Putin Can’t Think He’s Won This War

By Kaja Kallas, New York Times

“At NATO, our focus should be simple: Mr. Putin cannot win this war. He cannot even think he has won, or his appetite will grow. We need to demonstrate the will and commit resources to defend NATO territory. To check Russia’s aggression, we need to put in place a long-term policy of smart containment.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/24/opinion/nato-russia-putin-estonia.html

Reprinted in Estonian World Review

https://www.eesti.ca/im-the-prime-minister-of-estonia-putin-cant-think-hes-won-this-war/article59105

“Kaja Kallas: Putin ei tohi seda sõda võita.” - ERR

NATO looks at its weakest link

(Reuters)

“The issue is access. Before the Soviet Union was dissolved, NATO could have moved to contain the Soviet Union by blocking the western entrance of the Baltic Sea. That would seal in the Soviet Union's Baltic Fleet to prevent it from reaching the North Sea where its warships could attack U.S. supply convoys. Today, NATO's and Russia's roles have been reversed: An emboldened Moscow could encircle NATO's new Baltic members, and cut them off from the alliance. If a new Iron Curtain is to fall, NATO needs to ensure its members are not behind it.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-may-not-stop-with-ukraine-nato-looks-its-weakest-link-2022-03-21/

“NATO Achilleuse kand? Vaata, mis on Suwałki koridor …” - Delfi

Sources/ German navy; NATO; Natural Earth; Marine Regions,
Flanders Marine Institute Prasanta Kumar Dutta | Reuters, Mar. 18, 2022

“NATO Must Prepare to Defend the Suwalki Corridor.” - Foreign Policy

“Suwalki Corridor could block NATO from Baltic states.” - National Post

“Baltic states fear encirclement as Russia security threat rises.” - FT

Friday 25. March

Raik: lääneriigid hakkavad väsima sõjast

(ERR | Postimees)

“Esimesest šokist on üle saadud, nii Euroopa Liit kui NATO on teinud väga tugevaid otsuseid …”

https://www.err.ee/1608544162/raik-tundub-et-laas-hakkab-vasima

—

https://www.postimees.ee/7485671/kristi-raik-laaneriigid-hakkavad-vasima-sojast

Kuhu pageda rünnaku korral?

(Pealinn)

“Eestis pole võimaliku sõjalise konflikti puhuks varjendisüsteemi loodud. 2019. aastal leidsid riigikantselei eksperdid, et Eestisse eraldi varjendeid rajada oleks liialt kallis. Rünnaku korral ei pruugiks need aidata. Nii leiti, et kõige mõistlikum on kasutada ohu korral juba olemasolevaid hooneid, keldreid ja maa-aluseid garaaže.”

https://pealinn.ee/2022/03/21/kuhu-pageda-runnaku-korral/

Kapo: Eestis viiendat kolonni ei ole

(ERR, 23. märts)

“Kaitsepolitseiameti peadirektori asetäitja Martin Arpo ütles "Vikerhommikus", et Eesti julgeolekule võimalikku ohtu kujutavat viiendat kolonni Eestis ei ole. ‘Mingit viiendat kolonni sellises mõistes Eestis ei ole. Jah, on kremlimeelseid isikuid. On ka selliseid väiksemaid gruppe. Neil laiemat mõju ühiskonnas tegelikult ei ole,’ rääkis Arpo.”

https://www.err.ee/1608540988/kapo-asejuht-eestis-viiendat-kolonni-ei-ole

“There is no ‘5th Column’ in Eesti.” - ERR

“Pro-Kremlin sentiment in Estonia deemed insignificant by security service.” - BNN

Is Moscow about to Play the Latgale Card against Latvia and the Balts?

By Paul Goble

“Just as Putin began his aggression against Ukraine not by taking on the entire country but instead by his Anschluss of Crimea and establishment of breakaway and Russian dominated statelets in the Donbass, so too he may approach the Baltic countries in the same way. Indeed, there is a clear precedent for that.”

—

           “It involves Latgale, an impoverished region in eastern Latvia next to the Russian border of approximately 250,000 people whose cities are still dominated by ethnic Russians and whose rural areas are divided between Catholic Poles and Orthodox Latgals, the original indigenous population. …”

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/03/is-moscow-about-to-play-latgale-card.html

Estonian bank tells Russian oligarchs: Don’t try money laundering here

(Politico Europe)

“The country has beefed up anti-money laundering efforts to overcome the legacy of scandal.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/estonian-central-bank-chief-tells-russian-oligarchs-dont-try-money-laundering-here/

“Swedbanki endine rahapesu osakonna juhataja: mulle esitatud kahtlustus on ebaloogiline.” - Postimees

“Swedish bank suspected of money laundering in Estonia.” - ABCNews

Jens Stoltenberg to stay on as NATO Secretary-General for an extra year

(PBS | Baltic Times)

“The 63-year-old former Norwegian prime minister had been due to return to his homeland to head the central bank before the end of the year. But Norwegian finance minister Trygve Slagsvold Vedum confirmed that Stoltenberg had resigned from the post before even taking it up because of the "dramatic situation in Europe".

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/nato-secretary-general-stoltenberg-term-extended-for-a-year-due-to-russias-war

—

https://www.baltictimes.com/stoltenberg_to_stay_on_as_nato_chief_for_an_extra_year/

Estonia increases defense spending to buy air defense systems

(Defense News)

“Estonia has approved a €476 million (U.S. $523 million) defense spending hike, the majority of which is for short- to mid-range air defense systems.”

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/03/25/estonia-increases-defense-spending-to-buy-air-defense-systems-more-weapons/

“Estonia to allocate additional €500 million for its defence capabilities.” - Estonian World

“Government approves €600 million defense funding package.” - ERR

Thursday 24. March

Arvamus: Tegutseme, et Baltimaad ei saaks järgmiseks 

(Eesti Päevaleht)

“Aga positiivselt poolelt saab praegu öelda, et keskmises perspektiivis on Eesti julgeolek paremini tagatud kui enne Ukraina sõda. Oluline osa Vene vägesid on Ukrainas seotud või hävitatud. Balti riikidesse on NATO vägesid juurde toodud. Eesti ja teised NATO riigid suurendavad oma kaitsekulutusi. Teisisõnu: Vene oht Eestile on kogu aeg olemas olnud, aga tänu Ukraina südikale vastupanule on see vähemalt mõnda aega väiksem kui enne. Kas see „mõnda aega” tähendab kaht või kümmet aastat või veel pikemat ajavahemikku, oleneb Putini käekäigust Ukrainas ja lääneriikide edasistest sammudest. Isegi juhul, kui Putin Ukrainas sõja võidaks, kulub Vene relvajõududel enda kogumiseks aastaid. Me ei peaks praegu värisema, kui keegi arvab, et Baltimaad on järgmised, vaid tegutsema sihikindlalt selle nimel, et me ei saakski kunagi järgmiseks.”

https://epl.delfi.ee/artikkel/96243421/juhtkiri-tegutseme-et-baltimaad-ei-saaks-jargmiseks

Kallas tippkohtumisel: vajame Eestisse NATO diviisi ja õhukaitset

(Postimees)

“Eesti kaitseks vajame lahinguvalmis NATO diviisi, mis koosneb Eesti enda ja liitlaste üksustest ning juhtimisstruktuurist. Samuti vajame tugevamat õhukaitset. Kaitsevalmiduse esimene eesmärk on sõda ära hoida ning vajadusel igasugune rünnakukatse koheselt tagasi lüüa,” selgitas Kallas.”

https://www.postimees.ee/7484896/kallas-tippkohtumisel-vajame-eestisse-nato-diviisi-ja-ohukaitset

“Estonia to allocate additional €500 million for its defence capabilities.” - Estonian World

“Estonia is calling for Nato to abandon its “tripwire” posture.” - Guardian

“Ükski NATO maa ei soovi Ukrainas sõtta sekkuda.” - Postimees

“Biden: NATO tugevdab oma idatiiba.” - ERR

“NATO 'never been more united’.” - Deutsche Welle

“Stoltenberg jääb erakorraliselt veel aastaks NATO juhina ametisse.” - Postimees

“Kaja Kallas: We need to keep providing critical military aid to Ukraine.” Estonian World

“Kuus tähele­panekut NATO tipp­kohtumise eel.” - Postimees

“How Kremlin Dictators Keep NATO Alive.” - The Bulwark

“Valitsus kinnitas neljapäeval 600-miljonilise kaitsepaketi.” - ERR

“NATO bolsters collective defenses.” - Deutsche Welle

“Estonia receives first NATO multinational ammunition warehouse.” - NATO

“Heremi sõnul on Eestil kavas osta laevatõrjeraketid ja mitmikraketiheitjad.” - ERR

“Estonian Prime Minister: 'Putin must not win this war’.” - CNN

“Estonian women learn to fight.” - Reuters

Statement by NATO Heads of State and Government, 24. March 2022

(NATO Summit, Brussels)

“We condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the strongest possible terms. We call on President Putin to immediately stop this war and withdraw military forces from Ukraine, and call on Belarus to end its complicity, in line with the Aggression Against Ukraine Resolution adopted at the UN General Assembly of 2 March 2022. … etc.”

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_193719.htm

Sillamäe’s renewal: from radioactive cleanup to recycling jobs

(Christian Science Monitor)

“For years, this now-important industrial town was shrouded in mystery, reeling from its past as a secret uranium enrichment city. By the time the USSR collapsed, a major Soviet industrial capital had become a radioactive depository with a large, unemployed, mostly Russian-speaking population. But Tõnis Kaasik – environmental activist, Estonia’s first minister of the environment, and a green entrepreneur – gave the region, and its people, a new lease on life.”

—

“In independent Estonia he spearheaded the effort to rid Sillamäe of its radioactive legacy, guided by a “great sense of ‘the Soviets did this terrible thing to our country, and we would really like to heal those wounds,’” says Cheryl Rofer, a retired chemist from Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, whom Mr. Kaasik invited to the radioactive site in Sillamäe in 1998. She was instrumental in helping to get NATO to participate in its remediation.”

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Making-a-difference/2022/0322/A-secret-town-s-renewal-from-radioactive-cleanup-to-recycling-jobs?cmpid=shared-email

Estonia Pledges Support for Russians in it’s North-East Region

By Ott Tammik, Bloomberg

“The Estonian government pledged to invest in roads, schools and jobs in the nation’s largely Russian-speaking northeast in a show of support for a region that the invasion of Ukraine has put under the microscope.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-22/estonia-pledges-cash-support-for-russians-in-eu-nation-s-east

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It's Putin’s War

__________

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, 25. March 2022

(ISW)

[ISW produces excellent, detailed, open-source intelligence analysis.]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-19

Putin ‘at risk of coup’ by Russia’s FSB?

(The Times, 23. March)

“The risk of coup by the Federal Security Service (FSB) against President Putin is growing every week that the war in Ukraine continues, a whistleblower at the heart of Russian intelligence has said. The whistleblower has told Vladimir Osechkin, who is on Russia’s most-wanted list for his work in exposing abuse in prisons, that chaos and discontent have engulfed the security services after the botched invasion of Ukraine.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-war-putin-at-risk-of-coup-by-russian-security-services-vm6qgxtnp

“Putin Has Coup-Proofed His Regime.” - Foreign Policy

“Russia’s security services have tried to topple its leaders before.” - Washington Post

Zelensky: "Never tell us again our army does not meet NATO standards”

(Axios)

“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the NATO summit via video link, telling the alliance: "Never, please, never tell us again that our army does not meet NATO standards. We have shown what our standards are capable of. And how much we can give to the common security in Europe and the world.”

—

“Zelensky criticized NATO for declining to establish a no-fly zone or provide Ukraine with fighter jets or tanks, saying the lack of a "clear answer" is leading to mass death and the destruction of Ukrainian cities. He demanded specific weapons — tanks, fighter jets, multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS), anti-ship weapons and air defense systems — and warned that Russia "does not intend and will not" stop at Ukraine.”

https://www.axios.com/nato-g7-eu-summits-biden-ukraine-russia-be6f13d9-3c42-4699-b8d1-d1d5e08a16cc.html

“God has left Mariupol.” - The Guardian

“Ukraina suurendab vasturünnakuid, Venemaa jätkab tiibrakettide kasutamist.” - ERR

“Putin may ramp up his war in Ukraine – here’s how Nato should respond.” - The Guardian

“Moscow Losing Battle for Hearts and Minds of Russians, Russian Specialist on Military Propaganda Says.” - Paul Goble

Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu resurfaces on TV – but for just a few seconds.” - The Guardian

“Ukraine sinks Russian ship as Moscow accused of forcible deportations.” - The Guardian

“Russia could have lost as many as 15,000 troops in Ukraine war, NATO official estimates.” - Washington Post

“Kiiev: Moskva koondab Valgevenesse relvastust ja plaanib suurt pealetungi.” - ERR

“Dissent Brews Over Putin’s Leadership.” - New York Times

“Pravdamail.com: Goal is peace in Ukraine and Europe.” - Estonian World

“The war is costing Russia as much as $20 billion a day, by some estimates.” - Lawfare

“Wounded Russian soldiers fill Belarusian hospitals.” - DW

“Belarus being dragged closer to a war that most of its citizens don’t want.” - Guardian

“Across Russia, Security Forces Act On Putin's Condemnation Of 'Scum And Traitors’.” - RFERL

“Venemaal kakeldakse suhkru, rahustite ja kondoomide pärast.” - Postimees

“Worried Russians Stockpile Medicine As Supplies Run Thin And Prices Rise.” - RFERL

“From Chechnya to Crimea, Putin Saw Green Light.” - Just Security

“How Putin Bungled His Invasion of Ukraine.” - Foreign Policy

“Would Putin Strike the Arctic Next?” - 1945

The Russians Fleeing Putin’s Wartime Crackdown

By Masha Gessen, The New Yorker

“People have fled Russia because they fear political persecution, conscription, and isolation; because they dread being locked in an unfamiliar new country that eerily resembles the old Soviet Union; and because staying in a country that is waging war feels immoral, like being inside a plane that’s dropping bombs on people. They have left because the Russia they have built and inhabited is disappearing—and the more people who leave, the faster it disappears. …”

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/03/28/the-russians-fleeing-putins-wartime-crackdown

“Tens of thousands of people are leaving Russia.” - CBC

“Allegro train will stop running between Saint Petersburg and Helsinki on Monday.” - Yle

“Soome raudteefirma lõpetab rongiliikluse Helsingi-Peterburi raudteel.” - ERR

“Because of Putin’s War, Russian Children Feel Their Future is Being Taken Away from Them.” - Paul Goble

Ukrainlased võisid sõjasaagiks saada tõeliselt hea luuretehnika

(Postimees)

“Twitteri kasutaja Ukraina Weapons Tracker (Ukraina relvade jälgija) andis teada, et Ukraina kätte on sattunud konteinerauto väga uuendusliku elektroonilise sõjapidamise süsteemiga, millega on võimalik teha suurepärast luuretööd ja isegi vaenlase süsteeme hävitada. … Kui see on tõesti Krasuhha-4 süsteem, võib avastus osutuda tõeliseks aardeleiuks. See võib paljastada Venemaa võime häirida NATO süsteeme. Eriti huvitav on küsimus, kui tõhus on see NATO seireradarite vastu. NATO varajase hoiatamise süsteem põhineb suuresti neil.”

https://elu24.postimees.ee/7484624/ukrainlased-voisid-sojasaagiks-saada-toeliselt-hea-luuretehnika

Ukraine captures Russian Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system

(The Aviationist | other sources)

“… the 1RL257 Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system is used to suppress AWACS radars & radar reconnaissance satellites. [Reportedly having been ‘tested’ on NATO military equipment. … The Krasukha-4 was found abandoned on the outskirts of Kyiv. This is perhaps the most valuable system that the Ukrainians have been able to seize so far …”

https://theaviationist.com/2022/03/23/ukrainian-captured-krasukha-4/

—

https://interestingengineering.com/ukraine-captures-russian-ew-system

—

https://eurasiantimes.com/setback-for-moscow-ukraine-seizes-sophisticated-russian-weapons-system-that-could-give-kyiv-critical-edge-in-the-war/

“Tech: The 1RL257 KRASUKHA-4 truck-mounted broadband jamming station.” - Army Recognition

Lessons From Finland For Ukraine And Its Foreign Legion

(War on the Rocks)

“Finland’s use of legionnaires during the Winter War suggests how these volunteers not only provide a boost to the combat effort, but can also serve to rally the international community.”

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/lessons-from-finland-for-ukraine-and-its-foreign-legion/

__________

Ukraine Refugees

__________

Neljapäeval tuli Eestisse 681 Ukraina sõjapõgenikku

(ERR)

“… kellest 226 olid lapsed. 170 inimest olid transiidil ehk nemad soovivad Eestist edasi liikuda. Kokku on Eesti alates 27. veebruarist vastu võtnud 23,135 Ukraina sõjapõgenikku.”

https://www.err.ee/1608543841/neljapaeval-tuli-eestisse-681-ukraina-sojapogenikku

“Estonia to temporarily house Ukrainian war refugees on cruise ship.” - ERR

“Ukrainian refugee teachers finding work in Estonian schools.” - ERR

“Finland expecting arrival of 40-80k Ukrainians.” - Yle

“How many Ukrainians have fled their homes and where did they go?” - BBC

“More than half of Ukraine's children displaced since Russia's invasion, says UNICEF.” - Euronews

“An Exodus From Ukraine: a Visual Diary.” - Mother Jones

“EU to release €3.4 billion to help countries absorb refugees from Ukraine.” - Politico Europe

“Warsaw straining under weight of more than 300,000 refugees.” - BBC

“U.S. to welcome up to 100,000 Ukrainians fleeing war.” - Reuters

“Ukrainian Jews seek refuge in Israel.” - Deutsche Welle

__________

Wednesday 23. March

Russian minority in Estonia turns its back on Putin

By Pekka Vanttinen, Euractiv

“Many ethnic Russians in Estonia who used to be loyal to Vladimir Putin are now questioning their allegiance following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. About 25% are still “Putinists” while the same amount has decided to support Ukraine. However, around 50% are in shock following the events …”

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/russian-minority-in-estonia-turns-its-back-on-putin/

“I feel anxiety and anger – there are Putin’s supporters in my class.” - Postimees

“Russians in Latvia split over Putin’s war.” - CBC News

Report from Narva: Estonians on edge due to the Ukraine invasion

By Hans von der Brelie, Euronews

“Over 70 per cent of people in the eastern region of Estonia are native Russian speakers. In Narva, the Estonian city bordering Russia, it is over 90 per cent. Are they loyal to Estonia? Yes or no? In the streets of the town, I opt for a provocative, straightforward question: Where do you want to live? Where does Narva belong? In Estonia or Russia?”

https://www.euronews.com/2022/03/22/ukraine-invasion-puts-estonians-on-edge

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine provides ‘greater focus’ for NATO in the Baltics

(CNBC)

“CNBC’s Silvia Amaro reports from the Tapa military base.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/russias-invasion-of-ukraine-has-given-nato-troops-a-greater-focus.html

—

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/03/18/nato-has-been-stepping-up-its-presence-in-eastern-europe-amid-russia-ukraine-war.html

Israel blocked sale of Pegasus spyware to Ukraine, Estonia

(Jerusalem Post)

“Israel rejected purchase request for NSO's Pegasus spyware from Ukraine and Estonia out of concern for Israeli-Russian relations.”

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-702110

“Israel, Fearing Russian Reaction, Blocked Spyware for Ukraine and Estonia.” - New York Times

Estonia fights back against pro-Russia messaging

(Politico-Europe)

“For Estonia’s government, damage done to societal cohesion by pro-Kremlin messaging targeting Russian speakers could have security implications, experts say. “Societal cohesion is one of the prerequisites for a nation to be resilient, so it is not enough to have a lot of military power — like NATO allies in your country — society must also be cohesive to be resilient during a crisis,” said Dmitri Teperik, chief executive of the Tallinn-based think tank the International Centre for Defence and Security.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/estonia-fight-back-pro-russia-propaganda/

Estonia considering building LNG terminal in Paldiski

(ERR)

“The establishing of this terminal would be important above all from an energy security perspective, which is also why the state is willing to financially support the project. According to electricity and gas system operator Elering CEO Taavi Veskimägi, an LNG terminal can only be built once Estonia has resolved to stop importing Russian natural gas. No such decision has yet been made, however.”

https://news.err.ee/1608539902/estonia-considering-building-lng-terminal-in-paldiski

And Finally:

Europe After the Ukraine War

(Lawfare)

“Even if Russia ekes out some sort of operational win in Ukraine, in the sense of capturing territory or coercing concessions, its victory will almost certainly be a pyrrhic one. While reports vary, it is evident that the Ukrainians have already inflicted substantial casualties on the Russian military and will likely continue to do so as Western military aid flows into the country. The war is costing Russia as much as $20 billion a day, by some estimates. …”

—

“:But an enfeebled Russia may not equate to a less dangerous one. Assuming the Putin regime remains in place—not necessarily a given—a cornered, isolated and aggrieved Russia actually may be more likely to lash out violently than a content one. Particularly, if President Vladimir Putin believes his own safety or the stability of his regime is under threat, he may be more inclined to gamble for resurrection and engage in risky behaviors to reverse his fortunes.”

https://www.lawfareblog.com/europe-after-ukraine-war

Alexander Dugin, ‘Putin’s brain’, envisions the splitting of Europe

(Washington Post)

“… Putin delivered a long and rambling discourse denying the existence of Ukraine and Ukrainians, a speech many Western analysts found strange and untethered. Strange, yes. Untethered, no. The analysis came directly from the works of a fascist prophet of maximal Russian empire named Aleksandr Dugin.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/22/alexander-dugin-author-putin-deady-playbook/

“Aleksandr Dugin: The sinister ideologue who's Putin's favourite philosopher.” - The Jewish Chronicle, 11. March

“Aleksandr Dugin Is the Reactionary Prophet of Russian Ultranationalism.” - Jacobin Magazine, 22. March

“Alexander Dugin: A Russian fascist who helped convince Putin to invade.” - Independent Australia, 13. March

“Aleksandr Dugin, Putin’s putative mad philosopher” - The American Conservative, 4. March

Russian crew aboard superyacht possibly linked to Putin, abruptly left their jobs

(New York Times)

“They were replaced by a British crew,” said Paolo Gozzani, the local leader of Italy’s General Confederation of Labor trade union, on Wednesday. “I don’t know and don’t care whether the yacht is indeed Putin’s or not, but I worry about the repercussions on shipyard workers if police impound or confiscate the vessel.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/24/world/europe/russia-superyacht-crew-putin.html

“Navalny Supporters Claim To Have Evidence Of Putin Superyacht.” - RFERL

“Finnish Customs has detained 21 yachts possibly owned by oligarchs.” - Helsinki Times

“What makes these billionaires' toys the ultimate climate killers?” - Deutsche Welle

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