✔︎ "On Sunday [25. Nov.], Russia attacked Ukrainian military vessels on the Azov Sea. We must use the right terms: this is war in Europe. The Ukrainian people have been engaged in war since 2014 and the Crimean peninsula is still under occupation."
- President Kersti Kaljulaid
✔︎ "It’s the first time that the Russian military has attacked Ukrainian armed forces under Russian flags.”
- Taras Berezovets, Ukrainian activist, regarding the Azov Sea attack
✔︎ A special Brexit news list is at the end of the newsletter
✔︎ What I'm reading: “The Road to Unfreedom" by Timothy Snyder
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- Archive:
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Friday
30. November
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- Ukraina: Vene hävitaja ja kopter tulistasid meie laevu rakettidega
(Postimees)
"SBU ülema asetäitja Oleh Frolov ütles neljapäeval ajakirjanikele, et Vene hävitaja Su-30 ja ründekopter Ka-52 tulistasid laevade pihta neli raketti. "Ime, et Ukraina meremehed ellu jäid."
- Merkel lubas Kertši väina konflikti tõstatada Putiniga G20 kohtumisel
(ERR)
"Saksamaa kantsler süüdistas viimases pingetekitamises Venemaad, kuid ei poolda veel sanktsioonide kehtestamist. Enne on tema sõnul vaja faktid üle vaadata …"
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| Map graphic: The Guardian |
- Putin's Not-Quite-All-Out War on Ukraine Has Gone from Simmering to Explosive
(The Daily Beast)
Crimea
"We now know, because Putin would later admit it on state television, that in 2014 at the height of Ukraine’s revolution, on the very day in February when Putin’s ally, President Viktor Yanukovych, fled the country, Putin ordered his commanders “to begin work on returning Crimea to Russia. … And within days of Yanukovych’s departure, the peninsula was full of “little green men”—in fact burly soldiers wearing masks and unmarked uniforms—with the newest communication equipment and Russian weaponry. They controlled a hasty referendum in Crimea, and unsurprisingly a majority of voters supported merging with Russia.”
Donbas
"A few weeks after Crimea was annexed, masked men in new green uniforms appeared in the largely industrial region of eastern Ukraine known as Donbas, and a war began between Ukrainian and Russia-backed rebel forces, including Russian recruits and Russian army officers who officially were “on holiday.”
Sea of Azov
"What happened on Sunday was one more milestone—and potentially the most dangerous—in this now five-year-old, undeclared war. … More than 24 hours after Russian forces captured those three Ukrainian gunboats the West had not demonstrated any significant support for Kiev, (Moscow municipal deputy and opposition leader Ilya) Yashin noted. “That is exactly what Putin counted on.”"
- EU, NATO React Coolly To Ukraine's Call For New Moves Against Russia
(RFERL)
"A NATO spokeswoman said on November 29 that the military alliance already has a strong presence in the Black Sea region where the incident occurred, and it has no plans to send warships into the Sea of Azov, which lies between Ukrainian and Russian territory, as requested by Poroshenko on November 28."
"Unknown Number of the 24 Captured Ukrainian Sailors Transferred to Moscow.”
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- Kyiv closing its borders to Russian men
(Deutsche Welle)
- Ukrainian border service switched to the first level of full combat readiness
(Politico-Europe)
- Putin Pushes Russia-Ukraine Tensions to a Four-Year High
(Foreign Policy)
- Baltic defense ministers agree to raise defense spending above 2% of GDP
(Baltic Times)
"Latvian Defense Minister Raimonds Bergmanis, Raimundas Karoblis and Estonian Defense Minister Juri Luik signed a joint communique today, expressing the commitment to raise defense spending above two percent of GDP. … The communique also expressed support for military cooperation with Great Britain after Brexit."
- Estonia and the Kindness of Strangers
(The American Interest)
"Estonia has expertly played the hand it has been given by history, building a model small democratic nation in the 20th century. But its size and geography mean its fate is still not in its own hands."
- Swedish Pilots Win Medals for Declassified 1987 SR-71 Incident over the Baltic Sea
(Multiple sources)
"The Blackbird had suffered an engine failure during a mission over the Baltic Sea and its crew feared that Soviet jets might be hunting for them.”
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"The incident happened in 1987 in the skies over the Baltic Sea. Back then, SR-71 Blackbirds based at RAF Mildenhall in the United Kingdom flew weekly missions [termed the “Baltic Express”] out over the Baltic Sea, toward Soviet bases in Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Kaliningrad. The SR-71s flew a loop that took them across the length of the Baltic States, then back around and in between the Swedish mainland and the island of Gotland. …"
—
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- Rootsi piloodid kaitsesid 1987. aastal Baltimaade kohalt naasnud mootoririkkega USA luurelennukit SR-71
(Delfi)
- Ukraine once gave up USSR nukes
(Euronews | others)
"Twenty five years ago, Ukraine was the world's third-largest nuclear power, with more warheads than the United Kingdom, France and China combined. The government in Kiev inherited this arsenal after the breakup of the Soviet Union, finding itself in possession of an estimated 5,000 nuclear weapons, more than 170 intercontinental ballistic missiles and several dozen nuclear bombers.”
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"In 1994, Ukraine agreed to dismantle this stockpile in return for a promise from Russia that the country wouldn't be attacked. … When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, it was widely accepted that this agreement had been violated. After this week's clash on the Black Sea, Ukraine used the memorandum as a rallying cry."
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- Moscow Pushing Ukraine toward Becoming a Nuclear Power
(Window on Eurasia)
"Despite Russian military actions, Ukraine has shown itself unprepared for total war, hoping against hope that the West will come to its rescue. But ever more open Russian aggression and ever greater recognition in Ukraine that the West isn’t going to may soon force Ukrainians to consider what they have to do on their own to avoid total defeat."
- Putin Is Perfecting His Border Plan
(Foreign Policy)
"While the Western media were focused on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s violent escalation of his conflict with Ukraine, another nation on Russia’s border, Georgia, voted in a run-off presidential election on Wednesday that will help determine its own geopolitical direction: Moscow, or the West."
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"Though the Georgian election got far less attention, both events were critical tests of the Russian leader’s relentless efforts to resurrect, as best he can, a sphere of influence over the former Soviet republics—and with a dazzling array of methods such as creeping annexation, stealthy assassination, and digitally undermining democracy everywhere."
Euronews speaks to Georgia’s new President-elect, Salome Zurabishvili
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Thursday
29. November
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- Hädad võidusambaga: remont juubeliaastal kestab tuleva aasta veebruarini
(ERR)
"Riigi Kinnisvara Aktsiaseltsi (RKAS) kommunikatsioonijuht Mariliis Sepper ütles ERR-ile, et Vabadussõja võidusambal vahetatakse välja kõik samba ristiosas paiknevad, põhipinnalt eenduvad matistatud klaasdetailid. "Täpsemalt siis risti embleem, embleemi ümbritsev ring, risti äärised ja risti keskosas paiknevad detailid nii Komandandi tee kui Vabaduse väljaku poolt. ..."
- Estonia summons Russian ambassador over Ukraine
(Fox News)
"The Estonian Foreign Ministry says Aleksandr Petrov was told that Russia must immediately return the three vessels and release the crew. … Estonia has reacted sharply to the events near Crimea, with President Kersti Kaljulaid saying Tuesday the attack constitutes "war in Europe."
- Russia-Ukraine: Storm warning on the Black Sea
(Deutsche Welle)
- Wave Of Disinformation From The Azov Sea
(EU vs Disinfo)
"Russian propaganda largely relies on four tactics: to distort, distract, dismiss and dismay.” [All four were in use this week.]
- Crimea Annexation 2.0
(Carnegie Europe)
"Similar to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Western powers have been confined to watching events from the sidelines without finding an effective response—so far."
http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/77828?lang=en
- Martial law in ten regions of Ukraine
(Centre for Eastern Studies)
- In Ukraine, it’s no longer about little green men
(Politico-Europe)
"Russia’s recent aggression in the Azov Sea was predictable. For those of us following events in Ukraine, it was not a question of whether Moscow would try to cut off the Kerch Strait between Russia and Crimea, but when. Even before last weekend’s minor sea battle between Russian and Ukrainian warships, Ukrainian media had been reporting an increase in intense inspections of civilian cargo ships of all flags going to its largest ports, Mariupol and Berdyansk — both major export ports for steel and grain — since February."
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Wednesday
28. November
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- President Kaljulaid: We cannot silently consent to Russia’s aggression in the Sea of Azov
(Office of the President)
"On Sunday, Russia attacked Ukrainian military vessels on the Azov Sea. We must use the right terms: this is war in Europe. The Ukrainian people have been engaged in war since 2014 and the Crimean peninsula is still under occupation."
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"I urge the international community and the democratic world leaders to join me in this statement, to condemn the Russian aggression clearly, collectively and immediately, and demand a stop to the agression. Silent acknowledgement means de facto recognition of the occupation of the Crimean peninsula. The value-based international community cannot allow itself to adopt such a stance. War in Europe will not, shall not and cannot ever again be accepted as business as usual."
- President Kaljulaid: Venemaa sõjalise agressiooniga Aasovi merel ei tohi vaikimisi leppida
(Vabariigi Presidendi Kantselei)
„Pühapäeval ründas Venemaa Aasovi merel Ukraina sõjalaevu. Me peame nimetama asju õigete nimedega – see on sõda Euroopas. Ukraina rahvas on olnud sõjas alates 2014. aastast ja Krimm on jätkuvalt okupeeritud.
--
Kutsun rahvusvahelist kogukonda ja demokraatliku maailma liidreid üles minuga selles avalduses ühinema ning selgelt, üheselt ja viivitamatult Venemaa agressiooni hukka mõistma ning nõudma selle lõpetamist. Juhtunu vaikiv tunnistamine tähendab de facto Krimmi okupeerimise tunnustamist. Seda ei saa väärtuspõhine rahvusvaheline kogukond endale lubada. Sõda Euroopas ei tohi ega saa enam ühelgi ajahetkel olla aktsepteeritud kui asjade tavapärane seis.“
Declaration by the EU regarding the escalating tensions in the Azov Sea
(Council of the EU)
- Niinistö urges Russia to allow unimpeded passage to Kerch Strait
(Helsinki Times)
"President Sauli Niinistö says the international community must react to recent developments on the Kerch Strait, a strait connecting the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, without delay."
- Trump canceled Putin meeting, cites Ukraine crisis
(Reuters)
Russia Doubts Trump’s Reason for Canceling Putin Meeting
(The Daily Beast)
“… with Russia’s foreign ministry hinting the real reason was because of the crisis consuming the White House."
- Arvamus: Kertši kriis on ohtlikum kui Krimmi kriis
(Postimees)
"Krimmi annekteerimisel üritas Kreml oma tegevust vähemalt maskeerida, nüüd on agressioon aga häbenematu ja avalik …"
- EL nõuab Venemaalt Ukraina laevade ja meremeeste vabastamist
(ERR)
"Selles kontekstis me kutsume Venemaad üles tingimusteta ja viivitamatult vabastama kinni peetud alused, nende meeskonnad ja varustuse," seisab avalduses."
- Kertši Blog
(Postimees)
- Putin peab Kertši intsidenti tühiseks piiritüliks
(ERR)
"Venemaa viib seoses Kertši väina vahejuhtumiga Krimmi poolsaarele veel moodsaid õhutõrjesüsteeme. Ukraina mitmes piirkonnas aga hakkas kehtima sõjaseisukord. Venemaa presidendi Vladimir Putini hinnangul oli kolme Ukraina sõjalaeva tulistamine ning arestimine tühine piiritüli."
- Mikser soovib Venemaa suhtes uusi sanktsioone
(ERR)
"Seoses Kertši väinas toimunuga on juba esitatud üleskutseid kehtestada Venemaa suhtes täiendavaid piiravaid meetmeid. Nagu olen viimaste päevade jooksul öelnud, on tegemist on Venemaa-poolse rahvusvahelise õiguse ränga rikkumisega, millel peavad olema tagajärjed. Selles kontekstis pean õigeks täiendavate piiravate meetmete kehtestamist ja täna kehtivate sanktsioonide pikendamist Venemaa suhtes."
- ‘Putin is in control’
(Politico)
"By the time Western officials had figured out what and where the Kerch Strait was, the Russian leader had sewn up his naval operation, taking around two dozen Ukrainian sailors prisoner (shooting and wounding at least three of them), and impounded their vessels. Not bad for a Sunday outing.”
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"Meanwhile, over in the EU cocoon, Germans debated whether the United Nations refugee compact would be legally binding and the French squabbled over the price of gasoline. And the U.S.? Lost somewhere in Trumpland. …"
- Russian Caspian Flotilla’s Capacity to Project Force Threatens Littoral States and Ukraine
(Jamestown Org.)
"The Caspian Flotilla has not attracted significant Western attention up to now (Russia’s use of Caspian-based ships to fire cruise missiles at targets in Syria over the last few years notwithstanding—see EDM, October 26, 2015). Yet, Moscow has increasingly been flaunting its naval capacity there—especially the ability of its ships not only to conduct naval operations but also to put troops on land to seize or defend positions."
- Containing the Kerch Crisis
(Carnegie Moscow)
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| AP Photo: Kerch Bridge |
- Opinion: Will Trump let Russia take the Azov Sea?
(Washington Post)
- Strategic Implications of Russia and Ukraine’s Naval Clash
(Jamestown Org.)
- Martial Law in Ukraine: A Presidential Pyrrhic Victory?
(Carnegie Moscow)
- Martial law imposed in nearly half of Ukraine
(Euromaidan)
- Behind the Ukraine-Russia naval tensions, a more brutal economic war
(Christian Science Monitor)
“Very little attention has been paid to the economic slugfest between the two, which has caused far more destruction than Russia's sanctions war with the West over the past five years, and will leave lasting consequences even if they manage to resolve the present, seemingly intractable, political conflict."
- Petro Poroshenko says Moscow massing troops at border as Crimean court orders sailors detained for two months
(The Guardian)
- Poroshenko reportedly tried to talk to Putin after detention of Ukrainian naval vessels
(Kyiv Post)
- In Sea of Azov, Russia Again Tests Its Strength
(Chatham House)
"The recent skirmish with Ukrainian vessels is part of the Kremlin’s long-term efforts to destabilize Ukraine and consolidate its control over Crimea."
- Peipsi järvistul liikumiseks kehtestati piirangud
(Lõuna Leht)
- Russian delegation visits Estonia to inspect military facilities within OSCE framework
(Pro-Kremlin TASS)
- Vostok-2018 strateegiliste sõjaliste õppuste analüüs: alternatiivne vaatenurk
(Diplomaatia - 15. nov.)
"Suured sõjaväeõppused paljastasid Vene armee mitmeid nõrku kohti."
https://diplomaatia.ee/vostok-2018-strateegiliste-sojaliste-oppuste-analuus-alternatiivne-vaatenurk/
- Open Source Monitoring of NATO Trident Juncture Exercises
(Bellingcat - 6. Nov.)
[The author shows how a military operation such as the recent exercises in Norway can easily be monitored by satellite, social media, and Instagram geotagging.]
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Tuesday
27. November
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- Estonia condemns Russian attack on Ukrainian vessels in Kerch Strait
(ERR | Interfax)
"Prime Minister Jüri Ratas called the actions a "serious breach of international law."
"Estonia condemns Russia's attack against Ukrainian vessels in Azov Sea and Kerch Strait and calls on immediate release of the ships. These actions violate both international law and Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, a conscious act to escalate tension.” - Estonian Foreign Minister Sven Mikser
"World reacts to Russia's attack near Kerch Strait."
- How Estonia became centre of Danske money-laundering scandal
(Financial Times)
"Head of country’s regulator does not pull any punches as he criticises Danish bank.”
- Voter confidence in electoral process highest in Estonia
(Emerging Europe)
"A new Eurobarometer survey ahead of next May’s European elections has revealed that a majority of EU citizens are worried that disinformation campaigns, data breaches and cyberattacks will interfere with electoral processes. Interestingly, both some of the highest and – thanks to Estonia – lowest percentages of those concerned about electoral manipulation are found in emerging Europe countries. Estonia – where around 30 per cent of votes are cast online – performs well in all of the categories, a clear sign that the country’s investment in cybersecurity over the past decade has resulted in increased confidence in the electoral process."
- NATO Beyond 70: Renewing a Culture of Readiness
(ICDS - pdf report)
"This analysis summarises the defence-policy related decisions of the Brussels summit to direct and guide NATO’s further adaptation, in particular further strengthening deterrence and defence, explains their rationale, and places them into the overall political and strategic context."
- Opinion: Russia Attacks Ukrainian Ships and International Law
(New York Times Editorial Board)
"Russia’s attack on Ukrainian naval vessels in the Black Sea was a violation of international law and a dangerous escalation of the undeclared war the Kremlin has waged for more than four years against Ukraine in Crimea, in the breakaway provinces of eastern Ukraine, and now at sea. …"
- Opinion: Russia’s escalation against Ukraine shows how little Putin worries about the West
(Washington Post)
"At a minimum, Mr. Putin’s aggression ought to affect the reception he receives from Mr. Trump at the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires. The Kremlin said Monday that a meeting between the two leaders was “being prepared” regardless of the naval attack, though the White House did not confirm that. Mr. Trump could send a message by refusing to meet Mr. Putin; if he does go ahead with a bilateral meeting, he ought to begin it by telling the Russian leader that his assault on Ukraine is unacceptable and will have consequences. A failure to do so would simply confirm Mr. Putin’s evident belief that further aggression against Ukraine will cost him nothing with this U.S. president."
- Trump refuses to condemn Russian aggression against Ukraine
(CNN)
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Monday
26. November
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- Estonian Cyber Command: What Is It For?
(ICDS)
"Over the years, Estonia has maintained a leading position in developing NATO’s cyber defence policy. … In August 2018, the Estonian Defence Forces launched a cyber command, whose mission is to defend the country’s information systems and to assist NATO allies, and to prepare for conducting active cyber defence operations."
- Ukraine Is Accusing Russia of Attacking and Seizing Three of its Ships in the Black Sea
(Mother Jones | RFERL)
"The Ukrainian Navy says Russian forces opened fire on a group of its ships in the Black Sea off the coast of the Crimean Peninsula late on November 25, striking two warships and wounding two crew members before seizing the vessels along with a Ukrainian Navy tugboat."
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- Otseblogi: Konflikt Aasovi merel
(Delfi)
- Russia restores passage via Kerch Strait after seizing Ukrainian vessels
(BNN | Deutsche Welle)
https://bnn-news.com/russia-restores-passage-via-kerch-strait-after-seizing-ukrainian-vessels-194263
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- What martial law in Ukraine could mean for nation
(Kyiv Post)
- How To Respond To Moscow’s Azov Escalation
(CEPA)
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BREXIT
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- Briti parlament hääletab Brexiti-leppe üle enne jõule
(Postimees)
"Täna Brüsselis toimunud Euroopa Liidu 27 liikmesriigi riigipea ja valitsusjuhi erakorralisel kohtumisel kiideti heaks Ühendkuningriigi Euroopa Liidust väljaastumisleping ning edasiste suhete deklaratsioon.”
https://www.postimees.ee/6454218/brexiti-blogi-briti-parlament-haaletab-brexiti-leppe-ule-enne-joule
- EU leaders sign off 'tragic' divorce with Britain
(Deutsche Welle | NY Magazine)
"Leaders of 27 European Union nations on Sunday endorsed an agreement detailing the terms and conditions on which Britain will leave the bloc on March 19, 2019. … But British PM Theresa May still needs to get the deal approved from the UK parliament.”
—
"Negotiations continued up to the last minute on the 585-page withdrawal agreement, which has drawn fierce criticism from euroskeptics as well as pro-EU politicians in Britain."
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- http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/11/may-and-eu-reach-agreement-on-brexit-deal-nobody-wants.html
- Bank and Treasury predictions showing UK would be better off within EU undermine PM’s position
(The Guardian)
- Brexit: Juncker warns British MPs against voting down May's deal
(The Guardian)
"In an uncompromising and direct message to Westminster, the European commission president claimed the bloc had made its final offer. “I am totally convinced that this is the only deal possible,” Juncker said.”
—
"Without need for discussion, the 27 member states unanimously backed the terms of the voluminous draft withdrawal treaty, covering citizens’ rights, the £39bn divorce bill and the solution for the Irish border, along with a 26-page political declaration setting out the basis of the future relationship.”
- Brexit deal to be debated for five days ahead of parliament vote
(Euronews)
"Commons Speaker John Bercow can select up to six ammendments to the deal for these discussions, ahead of the December 11 vote."
https://www.euronews.com/2018/11/28/brexit-deal-to-be-debated-for-five-days-ahead-of-parliament-vote
- Opinion: The Brexit road to Britain’s collapse
(Financial Times)
"If all this were not so deadly serious it would be laughably absurd. In truth, the big danger is of the absurdity obscuring the seriousness. Britain is dismantling an economic and political relationship with its own continent that has been more than 40 years in the making. EU membership is woven into the fabric of the nation. It has been a vital pillar of foreign policy. Brexit means Brexit, Mrs May said a while ago. Her own party has yet to agree on what she meant."
- Who becomes the U.S.'s best friend after Britain leaves the E.U.?
(Washington Post)
"A once-indispensable proxy in Europe no longer has clout that it can exercise on Washington’s behalf. Britain’s exit from the E.U. will force a broad realignment of Europe and will probably put in play a number of issues — from sanctions on Russia to free trade to military strategy — that are critical to the United States."
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“Having had the U.K. in made it easy for us. We were on the phone all the time. We were aligned ideologically in almost every way,” said Anthony Gardner, the U.S. ambassador to the European Union under President Barack Obama. “That was our go-to country.”
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