Decoding Putin’s Baltic Strategy
By: Eric Shiraev and Holger Mölder
(The National Interest)
“Estonia’s transparent institutions, efficient e-governance, and NATO membership symbolize everything Putin’s Russia is not (and cannot be) under his rule. By undermining a successful counter-model on his doorstep, Putin seeks to reinforce the legitimacy of his own authoritarian rule.”
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“Destabilization—not domination—is the keyword in understanding Russia’s anti-Western grand strategy. Lacking an appealing ideology to rival Western liberal democracy, Moscow instead seeks to undermine the legitimacy and stability of its neighbors through psychological warfare, disinformation, and provocation. Estonia, fully integrated into NATO and the EU since 2004, has found itself on the front lines of this campaign. ”
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“Russia’s influence operations in Estonia have triggered the growth of “culture of strategic fear” — a climate in which historical grievances and unresolved legal debates are amplified to stir domestic dissent and paralyze political decision-making. Moscow’s disinformation campaigns are related to history and legitimacy—almost exactly in the same form that such claims circulated in Russia after the invasion of Crimea and before the 2022 war in Ukraine. One of the goals of such claims is to create internal division between the Russian-speaking diaspora, other Estonians, and those who prefer a settlement with Russia on its terms in exchange for stability.”
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“At the heart of this contestation is the long-delayed finalization of the Estonian-Russian border treaty …”
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/decoding-vladimir-putins-baltic-strategy
Estonia to spend over €10 billion on defense between 2026-2029
(ERR | Kaitseministeerium)
“The Defence Forces aim to develop a comprehensive capability encompassing drone detection, countermeasures, strike, reconnaissance, and surveillance. At the same time, efforts are being made to integrate these tools into tactical operations—from squad to division level,” Pevkur noted. Estonia has already procured a significant range of drones and unmanned systems, such as Blue Spear anti-ship missiles and combat drones, and under the new plan, further acquisitions are planned. … Approximately one-quarter of the near-term investments will go toward ammunition stockpiles.”
https://news.err.ee/1609757685/estonia-to-spend-over-10-billion-on-defense-between-2026-2029
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https://kaitseministeerium.ee/en/news/estonia-invest-over-eu10-billion-defence-2026-2029
Russian border guard vessel violated Estonia's maritime border for 35 minutes
(ERR)
“A Russian SVETLYAK-class border guard vessel, SOCHI 500, entered Estonian territorial waters east of Vaindloo Island without permission and remained in Estonian waters for approximately 35 minutes, the Estonian Defense Forces said in a statement on Monday. The violation was detected at a depth of up to half a kilometer inside Estonia's territorial sea boundary.”
https://news.err.ee/1609755954/russian-border-guard-vessel-violates-estonia-s-maritime-border
“Estonia Protests After Russian Patrol Boat Violates Maritime Border.” - The Maritime Executive
“Välisministeerium kutsus Eesti merepiiri rikkumise pärast välja Venemaa ajutise asjuri.” - Välisministeerium
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(EstoNews)
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Russian propaganda exploits Estonian seniors on social networks
(ERR | BNN)
“… despite the high level of media literacy in the society.”
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”One of the most widespread Russian disinformation narratives is about Estonia as a failed state. Russia has used a similar tactic in the past against Ukraine. This involves amplifying content that questions the ability of the institutions of the Republic of Estonia to function, as well as the legitimacy of political decisions. Also posing a security threat is the spread of so-called Soviet nostalgia. The propaganda presents this era as a time of prosperity, ignoring the shortcomings of the period. In addition, these narratives instill in people the notion of the decline of Western values. In doing so, they demonize NATO, the EU, and the values of liberal democracy.”
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“Older generations who feel nostalgic about the Soviet era are being exploited in this process.”
https://news.err.ee/1609756518/russian-propaganda-targets-estonia-s-senior-citizens
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https://bnn-news.com/russian-propaganda-exploits-estonian-seniors-270298
“Arvamus: Venelastele räägitakse, et kogu Euroopat tabab kohe tõeline apokalüpsis.” - Postimees
Estonia’s young defence tech sector punches above its weight
(GVC)
“Estonia was poised to establish a new defence tech scene quickly. For one thing, it could draw on its well developed tech roots. It was Estonian programmers who developed the proprietary software for Skype, for example. Pehk, of Enterprise Estonia, points out that the country has more unicorns per capita than any other in Europe – such as the ride-hailing service Bolt.”
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“And since the country regained its independence after the fall of the Soviet Union, there has always been a deep distrust of Russia. Marek Alliksso says that the 2014 invasion of Crimea was a wake up call that most of Europe failed to pay attention to, but in Estonia the prevailing belief was “Russia never changed.”
Eesti mammutitele andis hoobi maastiku kiire metsastumine
(Novaator)
“Tallinna Tehnikaülikooli (TTÜ) teadlaste hiljutine uuring näitab, et enam kui 11,000 aasta eest Eesti aladel elanud Euroopa viimastele mammutitele sai saatuslikuks piirkonna kiire metsastumine. Jääaja lõpu sooja kliima mõjul kadusid suurtele londilistele sobilikud avamaastikud, jättes mammutid nälga.”
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“Teadlased on ka juba mõnda aega teadnud, et Euroopa ühed viimased mammutid elasid just Eesti aladel. Parim tõestus sellele pärineb Puurmani kandist, kust leitud purihammaste vanus ulatub radiosüsiniku meetodi põhjal pelgalt 12,600–11,200 aastani.”
https://novaator.err.ee/1609756521/eesti-mammutitele-andis-hoobi-maastiku-kiire-metsastumine
“Rapid landscape afforestation spelled doom for Estonia's woolly mammoths.” - ERR
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“July's inflation in Estonia was 5.6 %.” - ERR
“Ämaris algas Itaalia F-35 hävitajate valvekord.” - Postimees
“Larger drone systems to start arriving in Estonia 2026-2027.” - ERR
"Estonia will buy more short-range anti-aircraft ‘Piorun’ missiles.” - Defense24
“Estonia shows off prison cells awaiting Swedish inmates.” - Reuters
“Estonia to Replace CV90 IFVs, Existing Fleet to Be Stored.” - Militaryi
“Estonia’s young defence tech sector punches above its weight.” - GCV
“Estonia’s NATO envoy warns: Europe can’t defend itself without Ukraine.” - Euromaidan Press
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Around the Baltic Sea
Interview: Baltic defense ministers Dovile Sakaliene, Andris Spruds and Hanno Pevkur
(Fox News)
“The 'best way' to ensure peace is to help Ukraine win war against Russia, Estonian defense Pevkurn said. He added that we cannot trust Russia.”
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6376142355112
Europe has ‘understanding and assumption’ of a US military drawdown there, Estonian Defense Minister Pevkur says
(Stars and Stripes)
“More details about an anticipated U.S. troop reduction in Europe are expected in the fall, Estonia’s defense chief said this week following recent talks at the Pentagon. Pevkur, in an interview Tuesday with Estonia’s ERR network, said he and other Baltic leaders were told by U.S. defense officials that more clarity on plans for American forces could come by October.”
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“While there is no indication how the Baltic states or any other county could be affected, ‘in Europe as a whole, a reduction is likely to take place,’ he added.”
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2025-07-31/us-troops-reductions-europe-18621476.html
“Berlin left in the dark as Washington weighs troop cuts in Europe.” - Politico
“Pentagon Hosted Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania To Strengthen European Defense.” - The Dallas Express
“Estonian defmin in Washington: NATO is very important for US.” - BNN
“No indication right now of US troop withdrawal from Baltic states.” - ERR
The Nordic-Baltic Eight’s Emerging Role in European Security
By Jakob Hallgren and Mark Rhinard
(Internationale Politik Quarterly)
“Until quite recently few outside policy circles would have heard of the Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8), the quietly influential forum linking the Nordic and Baltic states that has gained in political prominence since 2022. Created after the Cold War to guide the newly independent Baltic states toward Europe, the NB8 is now more visible, agile—and arguably more relevant — than ever. Amid Russia’s war on Ukraine, lingering questions about the United States’ long-term commitment to European security and rising geopolitical tensions, the NB8 is positioning itself as a new political force at the heart of regional cooperation. But as visibility and expectations grow, questions also arise about what and whether this informal grouping can deliver.”
https://ip-quarterly.com/en/forum-force-nb8s-emerging-role-european-security
The Baltic States and Finland do not recognize a Palestinian state
(New York Times)
[From the article “The Changing Map of Palestinian Recognition”.]
“Estonia has no plans to recognize Palestine.” - ERR
“Finnish governing parties split over Palestinian recognition.” - Yle
Lithuania’s prime minister steps down
(AP)
“… following investigations into his business dealings that prompted protests calling for his resignation.”
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“Paluckas, a newly established leader of the center-left Social Democrats, ascended to the role late last year after a three-party coalition formed following a parliamentary election in October in Lithuania. His entire Cabinet is also expected to resign, potentially leaving the Baltic country without an effective government weeks before Russia holds joint military exercises with Belarus.”
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“Baltics Scramble to Counter Hybrid Drone Threat." - CEPA
“Elon Muski algoritm Xis soodustab ideoloogilist nihet Euroopas.” - Postimees
“Leedu leidis lõpuks üles Valgevenest tulnud drooni.” - ERR
“Europe is ‘not ready’ for the Russian threat. At least it now has a plan.” - The Atlantic Council
“Trends in Baltic Sea collaboration amid geopolitical tension.” - SEI
“European countries to borrow billions from EU to rearm Ukraine.” - Politico
"Lithuania’s new defence strategy – how Lithuania is preparing for the worst-case scenario.” - The Lithuanian Tribune
“Lithuanian Armed Forces enter third day of drone search.” - LRT
“Latvia's Sēlija military base construction progressing as planned.” - LSM
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Russia’s Forever War
Ukrainian drones target St Petersburg as Putin attends scaled-down Navy Day
(Reuters)
“Ukrainian drones targeted St. Petersburg on Sunday, Russian authorities said, forcing the airport to close for five hours as Vladimir Putin marked Russia's Navy Day in the city, despite the earlier cancellation of its naval parade due to security concerns. St. Petersburg usually holds a large-scale, televised navy parade on Navy Day, which features a flotilla of warships and military vessels sailing down the Neva River and is attended by Putin.”
“Üha rohkem Ukraina naisi haarab relvad.” - Postimees
“Rünnakute arv Ukraina tsiviiltaristu pihta on suurenenud 600 protsendi võrra.” - Postimees
The rise and fall of Russia’s women-led demobilization movement
(Meduza)
“When Vladimir Putin ordered a military mobilization in late September 2022, the backlash was immediate. Hundreds of thousands of draft-age men fled the country, and mass protests broke out in dozens of Russian cities for the first time since the war’s early days. Since then, Russian women whose loved ones were drafted to fight in Ukraine have been calling on the authorities to send their men home. In fact, the women-led opposition to mobilization evolved into a diverse movement, comprising disparate groups that often found themselves at odds over the war itself. Pressure from the authorities only amplified these divisions — so much so that the demobilization activists began to suspect each other of cooperating with the security services or the anti-Kremlin opposition. In the end, infighting and intimidation led to the movement’s collapse, leaving the partners and relatives of draftees angry and disappointed that their voices were never heard. OVD-Info journalist Marina-Maya Govzman traces the rise and fall of Russia’s demobilization movement.”
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/07/25/the-authorities-don-t-hear-us
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“Moscow Beefing Up Russian Base in Armenia and Expects to Win Armenia Back into Its Fold.” - Paul Goble
“Tsunami lõhkus Vene tuumaallveelaevade baasi.” - Postimees
“Russia Tests Teen Brains To Find Leaders And ‘Anti-Leaders’.” - RFERL
“Vene sõdurite seas vohab HIV.” - Postimees
“HIV rates among Russian soldiers are soaring.” - The Times
“Arvamus: Putinil on võimalus sõda enda kasuks pöörata ja sundida Euroopat alistuma.” - Postimees
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