Estonian PM Vows To Keep Up Checks On Russia’s ‘Shadow Fleet’
(Reuters | gCaptain)
“… days after Russia deployed a SU-35 fighter jet as Estonia attempted to alter the course of one such ship. Last week’s incident “doesn’t change a thing”, with Estonia determined to continue checking suspicious tankers, Prime Minister Kristen Michal said. “I would say that everybody – Estonians, Finns – will be monitoring these kind of ships, and if there’s something suspicious we will ask about it. Everybody will do that.”
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“Russia receives an estimated 60% of its oil revenues via shipments by the "shadow fleet" to buyers in countries such as China and India, according to Estonian estimates.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/estonian-pm-vows-keep-up-checks-russias-shadow-fleet-2025-05-18/
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https://gcaptain.com/estonian-pm-vows-to-keep-up-checks-on-russias-shadow-fleet/
“Martin Herem: varilaevastiku tankerite kinnipidamine ei jää Eesti võimekuse taha.” - ERR
“Poland Intervenes as Russian 'Shadow Fleet' Ship Spotted Near Power Cable.” - The Moscow Times
“Kuidas oleks kõige õigem korraldada Venemaa varilaevastiku aluste kontrollimist?” - Postimees Arvamus
“Russian fighter jet protects ‘shadow fleet’ vessel in first such move by Moscow.” - CNN
“Kaablifirma alustas Estlink 2 parandustöid Soome lahes.” - ERR
“Mapping undersea infrastructure attacks in the Baltic Sea.” - Wilson Center, March 2025
Estonia to reroute maritime traffic after Russian detention of oil tanker
(Lloyd’s List | other sources)
"Estonia has announced it will no longer permit vessels to transit through Russian territorial waters following the detention of the oil tanker Green Admire by Russian authorities over the weekend. The decision comes amid rising tensions in the Baltic Sea and increased scrutiny of Russia’s shadow fleet.”
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“The Green Admire, a Liberian-flagged tanker owned by Greece’s Aegean Shipping, departed the Port of Sillamäe on the evening of 17. May carrying a cargo of shale oil bound for Rotterdam. The vessel was sailing along a previously agreed route that crosses Russian waters in the Gulf of Finland – a corridor established between Estonia, Finland and Russia to enable safe passage for large vessels around Estonia’s shallow coastal zones.”
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“Following the incident and to prevent similar incidents in the future, Estonia will redirect traffic to and from Sillamäe exclusively through Estonian territorial waters.”
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https://eutoday.net/estonia-to-reroute-maritime-traffic/
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https://safety4sea.com/estonia-redirects-maritime-traffic-following-tanker-detention-by-russia/
“Russian authorities release Green Admire tanker seized after leaving Sillamäe.” - ERR
“Russia Releases Greek-Owned Tanker After Brief Detention.” - Moscow Times
France Deploys Reconnaissance Ship to Monitor Russian Activity in Baltic Sea
By Taras Safronov
(Militarnyi | Baltic Sentinel)
“The French Navy has deployed the signals intelligence vessel Dupuy de Lôme to the Baltic Sea to intercept radio transmissions linked to Russian military activity, German newspaper Kieler Nachrichten reported. The ship began its mission last Friday, conducting surveillance in an area where NATO is seeking increased intelligence on Russian operations. The newspaper described the mission as classified; no official confirmation has been released.”
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“Germany has also stationed its reconnaissance ship Oker in the Baltic, operating near Kaliningrad and in the Gulf of Finland in recent weeks.”
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Opinion: There is a clear reason behind the hybrid attacks in the Baltic Sea
By Mart Kuldkepp
(Postimees)
“Russia's hybrid attacks against its neighboring states via subsea infrastructure and shadow fleet tankers … are nothing particularly new.”
“Läänemere hübriidrünnakute taga on kindel põhjus.” - Postimees arvamus
“Kui Vene laevad jõuavad Eesti vetesse, on juba liiga hilja.” - Postimees arvamus
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and Vana Tallinn
(EstoNews)
If you find the geopolitical news from Estonia and the Baltic Sea region helpful and informative, consider buying me a cup of coffee or a shot of Vana Tallinn every once in a while to keep me going - visit the PayPal link below. Tänan!
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Cover Map:
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/mapping-undersea-infrastructure-attacks-baltic-sea
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Lennart Meri unistas Eestist nii võimsalt, et ka teised hakkasid uskuma
(ERR)
“Me teame Lennart Meri presidendina, reisikirjanikuna, dokumentalistina, aga tema põhivaldkond oli fantasmagooria. Ta unistas Eest riigist nii võimsalt, et ka teised hakkasid uskuma. On tõepoolest olemas selline koht nagu Eesti Vabariik. Teda ei takistanud tegelikkus ega olud, neid sai alati sobivaks kujundada – kui olukord on sitt, siis see on tuleviku väetis. Aga kõigepealt oli vaja teada saada, kust me tuleme, kes me oleme ja kes on meie hõimlased. ..."
Arvamus: Puidutöösturid tõmbasid valitsusele kaela üüratu jama
Ülle Harju
(Postimees)
“Kui 70-protsendi-seadus jõustuks, tekiks selle tõttu riigile kohe kohustus hakata kümnetes tuhandetes hektarites metsa kaitse alt välja arvama. Pole kuulda olnud, et ükski teine riik oleks taolist jõhkrat kohustust enda kaela võtnud.”
Töötute noorte hulk on viimastel aastatel kiirelt kasvanud
(ERR)
“Eestis oli eelmise aasta seisuga üle 10,000 16-26-aastase töötu ning see arv on viimastel aastatel järjest kerkinud. Veel kaheksa aastat tagasi jäi töötute noorte arv alla nelja tuhande. … Kõige suurem noorte osakaal – 22,1 % – on Lõuna-Eestis, kõige väiksem ehk 19,2 protsenti aga Kirde-Eestis.”
https://www.err.ee/1609700637/tootute-noorte-hulk-on-viimastel-aastatel-kiirelt-kasvanud
“Youth unemployment in Estonia doubled in less than a decade.” - ERR
Estonia plans to build their first 600-MW nuclear power plant
(Power | NucNet)
“The May 22 announcement confirms the government’s January proposal to build a nuclear power facility. Fermi Energia, an Estonia energy company focused on developing and deploying small modular reactors (SMRs), on Thursday confirmed that a 600-MW nuclear power plant, which would feature two GE Hitachi BWRX-300 SMRs, will be built as part of the country’s commitment to energy security and climate goals.”
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“The planning process is structured into three phases. Between now and 2027, a site pre-selection phase will focus on two areas in northern Estonia. This phase “will evaluate each location’s strategic access to existing infrastructure, along with an environmental impact assessment, to identify the most viable and sustainable options for development,” according to Fermi Energia.”
https://www.powermag.com/estonia-plans-600-mw-nuclear-power-plant-utilizing-bwrx-300-smrs/
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Tallinna lisaeelarvest läheb suurim summa varjumiskohtadele
(ERR)
“Tallinna linnavalitsus kiitis heaks tänavuse lisaeelarve, mille suurus on veidi üle kaheksa miljoni euro. Suurim eraldis, 1,5 miljonit eurot, tehakse varjumiskohtade rajamiseks kortermajadesse.”
https://www.err.ee/1609700595/tallinna-lisaeelarvest-laheb-suurim-summa-varjumiskohtadele
“2000 drooni päevas: ambitsioonika tehase arendaja räägib, kuidas see on Eestis võimalik.” - Postimees
“Ega ma lase endale siin pähe istuda.” Naisajateenija ohjab õppusel poisse.” - Postimees
“Estonia’s Request to Purchase Javelin Missiles for $296M Gets OK From U.S.” - Govconwire
“Tallinna uued trollid jõuavad liinile kõige järgmise aasta suvel.” - ERR
“New Film Studios in Estonia Set to Boost Filming in the Baltics.” - IMDB
Around the Baltic Sea
Lithuania: German Troops Begin First Permanent Foreign Deployment Since World War 2
(The Guardian | Deutsche Welle | BNN)
“As a crowd waved Lithuanian, German and Ukrainian flags, Friedrich Merz and his defence minister, Boris Pistorius, attended a ceremony launching the official formation of an armoured brigade aimed at protecting Nato’s eastern flank. The new heavy combat unit, the 45th tank brigade, will comprise 4,800 German soldiers and 200 civilian staff. It is in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and is scheduled to reach full operational capacity by 2027.”
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“The deployment, unprecedented for the Bundeswehr, is aimed at shoring up the defence of Lithuania and its fellow Baltic republics Estonia and Latvia, former Soviet states that have become Nato and EU members and fear a Russian attack.”
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“While the German army previously consisted of eight brigades, a ninth is now being added, the one in Lithuania. It is to remain there permanently — a first in the history of the Bundeswehr. As a symbol of solidarity, the emblem of the Panzerbrigade 45, which the soldiers wear on their uniforms, also includes a Vilnius landmark, the Gediminas Tower.”
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"Protecting Vilnius is protecting Berlin," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said, telling a crowd of cheering onlookers waving paper flags for the two nations that Lithuanians could count on Germany.”
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https://www.dw.com/en/merz-hails-new-era-for-german-military-at-brigade-launch/live-72629145
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“The German Bundeswehr has formed and permanently stationed a complete brigade in Lithuania.” - Vijesti
Finland completes first stretch of Russian border fence
(Helsinki Times)
“… part of a larger project to increase border security and prevent irregular migration, the Finnish Border Guard confirmed on Wednesday. The structure, located near the closed border crossing at Nuijamaa, is the first section of a 200 km barrier that will be built along parts of the 1,344 km Finnish-Russian border. The fence, standing 4.5 metres tall, features metal railings, a roll of barbed wire, and is fitted with surveillance equipment including cameras, sensors, and loudspeakers. … “The main purpose of the fence is to control a large mass of people if they are trying to enter from Russia to Finland,” said Antti Virta, deputy commander of the Southeast Finland Border Guard District.”
“Finland ‘preparing for the worst’ as Russia expands military presence near border.” - The Guardian
“Russia could regain the capacity to challenge Nato within three to five years, according to the Finnish Defence Forces.” - Helsinki Times
NATO’s Greatest Test: Baltic Security in the U.S. President’s Shadow
By Andres Kasekamp
(Georgetown Journal of International Affairs)
“The Trump administration’s abandonment of allies and embrace of Putin’s Russia has raised pressing questions about whether Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania can continue to rely on NATO for security. To prevent the Baltic states from becoming the next target of Russian aggression, the West must continue supporting Ukraine on the battlefield, and Europe must urgently enhance its defense spending. The Baltic states have set an example, maintaining robust defense commitments and strengthening their regional alliances.”
https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2025/05/21/trump-and-nato/
Prantsuse luure tehnikast pungil sõjalaev tuleb Läänemerele Vene varilaevastikku passima
(Postimees)
“Läänemerele saabunud Prantsusmaa mereväe luurelaev Dupuy de Lôme alustas oma esimest missiooni, mis on suunatud Venemaa mereväe ja eriti selle varilaevastiku jälgimisele. … Iga raadiolaine, radarisignaal ja muu elektromagnetiline kiirgus jätab endast maha justkui digitaalse sõrmejälje. Dupuy de Lôme on ehitatud just nende vaevumärgatavate sõrmejälgede kogumiseks ja analüüsiks.”
The Baltic Sentinel
NATO corruption probe 'reminder' of defense boom risks
(Deutsche Welle)
“Revelations of an unfolding corruption investigation involving staff and ex-staff at the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) have continued to emerge, with a total of five detentions — two in Belgium and three in the Netherlands — made public so far. The Belgian public prosecutor reported the first detentions late Wednesday, saying they concerned "possible irregularities" in contracts awarded to buy ammunition and drones via NATO.”
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“The Belgian authorities said in a statement that NSPA employees or former employees in Luxembourg may have passed information to defense contractors. "There are indications that money obtained from these illegal practices would have been laundered, partly by setting up consultancy companies."
https://www.dw.com/en/nato-corruption-drones-defense-arms-procurement-ukraine-eu/a-72562793
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“EU releases funding to keep Radio Free Europe afloat.” - DW
“Air forces from Denmark, Finland and Sweden conducted a coordinated operation over the Baltic Sea.” - NATO
"Western countries reveal major Russian cyber-espionage campaign.” - Politico Europe
“Merz teeb NATO idatiiva tugevdamise raames visiidi Leetu.” - ERR
“Lithuanian president: Russia escalating tensions in Baltic Sea, targeting Estonia.” - NV
“World's largest cruise ship ‘Star of the Seas’ sets off from Turku.” - Yle
“Former NATO Chief Rasmussen Says Europe Needs New Security Model.” - RFERL video
“From Tallinn To The Hague: The Run-Up To The NATO Summit.” - RFERL
“America’s Brain Drain Will Be Europe’s Gain.” - Foreign Policy
“Finnish firms uphold diversity efforts amid the U.S. president’s anti-DEI push.” - Helsinki Times
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Germany eyes strongest EU army by 2031
(Deutsche Welle)
“If Germany goes ahead and increases its defense expenditure to 5% of GDP, it will be making a historic turnaround in security policy. Since the end of the Cold War, it has primarily relied on international cooperation, diplomacy and a culture of strategic military restraint. But former Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Zeitenwende speech on February 27, 2022, three days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marked a turning point.”
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-armed-forces-bundeswehr-eu-defense-spending-nato-trump/a-72570394
UK Prime Minister: “We will do everything in our power to destroy Putin's shadow fleet”
(The Independent Barents Observer)
“The threat from Russia to our national security cannot be underestimated, that is why we will do everything in our power to destroy his shadow fleet operation, starve his war machine of oil revenues and protect the subsea infrastructure that we rely on for our everyday lives," UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said as he presented the new sanctions package. There is no place to hide for those who help fund Putin’s war machine, the PM underlined.”
Putin’s Forever War
Russian forces break through Ukrainian defenses in major Donbas offensive
(Meduza)
“Russian forces have made their first significant gains in a summer offensive launched in Donbas several weeks ago. They broke through Ukrainian defenses near the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka highway and captured several villages north of the road. The objective of the offensive — and likely of Russia’s broader summer campaign — is the Kramatorsk–Sloviansk agglomeration.”
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“While Ukrainian defenses in this sector are clearly under strain, Russia has yet to fully exploit the breakthrough, and its advance remains slow. Ukraine’s military command still has time to send reinforcements to the area — but the only available reserves are in the Sumy region, where Russian troops are also advancing.”
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/05/23/on-the-move-again
Nobody in Ukraine Thinks the War Will End Soon
By Anne Applebaum
(The Atlantic)
“Ukrainian reasoning is straightforward: Vladimir Putin has never said he wants to end the war. The propagandists on Russian state television have never said they want to end the war. The Russian negotiating team in Istanbul did not say it wanted to end the war. On the contrary, the head of the Russian delegation Vladimir Medinsky told the Ukrainians “We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?” (The Great Northern War, to which Medinsky was presumably referring, concluded in 1721. Also, Medinsky is best-known not for any battlefield heroics but for rewriting school textbooks).”
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[The author comments]: “I will not offer a full explanation for why Trump does not understand the game that Putin is playing, one that is obvious to absolutely everyone else. I will note only that Trump repeatedly misunderstands Putin, overrates his alleged friendship with Putin, and often attributes to Putin motives that are really his own. “Putin is tired of this whole thing,” Trump said on Fox News. “He’s not looking good. And he wants to look good.” In reality, it is Trump who is tired of “this whole thing,” Trump who’s not looking good, and Trump who wants to look good.“
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/05/ukraine-war-russia-trump-putin/682843/
“Peace, postponed.” - Meduza
“U.S. President Acknowledges Putin Not Ready to End Ukraine War.” - The Moscow Times
“Opinion: There is no Ukraine ceasefire. Ever.” - Politico Europe
“Putin 'Not Interested At All' In Ukraine Cease-Fire.” - RFERL
“Provincial, Naive and Willfully Ignorant: Russians Lured to War With Fake Job Ads.” - The Moscow Times
“Teet Kalmus: Ukraina jaoks on oluline lõhkuda turvalise Moskva kuvandit.” - Estonian World Review
Putin’s Still In Charge
By Tom Nichols
(The Atlantic)
“Today’s phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Donald Trump was a painful reminder that Trump is the junior partner in the Russian-American relationship and that Putin will continue his mass-murder campaign in Ukraine for as long as he can get away with it. Nothing else of substance emerged from the call. When it comes to Europe’s largest armed conflict since World War II, Putin’s still in charge.”
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“Putin, exuding confidence, got out ahead of Trump just minutes after the call and talked in person to the media, which allowed him the first move in framing the discussion. (Today’s Russian autocrats understand public relations far better than their dour Soviet predecessors.) Putin’s quick personal readout of the call was a perfect nothingburger …”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/05/putin-trump-russia-ukraine/682848/
“The Russia That Putin Made.” - Foreign Affairs, April 2025
The U.S. president’s latest position on the war in Ukraine: ‘Not My Problem’
(New York Times, 20. May)
“The U.S. president told President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and other European leaders after his call with Mr. Putin that Russia and Ukraine would have to find a solution to the war themselves, just days after saying that only he and Mr. Putin had the power to broker a deal. And he backed away from his own threats to join a European pressure campaign that would include new sanctions on Russia, according to six officials who were familiar with the discussion. They spoke on condition of anonymity to describe a private conversation.”
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“Their account sheds light on Mr. Trump’s decision to throw up his hands when it comes to a peace process that he had previously promised to resolve in just 24 hours. And, unless he again reverses course, Monday’s developments left Mr. Putin with exactly what he wanted: not only an end to American pressure, but the creation of a deep fissure inside the North Atlantic Treaty Organization …”
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