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03 February, 2017




- Tartu Peace Treaty was signed 97 years ago Thursday

- Eastern Ukraine War Heats Up 

- This week’s ‘Off Topic': Who Is Steve Bannon?


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Friday 3. Feb.
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✔ Original 1920 Treaty of Tartu on display at new National Archives building
(ERR)
"Noora kicked off a three-day open house on Thursday during which the public is welcome on guided tours of the facilities and can see the original 1920 Treaty of Tartu."
--
“The National Archives, which also include branches in Tallinn, Rakvere and Valga, collects and preserves records documenting history, culture, nationhood and social conditions in Estonia regardless of time or place of creation or medium. The collections of the archives include nearly 9 million records, the oldest of which dates back to 1240 - with the oldest on display at Noora, including a seal with the three leopards, or lions, used on Estonia’s National Coat of Arms today, dating to 1252 - and more than 15 million digital images on the web, which represents approximately just 1.5 percent of the archives’ collections."



- Eesti ostab LĂ”una-Korealt 12 liikursuurtĂŒkki
(Postimees | ERR)
—
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- Estonia accepts Finnish invitation to go in on howitzer tender
(ERR)
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- "Silver Lions" push onward into Estonia
(DVID | ERR)
“
 vehicles and soldiers are expected to arrive in Estonia Feb. 3. Once they arrive, they will immediately start training with their NATO partners.”
—



- Arstid teevad ettevalmistusi streigiks
(Postimees)



- Podcast: Beyond Hybrid Warfare
[Discussion of Russia's strategic doctrine, strategy, and capabilities, and a look at Russia's force posture and military strategy in the Baltics.]
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- Trump, Europe, and the Quest to Save NATO
(War on the Rocks)



- How to Survive a Russian Hack:
Lessons from Eastern Europe and the Baltics
(The Atlantic)




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Thursday 2. Feb.
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✔ President Kaljulaidi kĂ”ne Tartu Rahu 97 aastapĂ€eval
(Postimees)
—
✔ Ülikoolilinn tĂ€histas Tartu rahu aastapĂ€eva tĂ”rvikurongkĂ€iguga
(Linnaleht)
—
✔ Tallinna linnavalitsuse liikmed asetasid Tartu rahu aastapĂ€eva auks pĂ€rja Poska hauale
(Pealinn)
--
✔ Ka Kuressaares tĂ€histati Tartu rahu aastapĂ€eva
(Maa Leht)



✔ Tartu Peace Treaty signed 97 years ago today
(ERR)
"The Treaty of Tartu ended the Estonian War of Independence, finalized the country’s eastern border and recorded Russia’s unreserved recognition of Estonia’s independence and renouncement in perpetuity of all rights to Estonian territory."



- Eestis peaks lasteaias Ă”petama vÔÔrkeele: Kaljulaid
(Postimees | Delfi)
"On tohutu lapse aja ja ressursi raiskamine, kui me ei Ă”peta talle lasteaias selgeks veel ĂŒhte keelt. Vene laste puhul peaks selleks olema eesti keel, aga ka eesti laps vĂ”iks tegelikult lasteaiast saada kaasa selle hindamatu varanduse – teise keele. Olgu see siis inglise, vene vĂ”i saksa keel, rÀÀkis President."
—



✔ NATO ekspertide sĂ”jamĂ€ng: Balti riigid peavad vastu kaks nĂ€dalat ja selleks ajaks valitseb Kaliningradis juba pimedus
(Delfi)
"VÀljaanne Visegrad Insight kirjutab, et seekordne simulatsioon andis positiivsema tulemuse kui korporatsiooni RAND aasta tagasi korraldatud samalaadne sÔjamÀng. RANDi mÀngus jÔudsid Vene vÀed Tallinnasse ja Riiga vÀhem kui 60 tunniga. Selles ei arvestatud tÀnavu Balti riikidesse jÔudnud NATO lisavÀgesid."
—
- Wargame Postulates Russian Invasion of Baltic
(Mönch)
"Using the latter’s proprietary HEGEMON simulation software, the four-day exercise sought to, “assist in the development of a regional and NATO accepted understanding of the nature of the Russian military threat to the Baltic States and Poland.”



- Record low for ice in the Baltic Sea
(Yle)
"So far the winter has been relatively mild and the extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea is less than has ever been recorded at this time of year."



- Eesti Rahva Muuseumi kĂŒlastas jaanuaris 20,000 inimest
(Pealinn)



- Arvamus: Venemaa alles mĂ”tleb, mida ta Trumpilt tahab ja kuidas seda saada
(Postimees)



- Moscow Tightens Border with Belarus as Minsk Reportedly Plans to Exit Russian Structures 
(Window on Eurasia - Paul Goble)
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- Russia is in a quarrel with Belarus
(Meduza)



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- Ukraine -
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✔ Ukraine, first casualty of Trump-Putin alliance
(Politico-Europe: Anna Nemtsova)
"Since 2014, eastern Ukraine has been tormented by a conflict that has cost the lives of more than 10,000 people and left cities pockmarked by shelling. A peace accord last year put a halt to the worst of the violence but hostilities have flared up again in recent weeks, in part, observers say, as a result of the new administration in Washington, which has upended the fragile balance of power."
—
✔ Russia’s War in Ukraine Must Not be ‘Forgotten’
(Paul Goble)
"Many in the West are forgetting or out of laziness or self-centeredness pretending to forget the bloody consequences of Russia’s continuing aggression in Ukraine."
—
✔ Commentary: Only One Reason Why There's War In The Donbas
(RFERL: Brian Whitmore)
"This is a manufactured war and Russia manufactured it."
--
✔ U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley Blames Russia For New Ukraine Violence
(Huffington Post)
“
 and warned Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia will not be lifted until Moscow returns Crimea to Kiev.”
--
- Vene-vastased sanktsioonid jÀÀvad Krimmi tagastamiseni
(Postimees)
--
—
- Ukraine Fighting Rages For Fifth Day
(RFERL)
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- NATO issues dire Ukraine warning
(PRI)
—
- See vÔib siin lÔpmatult kesta
(Postimees - Jaanus Piirsalu)
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- Poroshenko Plans To Hold Referendum On Ukraine Joining NATO
(RFERL)
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- NATO kutsub Venemaad ĂŒles peatama vĂ€givalda Ukrainas
(ERR)
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Wednesday 1. Feb.
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- From The Baltics To Poland, Militias Rising Against Russian Threat
(WorldCrunch)
"The small Baltic states, NATO member states just like Poland, currently feel even more vulnerable. They're convinced that they could be sacrificed at any moment if it helps good relations between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. And the nomination of Rex Tillerson, known for his contacts with the Kremlin, as Secretary of State has only reinforced certainty across the region that they now have to be prepared for the "worst-case scenario" when it comes to Moscow — namely to be left to their own devices."



- Finland turns to face modern threats
(Medium)
"Defense Minister Jussi Niinistö is also strongly pushing for the Defense Forces wartime strength to be increased to 280,000 soldiers. This increase would mainly consist of new local battalions with high readiness and gear partially issued to the reservists in peace time. This would somewhat compensate for the lack of a proper home guard that is found in neighboring countries Norway, Sweden and Estonia. The Soviet Union required Finland to disband the previous home guard, called Suojeluskunta, after the World War II."
—



✔ EU President Tusk’s letter to EU heads of state
(Document Cloud)
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- Opinion: United we stand, divided we fall
(Estonian World)
--
- E.U. includes President Trump with threats from ISIS and Russia
(EuroNews)
—
- Opinion: The EU has to stand up to Donald Trump
(Deutsche Welle)




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Tuesday 31. Jan.
_________________


- OpEd: Time for a Change at NATO
(The American Conservative)
“If NATO is to survive, it needs to introduce some degree of accountability on European members that are keeping their military spending down in order to fund domestic entitlements. Including the United States, only five of NATO’s 28 members spend the 2 percent of GDP on defense that the alliance’s political leaders have agreed on as the benchmark. And of those other four members, only the United Kingdom can be labeled as a powerhouse on the European continent."



- NATO, U.S. Want Dialogue With Russia 'From Position Of Strength’
(RFERL)



- Commentary: Europe’s Fatal Attraction to Trumpism and Putinism
(Carnegie Europe)
"Europe’s leaders, particularly in Brussels, are woefully unprepared to galvanize the EU."



- Baltic central banks to issue joint commemorative coin for centenary of Baltics
(Baltic Course)



- Balti peaministrid allkirjastasid Rail Balticu leppe
(ERR)
—
- Baltic PMs to sign Rail Baltica agreement
(Baltic Times)
--
- Poolt ja vastu: Rail Baltic
(ERR)



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Monday 30. Jan.
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✔ Trump, Russia and the new geopolitics of the Baltics
(New Eastern Europe)
"The future of the Baltic states during Trump’s presidency is still very much a talking point across Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Feelings remain mixed.”
--
“There were a number of leading Russian politicians/officials celebrating the Trump-Putin conversation as a breakthrough,” said Estonian political scientist and journalist Ahto Lobjakas. “Personally, I don’t think anything is going to happen any time soon.”
-- 
“... the Baltic and other small eastern European states who are historically located in the ‘buffer’ zone have always been afraid of great powers arriving to decisions over their shoulders. A colleague of mine has called this Yaltaphobia,” said a research fellow at the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, Diāna Potjomkina.
-- 
Trump’s presidency involves a “definite change in style, and we will probably have to get accustomed to that,” said Kalev Stoicescu, a research fellow with the Tallinn-based International Centre for Defence and Security.“The question is, what will be the difference in content? According to Stoicescu, the fact “no details as such” had been released of the phone conversation could be cause for concern. It means “there was a mutual agreement not to do that,” he said.



- In the Baltics, waiting for history to start up again
(Politico-Europe)
"[Lithuania] has reintroduced mandatory military service, refurbished Soviet-era bomb shelters, and even distributed pamphlets with detailed instructions for dealing with an armed invasion."




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- â€˜Off Topic’ : 
Who Is Steve Bannon?
_________________


- The Man Behind Trump
(Politico)


- Bannon Becomes Major Force in Trump Administration
(ABCNews' Good Morning America)


- The Most Dangerous Political Operative in America
(Bloomberg - 8. October, 2015)


- Is Bannon the 2nd Most Powerful Man in the World?
(Time)







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- Russia -
“Trust No One"
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✔ Alexander Dugin: The One Russian Linking Putin, Erdogan and Trump
(Bloomberg)
"The Russian ultra-nationalist dubbed “Putin’s Rasputin” by Breitbart News (when it was run by President Donald Trump’s chief strategist, Steve Bannon), has emerged as an unlikely foreign-policy fixer for the Kremlin. â€Š And with people he calls ideological allies now in the White House, Dugin says he’s bullish on better ties with the U.S., too. â€Š â€œHe’s seen as a brilliant philosopher, but brilliance and madness are very close to each other,” said Sergei Markov, a political consultant to Putin’s staff.”
--
"Now Dugin’s focusing on Europe, where he’s been cultivating ties with anti-establishment parties that threaten a political and military union seven decades in the making."



✔ Why Russian Banks Have an Interest in Washington
(The Atlantic)
"The country’s two largest state-run banks have been lobbying for relief from sanctions imposed in 2014. 
 Last year, Sberbank and VTB collectively spent hundreds of thousands of dollars lobbying against U.S. sanctions, according to lobbying disclosure reports. Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, paid a total of $425,000 to two Washington, D.C., firms last year in order to lobby Congress, the State Department, and the Department of Commerce for “possible ways to address sanctions relief,” according to all of the disclosures. VTB Group, the country’s second-largest bank, hired a different firm in May, paying them $17,500 a month for lobbying related to U.S. sanctions, according to a copy of the contract submitted to the Department of Justice 
"



- Interview: Mark Galeotti, History and Evolution of Spetsnaz
(Remote Control Project)
"Over time, (Spetsnaz) acquired a greater role as ‘first in’ troops meant to seize bridgeheads, such as Prague and Kabul airports in the 1968 and 1979 invasions of Czechoslovakia and Afghanistan, respectively. As a clear step above Soviet conscripts, even the paratroopers, they also ended up pressed into service for tough missions that needed tough men, not least taking on the Afghan mujahideen in the hills. These were, however, secondary roles. Their main focus throughout was to be able to shatter NATO’s command network and defang its tactical nuclear forces if ever the long-feared Third World War erupted."



- Baker’s Dozen of Neglected Russian Stories
(Paul Goble)



- Opinion: Putin’s Art of the Ukrainian Deal
(National Review)



- It’s Putin’s World
(The Atlantic)
"How the Russian president became the ideological hero of nationalists everywhere."



- Trump and Putin's Game Theory
(Foreign Policy)
"What happens when one unstoppable force meets another? ... we know at least one thing to be true about them: both have a loose relationship with the truth. They readily exploit fake news, and they believe that reality is what they say it is. Worse, both men have a strong paranoid streak, with Trump primarily seeing enemies at home and Putin primarily seeing enemies abroad. Both are also certain of their own greatness: Trump regularly asserts that he’ll be the greatest president since time immemorial, while Putin asserts that he and Russia are one and the same."
--
- It Started With a Call
(The Moscow Times)
"Trump’s conversation with Putin was noticeably warmer that his phone encounters the same day with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande. Both had to remind Trump of the fundamental importance of the NATO alliance in transatlantic security, the existing benchmarks for lifting Russia sanctions (Russia’s implementing the Minsk agreements) and the need to uphold the nuclear agreement with Iran. Merkel even had to lecture Trump on U.S. obligations under the Geneva conventions to accept refugees fleeing war."
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- If Trump Tries to Make a Deal With Putin, He’s Already Lost
(Foreign Policy)
"Don’t be fooled. This isn’t statesmanship - it’s selling America’s hard-won leadership in the world, and selling it cheap."
--
- NATO-Russia Relations in a Post-Truth World
(Carnegie Europe)
—
- Propaganda's New Goals: Create Confusion, Sow Doubt
(US News)



- Russian critic Vladimir Kara-Murza suffers sudden organ failure
(BBC | World Affairs Journal | Daily Beast)
—
—



- Vladimir Central, Notorious Political Prison of Tsarist and Soviet Pasts, Resumes Operations
(Window on Eurasia)




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