How Sweden and Finland would alter NATO’s security - Four maps
(Washington Post)
“Finland and Sweden’s membership would give the alliance an edge in the Baltic Sea, a strategic waterway bordered by Russia’s St. Petersburg, as well as some of NATO’s most vulnerable members. NATO’s main mission is keep Russia away from the Baltic states, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. A growing presence on the Baltic sea’s shores would strengthen security for those countries.”
 |
“Swedish and Finnish NATO membership would provide NATO with another reinforcement route through the Baltic Sea. Currently, NATO reinforcement depends on the Suwalki Gap, the narrow corridor separating Kaliningrad and Belarus which Russia could try to close off in a conflict.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/19/finland-sweden-nato-maps/
The Baltic Sea Becoming a NATO Sea
(Euronews)
“The Baltic Sea will soon become a NATO sea, says Glen Grant, a defence expert at the Baltic Security Foundation in Riga.”
—
"I see the Baltic Sea area as a common operational space, but I see the Baltic States cooperation, Nordic defence cooperation, NATO reinforcement in the Baltic States, US agreements with Finland and Sweden, all as parts of a jigsaw but missing a single operational picture and focus.”
—
“Finland and Sweden becoming part of NATO will put a few more pieces of the jigsaw puzzle in place but there also needs to be more operational coherence in the region, and the key players must also take the Baltic more seriously, Grant adds. "NATO thinks about deterrence with extra troops and about reinforcement or regaining ground - after the event. Whilst the EU has no visible regional policy at all. Mind, I suggest that it has no proper military policy for anywhere. Who pulls the regional strings to respond coherently in the early stages of a crisis is not at all clear," says Grant, a former British military officer and Defence Attaché at the British Embassies in Helsinki and Riga.”
Soome ja Rootsi NATO-ga liitumisel tekib piirkonda sõjaline tasakaal
(ERR)
“Soome ja Rootsi NATO-ga liitumisel võiks neilt oodata panustamist õhuturbesse või õhukaitsemissiooni ning NATO laevastikugruppidesse, leiab Eesti kaitseministeerium. Reservkolonelleitnandi Leo Kunnase sõnul aitaks põhjanaabrite kuulumine NATO-sse esmakordselt luua sõjalise tasakaalu siinses piirkonnas.”
A historic change: How Sweden and Finland trod separate paths to Nato
(The Guardian)
“Russia’s unprovoked onslaught on Ukraine – ostensibly intended, at least in part, to prevent Nato’s expansion – has ended up achieving the reverse, as the Nordic neighbours have abandoned decades of military non-alignment in a seismic shift in Europe’s security order.
—
Each had very different grounds for staying out of the alliance until now, their neutrality rooted in different geographies, histories and national identities. Both reached the same decision this week, but what went into it was not the same.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/20/sweden-finland-separate-paths-to-nato
__________
Friday 20. May
Survey: What Baltic citizens think about NATO and what they would do if attacked
(Washington Post)
“How do the Baltic nations view Russia? Although these countries are often portrayed as a bloc, our research suggests significant differences in opinions about national security issues, among and within the three countries. Our new survey found varying perceptions of the threat from Russia and views regarding NATO.”
—
“To assess how residents of the Baltic states feel about their current relationship with Russia and NATO, we coordinated with Kantar Emor, a data and consulting firm based in Estonia, to conduct nationally representative online surveys with about 1,300 subjects in Estonia and 1,000 each in Latvia and Lithuania in late March and early April.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/17/baltics-russia-ukraine-latvia-lithuania-estonia/
Baltic Survey
(pdf, 3 pages)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mifEdAtQsRr5LYWZEWDtffGsixYN2KjQ/view
One of the largest Nato exercises in Estonia, ‘Siil’, is under way
(BBC | ERR | VOA)
“The drills involve 10 countries, including Finland and Sweden. The exercises in Estonia, which will last until 3 June, were arranged before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Some 15,000 troops are involved in the exercise in Estonia, making it one of the largest military drills held in the country since 1991. The exercise is taking place 64 km (40 miles) from Russia's nearest military base. It is intended to simulate an attack from Russia on Estonia.”
—
“Across Europe, other Nato exercises are being held in Poland, North Macedonia and Lithuania.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61464104
—
https://news.err.ee/1608599026/gallery-major-estonian-defense-forces-exercise-siil-kicks-off
—
https://www.voanews.com/a/6576021.html
“Uus kaitsekava: Eesti kulutab nelja aastaga kaitsevõimele 3,8 miljardit.” - ERR
“Uuring: ajateenistusse minnakse innukalt ja kõrgete ootustega.” - Novaator
“Soome sõjaväelased osalevad Scoutspataljoni koosseisus Siilil.” - ERR
“USA merejalaväelased tegid dessandi Saaremaa põhjarannikule.” - ERR
“Õppus toob kaasa aktiivsema lennutegevuse.” - Postimees
“Allied presence in Estonia provides reassurance for Baltic leaders — but they want more to deter Russia.” - Politico Europe
“Reservväelased harjutasid laskmist tankitõrjesüsteemist Javelin.” - ERR
“Estonia tests combat readiness at the mass military exercise Siil.” - Estonian World
“Õppusele Siil saabus Poola rannikukaitse üksus.” - Postimees
“US Navy participates in Estonia-led exercise Hedgehog 2022.” - Naval Tech
“Laevakaitsjad ei koonerdanud Vana-Pärnus laskemoonaga.” - Postimees
Sõja hinda Venemaa jaoks tuleb tõsta
(ERR)
“Kaitseväe juhataja kindralleitnant Martin Herem osales sel nädalal Euroopa Liidu ning NATO kaitseväe juhatajate kokkusaamisel Brüsselis.”
—
"EL-i ja liikmesriikide roll on määrava tähtsusega. Peame tõstma sõja hinda Venemaa jaoks, nad rahvusvaheliselt isoleerima ning toetama igakülgselt Ukrainat, nii sõjalise abiga täna kui ka riigi ülesehitusega pikemas perspektiivis," ütles Herem.”
https://www.err.ee/1608602920/herem-soja-hinda-venemaa-jaoks-tuleb-tosta
Lääne-Harju vald: LNG terminal ei sobi Paldiski Põhjasadamasse
(ERR | Postimees)
“Neljapäeval avaldas Paldiski Põhjasadam, et veeldatud maagasi (LNG) ujuvterminalile oleks soodsam asukoht Paldiski linna keskuses olevas Paldiski Põhjasadamas; Lääne-Harju vallavalitsus sellega ei nõustu, sest see mõjutaks otseselt linlasi.”
https://www.err.ee/1608604165/laane-harju-vald-lng-terminal-ei-sobi-paldiski-pohjasadamasse
—
https://majandus.postimees.ee/7527706/vald-ei-soovi-lng-terminali-paldiski-pohjasadamasse
“Soome sõlmis 10-aastase lepingu LNG ujuvterminali rentimiseks.” - ERR
New LNG Deal Will Allow Finland, Estonia to End Russian Gas Imports
(Financial Post | Bloomberg)
“Excelerate Energy Inc. signed a 10-year deal to move a ship that stores liquefied natural gas to Finland, allowing the nation and its neighbor, Estonia, to end Russian natural gas imports as soon as winter. … Finland and Estonia account for roughly 3 billion cubic meters of demand per year and the tanker can deliver 5 billion cubic meters per year.”
—
Russia Will Halt Gas Exports to Finland
(New York Times)
“Russia said Friday that it was suspending gas shipments because Finland had failed to make payments in rubles. But the Kremlin has used Russia’s energy supply as a political weapon in the past, and Russian officials have expressed dismay over moves by Finland and Sweden to join NATO. Last weekend, Moscow suspended electricity exports to Finland as that country’s aims to join the military alliance became clear.”
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/20/world/russia-ukraine-war?smid=url-share
“Gazprom kinnitas gaasitarnete peatamist Soome.” - ERR
Russians feel sting of cultural and economic rift
(The Guardian)
“Helped by surging prices for oil and gas exports, the Kremlin has so far been able to continue financing its war efforts, with the country spending as much as $300m (£240m) a day on defence last month, double that of the prewar period, according to finance ministry data. Meanwhile, capital controls that Russia imposed to shield its financial sector in late February have made the rouble the world’s best-performing currency. Yet, for many in Moscow and other Russian cities, the country’s growing political and economic isolation is having a direct impact on their livelihoods.”
Thursday 19. May
Plaan: RMK saaks kogukondadele oluliste metsade raiel vabamad käed
Ülle Harju, Postimees
“Metsaseaduse muutmise eelnõu jätab mulje, nagu paraneks kohalike inimeste kaasamine kodulähedaste riigimetsade majandamisse, kuid reaalsuses saaks riigimetsa majandamise keskus (RMK) hoopis senisest veelgi vabamad käed raiuda neid metsi, mida kohalikud soovivad säilitada.”
https://www.postimees.ee/7525869/plaan-rmk-saaks-kogukondadele-oluliste-metsade-raiel-vabamad-kaed
Frans Timmermans: Eesti puidu välismaale kütteks müümine ei ole tark
(ERR)
“Euroopa Komisjoni asepresident Frans Timmermans: "... jääb ehituspuidust ja muust alati üle jääke, mida saab kasutada energiaallikana. "See on biomass, mida saab kasutada kütmiseks. Aga ma loodan, et me saame lõpetada kombe võtta maha täiesti terve mets, toota sellest väiksed pelletid ja visata see ahju Hollandis või Taanis. See ei ole Eestile ega Eesti majandusele hea,"
https://www.err.ee/1608603760/timmermans-eesti-puidu-valismaale-kutteks-muumine-ei-ole-tark
Estonian government approves Finland, Sweden NATO accession draft protocols
(ERR)
“Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform) said that Finland and Sweden's decision to join NATO is of historical importance, according to a government press release. "It is astonishing to think that just four months ago, Russia was issuing ultimatums demanding that NATO close its doors to new members," Kallas said. "The Estonian government is unanimous in saying that NATO's doors are very much open, and that Finland and Sweden are welcome to step through them. The security of our region — and indeed of Europe as a whole — will be strengthened by their accession to the alliance.” According to the prime minister, Estonia's security interests align with those of both Finland and Sweden.”
Baltic States Are Pushing NATO for More Than Just a Tripwire Against Russia
(Foreign Policy)
“Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are advocating that NATO upgrade its presence in the Baltic region to include divisional-sized headquarters and larger contingents of multinational forces in each of the three countries, according to multiple European and U.S. defense officials familiar with the matter.”
—
“It’s still unclear whether NATO countries will ultimately approve the proposal, as internal negotiations between the 30 alliance members are ongoing. Yet the debate within the alliance over the plan reflects a growing sense of alarm among some of NATO’s eastern members that the alliance needs to quickly strengthen its deterrence posture against Moscow, lest Russian President Vladimir Putin set his sights on military action against NATO territory after his misadventure in Ukraine.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/19/baltic-states-nato-military-presence-russia-more-than-tripwire/
“Balti riigid tahavad oma territooriumile rohkem NATO vägesid.” - ERR
Inside Putin’s Propaganda Machine
By Masha Gessen, The New Yorker
“Current and former employees describe Russian state television as an army, one with a few generals and many foot soldiers who never question their orders.”
https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-communications/inside-putins-propaganda-machine
President Karis: any hint of Putin's demise could create a dangerous power vacuum in Russia
(Newsweek)
“Karis also warned NATO that the Russian threat will outlast the end of the Ukraine war, necessitating a "permanent" alliance response in eastern and northern Europe. However, the president said it is not feasible for the West to completely isolate Russia and that—even if it takes decades—it remains important to work with Moscow.”
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-nato-ukraine-estonia-president-alar-karis-1707313
Wednesday 18. May
Tombs found under the floor of Tallinn’s St. Nicholas Church
(Postimees)
“Under the direction of Martin Malve, a bone researcher at the University of Tartu, the first excavations inside the church were made under the tower … But as soon as the Soviet-era concrete floor was removed, they discovered four tombs. These were only partially damaged and 25 skeletons dating from the 18th century were excavated.”
—
“The contents of the tombs were abundant and copper-alloy coffin decorations were found as well. The partly well-preserved coffins were covered with velvet on the outside and silk textiles on the inside. … “First of all, it had been preserved so thoroughly. We have the coffins, the skeletons, jewelry, so it is possible to study prosperous Tallinn residents of the 18th century in all details. And the coffins tell a lot about the burial customs of that time,” the archaeologist explained.”
https://news.postimees.ee/7524107/unexpected-finds-under-the-floor-of-st-nicholas-church
Interview: Estonian Lieutenant General Martin Herem
(Lithuanian Broadcasting)
“… it seems that the Russian government and Putin are taking bigger and faster steps toward the West. The objective is instability. Russia cannot occupy the Baltic states, they cannot occupy Eastern Europe, they do not have power for that and I think that they do not want that. They may do it temporarily, seize some territory, but what they [want to] achieve is the destruction of our culture – way of living – our culture of economy, culture of politics, our values.”
“EDF commander: Russia cannot occupy the Baltic states.” - ERR
“The Suwalki Gap: Achilles’ heel of NATO.” - Eureporter
“NATO Is Dangerously Exposed in the Baltic.” - Foreign Policy, 2. Feb.
Disagreements at NATO about how to boost presence in Eastern Europe
(Washington Post)
“Russia’s direct military aggression against NATO allies cannot be excluded,” according to a confidential joint proposal from the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia that was obtained by The Washington Post. “Russia can rapidly mass military forces against NATO’s eastern border and confront the Alliance with a short war and fait accompli,” the document said, proposing that a division-size contingent of about 20,000 troops be tasked with speeding to each of the countries if they are under threat.”
—
“Other countries are more cautious about robust new commitments in Eastern Europe, wary of signing on to large deployments that would be costly and would divert troops from other areas.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/05/17/nato-troops-europe-russia-ukraine/
Estonia’s Tough Voice on Ukraine Urges No Compromise With Putin
(New York Times)
“Kaja Kallas, now 44, grew up in the Soviet Union, which had annexed her country, Estonia, after World War II. She remembers the Soviet occupation and a visit to East Berlin in 1988, when she was 11, and her father told her to “breathe in the air of freedom” from West Berlin. And she remembers the stories of 1949, when her mother, Kristi, then a baby, was deported to Siberia in a cattle car with her own mother and grandmother and lived in exile there until she was 10 — part of Moscow’s effort to wipe out Estonia’s elite. So it is little wonder that Ms. Kallas, now Estonia’s prime minister, has become one of Europe’s toughest voices against Russia for its war in Ukraine.”
“Zahharova sapivoog Kallase suunas ülendab meie peaministri Kremli tõsiste vaenlaste hulka. See on tunnustus.” - Eesti Päevaleht, paywall
“Europe’s new leaders are coming from the periphery.” - Euractiv
Sweden and Finland formally submitted their applications to join Nato
(The Guardian)
“Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, accepted the two historically non-aligned Nordic countries’ membership requests, each in a white folder embossed with their national flag, at the US-led defensive alliance’s HQ in Brussels on Wednesday.”
—
“I warmly welcome the requests by Finland and Sweden to join Nato. You are our closest partners,” Stoltenberg told the two countries’ ambassadors, hailing the occasion as “a historic step” and “a good day at a critical time for our safety”.
—
“Finland's Parliament approved Nato application: 188 votes to 8.” - Yle
“Denmark, Iceland and Norway joint statement of support.” - High North News
“Russia’s motivations for invading Ukraine aren’t the central issue for the Swedes. What matters is that Putin chose to go to war.” - Foreign Policy
“Some young Swedes remain uneasy about joining NATO.” - Deutsche Welle
“Finland Joining NATO Is More Shocking Than Anyone Realizes.” - Slate
“NATO Countries Begin Ushering Finland and Sweden Into the Fold.” - Foreign Policy
“Finns Show Up for Conscription. Russians Dodge It.” - Foreign Policy
“Silence blankets Finland’s border with Russia.” - Politico Europe, 14. May
“Baltic PMs will do 'utmost' to support Finland, Sweden's NATO bids.” - ERR
“Baltics voice strong support to Finnish, Swedish NATO bid.” - BNN
“Finland, Sweden have 'full' US backing in Nato bid.” - BBC
“Finland and Sweden Joining NATO Is the Latest Example of Putin Miscalculating the Ukraine War.” - Time
Nordic Firepower: The Native Military Hardware Sweden and Finland Would Bring To NATO
(RFERL)
One impressive machine: “Sweden’s Archer automated howitzer is able to park, aim and fire within 30 seconds then fold itself up and “scoot” to safety in the same amount of time. The hypermodern artillery system fires 155mm projectiles including the expensive U.S.-made Excalibur guided artillery shells, capable of steering themselves with sufficient accuracy to hit a car from 60 kilometers away.
https://www.rferl.org/a/sweden-finland-nato-hardware-artillery/31856645.html
“Tech Specs: Archer FH77 BW L52 Self-Propelled Howitzer.”
- Army Technology
It’s unrealistic to think one member could prevent accession to Nato
(Helsinki Times)
“Jussi Halla-aho (PS), the chairperson of the Finnish Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee gave the estimate in response to a question about the remarks emanating from Turkey about the membership bids of Finland and Sweden.”
—
“It’s mostly a question of Turkey’s domestic policy and desire to promote things that are important to it,” he gauged at a press conference held in conjunction with the release of the committee’s report on Nato. Also Erkki Tuomioja (SDP), the deputy chairperson of the Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, viewed that the statements should be seen as attempts to accomplish domestic policy goals.”
“Türgi peatas NATO-s Soome ja Rootsi taotluste arutelu.” - ERR
“Turkey Wants A Bribe For Allowing Sweden And Finland To Join NATO.” - 19fortyfive
“Turkish president could have one eye on elections.” - The Guardian
Russian Foreign Minister: Finland, Sweden Nato membership makes "not much difference”
(Yle)
“Finland's and Sweden's accession into Nato will most likely make "not much difference," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday. Both countries have long been involved in joint Nato military exercises and been partners of the western alliance for years, Lavrov further noted.”
—
“Speaking on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin also moved away from his previous stance on the perceived dangers associated with Finland's membership of Nato. According to Putin, Russia has no problems with Finland or Sweden, and therefore Nato's expansion into these countries is not a direct threat to Russia.”
https://yle.fi/news/3-12449225
Brewery launches Nato-branded beer
(Yle)
“As Finland takes the initial steps in applying for Nato membership, a small Finnish brewery has launched a new Nato-branded beer. Dubbed Otan (the French variation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization), the beer's blue label features a cartoon figure wearing a metal armour suit, emblazoned with the Nato flag's compass symbol.”
https://yle.fi/news/3-12447932
A Brief History Of Estonian Air
(Simple Flying)
“For 24 years in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, Estonian Air served as the flag carrier airline of Estonia.”
https://simpleflying.com/estonian-air-brief-history/
__________
Putin’s War
__________
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: 19. May 2022
(ISW)
[ISW produces excellent, detailed, open-source intelligence analysis.]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-19
Putin is engaged in battlefield decisions ‘at the level of a colonel or brigadier’
(The Guardian)
“An attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces last week resulted in nearly 500 killed and the loss of over 70 armoured vehicles in a disastrous attempt to cross the Siverski Donets river, which took place, western sources said, not under the cover of darkness but in broad daylight.”
—
“So if the western claim is to be believed, Putin would have approved the battle plan. Decision making at the “level of a colonel or brigadier” implies a brigade level command of two or more battalions, the movement of 1,500 or more troops: precisely the kind of force that tried and failed to ford the strategic river.”
“Ukraine is becoming a scrapheap for Russian tanks.” - Reuters
“Ukraina sõjaväeluure juht: vallutame tagasi kõik okupeeritud alad.” - ERR
“Stop calling Putin, Estonia’s prime minister says.” - Euractiv
“Estonia's leader takes swipe at Macron for calling Putin all the time.” - Business Insider
“Eesti suursaadik USA-s: Bideni tegevust Ukraina kriisis hinnatakse üha paremini.” - ERR
“Zelenskyy warns population of a long war.” - Deutsche Welle
“Russian losses from the infamous failed Russian Siverskyi Donets river crossing near Bilohorivka.” - BlueSauron (Twitter)
“Venelastel napib tehnikat, et jõgesid ületada.” - Estonian World Review
Ukraine’s Way Out
By Charles A. Kupchan, The Atlantic
“With both sides doubling down, NATO must engage in a forthright dialogue with the Ukrainian government about its goals and how best to bring the bloodshed to a close sooner rather than later. Russia has already been dealt a decisive strategic defeat. Ukrainian forces have rebuffed the advance on Kyiv and retain control of most of the country; the West has hit Russia with severe economic sanctions; and NATO has reinforced its eastern flank, while Finland and Sweden now seek to join the alliance. For NATO and Ukraine alike, strategic prudence argues in favor of pocketing these successes rather than pressing the fight and running the tantamount risks.”
—
“So far, the United States and its allies have shied away from pushing Kyiv to limit its strategic objectives. NATO has instead focused on providing Ukraine the means to defend itself—more anti-tank and antiaircraft missiles, more drones, more artillery, more intelligence. The Biden administration legitimately argues that Ukrainians must decide their own war aims. It’s also true that Kyiv is fully justified, on both moral and legal grounds, to seek to restore Ukraine’s full territorial integrity by retaking Crimea and the section of the Donbas that Russia occupied in 2014.”
—
“But Kyiv’s right to fight for complete territorial sovereignty does not make doing so strategically wise. Nor should Ukraine’s remarkable success in repelling Russia’s initial advance be cause for overconfidence about the next phases of the conflict. Indeed, strategic pragmatism warrants a frank conversation between NATO and Ukraine about curbing Kyiv’s ambitions and settling for an outcome that falls short of ‘victory’.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/ukraine-war-russia-putin-end/629890/
Russian talk show: Retired colonel stuns his colleagues by pointing out that the Ukraine invasion isn’t going well
(New York Times)
“Extraordinary exchange on Russian state TV’s top talk show about Ukraine. Military analyst & retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok tells anchor Olga Skabeyeva “the situation for us will clearly get worse…we’re in total geopolitical isolation…the situation is not normal.” - Steve Rosenberg, Twitter
—
“News talk shows in Russia are generally a shouting match, with the half dozen panelists each vying to drown out the others. On this episode, however, the other panelists stood in stunned silence. …”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/17/world/europe/russian-state-tv-ukraine-invasion.html
“Former Wagner Group mercenary says Russia ill-prepared for war with Ukraine.” - Fox
“Russia's invasion not going to plan, Nato says.” - BBC
The Biggest Threat to Putin’s Control of Crimea: the Crimean Tatars
(The Atlantic)
“This month we mark what Stalin did after Hitler’s forces left Crimea. In May 1944, over the course of three days, he deported the entire Crimean Tatar nation—roughly 200,000 people—from its homeland. In the Crimean Tatar language, the deportation is remembered as Sürgün (“the Exile”), an event of brutal dispossession and mass death. Thousands of the deportees died over the course of the journey from inhumane conditions, lack of water and food, and vicious treatment by Stalin’s NKVD. Thousands more perished from hunger, exposure, and disease in “special settlement camps” in Central Asia and Siberia, in the far reaches of the Soviet Union, where they languished for nearly half a century.”
—
“After decades of tireless work and sacrifice, the Crimean Tatars won the right to return to their ancestral homeland in the twilight of Mikhail Gorbachev’s rule. … (But) Russia’s breakneck annexation of Crimea in 2014 changed everything. Almost overnight, activists associated with Crimean Tatar civil society were subject to arrests, detentions, and expulsions at the hands of de facto Russian authorities. The sheer number and nature of these attacks on civil liberties and human rights compelled one prominent Crimean human-rights organization to compile a multivolume “Encyclopedia of Repression.”
And Finally:
Potential US responses to the Russian use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine
By Jeffrey Edmonds
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
“When the rhetoric from the Russian political and military leadership turns to the possibility of a war pitting the United States and its NATO allies against Russia, the mention of nuclear weapons is usually close behind. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently raised the nuclear specter over the Ukraine war, insisting that NATO is engaging in a proxy war with Russia. While insisting that Russia seeks to avoid nuclear war at all costs, he warned that the “danger is serious, real, and we must not underestimate it.”
—
“This is double talk typical of Lavrov; through it, he attempts to paint Russia as a responsible actor, even though Russia is the only actor in this war that would consider using nuclear weapons. The Russian leadership has also used nuclear threats to signal its displeasure with the expansion of NATO, suggesting it will deploy nuclear-capable missiles near Finland and Sweden if they join the alliance.”
—
“Many of these nuclear threats are signals, meant to politically coerce. But what if Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine to change the apparent negative direction of the Russian invasion there? Four response options seem at least plausible: …”
_________
_______
___
