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29 April, 2022

 


Tallinn Walking Tour 
(Nomad Epicureans, May 2019)
[A self-guided 3.7 kilometers (2.3 miles) walking tour through the center of Tallinn, focusing on the areas of the UNESCO World Heritage Old Town and Toompea.]
















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Friday 29. April


VĂ€lisministrite sĂ”nul on Soome ja Rootsi valmis sĂŒvendama sĂ”jalist koostööd
(ERR)
“Rootsi ja Soome on valmis sĂŒvendama sĂ”jalist koostööd juhul, kui julgeolekuolukord LÀÀnemerel halveneb, ĂŒtlesid kahe riigi vĂ€lisministrid Helsingis kohtudes. Reedese kohtumise eesmĂ€rk oli hinnata, kas naaberriigid esitavad taotluse astuda NATO liikmeks samal ajal. Ajakirjanduses on spekuleeritud, et see vĂ”iks toimuda mai keskel, kui Soome president Sauli Niinistö on riigivisiidil Rootsis.”



The NATO Accession Sweden Never Saw Coming - Finland has taken the lead
(Foreign Policy)
“On May 17, President Sauli Niinisto of Finland is scheduled to arrive in Sweden. He’ll meet with King Carl XVI Gustaf and the Swedish government before leaving the next day. And sometime during his visit, Sweden and Finland are expected to announce they’re both applying for membership of NATO. Finland has—remarkably—taken the lead, and Sweden is likely to follow, simply because if Finland joins there’s really no reason to not to do the same. Sweden is, in fact, NATO’s luckiest-ever joiner, a country swept into the alliance without having to lobby for membership and without its government even expressing a desire to join.”





Number of refugees from Ukraine arriving in Estonia has stabilized
(ERR)
“As of Thursday (28. April) , 33,927 have arrived in Estonia intending to stay for the foreseeable future - this is around 2.5 percent of Estonia's population. Approximately 500 new refugees are arriving in Estonia every day and usually around half are in transit to other countries. The minister said it is not known how many have already returned to Ukraine.”






Raekoja platsi kohviku Putini teemaline plakat pĂŒĂŒab pilke ja tekitab omanikule probleeme
(Postimees)
“Nii mitmedki kommenteerisid Twitteris, et lĂ€heksid plakati nĂ€gemise pĂ€rast kasvĂ”i uuesti kohvikusse. Â«Oleksin kolmekordse jootraha jĂ€tnud, kui see sĂ”num oleks seal olnud. Ma arvan, et nĂŒĂŒd pean tagasi tulema!» nentis möödunud nĂ€dalal kohvikut vĂ€isanud pealinlane. «Ma arvan, et ma ei ole kunagi nĂ€inud vanalinna tahvlitel nii otsekohest ja vĂ”imsat sĂ”numit,» tĂ”des teine.”





University of Tartu: Why Estonian entrepreneurs are so successful
(Estonian World)
“
 detailed planning and organisation clearly translates into a company’s performance. Hence, the study looked at how much Estonian companies had invested a great deal of time in thoroughly detailing their goals; nearly all Estonian companies had strategic plans, although the most successful of these had plans in place for the next three years at a minimum. They know exactly what they do and why they do it. 
 Apart from having a clear vision, keeping employees happy topped the list of priorities for managers. In questionnaires and focus group interviews that involved nearly 500 leaders and managers all over the country, the respondents said finding and keeping workers were their absolute priorities.”



Estonia moving ahead with plans for a 1.1GW wind farm in the Baltic Sea
(Wind Power Monthly)
“Enefit Green, the clean energy unit of state-controlled utility Eesti Energia, has hired engineering consultancy Ramboll to prepare a preliminary design for the 1100MW Hiiu wind farm. The project is planned for a site about 12km north of Estonia’s second largest island, Hiiumaa. It estimates that the project could generate up to 5TWh annually – equivalent to half of Estonia’s electricity consumption. The project would use 74 turbines with individual power ratings of about 15MW.”






Thursday 28. April


Kohviku seinale Z-tÀhti sodinud mees sai seitse pÀeva aresti
(Postimees)
“TeisipĂ€eva, 26. aprilli Ă”htupoolikul avastasid Tartu Vabaduse puiestee kohviku Riffen töötajad, et nende töökoha seintele oli soditud Z-tĂ€hti ja loosung «Slava Rossija». Selles vÀÀrteos tunnistas Tartu maakohus tĂ€na sĂŒĂŒdi 38-aastase Sergei Milovi ning mĂ”istis talle karistuseks seitse pĂ€eva aresti. 
”







Moraalimajakas Eestist sai sÔja ajal Venemaa tankerite paradiis
(Eesti PĂ€evaleht - PAYWALL)
“Eesti sadamatest on saanud Venemaa sĂ”jamasinat toetava kĂŒtuseĂ€ri tĂ€htis sĂ”lmpunkt, mis kriibib silma kĂ”ikjal Baltimaades ja Euroopas. Eesti PĂ€evalehe andmeanalĂŒĂŒs nĂ€itab, et sĂ”ja ajal saabub tankereid Venemaalt Eestisse rohkem kui enne sĂ”da.”



Osa gaasimaksetest Ukraina ĂŒlesehitamiseks? Scholzi tuleb veel veenda
(Postimees)
“Peaminister Kaja Kallas kĂ€is sel nĂ€dalal visiidil Saksamaal, kus muu hulgas ĂŒritas toetust leida ideele suunata osa Venemaale mĂ”eldud gaasimaksetest Ukraina sĂ”jakahjudeks. Idee jĂ€rgi vĂ”iks kindla protsendi â€“ vahemikus 5 kuni 15 – maha vĂ”tta sellest summast, mida Euroopa Liidu riigid maksavad Venemaale gaasi eest, ja suunata summa blokeeritud pangakontole, mis avatakse alles sĂ”jategevuse lĂ”ppemise jĂ€rel ning mida kasutatakse siis Ukraina taristut tabanud purustuste kompenseerimiseks.”







Russia cuts off gas to Poland, Bulgaria
(Washington Post, 26. April)
“Russia’s state-controlled gas company shut off the supply of natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday, and the Kremlin warned that other countries could face the same fate, escalating tensions between Russia and Europe over the war in Ukraine.”







Friends no longer, Ukraine removes Russian statues and street names
(The Guardian)
“A 40-year-old statue, depicting a Ukrainian and a Russian worker on a plinth, was pulled down on the order of local authorities in Kyiv. It is one of the first steps of a plan to demolish about 60 monuments and to rename dozens of streets associated with the Soviet Union, Russia and Russian figures, including the writers Tolstoy, Dostoevsky and Pushkin, as a result of the war between the two countries.”







Russian cyber aim: Digital dossiers
(AP)
“Russia’s relentless digital assaults on Ukraine may have caused less damage than many anticipated. But most of its hacking is focused on a different goal that gets less attention but has chilling potential consequences: data collection. Ukrainian agencies breached on the eve of the Feb. 24 invasion include the Ministry of Internal Affairs, which oversees the police, national guard and border patrol. A month earlier, a national database of automobile insurance policies was raided during a diversionary cyberattack that defaced Ukrainian websites.”
—
“The hacks, paired with prewar data theft, likely armed Russia with extensive details on much of Ukraine’s population, cybersecurity and military intelligence analysts say. It’s information Russia can use to identify and locate Ukrainians most likely to resist an occupation, and potentially target them for internment or worse.”
—
“Fantastically useful information if you’re planning an occupation,” Jack Watling, a military analyst at the U.K. think tank Royal United Services Institute, said of the auto insurance data, “knowing exactly which car everyone drives and where they live and all that.”






Wednesday 27. April


Estonia was one of only three states to have kept Kyiv embassy running
(ERR)
“While many other states are now reinstalling their Kyiv representations, only Poland, the Vatican and Estonia maintained their embassies there 
”





Estonian president signs off on law banning pro-Ukraine invasion symbols
(ERR)
“The ban on hostile symbols comes not only against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, but also both on the 15th anniversary of the "Bronze Soldier" riots and less than two weeks before "Victory Day", May 9, celebrated in Russia as marking the end of World War Two. The law states that not only is joining the armed forces of a foreign power involved in an act of aggression or relating to that power, as well as supporting such acts financially, are punishable by law, but also that any symbols associated with the glorification of the Russian military or of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the accompanying war crimes must not be worn in public.”





NATO’s Nordic Expansion - Finland and Sweden to Transform European Security
By Carl Bildt, Foreign Affairs
“Putin’s immediate aim is to subdue Ukraine, but he is also waging a war against the West. The Russian leader and his acolytes have made it clear that they wish to replace the post-1989 security order in Europe with arrangements that impinge on the sovereignty of other countries. And just as the collapse of the Soviet Union led Sweden and Finland to reconsider their relationships to Europe, the current political earthquake has prompted them to reconsider fundamental elements of their security policies, including their relationships to NATO.”






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Putin’s War
__________


Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: 28. April 2022
(ISW)
[ISW produces excellent, detailed, open-source intelligence analysis.]



Kolonel Janno MÀrk: Ukrainas on sÔjategevusega jÔutud patiseisu
(ERR)
“Vene vĂ€gede peamisel rĂŒnnakusuunal Luhanski ja Donetski oblastis ehk idarindel pole nad otsustavat lĂ€bimurret ega edu saavutanud. Rindel on kĂŒll edenetud taktikalisel tasandil, kuid vallutatud territooriumi pole suudetud julgestada, ĂŒtles MĂ€rk. Taktikalisel tasandil on Vene vĂ€ed edu saavutanud Severodonetski, Popasna ja RubiĆŸne linna suunal, kuid Ukraina vĂ€ed on lĂ€bimurdeliinid kinni panna, lisas ta.”






Russia is really not in a position to challenge the West and expand this war
(New Eastern Europe)
“An interview with Curtis Michael “Mike” Scaparrotti, a retired United States Army four-star general who served as the Commander of United States European Command and as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe.”



Vicious Blame Game Reportedly Erupts Among Putin’s Security Forces
(CEPA, 25. April)
“Russia’s army is deeply unhappy at the new and curtailed strategy Putin has ordered them to adopt in Ukraine, abandoning the big goal of capturing Kyiv for a much more modest objective of invading Donbas, in the country’s east. They are pointing the finger at other agencies, the FSB’s foreign intelligence branch primarily, for misinforming the president about the true conditions inside Ukraine that have led to failure. Other FSB departments appear to share the military’s analysis. 
 This is the very first time the siloviki are putting distance between themselves and the president. Which opens up all sorts of possibilities.”



The Power Struggle After Putin
(Foreign Affairs)
“There is no reason to think Putin faces an immediate risk of assassination. Nor does a coup or a popular revolution seem to be in the offing any time soon. But Putin is 69 years old and possibly in ill health. Russian investigative journalists have alleged that he may have had thyroid cancer. Whether he dies in office, is deposed, or willingly gives up power, Putin’s reign over Russia will end one way or another. Far from a stabilizing event, however, the inevitable end of his rule will be an uncertain and likely perilous moment for Russia. 
”



Russia Ramps Up the Pressure in Eastern Ukraine
(Spiegel, 26. April)
“With Russia now concentrating its forces in eastern Ukraine, the war has completely changed character. In the open fields of the Donbas, Putin's army is seeking to leverage its firepower advantage. But the Ukrainians believe they still have a chance – if they get enough support from the West.”


















The Fall of Moscow
(Politico-Europe)
“Russians and Ukrainians share a history going back hundreds of years. Most Russians have Ukrainian blood and vice-versa, and the two nations were, until very recently, intrinsically intertwined. It is indeed a tragedy for some Russians that Ukraine has chosen to embrace the West, but the divorce fuels regret and disappointment — not anger. Instead, liberal Muscovites admire Ukraine for having the courage to break free from its Soviet past.”
—  
“But Russians don’t control the narrative in their own country. Vladimir Putin does. And he refuses to accept the disappointment and regret, always choosing to escalate instead. He can’t stomach the idea of a people so close to Russia turning their backs on their Slavic brothers. The idea of NATO membership and U.S. missiles in Ukraine is a “red line” in his paranoid worldview. And so he chose a brutal war to assert raw power over Ukraine again, just as the Czars had done centuries ago.”
—
“The glitzy bars and Michelin-star restaurants are now empty, and Moscow’s almost as quiet as it was during COVID-19. The city is still lit up at night like it’s Christmas time, but now Russians stay home and drink away their sorrows as the Russian ruble turns to rubble. â€Šâ€



Kremlin Expanding War into Moldova?
(RFERL | The Guardian)
“A series of alleged attacks inside Transdniester, a breakaway region of Moldova, has triggered a stream of people to leave and deepened fears that Russia is bent on expanding its war beyond Ukraine.”
—










Transnistria risks being dragged into Russia's war in Ukraine
(Euronews)
“Tensions have increased in recent days in and around the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria, a place few in Europe have heard of but which could easily become a new flashpoint for the war in Ukraine. Explosions that have occurred in Transnistria over the past two days have raised concerns that the war across the border in Ukraine could soon be extended there.”






Belarusian railway workers helped thwart Russia’s attack on Kyiv
(Washington Post)(
“Starting in the earliest days of the invasion in February, a clandestine network of railway workers, hackers and dissident security forces went into action to disable or disrupt the railway links connecting Russia to Ukraine through Belarus, wreaking havoc on Russian supply lines. The attacks have drawn little attention outside Belarus amid the drama of the Russian onslaught and the bloody aftermath of Russia’s humiliating retreat.”



Fires burn in Siberia, but Russian firefighting assets are in Ukraine
(Washington Post)
“This month, wildfires have already appeared on the peatlands of Russia’s Far East, activating firefighting services. The Russian Federal Forestry Agency reported that it extinguished more than 600 fires over 37,000 hectares (about 91,000 acres) nationwide last week.”






And Finally:


Did Putin Just Threaten To Attack NATO In A ‘Lightning Speed’ Strike?
(1945)
“Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned this week that Russia believes NATO countries are already engaged in a war against Russia, potentially setting the stage and creating a pretext for Russia to attack. “The danger is serious, real,” he said of nuclear conflict with the West. “And we must not underestimate it. NATO, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy. War means war.” 
—
“While talk of military conflict with the West has increased in recent weeks, an attack against the West would likely be among Russia’s last resort options.”



Even if Russia Uses a Nuke, We Probably Won’t—but Putin Would Still Pay Dearly
(The Daily Beast)
“Former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik-Ilves worries that the use of a nuclear weapon would rattle many European leaders. “A whole slew of them might immediately sue for peace, cave to the Russians. Germany would likely lead the crew.” 
—
“However, he adds: “To use a nuclear weapon breaks the ultimate taboo. There is no moral distinction to be made between a ‘tactical nuke’ and a strategic one. It would be a complete game-changer for the world. We should signal publicly and privately starting now that it would mean complete and total isolation. All embassies shut. All visas canceled. All Russian properties confiscated.”



Why would Vladimir Putin use tactical nuclear weapons? 
Opinion by Peggy Noonan, WSJ
“To change the story. To shock and destabilize his adversaries. To scare the people of North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries so they’ll force their leaders to back away. To remind the world—and Russians—that he does have military power. To avoid a massive and public military defeat. To win.”
—
“Mr. Putin talks about nuclear weapons a lot. He did it again Wednesday: In a meeting with politicians in St. Petersburg, he said if anyone intervenes in Ukraine and “creates unacceptable threats for us that are strategic in nature,” the Russian response will be “lightning fast.” He said: “We have all the tools for this that no one else can boast of having. We won’t boast about it, we’ll use them, if needed.”  He’s talked like this since the invasion. It’s a tactic: He’s trying to scare everybody.”
—
“That doesn’t mean the threat is empty.”



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