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27 January, 2023





UK's Princess Anne visits Estonia  

(ERR)

“The UK's Princess Royal, Princess Anne, daughter of the late Queen Elizabeth II, met President Alar Karis on Tuesday during a working visit to Estonia.”

https://news.err.ee/1608862193/gallery-uk-s-princess-anne-visits-estonia





Princess Anne and Sir Tim Laurence visit UK troops in Estonia involved in NATO exercises

(Various sources)

“The Princess Royal and her husband, Vice Admiral Sir Timothy Laurence, visited The King’s Royal Hussars at TAPA Military Base in Estonia. The King’s Royal Hussars (KRH) is a Royal Armoured Corps regiment of the British Army to which the Princess has been Colonel-in-Chief since they formed in 1992. The regiment is part of Operation CABRIT, the codename for the UK’s deployment and its contribution to NATO’s enhanced Forward Presence.”

https://royalcentral.co.uk/uk/anne/princess-anne-visit-troops-in-estonia-involved-in-nato-exercises-186048/

https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/uk/lifestyle/a42684560/princess-anne-military-visit-estonia/

https://www.forces.net/royals/princess-anne-takes-tour-inside-challenger-2-battle-tank





Defence readiness exercise Okas (Quill)

(Eesti Valitsus | ERR)

“830 members of territorial defence units are expected to participate in the snap exercise. … 658 reservists from territorial defence units of the Pärnumaa, Saaremaa and Lääne districts, Territorial Defence Region West, Estonian Defence League, are ordered to participate in the exercise. In addition, 172 members of the Defence League are invited to the exercise by the commanders of districts.”

“There is no immediate security threat to Estonia.”

https://valitsus.ee/en/news/government-estonia-approved-defence-readiness-exercise-okas-territorial-defence-units

https://news.err.ee/1608863792/estonian-government-calls-okas-snap-exercise





“It is extremely important that President Putin does not win this war.” 

- NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg



____________


Thank you for all the kind emails and FB messages that came my way last week. I’m off of that powerful muscle relaxant and I was able to concentrate on this weeks’ newsletter. The messages were very much appreciated! - Aavo



EstoNews Blog:  https://estonewsoftheweek.blogspot.com/


EstoNews Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/EstoNews/


____________









Friday 27. January 2023



Putin plans new Ukraine push despite his losses. He is preparing for years of war

(Bloomberg)

“The Kremlin aims to demonstrate that its forces can regain the initiative after months of losing ground, putting pressure on Kyiv and its backers to agree to some kind of truce that leaves Russia in control of the territory it now occupies, according to officials, advisers and others familiar with the situation.”

"Even Putin can’t deny the weaknesses of the military that he’s spent decades building up after his troops lost more than half their initial gains in Ukraine, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t public. The persistent setbacks have led many in the Kremlin to be more realistic about their immediate ambitions, recognizing that even holding the current front line would be an achievement.”

“Putin is disappointed at how things are going but he isn’t ready to abandon his goals,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a political consultancy. “It just means that the route will be longer, more bloody and worse for everyone.” US and European intelligence officials question whether Russia has the resources for a major new offensive, even after mobilizing 300,000 additional troops last fall.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-27/russian-president-putin-plans-new-offensive-in-ukraine-as-he-girds-for-long-war





Bloomberg: Venemaa valmistub suurpealetungiks veebruaris või märtsis

(ERR | Delfi)

“Kremli allikate kinnitusel võib Venemaa püüda järgmist suuremat pealetungi Ukraina vastu veebruaris või märtsis, mis tähendab, et pealetungikatse proovitakse teha enne lääneriikide lubatud tankide Ukrainasse saabumist. USA ja Euroopa sõjaliste allikate sõnul võib praegune sõda kesta aastaid.”

https://www.err.ee/1608866237/bloomberg-venemaa-valmistub-suurpealetungiks-veebruaris-voi-martsis

https://www.delfi.ee/artikkel/120134826/kremli-allikad-venemaa-alustab-veebruaris-voi-martsis-suurpealetungi-et-soda-ukrainas-voita



“Venemaa võib täppismoonarünnakuid korraldada veel üle poole aasta.” - ERR





International media interest in Estonia has not waned

(ERR)

“Estonia's loud international voice is an increasingly important part of security. This is how Estonia convinces its allies to further support Ukraine as well as increase their presence here. For foreign countries to be interested in Estonia, however, it needs robust steps and messages — not tepid talking points, Media Adviser to the Government Helen Rits told ERR.”

"On a typical, quieter day, there are three or four inquiries," Rits said. "If the prime minister specifically has said something more important, or Estonia has done something more important, then 20-30 inquiries is indeed perfectly normal."

https://news.err.ee/1608865628/officials-major-foreign-interest-in-estonia-hasn-t-waned



“Välismaa suur huvi Eesti vastu vaibunud ei ole.” - ERR





Estonia ferry was not seaworthy - new probe reveals

(Estonian World | Yle | Reuters)

“It is the first time investigators have suggested the vessel was actually not seaworthy when it set off from Tallinn that stormy evening in late Sept. 1994.”

https://estonianworld.com/life/an-intermediate-report-the-ferry-estonia-was-not-seaworthy/

https://yle.fi/a/74-20014245

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/new-probe-into-estonia-ferry-sinking-reveals-construction-flaws-officials-2023-01-23/





The training area at Nursipalu, Võrumaa, will be roughly tripled in size

(ERR)

“The planned Nursipalu enlargement, which would see an existing training area triple in size to around 9,000 ha, is being done with the EDF and Estonia's defense in mind, rather than specifically for NATO allies.”

https://news.err.ee/1608866162/government-to-discuss-moving-forward-with-nursipalu-enlargement-next-week



“Valitsus arutab Nursipalu laiendamist uuel nädalal.” - ERR


“RMK peatab Nursipalu aladel lageraied.” - ERR





Venemaa andis Läti suursaadikule kaks nädalat riigist lahkumiseks

(Postimees)

“… ning süüdistas seda Balti riiki ‘täielikus russofoobias’.”

https://maailm.postimees.ee/7700555/venemaa-andis-lati-suursaadikule-kaks-nadalat-riigist-lahkumiseks





Niinistö: "Serious discussion" with Turkey’s Erdoğan lies ahead

(Yle)

“Finnish President Sauli Niinistö said that he has kept his counsel on the issue so as "not to give the impression that we are begging for something”. He also noted that Turkey's ratification of Finland's membership application is unlikely to happen until after the Turkish parliamentary and presidential elections, scheduled for 14 May. "It is beginning to look very much as if the Turkish presidential elections will take precedence and not much will happen before then," Niinistö said.”

https://yle.fi/a/74-20015023



“Sweden's "worst nightmare" — being left outside the Nato military alliance — could also be bad news for Finland.” - Yle 


“We believe they are ready: US on Sweden, Finland candidacy for NATO.” - Helsinki Times





European Commission opens 5 infringement procedures against Estonia

(ERR)

“… awaiting action on improving air quality, protecting Natura 200 sites, preventing the dissemination of terrorist online content and sexual abuse of children, and restricting hate speech.”

https://news.err.ee/1608864740/european-commission-opens-5-infringement-procedures-against-estonia





Estonia Requests German permission to export cluster munitions (!) to Ukraine

(ERR | Yahoo News)

“Over 100 countries have signed the convention that prohibits the use of this kind of artillery shells, but neither Estonia nor Ukraine were among them. Berlin would have to give a go-ahead because the cluster shells Estonian armed forces have at their disposal were procured from Germany, which has since ceased their production. “We'll have to see what agreements between our forces we reach with Ukraine,” Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said.”

https://news.err.ee/1608864767/estonia-weighing-giving-ukraine-cluster-munitions

https://news.yahoo.com/estonia-requests-german-permission-export-023200152.html





Volunteers fear for migrants’ lives at Lithuanian border

(LRT)

“Some have been missing for months.”

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1876549/some-have-been-missing-for-months-volunteers-fear-for-migrants-lives-at-lithuanian-border





Tanks, timing and training: Ukraine’s new battlefield challenges

(Politico Europe)

“Western battle tanks could be a game changer, but only if there is proper training and if they arrive soon.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-volodymyr-zelenskyy-vladimir-putin-germany-us-tanks-timing-and-training-ukraines-new-battlefield-challenges/







Thursday 26. January



‘The Tallinn Pledge’ For Ukraine

(Reuters | ERR | Coffee or Die)

“On Jan. 19, representatives from nine NATO countries — not including the US — gathered at Tapa army base in Estonia and pledged “the delivery of an unprecedented set of donations including main battle tanks, heavy artillery, air defense, ammunition, and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine’s defense.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/european-states-estonia-pledge-weapons-ukraine-2023-01-19/

https://www.coffeeordie.com/tallinn-pledge-nato

https://news.err.ee/1608856520/estonia-uk-nine-other-countries-meet-pledge-more-military-aid-to-ukraine



“Fmr. Estonian President on Estonia’s 'more aid faster' approach to Ukraine.” - MSNBC


“Joint Statement – The Tallinn Pledge.” - UK Gov. - updated 23. Jan





Mighty Baltics Lead the NATO Pack

By Marija Golubeva and Francis Harris

(CEPA)

“It is too rarely mentioned that some European alliance members are giving the greatest amount of aid.”

https://cepa.org/article/mighty-baltics-lead-the-nato-pack-with-aid-to-ukraine/





Erdogan says Sweden should not expect support for NATO bid after Quran burning

(Radio Sweden)

“Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has condemned the burning of a Quran during a protest outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm.”

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/erdogan-says-sweden-should-not-expect-support-for-nato-bid-after-quran-burning



“Türgi katkestas kolmepoolsed kõnelused Soome ja Rootsi NATO-liikmesuse üle.” - ERR


“Hundreds Protest In Afghan City Against Koran Burning In Sweden.” - RFERL


“Turkey Says It's 'Meaningless' To Restore NATO Dialogue With Sweden, Finland.” - RFERL


“Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson urged everyone in Sweden to realize how serious the current security situation is.” - Radio Sweden


“Swedish society does not see Turkey's objections to its membership in NATO as an insurmountable obstacle.” - The Baltic Times


“Claim: Russian military intelligence operation in Sweden blocking NATO membership bid.” - Lansing Institute





Finland calls for a 'time-out' in heated NATO talks with Turkey

(BBC)

“A series of controversial protests in Sweden, including the burning of a Quran, have angered Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in recent days. As Turkey is already a member of Nato, it can block applications to join. Mr Haavisto said that the demonstrations had put a "brake on the progress" on negotiations.”

“Turkey said the Swedish government's decision not to prevent Rasmus Paludan, a politician from the Danish far-right Stram Kurs (Hard Line) party, from burning a copy of Islam's holy book in public was "completely unacceptable”. Talks between the countries have stalled over a number of issues - including Turkey's demands that the Nordic nations deport those it views as terrorists - and look to be on hold until after Turkish elections in mid-May.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64261617



“With Sweden’s bid stalled, Finland may decide to go alone.” - Foreign Policy


“Podcast: Will Finland join Nato without Sweden?” - Yle


“Sweden-Turkey Spat Means Finland Might Take Unilateral Route.” - Spiegel


“Karis reiterates country's support for Finland NATO accession.” - ERR


“Turkey cancels Finland, Sweden meeting after Stockholm protest.” - Yle


“Anti-Turkey protesters toying with Finland and Sweden's security.” - Yle


“Finnish President Niinistö visits Ukraine.” - Helsinki Times


“Interview: Prime Minister Sanna Marin.” - MSN/CNN


“Turkish anger at Sweden over Qur'an burning complicates Finland's NATO bid.” - CBC





Denmark: An important part of ensuring defense in Baltic Sea area

(Baltic Times)

“… Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur said at a meeting with his Danish counterpart Jakob Ellemann-Jensen. … Denmark has also decided to send a significant part of its artillery capability to Ukraine, a total of 19 CAESAR self-propelled howitzers.”

https://www.baltictimes.com/estonian_defmin__denmark_important_part_of_ensuring_defense_in_baltic_sea_area/



“Tapale tankid toonud Taanil ei jagu neid Ukrainale annetamiseks.” - Postimees


“Denmark calls for mandatory military service for women.” - The Straits Times





Ameerikas sündinud ja kasvanud Karl räägib puhtalt eesti keelt ja juhib Chicago Eesti kooli

(Eesti Päevaleht - video)

“Konstantin Pätsi adjutandi lapselaps on Chicagos asuva Eesti kooli direktor. Noormehe laitmatu eesti keele järgi ei oskaks arvatagi, et ta pole päevagi Eestis elanud.”

https://epl.delfi.ee/artikkel/120132794/eestlased-usas-ameerikas-sundinud-ja-kasvanud-karl-raagib-puhtalt-eesti-keelt-ja-juhib-eesti-kooli





Time Is on Ukraine’s Side, Not Russia’s

By Phillips Payson O’Brien

(The Atlantic, 14. Jan)

“Many NATO leaders now believe not only that Ukraine can outlast the Russian invaders but also that it must. Anything but a complete Ukrainian victory will offer some validation for depraved Russian fighting tactics. It would encourage Putin to test the resolve of other nations that share borders with Russia or were once under Soviet domination. In recent days Norway, Finland, the Baltic states, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia have all promised continued support for Ukraine. These donors do not believe that NATO membership alone will protect them from Russian military interference; their security now hinges on Putin’s Russia being vanquished.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/01/russia-ukraine-weapon-production-nato-supply/672719/





Saksamaa saadab Ukrainale 14 tanki

(ERR)

“Berliin lubas ka teistel riikidel varustada Ukrainat Leopard 2 tankidega.”

https://www.err.ee/1608862136/saksamaa-saadab-ukrainale-14-leopard-2-tanki



“Kaitseekspertide hinnangul on Ukrainal plaan erinevate tankide kasutamiseks.” - ERR


“USA saadab Ukrainale 31 Abramsi tanki.” - ERR





The West finally commits tanks to Ukraine. It took a lot of arm-twisting

(Yahoo News)

“The story of how the U.S. and its allies coaxed, finessed and convinced the Germans to release the Leopards.”

https://news.yahoo.com/us-germany-tanks-ukraine-russia-abrams-leopards-015218778.html



“Germany’s Ukraine tank decision.” - BBC


“Why the US flipped on sending tanks to Ukraine.” - AP


“Ukraine faces logistics hurdles ahead of tank deliveries.” - Washington Post


“European allies will send about 80 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.” - Politico


“Finland to take part in international effort to deliver tanks to Ukraine.” - Helsinki Times





This Is What M1 Abrams Tanks Will Bring To The Fight In Ukraine

(The Drive | Washington Post)

“The Abrams has encountered Russian-supplied tanks going back to Operation Desert Storm in 1991.”

“The battles such as 73 Easting, Battle of Medina Ridge, Battle of Norfolk, and Battle of Kuwait International Airport gives you a good example of what the Abrams is capable of doing to Russian tanks, up to at least back then the T-72, which is currently used in Ukraine, along with the older T-64.”

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/this-is-what-m1-abrams-tanks-will-bring-to-the-fight-in-ukraine

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/25/m1-abrams-tanks-ukraine/



“Russian Soldiers Ask: 'We Have Nothing To Fight With. Why Should We Go Up Against Tanks With Only Machine Guns?” - RFERL


“Russia plays down West’s move on tanks.” - AP


“Putin Lackeys Lose Their Minds Over Ukraine Getting Battle Tanks.” - Daily Beast


“'Toothless' Leopards and 'battered' Abrams: Russian TV mocks Nato tanks promised to Ukraine.” - The Guardian


“US Abrams tanks need separate supply chain on Ukraine's frontline.” - Forces Net





"Esimene stuudio": Helme ja Kallas vaidlesid julgeoleku üle

(ERR)

“Reformierakonna juht Kaja Kallas ja Eesti Konservatiivse Rahvaerakonna (EKRE) esimees Martin Helme vaidlesid neljapäeva õhtul ETV saates "Esimene stuudio" julgeolekuteemadel.”

https://www.err.ee/1608865025/esimene-stuudio-helme-ja-kallas-vaidlesid-julgeoleku-ule








Wednesday 25. January



Estonia Sending All Of Its 155-mm Howitzers to Ukraine

(The Defense Post)

“The package, previously reported to be worth 113 million euros ($122 million), is expected to boost Kyiv’s defense capabilities amid continuing Russian aggression.”

“Estonia currently operates 24 NATO standard FH-70 towed howitzers. Apart from the howitzers, Tallinn will send thousands of 155-mm artillery shells and hundreds of Karl-Gustaf anti-tank grenade launchers.”

“Estonia’s defense minister Hanno Pevkur assured its people that the decision to send its 24 FH-70s to Ukraine would not affect the country’s national defense because Tallinn is transitioning to K9 self-propelled howitzers produced by South Korea.”

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/01/24/estonia-sending-howitzers-ukraine/



“Estonia buys 12 more howitzers amid ‘lessons from Ukraine’.” - Defense News


“USS Roosevelt arrives in Tallinn, Estonia.” - U.S. Navy press release


“The UK deploys Chinook helicopters to Estonia.” - Estonian World


“Estonian military support to Ukraine to increase to more than 1% GDP.” - ERR





Russia, Estonia expel ambassadors amid ‘destroyed’ relations

(AP | ERR | Reuters | AlJazeera | Deutsche Welle)

“Russia and Estonia on Monday were expelling the ambassadors from each other’s countries in a tit-for-tat move, saying that their diplomatic missions will be headed by charges d’affaires as relations between the countries sank to a new low over Ukraine. … The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned Estonian Ambassador Margus Laidre and ordered him to leave the country by Feb. 7.”

“The statement issued by the ministry said that Estonia’s diplomatic representation from now on will be downgraded to a charge d’affaires that heads the European Union country’s mission in Moscow. The ministry said that the move was made in retaliation for Estonia’s “new unfriendly step to radically reduce the size of the Russian Embassy in Tallinn.”

https://apnews.com/article/estonia-tallinn-business-67182f99b4eaae30d1fd41d12da8fa48

https://news.err.ee/1608859871/russia-to-expel-estonian-ambassador

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-downgrades-relations-with-nato-member-estonia-expels-envoy-2023-01-23/

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/23/moscow-expels-estonian-envoy-downgrades-ties

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-estonia-expel-ambassadors-amid-destroyed-relations/a-64488424





Levada küsitluse kohaselt peavad venelased Balti riike Venemaale ohtlikeks

(ERR)

“Venemaa elanikud hindavad oma riigi suhteid Eesti ning Läti ja Leeduga keskmisest negatiivsemaks ja peavad neid Venemaa suhtes vaenulikeks ja ohtlikeks maadeks. Eesti suhtes on venelaste hoiakud siiski pisut positiivsemad kui Läti ja Leedu suhtes, selgub Moskvas tegutseva Levada keskuse korraldatud arvamusuuringust, mille tellis Eesti välisministeerium.”

https://www.err.ee/1608862592/levada-kusitluse-kohaselt-peavad-venelased-balti-riike-venemaale-ohtlikeks





Survey claims that Russians see the Baltic states as a threat

(BNN | LRT)

“A survey commissioned by the Foreign Ministry of Estonia and conducted by the independent organization Levada Center shows that Russian citizens consider Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia to be hostile countries.”

“Respondents to the survey were asked about Russia’s relations with its western neighbors, Belarus received the most positive rating, while Finland and Sweden remained roughly in the middle of the rating scale. Regarding Estonia, in different age groups and also depending on the place of residence, the opinion was a little different, but in any case, it was more inclined to a negative assessment.”
https://bnn-news.com/survey-russians-see-the-baltic-states-as-a-threat-242369

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1874870/russians-consider-baltics-a-threat-survey



“Rising diplomatic tensions as Baltic states clash with Moscow over Ukraine.” - MSN


“Estonia and Latvia remove Russian ambassadors as tensions rise.” - Politico Europe


“Russia and Russians – a diplomat’s insights.” - Eesti Elu, subscription





Lithuania-Belarus border: 

'There are bodies in the forest’

(Euronews)

“Sienos Grupe, a Lithuanian humanitarian organisation, has collected a list of around 30 people, whose families lost contact with them on Europe’s eastern frontier. … Known as Europe’s forgotten migration crisis, Lithuania, Poland and Belarus have pushed migrants back and forth across each other’s frontiers since 2020, in a situation likened to ping-pong. Vilnius and Brussels accuse Minsk of weaponising migration -– inundating the EU’s border with migrants as a form of hybrid warfare – while Lithuanian border guards have been repeatedly accused of violently pushing migrants back into Belarus.”

“In the meantime, people suffer.”

https://www.euronews.com/2023/01/25/there-are-bodies-in-the-forest-missing-migrants-worry-activists-on-lithuania-belarus-borde





Estonia declares 2023 the Year of the Sauna

By Sten Hankewitz

(Estonian World)

“… there will be events throughout the year, organised by the Estonian Rural Tourism Organisation, to celebrate the country’s rich sauna culture; the European Sauna Marathon is back following a two-year pandemic break.”

https://estonianworld.com/life/estonia-declares-2023-the-year-of-the-sauna-the-sauna-marathon-is-back/





Eesti kuulutas 2023. aasta sauna-aastaks

(Järva Teataja, 2. jaanuar)

“Maalehe päringul ning Ehitusregistri andmetel on Eestis ~100,100 sauna. Seega keskmiselt on Eestimaal ühe sauna kohta 13,3 elanikku. Kõige enam on saunasid Harjumaal, kokku 47,700, järgnevad Tartumaa 16,000 ja Pärnumaa 8,600 saunaga. Saun on olnud eestlaste põhiõigus.”

https://jarvateataja.postimees.ee/7682099/2023-on-eestis-sauna-aasta



“Sauna-aasta 2023.” - Eesti Maaturismi Ühing


“Estonia boosts Ukrainian soldiers’ morale with mobile sauna.” - The Mayor


“European Sauna Marathon returns to Estonia after two-year break.” - ERR





Movie Review: ’Smoke Sauna Sisterhood’

(Screen Daily)

“Director: Anna Hints. Estonia. 2022. 89 minutes.”

“Set amidst changing seasons of sunny summers and icy winters, the film explores a phenomenon steeped in ritual and tradition. Leaves are gathered and softened to create the brooms that are used to whack bodies, stimulate blood flow and remove toxins. Salt is rubbed into the flesh. The women break into song and incantation seeking to “sweat out all the pain, sweat out all the fear”. The cabin is sometimes used to smoke meats that are then consumed at their communal gatherings.”

“Director Anna Hints has clearly developed a a strong bond of trust with the women. Few names are mentioned, some faces are never seen, but there is no sense of an outsider looking in, instead a feeling of someone in harmony with her subject. …”

https://www.screendaily.com/reviews/smoke-sauna-sisterhood-sundance-review/5177764.article



“Movie Review: Intimate Estonian Documentary ‘Smoke Sauna Sisterhood’.” - Paste Magazine


“Interview: Anna Hints, Director of ‘Smoke Sauna Sisterhood’.” - Cineuropa








- Putin’s War -



Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment - 26. Jan.

(ISW)

“Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on January 26.”

“A recent altercation between Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and former Russian officer Igor Girkin is exposing a new domain for competition among Russian nationalist groups for political influence in Russia.”

“Putin continued his campaign against critical and opposition voices by cracking down on several major opposition media outlets.”

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-26-2023





The Political Considerations Behind Russia’s Military Command Chaos

(Jamestown Org.)

“All these turbulent appointments demonstrate that the Kremlin embodies a lack of trust in its own military generals and, tries to delegate responsibility for disastrous decisions in Ukraine directly to them. Meanwhile, this command chaos also demonstrates how the last generation of Soviet officers appeared to be unprepared for modern conventional warfare. Being mostly young lieutenants and captains, these officials decided to stay in military service during the 1990s and suffered from the lack of training, temporary absence of salaries, low standards of living and fought in the bloody Chechen wars, as their colleagues started new careers. Their education is mostly limited to experience during the war in Afghanistan and their own professional development. And besides the five-day war against Georgia in 2008, their tactical expertise is limited to the asymmetric campaigns in Chechnya, Ukraine (2014–2015) and Syria. Thus, their ability to “survive” more than two decades of President Vladimir Putin’s governance means they prioritize total personal political loyalty, indoctrination and even resentment toward Soviet practices, rather than developing real professional competences. Even so, the Kremlin continues to doubt the political loyalty of its military generals.”

https://jamestown.org/program/the-political-considerations-behind-russias-military-command-chaos/





Is there hope for Russia after Putin?

By Mark Galeotti

(Engelsberg Ideas)

“Quite how and when Vladimir Putin will lose power is unclear, but the inevitable event will offer Russia another opportunity to break with its Soviet past.”

“It is perhaps a mark of Vladimir Putin’s apparent endurance — after 22 years directly and indirectly ruling Russia — that there is such an appetite for claims of his imminent departure. He has blood cancer or pancreatic cancer, and will be dead within six months (we’ve been hearing such tales for years now). He will shortly be toppled by a palace coup. He is about to anoint a successor. And yet he remains stubbornly in place.”

“Nonetheless, he is now 70 years old, is dogged by persistent suggestions of health issues (if not necessarily the fatal ones so often suggested), and perhaps most importantly, has dragged Russia into a disastrous war that will define its relationship with itself and the outside world for at least a generation. While it is impossible meaningfully to predict quite when and how Putin will leave office, the only certainty is that he will, somehow and some day. What then, though?”

https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/is-there-hope-for-russia-after-putin/





Russia’s Fifth Column in Ukraine Is Alive and Well

(Foreign Policy)

“A year after the invasion, Ukraine is riddled with Russian collaborators and sympathizers.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/17/russia-ukraine-war-collaborators-sympathizers-putin/





A Russian graveyard reveals Wagner’s prisoner army

(Reuters)

“A rapidly expanding cemetery in a southern Russian village offers insight into the convicts who are fighting - and dying - for the secretive mercenary army of Wagner Group.”

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-graves-wagner/



“Bipartisan reps introduce bill to designate Russia’s Wagner Group as foreign terrorists.” - The Hill





Fear and Frustration in Moscow as Air Defense Systems Deployed

(The Moscow Times)

“At least five anti-aircraft missile systems have been spotted across Moscow in recent weeks, appearing in parks and on top of buildings as the Ukraine war — now in its 11th month — creeps closer to the Russian capital.”

“They include what looks to be a Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air system on the roof of the Defense Ministry headquarters a few kilometers from the Kremlin and a S-400 anti-aircraft system near the Timiryazevskaya metro station in the north of the capital. The installation of these systems amid fears that Ukraine, supplied with advanced weaponry from its Western allies, could be capable of targeting Moscow.”

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/01/24/fear-and-frustration-in-moscow-as-air-defense-systems-deployed-a80027





The Russian army in 2023

By Pavel Luzin

(Riddle)

"The Kremlin is sparing no effort to at least partially restore the capability of its armed forces, which continue to shrink amidst heavy fighting. In recent months, neither the large-scale enlistment of prisoners, nor mass conscription, nor supplies of Iranian-made drones, nor command reshuffles coupled with nuclear blackmail have enabled Russia to turn the tide of war in its favour or improve its foreign policy standing.”

“Nevertheless, the Russian authorities clearly intend to continue the war at any cost in order to at least improve their foreign policy status. … By the end of 2023, the Russian command expects to have 521,000 contract soldiers, ‘taking into account the replacement of draftees in the groups of troops and the manning of new formations’.”

“… we can cautiously assume that an army of 1.5 million soldiers is a bureaucratic fantasy designed to secure, among other things, increased war-related salaries paid to soldiers and to mask the total amount of compensation paid to the wounded and the families of those killed, which would otherwise reveal the real death toll to society.”

https://ridl.io/the-russian-army-in-2023/




Opinion: Germany’s Leopard-2 Tanks Will Help Crush Russia

(The National Interest)

“The German decision to send tanks to Ukraine is a turning point. It is now clear that Vladimir Putin signed the death warrant of his regime in invading Ukraine.”

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/germany’s-leopard-2-tanks-will-help-crush-russia-206149



“First Leopards Will Arrive To Ukraine In 3 Months.” - Ukrainian News


“Putin Lackeys Lose Their Minds Over Ukraine Getting Battle Tanks.” - The Daily Beast


“U.S. will supply M1 tanks to Ukraine, as Germany approves Leopards.” - Washington Post


“The M1 Abrams Is the Right Tank for the Job in Ukraine.” - Foreign Policy


“Swarm of Tanks Is Just the Start of Putin’s New Nightmare.” - The Dail;y Beast




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