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https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-invasion-day-352-1.6743772
"Sõda võib kesta 15 aastat. Mis on Eesti tegevuskava?” - Postimees
“Kolonel Margo Grosberg: ilm soosib Ukraina kaitsetegvust.” - ERR
Kyiv intercepted plan for the destruction of Moldova by Russian intelligence
(RFERL)
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the document shows who, when, and how Russia planned "to break the democracy of Moldova and establish control over Moldova,” … The country, wedged between Ukraine and Romania, applied to join the European Union just after Russia invaded Ukraine nearly one year ago. Russia maintains troops in Moldova's breakaway region of Transdniester.”
https://www.rferl.org/a/moldova-russia-plan-destabilize-/32264249.html
“Moldova peaminister astus tagasi.” - Postimees
“Moldova's prime minister resigns.” - Euronews
“Russia again fires missiles over Moldova in latest strikes.” - BBC
“Russia conducting 'hybrid war' in Moldova with protests and cyber attacks.” - Euronews
“Romania says Russian missile flew over Moldova just outside NATO airspace.” - Washington Post
Saksamaale saabus esimene laevatäis USA Bradley lahingumasinaid
(ERR)
“… mis toimetatakse sealt kiiremas korras edasi Ukrainasse.
Bradley lahingumasinad peaks paari päevaga jõudma Ukrainasse kohale ning õige pea juba ka lahinguväljale. Laevalt veeres Saksamaa sadamakaile üle 60 Bradley, peale selle veel soomukeid, õhutõrjeseadmeid ja tavalisi sõjaväeautosid.”
https://www.err.ee/1608881462/saksamaale-joudsid-esimesed-ukrainale-antavad-usa-lahingumasinad
Estonia’s Robin Hood plan: Take from Russia to give to Ukraine
(Politico Europe - 7. Feb)
“In what would be an unprecedented step, Tallinn wants to use frozen assets to rebuild the war-torn country.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/estonia-robin-hood-bill-russia-give-ukraine-sanctions/
Thursday 9. February
Arvamus: Venemaa on muutumas hiiglaslikuks Põhja-Koreaks
(Postimees)
“Lisaks Ukraina otsesele abistamisele on Eesti ja teiste Venemaa naaberriikide ülesanne aidata läänemaailmal mõista, et tegelik julgeolekuolukord Euroopas on fundamentaalselt muutunud ning külma sõja järgse ajastu optimism, nii palju kui seda veel alles oli, on osutunud alusetuks. …”
https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7709094/mart-kuldkepp-venemaa-on-muutumas-hiiglaslikuks-pohja-koreaks
Cyber attacks against Estonian state institutions and companies continue
(Postimees)
“The Estonian Information System Authority (RIA) registered a total of 188 cyber incidents that affected the work of companies, agencies and services or caused harm to people. … this year's first major wave of attacks in Estonia took place on Jan. 15.”
Berliini survestanud riigid ei suuda nüüd tanke saata Ukrainasse
(ERR / WSJ)
“Berliin teeb nüüd Euroopas lobitööd, et riigid saadaksid tankid Ukrainasse ning et nad teeksid seda võimalikult kiiresti. Lahingukorras tanke on aga Euroopas vähe alles …”
https://www.err.ee/1608879563/wsj-berliini-survestanud-riigid-ei-suuda-nuud-tanke-saata-ukrainasse
“Spacex ei luba Ukraina sõjaväel kasutada Starlinki droonide juhtimiseks.” - ERR
Tanks Aren’t Arriving in Ukraine Despite Promises From European Allies
(Wall Street Journal - 9. Feb)
“For months, Germany withstood international pressure to allow neighbors to supply Ukraine with German-made tanks. Yet since Berlin finally yielded last month, only one country in Europe has agreed to dispatch a sizeable contingent.”
“Berlin OKs German arms-maker Rheinmetall’s plans to sell dozens of the older Leopards to Kyiv.” - Politico Europe
“Estonian PM Kaja Kallas: EU should tell defense industry to produce more for Ukraine.” - ERR
“What Western Tanks Mean for Ukraine.” - Spiegel
Finland should voice readiness to split up Finnish and Swedish Nato bids
(Helsinki Times)
“The remarks by Mika Aaltola, the director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, about splitting up the Finnish and Swedish bids to join Nato will be addressed in the next meeting of the advisory council responsible for monitoring the operations of the institute.”
Zelenskyy optimistic Ukraine will get European fighter jets
(Deutsche Welle)
“The Ukrainian president's main messages in London, Paris and Brussels were pleas for long-range missiles and fighter jets to beef up his armed forces, and (to the EU) the necessity of rapid entry into the bloc. In London on Wednesday, he made progress, with British promises to train Ukrainian pilots to fly NATO-standard aircraft. Speaking in Brussels on Thursday, Zelenskyy also said there had been movement towards a solution on the question of long-range missiles.”
https://www.dw.com/en/zelenskyy-optimistic-ukraine-will-get-european-fighter-jets/a-64660446
Wednesday 8. February
Arvamus: Me arvestame sõjaohuga liiga vähe ega pinguta piisavalt
(Postimees)
“Kuid mida teha, kui meie kõrval on hullunud Leviaatan, valmis sõjaks ja purustusteks. Selle küsimuse tarvis pidas arvamusliidrite lõunal ettekande kindralmajor Vello-Veiko Palm. Tema sõnul on maskid langenud ja meie naabri, Vene Föderatsiooni koletisepale nüüd kõigile näha. Maskide langemine tegi olukorra küll lihtsamaks, kuid mitte kergemaks. Peame arvestama, et isegi Venemaa täielik sõjaline ebaõnnestumine Ukrainas ei luba meil kergemalt hingata. Kaotus ei tähenda Venemaa kursimuutust ja oht naabritele võib kasvada.”
Student shortages force several Estonian schools to close
(ERR)
“… as the number of children in attendance has fallen to unreasonably low levels. At the same time, a number of Estonian high schools are planning to operate as basic schools going forward.”
https://news.err.ee/1608878066/student-shortages-force-several-estonian-schools-to-close
Estonian Ambassador Leaves Russia As Deadline Expires In Tit-For-Tat Dispute
(RFERL | Foreign Brief)
“Estonian Ambassador Margus Laidre has left Moscow as requested by Russia's Foreign Ministry, Russian media reports said on February 7. … The move came after Estonia told Russia to cut the number of diplomats it has in the Baltic nation to eight, equivalent to the number of Estonian diplomats in Moscow. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Estonia has expelled three Russian diplomats.”
https://www.rferl.org/a/estonia-russia-diplomats-dispute/32260206.html
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https://foreignbrief.com/daily-news/russia-to-expel-estonian-ambassador/
“Venemaa vähendas oma saatkonna nõutud suuruseni.” - ERR
Estonia strengthened self-defense faster than planned due to US aid
(ERR)
“… and the multiple rocket launcher HIMARS is a "significant contribution" towards strengthening Estonia's security, Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur (Reform) said in a meeting with the U.S. ambassador designate this week.”
https://news.err.ee/1608877298/estonia-strengthened-self-defense-faster-than-planned-due-to-us-aid
“In joining NATO, Sweden sees contributions to be made to Estonian security.” - ERR
“NATO expanding to northern shores of Baltic Sea is good for security.” - The Baltic Times
“Canada struggles to shore up Baltic defences against Russian threat.” - CBC
“Expectations versus reality: NATO brigades in the Baltic states?” - OSW
Estonia: How Nordic is the Baltic Nation?
(Life In Norway)
“If your initial response to “Is Estonia a Nordic country?” is an immediate and resounding “no, of course not,” then I think that would be a very understandable and widely shared view. You’d certainly have the same answer as the Norwegians that I’ve asked. … However, within Estonia, the answer is a lot more nuanced.”
https://www.lifeinnorway.net/estonia-how-nordic-is-the-baltic-nation/
Europe Doesn’t Need the United States
(Foreign Policy)
“Until EU leaders accept that the continent can stand on its own feet and Americans give up the role of global police, dependency on Washington will continue. … Multiple generations of European leaders have internalized the belief that U.S. leadership is irreplaceable and that their continent cannot survive without it.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/30/nato-europe-eu-defense-united-states/
“Zelenskyy: Russia is world's 'most anti-European force’.” - Deutsche Welle
Swedish PM to restart talks with Turkey when Ankara is ready
(Reuters)
“… Ankara suspended talks last month as tensions rose following protests in Stockholm, where a far-right politician burned a copy of the Muslim holy book, the Koran. "The first thing we need to do is calm down the situation. It is hard to have good talks when things are literally burning around you," Kristersson told a news conference during a visit to Estonia's capital.”
“Researcher: Sweden's NATO bid could make progress after Turkish election.” - ERR
- Putin’s War -
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment - 7. & 8. February
(ISW)
“Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held a press conference on the status of the war on February 7, likely in an attempt to posture the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as an effective and involved leadership apparatus as the Russian military prepares for a renewed major offensive in Ukraine."
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“Russian military command may be rushing to launch a large-scale offensive operation to conquer Donetsk Oblast in an unrealistic timeframe and likely without sufficient combat power.”
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“Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast.”
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“The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-7-2023
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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2023
Anti-War Russians Stuck in EU Asylum Limbo: ‘I Will Not Go Back’
(Moscow Times)
“The number of EU asylum applications filed by Russian citizens almost tripled last year as hundreds of thousands of Russians opposed to the war in Ukraine or seeking to avoid mobilization went abroad. But many of those applications are still pending in what some asylum-seekers interviewed by The Moscow Times said they feared was an attempt to delay rejection until the war’s end. Some applicants worry that, if refused asylum, they could be sent back to Russia, where they could face jail for their anti-war views or be drafted into the Armed Forces. …”
“Number of Russians Renouncing Citizenship Hits 3-Year High.”
“Free Russia Legion: beginning to fight for a New Russia.” - RFERL
Russia’s Money for Ukraine War Won’t Run Out Anytime Soon, Economists Say
(Russia Matters)
“One of the freshest prognoses comes from economist Alexander Isakov and his colleagues at Bloomberg Economics. By their count, Moscow can comfortably keep the war going for at least three years, assuming the average price of Russia’s benchmark Urals crude doesn’t fall dramatically lower than $50 a barrel, price cap or not. Bloomberg economists are not alone in thinking it will be years before Russia empties its war chest.”
“Does Russia have enough money for war?” - AlJazeera, Dec. 2022
“Russia’s Second, Silent War Against Its Human Capital.” - Carnegie
Ukraine and Belarus Are Fighting the Same War
(Foreign Policy)
“Rumors abound that Russia is planning a new wave of offensives in Ukraine. According to public sources and Ukrainian intelligence assessments, these may include another attempt to push its forces into Ukraine from the north, from Belarus. Whether this is a genuine possibility or simply a feint to clear Ukrainian forces from other parts of the front line remains to be seen. Either way, this prospect should remind Western decision-makers that they cannot ignore Belarus in their calculations about the war in Ukraine—and that the conflict will continue to have consequences outside its borders.”
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“Belarus served as a base for Russia’s initial invasion of northern Ukraine last February. Since then, it has provided military stores and equipment to Russia, allowed mobilized Russian conscripts to train on its territory, and served as a launching point for missile attacks on Ukraine. Hajun, an independent Belarusian monitoring group, claims that Russia has launched more than 600 missiles at Ukraine from Belarus.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/07/belarus-putin-lukashenko-russia-ukraine-war/
Putin’s Ukraine war exposes Russia’s imperial identity
(Atlantic Council, 1. Feb.)
”Vladimir Putin insists Russians and Ukrainians are “one people” but his brutal invasion of Ukraine has revealed a remarkable lack of “brotherly” Russian empathy for Ukrainians. While many people in other former Soviet republics have identified with Ukraine’s suffering, relatively few Russian citizens have shown any sign of compassion or remorse for the genocidal violence being perpetrated in their name.”
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“According to research conducted by Russia’s internationally respected independent pollster, the Levada Center, Russian public support for the war remained above 70% throughout 2022. Speaking to Germany publication Der Spiegel in early 2023, Levada Center scientific director Lev Gudkov observed that mounting evidence of the atrocities taking place in Ukraine had made virtually no impact on Russian public opinion. “The Russians have little compassion for the Ukrainians. Almost no one here talks about the fact that people are being killed in Ukraine.”
“Putin has Finally Chosen ‘Russia is the Victim of Enemies’ as Core of His Ideology.” - Window on Eurasia
How Russians Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the War
(Foreign Affairs)
“Given the scale of the repression, it is unrealistic to expect a mass uprising against Putin, especially since most ordinary Russians prefer to bury their heads in the sand and find some bizarre rationality and truth in the regime’s logic. People do not want to be on the side of evil, so they designate evil as good, thereby forcing themselves to believe that Putin is bringing peace. As one Kremlin spin doctor put it, the president is launching “missiles of righteousness.” Otherwise, Russians tell themselves, NATO would crush them and dismember their country—even if there was not a shred of evidence of that happening before February 2022. Putin knows best.“
“Year Two of the Ukraine War Is Going to Get Scary.” - New York Times
“Complete Victory over Putin’s Russia Not Only Possible but Vital.” - Window on Eurasia
“Russians seen reinforcing east ahead of offensive.” - BBC
Russia Reconsiders Its Air Defense Strategy
(Jamestown Org)
“All in all, the Kremlin has been fairly confident in the air defense capabilities in and around Moscow. In 2018, the commander of Russia’s air and missile defense forces, Lieutenant General Viktor Gumenny, declared that Moscow’s air and missile defense system is capable of automatically providing missile attack warnings, timely detecting all enemy threats and ensuring the defeat of the entire class of incoming targets (RIA Novosti, July 7, 2018). In December 2022, the former commander of the Russian Ground Forces, Army General Vladimir Boldyrev, confirmed Gumenny’s claims, declaring that Russian air defense systems are capable of repelling any attack (Nsn.fm, December 12, 2022).”
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“However, ever since the Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian military airfields at Engels and Dyagilevo, the effectiveness of Russia’s air defense capabilities have been brought into question. In December 2022, on a talk show of the state-owned television station Russia-1, Russian military expert and director of the Museum of Air Defense Forces Yuri Knutov complained that the Russian Federation has serious problems with air defense. Knutov explained that, after the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, most Russian defense systems were moved closer to the Ukrainian border.”
https://jamestown.org/program/russia-reconsiders-its-air-defense-strategy/
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