Ukraine worries about being left alone to deal with Russia, while US focuses on impeachment
(PRI)
“What is happening now, everybody focused on the United States and Ukraine and Ukrainian reputation, I would say, a bit undermined. That's why, if we are going to lose a friendship and support of United States, of course for Putin it would be the main victory. He is gaining a lot from this situation. I think like he sitting now in the Kremlin and drinking champagne when you have the scandal in United States and we don't know what will happen in the next days.” - Olena Sotnyk, a member of Ukraine's parliament until July.
Ukraine's Zelenskiy Gambles On Russia Peace Push Without U.S. Help
(NPR)
“When President Trump held his first meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the United Nations last month, one offhand remark by the U.S. president stood out to many Ukrainians.”
—
"I really hope that you and President Putin get together and can solve your problem. That would be a tremendous achievement. And I know you're trying to do that,” Trump had said.
—
“In just a couple of sentences, Trump dashed Ukrainian hopes of more active U.S. support in securing a durable peace with Moscow.”
Zelenski: pean Putiniga kohtuma, kuid esialgu Normandia formaadis
(ERR)
“Zelenski märkis, et tal on Normandia neliku liidrite kohtumise võimalikud kuupäevad, kuid kohtumise üle tuleb veel Saksamaa ja Prantsusmaaga läbi rääkida, kes need kooskõlastavad ja Venemaale välja pakuvad.”
Ukrainian opposition to “Steinmeier formula” capitulation is nationwide
by Paul Goble - Euromaidan
“While the protest in Kyiv not unexpectedly attracted the most attention, the fact that Ukrainians came out in more than 30 cities across their country may be more important. On the one hand, and in sharp contrast to Russian protests, it shows that protests in Ukraine can “go national” very fast.”
“Moscow commentator: Kremlin believes Ukraine is about to surrender.” - Paul Goble, 5. October 2019
“A Formula For Extortion.” - Brian Whitmore, CEPA
Is Putin winning the war in Ukraine?
(The Spectator)
“The ‘Steinmeier Formula’ may bring peace to Ukraine but it will be at the cost of the country’s sovereignty for years to come. The assurances needed for the formula to work in Ukraine’s favour are impossible to achieve: in the separatist-held areas elections can never be truly ‘free’ because for the past five years being vocally pro-Ukrainian could lead to you being tied up in a basement.”
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“When you watch the coverage on Russian state TV, the aims of the Kremlin are laid bare. ‘This is a chance to create a new, more viable model for the Ukrainian state: a federative Ukraine,’ says the propaganda peddler Dmitry Kiselyov on his weekly two-hour spin show on Sunday night. The modern Ukraine that emerged in 1991 was apparently not ‘viable’ in the first place. And now – after five years of war, Crimea seized and 13,000 dead – Russia finally has a chance to finish the job and ‘fix’ Ukraine by legitimising its bandit proxies in the east of the country.”
Zelensky’s Acceptance of Steinmeier Plan has Two Possible Consequences, Both Disastrous for Ukraine
by Paul Goble - Window on Eurasia
“… the first possible scenario will include “the conduct of imitations of elections in the region under the sound of automatic weapons fire from Russian forces and local separatists under the complete control of the occupation administration”
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“The second scenario … Ukrainian officials will supervise the elections and will try to cleanse the Donbass from the armed formations of pro-Russian forces. But they will hardly be successful since local separatists and even Russian soldiers will easily hide among the peaceful residents.”
President Zelenskyy is deceiving himself and Ukrainian people
(Euromaidan)
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should understand that he is not a great operator who tomorrow will deceive Putin and everyone else, but just a target of a seasoned KGB officer who is using his own ego to destroy Ukraine.”
Russia Entraps Ukraine’s President in the Steinmeier Formula
(Jamestown Org.)
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has yielded to Russia in accepting the Steinmeier Formula, a procedure for implementing the Minsk “accords” on Russian-defined terms … Ukraine had resisted this formula ever since 2015, when Germany’s then–minister of foreign affairs, Frank-Walter Steinmeier (currently head of state), proposed it and Russia embraced it. Zelenskyy has now accepted it in hopes of inducing Russian President Vladimir Putin to “end the war” in short order.”
Ukrainian protesters accused Zelenskiy of surrendering to Russia
(Deutsche Welle | Euromaidan Press)
“Thousands of protesters rallied in the capital of Ukraine on Sunday to protest President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's plan to allow local elections to take place in the separatist east. Zelenskiy said the step was needed to revive stalled peace talks on the contested region, which has been plagued by five years of violent conflict between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian government troops. But protesters slammed the president's plan as a concession to Russia.
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In Kyiv, the rally gathered some 10,000 people, making it arguably the largest protest since the times of the Euromaidan Revolution of 2013-2014.”
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Ukraine's Frontline Children
(RFERL)
“Psychologist Lyudmyla Romanenko says the conflict has left children in the region and their parents emotionally “frozen." Romanenko says this is a classic sign of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), which comes from being overwhelmed by deep psychological trauma. More than 13,000 people have been killed in eastern Ukraine since 2014, when fighting broke out between government forces and Russia-backed separatists. Parents in Popasna say they struggle to give their children love, warmth, and a sense of security. …”
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Friday 11. October
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Eestisse saabus NATO miinitõrjegrupp
(Postimees | ERR)
“… mis peatub nädalavahetusel Tallinna sadamates ja alustab esmaspäeval koos Eesti mereväega ligi kaks nädalat kestvat miinitõrjeoperatsiooni Eesti vetes.”
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Naftaajastu lõpp tabas Tallinna Sadamat ootamatult
(Ärileht)
“Kolmandas kvartalis lausa dramaatiliselt naftatoodete transiiti kaotanud Tallinna Sadam loodab kaubavedude mahu teiste artiklite abil praegusel tasemel säilitada.”
https://arileht.delfi.ee/news/uudised/naftaajastu-lopp-tabas-tallinna-sadamat-ootamatult?id=87721295
Estonia Casts Doubts Over World’s Longest Undersea Rail Tunnel
(Bloomberg)
“While Estonia “supports the idea of a Tallinn-Helsinki tunnel that would be connected to the future Rail Baltic railway,” doubts linger over the estimated passenger and freight numbers, the government said. In addition, the project’s tight timetable is “not feasible.”
EU citizens without UK settled status to be deported due to Brexit
(Euronews)
“EU citizens in the UK have until the end of 2020 to register for settled status — which will grant them the same rights they currently enjoy — in the event Britain crashed out of the bloc without a deal. If an agreement is found, they will have until June 30, 2021.”
More than 5,000 Estonians apply to stay in UK after Brexit
(ERR)
“… in total, 5,300 Estonians have applied for the scheme, 1,300 of those applications were made in the month of September.”
5,300 eestlast on esitanud taotluse jääda pärast Brexitit Ühendkuningriiki
(ERR)
“Ei ole täpselt teada, kui palju Eesti kodanikke kokku Ãœhendkuningriigis elab ning kui paljusid mõjutab viisavaba liikumise lõppemine. Eesti võimude andmeil elab Ãœhendkuningriigi umbes 15 000 eestlast, kuid nende seas võivad olla ka topeltkodakondsusega inimesed või need, kellel juba on alaline elamisluba.”
The Breakaways: A Retrospective On The Baltic Road To NATO
(War on the Rocks)
“In 2001, during a radio interview with National Public Radio, when asked if he opposed the admission of the three Baltic Republics into NATO Russian President Vladimir Putin responded that the issue could not be summed up in “a yes or a no.” He later added that “we cannot forbid people to make certain choices if they want to increase the security of their nations in a particular way.” In another appearance, Putin declared that Baltic membership was “no tragedy” for Russia. These statements clearly were not a ringing endorsement. However, by historical standards, this was the least public resistance put up by the head of the Russian state. Alexander Vershbow, U.S. Ambassador to Moscow at a time of NATO enlargement, insists that he heard few complaints from the Russian side when the Baltics formally joined the alliance.”
Transcript: A 2001 NPR interview with Vladimir Putin
(NPR)
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Thursday 10. October
__________
Government does not have data on how many Estonians live abroad
(ERR)
“… and recently closed an office which kept these records.”
Kremli meedia nimetas Tallinna TV sulgemist russofoobiaks
(Propastop)
“1. oktoobril pandi Tallinna linnapea Mihhail Kõlvarti otsusega kinni Tallinna televisioon (TTV). Sulgemise põhjuseks on kanali suured kulud ja madalad reitingud, aastas neelas kanal 4,5 mln eurot linna raha ja selle vaatamisaja osakaal Kantar Emori andmetel augustis 2019 oli 1,3%.”
Kremlin media called the closing of Tallinn TV Russophobic
“On October 1, Tallinn television (TTV) was closed by decision of the Mayor of Tallinn, Mikhail Kõlvart. The closure was due to the channel’s high costs and low ratings, with the city absorbing 4.5 million € in costs per year with according to Kantar Emor’s analysis only a share of viewers in August 2019 of 1.3%.”
The Growing Importance of Belarus on NATO’s Baltic Flank
(Jamestown Org. - PDF)
“A variety of strategic issues explain why Belarus matters to NATO and more specifically to the United States. First and foremost, Belarus is a strategically important neighbor of Ukraine due to its unique geography bordering Russia and several NATO member states in the Baltic. The Russian annexation of Crimea in February 2014 and the invasion of eastern Ukraine in August 2014 has dramatically altered how Belarus and Russia interact with one another.”
Brexit could end up costing Estonian businesses
(Postimees)
“The Tax and Customs Board urges Estonian companies to prepare for a hard Brexit that would bring customs fees and new certificates.”
Middle Powers to the Rescue?
(SAIS Review)
“For seven decades, the United States has prided itself in being a reliable and committed NATO partner, willing to protect all allies at all times. Today such assurances no longer appear rock-solid. … But just as the United States sows doubt about its international treaty obligations, middle powers such as Canada, Germany, and the United Kingdom have banded together to bolster NATO’s eastern flank.”
—
“History tells us that one need not be a major power to play a positive role in the Baltics. … it was Canada and not the United States that first dared to officially accept Baltic declarations of independence. America ended up being 34th on this list.”
As Donald Trump undermines NATO, what can Canada do?
(Macleans - June 2018)
“Everything hinges on Trump getting around to deciding whose side he’s on, and it’s in the Baltic States and Poland that NATO’s future hangs in the balance. … It’s as though history is marching backwards, with Putin leading the way. Putin has been explicitly nostalgic about the days of the Soviet Union, and has gone so far as to defend the Molotov-Ribbentrop alliance between Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia.”
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Wednesday 9. October
__________
Estonia will not accept asylum seekers from Ukraine: Helme
(UNIAN | Postimees)
“Estonian Interior Minister Mart Helme has said Estonia will not accept asylum seekers, as the country has enough problems with immigrants coming from Ukraine. At a meeting of interior ministers in Luxembourg on Tuesday, he said Estonia was currently facing very strong immigration pressure from former Soviet Union countries …”
—
Estonia and Czech Republic most competitive economies in emerging Europe
(Emerging Europe)
“… both countries scored 70.9/100, placing them 31st and 32nd on a global list of 141 economies.”
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu: Russia's Next Leader?
by Mark Galeotti - Moscow Times
“For the first time in his seven years as Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu gave a lengthy interview to a mainstream Russian newspaper. We should pay attention.”
Defence Minister Shoigu Sells Russia’s Military ‘Success Story’
by Kalev Stoicescu - ICDS
“On 22 September 2019, the Russian newspaper “Moskovskij Komsomolets” (MK) published an unprecedented interview with Sergei Shoigu in what was his first public discussion in the seven years since he became Russia’s Minister of Defence. This interview clearly signified that the Kremlin needs to actively sell – both at home and abroad – the self-proclaimed success story of Russia’s military reforms and modernization efforts. By painting the picture of a state-of-the art military, the Kremlin is attempting to convince Russian taxpayers and pensioners that the country’s enormous defence (and security) budget is money well spent on cutting-edge military technology and weapons.”
Russian cyber criminals offer fake news campaigns to companies worldwide
(.coda)
“As governments across the world battle massive disinformation campaigns on social media and elsewhere, cyber criminals seem to have discovered that there’s quite a lot of money to be made in the corporate world as well.”
—
“Recorded Future’s Insikt Group research team found that Russian-speaking groups are advertising their disinformation campaigns services across Eastern Europe …”
Magazine aimed at MEPs 'filled with pro-Russia content'
(The Guardian | Deutsche Welle)
“The online magazine claims to have staff operating in Brussels but the taskforce found it only had a mailbox address and none of its editors were on LinkedIn or Twitter. The site’s four Facebook page administrators are said to be situated in India.”
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Poland’s Democracy Is in Danger
(The Atlantic)
“The country’s upcoming elections are crucial. And the United States is on the wrong side of the fight.”
Belarus Remains ‘at Greatest Risk’ of Russian Annexation
(Window on Eurasia)
“It isn’t a member of NATO or another military alliance and it lacks its own effective defense. Moreover, the question arises as to what NATO would do or whether it would do anything if Belarus were subject to attack and annexation. Moscow could likely achieve its goal by decapitating the regime in Minsk. … The system would be open for destruction and occupation.”
__________
Tuesday 8. October
__________
Claim: Top Secret Russian Unit Seeks to Destabilize Europe
(New York Times)
“The purpose of Unit 29155, which has not been previously reported, underscores the degree to which the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, is actively fighting the West with his brand of so-called hybrid warfare — a blend of propaganda, hacking attacks and disinformation — as well as open military confrontation.”
—
“I think we had forgotten how organically ruthless the Russians could be,” said Peter Zwack, a retired military intelligence officer and former defense attaché at the United States Embassy in Moscow, who said he was not aware of the unit’s existence.”
—
“That kind of intelligence operation has become part of the psychological warfare,” said Eerik-Niiles Kross, a former intelligence chief in Estonia. “It’s not that they have become that much more aggressive. They want to be felt. It’s part of the game.”
New IEA policy review offers recommendations for Estonia’s energy transition
(Modern Diplomacy)
“Estonia is on the brink of a major energy transition that will involve a substantial change in the role of domestically produced oil shale in its energy mix … The expected synchronisation of the Baltic electricity grid with the continental European grid by 2025 will further increase Estonia’s security of electricity supply.”
Valitsus valmistub suureks elektrikatkestuseks
(ERR)
"Sel sügisel on plaanis valitsuse tasandil läbi mängida lauaõppus, kuidas tagada kriitiliste teenuste, nagu side, vedelkütus, ravimid ja toidukaubad, tagamine suure elektrikatkestuse olukorras," ütles peaminister Jüri Ratas 2. oktoobril kõrgemate riigikaitsekursuste riigikaitsekonverentsil.”
Political discussions failed to rally Lithuanian neighbours against Belarusian nuclear plant
(LRT)
“The Lithuanian government says Belarus is building the nuclear facility close to its border in violation of safety standards and has called for blocking power imports from the power plant.”
US vows to help protect Baltics' energy infrastructure from cyber attacks
(Baltic Times)
“… as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia prepare to disconnect their power networks from the post-Soviet system and synchronize them with those of Western Europe. A joint declaration, signed on Sunday in Vilnius by US Energy Secretary Rick Perry and his Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian counterparts, states that the US might provide strategic and technical assistance.”
—
“The declaration acknowledges "a critical moment for the Baltic States in strengthening cybersecurity in strategic Baltic energy infrastructure".
European Commission’s next leaders take tough tone on China
(South China Morning Post)
“Chinese investments in Europe among the matters set to come under greater scrutiny when new executive takes over in November.”
Arvamus: Miks on Hiina investeeringud ohtlikud?
(Postimees)
“Hiina ütleb vaesematele riikidele, et on valmis rahastama nende suuri infrastruktuuriprojekte, olgu selleks siis sild, sadam, tunnel. Riigi valitsus seob end käsist ja jalust, et Hiina antud laenu tagasi maksta.”
Why Is Eastern Europe Silent On China?
by Edward Lucas - CEPA
“We know about a million people in mind-control camps. The extermination of ancient cultures, languages, and religions. The kidnapping of children. Mass population control backed by a new system of high-tech surveillance that makes the Telescreen of George Orwell’s novel 1984 seem like a mild intrusion. We know about it all. … Yet we keep silent.”
Are Chinese tech companies bluffing their way into the EU?
(Vox Europe)
“Awash in cash, drowning in data and state-sponsored, Chinese players may benefit, moreover, from our own gullibility …”
Lithuania must take Chinese threat as seriously as Russia's
(LRT)
“When a Hong Kong support rally in Vilnius came up against a coordinated Chinese counter-demonstration, Lithuanians became aware of Beijing's soft power reach in the country. … the Chinese Embassy was involved …”
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Monday 7. October
__________
With Gazprom’s Nord Stream 2, Putin Is Getting Ready to Put the Screws on Europe
(Foreign Policy)
“The new pipeline won’t deliver energy security. It will make the EU more dependent on a capricious Russia.”
Nord Stream 2 will increase Russia's influence on EU foreign policy
(Baltic Times)
Opinion: Dear President Niinistö
(Helsinki Times)
“With all due respect, Your press conference with the president of the United States was perplexing, to say the least. First, you shouldn’t have been there at all. … But once you were there, you had an excellent opportunity to promote Finland in front of the world. Instead, you became an extra in a Trump reality TV episode and a sidekick in an internal dispute of a president dragging himself and his country through the mire. …”
20,000 US Troops to Go to Europe for 2020 Training Exercise
(VOA)
“U.S. European Command said Monday the "Defender Europe 20" exercise from April to May 2020 will support NATO objectives "to build readiness within the alliance and deter potential adversaries." Eighteen countries are expected to take part in exercises across 10 countries, including Germany, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Georgia.”
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