Bipartisan majorities of Americans reportedly support admitting new members to the alliance - Poll
By Craig Kafura, Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- “81% of Americans say the United States should maintain (62%) or increase (19%) its commitment to NATO, the highest level of support recorded since Chicago Council Surveys began in 1974.”
—
- “Support for maintaining or increasing the US commitment to NATO is bipartisan, with large majorities of Democrats (90%), Independents (78%), and Republicans (75%) in support.”
Ukrainian victory shatters Russia’s reputation as a military superpower
By Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Atlantic Council
“The Russian military suffers from endemic corruption, low morale, and poor leadership, with individual initiative in short supply and commanders deeply reluctant to accept personal responsibility. Last week’s disastrous defeat in northeastern Ukraine will only worsen the situation, with officers gripped by fear as Moscow seeks scapegoats for what is shaping up to be one of the most shameful military defeats in Russian history.”
—
“The scale of Ukraine’s recent victory has stunned the entire world, but perhaps nobody was as surprised as the Russians themselves. Naturally, the Kremlin sought to suppress news of the counteroffensive, but the speed of events and the sheer scale of the collapse meant that details of the unfolding disaster could not be completely censored despite the best efforts of the authorities. The resulting realization was a huge psychological blow for the Russian public, who learned for the first time that the soldiers in Ukraine were demoralized and beaten.”
Friday 16. September
Raadi sÔjahauast leiti 230 inimese sÀilmed
(ERR)
"TeisipĂ€eval alanud vĂ€ljakaevamised Tartus Raadi ĂŒhishaual lĂ”ppesid tĂ€na. Kokku leiti 230 inimese sĂ€ilmed, neist 65 inimese sĂ€ilmed kuulusid arvatavalt punavĂ€elastele ja 165 hinnanguliselt olid pĂ€rit Lemmatsi tankitĂ”rjekraavist," ĂŒtles vĂ€ljakaevamised lĂ€bi viinud Eesti SĂ”jamuuseumi direktor Hellar Lill.”
https://www.err.ee/1608718609/raadi-sojahauast-leiti-230-inimese-sailmed
Germany and Spain have teamed up for NATO’s enhanced Baltic Air Policing
(NATO)
“Under the concept of “plug-and-fight”, a small detachment of approx. 60 Spanish Air Force personnel integrated with the 140-strong German main enhanced Air Policing detachment at Ămari Air Base in Estonia. Together both detachments operated a fleet of nine Eurofighter jets. When ordered to launch by NATO’s northern Combined Air Operations Centre at Uedem in Germany, one Spanish and one German Eurofighters take off on a combined sortie e.g. to identify and escort non-NATO aircraft securing the NATO airspace above the Baltic nations.”
—
“… the German Air Force provided arms, guided missiles and ammunition for the on-board gun for the Spanish jets. They received fuel from German tank trucks and German tractors moved them on the apron. … German technicians executed most of the repair on the Spanish Eurofighters; a Spanish supervisor oversaw and certified their work; translators helped to overcome the language barrier and avoid any misapprehensions that might have sensitive repercussions.”
https://ac.nato.int/archive/2022/DEU_ESP_Comb_eAP
Russian Repression Forces Finno-Ugric Erzya Nation to Move Congress to Estonia
By Paul Goble
“Leaders of the Erzya, one of two subgroups of the Mordvin nation, have infuriated Moscow by their appeals to the international community and support for Ukraine. The Erzya were supposed to have a congress in Mordvinia in August, but Russian police actions have blocked that. Their leaders now say they will convene on in Estonia September 29 to October 1.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/09/russian-repression-forces-finno-ugric.html
Vene armeel pole enam vÔimekust Ukrainat sÔjaliselt vallutada
Rainer Saks, ERR Intervjuu
“Julgeolekueksperdi Rainer Saksa hinnangul ei ole Vene sĂ”javĂ€el enam suutlikkust Ukrainat sĂ”jaliselt vallutada. … Ta tĂ”des, et optimism Ukraina viimase aja kiirete edusammude ĂŒle vĂ”ib olla ennatlik. Samas on Saks kindel, et Vene vĂ€ed ei suuda enam Ukrainat vallutada.”
“Arvamus: Putini aeg saab lĂ€bi, KadĂ”rov veiderdab.” - Postimees
“Vladimir JuĆĄkin: kĂ”ige tĂ”enĂ€olisemalt kukutavad Venemaa juhtkonna kindralid.” - ERR
Vene sÔdurid jÀtsid endast maha selle, mis on neil ka hinges: hÀbi, bardakk, rÀpasus
(Postimees)
“Postimehe ajakirjanik Jaanus Piirsalu viibib koos fotograaf Dmitri Kotjuhiga taas Ukrainas, et tuua lugejateni vĂ€rskeid rindeuudiseid.”
Putin’s NATO bungle
By Ivo Daalder, Politico Erurope
“In short, the Russian president was going to regain everything Russia had lost when the Soviet Union disintegrated, and reverse what he saw as “the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century.” But Putin’s hopes have been brutally crushed, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may well turn out to be the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 21st century — at least as far as Russia is concerned.”
—
“Far from fracturing, NATO and the West as a whole have responded to the war with remarkable unity of effort. Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world. And though Moscow may still hope to exploit Europe’s dependence on Russian gas as a weapon to force appeasement, it increasingly looks like alternative sources of supply and conservation measures will get the Continent through all but the harshest of winters.”
“Meanwhile, attitudes toward Russia have shifted dramatically, undergirding the strong and unified opposition to Moscow and its policies. That change is perhaps most notable in the U.S., where a new survey released by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs shows strong support for Europe and NATO.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/putins-nato-bungle/
“NATO Military Committee praises Estonia for its resilience.” - NATO
Blogger from Belgium outlines five pros and five cons of living in Tallinn
By Aure Notes, Estonian World
“Few countries on the planet have managed to market themselves better than Estonia – a sort of European Singapore, albeit much colder – that conjures futuristic images of a society living side by side with robots and jetting around town on magnetic trains, where everyone can found a billion-dollar start-up while not paying any tax. Of course, the reality isn’t exactly that. …”
https://estonianworld.com/opinion/first-impressions-after-a-year-of-living-in-estonia/
European Parliament brands Hungary: ‘No longer a democracy’
(Politico-Europe)
“The mostly symbolic move presses the EU to take more aggressive action.”
For Russia, Nuclear Power Plants Are Now Nuclear Bombs
(CEPA)
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for the first time, views nuclear power plants as strategic objects in a military conflict.”
https://cepa.org/for-russia-nuclear-plants-are-nuclear-bombs/
Thursday 15. September
Estonia's ambassador to Russia says atmosphere in Moscow has changed
(ERR)
“Estonian Ambassador to Russia Margus Laidre said … “I would definitely dare to say that the atmosphere in Moscow, perhaps for the first time since the beginning of the war, has changed to some extent," Laidre went on. Since the current phase of the conflict began in February, there has been a vast decline in consular work for the embassy. Moscow’s visa load in round numbers has usually been, before the war, 1,700 visas a week. Now it has dropped to a hundred.”
—
"Approximately 20,000 Estonian citizens live in Russia, and due to the closure of other Estonian consulates, people are now turning to the embassy in Moscow with their daily concerns and problems … The consulates in St. Petersburg and Pskov have both stopped working …”
Kallas defends banning Russian tourists
(Emerging Europe)
“Banning Russian tourists from entering the EU can bring home the consequences of the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine to the Muscovite and St Petersburg elites, says Kaja Kallas.”
https://emerging-europe.com/news/estonian-pm-defends-ban-on-russian-tourists/
—
President Karis rÀÀkis admiral Baueriga NATO heidutus- ja kaitsehoiaku tugevdamisest
(LÔunaeestlane)
“See, et Venemaa vĂ€ed pole Ukrainas oma eesmĂ€rke saavutanud, ei tĂ€henda, et Venemaa sĂ”jaline oht oleks kadunud ja seetĂ”ttu ei tohi me valvsust kaotada.“
LÀÀnemeri on taas esimene kaitsejoon
Tony Lawrence, Diplomaatia
“1990. aastate alguses oli LÀÀs – iseĂ€ranis Saksamaa – veendunud, et Venemaa muudab end ning ees ootab ĂŒhine tulevik. [1975. aastal] Helsingi kokkulepetele alla kirjutanud riigid olid siiralt veendunud, et tulevikus on Euroopa peamisteks tugisammasteks rahu ja demokraatia. See paneb lausa nördima, kuidas Venemaa on Ukrainas agressiooni algatamisega ÔÔnestanud meie kindlustunnet ĂŒhise tuleviku suhtes, lĂ”hkunud kĂ”ik, millesse me uskusime, ning keeranud kalendri 1939. aastasse tagasi.”
https://diplomaatia.ee/laanemeri-on-taas-esimene-kaitsejoon/
Ukraina vabastab ka Krimmi
Eerik-Niiles Kross, Postimees - Arvamus
“Jutud Ukraina kindralite oskamatusest suuri operatsioone planeerida ja lĂ€bi viia on jĂ€rjekordne ukrainlaste alahindamine. Suurriiklik ĂŒlbus nii venelaste kui vaikimisi ka sakslaste ja prantslaste poolt.”
—
“Juulist saadik justkui lekitud, vihjatud ja lubatud suurpealetung lĂ”unas oli suurepĂ€rane pettemanööver. Seda jĂ€id kĂ”ik uskuma, seda oodati, selle venimist peeti Ukraina vĂ”imetuse kinnituseks.”
https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7604287/eerik-niiles-kross-ukraina-vabastab-ka-krimmi
It started and will end with Crimea
By Christine Karelska, Visegrad Insight
“The policy of non-recognition, a set of sanctions and the Pompeo Crimea Declaration were not sufficient to change Putin’s stance on Crimea. However, the rules of the game dramatically changed after 24 February. What was thought to be ‘mission impossible’ seems to become a window of opportunity for Ukraine to restore its territorial integrity within the internationally recognised borders of 1991. Will Ukrainians finally return what belongs to their country amid the vicious invasion? Are Ukrainian allies on board with this?”
https://visegradinsight.eu/crimea-battle-ukraine-russia/
War in Ukraine: Alternative Russian Futures, Assumptions and Risk Calculus
By Graeme P. Herd, ICDS
“Russia’s “besieged fortress” narrative generates grievances and resentments that enable President Putin to claim that Russia is “rising from its knees.”
—
“If at some level Putin perceives Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a breakout from “encirclement,” all is not “going according to plan.”
https://icds.ee/en/putins-war-in-ukraine-alternative-russian-futures-assumptions-and-risk-calculus/
NATO’s Stoltenberg: Ukraine’s Gains Are ‘Extremely Encouraging’
(Foreign Policy)
“NATO’s support, however, raises several questions. How long can these 30 democracies—each with their own internal domestic concerns and economic pressures—continue to arm and assist Ukraine? How can NATO continue to repel Russian cyberattacks and other threats?”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/15/nato-jens-stoltenberg-ukraine-fp-live/
Meet Killnet, Russia’s hacking patriots plaguing Europe
(Politico Europe)
“Estonia was targeted on August 17, but authorities said the attack on e-government services had gone “largely unnoticed” by Estonian citizens.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/meet-killnet-russias-hacking-patriots-plaguing-europe/
Estonia repelled Killnet’s cyber attack
(Estonews)
[A full listing of causes and non-effects of last month’s attack.]
https://estonewsoftheweek.blogspot.com/2022_08_14_archive.html
For Estonians, Only Russians Who Deny Occupation are a Problem
By Vladislav Velizhanin, Paul Goble
“Getting rid of the myth of the Russian soldier-liberator will finally make it possible to leave behind the main bone of contention between the two and thus any reciprocal manifestations of Russophobia.” What is important is not who your ancestors were, the commentator continues, “but which side you sympathize with now when you know what happened.”
—
“Most people in European countries have gone through this process of admitting the crimes of the past and thus laid the foundation for good relations now. But Russians have not and are currently behind encouraged by Moscow not to do so ever. That is the source of what Russians call Russophobia, nothing else.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/09/for-estonians-only-russians-who-deny.html
Muinsuskaitsjad on vastu Tartu toomkiriku varemetesse restorani rajamisele
(ERR)
"Toomkiriku varemetesse klaasist paviljonina kavandatud restoran rohkem kui sajale inimesele koos klaasist seintega teenindussaali, lĂ€bipaistmatute seintega abiruumide, sealhulgas tualetid, ja köögiga rikub mĂ€lestist tema terviklikkuses ja autentsuses, suleb varemete avatuse, lĂ€bipaistvuse ning avaliku ruumi, lĂ”hub vaateid varemetele ning risustab tervikpilti vÀÀrikast mĂ€lestisest.”
“Heritage activists against Tartu Cathedral restaurant plan.” - ERR
Sweden election: How an ex neo-Nazi movement became kingmakers
(BBC)
“More than one in five Swedes voted for the radical anti-immigration Sweden Democrats (SD) party in elections on Sunday. Now the second-largest political party in the country, its anticipated 73 MPs are expected to play a crucial role in supporting a ruling right-wing coalition - if not a formal position in the government itself.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62913356
“Rootsi valimised vĂ”itsid parempoolsed.” - LĂ”unaeestlane
“Swedish PM resigns as right-wing parties win vote.” - BBC
Wednesday 14. September
“What Happened in Bucha and Mariupol Once Happened in Estonia”
(Kyiv Post)
“Estonia’s Minister of Entrepreneurship and Information Technology Kristjan JĂ€rvan explains why Estonia is “100% for Ukraine,” how Tallinn is drawing inspiration from Ukraine’s e-government systems, and why each Russian is responsible for the Kremlin’s war.”
Danish battlegroup's Leopard 2A7 tanks arrive at Paldiski
(ERR)
“The sixth Danish rotation of the NATO battlegroup arrived in Estonia on Monday complete with Leopard 2A7 tanks, other vehicles and equipment. … this is the first time their Leopard 2A7 tanks are with them.”
https://news.err.ee/1608713380/gallery-danish-battlegroup-s-leopard-2a7-tanks-arrive-in-estonia
EU: Soaring energy costs leave households fearing winter
(Deutsche Welle)
“The windfall levy on energy companies that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is proposing could make billions of euros available to cushion the blow of soaring energy costs. That's likely to come as welcome news to many households.”
https://www.dw.com/en/eu-soaring-energy-costs-leave-households-fearing-winter/av-63114094
“EU seeks $140 billion to insulate consumers from energy crisis.” - Reuters
“E.U. proposes emergency energy measures as Russia’s war tests Europe.” - Washington Post
“The Coming Winter Could Be One of the Worst in History.” - Spiegel
Finland’s Gasgrid to start commissioning FSRU terminal in December
(LNGPrime)
“… in Inkoo or Estonia’s Paldiski. Excelerate’s 150,900-cbm Exemplar will serve Finland, Estonia, and other Baltic states under a 10-year charter deal Gasgrid signed with the US LNG firm in May.”
“Finland will be self-sufficient in electricity within a year or two.” - Yle
Russia's neighbors are making deals beyond NATO to boost their defenses in case of an imminent attack
(Business Insider)
“Estonia's defense minister, Hanno Pevkur, told Insider he was happy with the steps NATO is taking, but said of his country and its Baltic neighbors: "We're not only sitting here and waiting for what NATO will do.” … Estonia invested around $800 million this year on defense, with more expected, and that he wants to double the size of the country's volunteer defense force. Estonia is in conversation with its neighbors, and Pevkur said he hopes for significant new defense agreements that could help deter Russia. "Estonia has to be ready to fight," he said.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-neighbors-boost-defenses-beyond-nato-faster-2022-9
- Putin’s War -
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment 15. September
(ISW)
“Ukrainian forces continuing counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine.”
—
“Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov called on all federal subjects to initiate “self-mobilization” and not wait on the Kremlin to declare martial law.”
—
“The Kremlin has almost certainly drained a large proportion of the forces originally stationed in Russian bases in former Soviet states.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-15
“The consequences of Russia’s military failures have not yet fully unfolded.” - CEPA
“Putin claims he’s not in a hurry, and the offensive in Ukraine's Donbas region remains on track.” - BBC
“The word 'war' is off-limits in Russia, but some politicians are accusing Putin of treason.” - CBC
“Ukrainian investigators began exhuming bodies from a mass burial site in Izium, Ukraine.” - New York Times
Maps And Videos Show How Ukraine’s ‘Blitzkrieg’ Offensive Shocked Russia
By Sebastien Roblin, 19fortyfive
“Lurking in the shadow of Ukraine’s heavily advertised counteroffensive in Kherson, the Kharkiv campaign took Russian forces by surprise. It became a textbook example of a fast-paced breakthrough and exploitation operation – the very sort of campaign Russian armored units mostly failed to achieve at the beginning of the war. In this article, we’ll look at how Ukraine’s outgunned forces achieved this stunning, little-anticipated victory.”
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/09/ukraine-routed-russia-in-one-week/
“Ukrainian Balakliya-Kupyansk Offensive: Sequence of Events, Mechanics and Consequences.” - Jamestown Org.
“Ukrainians are not willing to give up territory or sovereignty.” - The Conversation
“How European tanks can help Ukraine take back its territory.” - ECFR
“What Happens to Russia After It Loses?” - The Daily Beast
“Russia Is Seeding Ukraine’s Soil With Land Mines.” - Foreign Policy
“Putin does not realise the invasion of Ukraine is a mistake.” - BBC
“Russians debate military future in Ukraine.” - Deutsche Welle
“How The Russian Army Is Rotting From Within.” - Worldcrunch
“Ukraine reclaims more territory, reports capturing many Russian soldiers.” - CBC
“Russian soldiers don't have the will to keep fighting in Ukraine.” - CNN
“Russia Abandoned Powerful Artillery In Ukraine.” - 19fortyfive
“Liberated villages describe Russian troops dropping rifles and fleeing.” - Stars & Stripes
“Russia has Never Lost a Defensive War But Rarely Won an Aggressive One.” - by Vladislav Inozemtsev | Paul Goble
“Scenes of devastation emerge from Ukrainian village freed from Russian occupation.” - CBC
“Suddenly, Ukraine is winning.” - The New Statesman
“How will Putin respond to his latest defeat?” - Ther Spectator
Kremlin Must Placate Its Supporters Amid Outrage Over Kharkiv Retreat
By Andrey Pertsev, Carnegie Endowment
“In launching the war against neighboring Ukraine, Putin won over his country’s ultra-patriots and turned them into his fiercest supporters. Having radicalized them with imperialist slogans and actions, the Kremlin now risks those most vitriolic supporters turning against it. Trying to appease them is also a risky move, as it would alienate the passive majority of Russian society, which may support the “special operation,” but certainly does not want to take part in it.”
—
“Ukraine’s blitz counterattack succeeded in driving out Russian troops from large parts of the Kharkiv region in just a few days. Russia’s Defense Ministry described what had happened as simply “the regrouping of troops.” Yet the real scale of Russia’s retreat didn’t go unnoticed by ultra-patriot channels on the Telegram messaging app. Their authors have described it as a catastrophe, and have gone as far as to criticize the Russian leadership, demanding the truth about the situation on the ground, purges in the army chain of command, and other radical measures such as a general mobilization and “all-out war.”
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/87900
Ukraine Pulled Off a Masterstroke
By Phillips Payson O’Brien, The Atlantic
“The stunningly swift advance of Ukrainian forces, which started around September 1 and sped up soon after, has easily been the most dramatic—and for Ukraine and its supporters, the most uplifting—episode of the war since the current Russian invasion began on February 24. In a few days the Ukrainians liberated about as much territory as Russia had captured in a few months …”
—
“This stunning Ukrainian advance was anything but sudden. It resulted from a patient military buildup, excellent operational security, and, maybe most important, the diversion of some of the Russian army’s most powerful units from Kharkiv Oblast itself. The overall planning by the Ukrainian government and armed forces worked well on so many levels that it produced one of the greatest military-strategy successes since 1945.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/ukraine-russia-putin-kharkiv-kupyansk/671407/
Predictions of Putin’s Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated
By Mark Lawrence Schrad, Foreign Policy
“There is a growing cottage industry among Russia watchers and international relations experts focused on the political demise of Russian President Vladimir Putin. It’s an understandable wish—but one that so far is rooted more in optimism about karmic justice than in reality. Virtually every Kremlin setback gets framed as “the beginning of the end of Putin” and his regime. The Russian Armed Forces’ recent disorganized retreat and “regrouping” in the face of a dramatic Ukrainian offensive have unleashed yet another wave of premature speculation about Putin’s impending doom, unbalanced by any consideration of the sources of his political resilience and stability, which have kept him in power through one political crisis after another.”
—
“The end-of-Putin genre is nothing new and includes (ultimately false) prognostications by all manner of respected journalists, academics, Russian opposition politicians, and even Western leaders. The predictions of Putin’s imminent demise have been around for almost the entirety of his rule. …”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/13/russia-ukraine-war-end-of-putin-predictions/
Is it Time to Prepare for a Victory?
By Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic
“Russian troops are not fighting back. More than that: Offered the choice of fighting or fleeing, many of them appear to be escaping as fast as they can. For several days, soldiers and others have posted photographs of hastily abandoned military vehicles and equipment, as well as videos showing lines of cars, presumably belonging to collaborators, fleeing the occupied territories. A Ukrainian General Staff report said that Russian soldiers were ditching their uniforms, donning civilian clothes, and trying to slip back into Russian territory. The Ukrainian security service has set up a hotline that Russian soldiers can call if they want to surrender, and it has also posted recordings of some of the calls. The fundamental difference between Ukrainian soldiers, who are fighting for their country’s existence, and Russian soldiers, who are fighting for their salary, has finally begun to matter.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/ukraine-victory-russia-putin/671405/
“Ukrainian surge throws Kremlin propagandists into disarray.” - Politico
And Finally:
https://www.startribune.com/editorial-cartoon-dave-whamond-on-breaking-the-news-to-putin/600206244/
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