Finland and Sweden on the path toward NATO membership
(Foreign Policy)
“Just over two months ago, the prospect of Finland joining NATO was virtually unthinkable to most in the northern European country. It had grown closer to the military alliance over the last three decades but resisted the idea of becoming a full-fledged member. That all changed when tens of thousands of Russian troops rolled across Ukraine’s border in late February.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/06/finland-sweden-nato-membership-russia-ukraine/
Soome liitumine NATO-ga tugevdaks Balti riikide julgeolekut
(ERR)
“Soome liitumine NATO-ga tugevdaks oluliselt Balti riikide sõjalist julgeolekut ja ka elanikkonna psühholoogilist vastupanuvõimet. "Kui me vaatame ühe sõjalis-starteegiliselt tähtsa aspektina Balti riikide ja Põhjala regioonis NATO ja Vene Föderatsiooni relvajõudude tasakaalu, siis Soome liitumine tugevdaks NATO väehoiakut siin regioonis oluliselt. Soome sõjaaja kaitseväe koosseis on suurusjärgus 300 000 võitlejat, kuhu tulevad veel juurde vabatahtlikud komponendid. Selline NATO väehoiak tugevdaks Eesti ja teiste Balti riikide sõjalist julgeolekut ja heidutusvõimet olulisel määral," kommenteeris Kolonel Märk.”
“Finland NATO accession would radically change Estonian security.” - ERR
“Soome liitumine NATO-ga muudaks Eesti julgeolekut otsustavalt.” - ERR
Finland preparing for Russian ‘consequences’ if it joins NATO
(Breaking Defense | Bloomberg)
“Finland could be just weeks away from announcing plans to join NATO, meaning the government is already considering how Moscow might retaliate, according to a senior Finnish defense official.”
—
“Russia says it would have to 'rebalance' if Finland and Sweden join NATO.” - Reuters
“Ukrainian President Zelensky warns Russia could "do the same" to Finland.” - Yle
“Venemaa ei suuda Soome liitumist NATO-ga takistada.” - ERR
“Russia cannot prevent Finland from joining NATO.” - ERR
“Finnish foreign affairs and defence ministry websites hit by cyber attacks.”
“Russian plane suspected of violating Finnish airspace.” - Yle
“Finnish defense and foreign ministries hit by cyberattack.” - ERR
Nato decision must happen this spring - Finland Prime Minister Sanna Marin
(Helsinki Times | The Weekly | Yle)
“In this new situation and changed security environment, also we’ll have to evaluate all means to guarantee the safety of Finland and Finns. We’ll have to seriously mull over our own stance and approach to military alignment. We’ll have to do this carefully but quickly, effectively during the course of this spring.”
—
“… it was time for Finland to seriously reconsider its stance on military allegiance.
Russia's military aggression in Ukraine has forced Finland to reexamine its security policy, according to Marin, who said, "Russia is not the neighbour we thought it was."
—
—
https://yle.fi/news/3-12388118
 |
| Prime Minister Sanna Marin Photo: Jason Alden/Bloomberg |
“Soome valmistub esitama NATO-liikmelisuse avaldust.” - Postimees
“Ukraine war sees Sweden warm to NATO membership.” - Euronews
“Finland may need to grapple with its stance on nuclear weapons as Nato discussions unfold.” - Yle
“Opinion: Finland has experience in what Ukraine is going through.” - Prince George Citizen
“Finland and Sweden Are Done With Deference to Russia.” - Foreign Policy, 5. Jan.
“Finland seizes Russian artwork worth $46 million under sanctions.” - Washington Post
Putin faces 'more NATO' in the Arctic after Ukraine invasion
(Reuters)
“Living memories of war kept Finns on alert, Swedes less prepared.”
__________
Friday 8. April
Presidendi majandusnõunik: nii kiire hinnatõus on hirmutav
(Postimees)
“Eestis on hinnad tõusnud üle 15 % ja rahandusministeerium prognoosib majanduslangust.”
Estonia’s prime minister urges vast rise in Nato forces to defend Baltic states
(Financial Times)
“Nato is stuck on a cold war footing in Europe and needs to acknowledge its eastern expansion by deploying far more forces in the Baltic states to repel a potential Russian attack, according to Estonia’s prime minister. Kaja Kallas said that the military alliance needed “war-fighting capabilities” & permanent bases in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, with a division in the region of up to 25,000 troops, well up from battalions of about 1,000 soldiers in each country.”
—
“She also said Nato fighter jets on patrol in the Baltic states should be allowed to shoot down enemy aircraft if needed.”
https://www.ft.com/content/863ab482-4d6b-49a8-8c9a-551e42292e2e
“Secretary general for defense: Our aim is to double allied presence.” - ERR
Kaja Kallas on the atrocities in Ukraine
By Kaja Kallas, The Economist
“We see pictures of mass graves and civilians murdered by Russian troops. These photos remind Estonians of the killings by the Soviets and the NKVD, its law-enforcement ministry. Its machine of state terror murdered civilians in exactly the same way. Deportations and filtration camps take me and every other Estonian family back to painful memories of repression under Soviet occupation and of Gulag prison camps.”
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/kaja-kallas-on-the-atrocities-in-ukraine/21808581
Opinion: Keep calm, stop Putin and fortify the Baltics
By Jonathan Capehart, Washington Post
“From the moment Russia pushed into Ukraine six weeks ago, Putin’s potential to harm his neighbors has been top of mind. I’m specifically thinking about the threat to the Baltic states that are members of NATO and protected by the defense guarantee under Article 5. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are individually and collectively tiny compared with Texas-sized Ukraine. But their experience with Soviet occupation gives them a clear-eyed perspective on the looming threat of Putin’s revanchism and the confidence to tell NATO exactly how to handle Putin.”
“How Estonian Civilians Are Preparing for a Russian Attack.” - Time
Vladimir Zhirinovsky obituary
(The Guardian | RFERL)
“Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who has died at age 75 after suffering from Covid-19, was an ultra-nationalist Russian politician who used boorish language and behaviour to cultivate an image of being a licensed court jester in the Russian parliament, where he held a seat for close to 30 years. An admirer of Donald Trump, Zhirinovsky outperformed Trump with homophobic and racist invective, and sexual slurs against prominent female politicians.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/06/vladimir-zhirinovsky-obituary
—
https://www.rferl.org/a/week-russia-zhirinovsky-eclipsed/31792764.html
The Baltic states have long been one of Zhirinovsky's favorite targets
(RFERL, June 2016)
“He had urged Russia to build giant fans to blow radioactive waste over the Baltics, called for a Russian invasion, and last year suggested conducting local referendums on the return of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to the Russian fold. He voiced confidence that Balts would opt for joining Russia, arguing that Moscow had "abandoned" the three countries by recognizing their sovereignty in 1991. "They never wanted to live in independent states; they were and wanted to remain citizens of the U.S.S.R.," he said.”
—-
“Zhirinovsky has since predicted that Russian flags will fly over Kyiv, Riga, Vilnius, and Tallinn as soon as 2016.”
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-zhirinovsky-no-longer-so-wacky/27696519.html
Russian Railways tripled container traffic to Kaliningrad via Lithuania
(Rail Target, 28. March)
“Since March, freight trains running between the logistics centers Bely Rast in the Moscow region and East-West in the Kaliningrad region have started running three times more often. The railway route passes through Lithuanian territory.”
“Lithuania asks EU to boost security for Kaliningrad-Russia transit.” - La Prensa, 30. March
“Russian Railways Increased Train Service Frequency Between Moscow and Kaliningrad.” - SeaNews, 25. March
“Lithuania can't cut off Russian trains to Kaliningrad.” - Baltic Times
NATO Cannot Forget About Kaliningrad
(1945, 18. January)
“When discussing the precipitous security situation in Eastern Europe at present, it is easy to forget that a potential Russian invasion could be a two-front war. On one front, an attack could come along NATO’s easternmost border, especially Poland’s border with Belarus, or at one of the Baltic States; on the other, NATO could experience an equally devastating offensive from virtually inside its own house, from the heavily armed oblast of Kaliningrad. …”
Thursday 7. April
Esimesed Ukraina põgenikud kolisid neljapäeval Tallinki laevale
(ERR)
“Nende majutamise ja toitlustamise eest maksab sotsiaalkindlustusamet. Laevadel majutab põgenikke ka näiteks Holland. 270 põgenikku kolisid Tallinki laevale.”
https://www.err.ee/1608558373/esimesed-pogenikud-kolisid-tallinki-laevale
“Põgenikud pelgasid laeva merele minekut.” - Postimees
“Couple of thousand children from Ukraine registered for schooling in Estonia.” - Baltic Times
Venemaa ja Valgevene kodanikud ei saa enam Eestis töötamiseks ja ettevõtluseks viisat
(Postimees | ERR)
“Siseminister Kristian Jaani märkis, et sanktsioon on täiendav samm vältimaks vastuolu, kus rahvusvaheliste ja riiklike sanktsioonidega piiratakse küll Venemaa ja Valgevene majandust ja investeeringuid, kuid samas antakse nende riikide kodanikele elamislube Eestis äriajamiseks ja töötamiseks. «Meil tuleb otsustavalt piirata nende kahe riigi kodanike võimalusi Eestisse saabumiseks ja elama asumiseks,» rõhutas ta.”
—
Estonia to be fully independent from Russian gas by fall
(ERR)
“Estonia actually doesn't consume a single molecule of Russian gas even now already, Minister of Economic Affairs and Infrastructure Taavi Aas (Center) said on Tuesday.”
https://news.err.ee/1608555364/minister-estonia-to-be-fully-independent-from-russian-gas-by-fall
“1. nov. peaks Paldiskis LNG vastuvõtuvõimekus olemas olema.” - ERR
“Finland, Estonia eye floating LNG terminal to ensure supply.” - ABCNews
“Energy sector should be part of new sanctions against Russia, Estonia says.” - Financial Post
“'Sooner or later Europe will turn off Russian gas,' says analyst.” - Euronews
“Baltic countries move towards oil and gas embargo of Russia.” - Institute of Central Europe
Marko Mihkelson: Euroopas pole siiani aru saadud sõja tõsidusest
(Postimees)
“Kuigi Euroopa Liit valmistab ette järjekordseid sanktsioone Venemaa suhtes, kestab sõda Ukrainas edasi ja tõde Vene sõjaväe julmusest muutub üha karmimaks.”
UN votes in favour of suspending Russia from Human Rights Council
(Euronews)
“The vote to oust Russia from the UN's leading human rights body on Thursday was 93-24 with 58 abstentions.”
“ÜRO viskas Venemaa inimõiguste nõukogust välja.” - Postimees
“According to the United Nations Digital Library, this is how nations voted on Thursday.” - UN
I Tried to Put Russia on Another Path
By Bill Clinton, The Atlantic
“… My first trip outside the United States as president was to Vancouver to meet with Yeltsin and guarantee $1.6 billion for Russia so it could afford to bring its soldiers home from the Baltic states and provide for their housing.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/bill-clinton-nato-expansion-ukraine/629499/
Wednesday 6. April
“If you don’t respond now, you will be responding when they attack NATO.”
(MSNBC, 3. April 2022)
“This is the first time that anyone has threatened to use nuclear weapons for conquest,” says Former Estonian President Toomas Ilves. The horrible images out of Bucha “brings back memories” for so many in the region. The current inaction from the U.S. and NATO is sending the signal to Putin that all of this is fine. “I’m just flabbergasted by this.”
 |
| Ilves interview on MSNBC 3. April 2022 |
The Pentagon makes long-term plans for Eastern Europe and the Baltics
(Washington Post)
“… with senior U.S. defense officials expected to revamp how they deploy military forces in Eastern Europe and the Baltics amid deepening anxiety over Russia’s broader ambitions.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/05/us-troops-europe-russia-ukraine/
Latvia and Estonia close Russian consulates, expel staff
(Reuters | Schengen Visa)
“The consulates in the Latvian towns of Daugavpils and Liepaja and Estonian towns of Tartu and Narva will have to close by the end of April. Staff will have to leave by that time, the statements of the ministries said.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/latvia-closes-two-russian-consulates-expels-staff-2022-04-05/
—
“Estonia expels Russian diplomats, closes consular offices in Narva and Tartu.” - ERR
Estonia’s Government to Amend State Borders Act to Prevent Illegal Migration
(SchengenVisaInfo)
“The amendment of the State Borders Act is necessary so that the police can do their work in situations where foreigners are used as a weapon in organizing a hybrid attack, as we saw at the borders of Belarus and the European Union,” the Minister of the Interior Kristian Jaani pointed out.”
Tuesday 5. April
Tallinna Kesklinna elanikud saaksid pommide eest pageda bastionikäikudesse
(ERR)
“Alates 1993. aasta Eesti valitsuse otsusest Eestis varjendite mittearendamise kohta, puudub meil ülevaade hoonetest ja rajatistest, mis on kaitseks kasutatavad või kohandatavad.”
—
"Mind paneb sügavalt nördima see et viimased paarkümmend aastat kui arhitektid on püüdnud varjendite ja tsiviilkaitse teemast rääkida, siis on valitsuse tasandil, erinevate poliitiliste vaadetega inimeste poolt seda teemat pigem naeruvääristatud või suhtutud sellesse teatava üleolekuga, nagu me oleksime paranoilised. See on minu meelest lubamatu ja siin me täna oleme," rääkis arhitekt Margit Mutso.”
Army Gen. Mark Milley: NATO needs more permanent bases in Baltics, Poland
(AP | LRT)
“My advice would be to create permanent bases but don’t permanently station (forces), so you get the effect of permanence by rotational forces cycling through permanent bases,” he said. “I believe that a lot of our European allies, especially those such as the Baltics or Poland and Romania, and elsewhere — they’re very, very willing to establish permanent bases. They’ll build them, they’ll pay for them.”
—
“Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin added that he recently visited and spoke with leaders in the Baltics, noting that they made it clear they value U.S. troops there. “We’ll continue to work with NATO to assess what the requirements will be moving forward,” Austin said. “We will be part of that solution.”
—
NATO division in Estonia would require expanded headquarters / facilities
(ERR)
“Establishing a NATO division in Estonia would require significant preparation in terms of command, additional units and infrastructure. The prime minister made an announcement last week that Estonia required a permanent, divisional-sized structure as the country's security posture pivots from one of deterrence, to one of defense.”
https://news.err.ee/1608554125/nato-division-in-estonia-would-require-expanded-hq-units
“Defmins of Estonia, France discuss NATO's defense readiness.” - Baltic Times
Ukrainian war refugees deported by Russia entering EU via Estonia
(ERR)
“Russia has been deporting thousands of Ukrainian citizens from areas of active fighting, such as the besieged city of Mariupol, according to media reports. Currently, the only way to enter Estonia from Russia is by bus and five companies are making the journey from St Petersburg to Tallinn: LuxExpress, EcoLines, Baltic Shuttle, Anniston and the Russian company PTK.”
https://news.err.ee/1608551848/ukrainian-war-refugees-deported-by-russia-entering-eu-via-estonia
“Russians in Estonia protest against Russia's war in Ukraine.” - ERR
“Estonia Charters Ferry Isabelle to House Ukrainians.” - Maritime Executive
Lithuania And Estonia Welcome New Nato Fighter Detachments
(NATO)
“NATO's collective Air Policing mission in the Baltics continues as incoming Allies Spain, Czech Republic and France officially take over from outgoing Allies Poland, Denmark and Belgium.”
https://ac.nato.int/archive/2022/2022_LTU-EST-HOTOs
Who’s Behind ‘#IStandWithPutin’?
(The Atlantic)
“Very quickly, disinformation researchers began to see suspicious patterns associated with the hashtags, arguing that both bots and “engagement farming” were being used. A deep dive on the profile picture used by one account propagating the hashtags led to a Polish Facebook group dedicated to dating scams. At least in part, the early signs indicated that a deliberate, if hidden, effort was under way to make these hashtags trend.”
__________
Putin’s War
__________
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: 7. April 2022
(ISW)
[ISW produces excellent, detailed, open-source intelligence analysis.]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-7
Lahingud Donbassi pärast juba käivad
(ERR)
“Ukraina välisminister Dmõtro Kuleba ütles neljapäeval, et Donbassis käivad juba suured lahingud ja need hakkavad meenutama teist maailmasõda. NATO peasekretär Jens Stoltenberg hoiatas, et Venemaa agressioon võib kesta aastaid.”
https://www.err.ee/1608557029/ukraina-lahingud-donbassi-parast-juba-kaivad
Kremlin Began Preparing for Putin’s War in Ukraine Two Years in Advance
By Paul Goble
“… the Kremlin began preparing for the conflict by tightening restrictions on individuals and groups that it felt could lead protests against that war, according to a 19-page report released by the Agora human rights group. … “the neutralization of the political and information space over the past year was in preparation for its military stage,” although they concede the logic behind what the powers that be were doing earlier became clear only when the Russian army began its invasion of Ukraine.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/04/kremlin-began-preparing-for-putins-war.html
“Kremlin spokesman admits ‘we have significant losses of troops’.” - The Hill
“Estonia PM warns against "peace at any price" with Putin.” - Axios
“Estonia's PM warns the 'true scale of the Kremlin's brutality is yet to be seen' in Ukraine.” - Business Insider
“Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs: Russia trampling on intl law, UN Charter is a threat to everyone.” - Baltic Times
“Zelenskyy challenges UN to punish Russia or 'simply close' its doors.” - ABCNews
“'No one will ever listen to Russia:' Why Ukraine is winning the propaganda war.” - CBC
“How digital evidence of war crimes in Ukraine is being collected, verified and preserved.” - Euronews
“Mariupol Mayor Says Russia Has Turned the City Into a ‘Death Camp’.” - National Interest
“Amnesty Finland chief: "Horrific" civilian killings in Ukraine most likely question of war crimes.” - Yle
“Burned Bodies, Wrecked Russian Armor Found In Liberated Ukrainian Village.” - RFERL
“Why the destruction of Ukraine’s churches matters.” - Spectator
“Three Small Signs of Big Problems Ahead for Moscow.” - Paul Goble
“Russia’s army is recruiting volunteers up to the age of 60 after suffering heavy losses.” - The Times
“Putin Is Obsessed With Ukraine And Has 'Stepped Into A Trap’.” - RFERL
Ukrainian Experts: Russian Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons a Possibility
(Jamestown Org.)
“Some Ukrainian military experts … noted that the Russian authorities are preparing the population for such a scenario and suggested that Moscow does not believe it will be held accountable for its actions.”
—
“At the same time, however, Russian opposition politician, former political prisoner and former head of the oil company Yukos, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, suggested that the risk of a tactical nuclear strike in Ukrainian territory is diminishing because there are problems between Putin and his army. “Putin must understand that if he orders someone to press the red button and the military does not carry out his order, they would have to kill him in order not to be labeled traitors, Khodorkovsky reasoned.”
“Russians Increasingly Casual in Talking about Use of Nuclear Weapons.” - Paul Goble
“Former NATO Commander Says Western Fears Of Nuclear War Are Preventing A Proper Response To Putin.” - RFERL
Does Putin Think He Is Already At War With NATO?
(1945)
“Putin has said from the very beginning that this war includes them,” Khodorkovsky said about NATO forces, adding that the Russian President believes NATO is “weak” and that they will not defend the Baltic region. He also claimed that Putin believes that, in time, NATO will collapse and that American influence over the globe will decrease.”
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/04/does-putin-think-he-is-already-at-war-with-nato/
To ‘De-Nazify’ Ukraine, Moscow Must Impose a Brutal Generation-Long Occupation, Novosti Journalist Says
(Window on Eurasia)
“De-Nazification will inevitably involve de-Ukrainianization. … Unlike let us say Georgia and the Baltic countries, Ukraine, as history has shown, is impossible in the form of a nation state, and attempts to ‘create’ such a state logically lead to Nazism” because “Ukrainianism is an artificial anti-Russian construction which does not have its own civilizational content.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/04/to-de-nazify-ukraine-moscow-must-impose.html
Russia’s Media Is Now Totally in Vladimir Putin’s Hands
(Foreign Policy)
“The persecution of truth-tellers in Russia is certainly nothing new, but the past 30 years have seen many innovations in the techniques authorities use to harass, intimidate, and silence. In the 1990s and early 2000s, the stifling of dissent was still relatively decentralized. Witness the assassinations of individual journalists such as Vladislav Listyev, whose 1995 murder was rumored to have been ordered by the oligarch Boris Berezovsky, or the intrepid Novaya reporter Anna Politkovskaya, whose 2006 killing remains unsolved to this day. In recent years, repressions have not only accelerated but also lost some of their earlier anonymity—a feature of Putin’s increasingly personalist style of rule.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/05/russia-media-independence-putin/
And Finally:
Belarus, Russia and Ukraine – a dysfunctional family affair
By Sasha Filipenko, The Guardian, 5. April
“Putin loves to evoke the family to describe the relationship between our countries. But we have always known our identities are quite distinct.”
—
“The Ukrainians broke free from the family, while the Belarusians reckoned that if you keep living with your parents, you don’t have to pay the rent.”
__________
_______
____
