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This is the last newsletter for 2025
Issues # 499 and # 500 will be sent out in January.
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Aavo
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Cover Art:
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‘Rebooting a Nation: The Incredible Rise of Estonia’
Foreign Affairs - Book Review
“… E-Government, and the Startup Revolution.”
—
“How This Statue Turned a Small State into a Cybersecurity Superpower.”
YouTube
Kui me ei taha näha uut rinnet Narva jõel, on ainult üks valik
Jüri Toomepuu
Estonian World Review
“Ukraina kaotus ei oleks mingi kauge geopoliitiline efekt, mida jälgida Brüsseli koridoridest. See tähendaks reaalselt uue rinde avanemist Narva jõe lähistel. Putini selgelt väljendatud soov taastada Stalini impeeriumi «hiilgus» tähendab, et ta naabrid võivad olla tema järgmised sihtmärgid – see pole teooria, vaid Eesti kurb ajalooline kogemus. Seetõttu ei ole küsimus ainult Trumpi poliitikas või USA kõhklustes. Küsimus on Euroopa selgroos. Küsimus on Eesti julguses ja kaitsevalmiduses.”
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“Tegelikult on olemas ainult üks valik: toetada Ukraina vabastamist, tugevdada Euroopa kaitsevõimet ja anda Putinile selge sõnum, et ta vallutushulluse hind on ta enda elu.”
The bear in the Baltics: Reassessing the Russian threat in Estonia
By Jennifer Kavanagh and Jeremy Shapiro
European Council on Foreign Relations
Policy Brief
“… almost four years of attritional warfare in Ukraine have drained Russia’s financial, personnel and military resources. Its fighting power is diminished and, as things stand, it lacks the capabilities to mount either a traditional military offensive or a hybrid attack.”
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“It will take Russia some 5-10 years after the end of the war in Ukraine to refit and rearm for such an attack. To ensure Estonia’s security, the country and its allies need to continue developing their defence capability now and in the coming years—even if they have minimal assistance from the US.”
https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-bear-in-the-baltics-reassessing-the-russian-threat-in-estonia/
28 page PDF:
“Estonia prepares to win, not merely survive.”
Defense24
“Shelters for a million Estonians could be built in two years, claims Jaanis Otsla.”
ERR Opinion
“Unustage miljardid, meil kulub 12 aastat – USA ütles sisuliselt, et tuleb luua Euroopa armee.”
By Eerik-Niiles Kross, Postimees
“When America steps aside, who defends Europe?”
By Eerik-Niiles Kross, Estonian World
“Current Weapons Act hampers national defence.”
By Priit Rööp, Postimees
“Estonia to allocate wartime crisis roles to 56,000 from private sector.”
ERR
“Estonia Begins Erecting Baltic Bunker Wall on Russia Border.”
Defense News
“Estonia installs first bunkers on Baltic Defense Line.”
ERR
“Estonia shows Europe how to prepare for war.”
EU Today
Russian border guards briefly entered Estonian territory
Baltic News Network
“At around ten o’clock in the morning on the 17th of December, Estonian border guards noticed several Russian border guards on a boat in the Narva River near the Vasknarva pier. The Russian hovercraft stopped at a stone pier located on the Russian-Estonian border at the river’s outlet from Lake Peipus. Three of the border guards got out on the pier and moved along it. Thus, the Russians crossed the border, crossing the pier to the Estonian side. Then the Russian border guards returned to the boat and returned to the Russian side of the river. … After the incident, the number of patrols in the area were increased.”
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“In recent years, Estonia has expressed concerns about the personnel hired by the Russian authorities. Taro said that over the years the composition of the border guard personnel has become very unstable, and for some reason the Russians no longer have permanent personnel.”
https://bnn-news.com/russian-border-guards-entered-estonian-territory-275471
“Estonian Interior Minister: Russians don’t know how to read maps.”
BNN
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| Artist Serhiy Kolyada | 2025-12-19 |
“Vasknarva: Why must Russian vessels ask Estonia to enter Lake Peipus?”
ERR
“Topograafilised juhmid: Venemaa eitab Vasknarvas piiririkkumist.”
Postimees
“Estonia hands protest note to Russia after unauthorised border crossing.”
ERR
Tallinn is quietly reshaping the future of cruise tourism in Northern Europe
Travel and Tour World
“A new shore power project at the city’s main cruise harbor is set to transform how ships operate while docked. For travelers, this means cleaner air, calmer surroundings, and a more enjoyable arrival in one of Europe’s most charming capital.”
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“Estonia’s environmental spending nears €1bn.”
Estonian World
“Estonia's Christmas tourism surpasses pre-pandemic level.”
ERR
“Estonia’s Christmas Tourism Breaks Records.”
TTW
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Around the Baltic Sea
Karelian Language is Dying in the Karelian Republic
By Paul Goble
“… because of Moscow’s policies and the flight of Karelians to Finland.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/12/karelian-language-dying-in-karelian.html
EU countries on the border with Russia meet in Helsinki
Radio Sweden | Baltic Times
“On Tuesday, the leaders of Bulgaria, Poland, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, Latvia, Sweden and Estonia met in Helsinki and discussed how they can co-operate on areas like economy, procurement, standards and trade, so that more money from the EU can be directed to defend the union's eastern flank.
https://www.sverigesradio.se/artikel/eu-countries-get-together-to-strengthen-defence-in-the-east
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Lithuanians decry plans to build military grounds near Suwalki Gap
LRT
“Residents of the Kapčiamiestis in southwestern Lithuania are worried about plans to establish a military training area, saying it will result in trees being cut down and their livelihoods destroyed. Local people say they signed the petition and will hold protests.”
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“The 70-kilometre-wide area connects the Baltic states with Poland and is flanked by Russia’s Kaliningrad and Belarus on either side. Officials previously said the area could potentially be seized by Moscow and its ally Minsk in the event of a military conflict.”
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Meduza
“Exploring the Baltic states' rich military heritage.”
LSM
“Crisis simulation reveals weaknesses in Riga’s civil defence system.”
BNN
“Lithuania arrests 21 in alleged cigarette smuggling ring using weather balloons from Belarus.”
Euronews
“EU can prove Trump wrong on Europe by agreeing on Russian assets plan, Estonian PM says.”
Politico Europe
“The US Should Cement Its Presence in the Baltics.”
Hudson Institute
“U.S. Congress Secures the Baltic Security Initiative Worth $175 Million.”
The Baltic Sentinel
“Frontline states want EU cash as Russian threat intensifies.”
Politico Europe
“Latvia and Finland seek to host the 2030 ice hockey world championship.”
BNN
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The U.S. Administration’s new National Security Strategy
and Europe
By Anne Applebaum
The Atlantic
“The document’s authors seem to derive their hatred of Europe from a series of false perceptions—or, perhaps, from a form of projection. The authors fear, for example, that “certain NATO members will become majority non-European” very soon. Because they are presumably not talking about non-European Turkey and Canada, the clear implication is that countries such as France and Germany have so much immigration from outside Europe that they will be majority nonwhite. And yet, it is the United States, not Europe, that is far likely to become “majority minority” in the coming years.”
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“The security strategy also talks, bizarrely, about Europe being on the verge of “civilizational erasure,” which is not language used by many European politicos, even those in far-right parties. Carl Bildt, the former Swedish prime minister and foreign minister, has called this sentiment “to the right of the extreme right.” In multiple indices, after all—health, happiness, standard of living—European countries regularly rank higher than the United States. Compared with Americans, Europeans live longer, are less likely to be living on the streets, and are less likely to die in mass shootings.”
“Europe's "Civilizational Erasure.”
By Michael Ignatieff
“U.S. National Security Strategy calls for limiting NATO expansion.”
Breaking Defense
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Putin’s Forever War
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Dec. 18, 2025
ISWS
“Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov continue to publicly demonstrate their commitment to achieving Russia’s original war aims while exaggerating Russian battlefield gains.”
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“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to signal his commitment to negotiations as high-ranking Kremlin officials continue to publicly and explicitly reject significant points of the peace plan currently under discussion.”
Russia is preparing for another 'year of war’ says Zelenskyy
France24
“… after his counterpart Vladimir Putin said Moscow would "certainly" achieve its war objectives, with or without a peace deal.”
“We didn’t start this war, says Putin.”
Meduza
“Putini väitel ei ründa Venemaa kedagi, kui teda koheldakse austusega.”
Postimees
“Putin vows to conquer ‘historic lands’ in Ukraine.”
Meduza
“Why Russia’s Shadow Fleet Sails Unhindered.”
CEPA
Putin sends Cossacks to Ukraine’s front lines
France24
“Once prized fighters under the Tsars, Russia’s Cossack population was ostracised by authorities during the Soviet era. Under Putin, they have reintegrated into Russian society, acting as a supplementary police force and restoring their military status on the front lines in Ukraine.”
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20251215-putin-sends-cossak-warriors-to-the-front-line-ukraine
Russia’s Attack on Political Emigrants
CEPA
“Russia has a long history of blacklisting entire categories of its own citizens. In this sense, the proposed measures echo the fate of the so-called “former people,” or lishentsy (“the deprived”), in the 1920s and 1930s. Officially, members of the former ruling classes were merely stripped of their voting rights. In reality, they — along with their families — were shut out of employment, education, and public life altogether. The difference is that Soviet legislation targeted those who remained inside the country, while Piskarev’s draft is aimed explicitly at those who left.”
https://cepa.org/article/emigres-in-putins-crosshairs/
Russia’s Potemkin Village Society
By: Antonia Ferrier, and Meaghan Mobbs
National Interest
“Life for the average Russian is marked by poverty, stagnation, substance abuse, high suicide rates, and limited opportunity. Roughly 18 million Russians—about 12.5 percent of the population—live below the national poverty line. Median household wealth in Russia is less than one-tenth that of Germany, and more than 60 percent of Russian households lack enough savings to cover even three months of basic expenses. Outside major cities, millions still lack reliable indoor plumbing or modern sanitation.
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/russias-potemkin-village-society
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