✔︎ May 2018 was reported to be the hottest month in Estonia in over 50 years. While the present weather may not be indicative of global climate change, it did bring up the question regarding the Baltic Sea’s future. The following list of articles is not an exhaustive one; studies and projections vary due to the complexity of global warming. But we can get some idea of what could happen between now and the year 2100 from the information presented.
✔︎ Photo is of glacial boulders at Cape Purakkari, the most northern point of mainland Estonia. The photo was taken right after sunset in October of 2013. A long camera exposure made the Baltic Sea waves look like a mist.
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Kliimamuutus
Climate change projections up to
the year 2100 for Estonia and the
Baltic Sea region
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- Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin
‘Open-Access’
Downloadable PDF
(Springer International Publishing)
"This book is an update of the first BACC assessment, published in 2008. It offers new and updated scientific findings in regional climate research for the Baltic Sea basin. These include climate changes since the last glaciation (approx. 12,000 years ago), changes in the recent past (the last 200 years), climate projections up until 2100 using state-of-the-art regional climate models and an assessment of climate-change impacts on terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. There are dedicated new chapters on sea-level rise, coastal erosion and impacts on urban areas. A new set of chapters deals with possible causes of regional climate change ...”
- Mida on kliimamuutused Eesti looduses korda saatnud ja milline on tulevik?
(Postimees)
"Kliimamuutused on Eesti loodusele oma jĂ€lje juba jĂ€tnud ning tulevikus sĂŒveneb see veelgi, kinnitavad Tartu ĂŒlikooli teadlased."
- Will Estonia have a climate similar to northern Scotland?
(Tartu University Blog - Feb. 2017)
"In fact, the climate has been warming particularly drastically on the east coast of the Baltic Sea. While global air temperature has risen about 0.8° C in 140 years, the average rise in Estonia has been 2° C during the last half of the century. … if the climate continues to change in a similar manner, climate models predict that by the end of this century, Estonia will have (in the worst case) a climate similar to northern Scotland. The winters would gradually become rainier, as well as muddier."
- Weather statistics for Inverness, Northern Scotland
(Norwegian Meteorological Institute)
- Miks Eesti suvi lĂ€heb aina kĂŒlmemaks ja kas nii jÀÀbki?
(ERR - okt. 2017)
"KÔik ei ole aga sugugi nii lihtne. Hetkel oleme tunnistajaks maakera kliima soojenemisele, liustikud sulavad ja maailmamere tase tÔuseb nii liustiku sulamise kui ka vee soojuspaisumise tÔttu. Optimistlikumad prognoosid lubavad aastaks 2100 umbes 25-sentimeetrist meretaseme tÔusu. See on enam-vÀhem vÔrdne Saaremaa piirkonna maakerkega, pessimistlikumad prognoosid lubavad aga enam kui 80 sentimeetrist meretaseme tÔusu. MÔlemal juhul peame tunnistama, et Saaremaa ja mandri vaheline kaugus ilmselt suureneb."
- Finnish Meteorological Institute
(Press Release - May 2015)
"Warming air temperature in the Baltic Sea region has already been verified, but the increase is seasonally and regionally different. The most drastic recorded increase in warming to have occurred in the northern Baltic Sea region was 1.5 degrees Celsius between 1871 and 2011 during the spring seasons."
- Land uplift counteracts sea level rise on the Finnish coast
(Various Sources)
"In the northern parts of the Gulf of Bothnia, land uplift can be expected to overcome the rise in sea level even in the future. New land would still emerge from under the sea, although more slowly than before. The most probable outcome in the Bothnian Bay is a sea level decline of 30 cm in 2000–2100 …"
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- The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean
(Science Advances - 9. May 2018)
“... to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration …"
- Pomerants: kliimamuutusteks tuleb valmis olla
(Keskkonnaministeerium - 2017)
"Kliimamuutuste mĂ”jusid vĂ”ib kohata juba praegu: möödunud 10 aasta jooksul on sagenenud rannikualadel ning siseveekogude ÀÀres paiknevate linnade (PĂ€rnu, Haapsalu, Tallinn, Tartu) ĂŒleujutused ning marutuulte ning ekstreemsete sademete esinemine."
- Kliimamuutus toob Eestisse talvepori, suvekuuma ja ĂŒleujutused
(ERR | Tartu Ălikool - 2016)
"Kliimamuutused on midagi, mida tĂ€napĂ€eva Eestis saab kĂ€ega katsuda. Tehke jalutuskĂ€ik metsa ja te nĂ€ete seal noori tammesid. See tĂ€hendab, et meil on juba paarkĂŒmmend aastat olnud nii soojad talved, et tammel on siin mĂ”nus juurduda."
- Estonian Climate in 2100: Sea Level, Sea Ice, Snow Cover
(Ministry of the Environment - undated)
"This century ... may entail an average rise of approximately 40–60 cm on the Estonian coasts by the end of the 21st century. The average ocean level rise by the year 2100 will be 52–98 cm. … In 2080, most of the Baltic Sea will be ice-free during typical winters.”
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"Coastal floods threaten four cities: Kuressaare, Haapsalu, PĂ€rnu, and Tallinn, and 8 small towns. The effect is greater in Virtsu, Nasva, UuemĂ”isa, VĂ”iste, and Paralepa. The risk of flooding rivers will be the most real and potentially most large- scale in Tartu, regarding River EmajĂ”gi, and the risk of flooding lakes will be the most real in VĂ”ru, on the shores of Tamula.”
- Coastal flood risk: Estonia
(Climate Change Post - May 2018)
"Due to a long coastline and extensive low-lying coastal areas, global climate change through sea-level rise will strongly affect the territory of Estonia."
- Kilingi-NÔmme kandi metsalinnud aitavad kliimamuutust uurida
(Delfi)
"Kuna viimaste kĂŒmnendite kevaded on ĂŒha varajasemad, tekib kĂŒsimus, kas ka linnud on hakanud pesitsema varem ning kas rĂ€nd- ja paigalinnud reageerivad kliima muutumisele sarnaselt. Meil talvitav ja seetĂ”ttu Eesti oludest ĂŒsna teadlik rasvatihane (Parus major) peaks suutma muutustega edukamalt kohaneda, kui kaugel Aafrikas talvitav must-kĂ€rbsenĂ€pp (Ficedula hypoleuca), kes ei pruugi teada pesitsusalade varajasest kevadest."
- 11,000 aasta tagune kliimasoojenemine aitab mÔista praeguse muutuse mÔju loodusele
(ERR)
"Kiireid kliimamuutusi, mis sarnanevad tÀnapÀevastele, on ajaloos toimunud varemgi. Need vÔimaldavad tÔmmata paralleele ka praeguse kliimamuutusega ja vaadata, kuidas see vÔib mÔjuda looduskeskkonnale."
- Climate change scenarios and the effect of sea-level rise for Estonia
(Science Direct - 2003)
"The main threats in Estonia that could be connected with sea-level rise are flooding coastal areas, erosion of sandy beaches and the destruction of harbour constructions."
- Sea-Level Rise in the Baltic Sea: PĂ€rnu as an Example
(European Commission - 2005)
"The considerably low elevation (around 10 metres above sea-level) makes PĂ€rnu city extremely vulnerable to flood events. The historical centre, spas and hotels, the harbour – all are located in the area of direct impact of storm inundation."
- PĂ€rnu, Haapsalu Torm: 2005 a.
(ERR - 2017 | LÀÀne Elu - 2015)
"LÀÀnemere veetasemete prognoosi teeb keerukaks asjaolu, et ĂŒle Taani vĂ€inade liikuvate tormide seeriad vĂ”ivad merre pressida nii palju vett juurde, et kogu mere veetase tĂ”useb kuni ĂŒhe meetri vĂ”rra."
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- Finland: Rising sea level raises flood risks in South
(Daily Finland - April 2018)
"The sea level in the Gulf of Finland could rise by as much as 80-90cm during this century, according to the updated estimates by the Finnish Meteorological Institute."
- Finland’s Climate change
(Climate Change Post - May 2018)
"By the 2020s, according to four scenarios, the annual mean temperature is projected to rise by 1–3°C relative to the baseline period of 1961–1990, and by 2–5°C and 2–7°C by the 2050s and 2080s, respectively.”
"PĂ”hja-Soomet ja PĂ”hja-Rootsit Ă€hvardavad suured ĂŒleujutused.”
- Sweden’s Climate change
(Climate Change Post - May 2018)
"Temperature will rise more in Sweden and Scandinavia than the global mean. A rise in mean temperature in Sweden has been estimated of about 0.4°C per 10-year period.”
"The Swedish government is setting up a guest research program to attract American climate and environmental scientists."
"Climate change tops list of Swedes' fears about the future.”
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Friday 1. June
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✔︎ Uma Pido juubelipidu toob laulukaare alla rekordarvu esinejaid
(LÔuna Leht)
"VĂ”rukeelne laulu- ja rahvapidu Uma Pido toob laupĂ€eval, 2. juunil Kubija laulukaare alla 3800 lauljat. Selle suurejoonelise juubelipeoga tĂ€histakse nii kĂŒmneaastast Uma Peo traditsiooni kui ka Eesti Vabariigi 100 aasta juubelit."
- What is “Uma Pido”?
"Uma Pido is a VĂ”ro-language song and folk festival. … The VĂ”ro language, like Estonian, Hungarian, and Finnish, is a Finno-Ugric language. VĂ”ro is a descendant of the old South Estonian tribal language and is the least influenced by North Estonian. In addition to VĂ”ro, other contemporary South Estonian languages include Mulgi, Tartu and Seto. The earliest written evidence of South Estonian is a translation of the New Testament published in 1688."
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- NATO taeva nÔrgim koht
(Postimees - paywall)
"Kriisi vĂ”i sĂ”ja puhkedes pole Eesti, LĂ€ti ja Leedu vĂ”imelised toetama oma Ă”huruumi viimist NATO-le vajalikku Ă”hukaitseseisundisse, mida liitlaste siia toomiseks tarvis oleks. Omal kĂ€el suudavad kolm riiki kaitsta ĂŒksnes kĂ€putĂ€it kriitilisi sihtmĂ€rke ja sedagi lĂŒhikest aega, nendib vĂ€rske Ă”hukaitseraport."
- Intervjuu: Austria president Alexander van der Bellen
(ERR)
- EU announces retaliation against Trump tariffs
(Politico-Europe | Daily Beast)
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- US sanctions have a weak spot: tiny allies like Latvia
(AP)
"One of the biggest banks in Latvia - a member country of the European Union and NATO - built a business from processing illegal money transfers, enabling North Korea to continue to procure missiles, the U.S. government says. Latvia has come into focus as a potential weak link in the West’s banking system as the U.S. and EU increasingly rely on financial sanctions as a weapon in their diplomatic spats ... Latvia is now trying to appease its U.S. and European allies and drastically reform its financial sector."
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Thursday 31. May
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- Moscow Paper Novyye izvestiya Asks a Most Inconvenient Question: ‘What is the Secret of Estonia’s Success?’
(Window on Eurasia)
“At the base of the Estonian economy lies the rational Scandinavian mentality of the people, a Protestant work ethic, and one of the lowest levels of corruption in the world … And although in the Baltic there is not even one tenth of one percent of the natural wealth which exists in Russia, these countries live and are developing better and more rapidly than Russia."
- Moskva ajaleht: mis on Eesti edu saladus?
(Postimees)
"NovÔje Izvestija: Et kui Baltimaid poleks okupeeritud, oleks siinne palk kahekordne."
- NATO And Russia are Poles Apart
by Janusz Bugajski
(CEPA - 25. May)
"All too often, commentators parrot the Kremlin script that NATO and Russia are strategically and politically equivalent. In reality, in terms of structure, objectives, strategies, and operations, the contrasts could not be starker. …"
- NATO Warns Russia On ‘Malign Activities’
(RFERL)
"Along with the stern message, NATO ambassadors also briefed their Russian counterparts on a huge military maneuver involving 40,000 troops scheduled for Norway in October."
- Finland calls for probe of Finnish SS soldiers' possible role in war crimes during WWII
(Yle)
"The probe was prompted by a request from the "chief Nazi hunter" from an international Jewish human rights group …”
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Wednesday 30. May
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- Plaan on paigas: Kaljulaid lÀheb Narva tööle juba augusti lÔpus
(Delfi)
"Narva linnapea Tarmo Tamm avaldas tÀpsema plaani, kuidas kavatseb president Kersti Kaljulaid tÀita oma lubadust töötada kuu aega ses Ida-Virumaa piirilinnas."
- Why Brussels feels so dazed and confused in 2018
(Politico-Europe)
"As much as some like to say that Europeans found new love for the EU in the wake of Brexit — and yes, they did — it’s also indisputable that never before have so many EU countries been led by people who are hostile to the “project.”
- Opinion: Is this the future of Europe?
(EU Observer)
"We are less than 12 months away from the public going to the polls, and Brussels has yet to offer the voters an honest and very necessary appraisal of the EU, warts and all. It is time to start admitting where mistakes have been made, show that Brussels has learned its lessons, and show that it is capable of taking a different path forward.”
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"Brussels has lost sight of the fact that it is there to serve not to dominate, and that the largest part of leading, is listening.”
- Ukraine: Life, Death, and Resurrection of Journalist
Arkady Babchenko
by Masha Gessen
(The New Yorker)
"The Russian journalist Arkady Babchenko appeared at a press conference after faking his own assassination as part of a sting operation in coöperation with Ukranian law enforcement.”
"I wanted to avoid Skripal’s fate.”
- Vene ajakirjanik lavastas oma mÔrva koostöös Ukraina julgeolekuteenistusega
(Postimees)
(Postimees)
"Babtƥenko lavastas enda mÔrva koostöös Ukraina Julgeolekuteenistusega (SBU), et aidata uurida tema vastu tehtud tapmisÀhvardusi ja nurjata Vene eriteenistuste plaane Ukrainas."
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Tuesday 29. May
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- Poland offers US up to $2B for permanent military base
(Multiple Sources)
"Warsaw wants American boots on ground as protection against Russia."
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- Pharmaceutical residues are widespread in Baltic Sea coastal and offshore waters
(Science Direct - 3. April 2018)
"The Baltic Sea is vulnerable to anthropogenic activities due to a long turnover time and a sensitive ecosystem in the brackish water. Thirty-nine of 93 pharmaceuticals were detected in at least one sample, with concentrations ranging between 0.01 and 80 ng/L. One of the pharmaceuticals investigated, the anti-epileptic drug carbamazepine, was widespread in coastal and offshore seawaters …"
- EU plans €30bn funding shift from central and eastern Europe
(Financial Times)
"Hungary, the Czech Republic, Estonia, and Lithuania face 24 per cent reductions — the maximum permitted national losses before the commission’s “safety net” takes effect.”
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"When measured by the amount of development support per head, Baltic and central European countries remain some of the biggest beneficiaries of cohesion spending."
- BrĂŒssel plaanib Eesti eurorahasid veerandi vĂ”rra vĂ€hendada
(Ărileht)
- Baltic electricity networks must be synchronized with the European grid via two ‘LitPol' links between Lithuania and Poland
(ERR)
"The Baltic prime ministers have promised to sign the final agreement regarding synchronisation this June. … While Lithuania and Poland found that one LitPol link was enough, Estonia and Latvia wanted a second connection to be built."
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Electrical network connections
(Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications)
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- Logistics center to be set up at Belarus/Latvian border
(Latvian Broadcasting)
"Construction of the park is to start next year, with officials saying it may play a strategic role in the border area of Latgale, eastern Latvia."
- Ruhnu: How the tiny Baltic island came under Estonian control
(Latvian Broadcasting)
"Ruhnu island had always been part of Latvian territory. Until the First World War, it was part of the Russian Empire's Governorate of Livonia. So why, one may ask, is it Estonia’s?"
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Russia
“Trust No One"
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- Putin's Secret Services: How the Kremlin Corralled the FSB
(Foreign Affairs)
- Future Leaders of Russia?
(Riddle)
"A new generation of government officials is gradually emerging, but old hands in Russia’s institutions have been unwilling to make space for fresh faces."
- Those Guys With Whips? They’re Cossacks Meant to Keep you Safe at Russia’s World Cup
(The Moscow Times)
"Just a few weeks ago, they lashed anti-Putin protesters in Moscow. … a news report surfaced that one of the Cossack units had been trained by Moscow city authorities in handling large street gatherings. The report also said that the group had received funding from the Moscow mayor’s office totalling 16 million rubles (about $261,000).”
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