Putin's plans to keep the Baltics in check
By Michael Weiss and Holger Roonemaa
(Yahoo News)
“Yahoo News has obtained confidential strategy documents drawn up by the Kremlin that reveal Russia’s ambitious plans to exert its influence in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Formerly annexed states of the Soviet Union, all three are now proud NATO and EU members with governments fiercely critical of Russia’s foreign policy.”
—
“Among other things, the documents show Moscow’s intention to thwart the construction of NATO military bases, weaken the local democratic governments, expand Russian cultural and linguistic influence and bolster pro-Kremlin political organizations. But in a running theme throughout the documents, which were drafted in 2021, Russia’s subsequent invasion of Ukraine has undermined almost every aspect of the plans.”
—
“Estonia, our allies and partners have long been aware of Russia’s interest to use hybrid tactics to pursue their goals and try to assert their influence in other countries,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told Yahoo News. “It’s Russia’s classic playbook — many of their tactics are taken straight from the KGB.”
—
“The documents were drafted by the Russian Presidential Administration’s Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation, which formulated similar plans, previously revealed by Yahoo News, for the creeping annexation of Belarus and the toppling of Moldova’s pro-Western government.”
https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-putins-plans-to-keep-the-baltics-in-check-220033457.html
“Russia's secret strategy documents reveal plans involving Baltic states.” - Postimees
“Russia wants to restore its influence in Baltic states by 2030, strategy documents show.” - The New Voice of Ukraine
“Russia's Secret Plans for Baltic States Exposed.” - Newsweek
“How Russia deploys Baltic Sea topics to influence European scientists.” - ERR
Eesti kohta lekkinud plaan annab aimu Kremli valearvestustest
(Postimees)
“Kremlist lekkis järjekordne kaalukas tõend Venemaa plaanist nõrgestada Balti riike, milleks sobivad idanaabrile nii valeinfo massiline levitamine, inimeste ärakasutamine mõjutustegevuses kui ka Eesti liitlaste ühtsuse lõhkumine.”
—
“Lekkinud dokumendid koostati Vene presidendi administratsiooni piiriülese koostöö valitsuses 2021. aasta suvel ja sügisel. Muu hulgas näitavad need Moskva kavatsust nurjata Baltimaades NATO sõjaväebaaside ehitamine, nõrgestada kohalikke demokraatlikke valitsusi, laiendada Venemaa kultuurilist ja keelelist mõju ning tugevdada Kremli-meelseid poliitilisi organisatsioone, vahendas Yahoo News. Postimehega kõnelenud rahvasaadikute jaoks kordasid Putin ja tema lähikondlased selle salaplaaniga vanu ideid ning meetodeid oma eesmärkide elluviimiseks, ent dokument andis taas ühe tõendi, et Kremli mõjutustegevus Eestis niipea ei lakka.”
https://www.postimees.ee/7762622/eesti-kohta-lekkinud-plaan-annab-aimu-kremli-valearvestustest
“Venemaa plaanib kasutada keskkonnateemasid Balti riikide mõjutamiseks.” - ERR
EDF Colonel: Russia to form new units close to Estonian border by 2026
(EER)
“As we know, Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu has come up with his program, which envisages a significant increase of forces in our region by 2026. This will probably start with the 25th and 138th brigades being transformed into divisions. We expect that the name change will happen first, as both brigades have been deployed to Ukraine for combat," EDF’s Col. Eero Rebo said.”
—
“Russia's Western Military District will be divided into two. One part would remain in the direction of Moscow, covering the northern part of Belarus and Ukraine. There are also plans to create a separate military district in St. Petersburg, which would face Finland and the Baltic states. This structural change would allow the Putin regime to apply concrete military pressure on a larger scale.”
—
“… there will be no significant increase in capabilities near Estonia's borders over the next six months," Rebo added.”
https://news.err.ee/1608962800/edf-colonel-russia-plans-to-form-new-units-close-to-estonian-border
“Estonia Transfers Its Newly Established Division To Multinational Corps Northeast.” - NATO press release
Kolonel Rebo: Venemaa asus Eesti piiride lähistel diviise taaslooma
(ERR)
“Venemaa on asunud nii Eesti piiride kui ka Soome piiride lähistel suurendama armee isikkoosseisu ning formeerima uusi üksusi … Nagu teada on siis Vene kaitseminister Šoigu käis välja oma programmi, mis siis 2026. aastaks näeb ette siin meie regioonis oluliselt jõudude suurenemise. Tõenäoliselt see saab alguse sellega, et 25. ja 138. brigaad muudetakse diviisideks. Me eeldame, et kõigepealt toimub nimemuutus, sest mõlemad brigaadid on rakendatud Ukrainasse lahingutesse.”
https://www.err.ee/1608962662/rebo-venemaa-asus-eesti-piiride-lahistel-diviise-taaslooma
______________
Cover drone photo: Ilmar R. - 7. aprill 2023
https://paranull.blogspot.com/2022/05/koluvere-loss.html
Koluvere Loss
______________
Friday 28. April
Võrumaa’s Mari Kalkun announced her seventh album
‘The Stories of Stonia’
By Silver Tambur
(Estonian World)
“… which will be released on 7. July 2023 on Real World Records and is preceded by the single “Tõistmuudu” (“Otherwise”).”
—
“On the album Kalkun sings in Võro – the language of her native region of Võrumaa (Võru County), which is estimated to have only 75,000 speakers. “Võro has very old layers of tradition that connect me to my ancestors,” she explained, adding that she sees Võro as a threatened “microcosm”.
—
[Saw Ms. Kalkun perform during one of my trips to Võrumaa. Wonderful singer / musician. - Aavo]
 |
| Screenshot from Mari Kalkun’s video: ‘Tõistmuudu’ (Otherwise) |
Vene propagandist: ‘Mis Eesti? Sellist riiki pole kunagi olemas olnud’
(Postimees - subscription)
“Venemaa esipropagandist Vladimir Solovjov rääkis kanalil Rossija 1 oma saates ‘Õhtu Vladimir Solovjoviga’ Eestist, Lätist ja Leedust, sest alles hiljuti jõudis avalikkusse info, mis plaan on Venemaal kolme Balti riigiga, et eelkõige suurendada neis oma mõju. Solovjovi vaatenurgast ei ole neid kolme riiki kunagi eksisteerinud.”
—
“‘Mis Eesti? Sellist riiki pole kunagi olemas olnud. Tänu meile nimetavad nad end riikideks,’ ütles Vene juhtivpropagandist Vladimir Solovjov.”
Russian propagandist: ‘What Estonia? Such a country never existed’
“Vladimir Solovyov, the leading propagandist of Russia, spoke about Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on his program "An Evening with Vladimir Solovyov" on channel Rossiya 1 … it was only recently reported that the information about Russia's plan with the three Baltic countries, primarily to increase its influence in them, became public. From Solovyov's point of view, the 3 states never existed.”
__________
Western officials expressed confidence in Ukraine’s ability to conduct a successful counteroffensive
(ISW)
“NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated on 27. April that NATO has trained and equipped more than nine new Ukrainian brigades, emphasizing that Ukrainian forces are in a “strong” position to retake captured territory in their upcoming counteroffensive. Stoltenberg also stated that NATO and its partners have delivered over 98 % of promised combat vehicles to Ukraine, totaling over 1,550 armored vehicles, 230 tanks, and other unspecified equipment.”
—
“US European Command (EUCOM) Commander General Christopher Cavoli stated that the US has been working closely with Ukrainian forces to develop a counteroffensive plan, and developing techniques to surprise Russian forces.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-27-2023
“Ukraine has almost all promised military vehicles, NATO claims.” - Washington Examiner
Russian propaganda surging on Twitter
(CBC)
“The platform is no longer labelling state-controlled media and propaganda agencies, and will no longer prohibit their content from being automatically promoted or recommended to users. Together, the two changes, both made in recent weeks, have supercharged the Kremlin's ability to use the U.S.-based platform to spread lies and misleading claims about its invasion of Ukraine, U.S. politics and other topics.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/twitter-changes-russian-chinese-propaganda-1.6820779
Russia's Updated Foreign Policy Strategy is Revealingly Delusional and Dark
(The Moscow Times)
“Russia released its latest foreign-policy concept setting out its official view of the world, its major interests and goals, and how it will pursue them. It is Russia’s sixth, and darkest, such statement, following those published in 1993, 2000, 2008, 2013, and 2016.”
Thursday 27. April
Arvamus: Eesti oma tuumajaam oleks vaenlasele magus sihtmärk
(Postimees)
[Estonia's own nuclear plant would be a sweet target for the enemy.]
https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7763064/udo-knaps-eesti-oma-tuumajaam-oleks-vaenlasele-magus-sihtmark
Kaitseväe üksus suundus välisoperatsioonile Iraaki
(ERR)
“Kolmapäeval siirdus Ämari lennubaasist välisoperatsioonile Iraaki jalaväeüksus Estcoy-18, mis hakkab teenima Ameerika Ühendriikide juhitud operatsioonil Inherent Resolve.”
https://www.err.ee/1608961877/kaitsevae-uksus-suundus-valisoperatsioonile-iraaki
Soome ja Läti automaksu võrdlus: lõpphind võib erineda kaks korda
(ERR)
“Kui Eestis seni veel automaksu ei ole, siis nii põhja- kui lõunanaabrite juures on see kehtestatud ning see teeb mõnda tüüpi auto omandamise Soomes pea kaks korda kallimaks kui Lätis.”
https://www.err.ee/1608960959/soome-ja-lati-automaksu-vordlus-lopphind-voib-erineda-kaks-korda
Rootsi: NATO nõuded ja meie tegelik kaitsevajadus erinevad täiesti
(Postimees)
“Rootsi kaitsekomisjon teatas relvastumist pärssivatest asjaoludest: personali, laskemoona ja rajatiste puudus, vahendab Dagens Nyheter. Rootsi parlament (Riksdag) märgib vahearuandes Venemaa sissetungist Ukrainasse tekkinud erakorralisi asjaolusid. «See on väärtuslik julgeolekupoliitiline signaal,» ütles komisjoni esimees Hans Wallmark.”
No alternatives to raising taxes proposed
(BNN)
“Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has stated that the widespread criticism of tax increases is understandable, but no better solutions have been proposed.”
—
“The new Estonian government has decided to increase personal income tax and VAT by two percent, and it will increase from 20% to 22%. Other taxes are expected to be raised as well and the government hopes that the new taxes that will be applied to cars will bring in 120 million euros per year to the state budget. It is expected that the excise tax on fuel will also be increased. The coalition has indicated that the tax changes are necessary to fight the large budget deficit of 1.7 billion euros, which is 4.3% of GDP.”
https://bnn-news.com/kallas-no-alternatives-to-raising-taxes-proposed-245291
“Arvamus: Rahvuslikus mõõtkavas maksuhüsteeria.” - Postimees
“Deadline for filing income tax returns in Estonia falls on 2. May.” - ERR
Russian invasion of Ukraine highlights national identity issues in Lithuania
(France24)
“While Russian imperialism fears are running high again in Lithuania, the response to security concerns has raised concerns over a backsliding on the country's cherished liberal values.”
US Air Force moves refueling mission from Germany to Poland
(Stars & Stripes | Radio Poland)
“US Air Force Reserve and Air National Guard tankers that deploy to Europe will now operate primarily from Powidz Air Base in west-central Poland instead of Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany. … in the coming months, 19 tanker units based stateside would be deployed to Powidz, with several planned operations to support NATO activities.”
https://www.stripes.com/branches/air_force/2023-04-24/tankers-poland-powidz-9902489.html
—
NATO Deterrence and Defense: Military Priorities for the Vilnius Summit
(Real Clear Defence)
“At the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s July summit in Vilnius, the focus will necessarily be on support to Ukraine. But as NATO’s Strategic Concept makes clear, the Alliance also needs to respond to a broader set of challenges, with those arising from Russia particularly acute. This brief focuses on the conventional military threat from Russia, and sets forth six priority actions that NATO should undertake to enhance its deterrent and defense posture.”
“Front-line NATO allies worry they could be next.” - Insider, 23. April
"Estonia has announced that it will deny entry to Russian citizens who want to leave Russia to avoid being drafted into the army."- SchengenVisaInfo
“Ungari vallandas relvajõudude ülema.” - Postimees
Russian court demands Finland reopen Allegro train line
(Yle)
“… reinstating the Allegro train route between Helsinki and St. Petersburg.”
Wednesday 26. April
Kaja Kallas visits Ukraine
(Postimees | European Interest | Reuters)
“… received the Order of Prince Yaroslav the Wise, 2nd Class, from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and affirmed that Estonia believes in Ukraine's victory and future in the European Union and NATO.”
—
“The Estonian Prime Minister emphasized that assistance with weapons, ammunition, and training for the Ukrainian military should continue on a sufficient scale to ensure that Ukraine wins this war.”
—
—
“Estonian Prime Minister met Ukrainian President in a town near Kyiv.” - The Sun - video
“Estonian PM Backs Kyiv's Bid For NATO, EU Membership.” - RFERL
“Ukraine's Zelenskiy thanks Estonia for defense support.” - The Sun - video
“Why NATO Must Admit Ukraine.” - Foreign Affairs
“Bakhmut defenders worry about losing support.” - BBC
“The Free World Must Stay the Course on Ukraine.” - Foreign Affairs
“Poland and Estonia too close to Russia to be neutral, says PM.” - First News
Estonia becomes 10th country to sign declaration of support for Ukraine's NATO membership
(Yahoo News)
“… in addition to Estonia, the first ten countries to officially support Ukraine's NATO membership include the Czech Republic, Belgium, Montenegro, Lithuania, Poland, Italy, Latvia, Iceland, and Slovenia, all of whom have signed similar declarations.”
https://news.yahoo.com/estonia-becomes-10th-country-sign-170100644.html
Baltics condemn China envoy’s stance on ex-Soviet nations
(Politico Europe | AP | Guardian)
“Lu Shaye, China’s ambassador to France, said that former Soviet countries have no ‘effective status’ in international law.”
—
—
“Estonian FM: Chinese diplomat's comments are false, misinterpret history.” - ERR
“The three Baltic states have strongly condemned comments by China’s envoy to France.” - Washington Post
“Paris, Kyiv, Baltic states dismayed after China envoy questions Ukraine sovereignty.” - Reuters
Russia tracks visiting Finns via smartphone IMEI codes
(Yle)
“Russian authorities have demanded that visitors from Finland reveal their smartphones' IMEI codes as they crossed the border into Russia, according to individuals who spoke with Yle. The visitors said Russian border guards started interrogating visitors after Finland's accession to Nato at the beginning of April.”
—
“The 15-digit IMEI codes are device-unique, allowing mobile phone service providers to identify individual devices on mobile phone networks. … It's possible to track an individual if they record the phone owner's personal data and the IMEI code at the border and pair them to each other and then track the phone's movements.”
“Intelligence agents account for one third of Russian embassy staff in Helsinki.” - Yle
“Finland's election winner seeks coalition with far-right.” - Deutsche Welle
Russian ships pose threat in Nordic waters as spies take more risks
(Politico)
“… in intelligence gathering, Norway’s prime minister has warned, just as Europe’s leaders turn their focus to the security of major maritime energy installations. The warning on Monday from Jonas Gahr Støre came on the same day nine European countries agreed to expand production of wind power in the North Sea, but also cautioned that they would need to take further steps to safeguard those facilities. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called security of energy assets “a question of high priority.”
“US submarines will be allowed to make short stops in Iceland.” - Iceland Monitor
“US nuclear-powered submarine stops in Iceland for first time.” - Stars & Stripes
Ukraine condemns Russian nuclear 'blackmail' on Chernobyl anniversary
(Reuters)
“Ukraine marked the 37th anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster on Wednesday by urging the world not to bow to Russian "blackmail" over nuclear facilities it has seized during its invasion.”
“Ukraine Holds Ceremonies Marking Anniversary Of Chernobyl.” - RFERL
Interview: Hungarian opposition MEP Katalin Cseh
(The Problem With Jon Stewart)
“… Viktor Orbán has been playing this double game for so long. … actually he's making deals with shady dictators to our east. Ever since the war broke out, he is the only government leader in Europe that is openly speaking against joint European action. He is acting as a Trojan horse of Vladimir Putin at the European negotiating tables. His state media is spewing Russian propaganda. …”
—
“But we are not giving up in Hungary. We are fighting, and I think we also have to show to the world that we are not only the first to unleash this populist virus on Earth, but we has to be also the ones who are responsible for stopping that. We need to show the way for Hungarians to get a chance for a new leadership, a new way of doing politics, a new way to represent Hungary. Because I truly believe that Viktor Orbán does not represent the majority of our citizens here, because Hungarians are pro-European, they are pro-democracy. Hungarians want to live in a free environment.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9DPv7RX4QY
“U.S. Envoy Calls Hungary's Call For A Ukraine Cease-Fire ‘Cynical’.” - RFERL
“No fruit, ham a luxury: Hungary food prices spike most in EU.” - AP
“MEPs report concerns over academic freedom in Hungary.” - Science Business
Checking the pulse of the Russian anti-war movement
(Riddle)
“Contrary to the classic assumption that there is no protest activity in Russia, by April 2023 the human rights project OVD-Info had recorded more than 10,000 arrests for an anti-war stance, more than 6,000 cases initiated following the passing of the new «fakes law» that criminalizes «spreading fakes about the Russian army» and 500 criminal cases under 107 other articles of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation.”
—
“Authorities brand «extremist» any organizations seeking to participate in politics. … Finally, any unwanted organization can simply be liquidated by court order, as was the case with Memorial Society or the Moscow Helsinki Group. Yet in spite of all the risks associated with anti-war activities, there has been a surge in civic engagement among Russians inside and outside Russia.”
https://ridl.io/from-russia-with-peace/
- Putin’s Forever War -
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
25., 26., and 27. April
(ISW)
“Senior US and EU officials assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain unwilling to negotiate in response to a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive.”
—
“Russian ultranationalists are continuing to advocate for the Kremlin to adopt Stalinist repression measures.”
—
“Russia appears to be continuing a deliberate depopulation campaign in occupied areas of Ukraine in order to facilitate the repopulation of Ukrainian territories with Russians.”
—
“The Kremlin continues measures to codify conditions for domestic repression.”
—
“The Russian military command appears to be reshuffling the leadership of command organs associated with force generation, sustainment, and logistics.”
—
“Russian forces are reportedly using new tactics to complicate Ukrainian air defenses’ ability to detect Russian missiles.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-25-2023
—
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-26-2023
—
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-27-2023
“Vene sõjatööstuse kiire kasv üllatas analüütikuid.” - Postimees
“The ‘Angry Patriots’ Who Could Give Putin Problems.” - 19fortyfive
“Russian Businessmen Slam Putin, Ukraine Invasion in Leaked Call.” - Moscow Times
“Medvedev calls nuclear weapons the ‘backbone’ of the Russian state.” - Meduza
“Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’ Is a Bloody Fiasco.” - Mother Jones
“Russians Told to Man Up: The Meat Grinder of War Awaits.” - The Bulwark
“Will Russia’s new guided bombs give it an advantage in this war?” - Novaya Gazeta
Russia digs in as Ukraine prepares to attack
(Reuters | Moscow Times)
“Satellite images show vast Russian defences in Ukraine. … The anti-tank ditches near Ukraine's occupied southeastern town of Polohy stretch for 30 km (19 miles). Behind are rows of concrete "dragon's teeth" barricades. Further back are defensive trenches where Russia's troops will be positioned. The defences visible in satellite imagery taken by Capella Space are part of a vast network of Russian fortifications sweeping down from western Russia through eastern Ukraine and on to Crimea built in readiness for a major Ukrainian attack.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-digs-ukraine-prepares-attack-2023-04-27/
—
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/04/27/russia-digs-in-awaiting-ukraines-expected-offensive-a80970
“Ukraine more prepared for counterattack as reinforcements arrive in Kyiv.” - Euronews
“Ukraine’s Greatest Problem: Deadly Landmines Planted By Putin.” - 1945
Investigative report: Putin Made Decision To Invade Ukraine In March 2021
(RFERL)
“According to the report, which is based on interviews with sources close to the Russian leadership, Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine after Ukrainian authorities confiscated assets and media outlets controlled by Russia-friendly Ukrainian politician Viktor Medvedchuk in February 2021.”
—
“The preparations for the invasion, launched in late February 2022, took a year with Putin’s close associate, billionaire Yury Kovalchuk, the main supporter of the idea, the report quotes the sources as saying.”
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-putin-lanned-ukraine-invasion-march-2021-vyorstka/32379171.html
China doesn’t want peace in Ukraine, Czech president warns
(Politico Europe)
“China cannot be trusted to mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine, Czech President Petr Pavel is warning, telling POLITICO that Beijing benefits from prolonging the war. His comments come as China is trying to position itself as a peacemaker in Ukraine, recently floating a vague roadmap to ending the conflict.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/trust-china-ukraine-czech-republic-petr-pavel-nato-defense/
Russia’s new iron curtain
By Elisabeth Braw
(Politico Europe)
“The negative attitudes vis-à-vis the Baltic states, the U.S., the U.K., and similar countries (are) very strong,” he observed. “During Soviet times, there just wasn’t this high degree of venom. The discourse about the Soviet Union’s adversaries was much more civilized than what we hear now, and ad hominem attacks of the kind we see today on Russian television were completely [un]acceptable."
https://www.politico.eu/article/russias-new-iron-curtain/
“Lacking an Ideology, Putin Regime Increasingly Relies on Terror Alone But Can’t Do So for Long.” - Paul Goble
__________
_____
__
