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04 March, 2022

 


“The expansion of NATO was the most successful, if not the only truly successful piece of American foreign policy of the last 30 years.” 

“… It created a zone of safety and security for 60 million people in a part of the world that had been the source of two world wars. It was begun because the nations of the region—Poland, the Baltic states, and others—were afraid of the language of Russian revanchism, which began in the early ’90s.”
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“There’s a speech that the then-president of Estonia Lennart Meri (see article below) gave in 1994, when he talks about precisely that. … We would be having this fight in East Germany right now if we hadn’t done it.”
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“Ukraine was not in favor of joining NATO a decade ago. The reason why Ukraine wants to join NATO now is because they’re afraid of Russia. Russia has created this sense of fear in all its neighbors by its aggressive actions. If that weren’t the case, there would be no NATO. There would be no need for it. So Russia has created this need for NATO and has made Ukraine envious of the relative safety and security—not just the relative, the genuine—safety and security next door.” - Anne Applebaum, Journalist and author




When Vladimir Putin couldn’t take the truth spoken by Lennart Meri
By Paul Goble, Estonian World 
30. January 2022 | originally printed 19. July 2017
“The late Estonian president, Lennart Meri, once delivered a remarkable address in Hamburg, Germany, that caused the then-deputy mayor of St. Petersburg, Vladimir Putin, to stomp out of the hall. That action, as German officials have pointed out, was unprecedented in the centuries during which this dinner has been held and raises questions to this day about Putin and more generally about Russia and its relationship to Europe.”
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“That event occurred on 25. February 1994 at the Matthiae-Supper of Hansa cities and their representatives. Among the honoured guests that day were Meri and a relatively junior Russian official, the deputy mayor of St Petersburg, Vladimir Putin, who shocked those in attendance by his boorish behaviour. …”


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Friday 4. March


No threat of military aggression against Estonia at present
(Baltic Times)
“Maj. Gen. Veiko-Vello Palm, deputy commander of the Estonian defense forces, reaffirmed on Friday that there is currently no immediate threat of military aggression against Estonia.”
—
"We haven't seen such emptiness, in a military sense, behind our eastern border for 30 years," Palm said, referring to Russia having deployed its forces to attack Ukraine.”







Politsei pöörab suurt tähelepanu võimalikele provokatsioonidele
[Estonian police are paying close attention to possible provocations.]
(Pealinn)
“Politsei- ja piirivalveameti peadirektori Elmar Vaheri sõnul pöörab politsei praeguses kriisis suurt tähelepanu võimalikele provokatsioonidele, teatab BNS. Vaher selgitas, et näiteks pälvib kindlasti politsei tähelepanu provotseerivate sümboolikate kasutamine. “Näiteks Z tähte kandev sõiduk kindlasti peatatakse ja palutakse see sümboolika eemaldada. Ja loomulikult viiakse läbi isikute kontroll,” ütles Vaher. Ta lisas, et politsei suurema tähelepanu all on ka Ukraina ja Vene saatkonnad.”



BLOGI: Üheksas sõjapäev
(Postimees)
“Sõjast kirjutamine viib nüüd Venemaal vangi, suletud on ka Facebook ja Twitter.”








Interview: Fiona Hill, veteran Russia watcher
(Politico)
“Hill spent many years studying history, and in the conversation, she repeatedly traced how long arcs and trends of European history are converging on Ukraine right now. We are already, she said, in the middle of a third World War, whether we’ve fully grasped it or not. “Sadly, we are treading back through old historical patterns that we said that we would never permit to happen again.”



Extraordinary meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs with Finland, Sweden and the EU 
(NATO)
“In addition to the thousands more troops that Allies have already sent to the eastern part of the Alliance, NATO is deploying its Response Force for the first time, it has over 130 jets at high alert and over 200 ships from the High North to the Mediterranean. “We will continue to do what it takes to protect and defend every inch of NATO territory”, said Secretary General Stoltenberg. ... “We are not part of this conflict”, said Mr. Stoltenberg, adding, however, that NATO has “a responsibility to ensure it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine. That would be even more devastating and dangerous.”







Eile öösel oli küberrünnak Estonian Worldi vastu
(Postimees)
“Eile öösel sattus küberrünnaku alla veebiväljaanne Estonian World. «Esimest korda meie 10-aastase ajaloo vältel. Täna hommikul oli leht täiesti maas, hetkel püüab meie tehniline tiim lehte uuesti laivi saada ning loodetavasti selgub ka rünnaku päritolu,» säutsus Estonian World.”



Estonian government temporarily restores border control on Estonian-Latvian border
(Baltic Times)
“… for the purpose of better organizing the entry into the country of the people fleeing from the war in Ukraine and their first contact with the Estonian state, spokespeople for the Ministry of the Interior said. Minister of the Interior Kristian Jaani said that by restoring temporary border control, the state will assist Ukrainians fleeing from the war already on its border.”



There Could Be Millions of Ukrainians Fleeing Putin’s Bombs
(Foreign Policy)
“The scale and pace of the Ukrainian refugee exodus—more than 1 million within only a week—dwarfs even the worst of recent humanitarian crises and is quickly approaching the epic dislocations last seen in Europe in 1945. In Syria, it took two years before refugee flows reached a similar level. In 2015 and 2016, the European Union took in 1 million asylum-seekers each year from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere, and this so-called migration crisis quickly turned into an existential issue for the continent. Ukraine, with twice the population of Syria and three times its territory, could generate over 10 million refugees and internally displaced people in the coming months and years.”



Putin’s Strategic Mistakes in Ukraine have Devastating Consequences for Russia
By Paul Goble
“Vladimir Putin made five strategic mistakes that led him to his broadening of his invasion of Ukraine, mistakes that collectively will have five devastating consequences for the Russian Federation for decades to come, according to London-based Russian analyst Vladimir Pastukhov. The mistakes are easily listed …”






“What If Russia Loses?” - Foreign Affairs

“What If Russia Wins?” - Foreign Affairs




How Finland held off the Russians 
and won a moral victory — with lessons for Ukraine
(Washington Post)
“Already on the second day of the invasion, the New York Times wondered how quickly the voracious Soviets dictator would reannex Finland. However, as became clear as the war continued into its second week and the Russian assault stalled — just like the Russian attack against Ukraine — the Finns did not collapse. …”









Thursday 3. March


Estonia's history of song and political resistance
By Benjamin Bathke, Deutsche Welle
“Estonians have long used choral singing to celebrate and preserve their language and traditions under centuries of Danish, Swedish, German and Soviet occupation. It remains is a unifying force nowadays – not the least in integrating the large Russian-speaking minority that remained in Estonia after the end of Soviet rule and now makes up around a quarter of all 1.3 million people in Estonia.”
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“Recently, Estonia's long-standing tradition of music gained recognition by UNESCO when its capital, Tallinn, was one of a dozen new cities selected to join the ranks of Auckland, Hanover, Kansas City, Varanasi and 47 other cities that make up the UNESCO Cities of Music Network. …”




Peeter Espak: kuidas ohjeldada Kremli hüääni
(ERR)
“Suletud, infosulus ja suure müüriga isoleeritud riik ongi Putini unistuseks, sest see on tema nooruse ideaalide juurde tagasipöördumine. Jõudmine taas paradiisi, kus KGB agent ja ringkäenduslik nomenklatuur oligi toitumisahela tipus ning kus välismõjud selle eliidi eluolu mõjutada ei suutnud.”



Peterburi bussiliinil on nõudlus hüppeliselt kasvanud
(Postimees)
“Bussiettevõte Lux Express kinnitas Postimehele, et Euroopa ja Venemaa vahelise lennuliikluse peatumine on toonud reisijate tulva Peterburi-Tallinna bussiliinile. Lux Expressi kinnitusel kasutavad praegu bussiliini enim Euroopa riikide kodanikud Venemaalt pääsemiseks, kuid ka Vene kodanikest reisijate arv on kasvamas.”



NATO defense posture doesn't mean Estonia under direct threat
(ERR)
“NATO has shifted from a deterrence to a defense posture - this does not mean that Estonia is now under direct threat by Russia; rather, it means that preparations are underway in case an actual threat should materialize, Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform) said on ETV's "Esimene stuudio" on Tuesday night.”



Estonia’s Leader Stands Out as She Grapples With the Current European Crisis
(Pass Blue)
“Prime Minister Kaja Kallas of Estonia, a small Baltic nation with a tragic history of living with Russia, has become a leading European voice demanding that no breathing space or second chances be given to Vladimir Putin as his troops run into unexpected fierce resistance from Ukrainians.”
—
“We must not forget,” she has said repeatedly on the anniversaries of deportations and purges.”



Tallinn lõpetab koostöö Moskva ja Peterburiga
(ERR)
“Tallinna linnavolikogu mõistis neljapäeval üheselt hukka Vene föderatsiooni sõjalise agressiooni Ukraina vastu ning avaldas toetust Ukraina rahvale. Lisaks lõpetatakse koostöö Venemaa omavalitsustega.”



Eesti sadamad ootavad Vene laevade tõkestamiseks volitusi
(Postimees)
“Kui palju on Venemaa ettevõtetele kuuluvaid või neile tulu teenivaid laevu praegu Eesti vetes, ei osanud ükski riigiamet vastata. Laevade tuvastussüsteemi AIS põhjal töötava veebilehe Marinetraffic andmetel oli Eesti sadamates ja vetes eile neli Vene lipuga laeva, lisaks veel mõni Libeeria ja teiste mugavuslippude all seilavat laeva, mille nimi võib viidata Vene omanikule. Näiteks Paldiski Lõunasadama naftakai ääres seisis Venemaaga seotud, kuid Libeeria lipu all sõitev LPG-tanker Sibur Voronezh. Paljassaare sadamas seisis Vene lipuga kaubalaev Valeri Kharlamov ning Muugal oli Venemaal registreeritud nafta-keemiatanker NP Dikson.”



Estonian Cargo Ship Sinks Near Ukrainian Port City Of Odesa
(ERR | RFERL | Euronews)
“All six crew members were subsequently safely accounted for, the Estonian foreign ministry said Thursday. None of the six were Estonian citizens, the ministry added.”
—
“The vessel, the Helt, is thought to have struck a sea mine, and was one of many reported to have been hijacked by Russian naval forces as a type of human shield, ahead of an amphibious landing planned for Odesa.”
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Estonia Calls Russian Actions 'Precursor to Genocide’
(Bloomberg)
“Estonia's Foreign Minister Eva-Maria Liimets told a United Nations Human Rights Council that Russia's actions in Ukraine looked like "a precursor to genocide."



"Ole valmis!”: Estonia starts mapping out potential bomb shelters
(ERR)
“While the military and officials confirm that Estonia is currently not under direct military threat, resources such as the Be Prepared! ("Ole valmis!") app created by the Women's Voluntary Defense Organization (Naiskodukaitse) are helping residents prepare for emergencies.”






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Putin’s War
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Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is against Estonian volunteers fighting in Ukraine
(ERR)
“Speaking at the government's weekly press conference on Thursday, Kallas spoke about Estonians who want to fight on the side of the Ukrainians against Russia. Latvia and Denmark have recently given their citizens the go-ahead to do so. However, she said Estonians are also needed to defend Estonia.”
—
“The prime minister said the government has agreed to ban people from Estonia or Estonians from joining the Belarusian or Russian forces. This applies to all people staying in Estonia, but also to Estonian citizens abroad. Violation of this sanction is punishable by a fine or up to five years' imprisonment.”



The Baltics Should Be Worried
By Krista Viksnins, CEPA
“Leaders on both sides of the Atlantic have repeatedly reassured the Baltic nations that they have nothing to fear and NATO will come to their aid should they need to invoke Article 5, but given the recent historic memory of Russian occupation and oppression, it is hardly surprising that the peoples of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania feel exposed.” 
—
“:Despite huge strides over the last few decades, the little Baltic states have good reason to be concerned. For now, Russia is busy with Ukraine. That may change and NATO should consider greatly expended measures to deter.”



Russia’s Looming Economic Collapse
(The Atlantic)
“This is terra incognita for economic policy. No country has ever faced this kind of global freeze-out. The implications are hard to predict, but several consequences are already apparent in the form of bank runs and long ATM lines. On Monday, the London stock listings of several Russian banks fell by more than 50 percent. The ruble is trading like a junk cryptocurrency, collapsing more than 30 percent on Monday, and as it weakens, the price of certain imports will rise sharply. …”



Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
4. March 2022
Or:


















The Impossible Suddenly Became Possible
By Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic
“Right now many Russians don’t even realize what is happening in Ukraine. State television has not yet admitted that the Russian military has attacked Kyiv with rockets, bombed a Holocaust memorial, or destroyed parts of central Kharkiv and Mariupol. Instead, the official propagandists are telling Russians that they are carrying out a police action in Ukraine’s far-eastern provinces. The audience gets no information about casualties, or war damage, or costs. …”
—
“And yet, there is a strong, consistent drumbeat of alternative information. Yury Dud, a celebrity blogger with 5 million Instagram followers, has posted a photograph of a bombed-out building in Ukraine. … Millions of Russians know, because they have friends and relatives in Ukraine, that Putin has invaded a neighbor whom they don’t consider their enemy. Some have called those friends, weeping over the telephone, to apologize.”



Putin’s War Is Europe’s 9/11
(Foreign Policy)
“Suddenly, Europeans are starting to understand why their more than two decades of talking to Putin has come to nothing - their diplomacy, however well-intentioned, lacked the foundation of hard power. Europeans see war as a curse of the past. Putin does not. Since the Europeans were talking from a position of weakness, not strength, Putin saw war in Ukraine (and in Georgia before) as a better option than talks. He reckoned that by waging war he could probably get what he wanted, because Europeans would not stand in his way - while in negotiations he would have had to compromise.”







Wednesday 2. March


Vene oligarhid ei julge riigis Putini poliitikat muuta
(ERR)
“Targad oligarhid saavad aru, kuidas siin asjad käivad. Lollid pole enam oligarhid. Kõik kellele olukord ei meeldi, on riigist põgenenud või vanglas," ütles Kremli ametnik.”



Opinion: Estonia did try to warn you
By Eerik-Niiles Kross, EU Observer
“This is the kind of war that occupied Estonia hoped for, in 1945 and for years after that, until almost all hope was lost. It was hoped for when Russia came to "liberate" us - like it now claims to "liberate" Ukraine.”
—
“It is a war where Western democracies at long last do rise to the defence of justice, freedom and their values. All the nations to the east of the River Oder suddenly feel as if a burden has been lifted from our shoulders.”
—
"Now, finally they will understand us," we Estonians feel. Now we no longer need to explain - shamefacedly - that perhaps, indeed , a grave peril does in fact issue from Moscow. …”



Ühtegi: Ukraina vastupanu näitab, et Kaitseliidu käsitlus maakaitsest on õige
(ERR)
“See on totaalne vastupanu. Me räägime mittelineaarsest sõjapidamisest. Territoriaalkaitse hõlmab laialt kogu territooriumi. Rünnatakse kõike, mida rünnata annab. See tähendab ka seda, et vastupanu on mitmekülgne, ei ole ainult relvastatud vastupanu. Sinna juurde käib ka toetusmehhanism, see, et sõdurid saavad süüa, saavad hoitud, saavad abi. See tähendab ka seda, et kohalik elanikkond osutab passiivset vastupanu. Kasutatakse ära kõiki vabatahtlikke, antakse neile relvad ja sellega on siis võimalik teatud hetkedel, nendes kohtades, kus on keeruline situatsioon, märkimisväärselt suurendada ajutiselt vastupanuvõimet.” - Kaitseliidu ülem, brigaadikindral Riho Ühtegi



Soome ja Rootsi harjutasid Gotlandil merelt tuleva ohu tõrjumist
(ERR)
“Soome osales kolmapäeval Gotlandil Rootsi korraldatud ühisõppusel, vahendas uudistesaade AK. Rootsi teatel harjutati õppusel rünnaku tõrjumist merelt lähtuva ohu eest.”





How many British tanks and troops are in Estonia?
(UK Defense Journal)
“The British force in Estonia will soon number over 1,700 troops, 48 Warrior Infantry Fighting Vehicles and 24 Challenger 2 Main Battle Tanks.”



War in Ukraine: The European Union evolves as Putin attacks
(Finnish Institute of International Affairs)
“The outcome of the war in Ukraine remains open. … The fact that Vladimir Putin’s Russia is ready to aggressively wield military power in the EU’s immediate neighbourhood needs to be acknowledged, adding to the larger trend of a growing need for Europeans to take responsibility for security in Europe.”






Tuesday 1. March


ERR Kiievis: linnas on veel poolsada Eesti kodanikku
(ERR)
“Kiievisse on jäänud umbes poolsada Eesti kodanikku ning sama palju Eesti alalise elamisloaga inimest. Eesti kodanikud Ivetta ja Igor saabusid Kiievisse turistidena 23. veebruaril. 25. veebruaril olid nad sunnitud kesklinna rendikorterist kolima oma sõprade juurde Kiievi äärelinna. Nende eesmärk on nüüd kodumaale naasta.”
—
"Praegu me ei näe mingisuguseid võimalusi, sest autot meil ei ole. Kui sõpradel oleks võimalik meile auto anda, siis meil ei ole kütust. Kütusega on probleemid. Me ei saa iseseisvalt jõuda Ukraina piirini, kust me saaksime turvaliselt koju. Ainuke võimalus on minna rongijaama, kus toimub paanika, kus peab ootama võib-olla mitu päeva seda rongi. Ma ei tea, kas meid sinna peale võetakse ja kas võetakse meest ka, sest oli kuulda, et võetakse ainult naisi lastega. Kuhu me jõuame ja kui kaua peab veel seal ootama, seda me ei tea, ilmselt mitu päeva. Praegu me arvame, et siin on turvalisem, kuna siin on varjupaik olemas ja me kardame üksinda kuskile liikuda;" rääkis Ivetta.”





Kallas: Läänemere regiooni julgeolek vajab NATO tugevdatud kohalolu
(Postimees)
“Kallase sõnul on julgeolekuolukord Euroopas tundmatuseni muutunud ning Euroopa pinnal käib sõda, mille sarnast nägime viimati II maailmasõja ajal. «200 000 Putini sõdurit ründavad rahumeelset riiki. Pommitavad elumaju, haiglaid, koole, lasteaedu – panevad toime kõige hirmsamaid kuritegusid,» lausus Kallas. «Venemaa juhtidest on saanud sulaselged agressorid ja Vene riigist paariariik, mis tuleb poliitiliselt ja majanduslikult isoleerida.”
—
“Peaministri sõnul vajab kaasagressor Valgevene režiim samamoodi karme meetmeid. «Ukraina on teatanud, et ka Lukašenka väed on sisenenud Ukraina territooriumile. Seeläbi on Valgevenest saanud agressor,» sõnas Kallas.”







NATO Secretary General, British Prime Minister visit Tapa, Estonia
(NATO, ERR, Office of the President, others)
“Stoltenberg was accompanied by General Tod D. Wolters, Commander of NATO's Allied Command Europe and Chairman of the NATO Military Committee Rob Baue.
The NATO chief met with President Alar Karis, Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform), foreign minister Eva-Maria Liimets (Center), defense minister Kalle Laane (Reform) and Commander of the Defense Forces Lieutenant General Martin Herem.”
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Mida Venemaa president Putin oma musta portfelliga teha võib?
(Postimees)
“Soome välispoliitika instituudi uurimisjuht Mikael Wigell selgitas, et Venemaa tõstis tuumajõudude valmisolekut ühe astme võrra ning seega ollakse veel üsna kaugel olukorrast, kus Venemaa hakkaks tuumarelvi kasutama.”
—
“Venemaa teade, et tuumaväed on kõrgendatud valmisolekus, ei ole veel märkimisväärne sõjaline meede,» nentis Soome välispoliitika instituudi teadur Jyri Lavikainen. Ekspertide arvates Venemaa lollitab ja hirmutab Ukrainat, et takistada lääne laiemat sekkumist sõtta, otsida paremaid läbirääkimispositsioone ja hoida maailma ärevil. Mikael Wigell lisas, et tuumarelvade kasutamise oht on veel kaugel.”



How serious are Vladimir Putin's nuclear threats?
(Deutsche Welle)
“On Sunday, Vladimir Putin ordered his nuclear deterrent forces to be placed on a “special regime of combat duty”. The Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, has now clarified what this meant: the increased manpower devoted to Russia’s strategic nuclear triad: land-based strategic nuclear rocket forces, sea-based nuclear deterrents in the northern and Pacific fleets and its fleet of long-range strategic bomber aircraft that can carry nuclear weapons.”
—
“This is not a big change in the state of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, which remains on a certain level of readiness even during peacetime. US and UK officials have suggested that they have observed no change in Russia’s force posture. This means, for example, that they have not observed the dispersal of land-based missiles, the loading of aircraft with nuclear warheads, or movement in the central storages where Russia keeps its sub-strategic nuclear warheads.”
—
“Putin is likely doing this to scare the West into giving him concessions. This is his typical brinkmanship."
—



Air Corridors to Kyiv Closed
(Politico)
“With the air corridors to Kyiv closed by Russian anti-aircraft weapons and fighter jets, U.S. and European powers have started pushing weapons into the country by road. Poland, Estonia and Latvia were some of the first to act, sending ammunition, Javelin anti-armor weapons, fuel and medical supplies to the Ukraine border for hand-off to Ukrainian forces.”
—
“On Monday, Finland announced it would join the club, pledging 2,500 assault rifles, ammunition, 1,500 anti-tank weapons and 70,000 ration packages to Ukraine. Sweden is also readying a large arms and aid package, announcing the upcoming delivery of 135,000 field rations, 5,000 helmets, body armor and 5,000 anti-tank weapons.”



Estonia has overtaken Poland to become the most competitive IT ecosystem in Central and Eastern Europe
(Emerging Europe)
“Estonia leads emerging Europe in 13 of 47 parameters (and in seven others the country ranked in the top three), as well as topping one of four broad categories, business environment.
“Estonia is undoubtedly a major tech nation with a strong existing talent pool and great prospects for the future,” says Andrew Wrobel, founding partner at Emerging Europe and one of the authors of the report.”






And Finally: 
Goodbye RT


RT sees its influence diminish as TV providers and tech companies take action against the Russia-backed outlet
(CNN)
“The actions taken by television providers and technology companies against RT (Russia Today) have dealt one of the largest blows to the outlet in its history, reducing the Kremlin's ability to peddle its narrative at a pivotal time when its international standing has fallen as a result of its unprovoked war on Ukraine.”
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“YouTube, TikTok, and Meta, the parent company of Facebook (FB) and Instagram, each separately announced on Monday and Tuesday some of the harshest measures taken thus far against RT. The social media companies said they had moved to block RT in Europe. The outlet's accounts will no longer be accessible to users on that continent through those companies' services, depriving RT of crucial venues to advance its messaging. …”













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