Putin's plans to keep the Baltics in check
By Michael Weiss and Holger Roonemaa
(Yahoo News)
âYahoo News has obtained confidential strategy documents drawn up by the Kremlin that reveal Russiaâs ambitious plans to exert its influence in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Formerly annexed states of the Soviet Union, all three are now proud NATO and EU members with governments fiercely critical of Russiaâs foreign policy.â
â
âAmong other things, the documents show Moscowâs intention to thwart the construction of NATO military bases, weaken the local democratic governments, expand Russian cultural and linguistic influence and bolster pro-Kremlin political organizations. But in a running theme throughout the documents, which were drafted in 2021, Russiaâs subsequent invasion of Ukraine has undermined almost every aspect of the plans.â
â
âEstonia, our allies and partners have long been aware of Russiaâs interest to use hybrid tactics to pursue their goals and try to assert their influence in other countries,â Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told Yahoo News. âItâs Russiaâs classic playbook â many of their tactics are taken straight from the KGB.â
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âThe documents were drafted by the Russian Presidential Administrationâs Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation, which formulated similar plans, previously revealed by Yahoo News, for the creeping annexation of Belarus and the toppling of Moldovaâs pro-Western government.â
https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-putins-plans-to-keep-the-baltics-in-check-220033457.html
âRussia's secret strategy documents reveal plans involving Baltic states.â - Postimees
âRussia wants to restore its influence in Baltic states by 2030, strategy documents show.â - The New Voice of Ukraine
âRussia's Secret Plans for Baltic States Exposed.â - Newsweek
âHow Russia deploys Baltic Sea topics to influence European scientists.â - ERR
Eesti kohta lekkinud plaan annab aimu Kremli valearvestustest
(Postimees)
âKremlist lekkis jĂ€rjekordne kaalukas tĂ”end Venemaa plaanist nĂ”rgestada Balti riike, milleks sobivad idanaabrile nii valeinfo massiline levitamine, inimeste Ă€rakasutamine mĂ”jutustegevuses kui ka Eesti liitlaste ĂŒhtsuse lĂ”hkumine.â
â
âLekkinud dokumendid koostati Vene presidendi administratsiooni piiriĂŒlese koostöö valitsuses 2021. aasta suvel ja sĂŒgisel. Muu hulgas nĂ€itavad need Moskva kavatsust nurjata Baltimaades NATO sĂ”javĂ€ebaaside ehitamine, nĂ”rgestada kohalikke demokraatlikke valitsusi, laiendada Venemaa kultuurilist ja keelelist mĂ”ju ning tugevdada Kremli-meelseid poliitilisi organisatsioone, vahendas Yahoo News. Postimehega kĂ”nelenud rahvasaadikute jaoks kordasid Putin ja tema lĂ€hikondlased selle salaplaaniga vanu ideid ning meetodeid oma eesmĂ€rkide elluviimiseks, ent dokument andis taas ĂŒhe tĂ”endi, et Kremli mĂ”jutustegevus Eestis niipea ei lakka.â
https://www.postimees.ee/7762622/eesti-kohta-lekkinud-plaan-annab-aimu-kremli-valearvestustest
âVenemaa plaanib kasutada keskkonnateemasid Balti riikide mĂ”jutamiseks.â - ERR
EDF Colonel: Russia to form new units close to Estonian border by 2026
(EER)
âAs we know, Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu has come up with his program, which envisages a significant increase of forces in our region by 2026. This will probably start with the 25th and 138th brigades being transformed into divisions. We expect that the name change will happen first, as both brigades have been deployed to Ukraine for combat," EDFâs Col. Eero Rebo said.â
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âRussia's Western Military District will be divided into two. One part would remain in the direction of Moscow, covering the northern part of Belarus and Ukraine. There are also plans to create a separate military district in St. Petersburg, which would face Finland and the Baltic states. This structural change would allow the Putin regime to apply concrete military pressure on a larger scale.â
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â⊠there will be no significant increase in capabilities near Estonia's borders over the next six months," Rebo added.â
https://news.err.ee/1608962800/edf-colonel-russia-plans-to-form-new-units-close-to-estonian-border
âEstonia Transfers Its Newly Established Division To Multinational Corps Northeast.â - NATO press release
Kolonel Rebo: Venemaa asus Eesti piiride lÀhistel diviise taaslooma
(ERR)
âVenemaa on asunud nii Eesti piiride kui ka Soome piiride lĂ€histel suurendama armee isikkoosseisu ning formeerima uusi ĂŒksusi ⊠Nagu teada on siis Vene kaitseminister Ć oigu kĂ€is vĂ€lja oma programmi, mis siis 2026. aastaks nĂ€eb ette siin meie regioonis oluliselt jĂ”udude suurenemise. TĂ”enĂ€oliselt see saab alguse sellega, et 25. ja 138. brigaad muudetakse diviisideks. Me eeldame, et kĂ”igepealt toimub nimemuutus, sest mĂ”lemad brigaadid on rakendatud Ukrainasse lahingutesse.â
https://www.err.ee/1608962662/rebo-venemaa-asus-eesti-piiride-lahistel-diviise-taaslooma
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Cover drone photo: Ilmar R. - 7. aprill 2023
https://paranull.blogspot.com/2022/05/koluvere-loss.html
Koluvere Loss
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Friday 28. April
VĂ”rumaaâs Mari Kalkun announced her seventh album
âThe Stories of Stoniaâ
By Silver Tambur
(Estonian World)
â⊠which will be released on 7. July 2023 on Real World Records and is preceded by the single âTĂ”istmuuduâ (âOtherwiseâ).â
â
âOn the album Kalkun sings in VĂ”ro â the language of her native region of VĂ”rumaa (VĂ”ru County), which is estimated to have only 75,000 speakers. âVĂ”ro has very old layers of tradition that connect me to my ancestors,â she explained, adding that she sees VĂ”ro as a threatened âmicrocosmâ.
â
[Saw Ms. Kalkun perform during one of my trips to VÔrumaa. Wonderful singer / musician. - Aavo]
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Screenshot from Mari Kalkunâs video: âTĂ”istmuuduâ (Otherwise) |
Vene propagandist: âMis Eesti? Sellist riiki pole kunagi olemas olnudâ
(Postimees - subscription)
âVenemaa esipropagandist Vladimir Solovjov rÀÀkis kanalil Rossija 1 oma saates âĂhtu Vladimir Solovjovigaâ Eestist, LĂ€tist ja Leedust, sest alles hiljuti jĂ”udis avalikkusse info, mis plaan on Venemaal kolme Balti riigiga, et eelkĂ”ige suurendada neis oma mĂ”ju. Solovjovi vaatenurgast ei ole neid kolme riiki kunagi eksisteerinud.â
â
ââMis Eesti? Sellist riiki pole kunagi olemas olnud. TĂ€nu meile nimetavad nad end riikideks,â ĂŒtles Vene juhtivpropagandist Vladimir Solovjov.â
Russian propagandist: âWhat Estonia? Such a country never existedâ
âVladimir Solovyov, the leading propagandist of Russia, spoke about Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on his program "An Evening with Vladimir Solovyov" on channel Rossiya 1 ⊠it was only recently reported that the information about Russia's plan with the three Baltic countries, primarily to increase its influence in them, became public. From Solovyov's point of view, the 3 states never existed.â
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Western officials expressed confidence in Ukraineâs ability to conduct a successful counteroffensive
(ISW)
âNATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated on 27. April that NATO has trained and equipped more than nine new Ukrainian brigades, emphasizing that Ukrainian forces are in a âstrongâ position to retake captured territory in their upcoming counteroffensive. Stoltenberg also stated that NATO and its partners have delivered over 98 % of promised combat vehicles to Ukraine, totaling over 1,550 armored vehicles, 230 tanks, and other unspecified equipment.â
â
âUS European Command (EUCOM) Commander General Christopher Cavoli stated that the US has been working closely with Ukrainian forces to develop a counteroffensive plan, and developing techniques to surprise Russian forces.â
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-27-2023
âUkraine has almost all promised military vehicles, NATO claims.â - Washington Examiner
Russian propaganda surging on Twitter
(CBC)
âThe platform is no longer labelling state-controlled media and propaganda agencies, and will no longer prohibit their content from being automatically promoted or recommended to users. Together, the two changes, both made in recent weeks, have supercharged the Kremlin's ability to use the U.S.-based platform to spread lies and misleading claims about its invasion of Ukraine, U.S. politics and other topics.â
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/twitter-changes-russian-chinese-propaganda-1.6820779
Russia's Updated Foreign Policy Strategy is Revealingly Delusional and Dark
(The Moscow Times)
âRussia released its latest foreign-policy concept setting out its official view of the world, its major interests and goals, and how it will pursue them. It is Russiaâs sixth, and darkest, such statement, following those published in 1993, 2000, 2008, 2013, and 2016.â
Thursday 27. April
Arvamus: Eesti oma tuumajaam oleks vaenlasele magus sihtmÀrk
(Postimees)
[Estonia's own nuclear plant would be a sweet target for the enemy.]
https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7763064/udo-knaps-eesti-oma-tuumajaam-oleks-vaenlasele-magus-sihtmark
KaitsevĂ€e ĂŒksus suundus vĂ€lisoperatsioonile Iraaki
(ERR)
âKolmapĂ€eval siirdus Ămari lennubaasist vĂ€lisoperatsioonile Iraaki jalavĂ€eĂŒksus Estcoy-18, mis hakkab teenima Ameerika Ăhendriikide juhitud operatsioonil Inherent Resolve.â
https://www.err.ee/1608961877/kaitsevae-uksus-suundus-valisoperatsioonile-iraaki
Soome ja LÀti automaksu vÔrdlus: lÔpphind vÔib erineda kaks korda
(ERR)
âKui Eestis seni veel automaksu ei ole, siis nii pĂ”hja- kui lĂ”unanaabrite juures on see kehtestatud ning see teeb mĂ”nda tĂŒĂŒpi auto omandamise Soomes pea kaks korda kallimaks kui LĂ€tis.â
https://www.err.ee/1608960959/soome-ja-lati-automaksu-vordlus-lopphind-voib-erineda-kaks-korda
Rootsi: NATO nÔuded ja meie tegelik kaitsevajadus erinevad tÀiesti
(Postimees)
âRootsi kaitsekomisjon teatas relvastumist pĂ€rssivatest asjaoludest: personali, laskemoona ja rajatiste puudus, vahendab Dagens Nyheter. Rootsi parlament (Riksdag) mĂ€rgib vahearuandes Venemaa sissetungist Ukrainasse tekkinud erakorralisi asjaolusid. «See on vÀÀrtuslik julgeolekupoliitiline signaal,» ĂŒtles komisjoni esimees Hans Wallmark.â
No alternatives to raising taxes proposed
(BNN)
âEstonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has stated that the widespread criticism of tax increases is understandable, but no better solutions have been proposed.â
â
âThe new Estonian government has decided to increase personal income tax and VAT by two percent, and it will increase from 20% to 22%. Other taxes are expected to be raised as well and the government hopes that the new taxes that will be applied to cars will bring in 120 million euros per year to the state budget. It is expected that the excise tax on fuel will also be increased. The coalition has indicated that the tax changes are necessary to fight the large budget deficit of 1.7 billion euros, which is 4.3% of GDP.â
https://bnn-news.com/kallas-no-alternatives-to-raising-taxes-proposed-245291
âArvamus: Rahvuslikus mÔÔtkavas maksuhĂŒsteeria.â - Postimees
âDeadline for filing income tax returns in Estonia falls on 2. May.â - ERR
Russian invasion of Ukraine highlights national identity issues in Lithuania
(France24)
âWhile Russian imperialism fears are running high again in Lithuania, the response to security concerns has raised concerns over a backsliding on the country's cherished liberal values.â
US Air Force moves refueling mission from Germany to Poland
(Stars & Stripes | Radio Poland)
âUS Air Force Reserve and Air National Guard tankers that deploy to Europe will now operate primarily from Powidz Air Base in west-central Poland instead of Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany. ⊠in the coming months, 19 tanker units based stateside would be deployed to Powidz, with several planned operations to support NATO activities.â
https://www.stripes.com/branches/air_force/2023-04-24/tankers-poland-powidz-9902489.html
â
NATO Deterrence and Defense: Military Priorities for the Vilnius Summit
(Real Clear Defence)
âAt the North Atlantic Treaty Organizationâs July summit in Vilnius, the focus will necessarily be on support to Ukraine. But as NATOâs Strategic Concept makes clear, the Alliance also needs to respond to a broader set of challenges, with those arising from Russia particularly acute. This brief focuses on the conventional military threat from Russia, and sets forth six priority actions that NATO should undertake to enhance its deterrent and defense posture.â
âFront-line NATO allies worry they could be next.â - Insider, 23. April
"Estonia has announced that it will deny entry to Russian citizens who want to leave Russia to avoid being drafted into the army."- SchengenVisaInfo
âUngari vallandas relvajĂ”udude ĂŒlema.â - Postimees
Russian court demands Finland reopen Allegro train line
(Yle)
â⊠reinstating the Allegro train route between Helsinki and St. Petersburg.â
Wednesday 26. April
Kaja Kallas visits Ukraine
(Postimees | European Interest | Reuters)
â⊠received the Order of Prince Yaroslav the Wise, 2nd Class, from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and affirmed that Estonia believes in Ukraine's victory and future in the European Union and NATO.â
â
âThe Estonian Prime Minister emphasized that assistance with weapons, ammunition, and training for the Ukrainian military should continue on a sufficient scale to ensure that Ukraine wins this war.â
â
â
âEstonian Prime Minister met Ukrainian President in a town near Kyiv.â - The Sun - video
âEstonian PM Backs Kyiv's Bid For NATO, EU Membership.â - RFERL
âUkraine's Zelenskiy thanks Estonia for defense support.â - The Sun - video
âWhy NATO Must Admit Ukraine.â - Foreign Affairs
âBakhmut defenders worry about losing support.â - BBC
âThe Free World Must Stay the Course on Ukraine.â - Foreign Affairs
âPoland and Estonia too close to Russia to be neutral, says PM.â - First News
Estonia becomes 10th country to sign declaration of support for Ukraine's NATO membership
(Yahoo News)
â⊠in addition to Estonia, the first ten countries to officially support Ukraine's NATO membership include the Czech Republic, Belgium, Montenegro, Lithuania, Poland, Italy, Latvia, Iceland, and Slovenia, all of whom have signed similar declarations.â
https://news.yahoo.com/estonia-becomes-10th-country-sign-170100644.html
Baltics condemn China envoyâs stance on ex-Soviet nations
(Politico Europe | AP | Guardian)
âLu Shaye, Chinaâs ambassador to France, said that former Soviet countries have no âeffective statusâ in international law.â
â
â
âEstonian FM: Chinese diplomat's comments are false, misinterpret history.â - ERR
âThe three Baltic states have strongly condemned comments by Chinaâs envoy to France.â - Washington Post
âParis, Kyiv, Baltic states dismayed after China envoy questions Ukraine sovereignty.â - Reuters
Russia tracks visiting Finns via smartphone IMEI codes
(Yle)
âRussian authorities have demanded that visitors from Finland reveal their smartphones' IMEI codes as they crossed the border into Russia, according to individuals who spoke with Yle. The visitors said Russian border guards started interrogating visitors after Finland's accession to Nato at the beginning of April.â
â
âThe 15-digit IMEI codes are device-unique, allowing mobile phone service providers to identify individual devices on mobile phone networks. ⊠It's possible to track an individual if they record the phone owner's personal data and the IMEI code at the border and pair them to each other and then track the phone's movements.â
âIntelligence agents account for one third of Russian embassy staff in Helsinki.â - Yle
âFinland's election winner seeks coalition with far-right.â - Deutsche Welle
Russian ships pose threat in Nordic waters as spies take more risks
(Politico)
â⊠in intelligence gathering, Norwayâs prime minister has warned, just as Europeâs leaders turn their focus to the security of major maritime energy installations. The warning on Monday from Jonas Gahr StĂžre came on the same day nine European countries agreed to expand production of wind power in the North Sea, but also cautioned that they would need to take further steps to safeguard those facilities. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called security of energy assets âa question of high priority.â
âUS submarines will be allowed to make short stops in Iceland.â - Iceland Monitor
âUS nuclear-powered submarine stops in Iceland for first time.â - Stars & Stripes
Ukraine condemns Russian nuclear 'blackmail' on Chernobyl anniversary
(Reuters)
âUkraine marked the 37th anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster on Wednesday by urging the world not to bow to Russian "blackmail" over nuclear facilities it has seized during its invasion.â
âUkraine Holds Ceremonies Marking Anniversary Of Chernobyl.â - RFERL
Interview: Hungarian opposition MEP Katalin Cseh
(The Problem With Jon Stewart)
â⊠Viktor OrbĂĄn has been playing this double game for so long. ⊠actually he's making deals with shady dictators to our east. Ever since the war broke out, he is the only government leader in Europe that is openly speaking against joint European action. He is acting as a Trojan horse of Vladimir Putin at the European negotiating tables. His state media is spewing Russian propaganda. âŠâ
â
âBut we are not giving up in Hungary. We are fighting, and I think we also have to show to the world that we are not only the first to unleash this populist virus on Earth, but we has to be also the ones who are responsible for stopping that. We need to show the way for Hungarians to get a chance for a new leadership, a new way of doing politics, a new way to represent Hungary. Because I truly believe that Viktor OrbĂĄn does not represent the majority of our citizens here, because Hungarians are pro-European, they are pro-democracy. Hungarians want to live in a free environment.â
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9DPv7RX4QY
âU.S. Envoy Calls Hungary's Call For A Ukraine Cease-Fire âCynicalâ.â - RFERL
âNo fruit, ham a luxury: Hungary food prices spike most in EU.â - AP
âMEPs report concerns over academic freedom in Hungary.â - Science Business
Checking the pulse of the Russian anti-war movement
(Riddle)
âContrary to the classic assumption that there is no protest activity in Russia, by April 2023 the human rights project OVD-Info had recorded more than 10,000 arrests for an anti-war stance, more than 6,000 cases initiated following the passing of the new «fakes law» that criminalizes «spreading fakes about the Russian army» and 500 criminal cases under 107 other articles of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation.â
â
âAuthorities brand «extremist» any organizations seeking to participate in politics. ⊠Finally, any unwanted organization can simply be liquidated by court order, as was the case with Memorial Society or the Moscow Helsinki Group. Yet in spite of all the risks associated with anti-war activities, there has been a surge in civic engagement among Russians inside and outside Russia.â
https://ridl.io/from-russia-with-peace/
- Putinâs Forever War -
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
25., 26., and 27. April
(ISW)
âSenior US and EU officials assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain unwilling to negotiate in response to a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive.â
â
âRussian ultranationalists are continuing to advocate for the Kremlin to adopt Stalinist repression measures.â
â
âRussia appears to be continuing a deliberate depopulation campaign in occupied areas of Ukraine in order to facilitate the repopulation of Ukrainian territories with Russians.â
â
âThe Kremlin continues measures to codify conditions for domestic repression.â
â
âThe Russian military command appears to be reshuffling the leadership of command organs associated with force generation, sustainment, and logistics.â
â
âRussian forces are reportedly using new tactics to complicate Ukrainian air defensesâ ability to detect Russian missiles.â
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-25-2023
â
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-26-2023
â
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-27-2023
âVene sĂ”jatööstuse kiire kasv ĂŒllatas analĂŒĂŒtikuid.â - Postimees
âThe âAngry Patriotsâ Who Could Give Putin Problems.â - 19fortyfive
âRussian Businessmen Slam Putin, Ukraine Invasion in Leaked Call.â - Moscow Times
âMedvedev calls nuclear weapons the âbackboneâ of the Russian state.â - Meduza
âRussiaâs âSpecial Military Operationâ Is a Bloody Fiasco.â - Mother Jones
âRussians Told to Man Up: The Meat Grinder of War Awaits.â - The Bulwark
âWill Russiaâs new guided bombs give it an advantage in this war?â - Novaya Gazeta
Russia digs in as Ukraine prepares to attack
(Reuters | Moscow Times)
âSatellite images show vast Russian defences in Ukraine. ⊠The anti-tank ditches near Ukraine's occupied southeastern town of Polohy stretch for 30 km (19 miles). Behind are rows of concrete "dragon's teeth" barricades. Further back are defensive trenches where Russia's troops will be positioned. The defences visible in satellite imagery taken by Capella Space are part of a vast network of Russian fortifications sweeping down from western Russia through eastern Ukraine and on to Crimea built in readiness for a major Ukrainian attack.â
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-digs-ukraine-prepares-attack-2023-04-27/
â
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/04/27/russia-digs-in-awaiting-ukraines-expected-offensive-a80970
âUkraine more prepared for counterattack as reinforcements arrive in Kyiv.â - Euronews
âUkraineâs Greatest Problem: Deadly Landmines Planted By Putin.â - 1945
Investigative report: Putin Made Decision To Invade Ukraine In March 2021
(RFERL)
âAccording to the report, which is based on interviews with sources close to the Russian leadership, Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine after Ukrainian authorities confiscated assets and media outlets controlled by Russia-friendly Ukrainian politician Viktor Medvedchuk in February 2021.â
â
âThe preparations for the invasion, launched in late February 2022, took a year with Putinâs close associate, billionaire Yury Kovalchuk, the main supporter of the idea, the report quotes the sources as saying.â
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-putin-lanned-ukraine-invasion-march-2021-vyorstka/32379171.html
China doesnât want peace in Ukraine, Czech president warns
(Politico Europe)
âChina cannot be trusted to mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine, Czech President Petr Pavel is warning, telling POLITICO that Beijing benefits from prolonging the war. His comments come as China is trying to position itself as a peacemaker in Ukraine, recently floating a vague roadmap to ending the conflict.â
https://www.politico.eu/article/trust-china-ukraine-czech-republic-petr-pavel-nato-defense/
Russiaâs new iron curtain
By Elisabeth Braw
(Politico Europe)
âThe negative attitudes vis-Ă -vis the Baltic states, the U.S., the U.K., and similar countries (are) very strong,â he observed. âDuring Soviet times, there just wasnât this high degree of venom. The discourse about the Soviet Unionâs adversaries was much more civilized than what we hear now, and ad hominem attacks of the kind we see today on Russian television were completely [un]acceptable."
https://www.politico.eu/article/russias-new-iron-curtain/
âLacking an Ideology, Putin Regime Increasingly Relies on Terror Alone But Canât Do So for Long.â - Paul Goble
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