The ‘Gray Zone’ Comes to Russia   

By Anna Nemtsova, The Atlantic

“Last week, civilians in Russia experienced something new—something Chechens, Georgians, Syrians, Ukrainians, and other civilians in the path of Russia’s military have known about for decades. After Russian tanks withdraw and shelling stops, Moscow holds certain hot spots in stasis. They become “gray zones”: neither at war nor fully at peace, wrecked by heavy artillery, psychologically traumatized and economically ruined, under Russia’s boot but subject to its neglect.”

—

“Now, for the first time in many decades, a swath of Russia—including not only Kursk but other regions near Russia’s border with Ukraine, such as Rostov, Belgorod, Voronezh, and Krasnodar—could become a gray zone, a functional part of no country, controlled and punished by Russia’s adversary. And there is nothing like experiencing something for oneself to concentrate the mind.”

—

“If there is a civil society in Russia, I hope they can see in real life what it feels like when you have no border left - it’s being demarcated by a foreign state right in front of their eyes, as it was in Ukraine in 2014.” - Journalist Inna Varenytsa

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/08/gray-zone-comes-to-russia-ukraine-war/679452/

More Ukraine articles are towards 

the end of the newsletter

Venemaal on raskusi Kurskisse võitlema saadetud kirju seltskonna juhtimisega

(ERR)

“Venemaa saadab Kurski oblastisse Ukrainat takistama kirju seltskonna oma armeest ja muudest jõustruktuuridest, mis omakorda tekitab probleeme nende juhtimisel … Sotsiaalmeediakanalid levitavad pilte vangi langenud Vene ajateenijatest. Ajateenijate vanemad on ajakirjanikele rääkinud puuduliku väljaõppega noorsõdurite saatmisest Kurski ja side katkemisest nendega. Selle taustal ei tundu veenvad Vene meedia videod tehnika veost läbimurdepiirkonda. Tekib küsimus, kas Vene väed suudavad Ukraina vägesid peatada.”

https://www.err.ee/1609427209/rebo-venemaal-on-raskusi-kurskisse-voitlema-saadetud-kirju-seltskonna-juhtimisega

“Ukrainlased on võtnud Kurski oblastis vangi väga kõrge väärtusega ohvitsere.” -  Postimees Arvamus

“Ukrainas tabati korrumpeerunud sõjakomissarid.” - Postimees

“Venemaa piirist, hirmust ja trotsist: Keegi ei aja meid siit minema.” - WSJ

“Arvamus: Operatsioon Kurski oblastis murendab venelaste usku enda valitsejatesse.” - Postimees

“Zelenski: lubage mul kasutada Briti rakette Putini võimu lõpetamiseks.” - ERR

“Putin peab hakkama pommitama Venemaad.” - Postimees

“Ukraina sõdurid kasutavad Kurskis lääneriikide tanke ja soomukeid.” - ERR

“Rainer Saks: jääb mulje, et ukrainlased ei kavatsegi Venemaa territooriumilt lahkuda.” - Postimees TV

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Kallase uus ametikoht avab EL-is rohkem võimalusi ka teistele eestlastele

(ERR)

“Kaja Kallase tõusmine Euroopa Liidu välispoliitikajuhiks annab Eestile võimaluse saada rohkem oma inimesi tööle ka Euroopa Komisjoni teiste liikmete kabinettidesse.”

https://www.err.ee/1609426534/kallase-uus-ametikoht-avab-el-is-rohkem-voimalusi-ka-teistele-eestlastele

Liitlaste mehitamata õhuvahendid teevad augustis Lääne-Eesti kohal treeninglende

(Maaleht)

“Alates neljapäevast, 15. augustist kuni kuu lõpuni teevad Ühendkuningriigi relvajõud õppelende Pärnu ja Lääne-Eesti kohal mehitamata õhuvahenditega Watchkeeper.”

https://maaleht.delfi.ee/artikkel/120314937/liitlaste-mehitamata-ohuvahendid-teevad-augustis-laane-eesti-kohal-treeninglende

Juulikuu tormid räsisid karmilt Lõuna-Eesti põlde

(Maaelu)

“Sademed jaotusid ebaühtlaselt ja tulid maha hoovihmadena koos tugeva tuulega, põhjustades viljade lamandumist. Eriti said kannatada Lõuna-Eesti põllud.”

https://maaelu.postimees.ee/8070547/juulikuu-tormid-rasisid-karmilt-louna-eesti-polde

“Tamula järv Võrus tõusis üle kallaste.” - ERR

“Amet otsib viise Eesti taimi ohustavate võõraste ilutaimede hävitamiseks.” - ERR

“Kas Eesti suudab murda tunnustatud veinimaade sekka?” - Maaelu

“Talirapsi kasvatamine on muutunud keeruliseks.” - ERR

“Arktikas võib lõhekda mürgine elvahõbedapomm.” - Postimees

Estonia setting out framework for nature protection of forests

(The Baltic Times)

“One of the key proposals in the bills is to ensure state-level protection for 30 % of the country's land area. This target serves both as a goal to strive for and a limit that should not be exceeded. Currently, more than 28 % of Estonia's land area is protected in some form. This includes  protected areas and national parks -- about 20.8 % of the land area -- as well as habitats for protected category I or II species, coastal and shoreline protected zones, and protected areas under planning, such as the not yet officially endorsed expansion of the Alutaguse National Park, where restrictions have applied already for a long time.”

http://www.baltictimes.com/estonia_setting_out_framework_for_nature_protection__sustainable_management_of_forests/

“Seaduseelnõud suunavad veel rohkem metsa raiehuviliste rüppe.” - Ajakirjanik Űlle Harju, Postimees

Estonian Politics: The conservative opposition wing is getting crowded

(The Baltic Times)

“The Party of Nationalists and Conservatives of Estonia (ERK), created by former members of the Estonian Conservative People's Party (EKRE), is the second party on the Estonian party landscape with the word "conservative" in its name. Notably, 345 of the 546 registered members of the new party are former members of EKRE.”

https://www.baltictimes.com/postimees__it_s_getting_crowded_on_the_conservative_opposition_wing_in_estonia/

Estonian PM: Too soon to comment on damaged Balticconnector 

(Yle)

“On Monday, it was reported that China admitted to a Chinese-flagged cargo vessel's role in damaging the Balticconnector pipeline last year. … Estonia’s new Prime Minister, Kristen Michal made the comments in Helsinki at a joint press conference with Finnish PM Petteri Orpo (NCP), on the second day of a two-day visit to Finland — his first visit abroad as prime minister.”

https://yle.fi/a/74-20104917

“Beijing admits Hong Kong-flagged ship destroyed key Baltic gas pipeline ‘by accident’.” - South China Morning Post

“Estonian and Finnish investigators have said that the Chinese report does not qualify as official evidence.” - RFERL

Around the Baltic Sea

“Finnish, Estonian PMs focus security, bilateral ties.” - Daily Finland

“Helsingis ja Uusimaal võib töö kaotada 990 tervishoiutöötajat.” - ERR

“Estonia's student satellite burns up after four years in orbit.” - Postimees

“Oslo võitleb Norra krooni "selgitamatu" langusega.” - ERR

“Lithuania says Russia moving troops from Kaliningrad to Kursk.” - DW

“Vandals Splatter Paint on Lithuanian Embassy in Moscow.” - Moscow Times

“Poola allkirjastas lepingu 96 USA helikopteri Apache ostmiseks.” - ERR

“Finland's unemployment rate of 8.4 % is among the worst in EU.” - Yle

“More people leaving Sweden than migrating to Sweden.” - Radio Sweden

“Swedish citizenship granted to over 33,600 Foreigners.” - Schengen News

"Finnish authorities intensify efforts to prevent oil spill from WWII Baltic Sea shipwreck.” - Helsinki Times

“Filming on a major Hollywood TV project for Paramount+ featuring Michael Fassbender and Richard Gere starts in Estonia next month.” - ERR

“Travel: 36 Hours in Helsinki.”  - New York Times

Interview: Former Chief of Defense of Poland, General Rajmund T. Andrzejczak

“The Former Polish Defense Chief Advocates 

for Proactive Self-Defense in the Baltic Region.”

By Meelis Oidsalu 

(The Baltic Sentinel)

“In this environment a more proactive approach is essential. We need to send a clear message to Russia that any concentration of forces near the Polish or Estonian border will be met with swift military response, targeting their logistics and critical infrastructure. Some may view my stance as aggressive, but it is crucial to continue translating military strategy into political terms.”

—

“I appreciate what I see in Estonia—social acceptance, awareness, resilience, and a strong voluntary reserve component like the Defense League. These factors are hard to measure physically but are crucial for effective defense. Estonia exemplifies dedication to national defense and a deep understanding of the current geopolitical situation.”

https://balticsentinel.eu/8073544/strategic-outbrief-former-polish-defense-chief-advocates-for-proactive-self-defense-in-the-baltic-region

- Ukraine Attacks Russia -

Russian elites expected Ukraine’s incursion to end within days. Now they’re reportedly beginning to panic

(Meduza)

“Russian politicians and officials are very alarmed by Ukraine’s cross-border incursion, according to Verstka (an independent media outlet) sources. A source from the Moscow Mayor’s Office told journalists that panic is growing among his colleagues. He compared the situation to the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. “That also seemed like it wouldn’t last long — but it turned out to be a long-term thing,” the source said. Initially, Moscow officials believed Russian forces could end the attack in “two or three days, or a week at most,” but this proved false; the incursion is now in its second week.”

—

"In the first few days of the offensive, the source said, the lives of the city’s political elite “didn’t change much” and the Kursk region wasn’t a major conversation topic. But on August 8 and 9, they said, “we got scared.” 

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/08/15/the-special-military-operation-just-got-extended

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15, 2024

(ISW)

“Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continued advancing in some areas in Kursk Oblast amid a generally slower tempo of Ukrainian operations in the area.”

—

“Russian forces are maintaining their relatively high offensive tempo in Donetsk Oblast, demonstrating that the Russian military command continues to prioritize advances in eastern Ukraine even as Ukraine is pressuring Russian forces within Kursk Oblast.”

—

“The delayed establishment of a complicated Russian C2 structure in Kursk Oblast continues to highlight the fact that the Kremlin failed to plan for the possibility of a significant Ukrainian incursion into Russia.”

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-15-2024

Why Aren’t Russians Demanding War to Drive Ukrainian Forces Out?

By Paul Goble

“… the Ukrainian advance into Russia’s Kursk Oblast has many interesting aspects but perhaps the most intriguing of these is that “it turned out that Putin can’t declare war when enemy troops are already on Russian territory. That means he can't do it at all.”

—

“But the Kremlin leader’s failure to declare war when the troops of another country have advanced into Russian territory raises a larger and even more serious question: why aren’t Russians en masse demanding that he declare war and mobilize all the forces of the country to drive the foreign forces out? It is difficult to imagine the population of any other country suffering an invasion and not making such a demand …”

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2024/08/the-real-kursk-question-why-arent.html

“Up to 180K Russians flee Ukraine’s continued offensive.” - Politico

“Ukraine's Kursk offensive: How worried are local Russians?” - Deutsche Welle

Ukraine hammers Russian airbases

(Politico Europe)

“Ukraine appeared to be targeting Russia's airbases. The Nizhny Novgorod region is home to Savasleyka airbase, where Moscow's forces house aircraft equipped with the hypersonic Kinzhal missiles. According to local and Ukrainian media reports, multiple drones hit the airbase. The Astra independent news site reported that the Borisoglebsk aviation center in the Voronezh region had been hit, noting that pro-war military bloggers said at least three Russian airbases were targeted overnight. Last week, Ukraine said it hit Russia's Lipetsk airbase.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgorod-region-state-of-emergency-ukraine-hammering-russian-territory/

“Opinion: The Fighting in Kursk Is Already a Small Victory for Ukraine.” - The Moscow Times

“Kyiv to create 'buffer zone' in Kursk.” - Deutsche Welle

“Estonia sends ambulances and medical equipment to Ukraine.” - Ukrainska Pravda

“Russia’s Use of Inexperienced Conscripts for Kursk Defense Raises Questions.” - The Moscow Times

“Ukraine’s Charge into Russia Is Putin’s Worst Nightmare.” - Daily Beast

“Estonian intelligence says Military operations in Kursk Oblast forces Russia to redeploy troops.” - Ukrainska Pravda

“Russia's invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the shortcomings of the Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet, despite advanced capabilities.” - National Interest

“Russia's Navy Decline Is the 'Nightmare' Putin Can't Wake Up From.” - National Interest

“Russia brought war to others, now it’s coming home - Zelensky.” - France24

“Russian POWs recount fear, and horrific cost, of battling dug-in Ukrainians.” - Christian Science Monitor

“Russian blame game heats up as Ukraine’s special military operation riles Putin.” - Politico Europe

“How real is the threat of nuclear disaster as Ukrainian forces approach the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant?” - Novaya Gazeta

Predicting the Collapse of Putin’s Regime Is Wishful Thinking

By Julian G. Waller, Foreign Affairs

“The political regime that … Putin helms today is not the same as the one he started a war with in 2022. Russia has been an authoritarian country for years, with national elections heavily weighted in favor of Putin’s party and the ruling elite connected through long-standing patron-client networks.” 

—

“But since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has turned into a true personalist dictatorship, with unchecked power in the hands of one man—Putin—and the rest of the country’s political institutions relegated to subordinate positions in the authoritarian hierarchy. … There are few mechanisms in the Russian system to check the whims of the ruler.”

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin-resilient

Punitive Psychiatry Returns to Russia

(Meduza)

“Since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia has adopted a raft of repressive laws and sharply ramped up politically motivated criminal prosecutions. In a growing number of these cases, judges have declared the defendants mentally incompetent and ordered “compulsory medical measures” — Russian legalese for involuntary psychiatric treatment.”

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/08/09/compulsory-medical-measures

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