Estonia: Russia Attack Not Likely but Baltics Under Threat
By Jari Tanner - AP
“… any confrontation between Russia and the West could quickly turn into a threat situation for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.”
—
“Director General Mikk Marran of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service said Wednesday that while Moscow wants to refrain from a conflict with NATO, it may opt for "a preventive military offensive" in the Baltic region if it anticipates escalation of a conflict "even if this occurs in another region”.
Report: International Security and Estonia 2020
(Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service)
“The report discusses the latest developments in Russia's military, internal politics and influence operations, among many other topics.”
or:
Aruanne: Eesti Rahvusvahelises Julgeolekukeskkonnas 2020
(Välisluureamet)
“Loe täismahus: välisluureameti aastaraamat.”
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Friday
14. February
__________
The Unique Way Finland and Estonia Celebrate Valentine's Day
(Time)
“Known as Ystävän Päivä in Finnish and Sõbrapäev in Estonian, Friend’s Day is celebrated by single people and couples alike. … celebrations of romantic love do not take center stage.”
Läänemerele suundus õppusele üle 20 Vene sõjalaeva
(ERR)
“Laevastiku staabi teatel osalevad õppusel korvetid, raketi- ja dessantlaevad, baasitraalerid, dessantkaatrid ja abilaevad.”
Deterrence Through Military Mobility
(CEPA)
“While military mobility was never entirely off of NATO’s radar, it was pushed down the priority list as expeditionary operations took the spotlight away from Europe’s collective territorial defense. It is telling that NATO’s so-called Logistics Handbook, which includes mobility technicalities, has not been updated since 1997. With military mobility now back on the agenda, there has been an awakening of sorts …”
Russian Pollster: Baltic Countries Will Always Be at or Near Top of Russians’ Enemies List
by Paul Goble - Window on Eurasia
“There are several reasons for this, Denis Volkov, deputy director of Levada Center says. “The simplest” is that Russian television presents a negative view of the Baltic countries, in part because that is what the Kremlin wants and in part because Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have acted at various points in history in ways difficult for Russians to see as anything but anti-Russian.”
В 2020 году существует вероятность резкого и внезапного обострения отношений между Россией и странами Балтии
December 31, 2019: “In 2020, there is a likelihood of a sharp and sudden deterioration of relations between Russia and the Baltic countries.”
Otseblogi Münchenist
(Postimees)
“14.-16. veebruaril koguneb rahvusvaheliste suhete eliit Baierimaa pealinna, et pidada märgilisi kõnesid, anda üksteisele signaale ja esitada oma versioone tänase maailma põhilistest vaidlusküsimustest.”
Political Party ratings in Estonia
(ERR)
Reform Party 34.9%
Center Party 20.4%
Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) 15.3%
Social Democratic Party (SDE) 9.4%
Estonia 200 8.4%
Isamaa 6.2%
NASA’s Estonian twins
(Postimees)
“Two twin brothers from Estonia became top developers of NASA space technology during a career spanning 50 years. Arthur Ruitberg, nine minutes younger than his brother Edward, built devices for the Cassini spacecraft and the Mars rover that’s still on the red planet, while Edward became the deputy head of the Hubble program after starting out at NASA as an engineer.”
Jüri Kork: Another Esto who worked at NASA
(Wiki)
[I visited Jüri Kork (1927-2001) at his home in Greenbelt, Maryland many, many years ago. Extremely talented and accomplished engineer, poet, and had received a “Valgetähe IV klassi teenetemärk” in 2001. - Aavo]
To Bolster Cybersecurity, the US Should Look to Estonia
(Wired)
“For some key lessons, we must turn to Estonia.”
Russia Puts Pressure on Norway: Svalbard as the Bone of Contention
(Warsaw Institute)
“Moscow has accused Oslo of discriminating against Russian activity on the Svalbard archipelago. Sergey Lavrov has sent a letter to Norway’s Minister of Foreign Affairs regarding the matter and is awaiting a meeting. The Russians emphasise that they intend to intensify their activities on the islands located over 800 kilometres north of Scandinavia. Although the archipelago is not of great economic significance, for the Russian military it is an important point on the map of the Arctic, a region that is being heavily militarised by Moscow.”
Lukašenko: valgevenelased ei taha Venemaa osaks saada
(ERR)
“Venemaa juhtkond teeb vihjeid, et tahaks Valgevene vastutasuks ühtsete energiahindade eest Venemaaga ühendada, ütles Valgvene president Aleksandr Lukašenko kohtumisel Svetlagorski tselluloosikombinaadi töötajatega, edastas uudisteagentuur BelTA.”
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Thursday
13. February
__________
Moscow’s Anger over Tartu Treaty is about More than Estonia
by Paul Goble (8. Feb.)
“It is not just about borders as some imagine or about state continuity as others insist but in addition, it is about the difference in values held by those in power in Moscow and those defended by the people of Estonia as a full-fledged member of the Western democratic world, the editor of the Tallinn-based Region.Expert portal says.”
—
“Moscow views [the treaty] as having lost all meaning and import because of Estonia’s supposedly voluntary joining the USSR in 1940.”
Kus Eestis kliimamuutuste tõttu põleb ja uputab?
(Novaator)
“Euroopa Keskkonnagentuur (EEA) pani möödunud kümnendi jooksul ilmunud teadustööde põhjal kokku kaardid, mis võtavad kokku Eestit ja ülejäänud Euroopat kliimamuutuste jätkumisel ähvardavad ohud.”
Climate change impacts in Europe
(European Environment Agency)
“Maps present a story about how Europe might be affected by key climate hazards such as droughts, floods, forest fires and sea level rise during the 21st century and beyond. These maps are based on different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and climate models and have been published already in various EEA reports and indicators.”
Eesti põllumaa koondub üha enam suurtootjate kätte
(Novaator)
“Eesti põllumajandustootjate arv on viimase 20 aastaga oluliselt vähenenud ja praeguseks on enamik põllumaast suurtootjate kasutuses. Sarnased muutused iseloomustavad kogu Euroopat, kuid protsessi saab pidurdada, selgub Maaülikooli teadlaste uuringust.”
“The Changing Structure and Concentration of Agricultural Land Holdings in Estonia.”
- by Evelin Jürgenson and Marii Rasva
- by Evelin Jürgenson and Marii Rasva
Embracing Europe’s Power
by Josep Borrell - Project Syndicate
“Europeans must deal with the world as it is, not as they wish it to be. And that means relearning the language of power and combining the European Union's resources in a way that maximizes their geopolitical impact.”
__________
Wednesday
12. February
__________
Putin Keeps Stalin’s Crimes Under Wraps in WWII Battle With West
(Bloomberg via Moscow Times)
“As Russia prepares to mark the 75th anniversary of the World War II victory, President Vladimir Putin is stepping up his defense of Josef Stalin and digging in against calls to open up secret archives on the Soviet state’s killing of millions of its own citizens. People in places such as Butovo where more than 20,000 victims lie in a mass grave in a former Czarist-era estate about 32 kilometers outside Moscow. Some were gassed to death in the back of trucks that transported them in their underwear to the killing grounds during Stalin’s “Great Terror” of 1937-38.”
Intervjuu: Kalev Stoicescu
(ERR | ETV)
“Eesti ei anna Stoicescu sõnul Venemaale põhjust meid rünnata, küll võib Venemaa ja Lääneriikide ja NATO vahel leida aset kusagil mujal, näiteks Süürias. Me peame jälgima mis maailmas toimub. Venemaa võib näiteks hinnata, et USA pole võimeline end Euroopas kaitsma. Lisaks tuleb vaadata ka hübriidohte, peame oleme valvsad.”
Russians Think Triumphant Trump Is More Their Man Than Ever
by Julia Davis, Daily Beast
“Russian state media have welcomed enthusiastically the recent U.S. Senate acquittal of President Donald J. Trump. Having predicted this outcome for his impeachment trial, Russian experts and state-media pundits are anticipating beneficial side effects for the Kremlin as Trump is more Trump—and more Russia’s Trump—than ever.”
—
“Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent invitation to Trump to attend Victory Day festivities in Moscow this spring is designed to bring the U.S. president ever deeper into the Kremlin fold. Appearing on Sunday Evening With Vladimir Soloviev, politician Sergey Stankevich asserted, “Donald Trump has to come to Moscow in May, no doubt about it. He is obligated to be here.”
Interview: Ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor
(The New Yorker)
“Impeachment, Russia, and the Law of the Jungle.”
__________
Tuesday
11. February
__________
Estonia's foreign policy focuses on protecting national interests
(ERR)
“Minister of Foreign Affairs Urmas Reinsalu gave the annual foreign policy address at the Estonian Parliament, presenting an overview of the main foreign policy actions of Estonia.”
Õiguskomisjon pöördub valitsuse poole, et langetada otsus Estonia vraki ülestõstmise osas
(Delfi)
“Komisjoni hinnang on, et ühepoolselt pole Eestil võimalik seda teha ja edasi tuleb valitsusel kaaluda, kas algatada riikidevahelised kõnelused veealuste uuringute läbiviimiseks või vraki ülestõstmiseks.”
NATO Seen Favorably Across Member States
(Pew Research)
“NATO is generally seen in a positive light across publics within the alliance, despite lingering tensions between the leaders of individual member countries. … Many in member countries express reservations about fulfilling Article 5’s collective defense obligations.”
The Thinning Belarus-Russia Relationship
(Carnegie Moscow Center)
“Any hopes that the friendship between Russia and Belarus could be salvaged were dashed by their two presidents’ energy prices summit on February 7 in Sochi.”
Integrating Belarusians into the Russian Federation Would Be Very Difficult, Experts Say
by Paul Goble
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/02/integrating-belarusians-into-russian.html
by Paul Goble
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/02/integrating-belarusians-into-russian.html
Very high-stakes game of chicken between Russia and Belarus
by Brian Whitmore
Latvia and Lithuania begin to tackle a chronic scourge: suicide
(Christian Science Monitor)
“Unfortunately, both countries share a less happy distinction when it comes to suicide. While they have made considerable progress in overcoming their global-high rates of suicide, significant obstacles remain. Perhaps the most stubborn is the stigma attached to mental illness and seeking help for it, a vestige of the Soviet era. But more recently, authorities in both countries have started to make modest headway against a longstanding reluctance to treat mental illness, including suicidal or potentially suicidal patients.”
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Monday
10. February
__________
Kalev Stoicescu: mõjukate riikide mured a. D. 2020
(Postimees)
“Välispoliitika aasta algus oli tormiline ning tõenäoliselt jätkub samas vaimus. Rahvusvahelist üldsust raputanud sündmustest ja nende mõjust Eestile kirjutab Rahvusvahelise Kaitseuuringute Keskuse teadur ja kolumnist Kalev Stoicescu.”
Eesti, Läti ja Soome loodavad jõuda ulatusliku kaitsekoostööni
(ERR | Postimees)
“Eesti, Läti ja Soome kirjutasid alla ühisele soomukite arendamise tehnilisele leppele, mille eesmärk on ühishange, mis nelja aasta pärast võiks viia kolme riigi ulatusliku kaitsekoostööni …”
—
How Kremlin propaganda tested Vilnius’ wariness
(Lithuanian Tribune)
“… Vilnius knows, why Trojan Horses coming from the East must be carefully filtered out, as well as why the Western world must be warned of it, the Mayor of Vilnius, Remigijus Šimašius wrote.”
Vene saadik Eestis: e-viisade numbrid ületasid ka kõige optimistlikumaid ootusi
“Eelmise aasta 1. oktoobrist kuni selle aasta jaanuari lõpuni väljastas Venemaa välisministeerium üle 100 000 tasuta elektroonilise viisa Peterburi ja Leningradi oblasti külastamiseks, neist pea 30 protsenti väljastati Eesti elanikele.”
Loe lähemalt: https://www.postimees.ee/6896772/vene-saadik-eestis-e-viisade-numbrid-uletasid-ka-koige-optimistlikumaid-ootusi
Military: ‘Cold Response 2020’
(Norwegian Armed Forces)
“The Norwegian Armed Forces will conduct exercise Cold Response together with allied and partner nations in March 2020. The winter exercise Cold Response will take place in an area that stretches from the town of Narvik to Finnmark district in northern Norway. The main part of the exercise will be located in the district of Troms. Activities related to the exercise will take place from 2 to 18 March.”
War in the Arctic
(Tom Dispatch)
“In early March, an estimated 7,500 American combat troops will travel to Norway to join thousands of soldiers from other NATO countries in a massive mock battle with imagined invading forces from Russia. In this futuristic simulated engagement -- it goes by the name of Exercise Cold Response 2020 -- allied forces will “conduct multinational joint exercises with a high-intensity combat scenario in demanding winter conditions,” or so claims the Norwegian military anyway.”
—
“To appreciate just how risky any NATO-Russian clash in Norway’s far north would be, consider the region’s geography and the strategic factors that have led Russia to concentrate so much military power there. And all of this, by the way, will be playing out in the context of another existential danger: climate change. The melting of the Arctic ice cap and the accelerated exploitation of Arctic resources are lending this area ever greater strategic significance.”
Europe Needs a China Strategy
(Lawfare)
“… neither the EU nor individual European leaders have taken the meaningful steps needed to close existing vulnerabilities in Europe’s relationship with China, stand up for European values of democracy and human rights, or strengthen Europe’s resolve against Chinese economic and political pressure. … The lack of strategy to address China’s growing role in Europe has been compounded by domestic instability within Europe.”
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