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22 April, 2022


 â€œEstonian websites targeted so far included the president (president.ee), Ministry of Foreign Affairs (vm.ee), Police and Border Guard Board (politsei.ee), digital state services portal (eesti.ee), the ID card information page (id.ee), NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (ccdcoe.org), state train company Elron (elron.ee) and tallinn-airport.ee.” - ERR, 22. April




RĂŒnnati Eesti riigi peamisi veebilehti
(Postimees)
“TĂ€na alates kella 16st tuvastas RIA kĂŒberintsidentide kĂ€sitlemise osakond (CERT-EE) ummistusrĂŒnnakud (DDoS) riiklike veebilehtede vastu. RĂŒnnakute tĂ”ttu olid lĂŒhiajaliselt hĂ€iritud mĂ”ne veebilehe kasutamine, kuid suuremat mĂ”ju rĂŒnnakud ei avaldanud. RĂŒnnakute sihtmĂ€rgiks olid muuhulgas eesti.ee, id.ee, politsei.ee, vm.ee, president.ee veebid, lisaks prooviti hĂ€irida ka teiste riigiga seotud organisatsioonide veebilehtede tööd.”









‘Locked Shields 2022’ held in Tallinn
(NPR | other sources)
“From the tiny Baltic nation of Estonia, some 30 nations are participating in mock cyberwar exercises. While the annual NATO-led exercise may be fiction, the threat emanating from Russia is very real.”
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If anyone understands Russian cyber dangers, it's Ilves
(Washington Post)
“Toomas Hendrik Ilves knows what it’s like to face a grueling Russian cyberattack. As president of Estonia in 2007, he led his nation through a blistering digital attack that shut down government and financial websites for days. â€Š Now, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its second month, Ilves is warning that Russia could turn to disruptive or even destructive cyberattacks to alter the course of the conflict.”







Friday 22. April


Russia Closes Consulates Of Three Baltic States, Expels Staff Members
(RFERL)
“The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement issued on April 21 that it has told Riga that the Latvian consulates in St. Petersburg and Pskov must be closed, while Tallinn was informed that the Estonian Consulate in St. Petersburg and its office in Pskov will be shut. Vilnius has been notified that the Lithuanian consulate in St. Petersburg is also to be shuttered, the statement said.”
—
“Earlier on April 21, Estonia joined Latvia and Lithuania in banning the display of the symbols "Z" and "V," which are used by supporters of Russia's war in Ukraine.”
—





Berlin failed to pay enough attention to the Baltic states’ warnings about Russia
(LRT)
“German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock admitted that Berlin failed to pay enough attention 
 “Having a minimal military presence in the Baltics and Poland will not suffice in the future,” Baerbock said. “The reinforcements of our troops present in the eastern flank of our Alliance has to have a long-term perspective.”
—
“According to Baerbock, Germany must (also) accept criticism of its position on Nord Stream 2. Germany’s top diplomat said that her country sold gas storage facilities to Russian companies and now has to work to get them back.”
—
“These are clearly mistakes that we committed,” she said.”



Baltic Sea Mining as an Extension of the Russian Gray Zone
(FPRI)
“NATO must realize Russian use of mines could cause severe energy and economic impacts to the Baltic region. Energy coercion is one of Russia’s primary means of exercising gray-zone power. The Baltic region accounts for over 40 percent of all Russian energy exports. Russian use of mines to protect their energy resources and induce energy coercion in the region would cause severe energy and economic impacts to affected Baltic nations. 
 Russia is known to maintain the largest sea mine stockpile of any nation — approximately 250,000 munitions.”



Per GDP, Estonia has donated far more to Ukraine than any other nation
(Estonian World)
“The Kiel Institute 
 points out that the Eastern European countries stand out as “particularly generous when considering the size of their economy, with Estonia, Poland, Lithuania and Slovakia being the top four donors. The United States (being the largest donor in absolute terms) comes in sixth, providing assistance worth around 0.04 percent of its GDP.”



Tallinnas tuli ehitustöödel maa seest vÀlja keskaegne hansakoge
(Novaator)
“Tallinnas leiti ehitustööde kĂ€igus Eesti seni ĂŒks suuremaid hansakogesid. Keskaegne kaubalaev asub Lootsi tĂ€nava bĂŒroohoone ehitusplatsil ja on hĂ€sti sĂ€ilinud, arvestades mitme sajandi jooksul selles piirkonnas toimunud ehitustöid.”



Hanseatic Cog Found 700 Years After Last Trading Expedition Five Feet Under Tallinn Street
(Ancient Origins | Other sources)
“A ship dating back to 1298 was found 200 meters away from the shore in Tallin, the capital of Estonia. It is believed to have been a trading ship and was preserved exceptionally well.”
—
“The reason there are so many shipwrecks in the greater Tallinn area is that this entire region was underwater, seawater, till as late as the 18th century. The entire area would be under two meters (6.5 feet) of water back in the 13th century. By the late 1930s, the area was filled in with ash and household refuse. The ships would have either been sunk here deliberately, or buried over time by siltification, the reason still not being quite clear, reports Arkeonews.”
—
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Finland’s network of bunkers
(The Guardian)
“Helsinki has been building a network of bomb shelters since the 1960s that can now host more than the capital’s population. 
 “I don’t want to brag, but the Finnish bomb shelter technology is one of the best. We have been doing this for a while,” Tomi Rask, a safety instructor of Helsinki’s Civil defence centre said, pointing to the two massive steel doors at the entry of the shelter, that would withstand heavy bombardment – including nuclear – as well as chemical attacks.”



No, Russia is not "moving equipment to the Finnish border”
(Yle)
“Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a researcher at the Finnish institute for International Affairs, told the APN podcast that most of the troops ordinarily stationed near Finland have been fighting in Ukraine. "And based on various reports, one might say they've been decimated, or at least severely degraded," said Salonius-Pasternak. "Some are even completely destroyed.”
—
“And that's one of the reasons why basically every Finnish military analyst, or people who do research on these things, is saying that Russia does not have anywhere near the ability to conduct an operation against Finland like we're seeing in Ukraine."











Thursday 21. April


Estonia accuses Russia of genocide in Ukraine: 'Massive war crimes'
(Euronews | Estonian World Review)
“Estonia has become one of the first countries in the EU to label Russia's actions in Ukraine as genocide. The country's parliament, the Riigikogu, voted in favour on Thursday of recognising Russia's war as a "genocide against the Ukrainian people", calling on other governments and international organisations to "do the same.” In a tweet, Estonia's ambassador to Ukraine, Mariana Betsa, described the move as "a truly historic decision."Russia must bear full responsibility for its horrible crimes.”
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Baltic Sea region needs to prepare for a difficult summer
(ERR)
“Security expert Meelis Oidsalu said that Estonia and the region is looking at a relatively difficult summer as Finland's likely NATO accession could result in pressure from Russia and the security crisis escalating closer to Estonia. "Finland will join NATO, and we can expect Russia to exert pressure on NATO allies, including Estonia or Finland. In any case, we need to be prepared for the crisis escalating also in our region.”



Will war change Finland’s pragmatic approach to Russia?
(The Guardian)
“After the Soviet Union’s fall, Lappeenranta epitomised Finland’s pragmatic relationship with Russia, which centred around developing business relations with Moscow while successive Finnish leaders maintained dialogue with Putin. Jarva estimated that 1.5 million Russians visited the city every year pre-pandemic, bringing in millions of euros in revenue, with some shops specifically catering to them. Lappeenranta also established its own office in St Petersburg and marketed itself to tourists in the west as a “gateway” to Russia. Very few cars now embark on the highway leading to the Finnish-Russian border as the two countries have practically banned all private and commercial traffic from entering each other’s territories. 
”



This decision will be the 2nd geopolitical catastrophe for Russia
(Lithuanian Tribune)
“The accession of Sweden and Finland would make the Alliance dominant in the Baltic Sea, undermine the defence of the Kaliningrad region, and force Russia to re-plan how it will protect St Petersburg and its Northern Fleet base.”










Wednesday 20. April


Police to ban public meetings toting hostile symbols in northern Estonia
(ERR)
“In connection with potential gatherings on the April 26 anniversary of 2007 unrest in Tallinn (the so-called Bronze Night) and May 9, the police will be banning public meetings that could incite hatred and where symbols of aggression could be displayed between April 26 and May 10. Commemorating victims of WWII is not prohibited but must not manifest in inciting violence and feud.”







Estonia’s Kristjan Prikk says NATO deterrence model no longer enough
(Washington Diplomat)
“Kristjan Prikk, Estonia's ambassador to the United States, sees no imminent Russian invasion of the Baltics following its carnage in Ukraine. But he’s clearly worried that if the world doesn’t teach Vladimir Putin a lesson soon, the consequences for Europe could be severe and frightening.”





LÀÀnemere ruum pÀrast Soome ja Rootsi liitumist NATO-ga
(Vikerraadio, 18. aprill)
“Kuidas soomlaste ja rootslaste otsus mĂ”jutab LÀÀnemere piirkonna julgeolekut, millised on Venemaa vastusammud ja milleks Eesti peab valmis olema, selle ĂŒle arutlevad Eesti suursaadik Soomes Sven Sakkov, endine kaitsevĂ€e juhataja ja praegune Europarlamendi liige Riho Terras ning riigikogu riigikaitsekomisjoni liige Leo Kunnas.”







Original sketch by artist Boris Groh which was
made into a limited-run postage stamp by Ukraine's state 
postal company. The Ukrainian postage stamps quickly sold out.




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Putin’s War
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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: 22. April 2022
(ISW)
[ISW produces excellent, detailed, open-source intelligence analysis.]



Russia says it plans ‘full control’ of Donbas and southern Ukraine
(Politico Europe)
“Deputy commander of Russia’s central military district says control over Donbas ‘will enable us to establish a ground corridor to Crimea.”






Mis on Mozarti grupp ja kuidas see on seotud Ukrainaga?
(Postimees)
“Mozarti grupi asutas praeguse sĂ”ja ajal endine USA armee komandör kolonel Andrew Milburn. Ta oli esimene merejalavĂ€elane, kes juhtis erioperatsioonide ĂŒksust ÀÀrmusrĂŒhmituse Islamiriik vastases sĂ”jas. Milburn liitus USA merejalavĂ€ega Londonis reamehena ja lĂ€ks 31 aastat hiljem 2019. aastal kolonelina pensionile.”
—
“Milburn ja Mozarti grupp koolitavad nĂŒĂŒd Ukraina erivĂ€elasi, Ă”petades neile sĂ”jalisi oskusi, mis neil puuduvad. Nende oskuste hulka kuuluvad snaiprikoolitus, improviseeritud lĂ”hkekehade (IED) leidmine ja tĂ€iendav taktikaline teadlikkus, et parandada lahinguvĂ”imet.”






Russia’s Military Has a Railroad Problem
(Foreign Policy)
“Unlike any other standing army, Russia has an auxiliary service known as the Railway Troops (or “zheleznodorozhniye voiska”), which protect and maintain the railway services for use during combat. Their 10 brigades are attached to military districts and work to repair damaged lines, build or reconstruct bridges, and assist the armed forces in concealment. They can also supply fuel, clothing, and weapons to the front as well as restore road and rail access if they are bombed in combat. 
 But overreliance on the railways for large-scale troop deployment seems to have been one of Russia’s main stumbling blocks in this war.”



Russia’s Military: Failure on an Awesome Scale
(CEPA)
“During the 2010s, the Russians proudly announced a shift from a conscript-based force to armed forces manned by professionals, together with an improved and empowered non-commissioned officer (NCO) corps. A competent NCO corps is what makes the most effective militaries in the world function at the tactical level.”
—
“Unfortunately for the Russians, their system is designed to prevent precisely this. Empowered NCOs need to have information and to be able to make decisions while leading. The Russian system is based on tight control of information and highly centralized decision-making. Reports that Russian soldiers deployed for combat believed they were still on exercises in friendly territory are common. This hurts the Russian military where it matters — on the front line. It is extremely unlikely that the Russian military will ever allow an empowered NCO corps.”



Russia’s military never outgrew the brutal mindset of its Soviet origins
(Riddle)
“Russian soldiers who committed war crimes in Georgia, Syria, and Ukraine (before the current conflict) never faced disciplinary action and the military as a whole never absorbed any institutional culture that may help minimize civilian casualties. Western militaries have increasingly moved in the other direction, even at the expense of operational tempo. But in the Russian military, no such safeguards exist.”





And Finally:

Putin Wants to Be Feared – Like Stalin and Hitler
(Spiegel)
British historian Antony Beevor: â€œFirst of all, one needs to remember that Putin’s Russia is not an extension of the Soviet Union, and the Russian Army today is no longer the Red Army, which makes the comparison all the more interesting. Because both are profoundly influenced by the past. I would argue that no country is as much a prisoner of its past as Russia, as Putin’s distorted vision of history reveals. His obsession with the "Great Patriotic War” against Hitler’s Germany has indeed contributed to extraordinary blunders in its invasion of Ukraine and to strange repetition of mistakes from the past.”




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