Is U.S. Air Superiority Stopping Russia From Attacking NATO?
(National Interest)
“A cursory comparison between the Russian Air Force and NATO’s force sizes and capabilities suggests that Russia could not compete with the United States and NATO in the air. Not only does Russia reportedly operate a very small number of fifth-generation Su-57 stealth fighters when compared with the hundreds of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters operated by the West, but Russia's force of advanced Su-34 and Su-30 fourth-generation fighters is not likely to pose an extremely credible threat to NATO.’
—
“Therefore, U.S. and NATO air assets forward-positioned to Russia’s west may well be succeeding in the core mission of deterring against possible Russian attacks on NATO.n That's why you have seen the deployments of F-35, F-16s, B-52s to a variety of different NATO nations. There's a very strong interaction and unified set of command and control architectures that are in place to deter any thought from Putin or his Russian military from expanding this conflict outside of Ukraine that might take on NATO.”
CNBC’s Silvia Amaro reported from
Ämari air base in Estonia
(CNBC - 17. March 2022)
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| Screenshot |
“France deploys fighter jets to Estonia.” - Estonian World
‘Rest now, while we can.’ At Tapa, NATO troops prepare for Putin’s next move
(Politico Europe)
“‘We have prepared for Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and all the Baltic Sea region to face the same kind of military incursion,’ says base commander Colonel Andrus Merilo. Outside Merilo’s office, on the edge of the parade ground, British troops could be seen shouldering what looked like a batch of new rocket launchers, testing the sights and getting the feel of the kit. The flags of NATO, Estonia, the U.K., the EU, France and Denmark, all of which have troops here, flapped atop poles above their heads. …”
“Latvia should have permanent NATO presence, says Latvian President Egils Levits.” - Latvian Broadcasting
“Lithuania, a Vulnerable NATO Link, Readies for Putin.” - New York Times
__________
Friday 18. March
Sofi Oksanen: Putin ei ole hull
(Postimees)
“Vladimir Putin ei ole peast segi läinud. Tõenäoliselt ei ole tal ajuvähk, kuigi inimesed on viimasel ajal kahtlusi väljendanud ning oleme näinud uudistes psühhiaatreid ja tugitoolipsühholooge selle diktaatori meeleseisundit kommenteerimas. Spekulatsioonid tõmbavad aga tähelepanu kõrvale peamiselt tõsiasjalt, et Venemaa seisukohalt on selle türanni tegevus osa loogilisest kontiinumist …”
Eesti saadab riigist välja kolm Vene saatkonna töötajat
(ERR)
“Eesti kuulutas kolm Venemaa suursaatkonna diplomaatilise staatusega töötajat persona non grata'ks. Välisministeeriumi teatel tegelesid need inimesed otseselt ja aktiivselt Eesti julgeoleku õõnestamisega ning Venemaa sõjategevust õigustava propaganda levitamisega.”
“Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania expel 10 Russian diplomats.” - Jerusalem Post
Moscow Increasingly Furious at Baltic Responses to Putin’s War in Ukraine
By Paul Goble
“In Moscow’s Vzglyad, commentator Stanislav Leshchenko … denounces proposals in Estonia and Latvia to strip Russians living there who are not citizens of their residence permits and possibly deport them, even though he immediately concedes that the governments of the two countries have rejected any such possibility.”
—
“Leshchenko says that such extreme proposals have opened the way for less extreme ones that will lead to real steps by the authorities across the Baltic states to limit the freedoms of ethnic Russians living there who are doing no more than supporting the policies of Vladimir Putin in Ukraine.”
Helsinki train station: Russians tell why they're fleeing to Europe
(Time)
“A handful of buslines offer service to Finland or Estonia, but the Allegro train from Saint Petersburg to Helsinki, which currently runs twice a day and seats 350 passengers, is the only remaining option by rail. A few days after the war in Ukraine began, those trains began selling out.”
“More than 200,000 Russian Citizens have Fled Russia Since Putin Began His War in Ukraine.” - Paul Goble
“Putin’s War Is Driving Russians Out.” - New York Times
“Putin Likely to Turn on Non-Russians at Home in Wake of Ukrainian War.” - Window on Eurasia
“We Have to Run: Inside the Exodus of Moscow.” - Rolling Stone, 5. March
Oleme sõjas. On maraton, mitte sprint
(Diplomaatia)
“Vladimir Putini valla pääsetud jõhker ja alusetu sõda Ukrainas on koondanud Euroopa agressori ohvrit toetama. Samas on kerkinud Euroopa ja NATO ette mitu ränka valikut, lausa eksistentsiaalset dilemmat.”
Opinion: Boycott Russian energy now
By Oleg Ustenko, Estonian World
“Policymakers and the public can either boycott Russian energy fully today, to stop the invasion immediately; or they can watch Russian forces commit one outrage after another …”
Thursday 17. March
Eestisse on saabunud 23,886 sõjapõgenikku
(ERR, 17. märts)
“Politsei- ja piirivalveameti andmetel on 16. märtsi seisuga Eestisse saabunud 23,886 sõjapõgenikku Ukrainast, kelle seas on 8,642 alaealist. Alates 27. veebruarist Eestisse tulnud sõjapõgenikest 6,067 on olnud transiidil ehk Eestisse soovib jääda 17,819 inimest. 17,819 Eestisse jääda soovijast on 39 % alaealised.”
Riigikogu valis esimeheks taas Jüri Ratase
(ERR)
“Riigikogu valis neljapäeval taas esimeheks Keskerakonna esimehe Jüri Ratase, kes sai 53 häält. Aseesimeestena jätkavad Hanno Pevkur ja Martin Helme. Ratase vastu kandideerinud Isamaa juht Helir-Valdor Seeder sai 36 häält.”
Estonian Rescue Board creating evacuation plans / shelters for cities
(ERR)
“An evacuation plan for Estonia's cities is being created by the Rescue Board and local governments should areas become uninhabitable. The agency believes a network of early warning sirens and marked shelters should be made. …”
Head of Russian Orthodox Church in Estonia signs anti-war statement
(ERR)
“Head of the Russian Orthodox Church in Estonia Metropolitan Yevgeny has given his signatory to a statement condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The statement is signed by leaders of Estonian Council of Churches (Eesti Kirikute Nõukogu) member denominations, including some found in Ukraine itself.”
“Moscow Losing Church War in Ukraine and More Broadly.” - Jamestown Org
“Moskva Patriarhaadi Eesti Õigeusu Kiriku metropoliit liitus Ukraina sõda hukkamõistva avaldusega.” - ERR
“The Patriarch who's in lockstep with Putin.” - EU Observer
Finland: Support for Nato membership rises to 62%
(Helsinki Times, 15. March)
“The war has brought about a momentous shift in public views on defence and security policy in Finland. Support for Nato membership had hovered at around 25 per cent for decades prior to the invasion. … Nearly two-thirds (65%) of the respondents contrastively stated that a referendum is unnecessary.”
“Are Sweden and Finland moving to apply for NATO membership?” - Washington Post Opinion
The Strengthening Crescent Of NATO Nations ‘Around’ Russia
(Forbes, 2. March))
“The Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) have largely spoken to Russia and NATO with one unified voice, clearly articulating their concern about and opposition to Russian influence. Poland too, has cooperated closely with the West, like the Baltics spending the NATO-requested 2% of its GDP on defense. Its ethnically homogeneous population and unified political culture are powerful bulwarks against Russian hybrid warfare tactics.”
—
“Their resistance is complicated by the Russian exclave in Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland on the Baltic Sea, where Russian missile systems threaten NATO’s ability to reinforce the Baltics during a conflict or control the skies.”
“NATO Defense Ministers Urge Changes to Alliance Collective Defense.” - U.S. Department of Defense
“War in Ukraine is ‘electroshock’ for NATO, says Macron.” - Politico-Europe
“Nato rethinks the security of its Eastern Flank.” - Intellinews
“US has 100,000 troops in Europe for first time since 2005.” - Stars and Stripes
Lithuania fears being ‘cut off’ by Kaliningrad
(MSN)
“… in the case of the Ukraine invasion expanding into Nato territory. … The country, which borders the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad as well as a large stretch of Belarus, is among the European countries most exposed to Vladimir Putin’s aggression.”
__________
It’s Putin’s War
__________
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, 18. March 2022
(ISW)
[ISW conducts detailed, open-source intelligence analysis.]
Pro-war rally on the anniversary of Russia’s Crimea annexation
By Max Seddon via Twitter, 18. March
“Putin was on his own special giant stage so nobody can get within 20 yards of him even in a massive stadium."
—
[Many Twitter comments revolve around the theme ‘A modern day Nuremberg rally’.]”
 |
| Signs behind Putin say “For a world without Nazism / For Russia” |
“Annual Crimea celebration part of massive propaganda effort to unite Russians behind the war.” - Washington Post
Putin lays out his demands in phone call with Turkish President Erdogan
(BBC, 18. March)
“Turkey has positioned itself with great care to be the go-between with Russia and Ukraine - and this seems to be paying off. … Chief among the demands is an acceptance by Ukraine that it should be neutral and should not apply to join Nato. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has already conceded this. … Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia. There would have to be protection for the Russian language in Ukraine. And there is something called ‘de-Nazification’. …”
Ukraine will not join Nato, says president Volodymyr Zelenskiy
(Reuters | Guardian)
“… in a significant concession on a day when Kyiv was pounded by Russian shells and missiles and the invading force tightened its grip on the capital.”
—
Europeans support Ukraine joining the EU - but not yet
(Politico)
“Leaders of Central European countries have tended to be most favorable to Ukrainian accession to the bloc. The presidents of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia last month called on the EU to give Ukraine the “highest political support” …”
“Speakers of Baltic parlts express support to Ukraine's EU membership.” - The Baltic Times
Only NATO Can Save Putin
By Tom Nichols, The Atlantic
“Russian President Vladimir Putin is in trouble. Despite his limited gains on the ground in Ukraine, he is facing strategic defeat in a war that no one would have expected him to lose. The vaunted Russian army has turned out to be a hollow force whose major skill sets seem to be bullying its own conscripts and killing foreign civilians. The Russian air force has underperformed even the lowest expectations; perhaps Russian pilots should have spent more time getting training and logging flying hours instead of doing fancy maneuvers at foreign air shows.”
—
“Only one military force in the world can save Putin from utter humiliation now: NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. NATO intervention in Russia’s war on Ukraine could halt that country’s barbarous attacks. But it would mean war between Putin’s regime and the West, and this war would be such a gift to Putin that we should expect that he will soon do everything he can to provoke it. The U.S. and Europe should resist such provocations.”
“NATO should intervene if Russia uses weapons of mass destruction, Estonia’s chief of defense says.” - CNBC
“Why Putin Miscalculated in Ukraine.” - The National Interest
“The Clock Is Running Out on Putin’s Invasion.” - The Bulwark
“Vladimir Putin Has Fallen Into the Dictator Trap.” - The Atlantic
“Don’t Blame the West for Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine.” - The New Yorker
“What the use of Russian conscripts tells us about the war in Ukraine.” - Politico-Europe
Putin will go to extremes to cement his legacy, warns Finland's ex-PM
(CBC Radio)
“Right now Putin has a stated vision of a historic Russia from the 1800s, which means one language, one religion and one leader. And he's also said that he wants to take over Ukraine, he wants to push back the frontiers of NATO in eastern and central Europe, and he wants to prevent Finnish and Swedish NATO membership.”
“World without Russia.” - The Institute of Modern Russia
“Mariupol is now just hell with 2,500 dead.” - CNN, 15. March
“Russian advances continue to be stalled near Kyiv.” - US Defense Dept.
“Bogged-Down Russian Troops Resort to Deadly Cluster Munitions.” - Foreign Policy
“Russian Soldiers Not Welcomed In Ukrainian Village.” - RFERL, 15. March
“300,000 volunteer hackers come together to fight Russia.” - The Guardian
“Inside Chernobyl, 200 Exhausted Ukrainians Toil Round the Clock at Russian Gunpoint.” - Wall Street Journal
Hunting the Invader: Ukraine’s Special Operations Troops
(CEPA)
“Ukrainian special operations forces (SOF) are emerging as a pivotal component of the Kyiv government’s strategy to erode the sustainability of the Russian invasion by raising its human and materiel costs through a combination of guerrilla tactics, mobile defense, and ad-hoc counterattacks. Ukraine’s decision to establish a Special Operations Command (SOCOM) as a separate service branch came at the end of 2015 following a string of military setbacks in the south-eastern region of Donbas …”
Lukashenko dodges and weaves over joining Russia in attacking Ukraine
(Politico-Europe)
“Alexander Lukashenko owes a massive debt to the Kremlin, and that check might be coming due. The authoritarian leader of Belarus only survived in power thanks to financial and military support from Russia, which allowed him to ride out massive public protests following 2020’s fraudulent presidential election. But now Russian President Vladimir Putin is hunting for more troops …”
The evil side of the letter ‘Z’
(Meduza)
“The first photos and videos featuring Russian military vehicles with an unknown marking on their sides appeared on social media several weeks before the start of the war. Most often, it was the letter Z, either inside of a box or without it; there were also V’s. The letters were most likely tactical markings referring to Russia’s various military districts. Then, in a matter of days, Z and V (but especially Z) essentially became the official symbol of Moscow’s “special military operation.” Whose idea was it to make Z one of the key elements of Russian propaganda? No one knows for sure.”
Tuntud ajakirjanikud lahkuvad Vene telekanalitest
(Postimees)
“Aastast 2006 NTVs töötanud ajakirjanik Lilia Gildejeva kirjutas sotsiaalmeedias, et enne sellest teatamist sõitis ta välismaale. ‘Kõigepealt sõitsin ära, kartsin, et lihtsalt niisama ei lubata, alles pärast seda kirjutasin selle avalduse,’ teatas Gildejeva.”
—
“Ajakirjanik Roman Super andis teada veel kahe ajakirjaniku lahkumisest. Anna Agalakova lahkus telekanalist Pervõi Kanal ja Vadim Glusker NTVst. ‘Sõbrad Pervõi Kanalist teatavad, et pärast eilset Ovsjannikova väljaastumist on telekanalis kohutav segadus. Kõiki tööle tulevaid inimesi kontrollitakse hoolega,’ teatas Super.”
__________
Wednesday 16. March
Stoltenberg: NATO tahab idatiivale oluliselt rohkem vägesid paigutada
(Postimees)
“NATO kaitseministrid tegid täna alliansi sõjalistele juhtidele ülesandeks koostada plaan alliansi idatiiva tugevdamiseks Venemaa invasiooni järel Ukrainasse, ütles NATO peasekretär Jens Stoltenberg. Stoltenbergi sõnul tuleb kokku panna plaan ‘pikaajalise kollektiivkaitse ja heidutuse uuendamiseks.”
How can NATO and the EU protect Ukrainians?
(Estonian World)
[Opinions from Riho Terras, Urmas Paet, Oliver Mõru, and Kristi Raik.]
Interview: Eva-Maria Liimets, minister for foreign affairs of Estonia
(CNBC)
“We travel to Ukraine to show our support.”
Estonian tech regulator to restrict access to seven Russian websites
(ERR | BNN)
“Estonia's Consumer Protection and Technical Regulatory Authority … is requiring communications companies to block and restrict end user access to seven websites.”
—
30,000 NATO Troops In Norway For "Cold Response" Military Exercises
(Real Clear Politics)
“30,000 troops, 200 aircraft, and 50 vessels from 27 nations will take part in the “Cold Response 2022 Exercise”, the largest exercise involving NATO troops this year.”
“Major NATO Maneuvers Kick off in Norway.” - The Defense Post
“UK's Largest Warship to Lead NATO's Maritime Task Force in the Arctic.” - High North News
“The exercise shows NATO’s ability to deploy tens of thousands of forces to the High North.” - NATO Press Release
Tuesday 15. March
Estonia calls for 'immediate' establishment of no-fly zone
(Ukrinform | Estonian World)
“Estonia is the first NATO member nation to formally call for the implementation of a no-fly zone amid Russia’s war on Ukraine.”
—
“Latvian Saeima supports no-fly zone over Ukraine.” - Latvian Broadcasting
Finno-Ugric Activist in Estonia Urges Russia’s Finno-Ugric Peoples Not to Support Putin’s War
By Paul Goble
“Oliver Loode, a Finno-Ugric activist who heads the URALIC Center for Indigenous Peoples in Tallinn, argues that the Finno-Ugric peoples who are committed to cooperation among nations related by language and culture must not support Vladimir Putin’s military aggression in Ukraine. What is happening in Ukraine now, the activist says in an appeal to the Finno-Ugric peoples of the Russian Federation, is ‘the antithesis of the Finno-Ugric idea. Two related Slavic peoples who could normally communicate and cooperate are in a horrific war’ …”
Sweden is arming Ukraine
(EU Observer)
“For the first time since World War II, Sweden has sent weapons to a country at war: Ukraine. The shipments include 5,000 anti-tank weapons manufactured by Saab, plus 5,000 helmets, 5,000 body shields, and 135,000 field rations. The Swedish press has been featuring pictures of Ukrainian soldiers equipped with Swedish-made AT4s, portable anti-tank weapons.”
Nordic countries halt all regional cooperation with Russia
(The Barent Observer)
“The war with Ukraine lead to a full suspension of Russia from the Barents Council, Nordic Council of Ministers, as well as the Council of the Baltic Sea States.”
____________
And Finally:
An Estonian feast: breaking bread with bakers in Tallinn
(National Geographic Traveller, UK)
“In Estonia, there’s an old proverb that translates as: ‘Have respect for bread, bread is older than we are’. Respect certainly isn’t in short supply at Kenneth and Eva’s bakery, Karjase Sai, which celebrates bread in all its various forms. Housed in a former rubber factory in the up-and-coming Tallinn neighbourhood of Kopli, it regularly draws long lines of hungry customers with its creative loaves and pastries.”
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