"The integration of Belarus into the Russian military system is now a done deal. NATO needs to change its strategy and military plans accordingly.”
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, left,
meets Latvian President Egils Levits, centre,
and Estonian President Alar Karis in Vilnius, Lithuania
(Photo: Janis Laizans | Reuters | 15. November 2021)
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Friday 19. Nov.
Raekoja platsi jõulukuuse toomine läks tänavu lepase reega
(Postimees)
“Järgmine nädal kulub kuuse ehtimiseks … Kohe algab ka jõuluturu majakeste paigaldamine … Jõulutuled süttivad järgmisel reedel!”
Arvamus: Euroopa vendluse tõus
(Postimees)
“On vana tuntud tõde, et miski ei aita omavahelisi nääklemisi paremini ületada kui ühine vaenlane. Nii on Lukašenka oma hübriidrünnakuga saavutanud vastupidise tulemuse sellele, mida ta lootis. Solidaarsus Euroopa rahvaste vahel piiride kaitsmiseks on kasvamas, ühenduse idaosas iseäranis.”
—
“Euroopa suudab oma piire kaitsta vaid üheskoos. Mida varem jõuab see teadmine kõigini Euroopa Liidus, seda paremini suudame toime tulla selle krooniliseks kujuneva probleemiga.”
Ukraine in the Crosshairs
(Foreign Affairs)
“This past spring, Russia amassed 100,000 troops and a host of military equipment near the Ukrainian border in a transparent bid to threaten Kyiv; it seemed that an invasion might be imminent. Then, Russia withdrew most of its forces, claiming they had completed a training exercise, and the crisis was averted.
—
“Fast-forward six months, and the situation has once again turned dire. Roughly 100,000 Russian troop have gathered at the border, along with tanks and artillery systems.”
—
“The situation feels familiar, yet it is not clear which direction Russia will go. Will it withdraw as it did in April? Or is Russia planning something more ominous this time around?”
“Is Russia Preparing to Invade Ukraine?” - Foreign Policy
“Russia Unlikely to Invade Ukraine Despite Ratcheting Tensions, Experts Believe.” - The Moscow Times
Reservvägi saabus rasketehnika ja lõiketraadiga idapiiri kindlustama
(Lõuna-Postimees)
“Välja kuulutatud reservväelaste lisaõppekogunemisel Okas 2021 osalejad saabusid neljapäeval Võrumaale Nursipalu harjutusväljakule, et teha kõigepealt tutvust kaitseväe uue rasketehnikaga ja tuletada meelde oskusi, mida neil läheb lähipäevil vaja Eesti-Vene piiril ajutise piiritara ehitustöödel.”
Belarus's Lukashenko tells BBC: We may have helped migrants into EU
(BBC)
"We're Slavs. We have hearts. Our troops know the migrants are going to Germany. Maybe someone helped them. I won't even look into this," he added. … "I told [the EU] I'm not going to detain migrants on the border, hold them at the border, and if they keep coming from now on I still won't stop them, because they're not coming to my country, they're going to yours," he told me. "But I didn't invite them here. And to be honest, I don't want them to go through Belarus."
“Belarus deeply divided over migrant arrivals.” - Deutsche Welle
Lukašenka: täitsa võimalik, et Valgevene väed aitasid migrante üle Poola piiri
(Delfi)
“Valgevene diktaator Aljaksandr Lukašenka tunnistas intervjuus BBC-le, et on täiesti võimalik, et tema väed aitasid migrantidel Poola pääseda, kuid eitas migrantide riiki meelitamist.”
—
“Ma ei kavatse migrante piiril kinni pidada, neid piiril kinni hoida, sest nad ei tulnud minu riiki”, ütles diktaator. "Aga ma ei kutsunud neid siia. Ja ausalt öeldes ma ei taha, et nad läbi Valgevene läheksid."
“Hundreds of Iraqis sent home from Belarus as border crisis subsides.” - Washington Post
MS Estonia: New expedition confirms official accident report
(Euronews)
“A new research expedition to the wreck of the M/S Estonia ferry that sank in the Baltic Sea in 1994 has not provided fresh evidence contradicting the official accident investigation report, the Estonian, Finnish, and Swedish safety investigation authorities said on Tuesday. … the wreck is resting on a slope on the seabed and that the position of the wreck has changed due to changes in the seabed over the years.”
Thursday 18. Nov.
Europe Needs to Step Up on Defense
(Foreign Affairs)
“Security and defense are suddenly back on Europe’s agenda. … And although President Joe Biden’s commitment to NATO’s Article 5 pledge—to treat an attack against one NATO member as “an attack against them all”—remains ironclad, polling suggests that on both sides of the political spectrum, Americans’ appetite for military intervention to resolve conflicts in Europe’s broader neighborhood has waned in recent years. Alert to this trend, European officials increasingly recognize that Europe must begin to take charge of its own security.”
Estonian foreign minister: Lukashenko wants sanctions to be halted and be recognised as head of state
(The Guardian)
“Lukashenko’s gambit has appeared (to be) a miscalculation. Europe has shown that it is ready to back Poland … And European leaders will not be extorted to recognise a leader whose “gangster-style tactics” have created its worst border crisis in decades.”
“EU leaders' contacts with Lukashenko legitimize him, Lithuanian parlt speaker says.” - Baltic Times
The Belarus Crisis and the Union State Military Doctrine
(Jamestown Org.)
“Belarus and Moscow have signed a new Union State Military Doctrine, though the document remains unpublished. This comes within the context of the Belarus crisis that began with President Alyaksandr Lukashenko’s disputed reelection on August 9, 2020, and recently worsened due to the migrant issues on the borders with Poland, Latvia and Lithuania.”
—
“The new version of the military doctrine takes into account the realities of the geopolitical and military-strategic situation in Europe, [as well as] military threats, both traditional and new: the expansion of NATO [the North Atlantic Treaty Organization] and the buildup of its military potential, technologies of color revolutions and provoking internal conflicts, the use of extremist and terrorist structures, private military campaigns, and challenges in cyberspace,” adding, “The adoption of the new military doctrine will allow Belarus and Russia to systematically and jointly respond to the challenges and threats to the national security of the two countries existing in the region.”
“Putin and Lukashenko ratified a package of 28 integration roadmaps and a new joint military doctrine on November 4, a milestone in the Kremlin’s campaign to integrate Belarus under the Kremlin-dominated Union State.” - ISW, Russia in Review point #6
Belarus clears migrant camps at EU border, but crisis not yet over
(Reuters)
“Belarus authorities on Thursday cleared the main camps where migrants had huddled at the border with Poland, in a change of tack that could help calm a crisis that has spiralled in recent weeks into a major East-West confrontation. … The camp clearances came during a week of intensified diplomacy. Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke by telephone twice to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, normally shunned by European leaders.”
“Ligi pool tuhat iraaklast lendas koju.” - Postimees
Is Europe in Denial About Russia?
(Carnegie Europe)
“Most European leaders are disillusioned with Russia. But continuing divisions inside the EU over how to deal with the Kremlin prevent a coherent Russia strategy and play into the hands of Putin.”
“Confronting the Kremlin's New Hybrid War in Europe.” - Project Syndicate
Wednesday 17. Nov.
Estonia to build new border barriers
(Politico-Europe)
“Almost 1,700 reservists will be deployed in a snap military exercise to erect new barriers at the frontier as the migration crisis continues at the Polish-Belarusian border. While Estonia has no border with Belarus, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been accused by Poland of orchestrating the buildup of migrants attempting to enter the EU — an allegation denied by the Kremlin.”
—
“What is happening in Poland, Lithuania and Latvia also requires the strengthening of the border infrastructure in Estonia,” said Elmar Vaher, chief of Estonia’s Police and Border Guard Board.”
“Latvian military training launched near Belarus border.” - Latvian Broadcasting
Tense situation in Europe not direct threat to Estonia's borders - Kallas
(ERR)
"The security situation is indeed dangerous and tense, particularly over the last few days, if we look at what Belarus is doing on the border of the EU and how it has weaponized people against the union. … The reservists are summoned as of today and the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) will erect the barrier there within eight days.”
Finland fears migrants will be sent to their border with Russia
(Euronews)
“The Finnish government will face a vote of no confidence in parliament, called by opposition parties over security concerns on the eastern border with Russia. Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s opponents -- led by the right-wing Finns Party, and centre-right parties Kokoomus, Christian Democrats and Movement Now -- claim that her red-green coalition has done little to secure the border from potential "hybrid tactics" that they fear Russia might use against the Nordic nation. Specifically, they want new legislation passed to allow crossings on the 1,340-kilometre border to be closed temporarily, even to asylum seekers.”
Even Sweden Doesn’t Want Migrants Anymore
(Foreign Policy)
“Earlier this month, Swedish Minister of Finance Magdalena Andersson delivered her maiden speech as head of the Swedish Social Democratic Party and thus, the presumptive successor to longtime Prime Minister Stefan Lofven. Andersson began, predictably enough, by celebrating the triumph of the Swedish welfare state over the neoliberalism of the “grinning bankers on Wall Street.” Then, in a turn that shocked some loyal party members, Andersson directly addressed the country’s 2 million-odd refugees and migrants. “If you are young,” she said, “you must obtain a high school diploma and go on to get a job or higher education.” If you receive financial aid from the state, “you must learn Swedish and work a certain number of hours a week.” What’s more, “here in Sweden, both men and women work and contribute to welfare.” Swedish gender equality applies “no matter what fathers, mothers, spouses, or brothers think and feel.”
NATO Head Jen Stoltenberg Criticizes Russia for Ukraine Border Buildup
(The National Interest)
“Stoltenberg’s remarks came after his meeting with Dmytro Kuleba, the foreign minister of Ukraine, who raised the issue of Russian troops along the border. Following war games conducted along the border earlier in the year, Moscow simply left tens of thousands of troops nearby—a number that the Ukrainian government has estimated at roughly ninety thousand, and claimed that some of them had entered the territory in eastern Ukraine controlled by pro-Russian separatist groups. …”
Ukraine: Escalating Belarus border crisis could pose a security threat
(Atlantic Council)
“At present, the crisis is focused on a few specific points along the Belarusian-Polish border. However, any further escalations could potentially pose a threat to Poland’s neighbor and partner, Ukraine, which has a long and vulnerable shared border of over 1,000 km with Belarus. …”
Belarus: Lukashenko agrees to EU talks on ending migrant standoff
(Deutsche Welle)
“German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko agreed Wednesday that the crisis on the Belarus-Poland border needs to be solved by dialogue between EU and Belarusian representatives, Belarus' state-run Belta news agency reported.”
Estonia's IT sector will be short 7,000 employees in coming years
(ERR)
“… and it is clear that neither the Estonian education system nor businesses will be able to train this number of specialists for the market.”
1944. aasta suurpõgenemine / The Mass Flight of 1944
(Facebook)
Tuesday 16. Nov.
Estonia, Lithuania, UK and France take part in Põhjakonn military exercise
(ERR)
“Lt. Col. Jaanus Ainsalu, commander of the Viru regiment leading the exercise, said the current situation on the border of the European Union's eastern border in Poland shows that military co-operation exercises are very necessary. "We have to be ready for such things and this exercise was an indication that we are ready. These volunteers who are out here today are very good and do good work, they have the will to come [and defend] their homeland when the situation calls for it.”
“Military training launched near Latvia-Belarus border.” - Latvian Broadcasting
Baltic states say Belarus must be held accountable for human trafficking
(CBC)
"The integration of Belarus into the Russian military system is now a done deal. NATO needs to change its strategy and military plans accordingly.”
Estonia introduces its positions to Europe on new EU forest strategy
(Baltic Times)
"Forests, their protection and use varies across Europe to a great degree -- each state has its own history and traditions with forestry and they must be taken into consideration. Thus, shaping the forestry policy, including development plans, must continuously be decided by each state on their own also in the future."
A Dictator Is Exploiting These Human Beings
By Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic
“Belarus’s ruler has used asylum seekers to destabilize the EU. And he’s not the only one profiting politically from their misfortune.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/11/belarus-eu-poland-migrants-refugees-border/620700/
New border system rule for non-EU travellers coming in 2022
(Euronews)
“In a move to tighten security across the continent, electronic passport scanners are being installed to check the status of non-EU nationals, including Brits, Americans and Australians.”
- Euronews - 15. Nov
The Bad Guys Are Winning
By Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic Magazine
“If the 20th century was the story of slow, uneven progress toward the victory of liberal democracy over other ideologies—communism, fascism, virulent nationalism—the 21st century is, so far, a story of the reverse.”
—
“On August 9, election officials announced that Lukashenko had won 80 percent of the vote, a number nobody believed. The internet was cut off, and Tsikhanouskaya was detained by police and then forced out of the country. Mass demonstrations unfolded across Belarus. … The regime immediately pushed back, with real brutality.”
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