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12 August, 2022

 


A Small City, its T-34, and the Empire of Vladimir Putin
By Aliide Naylor, CEPA
“On a largely deserted stretch of road between the Estonian city of Narva and the nearby beach town of Narva-JĂ”esuu, a lone Soviet T-34 tank sits atop a stone pedestal, its gun facing towards Estonia. … The country’s key political figures have proposed everything from removing it completely, to installing a permanent exhibition nearby, documenting the horrors of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
—
“All of these monuments need to be removed before tensions or anxiety builds to the point that it has a much higher price already,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told reporters on Monday after visiting the city. … The following day, the formerly deserted thoroughfare was flooded with cars and visitors flocked to the tank in what Estonian broadcaster ERR described as a “spontaneous gathering” after rumors spread on social media, according to Narva Mayor Katri Raik. “This was a call [to gather].”






Narva linnavÔim loodab tanki teisaldada 20. augustiks
(ERR)
“Teisaldamise protseduuri peab algatama volikogu, mis koguneb alles eeloleval esmaspĂ€eval. Enne seda omavalitsus monumenti Ă€ra viia ei saa.”
—
"Me ikkagi ju saame kĂ”ik aru, et Narvas on tanki kĂŒsimuses erinevad arvamused ja iga Stanislav ja Oleg ei ole valmis seda tanki kĂ”rvaldama ja iga Stanislav ja Oleg ei ole ka valmis seda tanki valvama. Me peame seda mĂ”istma," sĂ”nas linnapea Katri Raik. Teisaldamise tempo on ka Narvale oluline ja tank loodetakse postamendilt maha vĂ”tta tuleval nĂ€dalal.”
—
"Me tahame seda teha tĂ”epoolest pĂ€rast volikogu otsust esimesel vĂ”imalusel. Jah, ma loodan, et 20. augustil tank oma tĂ€nasel kohal ei seisa ja et selle Ă€raviimine on toimunud rahumeelselt, ilma rahutusteta ja inimeste sĂŒda on ka enam-vĂ€hem rahul," ĂŒtles Raik.













President Karis: et Narva tank meid tĂŒlli ei ajaks
(Estonian World Review)
“MĂ€lestusmĂ€rgid ise on sĂ”natud, aga nende tĂ€hendus rÀÀgib meiega nĂŒĂŒd valjul hÀÀlel. Ka tank T-34 Narva jĂ”e kaldal ei sĂŒmboliseeri enam vaid 1944. aasta sĂŒndmusi – Saksa vĂ€gede taganemist, Punaarmee edasitungi, langenud sĂ”dureid ja Eesti jÀÀmist jĂ€lle vÔÔra vĂ”imu alla. Paljudele Eesti inimestele sĂŒmboliseerib see vana tank Vene vĂ€gede ohvriterohkeid rĂŒnnakuid Ukraina linnade ja kĂŒlade pihta. Ka minu puhul on see nĂ”nda, sest olen Ukrainas ise nĂ€inud, millist valu ja leina toovad peaaegu samasugused Vene tankid. Niisugune sĂŒmbol meie avalikku ruumi ei sobi.”





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Friday 12. August



Venemaa ja lÀÀne vastasseis on uus normaalsus
Kristi Raik, Postimees
“SĂ”da Ukrainas on löönud pöördumatult katki Euroopa kĂŒlma sĂ”ja jĂ€rgse julgeolekukorralduse. PĂŒĂŒdlused siduda Venemaad ĂŒhiselt kokku lepitud reeglite ja koostööga on kolossaalselt ebaĂ”nnestunud. LÀÀnemere regiooni riigid on kiiresti tugevdanud oma valmisolekut uue kĂŒlma sĂ”ja laadse olukorraga hakkama saada. Samas lÀÀneriikides, kus on aastaid korrutatud, et Euroopas ei saa olla julgeolekut ilma Venemaata, on endiselt raskusi uue reaalsusega kohaneda ja koostööle suunatud mĂ”ttemallidest loobuda.”




Estonia, Finland to integrate coastal missile defense systems
(ERR)
“Estonia will buy Israeli Blue Spear land-to-sea missiles this autumn, which have a range of 290 kilometers. Finland's MTO 85M missiles have a range of over 100 kilometers. At the Gulf of Finland's narrowest point, there are 52 kilometers of sea between the two countries and 120km at its widest. … the integration of missile defense systems will make it possible to close the Gulf of Finland to Russian warships.”
—
"The Baltic Sea will be NATO's internal sea when Finland and Sweden have joined NATO. Compared with what it is today, the situation is changing.”







Eesti ja Soome ĂŒhendavad oma raketikaitsed
(ERR)
“Kaitseminister Hanno Pevkur andis intervjuu Soome ajalehele Iltalehti ja ĂŒtles, et Eesti ja Soome rakettide lennuulatus on suurem kui Soome lahe laius. Ministri sĂ”nul ĂŒhendavad riigid oma raketikaitsed. … Eesti otsustas eelmisel aasta osta Iisraeli raketid Blue Spear. Nende laskekaugus on 290 kilomeetrit. Soome merevĂ€e rakettide MTO 85M lennuulatus on ĂŒle 100 kilomeetri. Pevkur rĂ”hutas, et Soome ja Eesti raketikaitse integreerimine vĂ”imaldab sulgeda Soome lahe Vene sĂ”jalaevadele.”






Estonia Never Needed to Import Gas by Ship. Until It Did.
(New York Times - login may be required)
“This tiny Baltic nation is set to complete Europe’s first new liquefied natural gas project since Russia set off a race for energy security with its invasion of Ukraine. A floating facility in Estonia will take in shipments of natural gas and pipe it to a network that serves the Baltics and Finland.”




Estonian women among the most highly educated in Europe
(Estonian World | BNN)
“Estonia has seen an increase in the proportion of people with higher education, while the share of persons with basic education has decreased. Estonian women are still among the most highly educated in Europe, and overall Estonia ranks seventh in terms of the share of people with higher education.” 
—




VÔru ja Valga saavad pÀÀsteametilt ohusireeni
(LÔunaPostimees)
“PÀÀsteamet selgitas vĂ€lja 16 suuremat linna, kuhu on kavas paigaldada sireenidel pĂ”hinev ohuteavituse sĂŒsteem. … Sireenidel pĂ”hinev ohuteavituse sĂŒsteem paigaldatakse 16 suuremasse asulasse: Tallinna/Muugale, Tartusse, PĂ€rnusse, Narva, VĂ”rru, Paldiskisse, SillamĂ€ele, Tapale, JĂ”hvi, Maardusse, Rakverre, Keilasse, Viljandisse, Valka, Kuressaarde ja Haapsallu.”
—
“Elanikkonnakaitse vaatest on see suurim investeering, mida viimase 30 aasta jooksul on tehtud. Riik eraldas ohusireenide vĂ”rgustiku loomiseks 4,5 miljonit eurot.b Esimesed seadmed on plaanis paigaldada 2022. aasta lĂ”pus ning kogu sĂŒsteem vĂ”iks valmis olla 2023. aasta juuliks.”




Vene gaas liigub LÀtti Eestit lÀbiva torulÔigu kaudu
(ERR)
“Vene riiklik gaasifirma Gazprom taastas gaasitarne LĂ€tti, kuhu see liigub Eestit lĂ€biva Eleringile kuuluva torujuhtme lĂ”igu kaudu, kuid kogu ĂŒhendust ja sealhulgas Eesti lĂ”iku opereerib LĂ€ti sĂŒsteemihaldur.”






Thursday 11. August


Juhtkiri: Venelased peavad valima, kas sÔda vÔi turism
(Postimees)
“Ukraina president ja Soome ja Eesti peaminister on Ă”igel teel. Senikaua kui venelased tahavad Euroopaga sĂ”dida, ei ole neil siia turistidena asja. Humanitaarkaalutlused, nagu ajakirjanike vĂ”i teisitimĂ”tlejate tagakiusamine, on teine asi. Venelased vĂ”ivad puhata Krimmis, kui neid plahvatused ei hĂ€iri, vĂ”i nĂ€iteks TĂŒrgis, kuhu nad on endiselt oodatud.”










Estonia stops issuing visas to Russian tourists
(Politico Europe)
“The Estonian government on Thursday announced that it will ban Russians with Estonian-issued Schengen visas from entering the country. "We see that the number of Russian citizens passing through Estonia or coming to Estonia from Russia has increased massively," Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu told a press conference, … "The possibility for Russian citizens to visit Estonia en masse or through Estonia to Europe is not in line with the purpose of the sanctions we have imposed," he added.”






Estonia, Finland want Europe to end Russian tourist visas
(ABC News)
“Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas wrote Tuesday on Twitter that “visiting Europe is a privilege, not a human right” and that it is “time to end tourism from Russia now.” A day earlier, her counterpart in Finland, Sanna Marin, told Finnish broadcaster YLE that “it is not right that while Russia is waging an aggressive, brutal war of aggression in Europe, Russians can live a normal life, travel in Europe, be tourists.”
—
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy went further in a Washington Post interview Monday, saying all Western countries should ban Russian tourists.”









Eestisse jÀÀnud sĂ”japĂ”genike arv ĂŒletas 50,000 piiri
(ERR | Postimees)
“NeljapĂ€eva hommikuse seisuga on Eestisse jÀÀnud 50,347 sĂ”japĂ”genikku Ukrainast, … Kokku on riiki sisenenud 86,768 sĂ”japĂ”genikku, kellest 36,421 on Eestist edasi liikunud. Edasi liikunute osakaal on 42 %. KĂ”igist riiki sisenenutest oli alaealisi 23,219 ehk ligi 27%.”
—




Rate hikes are little help for Estonia’s 22% inflation, Europe’s worst
(Washington Post)
“… and more than twice as fast as in the United States. This tiny Baltic nation, and its neighbors, Latvia and Lithuania, represent extreme examples of the price pressures sweeping Europe and confronting policymakers, executives and consumers with a challenge unseen for 40 years.”
—
“Consumer grumbling about rising prices, meanwhile, is muted, overshadowed by existential worries about the threat from neighboring Russia.”




Estonia and Latvia withdraw from China cooperation group
(Reuters | others)
“The move comes amid Western criticism towards China over escalating military pressure on democratically ruled Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, and Beijing's strengthening of ties with Russia during the invasion of Ukraine.”
—
—




Finland blocks dozens of private Russian flights from using Finnish airspace
(Yle)
“The Finnish Transport and Communications Agency Traficom has in recent months blocked around thirty business or private flights carrying Russian oligarchs or others subject to EU sanctions.”






How real is the danger from Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant?
(Politico Europe)
“Reports of shelling at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Russian-occupied Ukraine have reignited fears of nuclear disaster — but experts remain confident that the risk of a Chernobyl-like cataclysm is low. The plant at Zaporizhzhia, which has been under the control of Moscow’s troops since March, was hit with several shelling attacks over the weekend.”








Wednesday 10. August


Estonia protests to Russia about 'unacceptable' violation of its airspace
(Reuters)
“Estonia on Wednesday summoned the Russian ambassador and formally protested about the violation of its airspace by a Russian helicopter on Tuesday, the foreign ministry said.”






Kallas tests positive for COVID
(Politico Europe, 10. August)
“Kallas said she has minor symptoms: She lost her voice on Monday, attributing that to a minor cold, because her rapid COVID tests were negative at first. She tested positive after a fever soared on Monday evening. Kallas was on Monday in the eastern city of Narva, near the Russian border, to meet with local authorities.”




Krimm ei ole venelastele enam turvaline koht: Teet Kalmus
(Estonian World Review)
“MĂ€ng on muutunud, nĂŒĂŒd ei ole Krimmis enam kuskil turvaline. Turismihooaeg on lĂ€bi. Novofjodorovka lennuvĂ€ljal olid lennukid, mis osalesid aktiivselt sĂ”jategevuses Ukraina vastu - lennukid Su-24, Su-30, Su-33, kuus helikopterit. Kuigi Venemaa vĂ€itel ĂŒkski lennuk kahjustusi ei saanud, siis on internetis liikvel fotod hĂ€vinenud lennukitest, kilomeetrite raadiuses lennuvĂ€lja ĂŒmber on majadel aknad katki ja osadel ka katused Ă€ra lennanud. Seal ei saanud suurt midagi enam lennukĂ”lblikuks jÀÀda, lisaks on lennurada kahjustusi saanud. VĂ€ga suures ohus on ka ĂŒlejÀÀnud lennuvĂ€ljad, sest ilmselgelt on nad kĂ”ik Ukraina jaoks prioriteetsed sihtmĂ€rgid.”




Ukraina kindral: jÀrgmiseks kevadeks vÔidame sÔja
(ERR)
“Ukraina kindralmajori DmĂ”tro MartĆĄenko sĂ”nul suudab Ukraina praeguste relvasaadetiste ja senilubatu abil vĂ”ita sĂ”ja Venemaa vastu jĂ€rgmiseks kevadeks. Hersoni oblasti vabastamine toimub kindrali hinnangul 2022. aasta lĂ”puks kindlasti.”




Haljala valla elanikud vÔitlevad lubjakivikarjÀÀri vastu
(ERR)
“Kaevandus rajatakse mitme PĂ”hja-Eesti kultuuripĂ€randisse kuuluva - Palmse, Sagadi ja Vihula - mĂ”isa vahele. "On arusaamatu, et piirkonnas, kus on piisavalt töötavaid kaevandusi, mis katavad juba Ă€ra kogu maavara vajaduse paarikĂŒmneks aastaks, tahetakse rajada veel ĂŒhte kaevandust. Sellel maa-alal ei ole kunagi kaevandust olnud ja kui see siiski lĂ€bi surutakse, on kahju suur ja pöördumatu.”




Biden signs ratification of US support for Finland, Sweden NATO bids
(Helsinki Times | The Hill)
“President Biden said, "Finland and Sweden will make NATO stronger. Today, I signed the U.S. Instruments of Ratification, making the United States the 23rd Ally to approve their membership in NATO.”
—
"Earlier this month, Senators voted 95-1 in favour of the Finland and Sweden accession, making the US the 23rd of the 30 Nato countries give a formal endorsement.”
—







‘We borrow our lands from our children’: SĂĄmi say they are paying for Sweden going green
(The Guardian)
“In Sweden’s Arctic north, the Sami (or SĂĄmi), one of Europe’s most distinct Indigenous communities, are facing the loss of their culture, livelihood and identity, they say, due to a failure to respect their rights. Forestry and large-scale hydropower – 80% of which is on Sami land – has shrunk winter grazing areas. Sixty years of logging and clearing has meant forests rich in lichen, traditional grazing for reindeer, have declined by 71% in Sweden. The herders’ biggest challenge now is to “get enough food for the reindeer, to find grazing areas that are connected. It is almost impossible to feed them from nature only.”






Tuesday 9. August


Stop Tiptoeing Around Russia
By Alexander Vindman, Foreign Affairs
“The war has now reached an inflection point. The United States must decide whether it will help Ukraine approach the negotiating table with as much leverage as it can or watch Russia reorganize and resupply its troops, adapt its tactics, and commit to a long-term war of attrition. If Ukrainian democracy is going to prevail, U.S. foreign policymakers must finally prioritize dealing with Ukraine as it is rather than Russia as they would like it to be.”






What a US military base in Poland may signal for NATO
Christian Science Monitor, 5. August
“The war in Ukraine has prompted the U.S. to reevaluate its military footprint in Eastern Europe despite a 1997 agreement, the NATO-Russia Founding Act, that ostensibly prohibits permanent U.S. bases in the region. NATO officials have said that Moscow nullified the act with its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its invasion of Ukraine this year. For now, an evolving cooperation within NATO – symbolized by the new base – is central to achieving the alliance’s goal of security, analysts say.“




The Russia Whisperer
(Foreign Policy)
“Mikko Hautala, the Finnish ambassador to Washington, has met Russian President Vladimir Putin over a dozen times. They’ve even spent time at a sauna together. Hautala has represented Finland abroad for over two decades, but he is also an expert on all things Russia. One senior U.S. diplomat even called him Washington’s “Russia whisperer.” Few understand Russia better than their Finnish neighbors, and there are few Finns with the type of experience bridging Russian and Ukrainian history than Hautala.”




Belarus’s Economic Downturn
(Jamestown)
“In mid-July 2022, Moody’s and Fitch—two of the three international credit rating agencies—declared that Belarus is in technical default on its debt.”





Monday 8. August



War in Ukraine Puts Estonia’s Debt Burden on Upward Trajectory
(Fitch Ratings, 4. August)
“In the near term, growth will be severely affected by the direct and indirect impact on trade, a decline in consumer confidence and double-digit inflation.  … For now, public finances remain Estonia’s key rating strength. Estonia entered the pandemic with one of the lowest general government debt ratios across Fitch-rated sovereigns, at just 8.6% of GDP in 2019. We project the debt/GDP ratio to reach 28.4% in 2024, still far below the ‘AA’ median.”




Traffic jam of 21 ships waiting to enter Russian ports off Estonian coast
(Postimees)
“… between the KĂ€smu Peninsula and Finland’s Porvoo. … The armada of tankers and cargo vessels anchored in Estonia’s economic zone some twenty kilometers away from the KĂ€smu Peninsula can be seen from afar. Approximately half of the ships in the waiting area are tankers and the rest bulk carriers. The tankers were riding high in the water with their bow bulbs visible which proved that their tanks were empty and they were on their way to Russia for cargo.”
—
“The number of ships waiting in the Gulf of Finland increased since the beginning of the Russian aggression in Ukraine.”





__________

Putin’s War
__________



Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: 11. August 2022
(ISW)
“US State Department called on Russian forces to cease all military activity surrounding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.”
—
“Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of large explosions deep within Russian-occupied Crimea on August 9.”
—
“Ukrainian officials framed the August 9 attack in Crimea as the start of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south, suggesting that the Ukrainian military expects intense fighting in August and September that could decide the outcome of the next phase of the war. ”
—
“Russia’s 64th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (64th SGMRB) of the 35th Combined Arms Army (CAA) has likely been destroyed in combat, possibly as part of an intentional Kremlin effort to conceal the war crimes it committed in Kyiv Oblast.”




Sabotage, Assassinations, Propaganda: Guerrilla War Rattles Ukraine's Russian Occupiers
(RFERL)
“Posters have been going up on lampposts, bus stops, and apartment building entrances around the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, seized and occupied by Russian forces in the early days after Moscow’s February 24 invasion.”
—
“Russians! We Will Turn You Into…” one poster that appeared in June said, over a picture of ground hamburger meat.”
—
“Another, glued to walls in Kherson, read: “Do You Want To Live? Give Yourself Up!” and included a QR code that, when scanned on a phone, redirects to a Ukrainian government website that has specific instructions about how to approach a Ukrainian soldier to surrender. …”







How Russia Took 80,000 Casualties in Ukraine
(National Interest)
“… while many reasons explain Ukraine’s unanticipated successes and ability to capture the world’s imagination, one thing is clear: the invading Russians lacked the “will” to fight.”
—
“This makes sense, to some extent; many Russian soldiers were reportedly told they were on a training mission. Yet the Russian morale problems were even larger than some expected. There were numerous anecdotal reports that Russian soldiers lacked food, supplies, and any kind of coherent command and control.”
—
“Also, just what exactly were the Russian soldiers expected to want to fight for?”




Can Ukraine ever take back Crimea?
(Deutsche Welle)
“The bombing of targets in Crimea (by Ukraine) would have a different significance for Russia than the war in Donbas and the rest of Ukraine. Moscow regards the peninsula, which was annexed in violation of international law, as its very own national territory and, following an internationally unrecognized referendum, as part of the Russian Federation. According to a Russian interpretation, attacks on Crimea would mean the war had shifted to Russian territory — threatening a further escalation of the war.”









The Desperate Lives Inside Ukraine’s “Dead Cities”
(The New Yorker)
“People in Ukraine sometimes describe the intensity of shelling in simple auditory terms. A place can be “quiet” or “loud.” As the volume increases, so do the chaos, misery, death, and fear. … Russian officials, far from being humbled by that ordeal, have insisted on their continued determination not only to seize Ukrainian land and resources but also to punish and terrorize Ukrainians and their supporters.”
—
“I hate them,” Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s security council, wrote on social media in early June. “They are bastards and scum,” he went on. “As long as I live, I will do everything to make them disappear.”






Russia Readying the Zinc Coffins Again
(Foreign Policy)
“The U.S. Defense Department believes that as many as 80,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine less than six months ago, a top Pentagon official told reporters today. As the Biden administration announced a new $1 billion military aid package for Ukraine, the largest batch of weapons sent to Kyiv since the United States began sending lethal weapons to the war-torn country more than five years ago, U.S. officials sought to highlight the extraordinary toll that the war has exacted on Russia’s military, which they have described as the most intense conventional conflict in Europe since World War II.”













And Finally:


The man who has Putin’s 
ear - and may want his job
(Washington Post - 13. July)
“Nikolai Patrushev, the powerful Security Council secretary and close Putin ally from their days together at the KGB in St. Petersburg, told the Russian president that the United States was behind tensions in eastern Ukraine and seeking to orchestrate Russia’s collapse. “Our task is to defend the territorial integrity of our country and defend its sovereignty,” Patrushev said in broadcast remarks.”
—
“Patrushev, whose position is equivalent to the U.S. national security adviser, was expressing a Cold War view that has driven Putin’s war. Ever since Putin ordered the Feb. 24 invasion, blindsiding much of the country’s elite, Patrushev has become a hard-line avatar for a militaristic Russia.”
—
“Patrushev’s sudden emergence after more than two decades as a behind-the-scenes power broker has underlined his role as a driving force in the Kremlin. For a while, it even prompted questions about whether he was seeking to position himself to take over from Putin, amid persistent speculation about the president’s health and Russia’s retreat from Kyiv.”




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