"If we don’t stop Putin’s appetite for power and control in Ukraine, he won’t limit himself just to Ukraine. Putin has already threated to ‘remind’ — quote, ‘remind’ Poland that their western land was a gift from Russia.”
—
“One of his top advisors, a former president of Russia, has called Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania Russia’s ‘Baltic provinces.’ These are all NATO Allies.”
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“For 75 years, NATO has kept peace in Europe and has been the cornerstone of American security. And if Putin attacks a NATO Ally, we will defend every inch of NATO which the treaty requires and calls for. …”
- President Joe Biden’s speech from the Oval Office on Thursday regarding the wars between Israel and Hamas, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
White House Transcript
October 19, 2023
The Baltic states and Finland: fencing themselves off from Russia and Belarus
(Centre for Eastern Studies - OSW)
“Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has spurred the Baltic states and Finland to ramp up their investments in border infrastructure. The construction work is currently at different stages in each of these countries, and there are some differences between them as regards the final shape of the planned border reinforcements. This is partly due to different terrain, but the primary reason is that these countries’ governments have differing perceptions of the threat. Estonia’s and Finland’s actions are preventive, while Lithuania and Latvia have been facing real pressure from Belarus.”
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EstoNews on-line:
https://estonewsoftheweek.blogspot.com/
Dropbox Archive:
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/1kvd04gtar6ty2b/AADCUK2J_RXcMyIYf_sjnAwoa?dl=0
Help save the Estonian Consulates
in New York and San Francisco:
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Friday 20. October
Arvamus: Sõda Ukraina vastu, hübriidsõda Eesti vastu
(Postimees)
“Eesti jaoks, kes on kogenud pidevat Vene agressioonifooni juba alates 1990. aastate algusest ning kes praegu on üks resoluutsemaid Ukraina toetajaid, ei tohiks tegelikult tulla üllatusena viimasel ajal kogetud massilised pommiähvardused koolidele ja lasteaedadele ega rünnakud veealuse infrastruktuuri vastu. Pigem võiks see olla järjekordseks meeldetuletuseks, et Ukraina võitleb mitte ainult oma vabaduse, vaid ka kogu Euroopa julgeoleku eest – ning eriti veel teiste Venemaa naaberriikide eest, kes on ajaloo vältel ise korduvalt samas olukorras olnud.”
https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7879372/soda-ukraina-vastu-hubriidsoda-eesti-vastu
Soome politsei leidis merest eseme, mis võis tekitada gaasitoru kahjustuse
(Delfi | ERR)
“Soome politsei on eeluurimise käigus tuvastanud, et Hongkongi lipu all sõitva Hiina laeva liikumine langeb kokku gaasitoru kahjustamise aja ja kohaga. Merepõhjast on leitud ka ese, mis võis gaasitoru kahjustuse tekitada.”
—
https://www.err.ee/1609140200/soome-leidis-merest-raske-eseme-mis-vois-kahjustada-gaasitoru
Finland: Chinese ship is focus of investigation into damaged pipeline
(The Guardian | Yle)
“Police focusing on the Newnew Polar Bear cargo ship that was in the area when gas pipeline was damaged. … On Friday, they said their focus was on the Newnew Polar Bear, a cargo ship that reportedly came under Chinese ownership this year. Between 2017 and 2022 it was known as the Baltic Fulmar, the Finnish broadcaster YLE reported.”
—
““The movements of the vessel Newnew Polar Bear flying the flag of Hong Kong coincide with the time and place of the gas pipeline damage,” Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation said.”
—
A Russian cargo ship is another suspect in Baltic pipeline breach
(Maritime Executive)
“(The second suspect) is the Russian government-operated LASH carrier Sevmorput, the last nuclear-powered cargo vessel in the world.”
—
“As recently as April, Russia threatened to take "military-technical" measures to penalize Finland for joining NATO. Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a researcher at the Finnish Institute for Foreign Policy, told German outlet Tagesschau last week that "the list of states in the region that have the opportunity, motive and ability to carry out something like this is quite short. There's only Russia."
NATO Should Weigh Halting Russian Baltic Shipping, Latvia Says
(Latvian Broadcasting | Bloomberg)
“If Russia's responsibility is proven in the investigation regarding the damage to Balticconnector, NATO should decide on the closure of the Baltic Sea for ships, the President of Latvia Edgars Rinkēvičs said in an interview. “I've spoken to the Finnish and Estonian presidents, it's approximately clear what direction this is going in,” he added.”
—
Government confirms Nursipalu military training area boundaries, compensation
(ERR)
“The training area is located in Võru County, but the compensation measures will apply much more broadly, to a total of 16 (out of 79) municipalities nationwide, reflecting the fact that Nursipalu is not the only military training area in the land, and that the changed security situation may lead to further developments with all of the training areas.”
https://news.err.ee/1609139993/government-confirms-nursipalu-training-area-boundaries-compensation
“Nursipalu harjutusvälja laiendatakse kiirendatud korras.” - Postimees
Estonia planning new self-propelled artillery acquisition by end of decade
(ERR)
“The planned acquisition is likely to involve a truck-mounted type of system. Self-propelled artillery has a ‘shoot-and-scoot’ capability meaning it is much faster to press into action than are towed artillery pieces, and rapidly can fire, move, and then fire again.”
—
“Tiina Uudeberg, Ministry of Defense undersecretary for defense planning, said: "They are included in our 10-year development plan, but we are likely waiting until 2028 [to take delivery]; perhaps a little longer."
Fare-free transportation has accomplished little in Tallinn
(Fast Company)
“It’s been a relatively useless policy,” Mari Jussi, a sustainable mobility advisor to the Estonian Transport Administration, said. “People are still shifting to cars.”
—
“Tallinn’s transit system is impressive, especially for a city with fewer than half a million inhabitants. Dedicated lanes speed up many bus and tram trips, and service is stunningly frequent by American standards … Even so, a growing number of locals have chosen to drive instead. According to the Estonian government, transit’s share of Tallinn commutes has fallen from over 40% in 2013, the year fares were eliminated for residents, to under 30% last year. During that time, the proportion of commuters who drove rose from just over 40% to almost 50%.”
Thursday 19. October
NATO bolsters its Baltic Sea patrols
(ERR | TVP)
“The increased measures include additional surveillance and reconnaissance flights, including with maritime patrol aircraft, NATO AWACS planes, and drones. A fleet of four NATO minehunters is also being dispatched to the area,” NATO said in a statement.”
https://news.err.ee/1609138940/nato-increases-baltic-sea-patrols-after-subsea-infrastructure-damage
—
https://tvpworld.com/73535652/nato-bolsters-its-baltic-sea-patrol-capabilities
Piirid Kinni: Peterburi poolt vaadates tuleb teha Läänemerest järv
(Ypsilon Postimees)
“Päris kummastav on Venemaale kehtestatud sanktsioonide raames mõelda, et sisuliselt korraldab Venemaa meie majandusvööndis ja territoriaalvetes oma sõjalisi mereväeõppusi; samamoodi veavad selle laevad edasi-tagasi sanktsioonidealust kaupa. Kas Eestil – enda sõnul Ukraina ühel suuremal toetajal – on praegu tegelikult mõistlik Kaliningradi merepidiseid varustusteid lahti hoida?”
—
“Seltsimes «Jebanutin» Putin on iseenesest suur keiser Peeter Esimese fänn (see oli mees, kes Venemaa ajalookäsitluse kohaselt raius akna Euroopasse). Eesti ja Soome saaksid praegu tuua Venemaa ajalookäsitlusse fakti, et Jebanutin pani selle lahtiraiutud lolli akna jälle kinni. Ja edasi saavad Venemaa ajaloolased Vladimir Vladimirovitši suunal alustada diskursuse "Kui loll saab üks inimene olla?”
Sidekaablite ja gaasitoru kahjustuste tõttu tõhustab NATO Läänemerel patrullimist
(Delfi)
“… Kaitseminister Hanno Pevkur: otsus ei tähenda sõjalise ohu suurenemist.”
—
“Tõhustatud meetmed hõlmavad rohkemaid seire- ja luurelende, sealhulgas merepatrull-lennukite, NATO AWACS-lennukite ja droonidega. Samuti saadetakse piirkonda neljast miinijahtijast koosnev laevastik. Eestisse saabub homme kaks liitlaste miinijahtijat. … Kaitseminister Hanno Pevkur ütles, et NATO otsus patrullida Läänemere piirkonnas nii merel kui ka õhus senisest rohkem näitab liitlaste valvsust ja valmisolekut tegutseda.”
—
“Otsus ei tähenda sõjalise ohu suurenemist. Küll kinnitab see tugevaid liitlassuhteid ning seda, et NATO peab kriitilise taristu julgeolekut väga oluliseks,“ ütles Pevkur.”
—
Välisminister Margus Tsahkna ütles, et liitlastega on tõstetud valvsust Läänemerel toimuva suhtes ja astutud samme, et kaitsta kriitilisi ühendusi Läänemeres. „Seejuures tervitan NATO tänast otsust saata Läänemerele täiendavaid patrulle, sealhulgas lennukeid, droone ja laevu,“ sõnas ta.
“NATO suurendab patrulle Läänemere piirkonnas.” - ERR
“Uurijad: Eesti-Soome kaabli rike on inimtekkeline.” - Postimees
“Senised tõendid näitavad, et sidekaabli kahjustused on inimtekkelised.” - ERR
“Arvamus: Merealuse taristu kaitsmine on võimalik.” - Postimees
Sweden reported damage to their Baltic Sea cable link with Estonia
(Euronews | Deutsche Welle | Yle | Meduza)
“Sweden says an undersea telecommunications cable that runs under the Baltic Sea to Estonia has been partially damaged - and authorities believe it happened at the same time as damage to an undersea pipeline linking Finland to Estonia.”
—
“Finland launched an investigation into possible sabotage after reporting the damage to its gas pipeline to Estonia last week. [Putin has denied that Russia damaged an undersea gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia.]
—
“Estonia's economy ministry said the disruption to the Swedish-owned cable was on Estonian territory, about 50 kilometres off the island of Hiiumaa in northern Estonia, the Baltic News Service reported. Service was restored within a few days, the agency said. Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson said that his country's police, military and coast guard were in contact with their Estonian counterparts regarding the matter. He said there also was heightened vigilance in the Baltic Sea.”
https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/18/sweden-reports-new-damage-to-baltic-sea-cable-link-with-estonia
—
https://www.dw.com/en/sweden-reports-damage-to-baltic-sea-cable-with-estonia/a-67126637
—
—
https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/10/18/sweden-says-baltic-sea-telecommunications-cable-damaged
“Latvian PM orders check of critical infrastructure after Balticconnector damage.” - TVP World
Estonia sends third police team to monitor Latvian-Belarusian border
(ERR)
“The 12-member group is the third rotation of ESTPOL8 assisting the Latvian Border Guard with the migration crisis. It will carry out patrols of the border as well as drone and situation monitoring for the next two weeks. PPA head Veiko Kommusaare said Estonia is contributing because Latvia asked for assistance.”
https://news.err.ee/1609137998/estonia-sends-third-police-team-to-monitor-latvian-belarusian-border
Estonian-developed ESTCube-2 satellite missing, feared destroyed
(ERR | Estonian World)
“The ESTCube-2 satellite, developed by Estonian students, failed to make contact with its team on the ground after a launch earlier this week, prompting fears it may have been destroyed before entering orbit. One other satellite from a batch of 10 being ferried into space on the same launch vehicle has also disappeared.”
—
“The ESTCube-2 team suspects that the launch vehicle did not achieve separation from the capsule contained in the nose of the European Vector of Advanced Generation (Vega) rocket, meaning it did not reach earth orbit, after blasting off from Guiana early morning on Monday of last week.”
https://news.err.ee/1609136978/estonian-developed-estcube-2-satellite-missing-feared-destroyed
—
https://estonianworld.com/technology/estonias-estcube-2-satellite-likely-destroyed/
ESTCube'i arendajad loodavad mõne aasta pärast satelliidile uue stardi anda
(Novaator)
“Eesti üliõpilaste arendatud satelliit ESTCube-2 tõenäoliselt hävis kanderaketi pardal ning ei jõudnudki orbiidile. Kuigi täieliku selguse saamiseks läheb veel aega, ei kaota arendajad lootust, et mõne aasta pärast satelliidile uus start anda.”
Teaching Estonian in Latvian schools is being considered in the Latvian-Estonian border area
(Latvian Broadcasting)
“Some parents and children in Valka's side would love to have that opportunity. The main problem is the lack of wages and teachers …”
Wednesday 18. October
Eesti ostab Türgilt ligi 230 soomukit
(Postimees)
“Soomukite eesmärk on kaitsta kaitseväelasi lahinguolukorras, et nende ümberpaiknemine lahinguväljal oleks võimalikult kiire ja turvaline. Uued lahingumasinad soetatakse kaitseväe 2. jalaväebrigaadile, millel varasemalt ei ole olnud soomustatud ratassõidukeid. Lisaks hangitakse soomukeid juurde ka 1. jalaväebrigaadile ning päästeameti demineerimiskeskusele.”
https://www.postimees.ee/7878995/fotod-eesti-ostab-turgilt-ligi-230-soomukit
“Teine jalaväebrigaad loodab 2025. aasta Kevadtormile minna uute soomukitega.” - ERR
“Turkish manufacturers seal $211M armored vehicle deal with Estonia.” - Daily Sabah
Kallas dismayed by Hungary's Orban handshake with "criminal" Putin
(Reuters | Euractiv)
“The images of EU member state Hungary's prime minister shaking hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin were "very, very unpleasant" and defied logic given Budapest's past history with Moscow, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said on Wednesday.”
—
“Hungary cultivates closer ties with Russia than other European Union states, and is seen as the key potential opponent to a decision due in December on whether to open EU accession talks with Ukraine, which would require the unanimous backing of the bloc's 27 members.”
—
“Hungarian formin response to Estonian PM's statement.” - Postimees
“NATO liitlased on mures Putini ja Orbáni sidemete pärast.” - ERR
Russia likely to blame for email threats to Baltic schools
(Latvian Broadcasting)
“Since Lithuania, Poland and Estonia have also received similarly threatening messages, the Latvian State Police (VP) has offered to create a joint cooperation group with these countries to work on a joint, coordinated investigation of the case … "Seeing that Western democratic countries are being attacked, I can say with 99% certainty that it is most likely Russia that is organizing it,” said the head of the National Security Commission of the Saeima, Ainars Latkovskis.”
“Hostile Nations Behind Bomb Threats at Schools in Baltics.” - Bloomberg
“Schools in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania targeted by email threats.” - AP
How climate misinformation is spread in the Baltic states
(Re:Baltica)
“In Latvia, misleading about climate change appears to be done by individual party members, while in Estonia it’s a common tactic for the Estonian Conservative People’s Party (EKRE). According to fact-checkers from delfi.ee, in the first two summer months alone their members posted false information related to climate change more than 30 times.”
—
“While not popular in the two other Baltic countries, the international activist group Creative Society has taken a foothold in Lithuania and is one of the most cited sources for climate denial. The organization, which often hosts video conferences on climate change and religious topics, regularly spreads lies and has repeatedly been caught manipulating videos to give the impression that scientists agree with their positions. … (In Lithuania in particular, ridicule and defamation of activist Greta Thunberg is very popular.)”
Finland faces growing Russian online threat, Finnish security services say
(The Guardian)
“Finland has had increased online espionage attempts from Russia since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine … Supo, the Finnish security and intelligence service, said the country faced various threats from Russia, including cyberattacks and disinformation.nLast week, Supo said Russia was one of the most active perpetrators of intelligence operations targeting Finland, amid increased tensions after the country’s accession to Nato and the war in Ukraine.”
“Finland Reviewing the Need to Give More Powers to Border Guard in Managing Schengen Borders.” - Schengen Visa Info
Saaremaa: a cool island escape
(The Telegraph | The Week)
“A new hotel is putting it on the map.”
—
https://theweek.com/culture-life/travel/saaremaa-a-remote-island-escape-in-estonia
Viru Hotel’s KGB Spy Museum
(The Jerusalem Post)
“Spying in a workers’ paradise remains paradoxically a labor-intensive business. The hotel, which now has about 150 employees, had a staff of approximately 1,000 back when every guest was a suspect. There were about 450 rooms, and roughly 60 of them were “prepared,” meaning bugged.”
—
[When I visited Tallinn in 1976 ‘babushkas’ were sitting on every floor, by the elevators, just watching us coming and going. - Aavo]
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-768531
Sweden edges closer to sending Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine
(Politico Europe)
“If Sweden were to decide to send the jets, experts suggest it could take up to a year before they are flying over Ukraine, as pilots and engineers would need training on its unfamiliar systems. Still, the planes could have a big impact.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-edges-closer-to-sending-gripen-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/
Russian-Occupied Crimea Rapidly Running Out of Water
(Window on Eurasia)
“… with Russian experts saying that current reserves are sufficient only for the next 18 months and Ukrainian ones suggesting that the peninsula will face crippling economic consequences and even water rationing as soon as early next year. The causes of this looming tragedy include the destruction of the Kakhovka dam and the reservoir behind it, the blocking of water coming into the peninsula from the canal system, and declining underground water levels and then of reservoirs in Crimea because of the drought, experts from both countries agree.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/10/russian-occupied-crimea-rapidly-running.html
What Poland’s Surprise Election Winner Means for the World
(Politico Magazine)
“Sunday’s surprising vote in Poland deserves attention — for what it says about domestic small-d democratic politics and for what it means geopolitically for the U.S. and Europe. … Donald Tusk led his center-right Civic Platform and two likely coalition partners to an unexpected victory over the ruling Law and Justice Party. Over eight years, PiS, as the governing party is known, blended social Catholic conservatism, nationalism bleeding into jingoism and state patronage. Its detractors saw in it an existential threat to Poland’s thirtysomething democracy and raised doubts about the election’s fairness. …”
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/17/donald-tusk-triumph-poland-europe-00122122
—
https://www.politico.eu/article/welcome-back-donald-tusk-eu-sigh-relief-poland-election-results/
“Poland's Tusk now faces greatest challenge of his career.” - EU Observer
“Opposition Parties Secure Votes for New Government.” - Spiegel
“Poland’s Transformative Election.” - Foreign Affairs
“What happens next in Poland?” - Politico Europe
“A New Start for Poland.” - Carnegie Europe
“Poland: Wind of change?” - LRT
Russian private military company ‘Redut’ replaces ‘Wagner’ mercenary group
(BNN |Politico Europe)
“Putin avoids ‘unpopular mobilization’ via units like the GRU’s Redut, says British military intel. … Redut has been involved in combat in Ukraine’s Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Luhansk regions since the start of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.”
—
“Redut was established in 2008 by Putin-linked oligarch and former KGB agent Gennady Timchenko to safeguard his gas empire, according to a former senior Russian army officer and Wagner operative in evidence submitted to the U.K. House of Commons foreign affairs committee last month, the Daily Telegraph reported.”
—
“The group, which “highly likely” has more than 7,000 personnel, according to the British intel report, rose to prominence after Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin‘s aborted mutiny in June against Putin.”
https://bnn-news.com/redut-replaces-wagner-helping-russia-avoid-mobilisation-250531
—
- Russia’s Forever War -
Russia’s 2024 Budget Shows It’s Planning for a Long War in Ukraine at 6 % GDP
(The Moscow Times)
“For the first time in modern history, the country is set to spend 6% of gross domestic product (GDP) on the military, and defense spending will exceed social spending. The war against Ukraine and the West is not only the Kremlin’s biggest priority; it is now also the main driver of Russia’s economic growth.”
“Russia’s federal budget will give more money to the military at the cost of everyone else.” - Riddle
Russian Offensive Campaign
Assessment: 18. & 19. Oct.
(ISW)
“Ukrainian forces continued counter-offensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.”
—
“Satellite imagery from October 17 suggests that the Ukrainian ATACMS strike on the Berdyansk airfield likely substantially damaged Russian aircraft and airfield infrastructure …”
—
“Russian sources continued to discuss larger-than-usual Ukrainian ground operations on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on October 19 …”
—
“Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui in Pyongyang, North Korea on October 19, likely part of an ongoing Russian effort to procure additional munitions from North Korea.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-18-2023
—
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-19-2023
“River Crossings, ATACMS, Cauldrons, Stalled Breaches: Ukraine's Battlefield Tips Into A New Phase.” - RFERL
“Ukrainian War Costs Forces Moscow to Slash Funding for New Icebreakers.” - Window on Eurasia
“How the next generation of Russian history teachers is preparing to teach a reimagined past.” - Meduza
“Report: North Korea Shipping Ammunition, Weaponry 'At Scale' To Russia.” - RFERL
“Khodorkovsky Argues Ukraine War Is Taxing Putin's Hold On Power.” - RFERL
“War crimes are part of the Russian playbook.” - Washington Post
“Nothing can save Vladimir Putin’s Russia now.” - The Telegraph
Putin Is Being Told ‘Everything is Going to Plan’
(Kyiv Post)
“Ukrainian intelligence spokesperson Andriy Yusov said anyone who told the Russian President the real situation on the front line would face being sacked – or worse.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/22955
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