Putin is doing what he does best. Again
Opinion by Erkki Koort
(Postimees)
“The US-mediated negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have offered Putin a rare opportunity to emerge from isolation and do what he is, unfortunately, good at … It is clear that Russia has not abandoned its goals regarding Ukraine. Given the unexpected situation, the Kremlin sees very clearly that a window of opportunity has opened.”
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“Putin has been lying blatantly for a very long time. His behavior is very KGB-like, where promises made to the enemy are not to be kept. Negotiations with the US have opened up this possibility again, because at least Putin thinks he has found someone who is willing to believe his lies. Unfortunately, the actions of the US administration leave no doubt that Putin and the Russian system are being underestimated.”
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“People with 25+ years of experience are being met by officials who have little knowledge of global politics but are very loyal to Trump. Based on the current situation, it is clear that they cannot recognize moments when the other side pretends to play along.”
https://news.postimees.ee/8212138/erkki-koort-putin-is-again-doing-what-he-does-best
“Putin teeb taas seda, mida kõige paremini oskab.” - Erkki Koort, Postimees
“Putin is pushing the U.S. President to recognize Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory in exchange for a pledge not to seize more land.” - The Moscow Times
“The U.S. has reportedly defunded a program tracking mass abductions of Ukrainian children by Russia.” - The Washington Post
“Opinion: Don’t Believe a Single Word Trump and Putin Say About Ukraine.” - By Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times
“Putin Is Escalating Russia’s Hybrid War Against the West.” - Foreign Affairs
“Russia and Ukraine Swap 372 POWs Day After Putin-Trump Call.” - Moscow Times
“Nearly 90% of Americans blame Putin for Russia-Ukraine war.” - The Hill
Analüütikute hinnangul näitas Putin, et ei ole järeleandmisteks valmis
Anton Aleksejev, ERR
“"Ma loodan, et see oli Trumpi ja tema meeskonna jaoks nagu külm dušš. Kogu Trumpi strateegia, mida ta on viimase kahe kuu jooksul ellu viinud, seisnes Ukraina survestamises. Trump rääkis, et Ukrainaga on tal raske, Putin aga lubas talle teha kõik kiiresti. Nüüd on tõehetk, kui Putin mõnitab Trumpi avalikult," kommenteeris New Geopolitics Research Networki analüütik Mõhhailo Samus.”
https://www.err.ee/1609637689/analuutikute-hinnangul-naitas-putin-et-ei-ole-jareleandmisteks-valmis
Putin showed his ‘true face’ by bombing Ukraine after ceasefire call
(Politico Europe)
“… said Finland’s president Alexander Stubb. … Despite agreeing to a pause on attacking energy infrastructure, Russia unleashed a barrage of drone and missile attacks on Ukraine after the call, including against civilian and energy targets.”
Why are Russian troops so bestial?
By Julius Strauss, CEPA
“The roots of Russian military brutality run deep. During World War II, the Red Army earned a reputation for its harsh treatment of both enemies and civilians. As Soviet soldiers advanced through Eastern Europe, they left a trail of destruction, including widespread rape and looting.”
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“Stalin once infamously suggested that rape was a reward for Soviet soldiers liberating Eastern Europe from the Nazis. In cities from Berlin to Budapest hundreds of thousands of women were brutally abused. Those who resisted were shot. Nor is brutality in the Russian military confined to the battlefield. It is also deeply ingrained in its internal culture, particularly through the practice of dedovshchina — the institutionalized hazing and bullying of young recruits.”
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“When Moscow launched its full-scale attack on Ukraine in February 2022, this culture of Russian military violence was given a whole new canvas. In the Kyiv region alone, Ukrainian authorities and international organizations discovered over 1,100 civilian bodies, at least 458 in the suburb of Bucha. Many were found with hands tied behind their backs. Others bore signs of severe torture, broken bones, burn marks, and mutilation. …”
https://cepa.org/article/murderers-and-torturers-why-are-russian-troops-so-bestial/
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Prince of Wales Visits Estonia
(BBC | Postimees |EER | Reuters)
“Prince William’s two-day visit to the Baltic state began on Thursday with a 35-minute meeting with Estonian President Alar Karis where they discussed the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and met with young refugees at a school in Tallinn.”
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“On Friday, in a freezing cold, mud-churned military training area, the prince saw the soldiers and military equipment guarding Nato's eastern flank. The prince, in camouflage uniform, peering from a Challenger 2 tank and then an armoured fighting vehicle, was sending a signal about the UK's commitment to deter any aggression from Russia.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70eyg099j5o
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https://www.err.ee/1609638526/galerii-eestisse-saabus-prints-william
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prince-william-estonia-visit-russia-b2718687.html
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Estonia refuses to be invaded
By Silver Tambur, Estonian World
“Tallinn isn’t waiting for NATO to save it. … In an era when most European nations still struggle to meet the alliance’s 2% GDP defence spending target, Estonia just announced it will more than double that. Beginning in 2026, the Baltic state’s defence budget will soar past 5% of its GDP – an unprecedented military commitment for a nation of just 1.3 million people. The goal? To make any Russian invasion impossible.”
https://estonianworld.com/security/estonia-refuses-to-be-invaded/
How to spend half a billion euros: What could Estonia buy instead of HIMARS?
By Madis Hindre, ERR
“Even before the first HIMARS systems arrive in Estonia, the government must decide whether to purchase additional similar missile systems. The decision weighs factors such as speed, cost and allied relations, with options from the United States, Turkey, South Korea and an Israeli-German collaboration under consideration.”
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“This summer, when six HIMARS systems manufactured at Lockheed Martin's factory in the U.S. arrive in Estonia, the country's defense capabilities will take a significant leap forward. For the first time, the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) will be able to launch a 227-kilogram warhead up to 300 kilometers into the Russian rear.”
“Estonia hopes to put €1 billion of EU money toward defense.” - ERR
“Kaks miljardit eurot kaitsekuludeks - kui suur raha see on?” - ERR
“Estonia as a Hedgehog. How Is Tallinn Preparing to Deter Russia?” - ICDS
“Pevkur: briti vägede Eestist Ukrainasse saatmine ei ole laual.” - Postimees
“Britid võivad oma väed Ukraina rahuvalvemissiooni korral Eestist välja viia.” - ERR
“Õppuse läbiviimiseks suletakse ajutiselt Narva piiripunkt.” - Postimees
“Over 13,000 troops to participate in Estonia's largest military exercise, Siil, May 5 to 23.” - ERR
“Estonia needs to take defense spending to 6-7% of GDP.” - ERR
“Toomas Ilves on NATO peasekretäri peale pahane.” - Objektiiv
Michal: ilmselt tõusevad lähiaastatel kaitsekulud üle viie protsendi SKP-st
(ERR)
“Peaminister Kristen Michal rääkis, et kaitseväe juhataja sõjalise nõuande täielikuks realiseerimiseks ei piisa Eesti kaitsekulutuste tõstmisest viiele protsendile sisemajanduse koguproduktist (SKP) ning et lähiaastatel kasvavad kulutused veelgi. Kaitseminister Hanno Pevkur rääkis ERR-ile, et Eesti peab saama ka pikamaa õhutõrje ehk kaitse ballistiliste rakettide vastu.”
Estonia warns that Europe is going too slow to stop Putin
(The Telegraph)
“Margus Tsahkna said Tallinn was ready to play an “active role” in the so-called coalition of the willing, a UK-led initiative to give Ukraine security guarantees after a ceasefire. But he suggested that the Estonian government was frustrated with the pace of the talks on forming the coalition, which could station around 10,000 peacekeeping troops in Ukraine after the war has ended.”
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Record number of apartments are up for sale in Narva
By Jüri Nikolajev, ERR
“Rising district heating costs are forcing Narva residents to put empty apartments up for sale. Most of the properties in question are unrenovated apartments that no one wants to buy. Narva's real estate market currently has an oversupply … There are 600 apartments currently for sale in Narva.”
https://news.err.ee/1609637590/record-number-of-apartments-up-for-sale-in-narva
“Narvas on müügis rekordiliselt palju kortereid.” - ERR
Estonian Supreme Court rejects MPEÕK, Pühtitsa Convent appeals
(ERR)
“… against the Riigikogu's labeling the church's parent body a supporter of Russia's war of aggression on Ukraine. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now into its fourth year, brought the status of the Russian Orthodox Church in Estonia under scrutiny, given its parent organization is in effect a Kremlin tool.”
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“The complaint was jointly issued by the Russian Orthodox Pühtitsa Convent, also known as the Kuremäe Convent, located in Ida-Viru County. The Supreme Court decision effectively upholds a previous court ruling that dismissed the complaint.”
https://news.err.ee/1609634135/supreme-court-rejects-mpeok-puhtitsa-convent-appeals
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“Eesti Riigiteede liiklussagedus jätkas 2024. aastal kasvu.” - ERR
“Why is less Russian being taught at Estonian schools?” - Deutsche Welle
“The right to vote in local elections would be revoked for third-country nationals residing in Estonia.” - Riigikogu
“High-tech passive radar systems will be installed at Estonia’s border points.” - Hungary Today
“Balti kaitsevööndi valmimine hilineb Hanno Pevkuri käe all.” - Postimees
“Discussing the progress of Estonia’s nuclear energy program.” - NEA
“Opinion: Someone needs to be responsible for alleviating Estonia's population crisis.” - ERR
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Around the Baltic Sea
The Baltics Prepare for Russian Hybrid Attacks
By Marija Golubeva, CEPA
“Due to their location and history of occupation by their increasingly belligerent neighbor, the Baltic states are perhaps the most aware of the danger of hybrid attacks and, after Finland, the best-prepared to face Russia. The threats faced by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania include sabotage of their defense capacity and connectivity, such as damage to undersea cables, all types of cyberthreats and disinformation, and the weaponization of migration by Belarus, Russia’s proxy state. As Keir Giles, from Chatham House, points out, the pattern of Russia’s activities in Europe is “not only actual sabotage but also reconnaissance, probing, and testing in the physical and digital domains, with a focus on communications, logistics, and emergency preparedness.”
https://cepa.org/article/wide-awake-and-busy-the-baltics-prepare-for-russian-hybrid-attacks/
Baltic Sea ice is decreasing year-by-year
(ERR)
“When discussing how climate change impacts the Baltic Sea, marine scientist Tarmo Soomere says there are two aspects to consider. One is how climate change affects the marine environment and its functioning. The other is how changes in the Baltic Sea's coastlines indicate that the climate has changed.”
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“Over the past hundred years, the duration of ice coverage has shortened by nearly two months. … From a coastal perspective, it is important to consider how water levels, waves, and ice — or the lack thereof — interact. Soomere explained that the Baltic Sea is a young sea, just 10,000 years old in its current boundaries. This means that its coastlines are still developing rapidly."
https://news.err.ee/1609635185/baltic-sea-ice-is-decreasing-year-by-year
Püsiv jääkate jäi sooja talve tõttu Läänemerel tulemata
(Novaator)
“Möödunud talv oli keskmisest soojem ning kajastub see ka Läänemere jääoludes. Tehnikaülikoolis arendatud kaugseire kliimateenus annab täpsemalt aimu, millises ulatuses, kus ja kuidas see kajastub.”
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“Uue kliimateenuse andmete järgi jäi püsiv ja ulatuslik jääkate Läänemerel sel talvel tulemata. Merel algas jääteke keskmisest veidi hiljem, jaanuari alguses. Jääkatte ulatus kõikus tänavu 2019/2020 aasta miinimumi ning viimase 30-aasta keskmise vahel, jäädes alla 100,000 ruutkilomeetri, kattes vähem kui neljandiku Läänemere pindalast.”
https://novaator.err.ee/1609633382/pusiv-jaakate-jai-sooja-talve-tottu-laanemerel-tulemata
These six Baltic states could decide the future of Europe
By Edward Lucas, The Times
“The collapse of the Soviet empire in 1991 allowed six Baltic Sea countries (Poland, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) to join Nato and the European Union. They see that as normal. For Russians, a geopolitical aberration is long overdue for correction. This danger is not new, but it was long ignored. In 1997 Madeleine Albright, at the time the US secretary of state, said: “Europe is not safe unless the Baltic region is safe.”
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“On paper, regional security should be a doddle. The Nordic and Baltic countries, plus Poland, are far richer than Russia. They have high-tech weapons and stable political systems. They have unmatched potential to control the skies, sea and shorelines. But Russia has five advantages. First is geography. The Baltic states are exposed, connected to their allies by land only through the “Suwalki corridor”, the swan’s neck of territory that links Poland and Lithuania. Second, Russia has the initiative. It can choose when and where to attack. The allies must defend everything, all the time. …”
https://www.thetimes.com/culture/books/article/baltic-future-europe-oliver-moody-review-58drz2zlj
Poland, Baltic states inch closer to leaving antipersonnel mine treaty
(Euronews | Politico | Delfi)
“In a joint statement, the defence ministers of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland said they ‘unanimously recommend withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention’. The 1997 treaty — which prohibits the use, production and transfer of anti-personnel mines — has been ratified or acceded to by more than 160 countries. Russia has not joined the agreement, and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine has turned the war-torn country into the most mine-laden nation in the world, according to reports.”
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https://www.delfi.lt/en/politics/baltics-poland-announce-plans-to-leave-mine-ban-treaty-120094655
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“Nato to call for 30 % arms stockpile boost.” - Bloomberg/Helsinki Times
“Finnish police going on strike for first time in almost 50 years.” - Yle
“Lithuania eyes lessons from Finland on how to prepare its forces.” - LRT
“Why Norway sees Ukraine as its Arctic security shield.” - Euromaidan
“Finland: Fewer conscripts drop out of military training as motivation rises.” - Yle
“Swedish soldiers disciplined for misconduct in Latvia.” - Radio Sweden
“Don't let Russia divide US and Europe, Kaja Kallas says.” - Euronews
“Läti piirab kolme piiripunkti tegevust Venemaa ja Valgevene piiril.” - Postimees
“Drone coalition: Latvia’s ambitions to boost security and international image.” - Instytut Europy Środkowej
“Lithuania says Russian military intelligence behind 9. May Ikea arson attack in Vilnius.” - Euronews
“Why NATO Should Move Nuclear Weapons to Poland.” - National Interest
“The Latest Russian Missile, Oreshnik, Is Bad News for NATO.” - Foreign Policy
“How Europe Becomes The Military Power That The World Needs Now.” - ZEIT
“How to prepare for Putin? Heed our friends in the Baltics.” By Oliver Moody
“German paper FAZ: Things are not going well for Kaja Kallas.” - ERR
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Putin’s Forever War
Kremlin and Russian Propaganda Rejoice as U.S. President Guts Radio Free Europe and Voice of America
(Euronews | The Moscow Times)
“Moscow is elated by President Donald Trump’s moves to gut U.S.-funded media outlets Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Voice of America, high-ranking Russian officials and diplomats told The Moscow Times. … Founded by the U.S. during the Cold War to counter Soviet propaganda, RFE/RL was banned across the communist bloc, where regimes regularly jammed its signal. As press freedom in modern Russia has grown increasingly stifled under President Vladimir Putin, RFE/RL and VOA have again been deemed “enemy voices” as they were by Soviet leaders.”
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"Today is a holiday for me and my colleagues at RT and Sputnik. This is an awesome decision by Trump!” said Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the Kremlin-backed RT network and the Rossiya Segodnya news agency and a vocal cheerleader of Putin and the invasion of Ukraine. “We couldn’t shut them down, unfortunately, but America did so itself."
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“EU mulls funding Radio Free Europe after cuts.” - Radio Poland
“A muted Voice of America makes space for Russian and Chinese influence.” - France24
“For Russia’s Regional Journalism, RFE/RL’s Closure is a Catastrophe.” - The Moscow Times
“Dissolving RFE/RL and VoA is a Major Geopolitical Blunder.” - National Interest
“Vladimir Solovyov and Margarita Simonyan share their joy about events in America.” - Russian Media Monitor
“The Last Days at Voice of America.” - Columbia Journalism Review
Putin käskis Venemaa poolt okupeeritud aladel «ebaseaduslikult» elavatel ukrainlastel lahkuda
(Postimees)
“Venemaa autoritaarne riigipea Vladimir Putin kirjutas täna alla dekreedile, millega käsitakse Venemaa poolt okupeeritud Ukraina aladel «ebaseaduslikult» elavatel ukrainlastel 10. septembriks «Venemaa territooriumilt» lahkuda või «reguleerida oma õiguslikku staatust», vahendab The Kyiv Independent.”
Estonian analysis: Ukraine must inflict three times more casualties on Russia than Russia inflicts on Ukraine
By David Axe, Forbes
“In December 2023, the Estonian defense ministry concluded Ukraine could turn the tide of the Russia-Ukraine war by killing or maiming 100,000 Russians in 2024. But in fact, Ukrainian troops killed or badly wounded closer to 200,000 Russian troops last year—double what Tallinn assumed was necessary.”
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“In the Estonian theory of victory, Ukraine could defeat Russia by eliminating more well-trained troops than Russia’s military training system can replace, thus initiating a gradual military-wide collapse. … So why hasn’t the Russian army collapsed? The answer may be that it is collapsing—but very slowly. … Ukraine must degrade the Russian military faster than Russia degrades the Ukrainian military. At present, the casualty ratio favors Ukraine - but not nearly enough given Russia’s greater manpower reserves.”
U.S. President's Intelligence Cut Gave A Significant Momentum For Russian Troops in Kursk
(The Baltic Sentinel)
“US President Donald Trump used the scandalous 28. February Oval Office meeting with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a pretext to cut intelligence sharing with Ukraine. It aligned with the start of a significant Russian offensive push in Kursk. Accounts from multiple Ukrainian soldiers, both past and present combatants in the Kursk region, reveal the key factors behind the success of Russian forces around the city of Sudzha.”
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“… the early March decision by the Americans to halt the sharing of intelligence on Russian territory with Ukraine. ‘HIMARS (multiple-launch rocket systems) were operating constantly before that, but the moment the intelligence flow stopped, their effectiveness ceased immediately,' explained another Ukrainian soldier. 'We no longer had targets, and that was a huge advantage for the Russians. They exploited it to the fullest. They outplayed us."
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