Energiakriis kestab vähemalt neli aastat
(The energy crisis will last at least four years.)
(ERR, 5. Sept.)
“Energiakriisile ei ole järgmise nelja aasta jooksul lahendust oodata, Venemaa aga läänt lõputult survestada ei suuda, rääkisid presidendi majandusnõunik Kaspar Oja ning majanduseksperdid Raivo Vare ja Heido Vitsur “Välistunnis”."
—
“Vene gaasikraanid tõenäoliselt läänele lõputult kinni ei jää. "Venemaa mängib praegu taktikalist mängu – ta proovib igal juhul enne talve saavutada teatud oma geopoliitilisi tulemusi selle läbi, lõhkuda lääne ühtsust. Aga tegelikult see ei saa pikaajaline strateegia olla, sest Venemaal on juba täna probleem, et on kukkunud naftatoodang, gaasitoodang. Selle taastamine võtab väga palju aega ja raha, sellepärast üritatakse mängida seda nii kaua kuni on tehniliselt võimalik. Siis tekivad füüsilised piirid Venemaa jaoks ette," sõnas Vare.”
https://www.err.ee/1608705961/eksperdid-energiakriis-kestab-vahemalt-neli-aastat
“EL-i riigid nõuavad elektritootjate kasumi suuremat maksustamist.” - ERR
“Euroopa gaasihinnad jäävad mitmeteks aastateks kõrgeks.” - Postimees
“Arvamus: Vene gaasiga ei tasu enam arvestada.” - Postimees
“Kaja Kallas tegeleb energiakriisiga.” - Postimees
How the Baltic Sea Countries Can Shield Europe from Russia’s Energy Weapon
(Project Syndicate, 31. Aug.)
“Russia’s use of energy as a political and economic weapon has put the countries around the Baltic Sea on the frontline of the international energy crisis. But by strengthening energy security, phasing out Russian fossil fuels, and increasing our offshore wind power capacity seven times in just eight years, the region’s countries will play a key role in shielding Europe from Russia’s energy weapon.”
—
“The Baltic Sea Energy Security Summit, held in Denmark this week, brought together the President of the European Commission, the EU Energy Commissioner, Prime Ministers, Presidents, and Energy Ministers from Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, and Denmark.”
Von der Leyen unveils five ‘immediate’ moves to tame EU energy prices
(Politico Europe)
“Alongside a price cap on Russian gas, the Commission also proposed four ideas to bring energy prices under control: mandatory measures to reduce electricity demand; a cap on revenues for companies generating electricity from low-cost sources with those "unexpected profits" going to help consumers; a solidarity tax on fossil fuel companies making big profits; and increased support for ailing utility companies — many of which have been hammered with high gas costs.”
“Gas price spat overshadows EU energy ministers’ effort to tackle price crisis.” - Politico
Russia has turned off Nord Stream 1. What it means for the EU
(Euronews, 7. Sept.)
“For EU officials, Russia stopping its key gas pipeline to Europe is proof the Kremlin is weaponising energy supplies. It also means the next several winters are likely to be difficult for governments to manage and for vulnerable households to financially survive.”
—
"In my view, this crisis will probably last three to four years, even if the war (in Ukraine) ends very soon, and hopefully it will," Paul Deane, a research fellow at University College Cork, told Euronews. Russia supplied 45% of the EU's total gas imports last year, amounting to about 155 billion cubic metres (bcm). More than a third of that — 59.2 bcm — transited through Nord Stream 1.”
“Govt approves Estonia's positions for emergency meeting of EU energy ministers.” - Baltic Times
“Europe Can Survive a Bad Winter.” - Foreign Policy
“Gas prices in Europe jumped over 30%.” - Deutsche Welle
“How European states want to tackle the energy crunch.” - DW
“Soome käivitas neljapäeval kaks varuelektrijaama.” - ERR
“How the Russian Oil Price Cap Will Work.” - Foreign Policxy
“The Days of Energy Deregulation Are Over in Europe.” - New York Times
“EU plans to cap Russian gas price as Putin warns West of winter freeze.” - Reuters
“Only Energy Independence From Russia Can Stave Off Disaster.” - Foreign Affairs
“Europe's energy crisis: Ursula von der Leyen unveils five proposals to curb soaring prices.” - Euronews
“NATO chief : European countries will ‘pay a price’ this winter for Ukraine support.” - The Hill
Friday 9. September
Estonian leaders express condolences on the passing of Queen Elizabeth II
(Estonian World)
“Her sense of service and dedication to public duty were unparalleled. It’s the end of an era but her legend will live on and inspire.” - Kaja Kallas
—
“I remember a pleasant, fascinating conversation with someone who was clearly interested in what was being done and thought in one small country. We talked about history, shared memories, discussed the future. … It is a new era. Rest in peace.” - Kersti Kaljulaid
—
“My deepest condolences to the Royal Family and all British people upon the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, an extraordinary woman and leader of the nation. Estonia mourns with you.” - Viljar Lubi, Estonia’s ambassador in the UK
—
“My condolences to the Royal family and to the people of the United Kingdom. I had the privilege of hosting Queen Elizabeth when she had a state visit to Estonia in 2006. A remarkable woman.” - Toomas Hendrik Ilves
“Finland’s Marin and Niinistö sent condolences to royal family, people of UK.” - Helsinki Times
Eesti diplomaatiline kohalolek Venemaal on järsult vähenenud
(ERR)
“Eesti on sulgenud oma konsulaadid Peterburis ja Pihkvas ning Moskva saatkonnas on tavapärasest poole vähem diplomaate. Kui Moskvas oli Eestil varasemalt kümmekond diplomaadi ametikohta, siis praegu on saatkonna kodulehe andmeil seal ainult viis Tallinnast saadetud diplomaadi staatusega ametnikku.”
https://www.err.ee/1608709897/eesti-diplomaatiline-kohalolek-venemaal-on-jarsult-vahenenud
Kuningannale esinenud eestlane: ta oli lausa legend
(Postimees)
“Eestlaste hulgas pole ilmselt väga palju neid, kellel on õnnestunud esineda kuninganna Elizabeth II-le ja laulda kroonitud peast mõne meetri kaugusel Suurbritannia hümni «God save the Queen» (Jumal, kaitse kuningannat). Endine raadioajakirjanik Rein Kübarsepp aga saatuselt sellise võimaluse just sai.”
https://maailm.postimees.ee/7602044/kuningannale-esinenud-eestlane-ta-oli-lausa-legend
The European Central Bank increased its interest rate Thursday by the largest amount in its history
(Christian Science Monitor)
“The bank’s 25-member governing council raised its key benchmarks by an unprecedented three-quarters of a percentage point for the 19 countries that use the euro currency. The ECB usually moves rates by a quarter-point and had not raised its key bank lending rate by three-quarters of a point since the euro’s launch in 1999.”
Estonia’s church: A treasure for future generations
(The Lutheran World Federation)
“LWF Vice-President Urmas Viilma on his early years and the region today.”
https://www.lutheranworld.org/news/estonia-church-treasure-future-generations
'Latvia-Estonia Cooperation: A New Turning Point?’
(Latvian Broadcasting)
Thursday 8. September
Sõda Ukrainas mõjutab oluliselt NATO kollektiivset julgeolekut
(Postimees)
“Septembri keskel toimub Tallinnas NATO sõjalise komitee konverents, kus liitlasriikide kaitsejõudude juhatajad arutavad 2022. aasta juulis toimunud Madridi tippkohtumisel NATO riigipeade ja valitsusjuhtide poolt tehtud alliansi heidutuse ja kaitsepositsiooni puudutavate otsuste elluviimist. Esmakordselt on konverentsile osalema kutsutud ka Soome ja Rootsi kaitsejõudude ülemjuhatajad, kirjutavad Eesti Kaitseväe juhataja kindralleitnant Martin Herem ja NATO sõjalise komitee esimees admiral Rob Bauer.”
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirms increase in US troop presence in Estonia
(Baltic Times)
“Secretary of Defense Austin confirmed that, as agreed at the Madrid Summit, the United States will increase the continuous rotation of US units and training exercises in Estonia and the other Baltic countries in the near future. This is a strong signal of the continued US presence in the region and will help to enhance our common deterrence on NATO's eastern flank.”
https://www.baltictimes.com/minister__austin_confirms_increase_in_us_troop_presence_in_estonia/
“Estonia joins Poland in buying Piorun anti-aircraft missiles.” - Defense News
“Biden readies new weapon pipelines for Eastern Europe.” - Politico Europe
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland will temporarily restrict access for Russian citizens holding EU visas
(Axios | Politico)
“… by Sept. 19 to address "public policy and security threats."
https://www.axios.com/2022/09/07/baltic-russia-ban-schengen-visa
—
“Joint statement of the prime ministers of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.” - Vabariigi Valitsus
“Eesti, Läti, Leedu ja Poola peaministri ühisavaldus.” - Vabariigi Valitsus
“Nordic countries are not joining the move amid uncertainty over its legality.” - EU Observer
“Russian tourists face higher costs and longer waits for EU visas.” - Politico Europe
“People have Illegally Crossed from Russia into Norway.” - Paul Goble
“MEP Yana Toom tells Brussels Estonia is violating Schengen border rules.” - ERR
Estonia’s embassy in Moscow has received threats
(Postimees | BNN | ERR)
“The Estonian embassy in Moscow has received threats after the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, said that it could be stoned.”
—
“According to Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu, the security of our embassy is constantly monitored. Zakharova spoke in response to Reinsalu's discussion about Russian residents who could pick up paving stones after losing the opportunity to visit the European Union countries, so as to change their situation in their own country.”
https://news.postimees.ee/7600665/estonia-s-embassy-in-moscow-is-prepared-for-possible-provocations
—
https://bnn-news.com/estonian-embassy-in-moscow-receives-threats-238224
—
https://news.err.ee/1608707767/officials-estonia-s-moscow-embassy-well-prepared-if-threats-arise
Eestil on varuplaan puhuks, kui Venemaa peaks Narva jõe vee alla laskma
(ERR)
“Venemaa võiks seisata Narva põlevkivielektrijaamade töö, avades Narva veehoidla lüüsid. Selle tagajärjel langeks Narva jõe veetase ning elektrijaamad ei saaks piisavalt jahutusvett. Eesti Energia kinnitusel on neil selliseks puhuks varuplaan olemas, kuid lähemalt selle sisu avada ei saa.”
https://www.err.ee/1608707038/eestil-on-varuplaan-puhuks-kui-venemaa-peaks-narva-joe-vee-alla-laskma
Which way will Sweden turn on Sunday?
(EU Observer)
“Sweden is often hailed — and scorned, not least by Russia and pro-Trump Republicans — as a liberal utopia. The Nordic country has led the way on issues like gay marriage, women's rights, paternity leave, and refugee rights. During the current election campaign, however, Sweden has taken a sharp and surprising turn to the right. Keen on seizing power from the ruling Social Democrats, the conservative block has sought the aid of a far-right party, the formerly neo-Nazi Sweden Democrats (SD).”
https://euobserver.com/eu-political/156005
Finland has Become a ‘Fourth Baltic Republic’ in Russian Eyes
By Artur Kondratenko | Paul Goble
“… Finnish leaders today like those in the three Baltic states “aren’t satisfied with being passively supportive of the anti-Russian views of EU and NATO but are going above and beyond their new Western allies.”
—
“According to Kondratenko, the anti-Russian actions of the Finnish authorities in recent months “have forced Russian political analysts to begin to speak about what they see as the appearance to the northwest of the Russian Federation of ‘a fourth Baltic state’ inclined just as aggressively anti-Russian as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/09/finland-has-become-fourth-baltic.html
Don’t Call the Baltic a ‘NATO Lake’
(RUSI, Uk)
“The increasing use of the term ‘NATO lake’ in the context of Sweden and Finland’s accession is unhelpful and could have a number of undesirable consequences.”
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/no-dont-call-baltic-nato-lake
Wednesday 7. September
Turistiviisadega Vene kodanikud võivad edaspidi Baltimaade piirist vaid und näha
(Postimees)
“Balti riikide välisministrid jõudsid kolmapäeval Kaunases ühisele kokkuleppele, et hiljemalt septembri lõpust ei ole Schengeni viisaga Vene Föderatsiooni kodanikel Baltimaadesse asja.”
Baltic states agree on Russian entry restrictions
(Deutsche Welle | Euronews | Latvian Broadcasting)
“Latvian Foreign Affairs Minister Edgars Rinkevics said the three Baltic states would significantly limit border crossings for Russian citizens with EU Schengen zone visas, with exceptions for humanitarian and family reasons, truck drivers and diplomats. The nations will coordinate to introduce measures at the same time — expected to be mid-September.”
—
"In the last couple of weeks and months the border crossing by Russian citizens holding Schengen visas have dramatically increased. This is becoming a public security issue, this is also an issue of a moral and political nature," he told a press conference in Lithuania.”
—
—
Population census: the average family size in Estonia has gone up
(BNN)
“According to the results of the register–based population and housing census of 2021, there are 341 995 families in Estonia, of which almost half, or 49%, are two–member families …”
https://bnn-news.com/population-census-the-average-family-size-in-estonia-has-gone-up-238154
UK’s new PM, Liz Truss, takes a strong stance on Russian aggression
(ERR)
“… meaning no change of course in British foreign or defense policy can be expected with the new leader, Estonia's ambassador to the United Kingdom, Vilar Lubi, says.”
https://news.err.ee/1608706336/estonia-s-ambassador-to-uk-liz-truss-takes-tough-line-on-russia
“Boris Johnson steps down as UK Prime Minister.” - Foreign Brief
“UK’s Royal Welsh Battlegroup Leads Exercise Dragon Charge at Tapa.” - The Defense Post
‘Lukashenko Is Easier To Unseat Than Putin’
By Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic
“A band of Belarusians is resisting the threat of a neo-Soviet empire by taking up arms in Ukraine. … We didn’t finish our revolution, we didn’t remove Lukashenko, we didn’t prevent Russian troops from crossing our border to attack Ukraine—all of these are reasons, now, to fight in Ukraine.”
 |
| Screenshot(s) from both editions of Postimees - Estonian and English |
Tuesday 6. September
Pätsi monumendi avamine on kavandatud 21. oktoobriks
(ERR)
“Konstantin Pätsi monumendi rajamine rahvusooperi taha koosneb kahest põhilisest osast: nendeks on skulptuur ise ning selle alla kuuluv vundament koos ümbruse korrastamisega. Praegu toimuvad monumendi vundamendi ehitustööd, millele järgneb valgustite paigaldus. Kavatseme lõpetada vundamendi ja ümbruse ehitustööd oktoobri lõpuks.”
https://www.err.ee/1608706567/patsi-monumendi-avamine-on-kavandatud-21-oktoobriks
Russia is also at war with Estonia
By Maris Lauri, ERR)
“One of the foundations of Russia's imperialistic logic is the notion of Russia's greatness but also the idea that all societies and states function along similar lines. This is complemented by the deeply chauvinistic conviction of the chosen and special status of the Russian people and constant belittling of others. This arrogance and shortsightedness is the reason why Russian authorities keep failing, which does not mean they cannot do a lot of harm to those around them first.”
—
“The aim is to divide Europe, and why not the rest of the world, between Russia and USA, with all "native Russian territories" going to Russia. This stands for every piece of land a Russian soldier has ever set foot on, going back centuries, and includes the right to decide the fates and choices of European states and peoples, the latter going beyond former Russian or Soviet territories.”
—
“We know what that would spell for Estonia, our neighbors and many other European nations. We have experienced it in the past and see it happening in territories Russia has seized from Ukraine. The Russian authorities have been clear enough: the liquidation, destruction, deportation, looting and impoverishment of entire countries and peoples. It is a reality that mustn't be ignored. …”
https://news.err.ee/1608706555/maris-lauri-russia-is-also-at-war-with-estonia
Swedish Film makers found guilty of disturbing wreck of ferry Estonia
(Euronews)
“There is a strong public interest in maintaining the grave peace around M/S Estonia, which is the burial ground for a large number of people,” the Gothenburg district court said in a statement. “The protection of the grave is stronger than the interest in the protection of freedom of speech and information,” it added.”
https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/06/sweden-estonia-ferry
Arctic lakes are drying up
(Helsinki Times)
“Over the past 20 years Arctic lakes have shrunk or dried completely across the pan-Arctic, a region spanning the northern parts of Canada, Russia, Greenland, Scandinavia and Alaska.”
—
“The lake decline comes as a surprise. Scientists had predicted that climate change would initially expand lakes across the tundra, due to land surface changes resulting from melting ground ice, with eventual drying in the mid-21st or 22nd century. Instead, it appears that thawing permafrost, the frozen soil that blankets the Arctic, may drain lakes and outweigh this expansion effect, says Webb. The team theorized that thawing permafrost may decrease lake area by creating drainage channels and increasing soil erosion into the lakes.”
Ukrainians Will Never Forget Putin’s War and Europeans Will Remember It Far Longer that Most Think
By Aleksandr Morozov | Paul Goble
“… so many Ukrainian families have been affected by death or forced migration and none of the usual methods of restoring trust will work for those who have suffered such losses … Moreover, Morozov argues, what Putin has done this year will reopen all the old wounds Ukrainians have suffered at the hands of Russians in the past; and consequently, there will be no reason for any Ukrainian to trust Russians ever again. In addition, Russia’s neighbors won’t trust Moscow, and Europeans will doubt that any further aid will lead to its transformation.”
—
“Russians need to recognize their responsibility, he continues. “This is what we have done” and that is the case regardless of what position or action we took earlier. The only thing that does matter is what we Russians will do in the future, Morozov says.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/09/ukrainians-will-never-forget-putins-war.html
“Moscow’s Attacks on Western Analysts Backfire Again.” - Jamestown
- Putin’s War -
Ukrainians smash 50km past Russian frontlines, general reports
(Politico Europe)
“Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov said Ukrainian soldiers had also recaptured more than 20 villages in the Kharkiv region.”
“Putin Is Angry: Ukraine’s Offensive Breaks Through Outside Kharkiv.” - 19fortyfive
“Liberated Ukrainians embrace troops on lightning advance near Kharkiv.” - Politico Europe
Venemaa strateegiline valearvestus
(Postimees)
“Praeguseks juba enam kui kuus kuud kestnud Vene sõda Ukraina vastu on jõudmas faasi, milles Venemaa loodab tõsiselt proovile panna Ukraina kaitsestrateegia võib-olla pealtnäha nõrgimat lüli: lääneriikide vastupidavust ja sihikindlust, kirjutab kolumnist ja ajaloolane Mart Kuldkepp.”
https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7600415/mart-kuldkepp-venemaa-strateegiline-valearvestus
How Zelenskyy and Ukraine Shattered Russian Military Power
(National Interest)
“The Ukrainian will to fight and die if needed for their homeland and children amounts to an “X” factor which is impossible to quantify or calculate. Indeed, the collective fervor and resolve with which Ukraine has openly defied Russia and unexpectedly mounted a crippling defense is probably the largest reason for Ukraine’s success. Yet at the same time, Russia has also greatly contributed to its own defeat; the Russian military’s assault was beset with tactical errors, strategic miscalculations, supply chain blunders, and morale problems.”
“Team Putin Admits Their Worst Case Scenario Is Coming True.” - Daily Beast
“Russian Volunteers who Fought in Ukraine Feel Betrayed.” - Paul Goble
“Russia’s Multiplying War Problems.” - CEPA
“Military pro-war bloggers with frontline contacts offer rare insight into Russia’s performance on ground.” - The Guardian
“Russian propagandists are scrambling to respond to a slew of major territorial losses in Ukraine.” - The Daily Beast
“Putin’s Choices in Ukraine: Retreat, Attrition or Escalation.” - Jamestown
Ukraine Is Waging a New Kind of War
By Phillips Payson O’Brien, The Atlantic
“Ukrainian officials, defending their country against Russian aggressors, began doing something in July that seemed odd, even counterintuitive: They started speaking loudly and regularly about their plans to liberate Kherson—a key southern city that Russia seized only a week after invading Ukraine on February 24. Indeed, the Ukrainians telegraphed their intentions in a way that the Russians could not mistake. This was like waving a red cape at an angry, incompetent bull. Almost immediately, rumors proliferated that the Russians were racing reinforcements to Kherson to prepare for the Ukrainian attack.”
—
“Goading the Russians into doing so seems to have been the Ukrainians’ goal.”
—
“Fighting in Kherson, by contrast, nullifies almost all of Russia’s advantages in the Donbas. The Russians are at the edge of their supply lines, while the Ukrainians can maneuver around them. … Finally, the entire Russian fighting force in Kherson depends for its supplies on just a small number of bridges that span the wide Dnipro River. In recent weeks, the Ukrainians have attacked those crossings almost nightly, severely hindering Russia from moving supplies to their hard-pressed troops in Kherson. The longer the Russians have to fight with limited supplies, the more the battle will turn in Ukraine’s favor.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/ukraine-counteroffensive-battle-of-kherson/671364/
Ukraine Goes on Offensive in the South
(Spiegel, 6. Sept.)
“Ukraine is still in need of weapons and other equipment in its battle against Russia. But President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has launched an offensive in the southern part of the country, and thus far, it seems to be having an impact.”
“Ilmselgelt on Venemaal mingis lõigus kaitse kokku kukkunud.” - ERR
“Ukraine Claims 'Some Success' In Counteroffensive.” - RFERL
“What It's Like To Survive A Russian Cluster-Bomb Attack.” - RFERL
“Russia should be defeated in Ukraine in order to be cured of imperialism.” - Baltic Times
“Ukraina väed tungivad Harkivi oblastis edukalt edasi.” - ERR
Offsite power supply to Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant destroyed
(The Guardian)
“A vital offsite electricity supply to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant has been destroyed by shelling and there is little likelihood a reliable supply will be re-established, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog chief has said. Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said shelling had destroyed the switchyard of a nearby thermal power plant.”
—
“The plant has supplied power to the nuclear facility each time its normal supply lines had been cut over the past three weeks. The thermal plant was also supplying the surrounding area, which was plunged into darkness. Local Ukrainian officials said work was under way to restore the connection, which has been cut multiple times this week. …”
Russia’s Door to the West May Be Closed for At Least a Decade
(Window on Eurasia)
“As a result, Russia must learn to work with the Muslim world. … China won’t be sufficient as a partner to meet Russia’s needs by itself and that Moscow will need to look south …”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/09/with-door-to-west-closed-for-at-least.html
Terav kiibipuudus vähendab Putini sõjamasina efektiivsust
(ERR)
“Veebiväljaanne Politico kirjutab, et kiipide puuduse tõttu kasutab Venemaa Ukraina sõjas üha vähem kõrgtehnoloogilist relvastust. Venemaa proovib nüüd Moskva-vastastest sanktsioonidest mööda hiilida ja hankida juurde lääneriikides toodetud kiipe. Venemaa armee on Ukrainas kulutanud palju rohkem täppisrakette, kui Moskva sõja alguses eeldas. Venemaa armee kasutab nüüd üha rohkem nõukogudeaegset laskemoona.”
https://www.err.ee/1608706483/politico-terav-kiibipuudus-vahendab-putini-sojamasina-efektiivsust
“Putin scrambles for high-tech parts as his arsenal goes up in smoke.” - Politico Europe
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Looks Like a ‘Failure,’ C.I.A. Director Says
(New York Times)
“Director of the C.I.A., William J. Burns, said that Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, had badly underestimated Ukraine’s courage and capacity for combat.
While the final chapter of the war is yet to be written, Mr. Burns said it was “hard to see Putin’s record in the war as anything but a failure.”
—
“Mr. Burns said that Mr. Putin was surrounded by advisers who are unwilling to challenge him and that the Russian leader mistakenly believed that European resolve will waiver and American attention will wander the longer the conflict drags on.”
—
“Putin’s bet right now is that he is going to be tougher than the Ukrainians, the Europeans, the Americans,” Mr. Burns said, speaking at the Billington CyberSecurity conference in Washington. “I believe, and my colleagues at C.I.A. believe, that Putin is as wrong about that bet as he was profoundly wrong in his assumptions going back to last February about Ukrainian will to resist.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/08/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-cia.html
And Finally:
‘Nothing Has Really Changed’: In Moscow, the Fighting Is a World Away
(New York Times)
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“Very little about day-to-day life seems to have changed in Moscow, where people have the financial resources to weather significant price increases, unlike much of the rest of the country. GUM, the luxury mall next to Red Square, is full of shoppers — though many Western stores like Prada, Gucci and Christian Dior are closed — and restaurants and theaters do thriving business. Moscow’s roads still teem with luxury cars like Lamborghinis and Porsches.”
—
“A few stores closed because of sanctions, which is frustrating but not that bad,” said Yuliya, 18, a recent high-school graduate who was hanging out on a bench in Gorky Park, where Muscovites sunbathe, dance and rollerblade. She and her friends said they don’t really think about the fighting in Ukraine that often.”
—
“That detachment is exactly what President Vladimir V. Putin is counting on as he executes a domestic strategy of shielding Russians from the hardships of war — no draft, no mass funerals, no feelings of loss or conflict. Much of Russia’s effort on the battlefield has not gone as Mr. Putin had planned, but at home, he has mostly succeeded in making Russian life feel as normal as possible.”
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