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15 March, 2019




  • Estonia Prime Minister Juri Ratas invited EKRE to coalition talks on Monday, reversing a promise to block the anti-immigrant party from the cabinet 

(See ‘Eesti poliitika’ news list)

  • “KĂ”igis Eesti-lĂ€hedastes FSB signaalluurejaamades töötavad eesti keelt oskavad inimesed.”

  • “More Estonians are leaving Finland - and Finns are increasingly moving to Estonia. The trend started about two years ago.”

  • The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service released their annual report ‘International Security and Estonia 2019’


  • “Vene ajaloolaste seas on metsavendade kohta erinevad arvamused.”


______

PÔlvas arutatakse ristipuude tÀhendust ja hoidmist
(LÔuna Leht)
“Eesti traditsioonilise matusekombestiku ĂŒks rituaale on risti puusse lĂ”ikamine lahkunu viimsel teekonnal kodust surnuaeda.“

“Marju KĂ”ivupuu: kergliiklustee ohustab Rosma ristimetsa.”

“Osa suuri ristipuid on vĂ”etud varasematel aegadel looduskaitse alla, aga suure osa ristimetsade sĂ€ilimine sĂ”ltub maaomanike heast tahtest. Et sĂ€ilinud ristimetsi ja -puid hoida, on Muinsuskaitseamet algatanud nende kaitse alla vĂ”tmise.”


The Tree Crosses of Rosma Forest
(Atlas Obscura)
“The forest near the cemetery of Rosma village has around 200 such trees 
 on the way to the cemetery, the funeral procession stops at a certain tree, and 
 cuts the cross into the bark.”
______





Friday 
15. March


Russia’s Next Land Grab Won’t Be in an Ex-Soviet State. It Will Be in Europe
by Mikheil Saakashvili - Foreign Policy
“Russia’s most likely target in the near future is either Finland or Sweden; although both are members of the EU, they are not members of NATO.  
 I do not expect Russian tanks to roll into Helsinki or Stockholm unopposed. But it would be relatively simple for Moscow to execute a land grab in a remote Arctic enclave or on a small island, like Sweden’s Gotland, considering the strategic capabilities Russia has built on its northern flank. After all, who would go to war over a frozen Baltic island or piece of Finland’s tundra? NATO wouldn’t, but Putin would—because the stakes are higher for him.”



Putin, His Position Shaky, May Begin New Aggression with Nuclear Threats
by Paul Goble - Window on Eurasia
“Russia is not in a position to engage in an arms race with the United States, Andrey Piontkovsky says; but Vladimir Putin does have “a plan for victory.” 
 In the event of a clash between Russian and NATO forces or a Russian invasion of the Baltic countries, the Russian commentator says, Putin plans to say that “’either you retreat and admit defeat or I will use nuclear weapons.’” This is the advantage any “bandit” has, Piontkovsky continues.”

“Moscow Plans to Have More than a Million Youths in Its Young Army within a Year.”



Russia is sending two distinct messages to Finland
(Helsinki Times)
“First, that Russia values its neighbourly and well-functioning relationship with Finland. Second, that Finland should not take the positive relationship for granted and should take its neighbour’s interests into consideration in political decision-making.”

“Voiman VenĂ€jĂ€ - Over 40 Russia experts contributed to the report published in Finnish by the Ministry of Defence on Tuesday, 12 March.”


Sweden: Northern Wind 2019 Winter Exercise
(Swedish Army)
“Finland will participate in the exercise Northern Wind 2019 (NW19) organised by the Swedish Army in Norrbotten, Northern Sweden, from 18 to 27 March 2019. Altogether over 1,500 soldiers and 500 vehicles will partake in the exercise from Finland. A planned part of the development of defence cooperation between Finland and Sweden, Northern Wind 2019 will be the most substantial exercise conducted between the armies so far.”



✔ VĂ”ltsuudiste maailmas: kuidas need tekivad ja kuidas end nende eest kaitsta?
Jaanika KÀÀrst, Tartu Ülikooli 
(Delfi - 25. veebruar)
“Kogu ĂŒhiskonnas, eriti aga uudistetööstuses on valeuudiste avastamine muutunud keskseks aruteluks, sest pidev vĂ”ltsuudiste levitamine on kutsunud esile vajaduse hinnata pidevalt digitaalse infosisu Ă”igsust.”



Vene ajaloolaste seas on metsavendade kohta erinevad arvamused
(ERR)
“Moskvas esitleti arhiividokumentide kogumikku, mis kĂ€sitleb vastupanuvĂ”itlust Baltimaades Teise maailmasĂ”ja ajal ja jĂ€rel. Kogumiku autorid mĂ”istsid hukka ka metsavendade tegevuse, kuigi Vene ajaloolaste seas on sel teemal vastakaid hinnanguid.”



Head of Danske Bank’s Estonian Branch Speaks
(OCCRP)
“
 said that he “feels responsible” for the scandal that befell the branch in the wake of the 2017 revelations that many of the transactions worth 200 billion euros (US $226 billion) were suspicious, but that he did nothing wrong.”

As Europe worries about Trump, congressional leaders invite NATO head for joint address
(Washington Post)
“McConnell and Pelosi held quiet talks about the idea of an invitation to Jens Stoltenberg as they eye ways to honor NATO as it celebrates its 70th anniversary in April and underscore the U.S. commitment to the group’s values and importance in securing global order, according to three people familiar with the discussions who were not authorized to speak publicly.”



Russia’s Tragic Great Power Politics
(FPRI)
“Russia’s enduring characteristics include “an abiding sense of greatness and strategic entitlement; suspicions toward outside influences; an imperial mentality; and a profound political and moral conservatism.” 
 Russia will always have a definition of its minimal security requirements that is out of the norm for a 21st-century European power.”
—
“The Baltics is another area where Russia’s insistence on “perfect” security makes it less secure. 
 Moscow’s intervention in Ukraine, its saber-rattling against NATO members, and its continued attempts to destabilize perceived adversaries throughout Europe and North America have had an effect opposite from the one it presumably hoped. Russia now faces a revitalized and more cohesive NATO, which has deployed forces to within 100 miles of St. Petersburg 
”



Angela Merkel May Be in Office Longer Than You Think
(Spiegel | Deutsche Welle)
“Angela Merkel has led the current grand coalition government in Berlin for a year now. There has been considerable speculation recently that she may not last through her fourth term. But there is more to suggest she will remain in office than step down.”

“Opinion: Angela Merkel must leave on her own terms.”





Eesti poliitika


Estonia Prime Minister Juri Ratas invited EKRE to coalition talks on Monday, reversing a promise to block the anti-immigrant party from the cabinet 

(Reuters | multiple sources)
“The decision marks the first time the ultra-nationalist EKRE has access to power, but forming the coalition is far from certain 
”


“Viies pĂ€ev Keskerakonna, EKRE ja Isamaa lĂ€birÀÀkimisi.”
—


“The party appears to be throwing everything it has at the battle for power in the enthusiastic EU and Nato member Estonia after the centre-left Russia-leaning Centre Party, led by the incumbent PM Juri Ratas, lost the popular vote 
”


“The leader of the pro-European, centre-right Reform party, Kaja Kallas, was expected to become Estonia’s first female prime minister. But Centre ruled out a coalition, opening the way for Ratas to try other governing constellations.”


“Estonia 200 party leader Kristina Kallas [no relation with Kaja Kallas] has said that she is disappointed with all the party leaders in the light of the recent post-election coalition talks.”


“The Center Party opens door to EKRE.”


“Interview: Martin Helme, EKRE Deputy Chairman.”


“Deutsche Welle intervjuu Martin Helmega: Eesti keeles”
(Postimees)


“'We are the mainstream,” says EKRE MP Martin Helme. 
 ''I like Donald Trump.’’ 
 ’’The EU is totalitarian, and people don't like it.” 
 “
a plot was afoot internationally to turn the UN into a global government by 2030.”


“Opinion: Helme not just useful idiot, but pathological liar too.”


“PĂ€rast riigikogu valimisi EKRE Ă”itseb, Isamaa liikmete arv asus langema.”


“Shock Move Gives Populists a Chance to Govern Estonia.”


Opinion: “Estonia not about to join Poland, Hungary. 
 this week's bedlam surrounding the supposed right-wing takeover of Estonia is proving to be so much hot air.”


“Guy Verhofstadt implored JĂŒri Ratas to call off EKRE talks.”


“Former President Arnold RĂŒĂŒtel finds it appropriate that EKRE and Isamaa have decided to join together for the possible formation of a government and believes that the Centre Party, which holds fairly different views, is prepared to compromise.”


“Andrus Ansip: keegi ei mĂ”ista JĂŒri Ratast – nii mitu aastat Euroopas ringi kĂ€inud, aga pole ĂŒldse aru saanud, kuhu ta sattunud on.”


“Abdul Turay in a letter to JĂŒri Ratas: “EKRE are flat out fascists.”


Opinion: “If the Centre-EKRE-Isamaa coalition comes true in Estonia, the far-right EKRE will hold prime minister JĂŒri Ratas by the balls and dictate the coalition’s policy, Andrei Tuch writes.”







Thursday 
14. March


Intervjuu: Luurejuht Mikk Marran
(ERR)
“KĂŒll aga julgen vĂ€ita, et oleme ĂŒhed parimad kui mitte parim selles, mis puudutab infot Vene Föderatsiooni kohta.”



KÔigis Eesti-lÀhedastes FSB signaalluurejaamades töötavad eesti keelt oskavad inimesed
(Postimees - 12. mÀrts)
“VĂ€lisluureamet hoiatab, et Eestist tehtav rahvusvaheline telefonikĂ”ne vĂ”i saadetud e-kiri vĂ”ib lĂ€bida Venemaa sidekanaleid ja nii edastatav info vĂ”ib sattuda Venemaa luureteenistuste kĂ€tte. Ohtu ei vĂ€henda ka eesti keeles rÀÀkimine vĂ”i kirjutamine, kuna kĂ”igis Eesti lĂ€heduses asuvates Venemaa Föderaalse Julgeolekuteenistuse FSB signaalluurejaamades töötavad eesti keelt oskavad inimesed.”



RĂ€ndevoog Eesti ja Soome vahel on vahetanud suunda
(ERR)
“Eesti suursaadik Soome Harri Tiido seletab juhtunut Eesti majanduskasvuga – mis on kiirem kui Euroopa Liidus keskmiselt, aga ka kiirem kui Soomes – ning palgatĂ”usuga. "Kui vahe Soomes ja Eestis makstava palga vahel on [mĂ”nel alal] juba vaid paarsada eurot, hakkab nii mĂ”nigi mĂ”tlema Soome elukallidusele ja kĂ”igele, mis kaasneb pideva [ĂŒle lahe] pendeldamisega: pereprobleemidele, alkoholismile... Kui Eestis on vĂ”imalik stressivabamalt ja peaaegu sama palgaga elada, siis milleks olla Soomes.”



Estonian workers increasingly head home as salaries catch up with Finland
(Yle)
“Finland is not drawing Estonian workers as it has in the past, and those who immigrated to the country in the 15 years after the turn of the millennium to work are increasingly returning to Estonia.
The Estonian ambassador to Finland, Harri Tiido, told Yle that Estonia's economy is growing very quickly. 
 "When the difference in salaries in some sectors is a question of a few hundred euros, people have started to consider the cost of living in Finland. 
 Last year the average salary in Estonia was 1,310 euros per month, while in 2008 the average salary was just 825 euros per month.”



Reinsalu ja Mikser pidasid taas maha tulise sÔnaduelli
(ERR)



Connecting emerging Europe
(Emerging Europe)
“Rail Baltica may indeed one day mean that those of us travelling from Riga to Tallinn can leave the bus behind. We should not hold our breath.”
—
“The total cost of the rail line has been estimated at more than six billion euros, with the European Union footing a maximum of 85 per cent of the bill as part of the TEN-T programme. That still leaves a large amount of the total cost to be met by the Baltic States themselves, and in Estonia especially there is a great deal of opposition to the project. A recent poll put public opposition to the project at 40 per cent.”



NATO edges towards Trump's spending demands, Germany lags
(Deutsche Welle | others)
“European NATO allies increased defense expenditure in 2018, with big rises in the Baltics, Poland and the Netherlands, according to new figures. But while Canadian spending fell, Germany's lagged and only six of NATOs 30 members, excluding the US, met the spending target 
”
—
—

“The Convincing Call From Central Europe: Let Us Into NATO.”




Wednesday 
13. March


Estonia in an evolving Europe
(Brookings)
"In a keynote address, President Kaljulaid discusses challenges facing Europe today and Estonia’s evolving role in the trans-Atlantic community.” 
[Begins at the 1 hour mark in the video.]


European ban on Boeing 737 Max aircraft not to affect Estonian flights
(ERR)
"Not a single Estonian airline uses this type of aircraft.”



Miks ja milliseid riigijuhtide saladusi kaitsepolitsei kogub?
(ERR / “PealtnĂ€gija”)
"PealtnĂ€gija" uuris, kuidas riigisaladuse loa andmise protsess kĂ€ib ning milliseid saladusi kaitsepolitsei poliitikutelt selle kĂ€igus kĂŒsib.”





Tuesday
12. March


Report: International Security and Estonia 2019
(Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service)
[VĂ€lisluureamet report.]

Eesti keeles:

“VĂ€lisluureamet: Venemaa kujutab Eestile endiselt sĂ”jalist ohtu.”

“Main external security threat for Estonia arises from Russia.”

“Europarlament: Venemaad ei saa enam strateegiliseks partneriks pidada.”



VĂ€lisluureamet: Venemaa tĂ”i Eesti piiri lĂ€hedal asuvasse rĂŒndedessantdiviisi tankid
(Postimees)
“VĂ€lisluureameti andmetel tugevdas Venemaa 2018. aastal oma sĂ”jalist jĂ”udu oma lÀÀnepiiri ÀÀres seitsme manööverpolguga, teiste seas sai tugeva tĂ€ienduse ka Pihkva rĂŒndedessantdiviis.”



Report: Russia’s state-backed cyber espionage is in full swing
(Baltic Course)
“In 2018, the GRU's cyber espionage groups APT28 and Sandworm continued to be the most active players within the Russian special services. SNAKE APT, a group tied to the Federal Security Service (FSB), sticks to a different, more familiar line, avoiding excessive public attention and trying to operate below the radar. SNAKE APT uses more sophisticated and expensive tools and attacks targets of long-term value. At the end of 2018, it was revealed that the APT29 group associated with the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), which for some time remained invisible at the global level, has in fact not withdrawn from phishing campaigns either, the report reads.”



InimÔiguste kohus: repressioonid Leedu metsavendade vastu oli genotsiid
(ERR)
“Euroopa inimĂ”iguste kohus (ECHR) otsustas teisipĂ€eval, et Leedus kohtutel oli Ă”igus kuulutada NĂ”ukogude Liidu repressioonid Leedu metsavendade vastu genotsiidiks.”




Monday
11. March



The Art of the NATO Alliance
by Edward Lucas - CEPA
“The United States does not have bases in wealthy European and East Asian countries out of charity. It is there because of bitter experience: staying out of regions that matter merely means that eventual intervention is late and costly. This is why, for all their flaws and imbalances, the transatlantic (and transpacific) alliances have survived for decades. 
”


Swedish Bank Exit Is Estonia’s ‘Ultimate Concern’ After Scandals
(Bloomberg)









Russia
“Trust No One”


Belarus, Russia locked in bitter diplomatic dispute over anti-Russian rhetoric
(BNE)
“A bitter diplomatic row between Russia and neighbouring Belarus sparked on March 15 following an interview of Moscow's ambassador Mikhail Babich, who has accused President Alexander Lukashenko of using anti-Russian rhetoric with the aim to mobilise Belarusian voters "against some imaginary enemy".



Russia Imposes Foreign Sailing Restrictions on Northern Sea Route
(Warsaw Institute)
“Moscow will be de-facto able to impede non-Russian ship passage through its strategically important Arctic sea route in the framework of Russia’s isolation and militarization policy that seeks to embrace the Arctic region in particular.”



Izvestia: This is what awaits foreign military vessels on Northern Sea Route
(The Barents Observer)
“Sailing on the route will have to be announced at least 45 days in advance and ships not complying with the rules will be forcibly stopped. 
 Judging from Izvestia, the new set of NSR rules has its prime aim on the USA and Nato.”


5 Years Since Russia’s Intervention in Ukraine: Has Putin’s Gamble Paid Off?
(Russia Matters)
“The answer is of paramount importance as it can illuminate Russian leaders’ decisions on future interventions—whether to pursue them, where and how.”



How Russia Gets To Build Its Most Controversial Pipeline
“EU disunity, support from key energy companies, and Trump’s acquiescence will see Nord Stream 2 completed.”
(Riddle)



Just How Bad are Russian Roads? ‘Novyye Izvestiya’ Assembles the Numbers
by Paul Goble - Window on Eurasia
“Roads in Russia are notoriously bad, the result of a combination of climate, corruption, backward technologies, and a budgetary system that means those who build roads they will soon have to repair will make more than those who build highways that will last.”



Make Russia great again: Putin building roads and bridges
(Christian Science Monitor)
“There are a dozen big projects outlined by presidential decrees of May 2018” after Mr. Putin’s reelection, says Vladimir Klimanov, an economist with the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA).”



How Kremlin-backed yarns help keep Vladimir Putin in power
(PRI)
“Everything bad that happens in Russia is traced back by some to one or another anti-Russian plot hatched in the West.”



As Russians protested ‘Internet isolation’, hackers launched DNS attacks against Yandex
(Meduza)
“Several major Russian Internet companies, including Yandex and the news outlet RBC, suffered massive network attacks this week that were made possible by vulnerabilities in the system the federal government uses to block websites.”



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