Pronkssõduri kriis 2007: tagasivaade varasele hübriidkonfliktile

Ivo Juurvee ja Anna-Mariita Mattiisen, ICDS

“Raport teeb tagasivaate 2007. aasta kevadel pronkssõdurina tuntud Teise maailmasõja monumendi ümber puhkenud kriisile, mida mäletatakse nii Eestis kui ka piiri taga. See oli üks esimesi märke selle kohta, et Venemaa ja Lääne suhted on jahenemas, ühtlasi sisaldas kriis esimest korda laialdasi küberrünnakuid riigi vastu.”

https://icds.ee/et/pronkssoduri-kriis-2007/

“The Bronze Soldier Crisis of 2007: Revisiting an Early Case of Hybrid Conflict”  (ICDS downloadable PDF)

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Friday 28. August

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Estonia’s ‘holy forests’ threatened by demand for biofuels

(National Geographic)

“Estonians struggle to reconcile their ancient forest-based religion with more and more stands of trees grown as a commodity for export.”

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“Worldwide, as the area covered by forests has decreased by more than 440 million acres since 1990, tree plantations have increased by more than 300 million acres. Forests are being converted into industrial tree fields—and tiny Estonia has become a pointed case study in this global transformation.” 

—

“The loss of natural forests cuts deep into Estonian history and religion.”

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/08/estonia-holy-forests-threatened-by-industrial-tree-farming/#close

“Timber.ee oksjonikeskkonnas toimus 2,8 miljoni eurone metsatehing.” - Delfi

Screenshot from timber.ee

A peek at how Timber.ee auctions off our Estonian forests - (eesti keeles)

Ettevaatust: taas ärganud ja eriti ohtlik pahavara on nakatanud Eestis juba üle saja arvuti

(Forte)

“Kurjategijate poolt juulis taas aktiveeritud üliohtlik pahavara Emotet on viimastel andmetel nakatanud Eestis juba vähemalt sada arvutit ja arvutivõrku ning reaalne arv on tõenäoliselt märksa suurem.”

https://forte.delfi.ee/news/tarkvara/ettevaatust-taas-arganud-ja-eriti-ohtlik-pahavara-on-nakatanud-eestis-juba-ule-saja-arvuti?id=90878371

Let’s talk about Emotet malware

(Malwarebytes)

“The Emotet banking Trojan was first identified by security researchers in 2014. Emotet was originally designed as a banking malware that attempted to sneak onto your computer and steal sensitive and private information. … Emotet is a Trojan that is primarily spread through spam emails.”

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“Don’t download suspicious attachments or click a shady-looking link. Emotet can’t get that initial foothold on your system or network if you avoid those suspect emails.”

https://www.malwarebytes.com/emotet/

Eesti õhuruumis lendas USA B-52

(ERR)

“"Täna lendas Eesti õhuruumis Ameerika Ühendriikide õhuväe pommituslennuk B-52. Tegemist oli koostööharjutusega Eesti kaitseväega, pärast mida sooritati koos kahe õhuturbe hävitajaga 360-kraadine formatsioonilend üle Tallinna.”

https://www.err.ee/1128737/usa-strateegiline-pommitaja-b-52-teeb-reede-ohtul-eestist-ulelennu

“Saksa hävitajad tulevad Ämarisse.” - Postimees

“German air force contingent starts NATO air policing duties.” - ERR

“U.S.-Latvia Defense Cooperation in Light of Trump’s Troop Withdrawals.” - FPRI, 17. August

Rootsi sõjavägi tõstis valmisolekut Läänemerel ja Gotlandil

(ERR)

“Valgevene sündmustega kaasnenud aktiivsuse kasv on muutnud olukorra raskemini prognoositavaks, leiab Rootsi kaitsevägi.”

https://www.err.ee/1127248/rootsi-sojavagi-tostis-valmisolekut-laanemerel-ja-gotlandil

High readiness action in the Baltic Sea and in Gotland

(Swedish Armed Forces)

“There is currently extensive military activity in the Baltic Sea, conducted by Russian as well as Western players, on a scale the likes of which have not been seen since the Cold War", says Jan Thörnqvist, Swedish Armed Forces’ Commander of Joint Operations.”

https://www.forsvarsmakten.se/en/news/2020/08/high-readiness-action-in-the-baltic-sea-and-in-gotland/

“Swedish readiness operation.” - Corporal Frisk, Finnish Blogger

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Thursday 27. August

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Mis saab Maarjamäe memoriaalist?

(Postimees)

“Tallinnas Pirita tee ääres asuva Maarjamäe memoriaali ohutuse ja väljanägemise üle on käinud arutelu juba aastaid. Praegu on linnavalitsus seisukohal, et nõukogude ajal valminud memoriaal tuleks korda teha, siseminister Mart Helme seevastu pooldab rajatise lammutamist. Memoriaali korrastamise projekti eeldatav maksumus on kolm miljonit eurot.”

https://leht.postimees.ee/7047189/mis-saab-maarjamae-memoriaalist?_ga=2.182172135.1393130733.1598289070-2083525256.1596564716

Maarjamäe kommunismiohvrite memoriaalile lisati 350 uut nime

(ERR)

"Teoreetiliselt võiks lisanduda kümneid tuhandeid, sest et kümnete tuhandete inimeste saatus on meile teadmata. Kui me vähegi suudame nende saatuse kohta usutavat infot leida, siis saab ka nimesid siia kanda. Memoriaali ehitades on sellega arvestatud, et siin on pinda, kuhu saab uusi nimesid panna," rääkis Eesti Mälu Instituudi juhatuse esimees Meelis Maripuu.”

https://www.err.ee/1126654/maarjamae-kommunismiohvrite-memoriaalile-lisati-350-uut-nime

Estonia coronavirus infections rise, heightening risk of travel restrictions

(Helsinki Times)

“… the incidence of new coronavirus infections in the country has risen to 11.4 per 100,000.”

https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/news-in-brief/18012-estonia-coronavirus-infections-rise-heightening-risk-of-travel-restrictions.html

“Corona crisis hit Finnish economy harder than forecast.” - Yle

Estonia's possible withdrawal from China's 17+1 format

(ERR)

“Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu believes China poses a threat to the protection of Western values around the world, which is why Estonia needs to rethink its inclusion in the "17 + 1" format.”

https://news.err.ee/1127434/reinsalu-hints-at-estonia-s-possible-withdrawal-from-china-s-17-1-format

“Intervjuu | Välisminister Urmas Reinsalu.” - Eesti Päevaleht, Paywall

Russians ask: Is Putin’s coronavirus vaccine the real deal?

(Politico-Europe)

“Even Russian friends who hailed the achievement still admitted that they’d rather wait until trials were complete before playing Russian roulette with their health.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/russians-euphoric-but-wary-about-vladimir-putin-coronavirus-vaccine/

“Most Russians Doubt ‘Sputnik-5’ Vaccine Safe and Effective and Won’t Take It.” - Paul Goble

“Russian Coronavirus Vaccine Approved for Required Third Stage of Testing Only.” - Paul Goble

Valgevene aktivistid põgenevad Lukašenka eest Leetu

(Postimees)

“Mõni nädal tagasi vahistati Valgevene helirežissöörid Vladislav Sokolovski ja Kirill Galanov, kes panid ühel valitsusmeelsete kogunemisel Minskis mängima nõukogudeaegse protestilaulu.”

https://maailm.postimees.ee/7049506/valgevene-aktivistid-pogenevad-lukasenka-eest-leetu?_ga=2.142041714.1706663545.1598624226-2083525256.1596564716

“Võimude jõhkrus tekitab meeleavaldajate seas hirmu.” - Postimees

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Tuesday 25. August

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Riigikogu võttis vastu avalduse Valgevene demokraatia toetuseks

(Postimees | ERR)

“Riigikogu esimees Henn Põlluaas (EKRE) kutsus täna 88 riigikogu liikme ettepanekul kokku riigikogu erakorralise istungjärgu, kus 88 rahvasaadiku esitatud ­avaldus «Demokraatia ja kodanikuühiskonna toetuseks Valgevenes» eelnõu leidis heakskiidu. Avalduse poolt hääletas 92, vastuseisjaid ega erapooletuid ei olnud.”

https://poliitika.postimees.ee/7046885/riigikogu-vottis-vastu-avalduse-valgevene-demokraatia-toetuseks

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https://www.err.ee/1127330/riigikogu-vottis-vastu-avalduse-valgevene-demokraatia-toetuseks

“Lukašenko ei suuda hoiduda soovist oma rahvale kätte maksta.” - ERR

“Lukashenko can not hold back desire for payback.” - ERR

“Riigikogu valis demokraatia ja diktatuuri vahel.” - Postimees

“Latvia promises easier entry for Belarusians.” - Latvian Broadcasting

“Inimõiguslastel on andmeid 450 inimese piinamisest Valgevene miilitsas.” - ERR

Lithuania avoided ‘military crisis’ with Belarus, says presidential adviser

(LRT)

“During the Freedom Way human chain demonstration on Sunday, when some 50,000 people linked hands to show solidarity with protests in the neighbouring county, Lithuania said a Belarusian helicopter entered the country’s airspace near Medininkai.”

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1218575/lithuania-avoided-military-crisis-with-belarus-says-presidential-adviser

“Leedu peaminister loodab jõudude tasakaalule regioonis.” - ERR

“Belarus claims military helicopters 'stopped' Lithuanian balloons during Freedom Way.” - LRT

“Lithuania handed in a diplomatic note to Belarus over an alleged violation of Lithuania's airspace during the formation of the Freedom Way.” - Delfi

Kersti Kaljulaid does not plan to ‘abandon ship’

(Postimees)

“Information from last week of President Kersti Kaljulaid’s willingness to run for OECD secretary general created mixed feelings in people who know the ins and outs of the institution.”

https://news.postimees.ee/7046686/kaljulaid-does-not-plan-to-abandon-ship

Finnair koondab 1,000 töökohta

(ERR)

“Finnairis töötab kokku ligikaudu 6700 inimest, kellest 6200 töökoht asub Soomes.”

https://www.err.ee/1127235/finnair-koondab-1000-tookohta

“Finnair announced it was planning layoffs of up to 1,000 workers.” - Yle

Belarus' Astravyets nuclear power plant should be unacceptable to the EU

(Baltic Times)

“… and its electricity imports should be treated as support for Lukashenko's regime.”

https://www.baltictimes.com/belarus__n-plant_should_be_unacceptable_to_eu_-_lithuanian_president/

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Monday 24. August

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Lukašenka päevad on loetud

Kalev Stoicescu, Postimees

“Venemaa «kollektiivne Putin» kardab paranoiliselt värvilist revolutsiooni ehk rahva ülestõusu stabiilselt stagneeruva ja ebademokraatliku režiimi vastu, kirjutab Rahvusvahelise Kaitseuuringute Keskuse teadur ja kolumnist Kalev Stoicescu.” 

https://leht.postimees.ee/7045471/kalev-stoicescu-lukasenka-paevad-on-loetud?_ga=2.174644706.1393130733.1598289070-2083525256.1596564716

“Tallinnas moodustati inimkett Valgevene toetuseks.” - ERR

Baltic nations form human chains in support of Belarus protests

(DW)

“Three decades after forming a mass human chain for their own independence, thousands in the Baltic states did it again for Belarus. The protest action took place as tens of thousands demonstrated in Minsk.”

https://www.dw.com/en/baltic-nations-form-human-chains-in-support-of-belarus-protests/a-54667005

“Lithuanians Form 'Freedom Way' Human Chain In Solidarity With Belarus Opposition.” - RFERL

“The Freedom Way stretched 32 kilometres from the capital Vilnius to a memorial on the Belarusian border.” - Euronews

S&P affirms Estonia's rating at high level

(Baltic Course)

“… at the current high level of AA- … The short-term rating was affirmed at A-1+.”

http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/good_for_business/?doc=158526

Previously classified propaganda film of Tsar Bomba nuke test released

(The Barent Observer)

“The bomb, officially named RDS-220 and later nick-named Tsar Bomba, was the largest nuclear weapon ever constructed. With a yield of 50 megatons (50 million tons), equal to around 3,800 Hiroshima bombs, the weapon was set off over Novaya Zemlya on October 30, 1961.”

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2020/08/rosatom-releases-previously-classified-documentary-video-50-mt-novaya-zemlya-test

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Belarus

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Is Putin about to make a costly mistake in Belarus?

(Brookings)

“… Belarusians have protested against a sham election. They are protesting in a way they have not protested in the nearly three decades since Belarus became an independent state. While Lukashenka, who has held power for 26 years, rails against Western interference, Western criticism focuses on democratic norms and a stolen election. There is no burning desire to pull Belarus into the West. Both the European Union and NATO have more than enough on their plates.”

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/08/28/is-putin-about-to-make-a-costly-mistake-in-belarus/

“EU calls on Moscow to refrain from Belarus intervention” - Euronews

“How Belarusian State TV Faked Coverage Of An Opposition Rally.” - RFERL

“Vilnius looks at ban on Lukashenko entering Lithuania.” - Euronews

Belarus is a reminder that the USSR is still collapsing

(Atlantic Council)

“The national awakening in today’s Belarus is especially striking because it is taking place in a country that had previously clung to the traditions, symbols, and narratives of the USSR with more enthusiasm than any other former Soviet republic. While Putin’s Russia has gone to considerable lengths over the past two decades to rehabilitate aspects of the Soviet past, Lukashenka’s Belarus also continued to embrace the specific statecraft and economic practices of the Communist era.”

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/belarus-is-a-reminder-that-the-ussr-is-still-collapsing/

Lukashenko’s Lesson For Putin

(Warsaw Institute)

“Vladimir Putin and his aides are keeping an eye on the events in Belarus –– as Russian officials feel concern over their interests in the neighboring country as well as wonder about political future at home. Lukashenko’s current headache might be a lesson for Vladimir Putin. … The Belarusian dictator made a dreadful mistake, allowing independent candidates to run for office.”

https://warsawinstitute.org/lukashenkos-lesson-putin/

Lukashenko’s Security Forces Detain Belarusian Opposition Leaders

(ISW)

“Belarusian authorities detained Minsk Tractor Works (MTZ) strike leader Sergei Dvlevsky and opposition leader Olga Kovalkova – both members of opposition leader Svitlana Tikanouskaya’s Coordination Council – on August 24. Belarusian security forces also detained Alexander Lavrinovich – the strike leader at the state-owned Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant (MZKT) – and Anatoly Bokun – the strike leader at the Belaruskali potash fertilizer plant.”

http://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-lukashenkos-security-forces.html

Stories From Protesters In Belarus Of Police Torture And Abuse

(RFERL)

“Since the brutal crackdown began against protests disputing the results of the Belarusian presidential election on August 9, which are widely seen as falsified, many have come forward to tell horrific tales of torture and abuse at the hands of the country's security forces.”

https://www.rferl.org/a/30801454.html

The people want a new Belarus

(DW)

“Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya says embattled President Alexander Lukashenko must go, because protesters "will not step away." Speaking to DW, she also praised the support she's received from the EU.”

https://www.dw.com/en/the-people-want-a-new-belarus-opposition-leader-says/a-54694773

Belarusians Expected a Maidan but Instead have a Revolution

By Paul Goble

“Belarusians expected a Maidan like in Ukraine with a dispute about falsification of election results leading to the ouster of a dictator; but what has occurred, as a result of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s earlier successes and recent failures, is the beginning of a revolution with many more far-reaching consequences …”

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/08/belarusians-expected-maidan-but-instead.html

“Belarus in the Balance: Attrition or Showdown?” - Moscow Times

“Putin’s Calculus on Belarus Reflects Three Critical Concerns.” - Paul Goble

“Belarus Is Putin’s to Lose.” - Nina L. Khrushcheva

“Different scenarios for the opposition movement that’s swept Belarus.” - Meduza

Belarus' Soviet-era economy still propped up by Moscow

(Deutsche Welle)

“Belarus has one of the lowest poverty rates in Europe, but economic growth is anemic due to archaic state-run industries and the ending of Russian energy subsidies. Its biggest political crisis is even more of a threat.”

https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-soviet-era-economy-still-propped-up-by-moscow/a-54694876

The popular Telegram messaging app is driving the Belarus protests

(Christian Science Monitor)

“One protestor, who follows a Telegram channel for rally logistics, political news, and words of encouragement, called the moment "a Telegram revolution.”

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2020/0821/This-social-media-app-is-driving-the-Belarus-protests

More than 20 news websites in Belarus appeared to be blocked Sunday 23. Aug.

(The Hill)

“News of the censorship comes amid a tumultuous time in the Eastern European country that has seen hundreds of thousands of protesters march after allegations that Lukashenka rigged the country's election to score 80 percent of the popular vote.”

https://thehill.com/policy/international/513248-over-20-news-websites-appear-blocked-in-belarus-as-opposition-leader

“Massive Rally In Belarus Called For End Of Lukashenko's Rule.” - RFERL

“Kuni 200,000 inimest astus Minskis rahumeelselt Lukašenkale vastu.” - Postimees

“Opposition calls for fresh strikes in state-owned companies.”  - DW

“Authorities in Belarus have detained two members of opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya's Coordination Council.” - RFERL

“Cops quit in Belarus: 'That's not why we entered the force’.” - DW

“Lukashenko orders army to defend borders ahead of protests.” - Euronews

“Dictator’s Dilemma: Why Lukashenko Is Still Clinging On.” - Carnegie

“People in Belarus Today Feel Much as Soviet Citizens Did at Time of August 1991 Putsch.” - Window on Eurasia

“Will Belarus get rid of its authoritarian ruler?” - CEPA

How the two flags of Belarus became symbols of confrontation

(The Guardian)

“Lukashenko regime supporters wave Soviet-era green and red banners but Minsk is shrouded in red and white.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/22/how-the-two-flags-of-belarus-became-symbols-of-confrontation

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Screenshot of a Putin satire Twitter account