✔︎ White House to welcome leaders from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania 3. April (Politico)
✔︎ "Russian authorities and diplomats have accepted that Estonia is an independent country because the mental divide between the people of the two countries has become too wide …” (Diplomaatia)
✔︎ Estonia imposed entry ban on 49 individuals on Magnitsky List (ERR)
✔︎ President Kaljulaid met with Queen Elizabeth II (Press release)
✔︎ Estonia | EU Expels Russian Diplomats Over UK Nerve Attack (CNN)
_____________
- Haapsalu photo courtesy of Vambola Kurm:
- On-line version:
- 2014-2018 Archive:
_____________
Friday 30.
March
_____________
- Venemaa saadab riigist välja ühe Eesti kaitseatašee
(ERR | Postimees)
"Venemaa välisministeerium kutsus reedel kohtumisele rea nende riikide suursaadikuid, kes seoses Londonis toimunud mürgitamisjuhtumiga on Vene diplomaate välja saatnud. Eesti puhul otsustas Venemaa riigist välja saata kaitseatašee Toomas Peda.” [Toomas Peda töötas varem Kaitsejõudude Peastaabi protokolliülemana.]
--
—
- Vene mereväe õppus mõjutab Eestit. Lennud muutuvad pikemaks, võib esineda hilinemisi
(Delfi | ERR)
"Venemaa õhuliikluse keskjuhtimiskeskus teavitas Lätit, et raketikatsetused viiakse läbi 4.-6. aprillini kella 6 hommikul 6-ni õhtul. Venemaa on palunud Lätil sulgeda osaliselt oma õhuruumi 18 kilomeetri kõrgusel ning 40 kilomeetri raadiuses Läti rannikust, teatas ministeerium."
--
✔︎ Preventing Escalation in the Baltics: A NATO Playbook
by Ulrich Kühn
(Carnegie Endowment)
"The challenge Russia poses, combined with NATO’s responses to date, creates a series of potential escalation pathways, which need allies’ urgent attention."
- Interview: Moscow’s Baltics Expert Aleksandr Sytin
by Jaanus Piirsalu
(Diplomaatia)
"Russian authorities and diplomats have accepted that Estonia is an independent country because the mental divide between the people of the two countries has become too wide …”
--
“But this mental divide [between the people of Estonia and Russia], which was there and is now only getting wider—an understanding of this has sunk in. It is a different world [compared to Russia today]. … Demonstrating that the Russians are badly off in the Baltics has been unsuccessful. The suppression argument also seems to be failing. … In broader terms, there was only the Bronze Soldier incident in Estonia, which was followed by complete silence [regarding the suppression of Russians]."
- Moskva Balti-ekspert: isegi „positiivne käitumine“ ei anna Eestile sama rolli mis Soomele
Aleksandr Sõtin: "Ma lõpetasin töö kirjutamise 2010. aastal ning siis oli mul veel illusioon, et Venemaa võiks mõningad Baltimaade kogemused üle võtta. Praegu ma loodan, et nende kogemustega arvestab Ukraina. Kuigi kui Baltimaadel võttis minu hinnangul vähemalt kümme aastat, et Nõukogude ajast välja tulla ning postnõukogude sündroom ületada, siis võrreldes Ukrainaga olid mastaabid ju hoopis teistsugused. Venemaa pole seda sündroomi siiani suutnud ületada."
_____________
The Suwalki Corridor
_____________
- Suwalki Corridor: NATO's choke point
by Janusz Bugajski
(CEPA)
"One of the busiest commercial zones in Podlaskie Voivodship, Suwalki is a town situated in northeastern part of Poland some 30 km south-west of the border with Lithuania. … The Suwalki Corridor, a 65-kilometer-wide strip of territory linking Poland with Lithuania, is NATO’s most vulnerable choke point along its eastern flank.”
"In the event of conflict between Russia and NATO, Russia’s military - operating from the Kaliningrad exclave and from Belarus - could attempt to close the Suwalki Corridor and incapacitate NATO as a security provider for its three Baltic members."
- EU outlines plans for 'military Schengen zone’
(Deutsche Welle | others)
"The European Union unveiled plans on Wednesday to lower barriers for moving military equipment and troops across Europe amid rising concern of Russian aggression. … The proposal calls for identifying rail and road routes suitable for military transport and upgrading existing infrastructure, for example by ensuring the height or the weight capacity of bridges can handle tanks and heavy military equipment."
—
—
- Paper: Improving Military Mobility In The EU
(European Commission - pdf)
"The intention is to ensure a coherent approach and synergies between the EU and NATO aiming to effectively address existing barriers, including legal, infrastructure and procedural, in order to facilitate and expedite movement and border crossing of military personnel and material, in full respect of sovereign national decisions."
- A Suwalki Gap Blockade
(via Global Security)
"It would not be neccessary for Russian forces to comprehensively occupy the Sulwaki Gap area. Rather, even a thin, discontinuous line of Russian forces strung out along the Gap would present a barrier, unless NATO forces were prepared to force a passage and escalate the crisis."
--
"One minor highway runs roughly parallel to the Poland-Lithuania border, generally 10 kilometers East of the border in Lithuania. Highway 134 connects Hrodna in Belarus with Kalvarija, and thence Highway 200 runs from Kalvarija to Yasnaya Polyana in Kaliningrad. Convoys of semi-military trucks carrying "humanitarian assistance supplies" from Belarus to Kaliningrad should to the trick nicely. … The primary land supply route from Poland to Lithuania is Highway A5/E67."
_____________
Thursday 29.
March
_____________
- Estonia imposed entry ban on 49 individuals on Magnitsky List
(ERR)
"The government approved a proposal by Minister of Foreign Affairs Sven Mikser (SDE) to impose an entry ban on individuals connected to gross human rights violations, including the death of Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky in 2009, under the International Sanctions Act. Per the proposal, the entry ban will be imposed on 49 individuals included on the Magnitsky List."
- Loe Magnitski nimekirja isikutest, kellele valitsus kehtestas sissesõidukeelu
(Postimees)
"Uudisteagentuur BNS avaldas valitsuses neljapäeval rahvusvahelise sanktsiooni seaduse alusel heaks kiidetud niinimetatud Magnitski nimekirja isikutest, kellele kehtestatakse sissesõidukeeld."
- President Kaljulaid kohtus kuninganna Elizabeth II-ga
(Postimees)
 |
| Photo credits: Steve Parsons/PA Wire/PA Images |
- President of Estonia Kaljulaid met with Queen Elizabeth II
(Press release)
- Kaljulaidi saadab USA visiidil viieliikmeline delegatsioon, teiste hulgas ka Sven Mikser
(Delfi)
"President Kersti Kaljulaid, tema Läti kolleeg Raimonds Vējonis ja Leedu kolleeg Dalia Grybauskaitė kohtuvad tuleval teisipäeval Washingtonis USA presidendi Donald Trumpiga. Trump, Kaljulaid, Vējonis ja Grybauskaitė annavad Valges Majas ka ühise pressikonverentsi ja sellele järgneb Balti-Ameerika ärifoorum."
- First new automatic rifles due in Estonia by early 2019
(Baltic News Service)
"Offers from Heckler & Koch, Sig Sauer and Lewis Machine & Tool Company qualified in the procurement conducted by the Estonian Center for Defense Investment. The manufacturers made four weapons available for testing -- two automatic rifles, a light machine gun, and a precision rifle.”
- FBI looked into Trump plans to build hotel in Latvia with Putin supporter
(The Guardian)
"Latvia asked the US for assistance in 2014 and received a response from the FBI the following year, according to a source familiar with the process. Latvian investigators also examined secret recordings in which Trump was mentioned by a suspect."
- What is PESCO?
by Indrek Elling
(Diplomaatia)
PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation) “… is an EU defence cooperation mechanism, which was specified in the Treaty of Lisbon that entered into force in 2009.”
—
"Europe’s political reality has changed so much over the last few years that, by November 2017, 23 EU member states (including Estonia) presented to the High Representative and the Council of the European Union their joint declaration of intent concerning the launch of structured defence cooperation."
- Opinion: It’s time for the EU to get real
(Politico-Europe)
"Europe doesn’t need any more lofty speeches. What it needs is a stiff dose of pragmatism."
- Video: Italian Typhoons At Work In Estonia During Operation Baltic Eagle
(The Aviationist)
_____________
Wednesday 28.
March
_____________
- Does Europe Have a Russia Policy - Experts weigh in
(Carnegie Europe)
"The EU has no Russia policy whatsoever. Instead, the union is divided between national mercantile interests and positions of principle.” - Toomas Hendrik Ilves
- Interview: Foreign Minister Sven Mikser
(NPR)
“… our situational awareness in Estonia is very good. And so in some ways, I suppose we are even better prepared than many of our friends and allies in the western part Europe or North America to respond to Russian activities."
- Kersti Kaljulaid: "How Nations Can Cope with Digital Transformation”
(Chatham House video)
"The president of Estonia outlines the challenges and opportunities her country faces in regards to this digital transformation."
- US troops should be sent back to Baltic states - Ben Hodges
(Baltic Times)
"Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former commander of the United States Army Europe (USAREUR), said in Vilnius on Wednesday that US rotational troops should be returned to the Baltic states. In his words, after stationing of NATO land forces battalion in the three Baltic states, the United States could contribute by sending logistics and air defense units to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. … US troops now mainly come to the Baltic states for training from Poland."
- Send Navy Ships to the Baltic and Black Seas
(National Review)
"The forward basing of American littoral combat ships to the Baltic and Black Seas would send all the right signals. It would demonstrate that the United States has permanent diplomatic, military, and commercial interests in the region."
- OpEd: Why Russians in New York and Amsterdam Voted for Putin
by Artemy Troitsky
(The Moscow Times)
"In Estonia, only one-third of the Russians voted, but of those who turned out, 94 percent voted for Putin. It seems that the two-thirds that did not vote are part of more recent waves of immigration. Of the 24 acquaintances I spoke to in Tallinn and Tartu, including businessmen, journalists, musicians, activists, managers, doctors, teachers and even a yoga instructor — all of whom recently left Russia but kept their citizenship — most had chosen not to vote out of principle."
--
"More surprising again was the 49 percent in Amsterdam and 51 percent in London that voted for Putin."
- The Pärnu Seawall
(Atlas Obscura)
"The stone wall, which was built between 1863 and 1864, sits atop the remains of a 17th-century seawall. The original wall was constructed under the orders of Catherine the Great of Russia, who inherited control of the southern Estonian town after the Russians conquered Pärnu from the Swedish in 1710. Remnants of the old Russian seawall become visible at low tide beneath the wobbly rocks."
_____________
Tuesday 27.
March
_____________
- Kaljulaid: Conduct between Russia and West worse than during Cold War
(Independent-Uk)
“It is of course worrisome to hear previously during the Cold War period both sides knew the rules,” Ms Kaljulaid told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. “What are the rules right now, thinking of Salisbury, for example? What I am really worried about is indeed that we do not know what might be indeed the next steps."
- And Now What? Russian Foreign Policy in Putin’s Fourth Term
by Kadri Liik
(ECFR)
"The events of recent years have shattered quite a few foreign policy assumptions in Moscow. The Russian leadership did not expect the West to introduce strong sanctions after Crimea and to stick with them for years. Then, it expected China to compensate for lost Western investments. It expected Hillary Clinton to win the US elections and become a tough anti-Russian president. Then it expected Donald Trump to become a soft Russia-friendly president. It expected the EU to collapse under the weight of its own in internal contradictions at the wake of Brexit. It expected Ukraine to collapse under the weight of its unreformed economy, corruption and unruly political passions. It expected the settlement in Syria to be a lot easier. Alas, the world turned out to be more unpredictable and complicated than many Russians thought."
- The strategic balancing act
by Edward Lucas
(CEPA)
"One option is rapid financial sanctions on the Kremlin and its cronies. If Vladimir Putin’s powerful friends know that the next assassination attempt would mean the instant freezing and seizing of tens of billions of dollars of their assets, their enthusiasm for his foreign policy—and for his leadership—will be dented."
--
"We should also look at information attacks. If for example the top ten thousand people in Russia knew that their personal credit-card spending for the past few years was in the hands of our intelligence agencies, and might easily end up leaked on the internet during the next security crisis, their appetite for confrontation with the West would sharply diminish."
- West Finally Beginning to Understand that Appeasement Won’t Work with Putin Either
by Paul Goble
(Window on Eurasia)
“In the 1930s, it seemed to many that if they gave Hitler Austria and closed their eyes to the destruction of Czechoslovakia that he would be satisfied and there would be no war. In the 2010s, they decided that Putin would be satisfied with Crimea and would stop at the Donbass. But aggressors have their own dietary plans. They get fat as long as they are allowed to.”
- Estonia's 2018 economic growth forecast at 3.9 percent
(ERR)
"The Estonian economy should remain in good balance and resilient in the near future. Strong demand and moderate price growth will help with the improvement of the profits of companies. An increasing concern is the Estonian labor market, which has become more intense. The fast growth of labor expenses that accompanies this will hinder the improvement of companies' price-based competitiveness. The savings rate of households is strong and close to the balance of their budget, but the picture is inconsistent across households."
- NATO cuts Russia diplomatic mission amidst spy poisoning row
(Deutsche Welle)
"Jens Stoltenberg announced on Tuesday that the intergovernmental military alliance would be expelling seven observers from the Russian mission over the poisoning of ex-double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter in the UK."
- Finland expels Russian diplomat
(Helsinki Times)
http://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/15422-finland-expels-russian-diplomat.html
- Eastern Ukraine: Part 1 - ‘War'
by Ainar Ruussaar
(ERR)
Part 2 - 'On the Train'
Part 3 - ‘Mariupol'
- The Fate of Former KGB Agents in Latvia
(FPRI)
"Latvian state authorities have the names of around 4,500 people who served as KGB contacts in the ‘80s. The question of whether these names should be revealed to the public has been a central issue in Latvian politics since the early 1990s. It is a part of a large discussion on how Lustration—a policy that aims to cleanse a new democratic regime from the remnants of authoritarian past—should be conducted in Latvia. As Latvia celebrates its centenary in 2018, this debate has reappeared with new force—and it risks the polarization of Latvian society just before October 2018 legislative elections."
- Cambridge Analytica's Psy-Ops Warriors
(Rolling Stone)
“It's bad enough that CA and the Trump campaign would use psychological profiles of American voters developed from Facebook profiles, unbeknownst to those Facebook users. But it's even scarier that these profiles were cooked up and manipulated by a firm using the techniques of military intelligence and psy-ops specialists. Even scarier, perhaps, is the fact that Cambridge Analytica may have links to Russia and to those Russians involved in using bots and trolls – via Facebook, Twitter and other social media platforms – to run an influence campaign in the United States."
_____________
Monday 26.
March
_____________
- Eesti saadab välja Vene saatkonna kaitseatašee polkovnik Afanasjevi
(Various sources)
"Eesti saadab seoses Salisbury keemiarünnakuga riigist välja Venemaa saatkonna kaitseatašee, kelleks on polkovnik Oleg Afanasjev. Mees peab lahkuma Eestist ühe nädala jooksul."
--
--
--
- Estonia | EU Expels Russian Diplomats Over UK Nerve Attack
(Various sources)
"The expulsions by 16 of Britain’s 27 fellow EU members — despite the tough, ongoing Brexit negotiations — amounted to a strong display of European solidarity with the U.K., as a majority of the bloc brushed aside the initial hesitation of some countries, notably Greece, to point a finger at Moscow.”
--
--
--
--
—
- Kus lõppeb ajalooline Tallinn?
(Heureka)
“Ajaloolaste senine arusaam Tallinna linna piiridest on ekslikud ning pakub ajaloolistele ürikutele välja uue tõlgenduse."
_____________
Sunday 25.
March
_____________
- Märtsiküüditamisest möödub 69 aastat
(Reporter)
"25. märtsil 1949. aastal küüditati Nõukogude Liidu võimude poolt Siberisse rohkem kui 22 000 Eesti inimest. Enamik küüditatuid vabanes alles 1958. aastal. Viimased deporteeritud vabastati 1965. aastal, mitu tuhat inimest koju tagasi ei jõudnudki. Baltimaadest deporteeriti 1949. aasta märtsis kokku 95 000 inimest."
- Estonia commemorated victims of 1949 March Deportations
(ERR)
- Brits seek Finnish citizenship at an unprecedented rate as Brexit looms
(Yle)
- Finland's homeless crisis nearly solved
(Christian Science Monitor)
_____________
Russia
_____________
Last Sunday, a deadly fire engulfed the Winter Cherry Mall in Kemerovo, the capital of Russia's Siberian coal-mining region. The blaze swept through a children’s play area and a cinema complex, killing 64 people, 41 of them children. In the wake of the tragedy, horror stories of faulty fire alarms, blocked exits and children texting farewells to loved ones flooded social media. Thousands of Russians in more than twenty cities across the country had spontaneous vigils for the victims of the Kemerovo tragedy. Many of these became protests.
--
“These protests show how little Russians trust their government, and how little the government trusts its own citizens,” said political analyst Yekaterina Schulmann. - The Moscow Times
- Putin’s Grim Reality: Public Fury Over Children’s Deaths in Mall
(New York Times)
"Public anger at the fire - and claims that official bungling and corruption played a part - drowned out the Kremlin’s fury over Monday’s expulsion of Russian diplomats by 23 countries. Even on state-controlled television, news about the fire pushed aside routine denunciations of the West just as four more countries ordered out diplomats over a nerve-agent attack for which London has blamed Moscow."
—
- Kemerovo More Evidence Russia Becoming ‘Upper Volta with Missiles’
(Window on Eurasia)
- Editorial: Never Apologize - A Russian Bureaucrat’s Creed
(The Moscow Times)
"Accountability only runs upward: a civil servant is accountable to his or her superior, not to the public. These types of accountability are mutually exclusive."
- How Russian national TV networks covered Kemerovo
(Meduza)
"The deadly fire at a shopping center in Kemerovo on Sunday has dominated Russia’s national TV networks since Monday, becoming the focus of both news programs and daytime and evening talk shows."
- Russia Searches for Culprits in Deadly Mall Fire
(Transitions)
“The people, by and large, do not believe the authorities. They do not believe the causes of airplane disasters and the number of casualties in Syria and Donbas. They do not believe in the growth of the economy and the stability of the ruble. They do not believe in the integrity of investigations and the effectiveness of measures taken.”
- В пожаре в Кемерово сгорела репутация власти
(Echo of Moscow)
_____________
- Gorbachev’s grandchildren: A new generation is rising in Russia
(The Economist)
"Putin’s election victory does not mean that there is no hope. … The young elite is resentful of pretence, simulation and cynicism—the staples of the current system. Instead they crave convictions and ideas. This was one reason why many Russians refused to cast a ballot on March 18th."
- Opinion: Hello, Generation Putin
(New York Times)
"Mr. Putin’s role in the Russian public imagination today is similar to that of post-colonial national liberation leaders of the 1960s and ’70s. He is viewed as the founder of a new Russian state, the savior of Russia’s dignity and the restorer of its status as a great power. And contrary to Western fantasies, Russians under the age of 25 are among his strongest supporters."
- Putin Finally Went Too Far
by Mark Galeotti
(The Atlantic)
"When Russia's agents poisoned defector Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006, for example, Britain received little real support from its allies when it pushed back against Russia. When assassins killed Chechen activists in Istanbul, no one rushed to help the Turks. When Russian commandos kidnapped Estonian security officer Eston Kohver in 2014, Tallinn had to cut its own deal with Moscow to get him back. Each time, allies offered little more than sympathy, and Putin presumably assumed this would again be the case with Skripal.”
—
"This time, despite the Trump administration’s often-tense relations with Europe and the fraught negotiations over Britain’s divorce from the European Union, the West has delivered an unprecedented collective message."
- Opinion: Vladimir Putin's diplomatic catastrophe
(Deutsche Welle)
"You are lying!” - This is the message behind an unprecedented expulsion of Russian diplomats by countries of the European Union, the United States, Canada and Australia. This demarche will now be included in all textbooks on the history of international relations. Even Saddam Hussein and the Kim dynasty in North Korea were spared such public humiliation.”
- Russia Isn’t Going to Militarize Because Moscow Lacks the Money
(Window on Eurasia)
“… commentator Pavel Pryanikov argues that there isn’t any militarization going on now and there won’t be because “THERE IS NO MONEY.”
- No shock in Russian election: Can Europe surprise Putin?
by Ian Bond
(Center for European Reform)
"After his re-election, the West is more likely to face Putin the aggressive nationalist than Putin the economic reformer. It should respond firmly."
______
___
_
