Estonia Receives Anti-Ship Missile That Can Cover The Entire Baltic
(The Defense Post | ERR)
“A joint venture of Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and ST Engineering Land Systems has delivered the Blue Spear 5G SSM anti-ship missile system to Estonia. The sea-skimming missile system was procured in 2021 as part of Estonia’s comprehensive coastal defense complex solution.”
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“The presence of Blue Spears in the Navy significantly increases the firing range of the Estonian Defence Forces and strengthens deterrence against a potential aggressor,” Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur said.”
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[Each missile reportedly costs US $5 million.]
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/02/12/estonia-anti-ship-missile/
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https://news.err.ee/1609249344/long-range-anti-ship-missile-system-arrives-in-estonia
Estonia’s New Anti-Ship Missiles: Crucial Naval Capability And Overdue Strategic Shift To Sea
(Baltic Security Foundation, 2021)
“For all three Baltic states, and NATO as a whole, this new development is a critical step forward. By developing the means to deny access to surface vessels in the Gulf of Finland and northern Baltic Sea, Estonia can prevent Russia from utilizing Saint Petersburg’s port and naval facilities for aggressive action, leaving only Kaliningrad in play. By doing that, Estonia will cut off one key option for supplying the exclave. Furthermore, it can prevent amphibious landings on its own territory, and prevent a full blockade of all three Baltic States. This will make it all the more difficult for Russia to fully cut off the Baltics …”
https://balticsecurity.eu/estonia_new_anti-ship_missile/
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Friday 16. February
NATO riigid on hakanud lõpuks oma kaitsekulutusi tõstma
(ERR)
“Valdava osa NATO riikide kaitsekulutused suhtena sisemajanduse kogutoodangusse (SKT) on püsinud aastaid allpool kahte protsenti SKT-st, kuid alanud aastal peaks sihiks seatud alampiiri ületama siiski rohkem kui pooled liitlased. NATO peasekretär Jens Stoltenberg teatas kolmapäeval, et 2024. aastal peaks 31-st liikmesriigist 18 panustama oma kaitsesse vähemalt 2 % SKT-st.”
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"See on rekord ja kuuekordne tõus võrreldes 2014. aastaga, kui ainult kolm liitlast täitsid eesmärgi," ütles Stoltenberg kolmapäeval antud pressikonverentsil. Kümme aastat tagasi olid sellest lävendist kõrgemad kaitsekulud USA-l, Kreekal ja Ühendkuningriigil.”
https://www.err.ee/1609253742/nato-riigid-on-hakanud-lopuks-oma-kaitsekulutusi-tostma
Varased eesti rahvuslased unistasid põhjamaisest föderatsioonist
(Novaator)
“Kui Eesti iseseisvumist ollakse harjunud nägema eesti rahvusliku liikumise ainuvõimaliku väljendusena, oli tegelik pilt 20. sajandi alguse Läänemere regioonis märksa kirjum. Sellest, kuidas eestlaste seas levis mõte taastada Eesti üle Rootsi võim ja moodustada põhjamaine föderatsioon, rääkis Novaatorile oma värske raamatu valguses Londoni Ülikooli Kolledži Eesti ja Põhjamaade ajaloo professor Mart Kuldkepp.”
https://novaator.err.ee/1609253769/varased-eesti-rahvuslased-unistasid-pohjamaisest-foderatsioonist
Tallinna Vene saatkonna ette mindi Navalnõi surma pärast meelt avaldama
(Postimees | ERR)
[Protests were held in front of the Russian embassy in Tallinn in connection with the death of Russian oppositionist Aleksei Navalny.]
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Kaja Kallas on Russia's wanted list
(France 24 | ISW | Time)
“Kallas’ name appeared on the Interior Ministry’s register of people wanted in connection with criminal charges. It didn’t specify what charges Kallas was facing. It is the first time the ministry has put a foreign leader on a wanted list.”
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“The Kremlin appears to be asserting the right to enforce Russian Federation law on officials of governments in NATO member states over actions taken in the performance of their official duties within the territories of their own countries.”
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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-13-2024
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https://time.com/6694348/russia-estonia-kaja-kallas/
“Russia Puts Estonian PM And Dozens Of Baltic Officials On Wanted List For Removing Monuments.” - RFERL
“Russia puts four Poles on wanted list says Russian independent portal.” - Polish Press Agency
“Baltics Take Diplomatic Steps To Protest Politicians Being Placed On Russian 'Wanted List’.” - RFERL
“Estonia's PM says she won't be silenced after Russia puts her on wanted list.” - The Jerusalem Post
Euroopa tipp-poliitikud seisavad Kremli poolt tagaotsitava peaministri seljataga
(Delfi)
[Europe's top politicians stand behind the prime minister wanted by the Kremlin.]
“See on tavapärane hirmutamistaktika.” - ERR
Message to NATO: Be More Baltic
By Krista Viksnins, CEPA
“As some Western nations waver in their commitment to Ukraine, the Baltic states have remained steadfast and generous allies. It’s an example to emulate.”
Sweden Closes Case of MV Estonia
(AP | Maritime Executive)
“Prosecutors in Sweden have decided not to reopen a new investigation into the fate of the ferry Estonia, which went down in the Baltic with massive loss of life in 1994. … a joint Estonian, Finnish and Swedish report released in 2023 pushed back on these controversial claims and endorsed the original conclusion: the bow visor failed due to mechanical fatigue. The Swedish prosecutors have now accepted this conclusion as well, and have declined to reopen the case, citing lack of evidence for an alternative explanation.”
https://apnews.com/article/sweden-estonia-ferry-sinking-c6024cc3f6d90e0833812e1aa3ff9b54
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https://maritime-executive.com/article/sweden-closes-case-of-mv-estonia-sinking
Balticconnector gas pipeline repairs to begin in March
(Yle)
“The Balticconector pipeline between Estonia and Finland has been out of commission since sustaining damage in early October last year. Finnish state-owned company Gasgrid on Friday announced plans to have the pipeline back in action by late April.”
How Small Member States like the Baltics Shape EU Narratives
(Carnegie Europe)
“Central European and Baltic states have been the driving force of the EU’s response to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Their influence has important implications for the union’s future direction.”
https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/91568
Latvian volunteer soldier in Ukraine: 'The front lacks everything’
(Latvian Broadcasting)
“We've been saying goodbye to someone almost every week over the last year. In addition, there is a lack of equipment and ammunition on the front.”
“Ukraine Struggles to Find Troops for the Frontline.” - CEPA
“Ukrainian army unit launches own recruitment drive to strengthen ranks.” - Reuters
Europe’s Geostrategic Awakening
(Internationale Politik)
“Decades of US protection created a false sense of normative superiority in the EU. It also made Europe lose much of its strategic instincts while facing deep-seated systemic deficiencies. Overcoming those will be the key task for 2024. …”
https://ip-quarterly.com/en/europes-geostrategic-awakening
Suri Vene opositsioonitegelane Aleksei Navalnõi
(Postimees)
“Teates märgitakse, et 47-aastane Navalnõi haigestus täna karistusosakonnas nr 3 pärast jalutuskäiku. Navalnõi kaotas peaaegu kohe teadvuse, teatas osakond. Tema juurde saadeti meditsiinitöötajad ja kutsuti ka kiirabibrigaad. Arstid viisid läbi kõik vajalikud elustamismeetmed, mis ei andnud positiivseid tulemusi, seisis teates.”
https://maailm.postimees.ee/7961603/galerii-suri-vene-opositsioonitegelane-aleksei-navalnoi
“Navalnaja ootab rahvusvaheliselt kogukonnalt Putini vastutusele võtmist.” - ERR
“The life and death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.” - AP
“Navalny's death: Reactions from around the world.” - Reuters
“Russians Who Have Died After Running Afoul Of The Kremlin.” - RFERL
“Opinion: Make No Mistake - Vladimir Putin Killed Alexei Navalny.” - National Interest
Alutaguse vald soovib taastada Peipsi ja Narva vahelise laevaliikluse
(ERR)
“Alutaguse vald uurib laevaliikluse taastamise võimalust Narva jõel. Tartust Narvani kulgenud laevatee kadus siis, kui Narva jõgi piirijõeks muutus. Enam kui 70 kilomeetri pikkusest Narva jõest on praegu laevatatav vaid 12 kilomeetrit Narvast Narva-Jõesuuni. Suurem osa jõest Peipsist Narvani on aga laevaliiklusele suletud. Tropiks on Permisküla saar.”
https://www.err.ee/1609255197/alutaguse-vald-soovib-taastada-peipsi-ja-narva-vahelise-laevaliikluse
Thursday 15. February
Venemaa sõjajõudude suurendamine Eesti piiri taga on kõigest plaan
(ERR)
“Julgeolekuekspert Rainer Saksa sõnul on Venemaa sõjajõudude suurendamine Eesti piiri taga kõigest plaan, mis on seotud Soome ja Rootsi NATOga liitumisega.”
—
"Välisluureameti raportist lugedes – need on esialgu plaanid. Venemaa peab reageerima nii NATO laienemisele. Soome ja Rootsi on liitunud NATO-ga. See on väga oluliselt tugevdanud NATO kohalolekut Läänemere piirkonnas,” lisas Saks.”
Välisluureameti avalik raport 2024
(Eesti Välisluureamet)
“Ehkki Venemaa välksõjaplaanid kukkusid läbi, usub Vladimir Putin endiselt, et sõjapidamist jätkates õnnestub tal vastaspooled läbirääkimiste laua taha sundida. Just vastaspooled, sest Kremli mõtteviisi kohaselt ei võitle nad mitte ainuüksi ukrainlastega, vaid nende valitud tee on pikaajaline vastasseis kogu kollektiivse Läänega.”
—
“Seda illustreerib Venemaa sõjaväe reform, mida esitletakse vastusena NATO laienemisele. Reformi edukuse määrab paljuski käimasoleva sõja kulg, kuid võib kindel olla, et NATO seisab järgmisel kümnendil silmitsi Nõukogude Liidu stiilis massiarmeega, mis jääb kõrgtehnoloogiliselt liitlastele alla, ent mille suurus, tulejõud ja reservid kujutavad endast arvestatavat ohtu. Kahurilihaks taandunud inimmass ei ole küll suutnud Ukrainas läbi viia suuremahulisi pealetungioperatsioone, kuid kütust Kremli sõjamasinale veel jagub.”
https://raport.valisluureamet.ee/2024/et/
Russia gearing up for decade-long duel with West, Estonia warns
(Politico Europe | Reuters)
“… and could be deterred by a counter build-up of armed forces, Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service said on Tuesday.”
—
“Estonian intelligence also flagged a major change in Russia’s army: the formation of the Leningrad and Moscow military districts, aimed at NATO-member Finland. They also noted that Russia plans to expand its military from 1.15 million to 1.5 million members by 2026 in preparation for a potential conflict with NATO. This expansion in manpower, it says, underscores the need for NATO and allied forces to significantly expand their defense capabilities.”
—
“A military attack by Russia is "highly unlikely" in the short term partly because Russia has to keep troops in Ukraine …”
—
“Russian arms production worries Europe’s war planners.” - The Guardian
“Interview: Commander of the 1st Infantry Brigade Col. Andrus Merilo.” - ERR
“Russia will be able to sustain its war effort in Ukraine for "two to three more years …” - Politico
“Kaitseuuringust selgus, et Venemaa võib sõjategevust jätkata kaks või kolm aastat.” - Delfi
“Europe needs a decade to build up arms stocks, says defence firm.” - BBC
“Time to Panic on Europe’s Rusting Defenses? Probably.” - CEPA
“Eksperdid: Venemaa suudab sõjakaotused asendada.” - ERR
NATO can't be 'A La Carte'
(RFERL)
“EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and other European defense and foreign ministers on February 12 joined a torrent of criticism over former U.S. President Donald Trump's comment downplaying the U.S. commitment to NATO's security umbrella in Europe.”
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"Let's be serious. NATO cannot be an a la carte military alliance, it cannot be a military alliance that works depending on the humor of the president of the U.S. day to day. … Borrell added that he would not keep commenting on "any silly idea" emerging from the U.S. presidential election campaign.”
https://www.rferl.org/a/nato-blast-trump-comments/32816731.html
“Over half of NATO countries to meet defence spending target.” - BNN
“Nato chief rebukes Donald Trump and announces record defence spending.” - The Guardian
“NATO would be better off rebuilding military forces with or without US support.” - Sky News
“Estonia's PM: Trump's NATO comments should be wake-up call for allies to invest in defense.” - Reuters
“Trump Encourages Putin to Attack NATO Members.” - The Atlantic
“Trump on Nato: Dangerous talk at a dangerous time.” - BBC
“Trump just did Europe a favor.” - Politico Europe
“Trump-proofing NATO.” - Politico
Annual Report: International Security and Estonia 2024
(Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service)
“While the likelihood of a direct military attack against Estonia remains low in the coming year, the security situation in Europe and along Estonia’s borders in the near future depends on whether Ukraine, with the support of its allies, can shatter Russia’s imperialist ambitions.”
—
“… Putin still believes that by continuing the conflict, he can force the opposing parties to come to the negotiating table.”
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“This is exemplified by Russia’s military reform, which is presented as a response to NATO’s expansion. The success of this reform largely depends on the course of the ongoing war, but we can expect that within the next decade, NATO will face a Soviet-style mass army that, while technologically inferior to the allies, poses a significant threat due to its size, firepower and reserves. Although Russia’s massive human resources – reduced to cannon fodder – have not been able to conduct large-scale offensive operations in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s war machine still has enough fuel.”
https://www.valisluureamet.ee/doc/raport/2024-en.pdf
Tuleb otsustada, kas Narva ja Värska suunas on gaasitoru vaja
(ERR)
“Võrguettevõttel Elering ja riigil omanikuna tuleb lähiaastatel otsustada, kas Narva ja Värska suunas viivatesse gaasi torujuhtmetesse tasub investeerida enam kui paarsada miljonit eurot ja kui ei tasu, siis mida teha edasi sealsete gaasitarbijatega, rääkis Eleringi juhatuse esimees Kalle Kilk. Veel mõned aastad tagasi Eestisse Venemaalt gaasi toonud torustikest on tänaseks saanud tupikteed. Eleringi juhatuse esimehe Kalle Kilgi sõnul on neil torudel veel 10 kuni 15 aastat kasulikku eluiga.”
https://www.err.ee/1609253985/elering-tuleb-otsustada-kas-narva-ja-varska-suunas-on-gaasitoru-vaja
Water Shortages in Russian-Occupied Crimea Set to Trigger Mass Outmigration
By Paul Goble, Jamestown Org.
“Russian-occupied Crimea is now facing water shortages so severe that as many as 500,000 of the peninsula’s 2.5 million residents may soon be forced to try to flee despite Moscow’s claims to the contrary. Such outmigration undermines Russian control. It also creates difficulties for Kyiv, which must balance its interest in recovering its territory with the problems a mass outmigration creates for Ukraine.”
Wednesday 14. February
Public urged to be cautious traveling outside EU, NATO member states
(LSM)
“The Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) is warning that not only people mentioned on Russia's reported 'wanted list' but by anyone from Latvia considering going outside EU and NATO member states to third countries should consider their situation carefully.”
Estonia's foreign minister says the Baltics have 3 or 4 years to prepare for Russian 'test' of NATO
(ABCNews)
“Margus Tsahkna told a news conference during a visit to Poland's capital that Estonia does not view Russia as an immediate threat to it and the other Baltic states, Lithuania and Latvia, because Moscow is busy with its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”
—
“But we must understand the Russian war machine has started in the full scale, the capabilities for production and the mentality as well, because Putin is controlling now everything,” he said alongside his host, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski.”
The Baltic Defense Line
By Lukas Milevski, FPRI
“The Baltic states believe that they cannot give up ground, which means recognizing that they need to be prepared to contest a Russian invasion from the first moments following the violation of Baltic borders. An obvious point: In the face of Russian genocidal atrocities in Ukraine, Baltic governments cannot be seen to be abandoning their populations to the Russians, nor do they want to do so. In Ukraine, the Russians have committed multiple known mass murders (such as at Bucha and Izyum), they have kidnapped children and fast-tracked their adoption and citizenship in Russia, and they are already settling new colonizers on occupied land, especially in the cities. Any one of these is fundamentally unacceptable.”
https://www.fpri.org/article/2024/02/the-baltic-defense-line/
Baltics and Ukraine Move to Reduce Russian Orthodoxy to Smaller National Church
By Paul Goble, Jamestown Org.
“The Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate is gradually losing its position at home–and more rapidly in some post-Soviet states–due to its slavish support of Putin’s war in Ukraine. While Kyiv is about to ban its branch, Tallinn is demolishing a compromise in which two Orthodox churches coexisted, and Vilnius is welcoming a branch of the anti-Moscow Ecumenical Patriarch. These developments further question the meaning and utility of Putin’s “Russian world” and its “traditional values.”
—
“They may presage Moscow lashing out to try to limit the damage.”
Conservative ex-PM Alexander Stubb elected Finland president
(BBC)
“Mr. Stubb, 55, takes a hardline approach towards Russia, with which the Nordic nation shares a long land border. He had said that joining Nato was a "done deal" for his country as soon as Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68270804
Russia’s Forever War
‘Genocide of the Soviet people’ - a new historical propaganda weapon for Russia
(Novaya Gazeta)
“Late last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin unveiled a vast new monument outside St. Petersburg to the Soviet victims of the Nazi genocide during the Great Patriotic War — Russia’s name for World War II. The memorial marks a decisive pivot in the Russian state’s attitude towards its own historical memory, and not only stresses Russians’ role as great heroes, but also as unavenged victims.”
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2024/02/13/unpredictable-past-en
Russian Offensive Campaign
Assessment: 15. Feb. 2024
(ISW)
“Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to elaborate on an amorphous ideology for Russia to support geopolitical confrontation with the West by attempting to portray Russia as the leader of an international anti-Nazi movement.”
—
“Putin intentionally misrepresented a statement from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in an attempt to promote pseudo-history aimed at denying Ukrainian statehood.”
—
“The Russian offensive effort to capture Avdiivka underscores the Russian military’s inability to conduct a successful operational envelopment or encirclement in Ukraine.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2024
“Russia closing in on taking Ukrainian town with US help on hold.” - The Hill
“Ukraine Says It Destroyed Large Russian Landing Ship Off Crimea Coast.” - RFERL
“Russia to raise age of contract soldiers to age 65, and age 70 for officers.” - Radio Poland
‘Mischief-making' Putin says he prefers 'more predictable' Biden over Trump
(Reuters | Axios)
“Putin was asked by interviewer Pavel Zarubin who was "better for us" out of Biden, a Democrat, and Trump, a Republican. Putin replied without hesitation: "Biden. He is a more experienced, predictable person, a politician of the old school.” Smiling slightly, he added: "But we will work with any U.S. president who the American people have confidence in."
—
“At a time of high political uncertainty in the U.S., and with relations between the two countries at their lowest point for more than 60 years, his comments were more likely to be perceived as mischief-making than taken at face value.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-says-he-prefers-more-predictable-biden-over-trump-2024-02-14/
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https://www.axios.com/2024/02/15/putin-biden-trump-elections
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