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26 November, 2021

 


Raekoja platsi turg sÀrab taas jÔulutuledes - fotod
(Postimees)





Foto: Madis Veltman | Postimees | 26. Nov. 2021


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This week’s cover: Christmas đŸŽ„
postage stamps from the Baltic Sea region
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Friday 26. Nov.


Maa-amet avaldas uued suure detailsusega aerofotod
(ERR)
“2021. aastal toimunud pildistuste ortofotode puhul on tegu töödeldud aerofotodega, mis kajastavad looduses esinenud olukorda ĂŒlelennu hetkel. Ortofotode aluseks olevat aeropildistamist tehakse igal aastal poole Eestimaa kaupa – kordamööda Eesti pĂ”hja- ja lĂ”unapoolne osa.”





SeaduseelnÔu annaks loa mere- ja jÀrveÀÀred maju tÀis ehitada
Ülle Harju, Postimees
“Riigikogulased sepistavad keskkonnaministriks tĂ”usnud Erki Savisaare eestvĂ”ttel seadust, mille jĂ”ustudes vĂ”ib hooneid rajada peaaegu veepiirile ja vÔÔraid randa vĂ€hem lubada, vĂ€ites, et loodusvÀÀrtused ohus pole. Looduskaitsjad on teist meelt.”



Terviseamet soovitab kÔigil reisijatel Eestisse saabumisel end PCR-testida
(ERR)
“Ameti peadirektori kohusetĂ€itja Mari-Anne HĂ€rma andis reedel korralduse, et kĂ”ik Eestisse naasvad Eesti elanikud saavad minna tasuta testima. PCR test on tasuta olenemata sellest, kas saabutakse riskiriigist vĂ”i asukohast, kus nakatumise tase on madal. Alates reedest on kĂ”igile reisijatele tasuta testimisvĂ”imalus tagatud sellepĂ€rast, et LĂ”una-Aafrika Vabariigis on tuvastatud uus koroonaviiruse variant B.1.1.529.”







Estonia experienced coronavirus wave ahead of other European countries
(ERR)
“Estonia reached the peak of its latest coronavirus wave much faster, the acting director general of the Health Board has said. 
 The pattern is quite similar. In Estonia, it started in the same way. Young people got sick - young unvaccinated people spread the virus and then it spread quietly, reaching parents. Then the need for hospital treatment gradually increased 
”








How will the Omicron coronavirus variant affect Europe this winter?
(Politico-Europe)
“The variant has already spread to Europe, with one case detected in Belgium.”
—
“The Omicron variant, also known as B.1.1.529, contains around 50 mutations, an unusually large number. More than 30 of these are in the spike protein, the part of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that interacts with human cells prior to cell entry — and the part most vaccines target. While several of those mutations have been observed in earlier variants of concern, “some of those mutations have rarely been observed together in the same strain before,” said Francois Balloux, director of University College London’s Genetics Institute.”



Estonia’s temporary ban on aerial activity on its eastern border to end
(Foreign Brief)
“The restrictions (were) aimed to facilitate Police and Border Guard Board and Estonian Defense Force activities amidst the ongoing migrant crisis on the Belarus-EU borders.”



Poola migrandikriis on algatanud ka Soomes idapiiri kindlustamise arutelu
(ERR)
“Soome ja Venemaa vaheline piir on umbes 1300 kilomeetrit pikk, ainuke fĂŒĂŒsiline tĂ”ke on seal praegu koduloomade ohjamiseks mĂ”eldud ĂŒhekordne traat. 2015. aastal ĂŒletas Soome riigipiiri rohkem kui 32 000 varjupaigataotlejat. 
”



Lithuania looks at taking legal action against Lukashenko
(LRT)
“In a statement to EU and NATO leaders issued a couple of weeks ago, chairpersons of parliamentary committees of Lithuania and 16 other European countries called for initiating an international court process against Lukashenko. They suggested taking Belarus to the International Court of Justice for alleged violations by the Minsk regime of international conventions against torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment.”



Ukraine PM Denys Shmyhal calls for NATO’s help against Russia
(Politico-Europe)
“Ensuring the constant presence of maritime warships of the NATO alliance in the Black Sea would be a very strong signal,” Shmyhal said in an interview with POLITICO by videoconference from his office in Kyiv. “In the same way, a very strong signal would be the increase of intelligence and reconnaissance flights across the Russian border, in particular in the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea,” he said.”
—
“Shmyhal’s request echoed proposals put forward by Polish President Andrzej Duda during a meeting with Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Thursday. Duda also called for an increased deployment of allied troops in Poland and the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.”





Claim: Ukraine uncovered a Russian-linked December coup plot
(The Guardian)
“Speaking at an hours-long press conference, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukrainian intelligence had obtained audio recordings of the plotters discussing their plans, which he said involved tying to enlist the support of Ukraine’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov. “We have challenges not only from the Russian Federation and possible escalation – we have big internal challenges. I received information that a coup d’etat will take place in our country on December 1-2.”










Thursday 25. Nov.


Euroopal seisab ees rÀnkraske talv
(Diplomaatia)
“Euroopa on ĂŒha tugevama idakaarest lĂ€htuva surve all. Kui Valgevene diktaator Aljaksandr LukaĆĄenka oli suve jooksul katsetanud rĂ€ndevoogude paiskamist relvana Leedu ja LĂ€ti piirile, siis nĂŒĂŒd on ta kogunud piisavalt „inimlaskemoona“, et saata mitte enam sadu, vaid lausa tuhandeid inimesi Euroopa Liidu piiridest lĂ€bi murdma. KuĆșnica Poola piiril oli kĂ”igest esimene suur katsetus, millele kindlasti jĂ€rgneb palju teisi, et survestada Euroopa Liitu möönma Minski reĆŸiimi legitiimsust.”



Riigikaitsekomisjon tegi ettepaneku keskmaa ÔhutÔrje loomiseks
(Postimees)
“Komisjon mĂ€rkis valitsusele saadetud kirjas, et tunnustab valitsuse jĂ”upingutusi kaitsekulutuste suurendamisel. Need tĂ”usevad jĂ€rgmisel aastal 749,6 miljoni euroni ja moodustavad 2,31 protsenti SKTst. Samas vĂ€ljendasid riigikaitsekomisjoni liikmed seisukohta, et kujunenud julgeolekuolukorras on vĂ€ltimatu kaitsekulude edasine kasvatamine nii absoluutmahus kui ka protsendina sisemajanduse kogutoodangust. 2020. aasta 16. septembril leidis riigikaitsekomisjon oma avalduses, et vajadusel tuleb kaitsevĂ”ime edasiarendamiseks teha struktuurseid muutusi ja olemasolevaid vĂ”imelĂŒnki vĂ€hendada ka laenu abil.”



Polish PM in Estonia: ‘We are facing a new form of war’
(ERR)
“Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform) met with her Polish counterpart Mateusz Morawiecki during the premier's short Estonia visit on Sunday. Morawiecki said at a joint press conference that there is a new form of war taking place on the eastern border of the European Union where migrants and misinformation are used as weapons.”



Construction of Estonian border had been delayed by several governments
(ERR)
“Discussions about building the border became prominent after the abduction of KAPO officer Eston Kohver by Russian counterintelligence on the south-eastern border of Estonia in 2014. This raised concerns that there was no barrier. At the time, Minister of the Interior Hanno Pevkur (Reform) promised to build a permanent border by Estonia's 100th birthday in 2018. 
 The Center-Isamaa-Social Democrats (2016-2019) agreed to build the €190 million wall in full in 2016. But the Center-EKRE-Isamaa coalition (2019-2021) which followed reduced its scale. EKRE, which held the position of minister of interior, knocked €57 million off the budget by reducing its scope. 
”





How to Survive Winter, Confound Putin and Save Ukraine
By Kurt Volker, CEPA
“Russian President Vladimir Putin is engaged in a multi-pronged escalation of threats within Europe. His schemes can be defeated.”
—
“The timing of Russia’s moves is auspicious: December 8, 2021, marks the 30th anniversary of the collapse of the Soviet Union, something Putin has lamented as the greatest tragedy of the 20thCentury. It also comes as Chancellor Angela Merkel hands power to an SPD-led government in Germany, while Russia seeks to clear the final hurdles to bring the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline online. 
”



Conventional Wars have Fallen Out of Fashion. Grey-zone Aggression is In
By Elisabeth Braw, ICDS
“For the past few years, aggression in the grey zone between war and peace has been growing steadily, and the aggressor side has an enormous advantage: it can keep innovating. If targeted countries focus on trying to counter or predict each form of aggression, they will always be on the back foot. Instead, they should build societal resilience – and signal that they will also punish aggressive acts. 
”





Refugee crisis is ‘the dictator’s last game’
(Voxeurop)
[Video interview with Lithuanian writer Marius Ivaơkevičius.]










Wednesday 24. Nov.


Interview: JĂŒri Luik, Estonia’s permanent representative to NATO
(Defense News)
“While Estonia has not been directly attacked so far, it’s important for us to be as well prepared as possible. An important part of those snap exercises was the ability to use our army — and the armed forces in general — to erect barriers on the border because if this kind of hybrid attack starts, then it might already be too late.”






Kallas: Europe must make clear Russia will pay high price for Ukraine action
(Reuters)
“She said there was a narrow window for the EU and the United States to agree on a common deterrent because the migrant crisis on the Belarus-Polish border, Germany's current lack of a government and France's approach to a presidential election could be the "perfect storm" for Russian President Vladimir Putin to test the EU's resolve.”



Opinion: No, Putin Isn’t Trying to Bring Down the West
By Kadri Liik, New York Times
“In yesterday’s world, dominated by the West, things were different. Set against a single antagonist, Russia knew what it wanted to achieve and how to set its goals. All ideas of joining the West or bringing it down belonged there, in the period from the end of World War II to, say, the rise of Xi Jinping in China, Donald Trump’s presidency and Brexit. But for Russia now, the world truly feels “multipolar.” And it’s not very enjoyable. The new world is so chaotic that Moscow appears to consider almost any long-term planning futile. 
”





A Russian Invasion Of Ukraine: 
Hype Or Horror?
(19fortyfive)
“Rumors are flying once again that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine. The latest flurry of concern intensified when Brig. General Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s director of defense intelligence, asserted in a November 20, 2021, interview with Military Times that Moscow already had plans in place to launch an invasion by the end of January 2022. He was not talking about a modest border incursion either. Such an attack would likely involve airstrikes, artillery, and armor attacks followed by airborne assaults in the east, amphibious assaults in Odesa and Mariupol, and a smaller incursion through neighboring Belarus, Budanov insisted.”












A Close Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli
A Scenario in the Baltics
(War On The Rocks)
“There are serious logistic challenges with large-scale fait accompli operations in the Baltics. Small scale fait accompli operations are feasible with small forces without a logistical challenge but on a large scale are far more challenging. Fait accompli requires Russian forces to overrun Baltic states and eliminate resistance in less than 96 hours, before NATO’s Very High Readiness Task Force can reinforce the defenders. This force won’t stop a Russian attack, but it commits NATO to a land war, negating the very purpose of fait accompli.”
—
“Logistics are the key stumbling block in the fait accompli timeline. The railroad is wide gauge and usable, but the timeline is too short for captured railheads to be put back into operation. A dozen NATO air-launched cruise missiles fired over Germany can destroy key rail bridges at Narva, Pskov, and Velikie Lugi, shutting down rail traffic into the Baltics for days until those bridges are repaired. Logistic planners in Russian Western Command have to plan for a scenario in which Baltic states choose to fight a battle in their capital. Historically, urban combat consumes massive amounts of ammunition and takes months to conclude. 
”


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