- Polls open at 09.00 EET on Sunday in just over 450 polling stations around Estonia (see Friday)
- What is the ‘Bucharest-9’? (Thursday)
- Trump killed the atlantic alliance but the next president can restore it (Thursday - Foreign Affairs)
(Chapter 2 covers the Baltics - RAND Org.)
- Swedbank, via its Estonian subsidiary, actively courted high-rolling, non-resident clients. (Thursday)
Painting - Wikimedia Commons:
Friday
1. March 2019
Estonia's 3. March general election
(Multiple sources)
“Polls open at 09.00 EET on Sunday in just over 450 polling stations up and down the country, where voters pick their candidate of choice from lists run by all the major parties in each of Estonia's 12 electoral districts, with smaller parties running part-lists, and some independent candidates running too. The maximum total number of candidates a party can run, and thus the number that nearly all parties run, is 125.”
“Nearly a million people are eligible to vote Sunday to choose Estonia’s 101-seat Riigikogu legislature, where the outgoing prime minister and his Center Party is pitted against the center-right opposition Reform Party.”
“Both want to keep at bay a nationalist, far-right party with an anti-immigration, xenophobic and Euroskeptic agenda, which has increased its popularity since the last election in 2015.”
“Ülevaade: kellele ennustavad küsitlused ja politoloogid valimisvõitu?”
“Estonian politicians target voters in Finland ahead of Sunday’s elections.”
“Far-right poised for gains in Estonia vote.”
“Estonian elections: A crucial test for political stability.”
http://neweasterneurope.eu/2019/03/01/estonian-elections-a-crucial-test-for-its-political-stability/
“OSCE will be in Estonia for 3. March Elections.”
“Capacity of e-state demonstrated as hundreds of thousands vote, file taxes.”
https://news.err.ee/914170/capacity-of-e-state-demonstrated-as-hundreds-of-thousands-vote-file-taxes
“What Estonia’s record number of i-voters teaches us about election trust.”
“The U.S. Can Learn About Electronic Voting From Estonia.”
“Riigikogu valimistel andis oma e-hääle kokku 247,232 Eesti kodanikku 145 riigist.”
“Opinion polls put EKRE in third place, with ruling centre-left Centre group in lead.”
“Proof that Estonians really can vote online
from anywhere.”
http://estonianworld.com/technology/heres-proof-that-estonians-really-can-vote-online-from-anywhere/
You Have 19 Minutes to React If the Russians Hack Your Network
(Defense One | others)
“Dubbed “breakout time,” the statistic refers to the amount of time it takes the attacker to jump between network nodes once on the network. It also “shows how much time defenders have on average to detect an initial intrusion, investigate it and eject the attacker from the network, before sensitive data can be stolen or destroyed,” CrowdStrike analysts wrote in a 2018 post introducing the concept. The agility of Russian groups has long been known; it was a signature element of both the 2015 penetration of the Joint Chiefs’ civilian email system and the following year’s attack on the Democratic National Committee’s network. But the new data is eye-opening.”
—
—
Eesti keskmine brutokuupalk 2018 a. oli 1,310 eurot
(ERR)
“Maakonniti oli 2018. aastal keskmine brutokuupalk endiselt kõrgeim Harju (1,455 eurot) ja Tartu (1,289 eurot) maakonnas ning madalaim Hiiu (944 eurot) ja Saare (987 eurot) maakonnas. Brutokuupalk kasvas igas maakonnas. Aastakasv oli kõige kiirem Saare, Jõgeva ja Rapla maakonnas ning aeglasem Võru maakonnas.”
Moldova and Estonia show how different democracies can be
(The Economist)
“Indeed, take Moldova. Like Estonia, it declared independence from the Soviet Union in August 1991. Both tiny countries have big Russian minorities, and both have struggled with emigration and shrinking populations. Yet in many ways they are polar opposites. Estonia joined the European Union in 2004 and the euro zone in 2011; Moldova’s eu candidacy ground to a halt. …”
(De)friending in the Baltics: Lessons from Facebook’s Sputnik Crackdown
by Indra Ekmanis - FPRI
“On January 17, Facebook shut down more than 350 pages and accounts linked to Russian state-owned media company, Rossiya Segodnya, and its radio and online service, Sputnik. Citing “coordinated inauthentic behavior,” the social media monolith nixed the 289 pages and 75 accounts tied to the outlets across the Baltic states, Central and Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.”
—
“Fourteen pages targeting Latvia had more than 40,000 followers; eight pages aimed at Estonia garnered another 19,000. That’s up to 1.5 to 2 percent of the total populations of the countries, which is no small reach for pages amassing largely unsuspecting followers. …”
Kaljulaid: Leaders are unprepared for nuclear threat
(Politico-Europe - 17. Feb.)
"My generation of politicians has not had to deal with a discussion over nuclear security, how we control these risks because these treaties have always been there.”
Lukašenko välistas Valgevene liitmise Venemaaga
(ERR | RFERL)
“Lukashenka Says Russia Won't 'Swallow' Belarus.”
Viie aastaga on Donbassis hukkunud 13,000 ukrainlast
(Postimees)
“… nende seas 3,000 sõjaväelast …”
Thursday
28. February 2019
How Trump Killed the Atlantic Alliance
And How the Next President Can Restore It
(Foreign Affairs)
“The alliance died slowly, then all at once. For the first two years of Trump’s presidency, European leaders behaved like abused spouses, mistreated but afraid to leave, hoping against hope that things would improve. Faced with overwhelming evidence that Trump did not believe in the concept of alliances and viewed Europe more as a rival than a partner, they clung to the vain hope that the “adults in the room”—the experienced foreign policy advisers around Trump—would restrain the president’s worst instincts.”
—
“The European fantasy held—more or less—for Trump’s first two years, but reality is now setting in. There will be no transatlantic alliance under Trump.”
—
“So, is the transatlantic breach permanent? Not necessarily. The old relationship is dead, but a new one can emerge.”
Kaljulaid: töö NATO idatiiva tugevdamiseks peab jätkuma
(Postimees)
“Slovakkias Košices toimub täna nn Bukarest9 formaadis riigipeade kohtumine, kus julgeolekuteemadel arutavad Eesti, Läti, Leedu, Poola, Ungari, Slovakkia, Tšehhi, Bulgaaria ja Rumeenia presidendid.”
NATO Secretary General stresses importance of transatlantic unity on visit to Slovakia
(NATO)
“Mr Stoltenberg joined the meeting of the Bucharest-9 presidents. He stressed that this will be a year of celebrations for NATO, noting that the Alliance will celebrate its 70th anniversary. In addition, this year also marks the anniversary of twenty years since the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland became members of NATO, as well as fifteen years since Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Slovakia joined the NATO family.”
What is The Bucharest-9?
(Polish Institute of International Affairs)
“Over the last four years, nine countries—Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia—have managed to establish a recurrent format of political consultation, coordination, and cooperation within NATO. Dubbed the Bucharest Nine, or B9, is widely seen within the Alliance as the “voice of the Eastern Flank” and has mostly pursued NATO adaptation to the growing Russian threat.”
Danske Money-Laundering Scandal Threatens to Rock Estonia's Election
(Bloomberg)
“… where the $230-billion Danske Bank A/S scandal has dented the establishment’s image. Now the two main political forces -- the ruling Center Party and the opposition Reform Party -- are facing a populist, anti-immigration party that has emerged as potential spoiler before Sunday’s general elections.”
Poola moderniseerib 49 miljardi dollari eest sõjaväge
(ERR)
“Poola teatas neljapäeval, et kulutab 2026. aastani 49 miljardit dollarit relvajõudude moderniseerimiseks, ostes uusi hävitajaid, lennukeid ja allveelaevu.”
Erkki Koort: maailmakord lõppes Krimmis?
(Postimees)
“Krimmi hõivamine algas Ukrainale äärmiselt ebasoodsal ajal, sest riik oli suuresti juhitamatu.”
“Krimmi hõivamine lepiti kokku Krimmis.”
The heroism, banditry and naivete of the Latvian Forest Brothers
(Latvian Broadcasting)
“On 1. October 1944 a German intelligence plane left an airfield in Eastern Prussia. It flew across Latvia and dropped three groups of paratroopers behind enemy lines. The Russians destroyed one of them, and there's no information about the fate of the second one. But the third took shelter near Baltinava – a municipality on the current border with Russia. What was surprising is that these groups were comprised of Latvians and they weren't planning to collect intelligence for the Nazis but instead to organize a resistance movement. The group's leader was 24-year-old Pēteris Supe …”
Koprad mürgeldasid kesklinnas
(Lõuna Leht)
 |
| Foto: Janika Usin - Lõuna Leht |
Kas ka sina levitad Sputniku graafikuid?
(Propastop)
“Materjali jagamine pakub Venemaa propagandamaterjalidele täiendava auditooriumi, võimaldab polariseerida Eesti ühiskonda ning levitada Kremli Eesti-vastaseid narratiive. Sputniku infograafikate osas hakkab silma üks ühine joon – nende seas puuduvad positiivsed näited Eesti kohta.”
#DigitalResilience: Life of a Fake
(Digital Forensic Research)
“A fabricated blog post written under a false name about Eastern European history continues to circulate a year after its peak on Russian-language internet. … An article about a Facebook post allegedly written by Veikko Korhonen, a Finnish blogger, in which he “shocked Facebook” with his pro-Russia interpretation of historical events, spiked on the Russian internet in Dec. 2017.”
—
“The article was based on an ahistorical [‘lack of concern for history’] narrative that portrayed Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union as the “liberators” of their Western neighbors. …”
Swedbank
Swedbank actively courted high-rolling, non-resident clients
(Bloomberg | ERR)
“The bank, via its Estonian subsidiary, had placed job postings which stated roles would include helping ''Russian and Commonwealth of Independent States [CIS] customers achieve their goals.”
—
"Hidden transactions of a Russian oligarch at Swedbank."
“Yanukovych's money could have gone through Swedbank's Lithuanian branch.”
“Bank of Lithuania warns about false messages to Swedbank clients.”
“Swedbanki kliendid ei pea muretsema.”
“Swedbank drops share value by 20%.”
“Clients Who Quit Nordea Now Find Themselves in Swedbank Fire.”
"Tõe ja õiguse" filmiga kasvas hüppeliselt huvi Tammsaare raamatute vastu
(ERR)
"Tõde ja õigus" on kinodes jooksnud napilt nädala, kuid kära filmi ümber on hüppeliselt kasvatanud inimeste huvi nii raamatukogudes kui ka -poodides A. H. Tammsaare raamatute vastu.”
Wednesday
27. February 2019
Internetis hääletas rekordilised 247,000 valijat
(ERR | Delfi)
“Kolmapäeva õhtul kell 18 lõppes riigikogu valimiste elektrooniline hääletamine ning internetis andis oma hääle rekordilised 247 232 valijat, jaoskonnas hääletas 99 163 inimest. Kokku osales eelhääletamisel 346 395 inimest ehk 39,3 protsenti valijaist.”
“Kommunikatsiooniekspert Raul Rebase hinnangul on aastal 2025 Eestis e-hääletamine valimistel peamine viis hääletada.”
“Kolmandik eestlasi on valimistel juba osalenud, sündis eelhääletuse rekord.”
The Kremlin’s election compass on Estonia
(Propastop)
“Propastop, in collaboration with the monitoring company Meedius, carried out a survey on how much Estonian political parties were mentioned in the Russian media.”
—
“In total, Estonian political parties were mentioned in 564 news items in three months. Estonian political parties were mentioned the most by sputniknews (204 articles), baltnews (93) as well as the news agency news.rambler (82).”
Ertsma külas tähistati punkrilahingu 70. aastapäeva
(ERR)
“Pärnu-Jaagupi lähedal Ertsma külas tähistati 70 aasta möödumist punkrilahingust, kus julgeolekuvägedega võideldes hukkus seitse metsavenda. Ainus ellujäänu, Mihkel Ellermaa, sai raskelt haavata ja saadeti Siberisse.”
NATO’s Pointless Burden Sharing Debates
by Anthony Cordesman
(CSIS - 21. Feb.)
“The United States and its European allies have fixated on one of the most meaningless and truly stupid strategic debates in modern history: the extent to which given NATO countries spend 2% of their GDP on defense by 2024.”
—
NATO needs to scrap this goal … nations should be judged by how they meet the need for common defense, and not some arbitrary spending goal.”
Allikad: USA tegi küberrünnaku Vene trollivabriku vastu
(ERR)
The west must not abandon Crimea and Ukraine to Russian aggression
(The Guardian | RFERL)
“Today, the people of Ukraine are more united than ever in their support for their country’s European orientation. Ukraine still has many demanding tasks and reforms to implement, but impressive progress has been made despite ongoing Russian aggression. Ukraine of today is profoundly different from Ukraine pre-2014, and has never before been so close to Europe and European values. By contrast, Crimea under Russian occupation is moving backwards. The people living there are ever more isolated, and the situation with respect to human rights and socio-economic conditions continues to deteriorate.”
“The United States has reaffirmed that it will maintain sanctions on Russia until it returns control of Crimea to Ukraine, nearly five years after Moscow annexed the peninsula. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Russia's occupation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 has fueled "an escalation of Russian aggression."
"Crimea is Ukraine and must be returned to Ukraine’s control.”
“From 'Not Us' To 'Why Hide It?': How Russia Denied Its Crimea Invasion, Then Admitted It.”
EU27 citizens see no big Brexit hit for them, but think Brits will be ‘worse off’: poll
(Politico-Europe)
“… 44 percent saying Britain would be "worse off," and 31 percent seeing no "significant change" for post-Brexit Brits.”
Tuesday
26 . February 2019
Milestone for Nordic-Baltic e-ID
(Nordic Co-operation)
“In a couple of years, Nordic and Baltic citizens will be able to use their national electronic IDs to access public services when they move to, work in or study in any other country in the region.”
Riigikogu valimistel on eelhääletanud 23 protsenti valijatest
(Postimees)
“Täna hommikul kella kaheksase seisuga on riigikogu valimistel oma hääle andnud 202 644 valijat, mis moodustab 23,1 protsenti valijate üldarvust. Elektrooniliselt on antud 158 556 häält, jaoskondades 44 088 häält.”
https://poliitika.postimees.ee/6531783/riigikogu-valimistel-on-eelhaaletanud-23-protsenti-valijatest
Valimiste lähenedes värvus Eesti kaart kirjuks
(ERR)
“Support by electoral district split between Centre, Reform, EKRE.”
Kas Kreml õhutab Eestis vaktsiinivastasust?
(Propastop)
Winged, sea-skimming GEVs planned for half-hour Helsinki-Tallinn trips
(Yle)
“Estonian firm Sea Wolf Express is planning to offer travellers the chance to cross the Gulf of Finland in about 30 minutes aboard its 12-seater Russian-built ground effect vehicle (GEV).
—
The company said it aims to put its GEV into service next year, but plans hinge on approval from safety regulators. … Sea Wolf Express has yet to apply for the permits required to operate the GEV between Finland and Estonia …”
Monday
25. February 2019
Kaljulaid: the story of Estonia is an example and a source of hope for many people around the world
(Baltic Times)
“Ilves: 101st anniversary indicative of Estonia heading towards self-actualization”
“Speaker of the Riigikogu Eiki Nestor: Estonia is a strong country if we believe in it.”
Tallinn tunnel tug of war
(Yle)
“There are two competing projects to create the 100km tunnel linking the two cities. One is based on a study commissioned by a group of local authorities in the Helsinki region and is backed by the Transport and Communications Ministry. The other is a private venture led by Finnish marketing guru and entrepreneur Peter Vesterbacka who picked up a 100 million euro investment for his project late last year.”
Podcast: The Baltic Front
(CEPA - 8. Feb.)
[With Lithuania's foreign minister Linas Linkevičius.]
“Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have all turned vulnerability into a virtue—and have become leaders in resisting Russian revanchism, aggression, and malign influence.”
Interview: Lieutenant-Colonel Philippe Sauvé
Commander of NATO's Latvia-based battle group
(Latvian Broadcasting)
Merkel and Europe are through with Trump
(McClatchy DC)
“Munich is where German Chancellor Angela Merkel just stood up at an important annual security conference and said that she was, effectively, done with counting on the Americans. The Munich Security Conference is also where Vice President Mike Pence stood up to scold allies for sticking with a multilateral Iranian agreement and hollowly cheerlead for the White House. For his tone-deaf remarks, he was rewarded with stone-cold silence and a primarily European audience’s outright disrespect for Trump. This regrettable reality — a disregarded America — threatens to become the new normal.”
Russia
“Trust No One”
Rand Report: Russia’s Hostile Measures in Europe
by Raphael S. Cohen, Andrew Radin
[Free PDF download.]
“The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are often cited as being among the members of the EU and NATO that are most vulnerable to Russian influence. Possible motivations for Russian activities in the region include undermining and addressing the potential threat from the EU and NATO. There are distinctions between Russian foreign policy interests in the Baltics and those in the other former Soviet states, however. For example, Russian analysts and some U.S. analysts of Russia note lower Russian interests and objectives for influence in the Baltics. Therefore, although Russia's intentions to use hostile measures in the Baltics remain real, the measures available and willingness to commit significant resources appear to be greater for other former Soviet republics, including Ukraine, Belarus, and the Central Asian states.”
How Putin’s Russia Is Rebuilding the Iron Curtain
by Anna Nemtsova
(The Daily Beast)
“According to recent polls up to 41 percent of young people say they want to live abroad. Rich Russians, well-educated young people, businessmen and bankers are running away, taking vast sums of money with them. Last year the outflow reached a record $67.5 billion. …”
US wiped hard drives at Russia's Internet Research Agency 'troll factory' in last year's hack
(ZDNet)
“A cyber-attack by a US security agency against Russia's infamous troll factory has resulted in a destroyed server RAID controller and formatted hard drives. … IRA news site reveals what happened last year on the day before the US midterm elections.”
https://www.zdnet.com/article/us-wiped-some-hard-drives-of-russias-troll-factory-in-last-years-hack/
Another Step Forward Toward ‘Sovereign’ Russian Internet
(Jamestown Org.)
“On February 20, Putin told reporters that the country could be cut off from the global Internet due to the “unpredictability of our partners.” The Kremlin leader added, however, that Russia is not going to wall itself off from the global Internet. Yet, his assurances contradicted a bill passed weeks earlier by the Russian State Duma …”
Per pro-Kremlin TASS:
“On February 12, Russia’s lower house of parliament, the State Duma, passed a bill in the first reading on the stable operation of the Russian Internet, known as Runet. The authors of this initiative suggested cutting the volume of data, exchanged by Russian users, and which is sent abroad.”
‘Unorganized’ Change at the Top in Russia a Small but Real Risk to Country’s Economy, Moody’s Says
by Paul Goble
(Window on Eurasia)
“Moody’s Investors Service says that “unorganized” regime change is “a distant but tangible one,” … Moody’s is viewing the situation solely from point of view of markets which do not like change and thus is warning both Putin and his opponents against any sharp turns …”
“Russia’s Cossacks Also Beginning to Look Beyond Putin.”
Information on Vladimir Putin's personal wealth is the target of a new House bill
(ABCNews - USA)
“A former U.S. Treasury official, who studied Russian illicit finance, told ABC News he was skeptical of any public calculations about Putin's wealth because Russia's financial system is notoriously opaque, and because Putin likely wouldn't hold many assets in his own name anyway.”
—
"Let's say he has assets. He's going to have it held through a layer of very trusted people. His name's never going to be on it," the ex-official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said. "Even if that were happening, it would be challenging to penetrate [that scheme]."
“USA kongressi eelnõu soovib luureraportit Putini varanduse kohta.”
Soviet Leaders Engaged in Far Less Sabre Rattling than Putin Feels Compelled to
(Window on Eurasia)
Looking Behind the Curtain of the Kremlin's Nuclear Saber-Rattling
by Edward Lucas
(CEPA)
“Just like Leonid Brezhnev, Vladimir Putin genuinely dislikes the idea of new U.S. missiles being deployed in Europe. He issues dire warnings of retaliatory deployments. But he is no fool. He knows that Russia is not the Soviet Union.”
—
“Russia’s really powerful weapon is headlines. Threatening a new arms race achieves two goals. One is to weaken European support for NATO. … The other part of Putin’s plan is to stoke American discontent with the Atlantic alliance.”
Putin has Three Far-Reaching Goals in Playing Nuclear Card Against West Now
(Window on Eurasia)
“… the first of these involves the Kremlin’s domestic audience. Putin wants to show himself only as the defender of the Russian people … Second, Putin wants to create “the illusion of confrontation between Russia and the US.” that is useful to both him and to Trump. … And third, it is likely, (Kseniya) Kirillova says, that Moscow’s messages in this regard “are addressed not so much to Donald Trump as to his opponents” in the US …”
Pro-Kremlin pundits gleefully (and incorrectly) imagine a missile strike against the U.S.
(Meduza)
Specter of new arms race has Russia recalling Soviets’ fate
(Christian Science Monitor)
“With new weapons development and the end of the INF treaty, a new nuclear arms race seems all too possible to Russians. Lessons from the last one, which ended in the USSR’s collapse, may prove critical.”
Opinion: The Kremlin Hierarchy Is Fast Decaying
(The Moscow Times)
“Anonymous Russian Telegram channels, which over the past year have begun to position themselves as an alternative media source, suddenly last week launched a campaign against Dmitry Peskov, President Vladimir Putin’s press secretary. … Normally, this news wouldn’t be a very big deal. But as several credible investigations revealed, a large number of these channels are actually directly connected to the Russian government. This points to the attack against Peskov coming from within.”
When Putin goes, will Putinism persist?
(Christian Science Monitor)
“Vladislav Surkov, the Kremlin’s once-foremost ideologist, last week argued in a newspaper article that the political regime set up by Vladimir Putin is itself a complete ideology – a “Putinism” – that can survive any challenges, even the loss of its founder.”
Opinion: Putin’s One Weapon: The ‘Intelligence State’
“Russia’s leader has restored the role its intelligence agencies had in the Soviet era — keep citizens in check and destabilize foreign adversaries.”
(New York Times)
Kremlin Propaganda Now Focuses Not on Boosting Russia but on Denigrating West
(Window on Eurasia)
“It encourages Russians to put up with corruption, lack of democracy and other shortcomings in Russia today because they are convinced not only that the situation is no better elsewhere in the world but that the Russian opposition would behave the same way as those now in power do.”
Russia Might Talk Tough But its Navy is a Shrinking Wonder
(Foxtrot Alpha)
“The Russian Navy is in trouble. After years of coasting on the largesse of the Cold War, Russia’s navy is set to tumble in size and relevance over the next two decades. Older ships and equipment produced for the once-mighty Soviet Navy are wearing out and the country can’t afford to replace them.”
https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/russia-might-talk-tough-but-its-navy-is-a-shrinking-won-1832805856
** EstoNews Privacy Notice **
Your email address is kept in a secure file only for the purpose of mailing you this newsletter. Your name and email address will never be used for any other purpose, except for the rare occurrence that EstoNews needs to contact you. This privacy notice may be updated over time as required.
___________
_______
___
