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19 May, 2023

 


NATO's new plan to defend the Baltic states moves from deterrence to defense

(ERR)

“Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna (East 200) told ERR he is satisfied with the new plan, but cannot discuss the details. … It is no longer Article 5 in just words and political terms.”

"… years ago the idea was that we would hold out until the Allies arrived, today our own actions are also planned in such a way that if there is actually a military conflict on our territory, it is not only until the Allies arrive, but how to win the war. It is a very different understanding of how to plan our own actions. I can't go into more detail than that.”

https://news.err.ee/1608981887/kallas-nato-s-new-plan-moves-from-deterrence-to-defense



“NATO reaches back to Cold War past with first major defense plans.” - Reuters


 



NATO uuest kaitseplaanist: liikusime heidutuselt kaitsehoiakule 

(ERR)

“Välisminister Margus Tsahkna ütles ERR-ile, et on NATO uue kaitseplaaniga rahul, kuigi ei saa sellest detailselt rääkida. "Aga need on realistlikud plaanid ja need on realistlikult täidetud ka võimekustega. Ehk iga plaan vajab ka seda, et on olemas võimekus, on olemas tehnoloogia, võimekused, logistika, teed. See on päris kõva samm edasi. Kui me oleme kogu aeg öelnud, et Eesti on paremini kaitstud kui kunagi varem, siis ma võin öelda, et see läheb järjest-järjest paremaks," rääkis Tsahkna.”

“Ministri sõnul NATO kaitseplaanid läinud üha täpsemaks. "Mida ma võin täna välisministrina öelda, on see, et NATO artikkel 5 on võimeline reaalselt oma võimekustega käivituma esimesest sekundist peale, kui selleks on vajadus."

https://www.err.ee/1608981686/kallas-nato-uuest-kaitseplaanist-liikusime-heidutuselt-kaitsehoiakule





Narvast ei tohi saada Eesti Donetskit

Andrei Kuzitškin, Postimees

“Narvas toimunud intsident, kui kohalik elanik tõukas 9. mail kodanikuaktivist Daniil Kurakini tema käes olnud Ukraina lipu pärast trepist alla, oli Ida-Virumaa võimude integratsioonipoliitika kokkuvarisemise käegakatsutav tagajärg.”

“Sellele järgnesid Narva avalikkuse nõudmised eemaldada lossimüürilt plakat, mis kujutab Putinit sõjakurjategijana. Ja kohe algas ka kooliõpetaja tagakiusamine, kes ilmus promenaadile T-särgis, millel kuulus loosung «Putin h**lo». Te ainult mõelge toimuva tähendusele! Narva elanikud on rohkem mures Venemaa presidendi maine kui rahu saatuse pärast Ukrainas! …”

https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7776408/andrei-kuzitskin-narvast-ei-tohi-saada-eesti-donetskit



“Narva muuseum võttis Putinit sõjakurjategijaks nimetava plakati maha.”


“Putin war criminal poster taken down from Narva Castle walls.” - ERR


“Narva schoolteacher resigns over backlash at her anti-Putin t-shirt slogan.”


“Narva: The EU's eastern output is still looking for an identity.” - BNE





Vene imerelvade müüt on ümber lükatud

Teet Kalmus, Estonian World Review

“Putini lähikonnas olnud inimeste informatsiooni kohaselt olid Putini jaoks viimastel aastatel suurimaks rõõmu allikaks relvad. Nn analooge mitteomavad relvad. Ja suure juhi rõõmustamiseks ja enda karjääri edendamiseks käis relvatootjate vahel võistlus, et kes suudab Putinile paremat imerelva presenteerida. Imerelvadest rääkimiseks leidis Putin alati aega ja ta olevat nägu alati säranud kui päike, kui järjekordset multikat nägi relvadest, millele väidetavalt maailmas niipea analooge ei teki. …”

https://www.eesti.ca/teet-kalmus-vene-imerelvade-muut-on-umber-lukatud/article60232







Friday 12. May



Eestis sündis 2022 aastal rekordvähe lapsi, immigratsioon oli väga kõrge

(Estonian World Review)

“Statistikaameti rahvastiku- ja sotsiaalstatistika osakonna juhataja Anet Müürsoo sõnul oli 2022. aasta rahvastikustatistikas eriline. „Eesti rahvaarv kasvas 34,088 inimese ehk piltlikult öeldes Võru maakonna elanikkonna võrra. Selline kasv on erakordne. Võrdluseks, et sellele eelnenud kahel aastal kasvas rahvaarv umbes 1,700 inimese (0,1%) võrra.“

“Kunagi varem pole Eesti rahvastikustatistikas, mille andmed ulatuvad aastasse 1919, registreeritud alla 12,000 sünni. Eelmisel aastal sündis vaid 11,646 last.”

https://www.eesti.ca/eestis-sundis-2022-aastal-rekordvahe-lapsi-immigratsioon-oli-vaga-korge/article60233





Estonia’s births at a record low, migration record high in 2022

By Sten Hankewitz, Estonian World

“… according to Statistics Estonia – never before have fewer than 12,000 births been recorded in Estonian population statistics, which date back to 1919. Last year, however, only 11,646 children were born.”

“The lowest birth rate in a century has probably been influenced by the coronavirus crisis, the war in Ukraine and the subsequent high price rises and cost of living, which in turn appear to have discouraged families from having children. The low birth rate is also affected by the fact that the nineties generation – which was smaller than previous generations – has entered the childbearing age,” Müürsoo said. On average, there have been around 14,000 births a year since regaining independence, she added.”

https://estonianworld.com/life/estonias-births-at-a-record-low-migration-record-high-in-2022/





Estonian ambassador to China: No removal of Ukraine flag from embassy

(ERR)

“We will be taking up the matter with EU and NATO ambassadors, though also, just in case, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs must also be reminded that the Embassy of the Republic of Estonia constitutes the territory of the Republic of Estonia," Estonia's Ambassador to China Hannes Hanso said.”

https://news.err.ee/1608982772/estonian-ambassador-to-china-no-removal-of-ukraine-flag-from-embassy





Kaja Kallas, Europe's New 'Iron Lady’

(Newsweek)

[International media continues to put a spotlight on Kallas.]

https://www.newsweek.com/kaja-kallas-europe-new-iron-lady-estonia-nato-ukraine-russia-1801163



“Russian news show mixes up Sanna Marin and Kaja Kallas.” - Yle


“Prohmakas Vene televisioonis: Kaja Kallasest sai Sanna Marin.” - Postimees


“Finnish PM Sanna Marin received an honorary doctorate from NYU.” - Yle





Interview: NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

(Spiegel)

“… calls on Germany to quickly increase its defense spending and says he expects there will be a debate soon on whether to supply Ukraine with fighter jets.”

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/interview-with-nato-secretary-general-stoltenberg-two-percent-is-the-minimum-of-what-we-need-a-1b471b46-d158-48c8-93ec-4b24e867a8e4





Russia has frozen the bank accounts of the Finnish Embassy in Moscow and the Consulate General's office in St Petersburg

(Yle | Helsinki Times | Moscow Times)

“Finnish President Sauli Niinistö characterised the bank account freezing as an excessive reciprocal measure by Russia.”

https://yle.fi/a/74-20032252

https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/23592-finnish-missions-bank-accounts-frozen-in-russia.html

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/17/russia-freezes-finnish-embassy-bank-accounts-finnish-fm-a81177



“Russia Defends Finnish Embassy Bank Account Freeze.” - Moscow Times





Türgi president Recep Tayyip Erdogan ei toeta endiselt Rootsi liitumist NATO-ga

(ERR)

“Erdogan väitis taas, et Stockholm lubab terrorirühmitustel riigis tegutseda.”

https://www.err.ee/1608983567/erdogan-ei-toeta-endiselt-rootsi-liitumist-nato-ga



“We’re not ready for Sweden right now, says Erdogan.”  - CNN, 19. May


“Erdoğan: I have a ‘special relationship’ with Putin — and it’s only growing.” - Politico Europe


“Turkey Heads Into a Critical Election Runoff.” - Carnegie Europe





Opinion: Collapse of Russian influence is widening in the Baltic region

(The Hill)

“As Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” continues its downward spiral in Ukraine, the future of Russian-occupied or dominated territories is becoming a subject of interest, beginning with Kaliningrad.”

“Slowly but surely, Russian influence is being whittled away in the Baltic region, and this trend has the potential to snowball under right circumstances. Poland, via the Polish Commission on the Standardization of Geographical Names, announced on May 10 that it would no longer refer to Kaliningrad by its Russian name, opting instead to use Królewiec, the Polish translation for Königsberg, which the former East Prussia region was called prior to the end of WW II.”

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4007441-the-collapse-of-russian-influence-is-widening/





'NATO Lake' Vital in Long-Term Russia Conflict: Estonia FM Margus Tsahkna

(Newsweek, 14. May)

“Russia is facing a difficult military situation in northern Europe thanks to NATO's encirclement of the Baltic Sea, Estonia's foreign minister has told Newsweek, with the strategic region now effectively a "NATO lake.”

“Speaking with Newsweek on the sidelines of the Lennart Meri Conference in Tallinn, Estonia, on Saturday, Margus Tsahkna—the leader of the liberal Estonia 200 party and a coalition partner of Prime Minister Kaja Kallas—said the accession of Finland to NATO, plus the imminent addition of Sweden to the alliance, is "tremendously important.” The situation in northern Europe "has changed," Tsahkna said, to one more challenging for a Kremlin that now considers itself at war with the "collective West."

https://www.newsweek.com/nato-lake-baltic-vital-russia-conflict-ukraine-estonia-foreign-minister-margus-tsahkna-1800155



“Denmark aims for closer Nordic security ties in Arctic and Baltic Sea region.” - Reuters, 16. May


“Fewer cruise ships, tourists along the Baltic Sea.” - Radio Sweden


“Strategic implications for Baltic maritime security.” - Center for Global Affairs & Strategic Studies, 8. April


“Baltic Conflict: Russia’s Goal to Distract NATO.” - CSIS, Nov. 2022


“The Baltic will be crucial in the event of conflict between NATO and Russia.” - Engelsberg Ideas, 28. April





NATO’s Got a New Backbone

(Foreign Policy)

“The backbone of NATO, once centered in Paris and Berlin, is shifting eastward and now stretches from Helsinki to the Black Sea. Eastern European nations—namely, Poland, Romania, Finland, and the Baltic states—understand more acutely than their Western neighbors the threat posed by Russia and the imperative for collective resolve in its face.”

“The leaders in Washington must recognize that the NATO-Russia Founding Act has been effectively killed by Russia’s ongoing war. Signed in 1997, this agreement sought to build trust and cooperation between the two parties, but given that Putin has launched the largest land war in Europe since World War II, the political commitment of this agreement should no longer constrain U.S. troop movements and basing in Eastern Europe as it has for the past quarter century. The alliance should act in unison and officially declare the act dead at the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, and Congress should echo these sentiments in support.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/12/ukraine-russia-nato-united-states-poland-war-military-spending-alliance/







Thursday 18. May



Russian, Belarusian students, researchers, and doctors granted exception to sanction

(Postimees | ERR)

“There are a total of 298 citizens of Russia and Belarus studying in higher education establishments in Estonia in the 2022-2023 academic year to whom the sanction applies. The planned exception first and foremost applies to the 78 people graduating from an Estonian-language curriculum.”

https://news.postimees.ee/7778303/russian-belarusian-students-researchers-doctors-granted-exception-to-sanction


https://news.err.ee/1608981740/sanctions-exception-made-for-russian-students-doctors-scientists





Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas Urges EU Ban on Transit Through Russia

(Bloomberg)

“… amid concerns that a spike in trade with third countries is facilitating sanctions evasion. Exports from the Baltic nation of 1.3 million to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Armenia and Uzbekistan have surged since last year, Kallas told reporters. However, she said she doubted whether many of the goods reached these destinations after transiting through Russia.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-18/estonian-premier-urges-eu-ban-on-transit-through-russia?leadSource=uverify






Ukraine tells China envoy it will not give up territory to Russia as price of peace

(The Guardian)

“In the Ukrainian capital, China’s envoy Li Hui is seeking to promote Beijing-led negotiations to resolve the conflict. He is the most senior Chinese diplomat to visit Ukraine since Russia invaded in February 2022.”

“China, a close ally of Moscow, has not publicly condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, whose foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said that peace depended on “respect of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine”. In his meeting with Li, Kuleba “emphasised that Ukraine does not accept any proposals that would involve the loss of its territories or the freezing of the conflict.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/18/ukraine-tells-china-envoy-it-will-not-give-up-territory-to-russia-as-price-of-peace?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other





Sweden scrambles to project military strength ahead of NATO bid

(Politico Europe)

“After decades of cuts, Sweden’s military is recruiting soldiers, opening bases and sourcing modern hardware as the region’s relationship with Russia freezes amid the Ukraine invasion. At a NATO summit in Lithuania this July, Sweden hopes to finalize its year-long membership application as the 32nd member after neighboring Finland entered the alliance in April.”

“We are not seeking to join NATO just for our own protection, we also have much to contribute,” said Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, who arrived by attack boat to Korsö to observe the Aurora training exercise on a recent weekday. “Sweden can help ensure the security of others, that is an important signal which we are sending today.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-scrambles-project-military-strength-nato-bid/





Finland wants EU guidance on Russians fleeing military draft

(Yle | Novaya Gazeta)

“The Finnish Immigration Service (Migri) says 1,109 Russian citizens so far have sought asylum in Finland to avoid military conscription in Russia.”

https://yle.fi/a/74-20032434

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/05/18/more-than-1000-russians-eligible-for-military-service-request-asylum-in-finland-helsinki-awaits-eu-recommendations-en-news




Is the Belarusian Dictatorship Doomed?

(The Bulwark)

“The possibility that Lukashenko’s days are numbered offers hope and opportunity, as well as concern and risk. The United States and its European allies should be prepared for the day when Lukashenko leaves power, however and whenever that may come. For starters, the United States and its allies should reiterate their support for Belarus’s sovereignty and independence, and for Svetlana Tsikhanovskaya to be acting president. She won the 2020 presidential election but was then forced to flee to neighboring Lithuania after Lukashenko fraudulently declared victory. Most countries don’t recognize Lukashenko as the legitimate leader of Belarus, and his departure from the scene would open the possibility for Tsikhanovskaya to return to Minsk.”

https://www.thebulwark.com/is-the-belarusian-dictatorship-doomed/







Wednesday 17. May



Estonian PM pleads with companies to resist ‘ghost trade’ with Russia

(Financial Times)

“Kaja Kallas said in an interview that Russia’s lucrative trade circumventing western sanctions was attracting companies in the Baltic states despite the countries’ hawkish stance on the Ukraine war. Her comments come after the Financial Times identified $1bn of such goods having disproportionately passed through the Baltic states, believed to be part of Moscow’s “ghost trade”. The Estonian leader accused local companies of hypocrisy, telling them: “You are very vocal about...Ukraine and Russia and security...but in a hidden way...you are agreeing [with Moscow]”.”

https://www.ft.com/content/1a17dacf-9c8d-46fe-860d-36ae9b708987





Riigikogu tegi avalduse Ukraina NATO-liikmesuse toetuseks

(ERR)

“Riigikogu võttis kolmapäeval 92 häälega vastu avalduse toetamaks Ukraina soovi liituda NATO-ga, mis on ainus tee reeglitel põhineva maailmakorra, kestliku rahu ja Euroopa demokraatlike riikide julgeoleku tagamiseks. Riigikogu väljendab 95 saadiku esitatud avalduses otsustavat tahet kindlustada Euroopas riikide suveräänsust ja territoriaalset terviklikkust ja saavutada püsiv rahu ning avaldab veendumust, et mõjusfääride poliitika Euroopas on jätkuvalt ohuks kontinendi julgeolekule, teatas riigikogu pressiteenistus.”

https://www.err.ee/1608980645/riigikogu-tegi-avalduse-ukraina-nato-liikmesuse-toetuseks





Fiona Hill: Ukraina uues maailmakorratuses

(Diplomaatia)

“Enam kui aasta pärast Venemaa kallaletungi Ukrainale on Vladimir Putini vallapäästetud jõhker sõda teinud end, nagu suured piirkondlikud konfliktid ikka, tuntavaks kogu maailmas. Erinevalt Vladimir Putini ja teiste isikute väidetest pole sellest ometi saanud Ühendriikide või kollektiivse lääne (USA koos oma liitlastega Euroopas ja mujal) varisõda Venemaa vastu. Praeguses geopoliitilises olukorras kätkeb sõda hoopis vastupidist sisu – see on Venemaa ja ülejäänud riikide kaudne vastuhakk Ühendriikidele. Sõda Ukrainas on teinud pax Americana hääbumise arvatavasti kõigile märgatavaks.”

“Venemaa on osavalt ära kasutanud asjaolu, et Ameerika juhtrollile ülemaailmsetes institutsioonides leidub sügavate juurtega rahvusvahelist tõrksust ning mitmel puhul avalikku vastuseisu. Asi pole üksnes selles, et Venemaa soovib USA-d Euroopast kõrvale tõrjuda ning Hiina tahab USA sõjalist ja majanduslikku kohalolu Aasias tõkestada ja minimeerida, nii et mõlemad ei peaks oma mõjusfääri pärast rahutust tun”

https://diplomaatia.ee/fiona-hill-ukraina-uues-maailmakorratuses-ulejaanud-riigid-uhendriikidele-vastu-hakkamas/





Fiona Hill: Ukraine in 

the new world disorder

(ERR)

“In the current geopolitical arena, the (Ukraine) war is now effectively the reverse—a proxy for a rebellion by Russia and the "Rest" against the United States. The war in Ukraine is perhaps the event that makes the passing of pax Americana apparent to everyone.”

“In its pursuit of the war, Russia has cleverly exploited deep-seated international resistance, and in some cases open challenges, to continued American leadership of global institutions. It is not just Russia that seeks to push the United States to the sidelines in Europe, and China that wants to minimize and contain U.S. military and economic presence in Asia so both can secure their respective spheres of influence.”

https://news.err.ee/1608977948/fiona-hill-ukraine-in-the-new-world-disorder



“Kallas: No question of restoring normal relations with Russia.” - BNN


“Estonian PM in Copenhagen: Aggressor must be defeated.” - Baltic Times


“Estonian parlt deputy speaker: Victory necessary to stop pressure on European economy.” -Baltic Times


“Opinion: Ukraine Can’t Join NATO.” - The American Conservative


“Russia’s parliament approves bill to forcibly deport people from Ukraine’s occupied territories.” - Novaya Gazeta





Ukraine Launches Sabotage Operations on Occupied Territories and Inside Russia

By Mykola Vorobiov, Jamestown Org.

“While the Ukrainian Armed Forces actively prepare for their much-anticipated counteroffensive … Kyiv has launched unprecedented sabotage operations in close cooperation with the Ukrainian resistance within those territories occupied by Russia, including Crimea.”

“While Ukrainian officials do not draw any direct links to these sabotage operations, former advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovich, recently claimed that the acts of resistance in Crimea, Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod and other regions have helped Ukrainian forces as they gear up for their impending counteroffensive and will be invaluable during its active phase.”

https://jamestown.org/program/ukraine-launches-sabotage-operations-on-occupied-territories-and-inside-russia/



“Blockading Crimea Might Be Kyiv's Best Option.” - The Moscow Times


“Crimea Railway Blast Derails Russian Train … by interference from outside persons.” - Moscow Times





Four new member states join Estonia-based NATO CCDCOE

(ERR)

“… bringing the total to 39. On the 15th anniversary of its foundation, the CCDCOE family was joined by Ireland, Iceland, Japan and Ukraine, an event marked by a flag-hoisting ceremony at the CCDCOE headquarters in Tallinn.”

https://news.err.ee/1608980384/four-new-member-states-join-estonia-based-nato-ccdcoe





Estonia's MFA, embassies fly rainbow flags to support LGBT+ community

(ERR)

“Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200) said the LGBT+ community is a full member of society today with the same rights as others.

"Estonia considers it important to advance various human rights issues with like-minded countries. Since 2016, we have been a member of the equal rights coalition comprising 42 countries, aimed at ensuring the human rights of all people, regardless of their sexual orientation or gender identity, so they can enjoy safe lives without violence," he was quoted as saying.”

https://news.err.ee/1608980789/estonia-s-mfa-embassies-fly-rainbow-flags-to-support-lgbt-community





A Visit to the Church in Tallinn

By Mary Lawler, Catholic Exchange

“I acquired a keen desire to go to Estonia and serve the people there. Anything that is good must be from Him, so I believe my love for Estonia is from Him. “The Holy Spirit is random sometimes,” a local told me in Tallinn.”

https://catholicexchange.com/a-visit-to-the-church-in-tallinn/





For Ukrainians, Putin’s Invasion is Their Great Fatherland War

By Paul Goble

“… exactly the opposite outcome that Putin expected and believed he was capable of ensuring would not happen. Russia’s massive attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine have thus proven “counter-productive”. They have only strengthened among Ukrainians their commitment to resist the Russian invaders. But in addition, the successes of their military have convinced them that in the end Ukraine and not Russia will win this war.”

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/05/for-ukrainians-putins-invasion-is-their.html



“NATO countries still slow to increase defense spending.” - Helsinki Times





Germany’s change of heart is now pivotal to the war in Ukraine

(The Guardian)

“Olaf Scholz’s about-turn on military aid policy will be transformative – and shows how German attitudes to the war are shifting.”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/15/germany-war-in-ukraine-olaf-scholz-volodymyr-zelenskiy-military-aid-policy?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other





Belarus: What Happens If Alyaksandr Lukashenka Dies?

(RFERL)

“Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka has appeared in public for the first time in six days, looking and sounding ill, amid swirling speculation about his health. He's held a tight grip on power since 1994.”

https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-lukashenka-succession-russia/32414033.html



“Photos, video of Belarus leader emerge after days of absences that sparked health rumors.” - WRAL


“Belarus and Lithuania: A tale of two countries.” - Social Europe


“Placing Russian nukes in Belarus could destabilize Putin’s last ally.” - Atlantic Council, 28. April


“Border checks between Russia and Belarus are back for the first time in 28 years.” - AP






- Putin’s Forever War -



Opinion: I have never seen the Kremlin so rattled

By Anna Nemtsova, Washington Post

“Never, in more than two decades of covering Vladimir Putin’s regime, have I seen it in such an obvious state of chaos and disarray. These days, Kremlin-watchers don’t have to read tea leaves or decode cryptic utterances from the leadership to spot the signs of intrigue — it’s all out in the open, thanks to Putin confidant Yevgeniy Prigozhin. …”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/17/rattled-kremlin-ukraine-psychological-warfare/





Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment 16. May & 18. May

(ISW)

“Russia conducted another large-scale drone and missile strike on the night of May 15 to 16.”

“Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin attempted to downplay his reported cooperation with Ukrainian intelligence on May 15.”

“The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) proposed a draft regulatory act that would allow FSB officers to conduct searches without a court order, likely to support the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to strengthen domestic repression.”

“Ukrainian forces have seized the tactical initiative and made tactically significant gains around Bakhmut in counter-attack operations on May 18.”

“Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces have seized the battlefield initiative in the Bakhmut area.”

“Prigozhin and Wagner-affiliated milbloggers are blaming Russian conventional forces for military failures in and around Bakhmut.”

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-16-2023

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-18-2023



“Kolonel Eero Rebo: ilm hakkab Ukrainas soosima ründetegevust.” - ERR


“Russia Acknowledges Retreat North Of Bakhmut After Major Advance By Ukrainian Troops.” - RFERL


“Obliteration Of Bakhmut: New Satellite Photos Reveal Ruins.” - RFERL


“Wagneriga seotud firma ostis Hiinast mitu tuhat sõjaväekiivrit.” - ERR


“Russia’s potent hypersonic weapon neutralised, says Ukraine.” - Guardian


“Satellite image reveals 16 Russian strategic bombers deployed near border with Finland and Norway.” - Meduza


“Russia's 'Eroded' Ground Forces Have Run Into 'Big Problems'—U.S. General.” - Newsweek


“Russia’s Convict-Soldiers Have Their Own Brutal Rules.” - Foreign Policy





‘It’s like the USSR’: residents on life in Mariupol a year since Russian occupation

By Luke Harding, The Guardian

“In a series of anonymous interviews with the Guardian, people said Mariupol had been transformed into a gloomy version of the Soviet Union since the last Ukrainian defenders holed up in the Azovstal steelworks surrendered to Russian troops a year ago.”

“I feel as if I’ve fallen into some terrible submerged and downtrodden collective farm. The shops are primitive and the prices astronomical,” one said. “The city isn’t the one I knew. The people are not the same. Everything is changed. I have a permanent feeling of wanting to go home.”

“Mariupol was once a flourishing European metropolis and port on the Sea of Azov, in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region. It was home to 480,000 people. About 120,000 of Mariupol’s original inhabitants survived and still live in the city.”

“Residents estimated about 50,000 Russians had relocated to Mariupol, from Moscow, St Petersburg, Samara and other cities. “These incomers don’t have any idea of what happened. They watch propaganda on TV and think we were rescued from neo-Nazis.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/18/its-like-the-ussr-residents-on-life-in-mariupol-a-year-since-russian-occupation?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other



“'We thought it'd be a crisis we could live through' - steel workers remember Mariupol siege.” - BBC


“Ukrainian videographer Mstyslav Chernov, one of the last reporterstoflee Mariupolin March2022,shareswhathe saw.” - Haaretz





Reading Is the New Resistance in Russia

(Foreign Policy)

“As forbidden language was replaced with official euphemisms and the authorities launched an increasingly harsh crackdown on dissent, many Russians felt a distinct sense of déjà vu. Suddenly, George Orwell’s 1984, a dystopian novel about a totalitarian regime in a state of perpetual war written in the 1940s, became the most popular fiction book. In 2022, it could be seen in the hands of people strolling on Moscow’s boulevards or lying next to vacationers sunbathing on Kaliningrad’s beaches.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/14/russia-ukraine-war-putin-resistance-books-bestsellers-1984-orwell-frankl-haffner-jaspers/





Even a Territorially-Reduced Russia will Still Threaten Itself and the World

By Paul Goble and Aleksandr Podrabinek

“Many appear to believe that breaking Russia into a large number of countries will reduce the threat it poses to its own people and the world, but that is far less true than many assume and has been adopted as a principle by some because “tearing Russia apart is easier than changing the way of life of the country.”

“… a smaller country will lose much of “its military potential and imperial ambitions” but the ability of a state to organize “a global Armageddon no longer depends” on size alone, as North Korea shows.”

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/05/even-territorially-much-reduced-russia.html




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