Estonia and Finland are preparing 

for attacks on infrastructure

(ERR)

“In a press conference at Kadriorg, the two presidents confirmed that Estonia and Finland are working together to prevent potential attacks on the energy infrastructure connecting the two countries. "We also discussed this issue at yesterday's National Defense Council, as well as security of the Balticconnector (The undersea gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland). Fortunately, it connects two friendly countries and that reduces any risk. As far as I know, there is no risk at the moment and we are able to protect it. However, we still must be vigilant," stressed Karis.”

https://news.err.ee/1608737935/presidents-estonia-and-finland-prepared-for-infrastructure-attacks

“Finnish, Estonian presidents discuss Ukraine, Nato and energy.” - Yle

“Ungari ja Türgi pole veel ratifitseerinud Soome ja Rootsi liitumist NATO-ga.” - ERR

“Estonian-Finnish cooperation this winter more important than ever.” - The Baltic Times

“Estonia and Finland are united by the fallout from the war.” - Baltic Times

“Baltic Attacks Expose Vulnerability of European Infrastructure.” - Spiegel

“Undersea pipeline sabotage demands the West prepare for more attacks.” - Washington Post

“Baltics, Poland, Finland to hold joint civil protection exercise.” - LRT

_______________

EstoNews Housekeeping

• Suur Aitäh goes out to Eric Pensa in Oklahoma for contributing important story links for this week’s newsletter.

• BTW, EstoNews is on Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/EstoNews/

• Every issue of the newsletter since 2014 has been converted to PDFs and are stored in my Dropbox account. This link should give you access if you’d like to take a look: “EstoNews Archive” . 

• I am thinking about emailing the weekly newsletter as a PDF file. That would allow more photographs, graphics, etc. Won’t happen until 2023.

_______________

Friday 7. October

Eestis võimutseb ringkaitse nafta- ja gaasiärikatele

Ülle Harju, Postimees - Arvamus / Opinion

Rough Translation: 

“Based on the Russian customs declarations obtained by Postimees, it turned out that after the June sanctions package, six or seven companies continue to bring oil and gas products from Russia to Estonia in large quantities. Most of the companies are connected to Russian oligarchs on the one hand and international giant corporations on the other, with our local Russians as intermediate links.”

—

“Among the Estonians, one group figures in this group - the major owners of the Alexela group, who during the last month have carefully tried to give the impression that they have almost no connection with Russian oil and gas. …”

https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7622112/ulle-harju-eestis-voimutseb-ringkaitse-nafta-ja-gaasiarikatele

—

https://news.postimees.ee/7621174/the-businessman-worth-nobel-prize-in-literature-stinks-of-russian-oil

Report to Congress: U.S.-Baltic Relations

(USNI)

[Congressional Research Service report, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania background and U.S.-Baltic Relations. - Sept. 29, 2022]

https://news.usni.org/2022/10/06/report-to-congress-on-u-s-baltic-relations

Or:

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23125457/estonia-latvia-and-lithuania-background-and-us-baltic-relations-sept-29-2022.pdf

Päästeamet: hädaolukorras on esimene varjumiskoht oma kodu

(ERR)

“Päästeamet on kaardistanud Eestis suurusjärgus 100 avalikku varjumiskohta. Ideaalis võiks neid olla igas linnaosas vähemalt üks. Samas peaks hädaolukorras varjuma esmajoones oma koju. Avalik varjumiskoht on mõeldud neile, kes on kriisi tekkimisel parasjagu linnaruumis.”

https://www.err.ee/1608742366/paasteamet-hadaolukorras-on-esimene-varjumiskoht-oma-kodu

Kolonel Margo Grosberg: tuumarelva kasutamine poleks sõjalises mõttes mõistlik

(ERR)

"Toonitan, et sõjalises mõttes pole sellise relva kasutamine mõistlik mingit pidi, see ei anna efekti. See (efekt) on väga madal," lausus Grosberg. Samas vaadates ajalukku, mida Vene relvajõud on teinud, on lähenemas ajaaken, kus Vene relvajõud on harjutanud tavapäraselt strateegilise tuumaüksuste tegevust ja on toimunud õppus nimega Äike, lisas ta. "Me ei näe praegu sõjategevuse mõistes Ukrainas seda, et seda õppust võidakse kasutada tuumarelva kasutamiseks. Tuumaoht tuleb meeles hoida, aga see ei ole minu arvates väga suur.”

https://www.err.ee/1608741895/grosberg-tuumarelva-kasutamine-poleks-sojalises-mottes-moistlik

“Pentagon: No sign Putin is planning to use nukes after Biden's 'Armageddon' comment.” - Politico

Russian authorities took refugees waiting at southeastern Estonian border crossing

(ERR)

“Russia has loaded more than a thousand people waiting to cross the border into Southeastern Estonia, primarily refugees from Ukraine, into trucks and taken them away somewhere, Minister of the Interior Lauri Läänemets (SDE) said Wednesday. The Police and Border Guard Board (PPA) is trying to find out more about the refugees' fate.”

https://news.err.ee/1608739393/estonian-minister-russian-authorities-took-refugees-waiting-at-border-away

“Russia forcibly took away Ukrainians trying to cross Russia-Estonia border.” - Euromaidan Press

“Reinsalu: ukrainlaste äraviimine piirilt ei ole juhuslik.” - ERR

Ukrainians being taken away from southern border was no coincidence

(ERR)

“… said Minister of Foreign Affairs Urmas Reinsalu (Isamaa), warning that behind the move may be a plan to organize provocations. According to the foreign minister, the formation of a line of Ukrainians waiting on the Russian side to enter Estonia alone was a deliberate action by Russian authorities, as was now the removal of people from the Russian side of the Kunichina Gora/Luhamaa along the Southeastern Estonian border on Wednesday.”

—

“Considering that people had arrived at that border checkpoint wishing to enter Estonia, their disappearance from there had to have been violent, he added.”

https://news.err.ee/1608740395/estonian-fm-ukrainians-being-taken-away-from-border-no-coincidence

24.2 % Inflation in Estonia in September

(ERR)

“Energy, with price rises of 40.8 % compared with the same month last year, was the main driver, while food, alcohol and tobacco have risen in price by 12 % over the same period.”

https://news.err.ee/1608734683/eurostat-inflation-in-estonia-24-2-percent-in-september

“Estonia may have to borrow €1.2 billion next year.” - ERR

“Bank of Estonia: Interest payments may rise considerably in next few years.” - ERR

“Cost of long-term borrowing for Estonia rises 32-fold, to 4 %.” - ERR

“Kallas: Keeping troops in Estonia a major expense for UK.” - ERR

Russian expert fears Putin’s successor will be more vicious

(The Sun)

“Geopolitical expert Brandon J Weichert told The Sun that Putin isn’t America’s pal but warned that his successor is “going to be more vicious.”

https://www.the-sun.com/news/6388332/vladimir-putin-birthday-successor-vicious-america-russia/

“Little Public Enthusiasm in Russia for Putin’s Latest Annexation of Ukrainian Land.” - Paul Goble

Belarus Threatens ‘Cruel’ Attacks on a ‘New’ Country

(The Daily Beast)

“The head of the border committee of Belarus, Anatoly Lappo, claimed that Poland was acting “provocatively,” and that if any Polish attack takes place against Belarusian border officials, Belarus will not hold back. “[If] there will be at least one bullet in our border guards, the answer will be immediate and cruel.”

—

“The warning comes just as Ukrainian forces prepare for possible attacks from Belarus. According to an assessment from Ukraine Security Service (SBU) Colonel Roman Kostenko, it is possible that Belarus may mobilize its forces to invade Ukraine."

https://www.thedailybeast.com/key-russian-ally-belarus-threatens-cruel-attacks-on-poland?via=ios

“Ukrainian Forces Prepare For Potential Attack By Belarus.” - RFERL

“Vladmir Putin's 70th Birthday Gift From Belarus President: A New Tractor.” - Huffington Post

“Putini otsuseid on hakatud kritiseerima ka Vene presidendi siseringis.” - ERR

Thursday 6. October

Estonia’s population became more diverse

By Silver Tambur, Estonian World

“There are a total of 962,643 people of native origin living in Estonia, which is 10,251 fewer than in the previous census. The rest, or 27.5% of Estonia’s population, are of foreign origin. The foreign-origin population, in turn, is divided into the first, second, and third generation according to whether people have settled in Estonia on their own or whether their parent(s) or grandparent(s) had already done so before them.”

https://estonianworld.com/life/estonias-population-has-become-more-diverse/

Europe Must Realize ‘He’ Might Return

(Foreign Affairs)

“After the tumult of Donald Trump’s presidency, Germans have welcomed the return of the United States as a resolute defender of European security and of the rules-based international order. At the same time, however, the war in Ukraine has opened Germany’s eyes to the risks of depending on the United States for security when Washington is focused on great-power rivalry with China and mired in its own democratic uncertainty.”

—

“Germany still regards the United States as an indispensable lifeline, but the possibility of Trump or some other Trumpist candidate retaking the White House has German officials deeply worried. As Norbert Röttgen, a German lawmaker who previously served as chair of the Bundestag’s Committee on Foreign Affairs, stated publicly, the greatest threat to European (and German) security is the “precarious, endangered state of American democracy. …”

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/how-to-trump-proof-transatlantic-alliance

Russia interested in Latvian elections

(Latvian Broadcasting)

“The Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB), one of Latvia's three security services, has observed a certain amount of interest from Russia in the recent Saeima elections …”

https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/election/russia-interested-in-latvian-election-results-says-security-chief.a476876/

Hungary and Turkey are the last two roadblocks to NATO membership for Finland and Sweden

(Euronews)

“After just three months, 28 out of 30 NATO states have ratified the treaty changes in their national parliaments that would approve membership for Finland and Sweden; while 24 nations have already deposited the new paperwork in Washington. … Behind the scenes in Helsinki and Stockholm, there will be a certain degree of frustration among ministers and officials, thinking they've come so far with NATO membership, only to be blocked at the last hurdles.”

—

“It might simply be a matter of time and leverage.”

https://www.euronews.com/2022/10/06/hungary-and-turkey-are-the-last-two-roadblocks-to-nato-membership-for-finland-and-sweden

“Finland remains shoulder-to-shoulder with Sweden in Nato process.” - Yle

“Finland and Sweden’s expected accession to NATO is the most significant collateral damage incurred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine yet.” - Carnegie

Swedish scientist with Estonian roots awarded Nobel prize in medicine

(Postimees | Estonian World)

“Svante Pääbo, a Swedish paleogeneticist with Estonian roots, who sequenced the genome of the Neanderthal and discovered the previously unknown hominin Denisova, on Monday won the Nobel prize in medicine.”

https://news.postimees.ee/7618647/swedish-scientist-with-estonian-roots-wins-nobel-prize-in-medicine

—

https://estonianworld.com/knowledge/estonian-descendant-svante-paabo-awarded-a-nobel-prize/

Christie’s International Real Estate Expands into Estonia

(Press release)

“… one of Northern Europe’s Top Emerging Luxury Markets. … Like many global markets, Estonia experienced a real estate boom throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, with home prices rising by more than 20% in 2021. Tallinn is currently seeing high demand for new construction and investment properties, as the country’s booming tech industry and business-friendly policies drive high employment and an influx of foreign IT workers.”

https://www.webwire.com/ViewPressRel.asp?aId=295048

 Putin's second-largest superyacht spotted near Estonia going towards Russia

(Daily Mail)

“… being escorted by armed Russian Coast Guard vessel. … has escaped sanctions and was recently spotted off the coast of Estonia reportedfly under new name. ”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11279855/Putins-100m-superyacht-renamed-Killer-Whale-spotted-coast-Estonia.html

“Putin's superyacht spotted near Estonia was monitored also by Estonian border guard.” - Baltic Times

“Putin’s Superyacht Spotted Off Estonia Coast – Continues to Dodge Sanctions.” -  Kyiv Post

Wednesday 5. October

Juhtkiri: Verega segatud kütuseäri Eestis teenib Kremli klanni huve

[The Russian fuel business in Estonia continues to flourish]

(Postimees)

“Vene kütuseäri õitseb Eestis edasi sõjale vaatamata. Riigil tuleb see tegevus kohe ja otsustavalt lõpetada.”

—

“Kas võib keegi enam arvata, et Vene kütuseekspordi puhul oli tegemist ausa ettevõtlusega, kui kogu see tööstusharu allub Kremli kuritegelikule klannile, kes vajadusel ei löö millegi ees risti ette. Parim tõestus sellele on rohkem kui tosin Vene oligarhi ja ettevõtete tippjuhti, kes on selle aasta jooksul aknast surnuks kukkunud.

https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7619734/juhtkiri-verega-segatud-kutuseari-eestis-teenib-kremli-klanni-huve

“Eesti saaks naftaveo lõpetada ühe näpuliigutusega, aga poliitikutel pole selgroogu.” - Postimees

“Vene süsinikuaatomid lõimuvad Eestis kütusteks.” - Postimees

“Valitsus ei keelustanud kogu gaasivedu Venemaalt.” - Postimees

“Nobeli kirjanduspreemiat väärt kombinaator lõhnab Vene nafta järele.”- Postimees

Pihkva reaalsus: naine läks sünnitama, mees viidi sõtta

(Lõuna Postimees)

“Küll aga raporteeris Pihkva kuberner Mihhail Vedernikov teisipäeval, et Pihkva oblasti mobilisatsiooniplaan on 70 protsendi ulatuses täidetud. Arvestades, et Pihkvamaalt plaanitakse Ukrainasse saata 2000 mobiliseeritut, on seega nüüdseks sealt ära viidud juba 1400 meest. Kinnitamata andmeil on Ukrainasse sõdima siirdunud ka 300 vangi Pihkva oblastis asuvast Idritskaja kolooniast.”

https://lounapostimees.postimees.ee/7620422/pihkva-reaalsus-naine-laks-sunnitama-mees-viidi-sotta

Ukraina põgenike sõnul püstitab Venemaa Eesti piiri lähedale kontrollposte

(Postimees)

“Ukrainast Luhanski oblastist tulnud inimesed, kes olid oodanud Kunitšina Gora piiripunktis pääsu üle Piusa jõe Eestisse enda sõnul neli kuni kuus päeva, rääkisid, et üks kontrollpost asub Petseri linna idaosas Maiski rajoonis, kust Vene võimuesindajad olid mõned okupeeritud Luhanski oblastist saabunud inimesed ka juba tagasi saatnud. Ukrainlaste sõnul asub teine kontrollpost Gverstoni külas, mis on poolel teel Pihkva ja Petseri vahel.”

https://maailm.postimees.ee/7620353/ukraina-pogenike-sonul-pustitab-venemaa-eesti-piiri-lahedale-kontrollposte

What happens if Putin decides to cut his losses in Ukraine?

(NPR)

"The conventional wisdom out there, including analysts in our country and around the world, is that Putin can't accept defeat," Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia from 2012-2014, told NPR. "He will double down, he'll fight to the end, he might even use nuclear weapons."

—

“Yet according to McFaul, ending the war tomorrow might be the most strategically favorable move for the Russian leader.”

—

"Tragically — and I say this, I want to emphasize that word tragically — if he did say, 'OK, I'm done. Let me have Donbas and Crimea, the places I was basically controlling before he invaded again in February,' I think there'll be a lot of leaders around the world that might support him," he said. McFaul thinks that a decision to pull out of Ukraine would also be generally well received by Russians, saying that while there certainly is a significant portion of the Russian public that supports the war, the wider majority of Russians are ambivalent to Putin's goals.”

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/05/1126827965/ukraine-russia-war-putin-annex-soldiers

How war in Ukraine has remade Europe

By David Ignatius, Washington Post

“The victory celebration is stirring but wildly premature. Many months of bloody fighting probably lie ahead, with the danger growing that Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons in an effort to stave off defeat. But politicians from across Europe seemed so galvanized by Ukraine’s recent battlefield success that many dismissed the dangers of Russian escalation and what could be a cold winter for an energy-short Europe. …”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/05/ukraine-war-changed-europe-nato-russia/

Tuesday 4. October

Venemaa kaudu saabuvad põgenikud saavad Luhamaal tagasi usu inimlikkusse

(Lõuna Postimees)

“Kui varem tuli rohkem sõjapõgenikke Narva kaudu, siis nüüd liiguvad nad Lõuna-Eesti kaudu. Minu sõnum vastavale ministrile, kes sotsiaalkindlustusametiga tegeleb, on, et me peame samasuguse võimekuse [põgenikke abistada] looma ka siin, nagu Narvas. … Kuuldavasti on Vene poolel väidetavalt mõni inimene selle külma käes oodates ka ära surnud. Siin on palju väikesi lapsi, naisi, nende olukord ei ole hea.”

https://lounapostimees.postimees.ee/7619582/videolugu-venemaa-kaudu-saabuvad-pogenikud-saavad-luhamaal-tagasi-usu-inimlikkusse

“Interior minister: Estonia prepared for arrival of more refugees.” - ERR

“Estonia must be prepared for Russia to organize border provocations.” - ERR

“Currently no threat of mass illegal border crossings into Estonia.” - ERR

Reinsalu hinnangul ei saa välistada Venemaa korraldatud massilisi piiriületusi

(ERR)

“Venemaa-Eesti piiripunktidesse koguneb üha enam Ukraina sõjapõgenikke, kes soovivad pääseda Venemaalt Eestisse, kuid piiriületus Venemaa poolelt võtab aega. Välisminister Urmas Reinsalu (I) hinnangul tuleks Eestil olla valmis selleks, et Venemaa võib korraldada piiril provokatsioone ning massilist piiriületust.”

—

“Me peame olema selles mõttes valvsad, et võimaliku sõjalise rünnaku puhul, kui üksusi koondatakse, siis on meil teatud eelhoiatuse aeg pikem. Aga selle puhul, kui inimesed jopedes ja teksades hakkavad korraga piiripunkti nagu ründama, siis selle puhul peame arvestama, et meie eelhoiatuse aeg on palju väiksem, peaaegu puudub.”

https://www.err.ee/1608738361/reinsalu-hinnangul-ei-saa-valistada-venemaa-korraldatud-massilisi-piiriuletusi

“Eesti on valmis suuremaks põgenikesurveks.” - ERR

“Estonia must be prepared for Russia to organize border provocations.” - ERR

“Norra sulges piiri Vene laevadele ja veokitele.” - ERR

Finland: Russia’s Mauled Border Units Could Take One to Three Years to Recover

(Newsweek)

"Russia has redeployed the troops they had along our border to Ukraine. And also in terms of tourism, the numbers have drastically dropped since we have issued our restrictions. So it's rather calm."

—

“Asked how long it would take for Russian strength along the border to return to pre-invasion levels, Kai Sauer, the under-secretary of state for foreign and security policy at the Finnish Foreign Ministry told Newsweek: "It might take one to three years, really depending on how the war progresses, and also how the training of the new recruits takes place.”

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-mauled-border-units-military-years-recover-finnish-official-kai-sauer-1748203

Estonian PM says West must not give in to Moscow’s nuclear threats or premature peace proposals

(AP)

“The prime minister expressed hope that Russia’s embarrassing battlefield setbacks in Ukraine, domestic resistance to Moscow’s military mobilization and mounting criticism from Putin’s allies mean “we are seeing the beginning of the end of this war.”

—

“The decision to call up reservists is “meant to intimidate, but it also shows signs of panic on the Russian side, that they have to do this, really. And it’s not going in accordance with the plans,” Kallas said.”

—

“She said she expected a difficult winter in Europe, which is suffering the side effects of the war in Ukraine in the form of rising energy costs and sky-rocketing inflation. “It’s going to be very, very hard. But we have to prepare our public and be very clear (as to) why it is so. It is because Putin is waging a war on a European country,” Kallas said. “That’s why we are all suffering. So to end the sufferings, our sufferings which are much milder than the sufferings of Ukrainians, we have to put our efforts to end the war.”

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-elon-musk-twitter-inc-moscow-9b196f72f3d88d7b6c7c6b38f15851a3

“Putin going nuclear can’t be ruled out.” - Meduza

“We Must Reject Russia’s Nuclear Blackmail.” - The Atlantic

“How should the West respond to Putin’s threats?” - The Spectator

“Slovakia’s U.S. ambassador: ‘Crazy’ for Putin to drop nuke.” - Politico

“Assessing Putin’s Implicit Nuclear Threats After Annexation.” - ISW

“What would actually happen if Putin hit Ukraine with tactical nukes.” - The Week

Estonia’s defence minister: We have more allied firepower than ever before

By Sten Hankewitz, Estonian World

“Hanno Pevkur said that there are currently three contingents in Estonia – the Danes, the French and the British – adding that there are other allies in smaller units, including the United States. Assuring Estonians that their country is well defended, Pevkur pointed to recent military investments such as next year’s twofold increase in land defence bolstered by 3,800 new conscripts.”

https://estonianworld.com/security/estonias-defence-minister-we-have-more-allied-firepower-than-ever-before/

“US military financing to Estonia reaches $140.5 million in 2022.” - ERR

“Okas 2022 ~ 2 Rifles Battlegroup In Southern Estonia.” - Joint-Forces

Metropolitan Yevgeny told to break away from Moscow’s Patriarch Kirill

(CNE)

“The Estonian Minister of Home Affairs ordered the Metropolitan Yevgeny, Primate of the Estonian Orthodox Church, to distance himself from the war-supporting Moscow Patriarchate.”

https://cne.news/artikel/1778-government-estonia-demands-that-metropolitan-breaks-with-kirill

“Eugeni elamisloa tühistamist ei saa välistada.” - ERR

EU Tech: Common charger for mobile devices will be a reality in 2024

(EU Parliament | ZDNet | Wired)

“By the end of 2024, all mobile phones, tablets and cameras sold in the EU will have to be equipped with a USB Type-C charging port. The new law, adopted by plenary on Tuesday with 602 votes in favour, 13 against and 8 abstentions, is part of a broader EU effort to reduce e-waste …”

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20220930IPR41928/long-awaited-common-charger-for-mobile-devices-will-be-a-reality-in-2024

—

https://www.zdnet.com/article/european-parliament-rules-for-universal-charging-ports-on-all-portable-electronic-devices/

—

https://www.wired.com/story/eu-rules-usb-c-charging-iphone-lightning/

Central, Eastern European States Back Ukraine's NATO Bid

(RFERL)

“The statement, issued on October 2, was signed by the leaders of the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. The joint statement comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced on September 30 that Ukraine had submitted an application for accession to NATO under an accelerated procedure.”

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-nato-support-bid/32061923.html

Permanent Rupture: The European-Russian Energy Relationship Has Ended With Nord Stream

(War on the Rocks)

“The blasts that tore through the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines last Monday have already blown up whatever was left of five decades of German energy policy.”

https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/permanent-rupture-the-european-russian-energy-relationship-has-ended-with-nord-stream/

- Putin’s War -

Russia Suffers a Torrent of Battlefield Defeats Despite Partial Mobilization

(CEPA)

“Ukrainian forces have made significant progress on two fronts. In the northeast, Lyman was captured, one day after its “Russian forever” status was declared by the Kremlin as an annexed territory. More recently, in the south, Ukrainian forces managed to push back Russian troops from a large area north of the Dnipro river. The Russians simply abandoned dozens of towns they had defended for months. “

—

“Ukrainian advances are the product of new tactics that rely more heavily on lightly armored and fast-moving units, as well as on “holes” within the Russian defenses. This strategy worked in Kharkiv and is now working in Kherson. To be sure, there may be early signs of adaptation on the Russian part. When compared to the Kharkiv offensive, Russian forces may have been more deliberate and organized in their southern withdrawal, as suggested by some reports.”

https://cepa.org/article/russia-suffers-a-torrent-of-battlefield-defeats/

“Kremlin-Installed Official in Ukraine Slams Russian Military Leaders Over Mounting Losses.” - The Moscow Times

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment  5. October

(ISW)

• “Russian forces conducted a Shahed-136 drone strike against Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast, on October 5, the first Russian strike in Kyiv Oblast since June.”

• “Russian President Vladimir Putin took measures to assert full Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.”

• “Increasing domestic critiques of Russia’s “partial mobilization” are likely driving Putin to scapegoat the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and specifically Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.”

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-5

“Russian elites ramp up criticism amid Moscow's setbacks in Ukraine.” - France24

“Ukraine’s New Offensive Is Fueled by Captured Russian Weapons.” - WSJ

“Ukraina sõjavägi pööras Moskva relvad Vene armee vastu.” - WSJ/ERR

“Ukraine to receive 200 MaxxPro mine-resistant vehicles.” - Defence Blog

“Russian rockets slam into Ukrainian city near nuclear plant.” - NPR

“Russia uses T-90S tanks originally bound for export.” - Defence Blog

“Nii alistuvad Vene sõdurid ukrainlastele.” - Postimees

“Ukraine makes breakthrough in south against Russia.” - BBC

“Ukraina armee jätkab Hersonis ja Luhanskis edukat vastupealetungi.” - ERR

“Retreating Russians leave their comrades’ bodies behind.” - AP

“War’s supporters turn up criticism of Kremlin and military leaders as failures spill onto TV screens at home.” - The Guardian

“Video from Russia shows hundreds of armed people complaining about mobilization chaos.” - Meduza

Vene veteran: Putin lõi tingimused, milles pole võimalik võita

(Postimees)

“Putin hävitas riigi sõjalise mobilisatsiooni ressursid oma enda kätega ja nüüd on see idioot tõmmanud end sõtta kogu maailmaga. Ta on loonud tingimused, milles meil ei ole võimalik võita.”

https://maailm.postimees.ee/7618836/vene-veteran-putin-loi-tingimused-milles-pole-voimalik-voita

‘We Cannot Win’: Russia’s Military Veterans Opposing The Ukraine War

(Moscow Times)

“Putin destroyed the country’s military mobilization resources with his own hands and now this idiot got himself into a war with the entire world. He created circumstances in which we cannot win.”

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/03/we-cannot-win-russias-military-veterans-opposing-the-ukraine-war-a78876

“Ukraine has made huge inroads in the south and east.” - Foreign Policy

“Ukraine war: Liberated town shows human cost of Russia's defeat.” - BBC

“Russia’s Nuclear Bluster Is a Sign of Panic.” - The Atlantic

“Putin's threats have nuclear experts watching closely.” - CBC

“Russia Gives Occupied Ukraine Residents 1 Month to Choose Allegiance.” - The Moscow Times

“Putin’s Greatest Fear Coming True: Ukraine Applies To Join NATO.” - 1945

“Russia no longer has full control of any of four ‘annexed’ Ukrainian provinces.” - The Guardian

Ukraine’s Critical Moment has Arrived

By Mikhail Khodorkovsky

(Politico Europe, 4. Oct.)

“When declaring the annexation of Ukraine’s Luhansk, Donetsk, and parts of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions on Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin showed characteristic contempt for the truth. The announcement followed sham referenda reflecting Putin’s brand of democracy — where voting takes place at gunpoint and the outcome is predetermined.”

—

“Delivered amid deranged bombast regarding the “satanic” West, this was Putin’s latest attempt to regain the initiative and deflect attention from the fact that he’s losing his disastrous war — to a humiliating extent. Announcing the mobilization of 300,000 reserve troops last week was as close as he could come to admitting he’s losing. And the now familiar threats to use nuclear weapons can also be seen in this context.”

—

“Evidently, the critical moment has arrived. Putin has laid all his cards on the table — and we mustn’t be cowed by the bluster of a bully who knows he’s losing. Instead, we must intensify support for Ukraine and give it what it needs to ensure Putin’s defeat. …”

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-the-critical-moment-has-arrived/

Dealing with Defeat

By Edward Lucas, CEPA

“Look at Russian talk shows, the sounding boards for the Kremlin propaganda machine. Nobody now believes this is just a “special military operation”. The word “war” — once taboo — is spoken regularly. Recent military setbacks are discussed openly too. Asked to explain the loss of the logistics hub of Lyman, Andrey Gurulyov, the once-bombastic former deputy commander of Russia’s southern military district, blamed “constant lying”, from the bottom to the top. Seconds later, his Skype connection dropped. Maxim Yusin, a political editor on state television, said: “It’s hard to argue with dreamers who live in their own world”. That sounds like a barely veiled attack on Putin’s delusionary bombast. As military practicalities and political aims diverge, the Russian leader has scored a geopolitical first. He is claiming to have annexed territory from which his forces are in headlong retreat. …” 

https://cepa.org/article/dealing-with-defeat/

Putin’s Mobilization Mess Was Years in the Making

(Foreign Policy)

“For years after the fall of the Soviet Union, successive Russian leaders pledged to cut the bloated Soviet-era military, which topped out at 5,000,000 conscript troops at the height of the Cold War, to a leaner, more modern, and better paid force. But military experts see the piecemeal mobilization as a thumbs-down referendum on the Kremlin’s decades-long effort to reform the Russian military.”

—

“It’s a complete disaster for them, and lucky for us,” said James Foggo, a retired admiral who commanded the U.S. Navy’s 6th Fleet, responsible for Europe and Africa, and who now leads the Center for Maritime Strategy at the Navy League of the United States. “They’re not 10 feet tall. The partial mobilization measure is an admission of failure in my mind. And I don’t think they’ll ever get there, because as you can see, they’re leaving in droves and none of these young people want to fight.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/05/putin-russia-ukraine-war-mobilization-mess/

Alexey Navalny’s associates will relaunch the politician’s organization

(Meduza)

“Our new network of headquarters is more like some kind of guerrilla underground, and we are going to pay a lot of attention to security. No one will know that you are a member unless you want them to. There will be no single list of coordinators and participants,” Zhdanov promised. The Russian authorities declared Navalny’s offices, as well as his other organizations, “extremist organizations” in the summer of 2021. By court order, their activities were banned. Criminal charges were filed against Navalny’s key associates, and many have left Russia.”

https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/10/04/the-sleeping-majority-has-woken-up-putin-himself-woke-it-navalny-associates-announce-relaunch-of-office-network

Russia May Use Nord Stream Aftermath to Cause More Trouble

(Foreign Policy)

“Nord Stream AG intends to start assessing the damage to the pipeline as soon as it receives necessary official permits,” Nord Stream explained in a Sept. 29 press release. “Access to the area of incidents may be allowed only after the pressure in the gas pipeline has stabilised and the gas leakage has stopped.”

—

“Because the pipelines are ultimately Russian-owned, this gives the Russian government the opportunity to send personnel too. But because the leaks occurred in Sweden’s and Denmark’s exclusive economic zones, the two countries will dispatch maritime investigators too. … “The fact that the leaks are in Swedish and Danish EEZs but not in their territorial waters means they can’t prevent access to whichever Russian crews arrive,” a recently retired senior officer in the Swedish Navy told FP. “If the Russians go there, there’s nothing the Swedish or [Royal] Danish Navy can do. The trouble is that they can then remove the evidence Swedish and Danish investigators are looking for.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/03/nord-stream-russia-sabotage-investigation/?tpcc=recirc_trending062921

‘Putin’s Chef’ Steps Out of the Shadows

By Amy Mackinnon, Foreign Policy

“After years of vehement denials, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, acknowledged last week that he founded the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary outfit that has been deployed around the world, including to Ukraine. The admission is a sharp departure for Prigozhin, who has sued journalists for linking him to the group, which has been accused of committing gross human rights abuses in Africa, Syria, and Ukraine. The businessman’s efforts to burnish his credentials as a commander comes as Putin is under increasing pressure, with the Russian armed forces plagued by low morale and high casualties, prompting speculation as to future ambitions. Russia’s latest military debacle took place on the Kherson front in southern Ukraine between Sunday and Monday, threatening a mass Ukrainian encirclement of tens of thousands of ill-equipped troops.”

—

“Wagnerites tell me they’d vote for him over Putin any time, and it seems to me he smells blood,” Christo Grozev, lead Russia investigator with the open-source investigative group Bellingcat.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/03/yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-putin/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921

The World Putin Wants

How Distortions About the Past Feed 

Delusions About the Future

By Fiona Hill and Angela Stent

(Foreign 

“Vladimir Putin is determined to shape the future to look like his version of the past. Russia’s president invaded Ukraine not because he felt threatened by NATO expansion or by Western “provocations.” He ordered his “special military operation” because he believes that it is Russia’s divine right to rule Ukraine, to wipe out the country’s national identity, and to integrate its people into a Greater Russia. He laid out this mission in a 5,000-word treatise, published in July 2021, entitled, “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.” In it, Putin insisted that Belarusians, Russians, and Ukrainians are all descendants of the Rus, an ancient people who settled the lands between the Black and Baltic Seas. He asserted that they are bound together by a common territory and language and the Orthodox Christian faith. In his version of history, Ukraine has never been sovereign, except for a few historical interludes when it tried—and failed—to become an independent state. Putin wrote that “Russia was robbed” of core territory when the Bolsheviks created the Soviet Union in 1922 and established a Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. In his telling, since the Soviet collapse, the West has used Ukraine as a platform to threaten Russia, and it has supported the rise of “neo-Nazis” there. Putin’s essay, which every soldier sent to Ukraine is supposed to carry, ends by asserting that Ukraine can only be sovereign in partnership with Russia. “We are one people,” Putin declares.”

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/world-putin-wants-fiona-hill-angela-stent

Inside Russia’s “Filtration Camps” in Eastern Ukraine

(The New Yorker)

“Civilians describe being snatched from their homes and sent away for ideological screening, prolonged detention, and, in some cases, starvation and torture. Is there a larger plan at work?”

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/10/10/inside-russias-filtration-camps-in-eastern-ukraine

Putin’s Newest Annexation Is Dire for Russia Too

By Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic

“Putin’s war—Russia’s war—is also a war on a particular idea of world order and international law, an idea upheld not just by Europeans and North Americans, but by most of the rest of the world, indeed by the United Nations itself. One core principle of this world order is that larger countries should not be able to grab parts of smaller countries, that mass slaughter of whole populations is unacceptable, that borders have international significance and cannot be changed through violence or on one dictator’s whim. Putin already challenged this idea in 2014, when he annexed Crimea. At the time he also held a sham referendum, but he convinced many outsiders that it had some validity. Although some sanctions followed, the world largely gave him a pass. Commerce and diplomacy with Russia continued.”

—

“This time, Putin is no longer able even to pretend that the farcical votes he has staged in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson have any validity …”

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/russia-annex-ukraine-putin/671607/

And Finally:

Expelling Russia from the UN Security Council — a How-to Guide

(CEPA)

“Russia’s permanent membership of the world’s most powerful international forum has been a cause for despair, but there is a way to unseat Putin’s diplomats.”

https://cepa.org/article/expelling-russia-from-the-un-security-council-a-how-to-guide/

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