"For Estonia, the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO means that the security situation in Northern Europe would strengthen. … The problem of the Suwalki corridor or the Suwalki narrowing will be significantly reduced, security of supply will improve and we will actually have an ally with a very, very strong army with which we are much stronger militarily.”
- Sven Sakkov, Estonian Ambassador to Finland, 3. May 2022 (translated)
Soome ja Rootsi liitumisel NATO-ga Suwalki kitsuse probleem leeveneks
(ERR, 3. Mai)
“Eesti suursaadik Soomes Sven Sakkov ütles, et kui Soome ja Rootsi NATO-ga liituvad, muutuks Kaliningradi sõjaline väärtus Venemaa jaoks hoopis probleemiks ning Suwalki kitsuse mure leeveneks. Sakkov rääkis "Esimeses stuudios", et Eesti jaoks tähendab Soome ja Rootsi liitumine NATO-ga seda, et Põhja-Euroopas julgeolekuolukord tugevneks.”
__________
New 2-euro coin
(Eesti Pank Press Release)
https://www.eestipank.ee/en/press/two-euro-coin-ukraine-will-use-design-student-refugee-war-05052022
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Friday 6. May
Kaja Kallas in Finland: Russia's "intimidation, threats" not to be feared
(Yle)
"What I want to say is that, yes they [Russia] wants to threaten, but the only thing we have to fear is fear itself," Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said during a visit to Helsinki on Friday. She added that Estonia, unlike Finland, was under occupation by the Soviet Union for five decades."We have been dealing with Russian provocations for a long time.”
https://yle.fi/news/3-12435052
Sweden and Finland collect NATO assurances as application decision looms
(Politico Europe)
“Sweden and Finland’s NATO debate went on tour this week, with officials performing a carefully choreographed diplomatic dance ahead of a potential joint bid in the coming days to join the military alliance.”
“Venemaa üritab Soomet NATO-st eemale hirmutada.” - ERR
“Left Alliance minister confirms support for Nato membership.” - Yle
“Pro-Russian convoy demonstration to take place in Helsinki region on Sunday.” - Helsinki Times
“120 UK troops have been training alongside Finnish allies on Exercise Arrow 22.” - Forces Net
“NATO maritime groups train with Finland and Sweden.” - NATO, 29. April
“President Sauli Niinistö may endorse Finnish Nato membership on 12th of May.” - High North News
“As Finland considers NATO membership, citizens mobilize for an invasion by Russia.” - LA Times, 24. April
“USA president nimetas uue NATO Euroopa liitlasvägede ülemjuhataja.” - Postimees
“Venemaa levitab valeväiteid Soome kohta, kaasa arvatud, et soomlased viivad tanke Vene piiri äärde.” - Postimees
“What would Finland and Sweden joining NATO mean for Russia?” - Meduza
Estonia Closes Its Consulate General in St. Petersburg and Pskov
(SchengenVisaInfo)
“… all citizens would be able to contact the Estonian embassy in Moscow for any consular assistance.”
Estonia better positioned to receive weapons shipments than Ukraine
(ERR)
“European countries that still use Soviet arms are gradually switching to NATO standard systems. This also applies to Estonia.”
https://news.err.ee/1608588982/estonia-better-positioned-to-receive-weapons-shipments-than-ukraine
“Eesti sõjaline abi Ukrainale ulatub 230 miljoni euroni.” - ERR
“Kindral Karus: Venemaa laiendab oma haaret okupeeritud aladel.” - ERR
Estonia’s annual inflation is 19%, highest in the eurozone
(Estonian World)
“Lithuania and Latvia had the second and third highest increases, at 16.6 per cent and 13.2 per cent, respectively. Compared with March 2022, prices rose by 4.1% in Estonia, 2.5% in Latvia and 1.9% in Lithuania.”
https://estonianworld.com/business/estonias-annual-inflation-19-the-highest-in-the-eurozone/
“Eesti tarbijahinnad tõusid aastaga 18,8 %.” - ERR
“Estonia's annual inflation hit 19 percent in April.” - ERR
“Moody's affirms Estonia's A1 ratings, maintains stable outlook.” - ERR
“The Baltic states are currently clocking up the highest inflation rates in the European Union.” - BNE
Klaipedasse jõudis Eesti kahe kuu gaasivaru
(Postimees)
“Eesti Gaas ostis seni suurima koguse USA päritolu veeldatud gaasi (LNG), millega katab ära klientide järgneva kahe kuu gaasivajaduse. Täna jõudis hiigelmõõtu tanker Aristidis I Klaipeda sadamasse, kus järgnevatel päevadel toimub LNG punkerdamine Independence ujuvterminali, edasi liigub gaas Leedu ja Läti torustike kaudu Eestisse.
—
“Oleme ümber kujundamas gaasi tarneahelaid ja otsimas pikaajalisi LNG partnereid. Kevadel me Vene torugaasi ostnud pole ning oleme teenindanud kliente Lätis asuva maa-aluse gaasihoidla varudest.”
“Aasa sõnul jätkuvad LNG terminali läbirääkimised järgmisel nädalal.” - ERR
Brace for May 9
By Tom Nichols, The Atlantic
“In the West, May 9 usually passes without much notice. In Russia, however, it marks the surrender of Nazi Germany and the end of World War II in Europe. Russia’s Victory Day is a time for military parades and solemn remembrances …”
—
“This year, however, the world will be listening to Putin’s speech very carefully. Russia is once again in a major war in Europe, this time as the aggressor, as Putin pursues a mad crusade to establish some sort of Christian Slavic empire to replace the Soviet Union. On May 9, Putin is likely to provide a clue about whether he intends to bring that crusade to an end or extend it to a planet-threatening war.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/putin-speech-may-9-victory-day-russia/629742/
“How Victory Day became central to Putin’s idea of Russian identity.” - The Guardian
“Putin näitab maiparaadil lennukit, mida kasutaks tuumasõja korral.” - ERR
“Putin to send 'doomsday' warning to West at Russia's WW2 victory parade.” - Reuters
Thursday 5. May
NATOga või ilma? Soomlased hoiavad arvamuse enda teada
(Postimees)
“NATOga liitumise küsimus on Soomes olnud õrn teema, mistõttu ei soovi paljud soomlased avalikult oma eelistust välja öelda.”
Estonia Adjusts to a New Normality
By Merili Arjakas, Visegrad Insight (paywall)
“… the Estonian population is acutely aware that the consequences of the war will not be constrained in Ukraine. The electricity crisis and health crisis, plaguing the government in January, have dropped off the radar, as the government has ended all contentious restrictions. At the same time, the public at large now connects the high electricity and gas prices with the war in Ukraine. Prime Minister Kaja Kallas sums it up:”Gas might be expensive, but freedom is priceless”.
—
“The government was not surprised by the invasion, as the cabinet and the prime
minister's office had already started preparing for the war back in November. They
could not share their plans with the public because they did not want to raise the
level of fear amongst the populace. But the level of preparation allowed the
government to quickly shift gears on the morning of February 24. …”
https://visegradinsight.eu/estonia-adjusts-to-a-new-normality/
The Estonian foreign ministry held a virtual forum for Estonians worldwide
(Estonian World | YouTube - 2 hours)
“The forum discussed the impact the changed security situation in Europe has had on Estonia. The second panel looked at the possibilities of Estonia’s digital state. The forum also featured a conversation with the former Estonian president, Kersti Kaljulaid.”
https://estonianworld.com/life/live-a-virtual-forum-for-estonians-worldwide/
—
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdHMD7y_jBk&t=3175s
Russian troll factory sets sights on Finnish news outlets, editors
(Yle)
“The St Petersburg-based troll farm "Cyber Front Z" has recruited Russian citizens to target Western social media platforms, including Finnish accounts. … Ministry spokesperson Marija Zaharova published files in the messaging app Telegram which included information about the editors-in-chief of Finnish news outlets, urging the platform's users to send messages to them. … In addition to Yle, the news outlets included the publications Keskisuomalainen and Etelä-Saimaa, as well as the Selkokeskus service, which provides news in easily understandable Finnish.”
https://yle.fi/news/3-12431006
—
https://yle.fi/news/3-12431436
How Putin’s invasion returned Nato to the center of the stage
by Thomas Meaney, The Guardian
“Vladimir Putin has single-handedly revived the fortunes of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, returning it to the top of the foreign policy agenda. Scandinavian states that once prided themselves on independence from the organisation are now eager to join. The German government has pledged an unprecedented increase in defence spending, which means increasing its contribution to Nato. US military strategists dream anew of opening a Nato franchise for the Pacific, while EU bureaucrats plan a new Nato for the internet. Former liberal holdouts and sceptics of the alliance have learned to love Nato in much the same way they learned to love the CIA and the FBI during the Trump years. The old sheriff of the cold war has regained its focus, and, to the surprise of many, has proved itself to be a remarkably spry and capable force in the fight against Russia.”
“Debate on Whether Moscow Must Mobilize for Ukrainian War Intensifies Inside Russia.” - by Paul Goble, Jamestown Org.
The west must not get intimidated by Russia's talk of world war
(Baltic Times)
“Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said on Tuesday after Moscow warned there is a "real" danger of a World War III. According to Nauseda, Moscow is thus trying to deter the West from providing military support to Ukraine amid Russia's continued invasion of its neighbor. "We must not allow ourselves to be intimidated by this rhetoric which has already become commonplace," the president told reporters in the port city of Klaipeda. "They are just taking every appropriate and inappropriate opportunity to try to prevent Western countries from helping Ukraine.”
Wednesday 4. May
Saksamaa püüdis 1991. aastal takistada Baltimaade ja Ukraina iseseisvumist ning NATO laienemist
(Postimees)
“Kuigi Lääne-Saksamaa ei tunnustanud kunagi Eesti, Läti ja Leedu annekteerimist, ütles Kohl avalikustatud doklumentide kohaselt 1991. aasta alguses Pariisis Prantsusmaa presidendile François Mitterrand’ile, et Nõukogude Liidust lahku lüüa soovivad Balti riigid on ‘valel teel’.”
‘Newly Released’ Documents Reportedly Shed Fresh Light on NATO's Eastward Expansion
(Spiegel, 3. May 2022)
“The new volume with papers from 1991 includes memos, minutes and letters containing previously unknown details about NATO’s eastward expansion, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the independence of Ukraine.”
Estonians' sense of personal security fell last month from 70 % to 67 %
(ERR)
“Over the last month, Estonian residents' perceived security has fallen, data from a new survey shows. … Responding to a question about personal security and living in Estonia, support fell from 70 percent to 67 percent.”
https://news.err.ee/1608585352/survey-estonians-sense-of-security-fell-last-month
Tuesday 3. May
Estonia once again at top of Europe’s press freedom index
(Emerging Europe | Estonian World)
“The quintet of Nordic and Baltic countries at the top of the Index – Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Estonia – continues to serve as a democratic model where freedom of expression flourishes, while Moldova (40th) and Bulgaria (91st) stand out this year thanks to government change and the hope it has brought for improvement in the situation for journalists even if oligarchs still own or control the media.”
https://emerging-europe.com/news/estonia-once-again-emerging-europes-press-freedom-champion/
—
https://estonianworld.com/life/estonia-rises-to-top-five-in-the-2022-world-press-freedom-index/
“Kohus trahvis kaht Eesti Ekspressi ajakirjanikku rahapesuartikli eest.” - Postimees
“Kohus trahvis kaht Eesti Ekspressi ajakirjanikku rahapesuartikli eest.” - ERR
“Kas ajakirjanike trahvimise õigust on üldse vaja?” - Postimees
“Estonia has taken leading role in defending media freedom in the world.” - Baltic Times
“Finland dropped from second to fifth in the World Press Index.” - Yle
“Putin’s conflict is showcasing a new age for war reporting.” - Conversation
Elering sõlmis Soome Gasgridiga leppe LNG ujuvterminali ühiseks rentimiseks
(ERR)
“Praeguse plaani järgi saabub LNG ujuvterminal Eestisse selle aasta lõpus ja jääb siia, kuni selle vastuvõtmise suutlikkus on ka Soomes olemas. Soomes seistes suudab ujuvterminal teenindada parimal moel nii Soome kui ka Eesti kliente ja tagada mõlema riigi varustuskindluse, teatas Elering.”
Estonia, Finland sign LNG terminal cooperation agreement
(ERR)
“The rented floating terminal will have at least 30 terawatt-hours capacity and countries will share the costs. Elering and Gasgrid are responsible for its installation and the companies will also signal a cooperation agreement. The terminal will begin operating in whichever country has the infrastructure needed to service the terminal in place first, and thereafter at the Port of Inkoo in Finland.”
https://news.err.ee/1608581947/estonia-finland-sign-lng-terminal-cooperation-agreement
“Estonia exploring geothermal potential.” - Think Geoenergy
“Finland preparing for possible suspension of gas deliveries from Russia.” - Helsinki Times
Besides Ukraine, Russia Must ‘De-Nazify’ Six More Countries, Moscow Deputy Says
By Paul Goble, 2. May
“Last week, Sergey Savostyanov, a KPRF deputy in the Moscow city duma, said that after Ukraine, Russia must “de-Nazify” six additional countries: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Moldova and Kazakhstan, an “enemies” or target list that appears to reflect more than just his personal opinion. … it is clearly more than that judging from the attention it has now been given by Vladimir Vinokurov, a professor at the Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/05/besides-ukraine-russia-must-de-nazify.html
Articles in Russian:
https://www.ostro.org/general/society/news/631068/
—
https://suspilne.media/221719-rf-pogrozue-silou-vsij-evropi-podolak/
—
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1507474428263014403
Finland pulls plug on Russian-backed nuclear reactor project
(The Barents Observer | Bellona)
“The Fennovoima group said in a statement on Monday that the planned Hanhikivi plant has encountered significant delays in recent years and that because of the situation in Ukraine, “… cooperation with [Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear corporation] is terminated with immediate effect and both the design and licensing work and works at the Hanhikivi 1 site with [Rosatom] end.”
—
“The Fennovoima project has been mired in controversy since the beginning, with a former Finnish environmental minister telling the Financial Times in 2014 that it represented “Finlandisation” – a laden term that refers to a smaller country adapting policy to suit a larger, more powerful neighbor. At the root of the controversy was that Rosatom was not just the supplier of the Hanhikivi 1 reactor but also the Fennovoima consortium’s main shareholder.”
—
Finland and Sweden can count on Germany for protection and NATO membership support
(Politico Europe | Deutsche Welle)
“Speaking at Schloss Meseberg, the chancellor’s retreat north of Berlin, Scholz said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine violated “all legal agreements and understandings which we had found in Europe in the last decades … and therefore nobody can be sure that the Russian president and the Russian government will not break international law and our agreements by force on another occasion.”
—
“Scholz, who was addressing reporters alongside Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin and her Swedish counterpart Magdalena Andersson, said that Germany was “following very closely” the debate in both countries about their potential accession to NATO, and added: “For us it is clear: If these two countries decide that they want to be part of the NATO alliance, then they can count on our support.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/finland-sweden-germany-protection-nato-membership-support/
—
Norway to Close Borders & Ports to Russian Trucks & Ships From May 7
(SchengenVisaInfo)
“Announcing the move, Norwegian Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt said that sanctions against Russia are the most important means of pressure, asserting that it is crucial for Norway to stand with the EU countries in their bid to weaken Russia’s ability to finance the war.n“We know that sanctions work best when several countries agree on them. With this, we are implementing the EU’s fifth and final sanctions package, and we have received good Norwegian regulations to do so,” the Minister said.”
—
“According to the Ministry, starting from next Saturday, Russian-flagged vessels will be banned at all ports in mainland Norway, including here ships over 500 gross tons that sail commercially in international traffic, yachts and some pleasure craft and recreational vessels.”
__________
Putin’s War
__________
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: 5. May 2022
(ISW)
[ISW produces excellent, detailed, open-source intelligence analysis.]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-invasion-update-25
Putin’s War in Ukraine has 'backfired' David Petraeus tells DW
(Deutsche Welle)
“The retired US army general said rather than advancing Russia's cause, the war in Ukraine was making NATO stronger. He also praised "extraordinary" steps taken by Germany on weapons exports and military spending.”
https://www.dw.com/en/russias-war-in-ukraine-has-backfired-david-petraeus-tells-dw/a-61700375
‘We Can Only Be Enemies’
By Peter Pomerantsev, The Atlantic
“Even for the legions of Russians who buy into the conspiracy theories—that their country is under threat from the U.S., that Russia deserves an empire—there is the issue of whether the Kremlin is competent enough to pursue such ambitions. The longer the war drags on, the more questions will surface about whether the Kremlin knows what it’s doing.”
Russia’s Long Disdain for Ukrainian Nationhood
(Wall Street Journal)
“The idea that Ukrainians aren’t a real people and that Ukrainian nationhood is an artificial construct has long been mainstream in Russian culture, literature and politics—including among liberal luminaries like Joseph Brodsky, (a young poet in the Soviet Union, who died in 1996). President Vladimir Putin’s views on Ukraine, which he expounded in an essay last year that was read to Russian soldiers preparing for the invasion, are no outlier. They follow a lengthy tradition that helps to explain the continuing support for the war among Russia’s citizens.”
—
“This blind spot dates to the beginnings of the modern Ukrainian quest for sovereignty more than a century ago. “The Russian democrat ends where the Ukrainian question begins,” said Ukrainian writer and playwright Volodymyr Vynnychenko, who served as prime minister of the short-lived Ukrainian National Republic in 1917-18. It has become one of the best-known phrases in Ukrainian politics.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-long-disdain-for-ukrainian-nationhood-11651165024
“Ukraine’s wheat harvest may fall by 35%, raising fears of global shortage.” - The Guardian
“Peeter Tali: venelased pääsesid Azovstali sisse tänu äraandjale.” - Postimees
“Finland sends more defence materiel assistance to Ukraine.” - Finnish Gov.
“Welcome to Russia’s ‘holy war’.” - Politico Europe
“Okupeeritud aladelt Vene väkke mobiliseeritud mehed ei suuda ega taha Ukrainaga võidelda.” - Postimees
“Putin May Have No Choice But To Declare War On Ukraine.” - 1945
“U.S. intelligence helping Ukraine kill Russian generals.” - NY Times / Reuters
“Russian planning to annex eastern Ukraine this month, says US.” - Euronews
“Mariupol Worse Than WWII Siege Of Leningrad, Says Ukrainian Holocaust Survivor” - RFERL, 2. May
“The Voices of Those Trapped in the Mariupol Steel Works.” - Spiegel
“Mariupoli evakuatsioonibussidest jõuab Ukraina kontrolli all olevale alale ainult murdosa.” - Postimees
“Tapped Calls Expose Russia’s Heinous Treatment of Own Dead Troops.” - The Daily Beast
“Is Putin's threat of 'lightning-fast' response escalation or empty rhetoric?” - Deutsche Welle
“By attacking Ukraine, Russia is endangering its future as an oil and gas exporter.” - Politico Europe
WSJ: Putin võib päriselt Ukrainas tuumatabu murda
(Postimees)
“Miks peaks Vladimir Putin taktikalisi tuumarelvi kasutama? Miks astuks ta niivõrd hullu sammu?”
—
“Et keerata uus lehekülg. Et šokeerida ja destabiliseerida vastaseid. Et NATO rahvad põnnama panna, nii et nad oma juhid taanduma sunnivad. Et tuletada meelde nii maailmale kui venelastele – ma olen võimas. Et vältida valusat ja avalikku kaotust. Et võita.”
https://wallstreetjournal.postimees.ee/7511689/wsj-putin-voib-pariselt-ukrainas-tuumatabu-murda
Propaganda in Russia is arguing for nuclear weapons use in Ukraine
(International Business Times)
"Kremlin's "propaganda warriors" were striving to make nuclear weapons use more palatable to the Russian public.”
https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/propaganda-russia-arguing-nuclear-weapons-use-nobel-laureate-1699718
“Washington Should Take Russian Nuclear Threats Seriously.” - Foreign Policy
“How to Gauge the Risk of a Nuclear Escalation with Russia.” -Defense One
“Putin’s continued “nuclear” threat is part of a calculated effort to deter NATO from getting more directly involved in Ukraine.” - Warrior Maven
“Russian TV Hosts Discuss Nuclear Strikes on U.K, France, Germany.” - Newsweek
“Russia Simulates Nuclear Strikes in Kaliningrad.” - Moscow Times
“Russian Forces Simulate Nuclear Attack Near Border With Poland.” - Newsweek
“Russia says risks of nuclear war must be kept to minimum, TASS reports.” - Reuters
“Mark Galeotti on Russia and the Nuclear Threat.” - Atomic Hobo Podcast
“Russian ‘nuclear tsunami’ will wipe out Britain, Kremlin-backed media threatens.” - The Times, UK
“Russian TV shows simulation of Britain and Ireland wiped out by a nuke.” - Washington Post
“The War in Ukraine, as Seen on Russian TV.” - New York Times
How Nato could strike back if Putin uses a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine
By Michael Gallagher, 19FortyFive
“If an insecure and angry Putin finally pushes the button, he may start small (hopefully) with one or more low-yield weapons launched against a Ukrainian battlefield target.”
US artillery in the hands of Ukrainians may reshape the war with Russia
(Task & Purpose)
“About 70 of the 90 M777 howitzer 155 mm guns along with roughly 70,000 artillery rounds have been transferred to Ukraine so far. … The U.S. Defense Department is also providing Ukrainian forces with 14 counter-artillery radars. Combined with those radars, which the Ukrainians have been receiving since 2015, the howitzers will allow Ukrainian forces to target and attack Russian tube and rocket artillery.”
https://taskandpurpose.com/analysis/us-military-artillery-ukraine-russia-war/
“More than 120 of “Phoenix Ghost,” drones have been donated to Ukraine.” - Task & Purpose
“Russia just lost its advanced T-90M Proryv-3 (Breakthrough-3) Tank In Ukraine.” - The Drive
Since Putin launched war in Ukraine two months ago, Moscow has blocked ‘more than 85,000’ internet stories about it
By Paul Goble
“… this effort is designed to block the active distribution of “false information about the special military operation in Ukraine, its forms, capability of conducting military actions, supposed attacks on the peaceful population and civic infrastructure, and significant losses” of life.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/05/since-putin-launched-war-in-ukraine-two.html
And Finally:
A new Iron Curtain is eroding Norway's hard-won ties with Russia on Arctic nuclear waste dump issues
(NPR)
“Everything that has been built up over the last 30 years, was just washed out in a few days. We are seeing the Iron Curtain coming back," says Thomas Nilsen with the Barents Observer newspaper in Kirkenes. The new Iron Curtain severed personal ties, economic links and even scuttled issues of mutual survival, Nilsen says. For years, Norway had been helping Russia safely dispose of spent fuel rods from its aging nuclear submarines, which were stationed in the Arctic.”
—
“He's referring to one of the world's biggest nuclear waste dumps, across the border, where tons of waste from Russian power plants and aging submarines pose a constant threat, either as a contaminant to the Arctic sea life or as material in a terrorist dirty bomb.”
https://www.npr.org/2022/04/30/1092639702/russia-norway-nato-arctic-council
“The ongoing process to rid Russia’s Northwest of its radioactive Cold War legacy.” - Bellona Org.
“Russia’s ‘slow-motion Chernobyl’ at sea.” - BBC
“Norway and Russia mark 25 years of cooperative work on radiation security.” - Bellona Org., October 2021
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